Joe Maddon Archives - X-Rays Spex

The New What Next: Cubs vs Giants — an NLDS preview

October 7, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Ben Zobrist quietly put together his best season since 2012. (Photo Credit: Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

When the Rays aren’t in the playoffs, my focus shifts to one ball club that is. This season is no different, and my focus is firmly on an old National League standby, the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies had been my favorite team until 1998 when the Devil Rays took to the confines of Tropicana Field, at which point they became my NL team. The Cubs and handful of old friends — namely Ben Zobrist, Jason Hammel, Joe Maddon and Dave Martinez — are ready to butt heads with the cowboy, Bruce Bochy, and his San Francisco Giants.

Against the NL, Chicago ranked second in OPS against LHP (.267 BA/.357 OBP/.449 SLG/.806 OPS) and fourth against RHP (.252 BA/.338 OBP/.421 SLG/.759 OPS), first in walks (656) and fifth in homers (199). Kris Bryant (.292 BA/.385 OBP/.554 SLG/39 HR) and Anthony Rizzo (.292 BA/.385 OBP/.544 SLG/32 HR) are the biggest offensive threats in the Cubs lineup, although the team boasts above-average production at almost every spot except right field, catcher, and short (with Addison Russell being league average and third on the team in homers). As with the Rays, when Maddon was at the helm, Chicago has a lot of roster flexibility, with Bryant, Ben Zobrist, and Chris Coghlan sometimes in the outfield instead of Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez or Tommy La Stella at third.

The Giants are ranked ninth in scoring (average of 4.41 runs per game) and OPS+ (94), and they really aren’t a powerful team — ranked 13th in homers (130), including just 55 at home. Unlike the Cubs, San Francisco doesn’t have a single player with 20 homers to his name. Still the Giants were solid against right handed pitching (.737 OPS), but less so against southpaws (.703 OPS). Despite uneven production from Buster Posey, Joe Panik, and Hunter Pence, there aren’t many places for opposing pitchers to hide.

They posted just two months above .500: May when they went 21–8, and June when they went 17–10. But even in their dismal second half San Francisco outscored opponents by nine runs. The Giants won seven of their last 10 games, allowing them to eke out a Wildcard berth on the last day of the season.

Much of Chicago’s success comes from an excellent starting rotation. As Jay Jaffe (Sports Illustrated) wrote,

The Cubs had the majors’ stingiest rotation, with a 2.96 ERA; the jump to the next-lowest team in the NL (the Nationals at 3.60) is almost as big as that from second to sixth (the Marlins’ 4.32). The NL had 13 starters who qualified for the ERA title while preventing runs at a clip that was 15% better than average; the aforementioned Cubs’ front four all fit that description, with the Mets, Giants and Nationals as the only other teams with two. The story is similar when it comes to strikeout rates of at least 7.88 per nine (league average): The Cubs have four of the 16 qualified starters, and the Giants and Nationals are the only other teams with two. Oh, and the Cubs’ rotation also threw more innings than any NL team (989) and was the only one with a quartet of 180-inning studs.

The Cubs also are masters at preventing runs — 0.35 per game fewer than any other NL team— thanks to a defense whose +95 DRS ranked first in the league by 36 runs. Jaffe also noted Chicago’s .728 defensive efficiency was 26 points higher than the second-ranked team, the Giants. Via Baseball Prospectus’ Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Cubs’ 6.38% above average is the all-time record, outdoing the 2001 Mariners’ 5.54%.

Bochy potentially will lean on Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto in the first two games of the series, then Madison Bumgarner and Matt Moore in the third and fourth contests. MattyMoe pitched brilliantly against the Dodgers in the final game of the season, although he has been erratic with both Tampa Bay and San Francisco this season, making him a league-average starter. With the exceptions of Jason Heyward and Miguel Montero, the Cubs tend beat up left handed pitching. After Bumgarner, Moore could seem like a walk in the park.

The bullpen has been the biggest weak spot for San Francisco, as the Giants led the league with 32 blown saves this season. They lost nine games in which the Giants led in the ninth inning, including five in September and October. Because of it former closer Santiago Casilla lost his job to Sergio Romo. The ‘pen was able to lower its ERA and FIP in the second half (3.35 ERA and 3.62 FIP, previously 3.94 ERA and 3.93 FIP in the first half), but the overall 3.66 ERA and 3.78 FIP are the highest of any NL contending team.

