Hot-Stove: Rays Avoid Arbitration with Eight Players, Sign Five to Minor League Deals

(Photo courtesy of Carrie Boarman/TireBall)
(Photo courtesy of Carrie Boarman/TireBall)

Heading the January 16th arbitration deadline, Tampa Bay had eight arbitration eligible players they hadn’t reached an agreement with, and until 1:00 PM to sign a deal, or settle in court. As I reported earlier on Tumblr, the Rays were able to avoid arbitration this afternoon with those players — John Jaso, Kevin Jepsen, Jake McGee, Logan Forsythe, Desmond Jennings, Rene Rivera, Alex Cobb, and Drew Smyly.

Here are how things panned out.

Desmond Jennings: projected $3.2 M, actual $3.1M

Kevin Jepsen: projected $2.6 M, actual $3.025 M

John Jaso: projected $3.3 M, actual $3.175 M

Jake McGee: projected $3.8 M, actual $3.55 M (plus a performance bonus)

Alex Cobb: projected $4.5 M, actual $4.0 M

Rene Rivera: projected $1.3 M, actual $1.2 M (he can make up to $200,000 more in incentives based on games started at C)

Logan Forsythe: projected $1.2 M, actual $1.1 M (plus a $25k performance bonus for reaching 400 PA)

Drew Smyly: projected $3 M, actual $2.65 M (with an additional $50k available based on games started)

Projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.

This marks the third consecutive year the team hasn’t had to go to court to reach an agreement. It should be noted, the front office has had considerable success during those cases, going undefeated under the ownership of Stu Sternberg.

In other news, the Rays also announced/confirmed minor-league deals with five players — C Mayo Acosta, OF Joey Butler, INF Juan Francisco, RHP Jhan Mariñez, and LHP Everett Teaford. All five received invitations to Spring Training.

What follows is the official press release from the Rays,

The Rays have signed five players to minor league contracts, each with an invitation to major league spring training: catcher Mayo Acosta, outfielder Joey Butler, infielder Juan Francisco, right-handed pitcher Jhan Mariñez and left-handed pitcher Everett Teaford.

Acosta, 27, has thrown out 39.9 percent (183-of-459) of attempted base stealers in his eight-year minor league career. He spent the 2014 season with Triple-A Durham, appearing in 30 games. He played in 28 games for Toros del Este of the Dominican Winter League, throwing out 10 of 20 attempted base stealers.

Butler, 28, has spent parts of the last two seasons in the major leagues, appearing in a combined 14 games with the St. Louis Cardinals (2014) and Texas Rangers (2013). In 2014, he hit .360 (31-for-86) with four home runs and 20 RBI in 31 games for Triple-A Memphis, appeared in six games with the Cardinals and had his contract sold to the Orix Buffaloes of the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball League. In seven career minor league seasons, he owns a .293 batting average, .379 on-base percentage, 76 home runs and 375 RBI.

Francisco, 27, hit .220 (63-for-287) with 16 home runs, 43 RBI and a career-high .456 slugging percentage in 106 games with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. He hit a home run every 17.9 at-bats, which ranked 12th in the AL among players with at least 250 at-bats. The left-handed batter made 75 of his 82 starts against right-handed pitching, hitting .238 (58-for-244) with a .306 on-base percentage and 15 homers against righties. Francisco is a career .248/.310/.476 hitter with 47 home runs against right-handers, compared to .159/.213/.210 with one homer against left-handers. Over parts of six major league seasons, he has hit .236 with 48 home runs and 152 RBI.

Mariñez, 26, has made six appearances at the major league level with the Chicago White Sox (2012) and Florida Marlins (2010). He split the 2014 season between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers organization, going a combined 8-3 with a 6.69 ERA (40.1-IP, 30-ER) and 46 strikeouts between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Over parts of nine minor league seasons, he is 24-24 with a 4.36 ERA and has averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Teaford, 30, has spent parts of three seasons (2011-13) in the major leagues with theKansas City Royals, going 3-5 with a 4.25 ERA (106-IP, 50-ER) in 45 appearances (eight starts). He played for Korea’s LG Twins in 2014, going 5-6 with a 5.24 ERA (99.2-IP, 58-ER) in 20 games (19 starts). In nine minor league seasons in the Royals organization, he went 59-41 with a 3.96 ERA in 199 appearances (138 starts).

