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The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox, part two — a series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier takes a moment in the outfield after committing his fourth fielding gaffe (third error) in three days. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic)

Changes of scenery can be good. Often times I just drive, it doesn’t matter where. I put my foot to the floor and let the wind blow through my hair. After a 3-6 homestand, including another series loss to the Royals, a change of scenery would serve the Tampa Bay Rays well. First stop Boston, where they’ll start a three-game series with the Red Sox on Friday.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays have fallen a bit below .500 thanks to the loss to the Royals. They also have lost five of their last seven, including the two of three they against Toronto. It’s worth noting both the Royals and the Blue Jays are two of the most disappointing teams in the league so far this year.

It certainly doesn’t help that Tampa Bay dropped three of four against Boston in April, this despite posting a positive run differential over the span of the series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (3-1, 3.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP), Blake Snell (0-3, 3.96 ERA, 5.03 FIP), and Matt Andriese (2-1, 3.12 ERA, 4.56 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Rick Porcello (2-4, 3.95 ERA, 3.97 FIP), Chris Sale (3-2, 1.92 ERA, 1.45 FIP), and Drew Pomeranz (3-2, 5.23 ERA, 4.70 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over eight innings on Sunday, although he came away with the loss. He is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts, and 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five career starts at Fenway Park — including his last start against the Red Sox, when he relinquished four runs on 11 hits in five innings.

Porcello is starting to look like the reigning Cy Young Award winner that he is. Over his last four starts, he has gone at least six innings in each and has a 27-to-5 K/BB in 26-2⁄3 innings. Interestingly enough, the start prior to this run was against Tampa Bay when he allowed eight runs, with four home runs mixed in, over just 4-1⁄3 innings. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (7-22, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (7-23, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (10-24, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (3-9), Steven Souza Jr. (7-23, HR, RBI, BB)

Snell continued to struggle with fastball command on Monday against Kansas City, as he allowed four runs on 10 hits and a walk, while fanning two in five innings. He now has pitched five innings or fewer in six consecutive starts. The southpaw allowed four runs in five innings against Boston in April, although only one of those runs was earned.

Sale is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing a season-high four runs to Minnesota, yet he still struck out 10 and earned the win. Sale struck out 12 Rays over seven innings on April 15, and has double-digit strikeouts in his last six starts — two away from tying the Major League record that he shares with Pedro Martinez. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-6)

Andriese allowed two earned runs in 5-1/3 innings against against Kansas City on Tuesday, coming away with a no-decision. He, however, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two career appearances at Fenway, and 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career appearances against the Red Sox. Andriese’s strikeout rate is around average, his walk rate is in good shape, and he has juxtaposed the home runs he’s allowed this year by inducing a bunch of ground balls. This will be his first time facing the Red Sox in 2017.

Pomeranz is coming off a rough start, giving up five runs and two homers in the first inning against the Brewers. Pomeranz last faced Tampa Bay on April 16, and he had an uneven start, giving up five runs over 4-1/3 innings, but also striking out 10. Home runs have been a major issue for the lefty this season, and he’s now given up a total of seven over 31 innings, counterbalancing the 36 strikeouts he has collected. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (7-15, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (1-4, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Souza’s thumb is feeling better, and hopes to get back in lineup on Saturday or Sunday.

— With the forecast calling for heavy rain in the evening, Saturday’s game has been moved up to 1:05 PM.

LBWMF: Rays fall to BoSox, 2-1; Jake Odorizzi placed on 10-day DL

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Rays reliever Erasmo Ramirez takes a breather after giving up a homer to Mitch Moreland on his first pitch. Ramirez settles down and allows nothing else through four innings. (Photo Credit: Associated Press)

The Tampa Bay Rays lost Jake Odorizzi to the injury bug on Saturday — more specifically to left hamstring tightness — as the team fell to the Boston Red Sox, 2-1. Tampa Bay has split the first two games of a four-game set with Boston.