The New What Next: Rays vs ChiSox — a series preview

September 26, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays tied the game in the eighth, yet lost in the 10th of Sunday’s home season finale against the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays take to the show on the road to cap the season; first stop Chicago, where they’ll face the White Sox over the next four days. If they can win just one game over the final seven days, they will earn Kevin Cash a better record in his second full year as manager, than Joe Maddon in his sophomore season.

Tampa Bay was swept in three games over the weekend by the Boston Red Sox, losing by a combined four runs to finish their home schedule. The Rays, who struck out 23 times in the home finale, held the Red Sox to 11 total runs, yet plated just seven for an average of 2.33 runs per game.

The White Sox knocked off the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians over the last two contests — capped by a 3-0 shutout on Sunday.

Cash will lean on Drew Smyly (7-11, 4.86 ERA), Alex Cobb (1-1, 6.16 ERA), Blake Snell (6-8, 3.65 ERA), and Chris Archer (8-19, 4.02 ERA) over the next four days. Robin Ventura will counter with James Shields (5-18, 5.98 ERA), Chris Sale (16-9, 3.19 ERA), Miguel González (4-8, 3.98 ERA), and José Quintana (13-11, 3.21 ERA).

Rays Series Starters

Smyly hurled six innings of one run ball on Tuesday, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out three. The lefty turned in an 87 pitch outing, and could have worked his way through the seventh. Instead, the Rays skipper turned the game over to Brad Boxberger, who razed the potential win into a loss for the team. Still, Tuesday’s performance earned the southpaw his first quality start in his last four outings, lowing his ERA to 4.86 — its lowest mark since August 26.

Cobb was roughed up Wednesday, lasting just 1-1/3 innings and giving up seven runs on nine hits and a walk. The righty had been pitching well in his return from Tommy John surgery, maintaining a 3.06 ERA over three starts before Wednesday. The outing more than doubled Cobb’s ERA to an unsightly 6.16.

Snell shut down the Yankees over five frames on Thursday, working around five hits and three walks while fanning six. The outing was representative of Snell’s season — the lefty has allowed a lot of baserunners, but has effectively limited the damage, allowing him to post a 3.65 ERA. His 94 strikeouts in 86-1/3 innings speak to his ace potential, however, he needs to cut down on his walks and become more efficient in order to sustain this success over the long haul.

Archer relinquished a pair of earned runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings on Friday, striking out seven. The Rays ace once again posted a quality start, yet collected another tally in the loss column. Archer notched 14 whiffs and collected 20-of-27 first-pitch strikes, but he was doomed by a lack of run support. He’s lowered his ERA by 64 points (4.66 ERA to 4.02 ERA) since the All-Star Break.

White Sox Series Starters

Shields allowed seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks while fanning four over 5-1/3 innings on Tuesday. The former Ray turned in a dud against the Phillies, one of the worst offenses in baseball. Still Shields is 2-0 with a 2.09 ERA in two starts against his former team. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (1-2, 2B), Brad Miller (3-7, HR, RBI, BB), Alexei Ramirez (23-68, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB)

Sale suffered an embarrassing loss against the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing six runs on seven hits while striking out five over four innings. Wednesday marked the Southpaw’s second-shortest outing, and most humiliating performance, of 2016. Sale pitched at least eight innings in each of his previous five starts, owning a 1.50 ERA while striking out 50 over 42 innings. The southpaw is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Rays. Key matchup: Mikie Mahtook (HR, RBI)

Gonzalez allowed three runs on six hits while fanning two over seven innings on Saturday. The 32-year-old journeyman has now thrown nine consecutive quality (extending back to July 1), not including a mid-August outing in which he left after the first inning due to a groin injury. His second-half ERA now is 2.96, thanks to improved command and control resulting in a decreased walk rate from (9.0% to 4.2%). Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-3, HR, RBI), Logan Forsythe (3-12, 2B, BB), Alexei Ramirez (2-7, 2B, BB)

Quintana hurled six innings of one run ball on Saturday, walking three and striking out two. The southpaw settled in for his second win against Cleveland in the past 11 days, as he pitched out of a pair of early jams — relinquishing just one run — while throwing an inefficient 53 pitches, and loading the bases twice. Quintana is on track to post his lowest ERA in his career, as it currently sits at 3.21 over 202 total innings of work. He allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits in a loss to the Rays on April 17th. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (5-8, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-8, 2B), Evan Longoria (4-11)

Noteworthiness

— Evan Longoria has 169 hits on the season, needing just one more to set a career high. He also is five away from his first 100-RBI season since 2010.

