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The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview

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The face of the Rays is none too happy with his team’s offensive struggles. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays returned home, from a relatively quick road jaunt, where they’ll face the Seattle Mariners over the next three days, ahead of a previously scheduled off-day on Monday. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game series loss to Toronto, while Seattle took two of three from Baltimore.

(Stats: ESPN)

Hanging in playoff contention by a thread, something that has more to do with the fact that none have run away with the final Wildcard spot than it has with quality play of the Rays, a frustrated Evan Longoria opined that “losses are definitely tough at this point in the year.”

With just 39 games left of the regular season, Longoria has a point. The Rays have been hard to watch, yet here we are with a team that is still in the hunt … one with an opportunity to make up some ground against a ball club that sits ahead of them in the Wildcard standings. But time is of the essence, and the Rays cannot afford to continue to squander quality starts by the pitching staff which has worked to a 2.92 ERA over the month of August.

We’ve got to turn it around, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. You can only delay it for so long and say there’s time, there’s time. Time is of the essence. We’ve got to start playing good baseball games whether we matchup well against that team or not, forget it. We have to play good baseball.

There are a couple of bright sides. Seattle is just two games removed from a five game losing streak, and Scott Servais will start three hurlers with +4.00 ERA’s over the last 14-days. Hopefully, yes hopefully, the Rays offense can muster enough offense to take at least two-out-of-three from the M’s.

On the contrary, however, the Rays faced the Mariners in early June and were swept in a three-game series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean in Austin Pruitt (1-2, 3.08 ERA, 4.32 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.30 ERA, 5.64 FIP), and Blake Snell (1-6, 4.78 ERA, 4.84 FIP). Scott Servais will counter with former Ray Erasmo Ramirez (4-4, 4.73 ERA, 4.61 FIP), Ariel Miranda (7-6, 4.75 ERA, 5.43 FIP), and Yovani Gallardo (4-8, 6.41 ERA, 5.50 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Pruitt notched a quality start in his last turn against Cleveland, and has turned a corner of late. Over his last three starts and (spanning 18-1/3 innings) the right-hander has allowed just four runs on 11 hits and three walks. He also has worked to a 1.96 ERA along the way.

Ramirez will face the team that traded him before the deadline for Steve Cishek. Erasmo has been spotty since the deal, going 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in three starts. He, however, is coming off his best outing with Seattle — throwing six innings of one run, three hit baseball against the Angels. But with .211 BABIP over the last 14 days, it’s safe to say Erasmo has been the beneficiary of good luck. For the sake of the Rays, who have been the recipient of bad luck over the same span, the luck dragons have got to change for both parties at some point. We all know what to expect from Ramirez: a zippy fastball, a whiffy changeup with a ton of movement, and a sinker that he tries to keep at the bottom of the zone.

Odorizzi was solid in his last start against Toronto and buckled down to control his stuff after allowing a first-inning home run. This was a good sign for the right-hander that is coming off back-to-back short outings. Odorizzi gave up a two-run homer to Josh Donaldson in the first inning, but cruised to a quality start through the next five frames. Unfortunately the Rays couldn’t come to life against Nick Tepesch, dropping Odorizzi to his sixth loss of the season.

Miranda is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA over his past seven starts. He has given up 12 home runs over that stretch. The southpaw threw a complete-game victory against Tampa Bay on June 4 in Seattle, scattering just four hits and one run with nine strikeouts. That was the only time Tampa Bay has faced Miranda. Key Matchups: Trevor Plouffe (1-2), Daniel Robertson (1-3, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (1-4)

Snell battled through six innings in his last turn. And even though he allowed four earned runs, manager Kevin Cash said it might have been Snell’s best start of the season because of his ability to come up big the last inning when his team needed it. After Snell gave up an early run on a fluke double, the left-hander locked it in and forced weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Gallardo, the 31-year-old right-hander, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA over his past three starts. He lasted just four innings with eight runs and two homers in his previous start against Baltimore. The former Oriole/Ranger/Brewer is 3-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays. He has not faced Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-13, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Lucas Duda (5-13, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Brad Miller (5-15, 2 2B, 3B, 3 BB), Trevor Plouffe (5-17, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) is expected to rejoin the Rays on Friday.

We’re hoping all goes well, Cash said of his Thursday afternoon rehab start. He’s very, very close.

Mallex Smith likely will be optioned to Triple-A Durham to make room for Kiermaier.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) is slated to throw a bullpen session on Saturday at Tropicana Field. If all goes well, he will rejoin the rotation next week, potentially as soon as Tuesday.