On the first pitch of the second inning, Odorizzi threw a breaking pitch to first baseman Mitch Moreland, then instantly grimaced on the follow through — also grabbing at the top of his left thigh area. Ron Porterfield and Rays skipper Kevin Cash quickly made their way to the mound and watched Odorizzi throw a pair of practice pitches. The look on Odorizzi’s face spoke volumes: he was in no shape to continue.

The broadcast team, DeWayne and BA, pointed out that Odorizzi grabbed the same spot where he was hit by a Jose Bautista line drive six days prior, in his last start against Toronto. He stayed in to pitch three more innings that day, and did all his normal between-starts work without worry — Jake reportedly felt fine. Yet he acknowledged the correlation between this injury and the line drive following the game:

It wasn’t an issue from when it happened until that pitch.

Following the ball-game, the Rays placed Odorizzi on the 10-day DL with what is hoped to be a minor injury; recalling Chase Whitely in the process. Whitley is expected to pitch in relief.

In light of the departure, Erasmo Ramirez took the mound in relief…and was greeted rather rudely by Moreland, who hit a first-pitch solo shot to right, on a center cut four-seam fastball for a Boston lead. That, however, was the only run they would score off Ramirez.

Erasmo spent the rest of his outing working at the bottom of the zone with his fastball, while keeping Boston’s hitters off balance with his slider that drew three whiffs on six swings. Ramirez gave Tampa Bay four solid innings on 46 pitches, allowing three hits while striking out two.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay answered in the third inning against Chris Sale. Kevin Kiermaier took a walk then moved to second on a one-out single to left by Steven Souza Jr. Evan Longoria plated the Rays’ only run with a two-out single to center, ending his 1-for-22 career stretch against the left-hander. Tampa Bay eventually loaded the bases with two outs, but Sale limited damage by striking out Derek Norris to end the threat. That started a 4-1/3 inning stretch where Sale allowed just a walk while striking out eight.

After Ramirez, Tommy Hunter worked a perfect sixth inning, only to get into trouble in the seventh.

Hunter allowed singles to the righty-killer that is Mitch Moreland, as well as Xander Bogaerts to open the frame. Pablo Sandoval grounded into a 3–6 fielder’s choice, allowing Moreland to move up to third. After walking Chris Young to load the bases, Xavier Cedeno entered the game to have switch-hitting Sandy Leon hit right-handed. The irony being that Leon is by far a better right-handed hitter, with the catcher slashing .318 BA/.395 OBP/.485 SLG/.880 OPS at home against lefties from the right side.

Cedeno, who has been rather suspect of late, jammed Leon with an inside cutter and coaxed a broken-bat grounder to Daniel Robertson at second. Robertson elected to get the sure out at first, while Moreland crossed the plate for the go-ahead run. After an intentional walk of Dustin Pedroia, Cedeno got Andrew Benintendi to ground into the shift, limiting damage to a single run.

That was frustrating simply because you felt like you get the right guy in there, you make the right move, you make the right pitch, everything goes your way, but we don’t quite get the ball hit hard enough to turn a double play, Cash said in his post-game presser. No fault to anybody — X was outstanding, and Robby got the only out he could get.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) made mention of the game changing play:

Robertson explained why he didn’t throw to second — his positioning, where he caught the ball, the potential to hit the runner with the throw — then saying “in hindsight, maybe I should have tried to give it a shot.” Boston manager John Farrell also said he thought they would try for two.

The Rays mounted one last rally against set-up man Matt Barnes, who walked Souza and the pinch hitting Corey Dickerson with just one out. Longoria stepped to the plate with intent to put his team ahead, yet the face of the franchise grounded hard into a 5–4–3 double play, ending the inning.

Craig Kimbrel closed out the game with a sharp 1-2-3 ninth.

The New What Next

The Rays play game three of four against Boston on Sunday. Alex Cobb (1-1, 3.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP) will toe the rubber opposite lefty Drew Pomeranz (0-1, 1.50 ERA, 1.45 FIP).

Cobb has been good over his first two starts of the season. His ERA is in good order (even though his FIP isn’t), and he has limited walks, although he hasn’t rung up a ton of batters and and he has allowed homers at a high rate.

