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A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Tampa Bay Rays take down Joe Maddon’s Cubs, 6-5

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42,046 people crammed into the Friendly Confines on Tuesday to watch the Rays beat the Cubs, 6-5. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

It was a win that almost wasn’t. The Tampa Bay Rays scored five times in the fourth inning, yet with a three-run cushion to play with, the wheels fell off of Alex Colome, who made the game much closer than it needed to be. The Rays, who now sit three-games over .500 and tied for the last AL Wildcard spot, walked away from Wrigley with a nail biter of a win over the Cubs, 6-5.


Source: FanGraphs

Chicago took a short lived lead in the second inning after Ian Happ tripled to right off the glove of Steven Souza Jr., then scored on Jason Heyward’s single through a drawn-in infield.

Yet Tampa Bay immediately answered in the third against Jon Lester. Souza, in an obvious attempt to make up for the fielding gaffe that led to the above mentioned triple, reached on a leadoff bunt single, then swiped second as Corey Dickerson struck out. As the ensuing throw into second instead careened into centerfield, Souza made into third. Evan Longoria played the part of a good teammate by hitting a sacrifice-fly to center, tying the score.

An inning later, the Rays put together a five run go-ahead rally that began with Trevor Plouffe’s single to left. Tim Beckham followed with a two-run homer to left-center (his 11th) for a two-run lead. Next, Adeiny Hechavarria joined in on the BABIP fun, reaching on a single that deflected off Lester’s glove, and Peter Bourjos walked, putting two on for Chris Archer — who worked a good at-bat his first time up.

Try as he might, Archer was unable to get a bunt down, however, with two strikes against him and Anthony Rizzo breathing down his throat, Archer faked a bunt then singled to right through the drawn in infield, scoring Hechavarria for a three-run lead. Bourjos pulled into third on the hit, and Archer into second on the throw. Finally, Souza capped the rally with a hustle double that also deflected off Lester’s glove and into right-center, giving the Rays a comfortable lead.

Rays score five in the 4th

Tim Beckham clubs a two-run homer, Chris Archer plates his first run on his first hit and Steven Souza Jr. rips a two-run double in the 4th

It was still early on, and Chicago started its comeback with a two-out rally in the fifth against Archer, who followed the script of a pitcher that’s posted a .326 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SLG/.950 OPS/.403 wOBA the third time through the order to a T.

John Jay laid down a surprise bunt single that Longoria rushed to field, and subsequently threw up the right field line, past Plouffe at first, allowing Jay to make it safely into third. Kris Bryant followed with an infield single through the hole at short, driving in a run. After Anthony Rizzo walked, Ben Zobrist doubled to right, edging the Cubs ever closer by three. Ian Happ struck out to end the frame.

Then in the sixth inning, Chicago put on the first two against Archer, on a walk and a bunt single, but the Rays’ ace came back to strike out the next three batters, ending his day at 6 IP/8 H/3 ER/3 BB/8 K/116 pitches (80 strikes) and with a 6-3 lead.

Brad Boxberger worked around a leadoff walk of Bryant in the seventh, collecting an efficient 15-pitch scoreless frame, while Tommy Hunter worked around a base hit for a scoreless eighth. In spite of the base hit, Hunter faced the minimum number of batter thanks to the dynamic duo of Bourjos and Beckham, which combined to cut down catcher Wilson Contreras as he attempted to stretch his base hit into a double.

Finally, El Coballo took the mound in the ninth to close things out. As he has been wont to do of late, Colome made things a little too interesting. Brett Phillips (DRaysBay) had an, erm…interesting take on Colome’s outing:

In the ninth, Alex Colome bent and nearly broke. I mean he really, really bent. Like one of those inflatable wiggly dudes in front of car dealerships. That kind of bent. Nothing was particularly hard hit, but Colome had trouble commanding the zone, walking Jon Jay and Ian Happ (the latter was down to his final strike). The Cubs struck back for two more runs and but the tying run in scoring position, but a Jason Heyward flyout put the game on ice. Colome collected the “save” and Archer the win, and the Rays win the first game of the short two-game series against the Maddons Cubs.

A win is a win, but not everything needs to be that tense or high-leverage. In nine of his 36 appearances, Colome hasn’t given up a hit, walk, or run. Colome also hasn’t given up a run in 22 times this season.

However, you have to go back to May 29th (vs Texas) for his last true clean appearance, and then back to the beginning of May for a stretch of seven consecutive scoreless appearances (May 1st – May 14th).