— Matt Andriese (hip) started for the Charlotte Stone Crabs Thursday night in the second of three scheduled rehab outings.

Mariners to acquire Erasmo Ramirez from Rays for Steve Cishek (MLB Trade Rumors)

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It appears that Erasmo Ramirez may be heading back to Seattle. (Photo Credit: Gary Shelton Sports)

According to Jeff Todd (MLB Trade Rumors), the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners have completed another trade, this time for RHP Steve Cishek. The move may explain Kevin Cash’s hesitance to use Ramirez in the extra inning loss to the New York Yankees last night.

Todd writes:

The Marines are closing in on a deal to add righty Erasmo Ramirez from the Rays, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Right-handed reliever Steve Cishek would head to Tampa Bay in return, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link).

Ramirez, 27, has functioned as a swingman for the Rays since coming over from Seattle before the 2015 season. Now, he’ll head back to his original organization to provide another rotation option. With two more years of arbitration eligibility, he’ll also represent a potential part of the staff through 2019.

While Ramirez carries only a 4.80 ERA on the year, and has worked mostly from the pen over the past two campaigns, he has mostly been himself in 2017. The positive areas (7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 48.6% groundball rate) are on par with Ramirez’s career figures, and the problems (1.30 HR/9) are familiar. His velocity and swinging-strike rate sit right at career averages.

If and when his 63.8% strand rate normalizes, Ramirez will likely settle back into being a useful back-end starter or solid long-relief arm. And that’s what the M’s will need from him to stay in contention down the stretch. Seattle has cycled through starters for much of the year and still has an uncertain rotation mix. It’ll be interesting to see whether the club continues exploring the market for starters.

Of course, that came at a cost, as the Mariners will sacrifice a solid late-inning option in Cishek. That’s just what the Rays have been searching for, with the team perhaps more willing to part with Ramirez with a variety of rotation options at or near the MLB level.

The 31 year-old Cishek carries a 3.15 ERA/4.80 FIP over 20 innings of work this season, with a 6.75 K/9 and a 3.15 BB/9. What really stands out for the right-hander though is his ability to induce ground balls (61.4% ground ball rate) at a high level — which bodes well for Tampa Bay’s infielders when they choose to make plays — and his ability to miss barrels and limit hard contact (26.3 % soft contact rate, 45.6 % medium contact rate, 28.1 % hard contact rate).

His splits against left and right handed batters — .150 BA/.261 OBP/.500 SLG/.761 OPS/.299 wOBA vs LHH, .192 BA/.263 OBP/.275 SLG/.516 OPS/.241 wOBA vs RHH — make him more than a one and done type of pitcher …  although his unsightly .500 SLG against lefties makes him a better option against righties. The American League East is loaded with right-handed bats, and in that way Cishek is a big upgrade over Ramirez.

The Rays would control Cishek until the end of the season, after which he will become a free-agent.

In the end, Erasmo was beloved by the team, as well as one of the better pitching options for Tampa Bay, since coming over from Seattle in 2015. However, the Rays had a glaring need in the ‘pen going into their playoff push, and the front office devised a plan to get a dominant, extreme ground-ball pitcher — a hurler that helps lesson the probability of what happened a night ago.

All told, there 20 active relief pitchers that have at least 250 career appearances and hold a sub-2.90 ERA … and the Rays have acquired three of them this week in Cishek, Dan Jennings and Sergio Romo.

LBWMF: Rays fall to the Orioles, 8-3; Blake Snell to be recalled

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The Buffalo didn’t fare as well as he could have in his debut, going 1-4 with a strikeout. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Jake Faria put together a fourth consecutive quality start on Saturday for the Tampa Bay Rays, however, the bullpen allowed four runs to break open a tie game in the seventh. The Rays saw their three-game win streak come to an end with an 8–3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore took an early three-run lead against Faria, who hadn’t allowed more than a run in his first three big league starts. Trey Mancini was hit by an 0–2 pitch in the second, then Wellington Castillo followed with a homer to left on a hanging 3–2 slider. It was the first homer Faria allowed this season (the first of two on the day). The Orioles extended the lead in the third on a two-out solo homer off the bat of Adam Jones, which eluded the leaping Mallex Smith.

Yet Faria followed with three scoreless innings, keeping the Rays in the game. Granted he was not as sharp as he had been his first three starts, however, a 1.35 ERA and 1.04 FIP aren’t sustainable over the long-term. And while his command wasn’t as crisp as it had been, it wasn’t terrible. In the end, he was undone by a hit batsman and a pair of long-balls on two mistake pitches. All told, Faria posted his fourth consecutive quality start on the back of a 6 IP/5 H/3 ER/1 BB/108 pitch (74 strikes) line. If that constitutes a bad start, I’ll gladly take it.