— The Rays are 7-2 against the White Sox since the start of the 2015 season after taking two of three at home in April.

— Kevin Kiermaier suffered a bruised left wrist when he was hit by a pitch on Sunday. He is listed as day-to-day.

— Todd Frazier needs one homer and four RBI to become the sixth Chicago player to put up a 40-homer/100-RBI season. He is 14-34 with three homes and six RBI during a nine-game hitting streak.

Rays 5/3/16 starting lineup, etc

May 3, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

(Photo Credit: Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

Noteworthiness

― Jason Hanselman (The Process Report) did a wonderful job in detailing the Rays, who are drunk on swinging the bat at seemingly everything. While we put together our April status report, give this a read.

― Piggy backing on that, we analyzed the K% of the Rays’ regulars.

― Don’t forget to read our Rays/Dodgers series preview. Make it a two’fer if you already have.

Hot-Stove: Why a Rays/Cubs trade still makes sense

January 14, 2016 By j.j. diaz Leave a Comment

Jake McGee: Trade candidate? (Photo Credit: Darren McCollester)

After a few thrifty swaps and a quiet winter meetings. The Rays may finally be ready to move some of their “valuable” commodities.

With young starting pitchers being highly coveted these days, the Rays find themselves sitting on a gold mine of young arms. With Blake Snell waiting in the wings and the revitalization of Erasmo Ramirez, it would seem that the Rays have a logjam and should seek to upgrade their offense which in recent years has been inept. Especially with runners in scoring position.

The Chicago Cubs seem to be the team most likely to strike a deal with the Rays. The Cubs are looking for another starter and a left handed arm out of the pen. With only 2 years remaining on Alex Cobb and Jake McGee’s contract, moving one or both of them makes sense. Jake Odorizzi’s had also been linked to trade rumors involving the Cubs and Dodgers prior to the signing of John Lackey and Scott Kazmir.

Some of the trade possibilities are explored in an article by Phil Rogers (MLB.com/@philgrogers).

Among the names mentioned the Cubs would move to acquire one of our young arms are; versatile outfielder Chris Coghlan, INF Javier Baez, OF Jorge Soler, C/DH Wilson Contreras, slugging C/OF Kyle Schawrber and #2 prospect Billy McKinney. Any one of these players could provide a boost to an offense that desperately needs run production.

The main question for the Rays is how much would they be willing to give up in exchange for one of the aforementioned young sluggers?

Any trade involving Schwarber or Soler could involve rotation anchor and all-star Chris Archer. Would they Rays be willing to trade their top commodity for a chance at landing Schwarber or Soler? Probably not but either way both teams would benefit from doing business with each other especially with Joe Maddon’s connection to the Rays organization. McGee, Odorizzi and Cobb would be the likely candidates if a move were to take place.

According to an interview with Matt Silverman on Sirius XM MLB Network Radio. “I wouldn’t be surprised if something lined up over the next couple of years, just given the constitution of the clubs, but i don’t want to oversell anything”.

Either way there’s no denying the trade compatibility of these two teams. As spring training approaches, we’ll just have to wait and see as both teams look to improve moving into the ’16 season.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Angels — A Series Preview

May 31, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays kick off the month of June with a plus .500 record and — thanks to the Athletics (who beat the Yankees) — tied for first in the AL East. (Photo credit: the Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays made the 2,639 mile trek to Anaheim, CA after taking two-of-three from the Baltimore Orioles. Tampa Bay finds itself tied for first once more* after the team won a 9-5 slugfest with the O’s, thanks in part to right-fielder Steven Souza Jr., who hit three home runs in as many days. Souza has a team-leading 10 homers and was 5-12 with five RBI over the weekend.