In short, El Coballo needs to step it up, or he will lose his job to Boxberger or Hunter … and the Rays may be better for it.

The New What Next

The Rays wrap up the series and an eight-game road Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Blake Snell (0-5, 5.36 ERA, 5.29 FIP) will get the start opposite of John Lackey (5-9, 5.24 ERA, 5.88 FIP).

Snell entered last Wednesday’s start against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4:1 K:BB in seven starts with the Durham Bulls, then exited with a less than stellar 1.20 K:BB after an abysmal return to the bigs. The southpaw allowed six runs while walking five on 98 pitches (42 balls). The skinny: after getting a handle on his control issues at Durham, Snell returned to the majors and once again couldn’t find the strike zone, issuing a season tying number of walks.

Lackey, who loses five mph on his fastball when he pitches with his mouth open, had trouble executing his pitches in his last outing against the Nationals, giving up eight runs over 5-1/3 innings. He also hasn’t had much success at home this season, going 1-4 record with a 5.13 ERA. Teams are batting .281 against him at Wrigley. Over 24 career starts against Tampa Bay, Lackey is 13-8, but with a 4.00 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (3-6, BB), Corey Dickerson (1-3, HR, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Evan Longoria (14-40, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (2-2, 2 2B), Mallex Smith (2-3, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/5/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Beckham 2B
Hechavarria SS
Sucre C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller went 1-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout playing second base last night for the Durham Bulls.

— Logan Morrison was not happy with Major League Baseball’s decision to invite two Yankees to participate in the Home Run Derby. While we’re on that subject, fuck this guy and ESPN:

I firmly believe that LoMo is in the right:

The New What Next: Rays vs Cubs — a series preview

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Next stop Chicago, where the Rays will take on the return reigning World Series champions on Tuesday and Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will start a two-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, in Chicago — a series that many Rays fans have been waiting for with baited breath. After all, the Cubs are the reigning World Series champs, and a certain someone, that we are all too familiar with, finds himself at the helm of a ball club that has struggled to stay around the .500 mark all season.

I will neither wax nostalgic about how my two favorite teams that are set to face one another, nor will I discuss my feelings about the Rays’ former skipper — both topics have been discussed at length on this site and others.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays missed a chance to sweep the Orioles on Sunday, as they were flat in 7-1 in the series finale in Baltimore. Tampa Bay finished Sunday’s ball game with just five hits, and no player had more than one. Jesus Sucre hit a solo homer to put the Rays on the board, while Steven Souza Jr. collected their other extra base, a double. They enter this series tied with the Twins and Royals for the second AL wild card slot.

The Cubs finished an 11 game road trip with a 5-6 record, and they avoided a sweep by the Reds, taking a 6-2 win Sunday afternoon. They aren’t quite the juggernaut they were a year ago. As compared to the rest of the National League, the North-Siders start the series ninth in the in runs scored per game (4.54), 14th in team batting average (.237), sixth in homers (107), seventh in starter’s ERA (4.54), and third in reliever’s ERA (3.31). Be that as it may, they had a solid showing in the finale against Cincinnati. Ian Happ scored two runs and plated four RBI on a pair of homers, while Javier Baez drove in a run; each had three hits for Chicago. Both Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo hit homers as well. Much like the Rays, Chicago hope to rev things up before the All-Star Break.

This will be the third time the Rays travel to the Friendly Confines, having gone 1-2 in 2003 (including the game when Sammy Sosa broke a bat filled with cork) and 2-1 in 2014. They’ll face one another again this season, in September, at the Trop.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (6-5, 3.92 ERA, 3.07 FIP) and Blake Snell (0-5, 5.36 ERA, 5.29 FIP). Joe Maddon will counter with Jon Lester (5-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.63 FIP) and John Lackey (5-9, 5.24 ERA, 5.88 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer posted a quality start on Thursday, yet came away with the loss. The right-hander allowed three runs on eight hits over six innings of work. Yet in spite of his overall record and peripherals, Archer entered that outing with a 3-3 record and 4.76 ERA over his previous eight outings. The right-hander continues to accrue strikeouts, sporting an elite 10.7 K/9 for the season, however, his game-to-game inconsistency belies that, as he’s now allowed four runs or more in five of his past nine outings. The right-hander has worked exactly six innings in his last four starts, and has gone seven innings or more in six of his 17 starts this season.