The Rays were able to come back from the deficit to tie the contest in the third. Mallex Smith got things started by earning a two out free pass against Dylan Bundy, and Corey Dickerson drilled the next pitch over the wall in right — just to the right of the Dan Johnson Game 162 commemorative seat — his 17th homer of the season.

Evan Longoria followed with a homer to right-center on the very next pitch — his 11th homer of the season.

Longoria’s solo home run

Evan Longoria belts a solo shot to right field immediately after Corey Dickerson crushes a homer of his own, tying the game at 3

It was the 10th time this season the Rays hit back-to-back homers, setting a new club record.

Yet Bundy kept the Rays in check from there, allowing just two additional walks and a hit. He went seven innings and gave up three runs on five hits, while walking four and fanning eight. The Orioles ended their MLB record tying streak of having allowed five runs or more in 20 Consecutive games (Philadelphia 1924).

Jose Alvarado took over in the seventh and walked Seth Smith to start the frame, after falling behind 3–2. With only righties remaining in the lineup, Kevin Cash called upon Jumbo Diaz — who has the stuff, but not the consistency.

Manny Machado laid down a beautifully placed bunt single up the left side on the first pitch. After Jonathan Schoop struck out, both runners moved into scoring position on Adam Jones’ groundout to second. With two out, Mark Trumbo worked the count full before hitting a 3–2 hanging slider to left-center for a double, putting Baltimore back in front at 5–3. Mancini followed by sending a first-pitch fastball into the right field seats, capping the rally. The Rays began the bottom of the frame down by four, and the damage had been done on just four pitches.

Baltimore added an insurance run in the top of the eighth, off Diaz, by collecting a pair of bunt singles, before Machado drove home Joey Rickard on a sacrifice fly to deep center.

The New What Next

The Rays will look for meatloaf in the series finale Sunday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.78 ERA, 5.34 FIP) gets the start, opposite of Chris Tillman (1-5, 8.39 ERA, 6.52 FIP). Tampa Bay has won seven straight rubber matches, and is 8–1–3 over the team’s last 12 series.

Odorizzi equaled a season high in his seven inning start against Cincinnati his last time out. He, however, continued his stretch of games, where he allowed at least a homer to 10 games straight — one shy of a franchise record. The right-hander cruised through the first four innings, yet a solo home run by Scott Schebler in the fifth inning and a two-run shot from Scooter Gennett in the sixth left the Rays down by three when he departed after the seventh. Still, the right-hander delivered his second quality start in the last three outings and holds a respectable 3.78 ERA (but a bloated 5.34 FIP) for the season.

Tillman hasn’t earned a win since May 7, his first start of the season. The right-hander was pulled after he allowed five earned runs over four innings against Cleveland on Tuesday. After missing the first month of the season due to a shoulder issue, and then tossing five pristine innings in his 2017 debut, Tillman’s been nothing short of a dumpster fire. His ERA now stands at 8.39, and the only thing that’s kept him in the rotation is a lack of alternatives within the organization. The Rays have handed him a career 8-11 record and a 4.11 ERA in 25 starts. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, RBI, BB), Peter Bourjos (1-2), Evan Longoria (19-63, 4 2B, 3B, 8 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-11, 2B, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (6-20, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB)

You can read more about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 6/25/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Plouffe DH
Robertson SS
Featherston 2B
Sucre C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Cash announced that LHP Blake Snell will again be promoted from Triple-A Durham on Wednesday, while RHP Erasmo Ramirez will return to the bullpen, effective immediately — citing the need for a way to get the ball to Alex Colome.

The Rays will make a corresponding move Wednesday.

Snell has been great since being optioned back to Durham on May 13. In seven starts with the Bulls, the southpaw has hurled 44 innings of 2.66 ERA/3.07 FIP baseball, while striking out 61 and walking 15 — that’s effectively a 4-to-1 K/BB if you’re keeping track. He’s thrown at least six innings in five of those seven starts.

Ramirez, reportedly, was not pleased by the decision and declined to talk about the move this morning with the media.

LBWMF: Cobb, Sucre and Dickerson lead the Rays to victory over the Reds, 6-5

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The new Bash Brothers? Sure, why not! (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Coming off an imperfect 6-5 win* against the Cincinnati Reds, the Tampa Bay Rays look to close out their Interleague Series against the southern Ohioans with a win Wednesday afternoon. Erasmo Ramirez (2-2, 6.48 ERA, 4.63 FIP) looks to improve on his last four starts, and will pitch opposite of Tim Adleman (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 5.23 FIP).