 

Hot-Stove: Cash Announces Candidates For Middle Infield Positions

Kevin Cash speaks to the media at the Rays Winter Development Program. (Photo courtesy of Kevin O'Donnell/FOX 13 Sports)
Kevin Cash speaks to the media at the Rays Winter Development Program. (Photo courtesy of Kevin O’Donnell/FOX 13 Sports)

A few interesting nuggets came out of the Rays Winter Development Program the last couple of days. First, we reported earlier that Matt Moore is eyeing a June return to the rotation. Rays skipper Kevin Cash also, maybe inadvertently, announced the candidates for the middle infield.

Cash indicated that Asdrubal Cabrera is expected to be an everyday player. While he didn’t mention where Cabrera would spend the bulk of his time, either at short or second, Cash was complimentary of Asdrubal, saying it would be “like pulling teeth” to remove him from the lineup. Cash continued, calling Cabrera (“Cabby”) a positive veteran presence on the team and in the clubhouse.

He also narrowed down the competition for the other middle infield spot to Nick Franklin, Logan Forsythe and Tim Beckham. Franklin is expected to make the roster regardless of the position, leaving Forsythe and Beckham to battle it out for the middle-infield-platoon and bench spots. Boding in Forsythe’s favor, his defensive range which pairs well with that of Franklin.

Beckham, 25 (at the end of January), is a name we’ve bandied about as bench depth for a while. With the exception of six games at the end of the 2014 season, the Rays former number one overall pick hasn’t any big league experience. Beckham has also been a source of frustration for many since, he’s never really posted impressive numbers…Not to mention the 50-game drug suspension he served last season for the use of marijuana. Cash was quick to note that Beckham — along with Franklin and Forsythe — is viewed as an interchangeable part who offers the Rays “flexibility.”

Interestingly enough, Hak-Ju Lee was left off the list, though it fails to be seen whether that was an oversight on the part of Cash, or not. Lee was a top prospect who suffered a devastating knee injury in 2013. And while he recovered enough to play the following season, Lee wasn’t the same player. He seemed to lag behind at his position, something that could be construed as an affect of a slow recovery, or a general lack of confidence in his capabilities.

It should be noted, both Tim Beckham and Hak-Ju Lee are projected similarly in 2015.

You can hear sound clips of the Kevin Cash interview below, courtesy of Steve Kinsella.

 

Matt Moore Eyeing June Return

(Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Charles Cherney)
(Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Charles Cherney)

After spending most of the 2014 season recuperating from Tommy John’s Surgery, Rays’ southpaw Matt Moore told the media he’s hoping for a June return. Moore mentioned he “feels good,”  and has thrown on and off for the past three months.

[youtube_sc url=”http://youtu.be/I0HhZkyhUEU”]

After throwing on flat ground — maxing out at a distance of 110 feet — Moore is expected to progress toward throwing off the mound in the next few weeks. He will also toss another session Friday, four times next week, and one to two times the following week in order to re-acclimate to the five day rotation schedule — ultimately eyeing a return in June if all goes as planned.

 

Hot-Stove: Analyzing the Ben Zobrist/Yunel Escobar Trade

(Photo courtesy of www.theplayoffs.com)
(Photo courtesy of www.theplayoffs.com)

A day after the big trade of Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar, I’m still stunned and somewhat taken aback. I’ll admit it, part of my despair is based completely on sentimentality — Ben Zobrist is my favorite baseball player. Don’t get me wrong, I knew one of the two was destined for the trade block after Tampa Bay signed free-agent middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. However, I certainly wasn’t prepared for a deal like this.

Truth be told, a trade involving one of the most beloved players in franchise history is a difficult pill to swallow. Tack on another pillar of the Rays middle infield, and one thing becomes abundantly clear — Tampa Bay gave up an awful lot on this fateful January day. Nevertheless, in order to properly analyze the deal with Billy Beane’s Athletics, emotion and sentimentality have to be pushed to the side.

The question du jour becomes this; Did the Rays receive enough in return? Let’s take a look.