Lester, the first of two “old friends” the Rays will face this series, posted his fourth consecutive quality start in his last start, holding Washington to one run over six innings. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, five walks and 18 strikeouts over 19 innings in his last three starts, and 13-9 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP over 170 innings overall against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (6-16, 2B), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)

Snell entered last Wednesday’s start against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4:1 K:BB in seven starts with the Durham Bulls, then exited with a less than stellar 1.20 K:BB after an abysmal return to the bigs. The southpaw allowed six runs while walking five on 98 pitches (42 balls). The skinny: after getting a handle on his control issues at Durham, Snell returned to the majors and once again couldn’t find the strike zone, issuing a season tying number of walks.

Lackey, who loses five mph on his fastball when he pitches with his mouth open, had trouble executing his pitches in his last outing against the Nationals, giving up eight runs over 5-1/3 innings. He also hasn’t had much success at home this season, going 1-4 record with a 5.13 ERA. Teams are batting .281 against him at Wrigley. Over 24 career starts against Tampa Bay, Lackey is 13-8, but with a 4.00 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (3-6, BB), Corey Dickerson (1-3, HR, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Evan Longoria (14-40, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (2-2, 2 2B), Mallex Smith (2-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Some good news for backup catcher Jesus Sucre, who had a ball glance off his wrist area on Sunday. The injury has been diagnosed as a bruised wrist, and no roster moves have been planned or will be needed.

— Brad Miller had Monday off for the Charlotte Stone Crabs, as he works his way back from a groin injury. Miller, who has gone 3-11 with three doubles and a run in his rehab stint with the Stone Crabs, could return this weekend for the Boston series.

— Corey Dickerson was named a starter for the AL All-Star Team on Sunday as the DH. Logan Morrison is up against four others for the final vote, which concludes Thursday afternoon. Neither Dickerson nor Morrison is part of the Home Run Derby on Monday in Miami.

Rays roster moves; 6/28/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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Alex Cobb took a no-hitter into the seventh inning last night. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to make it two in a row after Alex Cobb flirted with a no hitter in last night’s extra innings 4-2 win against the Pirates.

Following the ball-game, the Rays made a handful of roster moves, adding left-handed pitchers Blake Snell and Adam Kolarek, while optioning LHP Jose Alvarado and RHP Austin Pruitt to Triple-A Durham.

Alvarado’s demotion, while not expected, was warranted as the southpaw had struggled since an impressive first month following his promotion from the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits. Alvarado gave up runs in five of his last six outings while taking three losses.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays didn’t have any obvious replacements, but are turning to Kolarek, who had been pitching well for them at Triple-A Durham, posting a 1.36 ERA for 33 innings over 31 games, allowing 26 hits and 12 walks with 29 strikeouts.

Kolarek spent time both in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He received a spring training invite from the Atlanta Braves, but was let go and ended up re-signing with Tampa Bay at the end of Spring Training. He initially spent time in the Mets organization, getting as far as Triple-A for two games four years ago.

When Kolarek makes his big league debut, he will become the eighth such player to do so for the Rays this season. Only the Cincinnati Reds have one more player that’s done the same.

To make room for Kolarek on the 40-man roster, the Rays moved CF Kevin Kiermaier from the 10-day to the 60-day DL.

Rays 6/28/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF,
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Ramos C
Beckham 2B
Hechavarria SS
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Blake Snell has the third worst first pitch strike percentage and the worst swing percentage (minimum 40 innings). It’ll be interesting to see how he improved during his stint with Durham.

— Speaking of Snell, you can read about tonight’s pitching matchup in our series preview.

— Former Rays skipper Joe Manager penned an editorial for the Tampa Bay Times, discussing what is time with the Rays meant to him

The New What Next: Cubs vs Giants — an NLDS preview

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Ben Zobrist quietly put together his best season since 2012. (Photo Credit: Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

Ben Zobrist quietly put together his best season since 2012. (Photo Credit: Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

When the Rays aren’t in the playoffs, my focus shifts to one ball club that is. This season is no different, and my focus is firmly on an old National League standby, the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies had been my favorite team until 1998 when the Devil Rays took to the confines of Tropicana Field, at which point they became my NL team. The Cubs and handful of old friends — namely Ben Zobrist, Jason Hammel, Joe Maddon and Dave Martinez — are ready to butt heads with the cowboy, Bruce Bochy, and his San Francisco Giants.

