X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays remain optimistic, Cubs fans turn the Trop into Wrigley south, and roster moves

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The quiet before the rather tepid offensive storm Tuesday night. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After a 2-1 loss to the reigning World Series champions on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to rebound and split the short two-game set, and the season series, with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have won seven straight, while the Rays have won just one game in each of the last three series. They would need to go 8-3 over the final 11 games to finish at .500, while their postseason hopes are all but nonexistent at this point.

Optimism will make you suffer fools gladly.
I’m holding out for you to do the right thing,
Emphatically.

— American Steel

In spite of the monumental odds against them, Rays’ players, like Blake Snell and Steven Souza Jr., remain optimistic that they can salvage the season. Optimism is an intoxicating drug.

I feel all of us still think there’s a shot, said Snell. We all want to do it. We’re all in this together. We always felt there was a shot from the start and all the way to the end.

Souza was a bit more realistic:

We’re running out of time.

Of course Tampa Bay’s playoffs chances have all but evaporated — they start the day five games out of the final Wilcard spot with just 12 games left to play. It certainly doesn’t help that the offense has been all but nonexistent in three of the last four games.

What also doesn’t help, which Chris Archer pointed out last night, is the glaring lack of support from the Rays’ loyal fanbase.

Having 25,000 Cub fans here, wasn’t very fun either.

It’s weird, I didn’t know we had that many mid-western people in Tampa, but I guess we do. It’s just weird for their players to come out and get announced and just get so much love.

It felt like we were at Citi Field, playing the Yankees. Honestly, it felt very similar to that…and I’m not being critical it was just crazy how much royal blue there was out there.

When Wilson Contreras ran out to warm up the pitcher…like he got a standing o.

I’ve been here for however long, I’ve seen some really, really good players come and I’ve never seen anybody get as much love when they go to warm up then some of their players did.

It was definitely more of a road environment as opposed to a home environment tonight.

Granted there are myriad reasons why Rays’ fans skipped out of Tuesday night’s ball game. Although in all fairness, if that was just the second largest crowd of the season, that’s pretty sad. It is clearly evident that there is stadium saga induced PTSD which has affected the attendance all season long. Pair that with an ownership that apparently does not possess the want or the desire to stop being cheap, and start spending money to compete.

The effect on the players has become palpable, and now they — by way of the more vocal players, like Chris Archer — are letting us know how the lack of fans impacts the collective psyche of the team. If we fans want to see a diminished presence from the visiting team’s fan base, then it is up to all of us to purchase those tickets and plant our bottoms into those seats first and foremost.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/20/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza Jr. RF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Puello DH
Miller 2B
Bourjos LF
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays added two players to the roster this afternoon. INF Daniel Robertson will rejoin the Rays, as will RHP Chih-Wei Hu. Additionally, Xavier Cedeno will be activated from the 60-day DL, after rehabbing with Durham. A corresponding move will need to be made to make room for Cedeno.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Cubs — an Interleague series preview

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Chris Archer will take the mound for the Rays on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays welcome Joe Maddon and the Chicago Cubs into Tropicana Field, where they will start a two-game Interleague series on Tuesday. Hanging on by a thread of a 0.5% chance of a playoff berth, the Rays salvaged the final game of the series against the Red Sox on Sunday, while the Cubs are in the midst of a six-game win streak.

(Stats: ESPN)

I liken the Rays playoff pursuit to those that purchase lottery tickets and expect a large windfall. While there is a statistical probability that you or I could walk away with the jackpot, the likelihood of that happening is a one in 175 million chance (a .0000005714286% chance). Those are pretty astronomical odds.

Likewise, it would take a lot for the Rays to punch their proverbial postseason ticket over the next 12 games. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not so much. Suffice it to say these are must win games, and whatever the case it all starts Tuesday.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

To put it bluntly, with a 5.30 ERA over the last 14 days, if there is any hope of the Rays taking the series against the reigning World Series champs, two things must occur:

  1. Chris Archer, who has performed to a 4.26 ERA/3.74 FIP in the second half, MUST pitch well in the series opener (Blake Snell on Wednesday too).
  2. It is incumbent upon Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson and Lucas Duda to slip out of their individual (well, combined) funks.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days Kevin Cash will lean on the aforementioned Chris Archer (9-10, 4.06 ERA, 3.36 FIP) and Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP). Joe Maddon will counter with former Rays farm-hand Mike Montgomery (4-5, 4.62 ERA, 4.05 FIP), and Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer allowed three runs over four innings on Wednesday against the Yankees, and taking the loss in doing so. The right-hander has struggled in two starts since his return from a bout with forearm tightness, allowing nine earned runs on 15 hits over seven innings, although the Rays have not indicated that that is still an issue. Archer is 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 post-All-Star break starts; he beat he Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 4 when he allowed three runs over six innings.