Pomeranz’ first start was encouraging, spinning six innings of one-run ball against the Orioles. The left-hander admitted to being a bit sore after the outing, although he doesn’t think it’s anything to be concerned about (as it relates to his previous forearm issues). He has been a two pitch pitcher thus far, relying upon a whiffy four seam fastball, and a hard curveball with sharp downward bite. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, BB), Brad Miller (6-13, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-5, BB)

You can read about today’s pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.

Rays 4/16/17 Starting Lineup

Souza Jr RF
Kiermaier CF
Longoria DH
Miller 2B
Weeks 1B
Dickerson LF
Robertson 3B
Sucre C
Beckham SS
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

— Jim Turvey (DRaysBay) implores you to keep a a close eye on the Rays bullpen while Odorizzi is shelved.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview

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Derek Norris went 1-7 with a strikeout against the Yankees. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays got off to a hot start this season, however, they’re coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees, with the latest game being a late-inning comeback by New York. They will try to right the ship against the Boston Red Sox, in a four-game series starting Friday.

(Stats: ESPN)

…Welcome to Boston, where the digs are tin-can like and flu infested. A severe flu bug has ravaged Boston’s roster over the past week, and the Rays are taking some precautions as they head into Fenway Park.

The team purchased two Synexis Biodefense Systems high-tech air filtration units to be placed in the visiting clubhouse, providing sustainable, wide-area reduction of microbial levels in occupied spaces.

The issue is thought to be more prevalent in the home clubhouse, however, the Rays are concerned about the transfer of germs from stadium workers who travel back and forth between the two rooms.

The team has also reminded players and staff to wash their hands frequently and avoid contact with Red Sox staff — preventative steps they should be taking regardless of the circumstances. Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Robbie Ross Jr. are among those that have been sidelined. Jackie Bradley Jr. was instead bit by the injury bug after suffering a knee sprain caused by a misstep while running the bases.

In similar fashion, the speedy Mallex Smith left Thursday’s game with right hamstring tightness, incurred as he tried to get to third base after a Jesus Sucre RBI single on Thursday.

I don’t think this will keep me sidelined too long, but I’ve just got ot see how it feels (today), Smith said. That’ll tell me a lot more.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (1-0, 2.45 ERA, 2.00 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 4.50 ERA, 5.87 FIP), Alex Cobb (1-1, 3.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP), and Blake Snell (0-1, 3.18 ERA, 5.16 FIP) over the next four days. John Farrell will counter with Rick Porcello (1-0, 4.38 ERA, 2.38 FIP), Chris Sale (0-1, 1.23 ERA, 1.93 FIP), Drew Pomeranz (0-1, 1.50 ERA, 1.45 FIP), and Steven Wright (0-1, 13.50 ERA, 11.70 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer entered the season looking to bounce back from a subpar 2016. He’s done just that over his first two starts, pitching into the eighth inning in both of his starts while allowing four runs total. He hasn’t fanned a ton of batters, posting just a 7.98 K/9, but the strikeouts will come.

Porcello has been good so far, although that’s compared to the great pitcher he was last year through his first two starts. His control is still there and he’s been able to rack up the strikeouts through his first two games — pitching to a 9.49 K/9. In his last start, Porcello allowed three runs on 11 hits and a walk over six innings against the Tigers. Key matchups: Peter Borjous (2-7), Corey Dickerson (7-19, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (5-20, 2 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (8-22, 2 2B, 1 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (6-21)

Odorizzi has shown both flashes and lapses of command this season, as he’s allowed three homers through his first two starts. When he’s on, he has the ability to shut down any lineup in the league, however, he will have to curtail his home run allowing ways. Odorizzi, was hit in the leg by a line drive on Sunday, although he isn’t concerned about it having any residual impact on his start against Boston.

It feels like a bruise, he said. I don’t think it’ll be a big issue.