In last night’s game, to the detriment of the team, the Rays made trio of outfield misplays, which Kevin Cash described as being “a debacle.” One such play came in the third inning, when Corey Dickerson and Peter Bourjos allowed Adam Duvall’s fly-ball to drop into left-centerfield for a triple. Two pitches later, Eugenio Suarez singled to center, allowing Duvall to score the Reds’ second run of the game. It’s but one example of the type of gaffes that must be cleaned up if the Rays are to have any hope of maintaining relevancy into the fall.

But in spite of the defensive miscues — paired with Tommy Hunter and Alex Colome’s making of things a little too interesting in the eighth and ninth innings — Tampa Bay turned in its 38th win of the season behind Alex Cobb’s strong start, and some timely hitting.

Between the first and third innings Cobb allowed eight hits, yet only one over his last frames. The right-hander fanned six and walked just two. It appears that Cobb has rediscovered his vintage changeup — a pitch that continues to evolve as the season progresses … a pitch that had been his main weapon before his May 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Cobb has gotten more comfortable with it of late, and it’s regained some of its pre-surgery depth; the thing that made it such a dangerous weapon in the first place. He has shaved two-to-three inches of vertical movement off the pitch since the start of the season. For Cobb, the velocity never has been what’s made the pitch deadly, rather it is the movement. Bereft of the late break, his split-change became a meatball over the plate that begged to be crushed.

(Credit: Brooks Baseball)

He threw his split-change 25 times Tuesday — 16 for strikes, 5 whiffs — and 80 total over his past four starts.

Over the last three, four games, there’s been a lot of good signs with it, Cobb said after the game. Working on making it as consistent as my other two pitches. And to get to that I just have to keep throwing it and hopefully find some situations throughout the game where I can work on it and try to get that feel to where I can go to it like I used to when it was my best pitch.

Something that was a rarity in the past, his teammates gave him lots of run support last night, thanks in part to a pair of fourth inning homers by Jesus Sucre and Dickerson.

Talk about hitting a ball on a line! Sucre’s homer had an apex height 38 feet and it became one of the five lowest homers in the StatCast era.

Two batters later, Dickerson powered an opposite field homer to section 147.

Dickerson’s solo home run

Corey Dickerson lifts a solo home run to left-center field, extending the Rays’ lead to 6-2 in the bottom of the 4th inning

The extra run proved crucial, as it became the ultimate difference in the game.

*Hey now, a win is a win.

The New What Next

Erasmo Ramirez could be pitching today to keep his spot in the rotation. He has struggled over his past four starts, posting two losses and an unsightly 10.05 ERA. On Friday, the Tigers pounded him to the tune of 10 runs (eight earned) in 4-2/3 innings. As I wrote on Saturday, it may be time to move Erasmo back to the ‘pen where he’s been more successful; this outing likely will be a bellwether for the right-hander.

Adleman has been the Reds’ most consistent starter, as he’s gone at least five innings and given up three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. However, the Reds haven’t capitalized, going 2-3 in those games. Because he’s a fly ball pitcher, Adleman doesn’t generate nearly enough ground balls, leading to one of the worst HR/9 ratios in the league. It will be interesting to see if the 29 year-old right-hander leans on his plus curveball Wednesday afternoon in an attempt to keep the ball in the park. The breaking pitch ranks fifth in whiffs per swing, and it has been above average at inducing grounders and making it a tough pitch to do anything with. He’s also cultivated a .000 ISO and a .133 BAA with the curveball, although he’s thrown it just 10% of the time this season — down from 18% a season ago. He has never faced the Rays.

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 6/21/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson DH
Souza Jr. RF
Morrison 1B
Plouffe 2B
Robertson SS
Featherston 3B
Bourjos LF
Sucre C
Ramirez RHP

Noteworthiness

— Day game after a night game, neither Evan Longoria nor Colby Rasmus are in the lineup. Tim Beckham, who is mending from an HBP in Monday’s game, should be back in the lineup when the Orioles come to town Friday.

— Wilson Ramos was the DH yesterday for the Durham Bulls and went 1-for-4 with a two-run double. Brad Boxberger is expected to pitch today for the Bulls. Both are expected to join the team this weekend; Boxberger on Friday, and Ramos on Sunday.