Zobrist and Escobar’s Surplus Value

First, the return in the deal is former Rays C/DH John Jaso, $1.5M in cash considerations, and two prospects; INF Daniel Robertson and OF Boog Powell.

Next, we need to look at the player’s surplus value by means of wins above replacement (WAR). In layman’s terms WAR combines a players total contributions to a team at the plate, on the base paths, and in the field. If a player is projected for one win above replacement, he should be able to help his team win one more game than an available replacement player — be that a player on the bench or Triple-A. As Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) put it, “A 3-WAR player is a high-quality starter. A 5-WAR player is an all-star. Anything above that and you’re getting into the MVP discussion.”

Zobrist hasn’t performed below 3.7 WAR since 2010 and is projected for a 4.2 WAR in 2015. Though Escobar performed at an all-time low last season (as far as WAR is concerned), he has boasted plus value since breaking into the league in 2007. When looking at their combined projected WAR value (per Steamer) you’re looking at a pair of players who should help the A’s win six more games than a replacement player, or players, in 2015.

In an excellent piece for Beyond the Box Score, Lewie Pollis writes that a win costs $7 million.

With that in mind, when you multiply Zobrist and Escobar’s projected 6 WAR by $7MM, the duo are worth somewhere in the ballpark of $42M — $29.4M for Ben, and $12.6M for Yunel. Subtract $12.5M owed to the pair by Oakland, and they have a combined surplus value of $29.5M ($21.9 for Zobrist and $7.6 for Escobar).

Malinowski projects a higher surplus value for Escobar,

If we think Escobar will be good for 550 plate appearances, that becomes 1.8 WAR in 2015. Escobar will be paid $5 million this year, and then is owed $7 million for 2016 with another $7 million team option for 2017.

Assuming a 10% decline (something arbitrary I’m inserting) in each season beyond 2015, and that surplus value in each future seasons is worth 8% less than it is right now (the number used by Victor Wang), we arrive at a surplus value for Escobar of $14 million.

For the sake of argument, let’s split the difference and say Escobar has a surplus value of $10.8M, bringing the combined surplus to around $33M, or $32.7M to be exact.

Jaso, Roberston, and Powell’s Surplus Value

Let’s start with John Jaso, since he will have an immediate impact on the Rays.

John Jaso

Jaso was productive at the plate for both the Mariners and Athletics following the 2012 trade from the Rays, posting wOBA of .372, .345, and .339 from the 2012 to 2014 seasons. The newest former Ray figures to spend the majority of his playing time as the DH — platooning with David DeJesus, and catching behind Rene Rivera. He may spend time at first base and in the outfield as well. Despite the health concerns associated with Jaso, thanks to a concussion in 2014, Steamer projects he will produce 1.5 WAR in 407-450 at-bats for a total value of $10.5M. Subtracting the $3.3M he is projected to make in this, his last arbitration season, Jaso is worth $7.2M in surplus value.

Daniel Robertson

Matt Silverman and the Rays are very high on Daniel Robertson — the Athletics former number one prospect,

“Robertson is the lead piece in this transaction,” Silverman said. “It takes a large trade like this for us to be able to acquire someone of his talents.”

According to Ben Badler (Baseball America), Robertson is a top-tier prospect, ranked in the top 50.

Evaluating his value is a bit harder since he’s a prospect. Kevin Creagh (Pirates Prospects) studied the subject, finding that a prospect in the 26-50 tier holds a surplus value of $18.12M. Creagh’s contemporary Victor Wang came up with a different surplus value for a similarly tiered player — $23.4M. If we take an average of those two values, Robertson’s estimated value over the span of his team controlled years is $20.8M.

Boog Powell

Boog Powell isn’t a top 100 prospect according to Baseball America, though he posed some outrageous numbers in Class-A ball last year, posting a .451 OBP in 83 games. …That is before getting suspended for amphetamine use. Powell is now considered one of the Rays top-30 prospects, and figures to start the year with Class-A Charlotte. Powell’s surplus value is around $1.5M if not lower — taking the fact that he doesn’t rank in the top 100 into account, while giving him the benefit of $1.5M surplus value.