Sale is a beast of consistency with really great stuff. The lefty was excellent in his last start, throwing 7-2/3 innings of two-run ball, allowing five hits and one walk while fanning 10. He has looked terrific in his first two starts, and now carries a 1.23 ERA and a 17/2 K/BB over 14-2/3 innings. He, however, has received just one run of support thus far. Key matchups: Peter Borjous (2-7, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, BB), Logan Morrison (1-3), Rickie Weeks Jr. (1-3)

Cobb has been good over his first two starts of the season. His ERA is in good order (even though his FIP isn’t), and he has limited walks, although he hasn’t rung up a ton of batters and and he has allowed homers at a high rate.

Pomeranz’ first start was encouraging, spinning six innings of one-run ball against the Orioles. The left-hander admitted to being a bit sore after the outing, although he doesn’t think it’s anything to be concerned about (as it relates to his previous forearm issues). He has been a two pitch pitcher thus far, relying upon a whiffy four seam fastball, and a hard curveball with sharp downward bite. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, BB), Brad Miller (6-13, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-5, BB)

Snell still has work to do on his fastball command, but that’s a well worn diatribe by now. His 3.18 ERA looks great, yet his 6.35 BB/9 does not. It’s undoubtable that the Red Sox’s game plan will be to be patient against Snell. If — for some reason — they aren’t, or if he can lock it in, Snell can dominate Boston on Patriot’s Day.

Wright, the knuckle baller, lasted just 1-1⁄3 innings in his last start, including four home runs while recording only four outs. The Rays have faced Wright just once, although they tagged him for four runs (all earned) on seven hits, including a pair of homers, over four innings last season. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3), Brad Miller (2-5, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Morrison (2-4, HR, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays set for the final home game of the season after another stunning loss; Jose Fernandez passes away in tragic accident

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Brad Miller's 80 RBI are two shy of his total for the past two seasons combined. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Brad Miller’s 80 RBI are two shy of his total for the past two seasons combined. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Less than 24-hours after Danny Farquhar’s misplaced changeup (that also didn’t break) resulted in a grand slam off the bat of Dustin Pedroia, the Tampa Bay Rays will take the field at home for the last time this season. While Boston walked away from last night’s ballgame having clinched a playoff berth for the second time in three years, for Tampa Bay, the come-from-behind loss offered an inglorious — yet fitting — end to the contest; analogous to that of the entire season.


Source: FanGraphs

In the end the bullpen did what its done all season, falter late when it mattered the most. Consider that the relievers, per FanGraphs, maintain a 112-to-70 shutdown-to-meltdown rating, and a -2.17 WPA — nestling the bullpen somewhere between poor and awful. Sure, the ‘pen has improved from the first half of the season to the second, however, the -0.1 combined fWAR speaks volumes.

That’s not to say there haven’t been any rays of light, after all Alex Colome is the fourth best closer in the AL, while Matt Andriese and recent additions Chase Whitley (should he be used as a reliever next season) and Eddie Gamboa have shown their effectiveness out of the ‘pen. They, however, appear to be the exceptions to the rule. Matt Silverman likely will have a busy offseason trying to rebuild the ‘pen.

Look at the bright side: with last night’s crowd of 25,641, Tampa Bay has drawn 1,259,720 (an average of 15,747), surpassing last year’s total of 1,247,668 (15,403 average).

That is neither here or now though, as the Rays have one more home game before they close out the season on the south side of Chicago then Arlington.

The New What Next

Jake Odorizzi (9-6, 3.73 ERA) will take the mound for the Rays, opposite of Eduardo Rodriguez (3-7, 4.84 ERA). Odorizzi is coming off his MLB-most 16th no-decision on Sunday in Baltimore. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 of his starts. Odorizzi is 3-3, with a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts against Boston, although he is 2-0, with a 1.01 ERA in four starts at Trop.

The righty told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he see this turn as being akin to that of a playoff start:

For me, I kind of look at this start as a playoff test, like this would be the first round of the playoffs. It’s going to be a playoff-caliber team, and it’s nice to go against them at the end when they’re trying to clinch.

Rodriguez is coming off a win Tuesday at Orioles. He is 2-4, with a 3.21 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star Break, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of those games. Rodriguez allowed nine runs on 11 hits over 2-2/3 innings against Tampa Bay on June 27.