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Against the NL, Chicago ranked second in OPS against LHP (.267 BA/.357 OBP/.449 SLG/.806 OPS) and fourth against RHP (.252 BA/.338 OBP/.421 SLG/.759 OPS), first in walks (656) and fifth in homers (199). Kris Bryant (.292 BA/.385 OBP/.554 SLG/39 HR) and Anthony Rizzo (.292 BA/.385 OBP/.544 SLG/32 HR) are the biggest offensive threats in the Cubs lineup, although the team boasts above-average production at almost every spot except right field, catcher, and short (with Addison Russell being league average and third on the team in homers). As with the Rays, when Maddon was at the helm, Chicago has a lot of roster flexibility, with Bryant, Ben Zobrist, and Chris Coghlan sometimes in the outfield instead of Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez or Tommy La Stella at third.

The Giants are ranked ninth in scoring (average of 4.41 runs per game) and OPS+ (94), and they really aren’t a powerful team — ranked 13th in homers (130), including just 55 at home. Unlike the Cubs, San Francisco doesn’t have a single player with 20 homers to his name. Still the Giants were solid against right handed pitching (.737 OPS), but less so against southpaws (.703 OPS). Despite uneven production from Buster Posey, Joe Panik, and Hunter Pence, there aren’t many places for opposing pitchers to hide.

They posted just two months above .500: May when they went 21–8, and June when they went 17–10. But even in their dismal second half San Francisco outscored opponents by nine runs. The Giants won seven of their last 10 games, allowing them to eke out a Wildcard berth on the last day of the season.

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Much of Chicago’s success comes from an excellent starting rotation. As Jay Jaffe (Sports Illustrated) wrote,

The Cubs had the majors’ stingiest rotation, with a 2.96 ERA; the jump to the next-lowest team in the NL (the Nationals at 3.60) is almost as big as that from second to sixth (the Marlins’ 4.32). The NL had 13 starters who qualified for the ERA title while preventing runs at a clip that was 15% better than average; the aforementioned Cubs’ front four all fit that description, with the Mets, Giants and Nationals as the only other teams with two. The story is similar when it comes to strikeout rates of at least 7.88 per nine (league average): The Cubs have four of the 16 qualified starters, and the Giants and Nationals are the only other teams with two. Oh, and the Cubs’ rotation also threw more innings than any NL team (989) and was the only one with a quartet of 180-inning studs.

The Cubs also are masters at preventing runs — 0.35 per game fewer than any other NL team— thanks to a defense whose +95 DRS ranked first in the league by 36 runs. Jaffe also noted Chicago’s .728 defensive efficiency was 26 points higher than the second-ranked team, the Giants. Via Baseball Prospectus’ Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Cubs’ 6.38% above average is the all-time record, outdoing the 2001 Mariners’ 5.54%.

Bochy potentially will lean on Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto in the first two games of the series, then Madison Bumgarner and Matt Moore in the third and fourth contests. MattyMoe pitched brilliantly against the Dodgers in the final game of the season, although he has been erratic with both Tampa Bay and San Francisco this season, making him a league-average starter. With the exceptions of Jason Heyward and Miguel Montero, the Cubs tend beat up left handed pitching. After Bumgarner, Moore could seem like a walk in the park.

The bullpen has been the biggest weak spot for San Francisco, as the Giants led the league with 32 blown saves this season. They  lost nine games in which the Giants led in the ninth inning, including five in September and October. Because of it former closer Santiago Casilla lost his job to Sergio Romo. The ‘pen was able to lower its ERA and FIP in the second half (3.35 ERA and 3.62 FIP, previously 3.94 ERA and 3.93 FIP in the first half), but the overall 3.66 ERA and 3.78 FIP are the highest of any NL contending team.

The New What Next: Rays vs ChiSox — a series preview

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The Rays tied the game in the eighth, yet lost in the 10th of Sunday's home season finale against the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Rays tied the game in the eighth, yet lost in the 10th of Sunday’s home season finale against the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays take to the show on the road to cap the season; first stop Chicago, where they’ll face the White Sox over the next four days. If they can win just one game over the final seven days, they will earn Kevin Cash a better record in his second full year as manager, than Joe Maddon in his sophomore season.

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Tampa Bay was swept in three games over the weekend by the Boston Red Sox, losing by a combined four runs to finish their home schedule. The Rays, who struck out 23 times in the home finale, held the Red Sox to 11 total runs, yet plated just seven for an average of 2.33 runs per game.