Conclusion

As it stands, the Rays traded away $32.7M to Oakland for $29.5M in return — an approximate $3.2M loss for the Rays ($4.7M if you consider Powell to be a replacement level player, thus worth nothing in surplus value).

As Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs) wrote of the Rays presumed reasons to move Zobrist now,

Zobrist is 33 years old. He hasn’t hit for power since 2012. This is his final year of team control.

Sullivan continued,

You never want to trade a Ben Zobrist, but the Rays knew they were going to, and they found appropriate value.

I contend, they found what they considered to be the appropriate value.

In the end Jaso is a Ray again, which could be good if he puts together a better-than-projected campaign in 2015. And yes, Silverman shored up the Rays future by acquiring a top prospect. Yet I still can’t help but feel let down by this trade overall, a feeling shared with many of you.

Source: Stats and projections via FanGraphs.

Noteworthiness

  • Analytics aside, as much as I miss players like David Price and Carl Crawford, this move hurts. Sure the Sun will still rise tomorrow, and my personal life hasn’t been effected, but a part of me feels unsettled by the trade. Zobrist represented everything right about professional baseball, and he’s truly an ambassador for the game. Zobrist told the Tampa Bay Times’ Matt Baker, “I was hoping that I would be able to stay in Tampa Bay for at least this year. I understand, of course, their perspective in trying to get some younger guys and fill some other holes. Obviously I understand the baseball side of it. It’s tough, but I’m thankful for all my time I was able to spend there. It was just a blessed time for our family. It’s a special season of our life that has just come to a close.“ Zobrist has mixed emotions about changing franchises, mentioning in the same article, “I think it’ll be fun to get to know new teammates and new fans and a new situation in Oakland. It’ll be exciting. But part of my heart is still stuck in Tampa Bay right now. It’ll take a little bit for me to move on.“

    • Hot-Stove: Rays Trade Ben Zobrist to Athletics with Yunel Escobar (Updated)

    Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist have been traded to the Athletics.
    Matt Silverman and the Rays have traded Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist to the Athletics.

    The Rays officially announced that they have traded starting middle infielders, Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar, to the West Coast Rays — the Oakland Athletics.

    Additionally, the Rays formally announced the acquisition of INF Asdrubal Cabrera, who signed a one year, $7.5M contract. As we opined a week back (when news of the Cabrera deal originally broke), the acquisition only made sense if either Zobrist or Escobar were to be dealt elsewhere. Suffice it to say, no one expected Silverman to deal both Zobrist and Escobar.

    According to Ken Rosenthal, who earlier retweeted Susan Slusser’s initial account of the trade, both players have been (rather at that point, were to be) moved to Oakland:

    You may recall, the A’s claimed Yunel Escobar on revokable trade waivers last fall, but he requested to not be traded, preferring to stay with the Rays. It should now be assumed that Asdrubal Cabrera will be Tampa Bay’s primary short-stop, while Nick Franklin and Logan Forsythe will platoon second base. I’d also imagine the deal creates space for middle infielder Tim Beckham.

    In return, Tampa Bay acquired former Rays catcher John Jaso, Athletics top SS prospect Daniel Robertson, and A-ball outfielder Boog Powell. According to MLB.com, Roberston was rated number one among Athletics prospects, and Powell 11. Jaso, who is no stranger to playing DH, will more than likely platoon that position and catcher.

    Matt Silverman released a statement on the move — more specifically, on Ben Zobrist,

    An emotional and meaningful day as we bid farewell to Ben Zobrist and thank him for everything he’s meant to the Rays. Any description of his value, talent and character would understate how we feel about Ben, and we consider ourselves fortunate for all our great moments together.

    Noteworthiness

  • My initial thoughts on the move: To be clear, this is a payroll dump of Escobar, and that part of the trade was warranted. Also, I get why Zobrist was traded — though I don’t have to like it. Both moves, on their own, make sense. Paired together though, I just don’t know. From a depth point of view I get it — Nick Franklin and Logan Forsythe can handle second, and it would be reasonable to assume the Rays will call up Tim Beckham as depth at short stop. Too, Jaso has some pop which is a plus. But, I can’t help but feel Tampa Bay now needs two consistent bats in the lineup; one to now compensate for the loss of Zobrist — which could be Jaso, I’d reckon — and another because they needed one all along.