You can read more about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/25/16 Starting Lineup

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(Photo Credit: Roger Mooney/Tampa Bay Times)

Noteworthiness

— Tragic news has come out of Miami this morning, one of baseball’s foremost young stars, RHP Jose Fernandez (ex-Alonso HS standout), died in a boating accident early Sunday morning.

Fernandez was among three people who were found dead after police responded to a 3:00 a.m. call regarding the accident. The 30-foot boat they were on overturned after crashing into rocks off Miami Beach. As a result of the news, the Marlins have cancelled this afternoon’s game against the Braves.

The team released a statement this morning:

The Miami Marlins organization is devastated by the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family at a very difficult time.

Fernandez was 24. Our thoughts are with his family and the Marlins organization on this tragic Sunday.

— From the Rays: Given today’s tragedy, we are canceling our pregame ceremony recognizing David Ortiz, per his wishes.

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Archer, Rays fall to Boston, 2-1

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Mikie Mattock's solo shot accounted for the Rays only run Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Mikie Mahtook’s solo shot accounted for the Rays only run Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Chris Archer allowed a first inning homer to David Ortiz on Friday, yet the Tampa Bay Rays were unable to recover from the deficit as they fell to the Boston Red Sox, 2-1. Despite turning his 10th quality start in 12 turns, Archer now holds the franchise record for losses in a season at 19.


Source: FanGraphs

The solo shot, his 37th on the season, followed Xander Bogaerts’ one-out walk, and gave Ortiz 124 RBI — the most ever by a player in his final season.

Archer was able to bounce back, pitching in an out of trouble over the next five innings as he held Boston scoreless for the remainder of his start.

Following the contest, Archer was grateful for never again having to see Ortiz in the opposing batter’s box, saying, “I’m not trying to be funny, but I’m really glad I’m not going to have to face that guy again. He’s a really good hitter.” It’s no wonder, Boston’s DH has been a chronic thorn in the side of Archer over his career, posting a .375 batting average (15-40) with four doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI.

On the other side of the coin, Drew Pomeranz was just as effective over his five innings of work. Mikie Mahtook was the only Ray that was able to produce against the former Padre, taking the southpaw deep to left-field on the first pitch he saw in the second inning.

Tampa Bay did have a couple chances to get even against Pomeranz, yet to no avail. In the third inning, Luke Maile lashed a one-out double to left-center, then went to third on a groundout. But Kevin Kiermaier flew out to left, ending the threat. Then in the fourth inning, Pomeranz got Corey Dickerson to ground into an inning-ending double play with runners at the corners and one out. For Dickerson, a player who has been very productive of late, that all important big hit escaped him at an incredibly crucial juncture in the ballgame.

Tampa Bay didn’t get another runner into scoring position until the seventh inning, when Dickerson hit a two-out ground-rule double to right-center off Robbie Ross Jr. (cough, three innings too late). Nick Franklin came in to pinch-hit against Matt Barnes, but popped out to short to end the frame.

The Rays had one last shot to win the ballgame in the ninth, and it all started with Evan Longoria’s double to left-center against Brad Ziegler. However, Brad Miller popped out to short, Mikie Mahtook struck out swinging on four pitches, and — after Dickerson was walked intentionally — Juniel Querecuto struck out to end the game. Boston’s five relievers (over the final four innings) held the Rays to two hits and two walks.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese (8-7, 4.41 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay on Saturday, opposite of Cy Young Award contender Rick Porcello (21-4, 3.08 ERA). Andriese has won consecutive starts for the first time since the beginning of June. He is 1-1 with 4.58 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Red Sox. Porcello has hurled at least seven innings and allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past 11 starts, tying Cy Young and Pedro Martinez for longest such streak in Red Sox history. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/24/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 1B
Dickerson LF
Franklin DH
Mahtook RF
Ramirez SS
Casali C
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

— Prior to the ballgame, the Rays handed out their franchise awards. Evan Longoria received two awards: the Don Zimmer Award as the Rays MVP, and the Paul C. Smith Champion Award, given to the Ray who best exemplifies the spirit of true professionalism on and off the field. LHP Blake Snell was named the Rays rookie of the year.