Rays vs Orioles series preview Archives

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part two

May 3, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

RHP Tyler Glasnow will get the start in the series opener against the Orioles on Friday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays will cap a three-city road trip in Baltimore, where they are set to start a three-game series against the Orioles on Friday. After sweeping the Red Sox in Boston, the Rays split a four-game set against the Royals in Kansas City. The Orioles are coming off a series loss against the White Sox.

Don’t let the fact that the Orioles 10-games below .500 record deceive you, they have been better than the Rays, offensively speaking, over the last 14 days — outperforming Tampa Bay in most of the important categories.

Baltimore’s pitching staff, however, leaves a lot to be desired — performing to an overall 5.89 ERA/6.19 FIP across the first 36 games of the season. The starting rotation hasn’t been good, yet the relievers haven’t done the team any favors, combining for a 6.27 ERA/6.13 FIP across 135 innings of work. The bullpen has given up 34 of the 74 total home runs relinquished by Oriole hurlers (46%), and almost half of all the runs given up by the entire pitching staff (93 of 197, 47%).

The Rays enter Oriole Park at Camden Yards having taken two out of three from the Orioles a few series ago … not to mention the Orioles are 3-10 at home this season. Tampa Bay needs to bust out of its offensive slump, and a three-game series against Baltimore might just be what the doctor ordered.

Rays Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (5-0, 1.75 ERA), and bulk guys Yonny Chirinos (4-0, 3.48 ERA) and Jalen Beeks (1-0, 2.45 ERA), both of whom will likely follow an opener. Brandon Hyde will respond with Dan Straily (1-1, 6.75 ERA), Dylan Bundy (0-4, 6.64 ERA), and John Means (3-3, 2.81 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out nine across 6-2/3 innings on Sunday. Glasnow was spotted an early four-run lead and left the ballgame with a 4-2 lead after giving up a run in each of his final innings of work. The right-hander, who was named the AL pitcher of the month, has been stellar through six starts this season, posting a 1.75 ERA to go along with a 0.94 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work.

Dan Straily gave up one run (unearned) over four innings on Saturday. He allowed three hits and one walk while fanning three in the Orioles 9-2 loss. The run came in the third inning on a single, an error and a sacrifice fly as the right-hander threw a hefty 89 pitches (55 strikes, 62% strike rate). Straily has compiled a 6.75 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP to go along with a 1.29 K/BB this season. The 30-year-old relies primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball, an 84 mph circle changeup that dives down and out of the zone, and an 84 mph extreme fly ball slider. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (1-4, 2B, BB), Tommy Pham (1-2, 2B, RBI), Mike Zunino (1-4, HR, RBI)

Yonny Chirinos struck out four and walked one and scattered two hits while giving up four runs (two earned) over 5-2/3 innings against the Royals. Chirinos followed Ryne Stanek as the opener and came within an out of a quality outing, tossing 73 pitches (46 strikes, 63% strike rate) en route to his fourth win of the season. The right-hander is putting up good numbers this season, sporting a solid 3.48 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 4.33 K/BB over 31 innings of work.

Dylan Bundy gave up four runs on five hits (including two home runs) and three walks while striking out eight over five innings on Sunday. Home runs have been a problem for Bundy, and he gave up two more solo shots in this outing. The right-hander induced 19 whiffs, however, he continues to allow too many baserunners and home runs to be effective. Bundy has a 6.67 ERA with a 2.62 K/BB over six starts this season (28-1/3 innings). The Rays got to Bundy in his last start at the Trop, tagging him for three runs on three hits (including a homer) and two walks over five innings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-4), Ji-Man Choi (1-2, 2B, 2 BB), Avaisail Garcia (5-9, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, 2 HR, 6 RBI, BB)

Jalen Beeks fired off 6-2/3 scoreless frames on Wednesday, allowing a hit, two walks, and a hit batsman. He fanned six. Beeks turned in a highly impressive performance after the opener, Ryne Stanek, gave up three earned runs over his sole inning of work. Beeks has excelled in the “bulk guy” role in two consecutive appearances, also blanking the Royals across 4-2/3 innings on April 23, racking up seven strikeouts along the way. The southpaw has put up good numbers, sporting an outstanding 2.45 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 2.6 K/BB across 25-2/3 innings of work

John Means yielded four runs on six hits and a walk over five innings on Monday. He struck out two batters and allowed two homers. Means hadn’t allowed more than one run in any of his seven appearances (three starts) prior to Monday’s outing, yet he has performed to a lucky .271 BABIP, which is belied by a 4.48 FIP. Put another way, he’s been very lucky this season. Means relies on a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball with a lot of backspin and an 80 mph changeup with slight cut action, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider with little depth, and a 76 mph 12/6 curveball.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Orioles — a series preview

April 16, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

That the Rays finished their nine-game road trip with a 7-2 record is reason enough to celebrate.