For their part, the the Angels Angels moved to a season-high three games over .500 with Albert Pujols serving as the team’s primary DH. Pujols, who homered in three of his last four games, strained his groin during a ballgame Friday game and may not return to his normal position in this series.

The Rays are 16-8 at Angel Stadium since the start of the 2010 season, although they posted a lackluster 2-5 record last season with former skipper Joe Maddon at the helm. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay has outscored Anaheim 177-154 — a run differential of 23 — since 2010. It should be noted, thanks to a connection with the Angels organization, the Rays under Maddon used to be treated like royalty in Anaheim. Without that connection…egad, it might feel like an average, everyday ballgame.

*Typing those words just feels right.

Rays and Angels series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Angels offensive production over the last 14 days.

Rays by the numbers.

Garrett Richards: Richards yielded five runs (three earned) over 6-2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to San Diego. The 27 year-old has allowed more than three earned runs just once in eight starts. Richards, who is 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA in four home starts, owns a 1-1 mark and 5.40 ERA in two career outings against Tampa Bay. Key to Richards’ overall success is his ability to miss barrels. That ability is predicated on two things: he throws really hard, and being able to command the strike-zone. Consider this, the batter’s ability to pull Richards’ pitches dropped from 50% in 2011 to 37% last season (47% in 2013). Key matchup: David DeJesus (2-5, 2B, RBI, 2 BB).

CJ Wilson: Per Rotowire, Wilson gave up one run and two hits in six innings Thursday against the Tigers. He struck out seven and walked five. Wilson once dominated Tampa Bay, yet over the southpaw has fallen off over last three seasons, posting a 1-3 record with a 5.35 ERA in six starts. In all fairness to the Straight Edge Racer, no one in the lineup has owned Wilson, nor do the Rays have a favorable slash line against (.194 BA/.288 OBP/.271 SLG/.559 OPS). Key matchups: Jake Elmore (1-2, BB), Brandon Guyer (3-10, 2 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3).

Hector Santiago: Per Rotowire, Santiago (4-3) delivered 7.1 shutout innings in Friday’s win over the Tigers, striking out seven while allowing just three hits and three walks. Santiago boasts a unique eight pitch arsenal — a rarity in today’s game: a four seam fastball, two seam fastball, cutter, sinker, curve ball, slider, split finger and screwball. According to Fangraphs pitch value system, his most effective pitch has been his four-seam fastball, which averaged about 92 mph last season (maxing out at 97.4). Santiago’s other pitches were ranked slightly below average, with his slider and changeup being fairly ineffective. It should be noted, the 27 year-old lefty has a unique screwball that’s garnered a lot of attention:

Santiago’s screwball getting lots of attention. Hester: “Nnever seen anything like it. It’s a super slow changeup that goes the wrong way.”

— Alden Gonzalez (@Alden_Gonzalez) February 17, 2014

Key matchups: David DeJesus (1-1), Evan Longoria (3-3, 2B).

Noteworthiness

— Tampa Bay placed INF Tim Beckham on the 15-day disabled list with a right hamstring strain. The Rays corresponded by recalling Andrew Bellatti to take the open roster spot. Bellatti made 2 scoreless appearances in his first stint with the team, May 9-16. As for Beckham, he becomes the 15th different Rays to go on DL this season — the 17th move to DL overall.

— Alex Colome (3-1, 4.55 ERA) recovered from a 38-pitch first inning last Tuesday and received a no-decision after holding Seattle to two runs over 5-1/3 innings. The righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 career starts. Colome also owns a 22-to-5 K/BB ratio over 29-2/3 innings this season.

— Rays manager Kevin Cash said LHP Matt Moore’s bullpen session (on Sunday) went fine. Moore is scheduled to make his official rehab start on Wednesday for the Class-A Stone Crabs, starting his 30-day clock to return.

— Per Marc Topkin, OF Desmond Jennings (left knee) took some swings in an extended spring game on Monday but manager Kevin Cash said it only went “okay,” that he “still felt something.” Cash said there alsso was progress with DH/OF John Jaso (bruised left wrist), who started swinging a bat.