The White Sox knocked off the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians over the last two contests — capped by a 3-0 shutout on Sunday.

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Cash will lean on Drew Smyly (7-11, 4.86 ERA), Alex Cobb (1-1, 6.16 ERA), Blake Snell (6-8, 3.65 ERA), and Chris Archer (8-19, 4.02 ERA) over the next four days. Robin Ventura will counter with James Shields (5-18, 5.98 ERA), Chris Sale (16-9, 3.19 ERA), Miguel González (4-8, 3.98 ERA), and José Quintana (13-11, 3.21 ERA).

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Rays Series Starters

Smyly hurled six innings of one run ball on Tuesday, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out three. The lefty turned in an 87 pitch outing, and could have worked his way through the seventh. Instead, the Rays skipper turned the game over to Brad Boxberger, who razed the potential win into a loss for the team. Still, Tuesday’s performance earned the southpaw his first quality start in his last four outings, lowing his ERA to 4.86 — its lowest mark since August 26.

Cobb was roughed up Wednesday, lasting just 1-1/3 innings and giving up seven runs on nine hits and a walk. The righty had been pitching well in his return from Tommy John surgery, maintaining a 3.06 ERA over three starts before Wednesday. The outing more than doubled Cobb’s ERA to an unsightly 6.16.

Snell shut down the Yankees over five frames on Thursday, working around five hits and three walks while fanning six. The outing was representative of Snell’s season — the lefty has allowed a lot of baserunners, but has effectively limited the damage, allowing him to post a 3.65 ERA. His 94 strikeouts in 86-1/3 innings speak to his ace potential, however, he needs to cut down on his walks and become more efficient in order to sustain this success over the long haul.

Archer relinquished a pair of earned runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings on Friday, striking out seven. The Rays ace once again posted a quality start, yet collected another tally in the loss column. Archer notched 14 whiffs and collected 20-of-27 first-pitch strikes, but he was doomed by a lack of run support. He’s lowered his ERA by 64 points (4.66 ERA to 4.02 ERA) since the All-Star Break.

White Sox Series Starters

Shields allowed seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks while fanning four over 5-1/3 innings on Tuesday. The former Ray turned in a dud against the Phillies, one of the worst offenses in baseball. Still Shields is 2-0 with a 2.09 ERA in two starts against his former team. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (1-2, 2B), Brad Miller (3-7, HR, RBI, BB), Alexei Ramirez (23-68, 2B, 3B, 2 HR,  6 RBI, 3 BB)

Sale suffered an embarrassing loss against the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing six runs on seven hits while striking out five over four innings. Wednesday marked the Southpaw’s second-shortest outing, and most humiliating performance, of 2016. Sale pitched at least eight innings in each of his previous five starts, owning a 1.50 ERA while striking out 50 over 42 innings. The southpaw is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Rays. Key matchup: Mikie Mahtook (HR, RBI)

Gonzalez allowed three runs on six hits while fanning two over seven innings on Saturday. The 32-year-old journeyman has now thrown nine consecutive quality (extending back to July 1), not including a mid-August outing in which he left after the first inning due to a groin injury. His second-half ERA now is 2.96, thanks to improved command and control resulting in a decreased walk rate from (9.0% to 4.2%). Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-3, HR, RBI), Logan Forsythe (3-12, 2B, BB), Alexei Ramirez (2-7, 2B, BB)

Quintana hurled six innings of one run ball on Saturday, walking three and striking out two. The southpaw settled in for his second win against Cleveland in the past 11 days, as he pitched out of a pair of early jams — relinquishing just one run — while throwing an inefficient 53 pitches, and loading the bases twice. Quintana is on track to post his lowest ERA in his career, as it currently sits at 3.21 over 202 total innings of work. He allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits in a loss to the Rays on April 17th. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (5-8, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-8, 2B), Evan Longoria (4-11)

Noteworthiness

— Evan Longoria has 169 hits on the season, needing just one more to set a career high. He also is five away from his first 100-RBI season since 2010.

— The Rays are 7-2 against the White Sox since the start of the 2015 season after taking two of three at home in April.

— Kevin Kiermaier suffered a bruised left wrist when he was hit by a pitch on Sunday. He is listed as day-to-day.

— Todd Frazier needs one homer and four RBI to become the sixth Chicago player to put up a 40-homer/100-RBI season. He is 14-34 with three homes and six RBI during a nine-game hitting streak.