Montgomery, the Rays former left-handed farm-hand, returned to the Cubs rotation after bouncing back and forth, to and from the bullpen. Montgomery is 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 starts. The left-handed 93 mph sinker/92mph four-seam fastball/78mph curveball throwing hurler os 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA in four appearances (one start) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (1-3, 3B)

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— The Cubs have eight players and coaches who spent time in Devil Rays/Rays uniforms: Chris Bosio (pitching coach), Wade Davis (RHP), Eric Hinske (assistant hitting coach), Joe Maddon (manager), Dave Martinez (bench coach), Mike Montgomery (LHP), Rene Rivera (C), Ben Zobrist (INF/OF).

— Wednesday’s first pitch will be thrown out by Beau Zimmer, the grandson of Don Zimmer, who had extensive connections between both ball clubs.

— The Rays are expected to have a video tribute to their former manager at some point during the upcoming series, be that Tuesday or Wednesday.

— Evan Longoria and Kahwa Coffee are teaming up for a “brand collaboration” to help Hurricane Irma relief efforts. More details will be announced Tuesday.

LBWMF: Tampa Bay Rays take down Joe Maddon’s Cubs, 6-5

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42,046 people crammed into the Friendly Confines on Tuesday to watch the Rays beat the Cubs, 6-5. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

It was a win that almost wasn’t. The Tampa Bay Rays scored five times in the fourth inning, yet with a three-run cushion to play with, the wheels fell off of Alex Colome, who made the game much closer than it needed to be. The Rays, who now sit three-games over .500 and tied for the last AL Wildcard spot, walked away from Wrigley with a nail biter of a win over the Cubs, 6-5.


Source: FanGraphs

Chicago took a short lived lead in the second inning after Ian Happ tripled to right off the glove of Steven Souza Jr., then scored on Jason Heyward’s single through a drawn-in infield.

Yet Tampa Bay immediately answered in the third against Jon Lester. Souza, in an obvious attempt to make up for the fielding gaffe that led to the above mentioned triple, reached on a leadoff bunt single, then swiped second as Corey Dickerson struck out. As the ensuing throw into second instead careened into centerfield, Souza made into third. Evan Longoria played the part of a good teammate by hitting a sacrifice-fly to center, tying the score.

An inning later, the Rays put together a five run go-ahead rally that began with Trevor Plouffe’s single to left. Tim Beckham followed with a two-run homer to left-center (his 11th) for a two-run lead. Next, Adeiny Hechavarria joined in on the BABIP fun, reaching on a single that deflected off Lester’s glove, and Peter Bourjos walked, putting two on for Chris Archer — who worked a good at-bat his first time up.

Try as he might, Archer was unable to get a bunt down, however, with two strikes against him and Anthony Rizzo breathing down his throat, Archer faked a bunt then singled to right through the drawn in infield, scoring Hechavarria for a three-run lead. Bourjos pulled into third on the hit, and Archer into second on the throw. Finally, Souza capped the rally with a hustle double that also deflected off Lester’s glove and into right-center, giving the Rays a comfortable lead.

Rays score five in the 4th

Tim Beckham clubs a two-run homer, Chris Archer plates his first run on his first hit and Steven Souza Jr. rips a two-run double in the 4th

It was still early on, and Chicago started its comeback with a two-out rally in the fifth against Archer, who followed the script of a pitcher that’s posted a .326 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SLG/.950 OPS/.403 wOBA the third time through the order to a T.

John Jay laid down a surprise bunt single that Longoria rushed to field, and subsequently threw up the right field line, past Plouffe at first, allowing Jay to make it safely into third. Kris Bryant followed with an infield single through the hole at short, driving in a run. After Anthony Rizzo walked, Ben Zobrist doubled to right, edging the Cubs ever closer by three. Ian Happ struck out to end the frame.

Then in the sixth inning, Chicago put on the first two against Archer, on a walk and a bunt single, but the Rays’ ace came back to strike out the next three batters, ending his day at 6 IP/8 H/3 ER/3 BB/8 K/116 pitches (80 strikes) and with a 6-3 lead.

Brad Boxberger worked around a leadoff walk of Bryant in the seventh, collecting an efficient 15-pitch scoreless frame, while Tommy Hunter worked around a base hit for a scoreless eighth. In spite of the base hit, Hunter faced the minimum number of batter thanks to the dynamic duo of Bourjos and Beckham, which combined to cut down catcher Wilson Contreras as he attempted to stretch his base hit into a double.