The New What Next: Rays vs Reds — a series preview, Trevor Plouffe added to the roster

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The Rays return home Monday after splitting a pair of road series’ against the Blue Jays and Tigers. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their home run mashing ways when they welcome the Cincinnati Reds into the Trop for a three-game interleague series, starting Monday.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay continues to stay above the .500 mark after going 3-3 on a six-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Tigers. The Rays, who have now won two in a row, flexed their muscles against Detroit with five home runs (including a Steven Souza Jr. grand Slam) in the 9-1 win Sunday.

Here’s three of the five:

Tampa Bay and Cincinnati have only met 12 times total, with the Reds holding a 9-3 record in those games. The Rays, however, took two of three in 2014, the last time they faced Cincinnati. The Reds will need their history of success to be kind based on recent results. They are currently mired in a nine-game losing streak, sitting dead last in the NL Central after an 8-7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.

All told, the Rays are 6-4 over their last 10, and looking to separate themselves from the rest of the AL East, while the Reds are 1-9 over the same stretch and, well…looking for a win.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.77 ERA, 5.15 FIP), Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.17 ERA, 4.29 FIP), and Erasmo Ramirez (2-2, 6.48 ERA, 4.63 FIP). Bryan Price will counter with Scott Feldman (5-5, 4.29 ERA, 4.28 FIP), Amir Garrett (3-5, 6.91 ERA, 6.97 FIP), and Tim Adleman (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 5.23 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Key Matchups

Odorizzi did not make it out of the fifth inning in his last start when he allowed three runs over 4-1/3 innings of a no decision against Toronto. Odorizzi struggled with his control throughout, throwing 99 pitches (55 strikes) in his outing. Be that as it may, Odorizzi otherwise has been solid at home, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.11 ERA at the Trop this season, while collecting five quality starts in a row at home.

Feldman last pitched in a 6-2 loss in San Diego on Tuesday, allowing four runs and eight hits in five innings. That start was one of six in which he was tagged for four runs or more. Having spent 12 of his 13 seasons in the American League, Feldman has plenty of experience against the Rays, going 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 17 appearances (seven starts). This season he has relied primarily on a ground ball inducing 89 mph cutter, a 90 mph sinker, and a 76 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3),  Evan Longoria (5-17, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, BB), Derek Norris (6-14, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Colby Rasmus (2-8), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3)

Cobb earned a no-decision in his start Thursday against Detroit, but hurled an effective 6-2/3 innings and allowed two earned runs. The right-hander fanned just three batters, and walked a pair while giving up eight hits in that start, although he was able to lean on his split-change — throwing it 17 times (12 for strikes, two whiffs), which is a lot compared to the number he threw earlier in the season. The Tigers only put two of them in play, and the pitch did appear to regain some of its pre-surgery depth. In his only career start against the Reds, he threw seven scoreless frames.

Garrett notched his first quality start in over a month on Wednesday, throwing six innings of two-run ball against San Diego. To his credit, he kept the ball down in the zone, something he struggled to do over his last several starts. Beware of the long-ball! In that contest, Hunter Renfroe hit a monstrous two-run homer in the sixth inning. With a 2.57 HR/9 over the last 14 days, the Rays will try to punish Garrett for any mistakes left up in the zone. This season Garrett has relied primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, and an 80 mph 12-6 slider. He’s also mixed in an 81 mph changeup with slight cut and a lot of backspin. He has never faced the Rays.

Ramirez has struggled over his past four starts, posting two losses and an unsightly 10.05 ERA. On Friday, the Tigers pounded him to the tune of 10 runs (eight earned) in 4-2/3 innings. As I wrote on Saturday, it may be time to move Erasmo back to the ‘pen where he’s been more successful; this outing likely will be a bellwether for the right-hander.

Adleman has been the Reds’ most consistent starter, as he’s gone at least five innings and given up three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. However, the Reds haven’t capitalized, going 2-3 in those games. Because he’s a fly ball pitcher, Adleman doesn’t generate nearly enough ground balls, leading to one of the worst HR/9 ratios in the league. It will be interesting to see if the 29 year-old right-hander leans on his plus curveball Wednesday afternoon in an attempt to keep the ball in the park. The breaking pitch ranks fifth in whiffs per swing, and it has been above average at inducing grounders and making it a tough pitch to do anything with. He’s also cultivated a .000 ISO and a .133 BAA with the curveball, although he’s thrown it just 10% of the time this season — down from 18% a season ago. He has never faced the Rays.

Noteworthiness

— Trevor Plouffe, acquired from Oakland, has officially joined the active roster. To make room for Plouffe, the Rays have designated Michael Martinez (no options remaining) for assignment.