Finally, El Coballo took the mound in the ninth to close things out. As he has been wont to do of late, Colome made things a little too interesting. Brett Phillips (DRaysBay) had an, erm…interesting take on Colome’s outing:

In the ninth, Alex Colome bent and nearly broke. I mean he really, really bent. Like one of those inflatable wiggly dudes in front of car dealerships. That kind of bent. Nothing was particularly hard hit, but Colome had trouble commanding the zone, walking Jon Jay and Ian Happ (the latter was down to his final strike). The Cubs struck back for two more runs and but the tying run in scoring position, but a Jason Heyward flyout put the game on ice. Colome collected the “save” and Archer the win, and the Rays win the first game of the short two-game series against the Maddons Cubs.

A win is a win, but not everything needs to be that tense or high-leverage. In nine of his 36 appearances, Colome hasn’t given up a hit, walk, or run. Colome also hasn’t given up a run in 22 times this season.

However, you have to go back to May 29th (vs Texas) for his last true clean appearance, and then back to the beginning of May for a stretch of seven consecutive scoreless appearances (May 1st – May 14th).

In short, El Coballo needs to step it up, or he will lose his job to Boxberger or Hunter … and the Rays may be better for it.

The New What Next

The Rays wrap up the series and an eight-game road Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Blake Snell (0-5, 5.36 ERA, 5.29 FIP) will get the start opposite of John Lackey (5-9, 5.24 ERA, 5.88 FIP).

Snell entered last Wednesday’s start against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4:1 K:BB in seven starts with the Durham Bulls, then exited with a less than stellar 1.20 K:BB after an abysmal return to the bigs. The southpaw allowed six runs while walking five on 98 pitches (42 balls). The skinny: after getting a handle on his control issues at Durham, Snell returned to the majors and once again couldn’t find the strike zone, issuing a season tying number of walks.

Lackey, who loses five mph on his fastball when he pitches with his mouth open, had trouble executing his pitches in his last outing against the Nationals, giving up eight runs over 5-1/3 innings. He also hasn’t had much success at home this season, going 1-4 record with a 5.13 ERA. Teams are batting .281 against him at Wrigley. Over 24 career starts against Tampa Bay, Lackey is 13-8, but with a 4.00 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (3-6, BB), Corey Dickerson (1-3, HR, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Evan Longoria (14-40, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (2-2, 2 2B), Mallex Smith (2-3, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/5/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Beckham 2B
Hechavarria SS
Sucre C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller went 1-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout playing second base last night for the Durham Bulls.

— Logan Morrison was not happy with Major League Baseball’s decision to invite two Yankees to participate in the Home Run Derby. While we’re on that subject, fuck this guy and ESPN:

I firmly believe that LoMo is in the right:

The New What Next: Rays vs Cubs — a series preview

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Next stop Chicago, where the Rays will take on the return reigning World Series champions on Tuesday and Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will start a two-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, in Chicago — a series that many Rays fans have been waiting for with baited breath. After all, the Cubs are the reigning World Series champs, and a certain someone, that we are all too familiar with, finds himself at the helm of a ball club that has struggled to stay around the .500 mark all season.

I will neither wax nostalgic about how my two favorite teams that are set to face one another, nor will I discuss my feelings about the Rays’ former skipper — both topics have been discussed at length on this site and others.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays missed a chance to sweep the Orioles on Sunday, as they were flat in 7-1 in the series finale in Baltimore. Tampa Bay finished Sunday’s ball game with just five hits, and no player had more than one. Jesus Sucre hit a solo homer to put the Rays on the board, while Steven Souza Jr. collected their other extra base, a double. They enter this series tied with the Twins and Royals for the second AL wild card slot.

The Cubs finished an 11 game road trip with a 5-6 record, and they avoided a sweep by the Reds, taking a 6-2 win Sunday afternoon. They aren’t quite the juggernaut they were a year ago. As compared to the rest of the National League, the North-Siders start the series ninth in the in runs scored per game (4.54), 14th in team batting average (.237), sixth in homers (107), seventh in starter’s ERA (4.54), and third in reliever’s ERA (3.31). Be that as it may, they had a solid showing in the finale against Cincinnati. Ian Happ scored two runs and plated four RBI on a pair of homers, while Javier Baez drove in a run; each had three hits for Chicago. Both Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo hit homers as well. Much like the Rays, Chicago hope to rev things up before the All-Star Break.

This will be the third time the Rays travel to the Friendly Confines, having gone 1-2 in 2003 (including the game when Sammy Sosa broke a bat filled with cork) and 2-1 in 2014. They’ll face one another again this season, in September, at the Trop.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (6-5, 3.92 ERA, 3.07 FIP) and Blake Snell (0-5, 5.36 ERA, 5.29 FIP). Joe Maddon will counter with Jon Lester (5-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.63 FIP) and John Lackey (5-9, 5.24 ERA, 5.88 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer posted a quality start on Thursday, yet came away with the loss. The right-hander allowed three runs on eight hits over six innings of work. Yet in spite of his overall record and peripherals, Archer entered that outing with a 3-3 record and 4.76 ERA over his previous eight outings. The right-hander continues to accrue strikeouts, sporting an elite 10.7 K/9 for the season, however, his game-to-game inconsistency belies that, as he’s now allowed four runs or more in five of his past nine outings. The right-hander has worked exactly six innings in his last four starts, and has gone seven innings or more in six of his 17 starts this season.

Lester, the first of two “old friends” the Rays will face this series, posted his fourth consecutive quality start in his last start, holding Washington to one run over six innings. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, five walks and 18 strikeouts over 19 innings in his last three starts, and 13-9 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP over 170 innings overall against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (6-16, 2B), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)

Snell entered last Wednesday’s start against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4:1 K:BB in seven starts with the Durham Bulls, then exited with a less than stellar 1.20 K:BB after an abysmal return to the bigs. The southpaw allowed six runs while walking five on 98 pitches (42 balls). The skinny: after getting a handle on his control issues at Durham, Snell returned to the majors and once again couldn’t find the strike zone, issuing a season tying number of walks.

Lackey, who loses five mph on his fastball when he pitches with his mouth open, had trouble executing his pitches in his last outing against the Nationals, giving up eight runs over 5-1/3 innings. He also hasn’t had much success at home this season, going 1-4 record with a 5.13 ERA. Teams are batting .281 against him at Wrigley. Over 24 career starts against Tampa Bay, Lackey is 13-8, but with a 4.00 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (3-6, BB), Corey Dickerson (1-3, HR, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Evan Longoria (14-40, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (2-2, 2 2B), Mallex Smith (2-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Some good news for backup catcher Jesus Sucre, who had a ball glance off his wrist area on Sunday. The injury has been diagnosed as a bruised wrist, and no roster moves have been planned or will be needed.

— Brad Miller had Monday off for the Charlotte Stone Crabs, as he works his way back from a groin injury. Miller, who has gone 3-11 with three doubles and a run in his rehab stint with the Stone Crabs, could return this weekend for the Boston series.

— Corey Dickerson was named a starter for the AL All-Star Team on Sunday as the DH. Logan Morrison is up against four others for the final vote, which concludes Thursday afternoon. Neither Dickerson nor Morrison is part of the Home Run Derby on Monday in Miami.

Rays roster moves; 6/28/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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Alex Cobb took a no-hitter into the seventh inning last night. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to make it two in a row after Alex Cobb flirted with a no hitter in last night’s extra innings 4-2 win against the Pirates.

Following the ball-game, the Rays made a handful of roster moves, adding left-handed pitchers Blake Snell and Adam Kolarek, while optioning LHP Jose Alvarado and RHP Austin Pruitt to Triple-A Durham.

Alvarado’s demotion, while not expected, was warranted as the southpaw had struggled since an impressive first month following his promotion from the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits. Alvarado gave up runs in five of his last six outings while taking three losses.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays didn’t have any obvious replacements, but are turning to Kolarek, who had been pitching well for them at Triple-A Durham, posting a 1.36 ERA for 33 innings over 31 games, allowing 26 hits and 12 walks with 29 strikeouts.

Kolarek spent time both in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He received a spring training invite from the Atlanta Braves, but was let go and ended up re-signing with Tampa Bay at the end of Spring Training. He initially spent time in the Mets organization, getting as far as Triple-A for two games four years ago.

When Kolarek makes his big league debut, he will become the eighth such player to do so for the Rays this season. Only the Cincinnati Reds have one more player that’s done the same.

To make room for Kolarek on the 40-man roster, the Rays moved CF Kevin Kiermaier from the 10-day to the 60-day DL.

Rays 6/28/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF,
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Ramos C
Beckham 2B
Hechavarria SS
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Blake Snell has the third worst first pitch strike percentage and the worst swing percentage (minimum 40 innings). It’ll be interesting to see how he improved during his stint with Durham.

— Speaking of Snell, you can read about tonight’s pitching matchup in our series preview.

— Former Rays skipper Joe Manager penned an editorial for the Tampa Bay Times, discussing what is time with the Rays meant to him