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles will open a three-game series starting Tuesday night at the Trop. The Rays are coming off a 7-2 road trip across three different time zones, while the Orioles are 3-7 over their last 10 games.

The first-place Rays are averaging 4.67 runs per game (RPG), ranking them 16th in the Majors. However, that RPG average increases to 5.75 when you take their first four games — when they averaged 2.75 runs — out of the equation. What’s more, despite a few blips and bumps, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff continues to shine, sporting a Major League-best 2.44 team ERA/2.80 team FIP.

The Orioles are currently averaging a respectable 4.44 RPG, ranking them 19th in MLB, yet Baltimore’s pitching staff has performed to a Major League-worst 6.30 team ERA/6.72 team FIP. Be that as it may, the Orioles been competitive on the road where they own a 6-4 record on the season.

The Rays posted an 11-8 record against the Orioles in 2018. In an ideal world, they need to improve by at least two games this season over last.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on starter Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 0.53 ERA), and likely bulk inning guys Ryan Yarbrough (2-1, 4.82 ERA), and Yonny Chirinos (2-0, 4.40 ERA). The order which they will be used, however, is still up in the air. New skipper Brandon Hyde will respond with Dylan Bundy (0-1, 8.76 ERA), David Hess (1-2, 3.32 ERA), and Andrew Cashner (3-1, 5.31 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow earned the win against Chicago on Wednesday by fanning 11 and allowing just two hits and one walk across six scoreless innings. The right-hander’s only trouble came during the third inning when he had a pair of runners in scoring position with only one out, yet Glasnow struck out Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu to end the threat. He has enjoyed a dominant first three starts to the season with a 7/1 K/BB across 17 innings.

Dylan Bundy allowed six runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts over five innings of a loss to Oakland on Thursday. The eight punch outs were impressive, yet Bundy suffered thanks to the long-ball. In his last 8-2/3 innings, Bundy has served up six homers. He has also yielded 15 hits in 12-1/3 innings of work thus far. Bundy relies primarily on his 91 mph four-seam fastball that has good “rising” action and a whiffy 81 mph slider with two-plane movement, while also mixing in an 84 mph changeup. Over nine career starts against the Rays, the right-hander is 3-4 with a 6.30 ERA and is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-4), Avisail Garcia (4-7), Kevin Kiermaier (4-9, 2 HR, 6 RBI, BB), Micahel Perez (1-3)

Ryan Yarbrough picked up the win after tossing two scoreless frames and striking out one on Friday. The southpaw was efficient on the mound, needing just 16 total pitches (12 strikes) to get through six batters. Yarbrough was coming off a disastrous outing Saturday against San Francisco (allowing four runs allowed across three innings) but managed to get back on track in the 11-7 victory.

David Hess allowed three runs on six hits while striking out three over 5-2/3 innings on Friday. He took the loss against Boston. Hess allowed a solo homer in the third inning and two more runs in the fourth, while the Orioles were held scoreless until the seventh. The 25-year-old right-hander came within an out of a quality start and pitched well enough to come away with the win, although he didn’t get enough run support. Hess owns a 3.32 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 19 frames in three starts this season. Hess relies primarily on his 94 mph four-seam fastball with added backspin and an 83 mph fly-ball coaxing slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup, and a 93 mph sinker with a little sink and arm-side run. He is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, and is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, 2B), Ji-Man Choi (2-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Yandy Diaz (1-2, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-4, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-3, 3B)

Yonny Chirinos was bereft of quality stuff in his last outing against Toronto, allowing six earned runs on seven hits (including a homer) across 2-1/3 innings of work. This after the right-hander allowed just one run across his previous 12-1/3 innings of work, while striking out 11. Chirinos needs to keep his sinker down in the zone and allow his pitches, which boast a ton of movement, to play off the batters aggressiveness.

Andrew Cashner is going for his fourth straight win of the season, following his most recent victory on Saturday against Boston, when the right-hander allowed three runs on three hits and three walks across five innings of work. Cashner relies primarily on his 94 mph four-seam fastball and an 86 mph cutter with heavy sink and strong cutting action, while also mixing in an 84 mph changeup, a firm 81 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and a 92 mph two-seam sinker with little sinking action. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, and 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: Guillermo Heredia (2-8, 2B, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6), Michael Perez (1-4, RBI), Daniel Robertson (3-4, 2B, RBI, BB)

The New What Next: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview

August 7, 2018 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The offense woke up in the series finale against the White Sox. Unfortunately, the pitching staff couldn’t contain Chicago’s “potent” offense. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series Tuesday night at Tropicana Field. The Rays are holding onto postseason aspirations by a thread after a disappointing series loss to the White Sox, while the Orioles are still a lot of games under .500. Still, Baltimore won the last three meetings against Tampa Bay a week-and-a-half ago.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay bounced back from a series loss against the Orioles by sweeping the Los Angeles Angels. Yet whatever momentum the team generated from the series win was for not, as the White Sox silenced the Rays over a dismal, three-game weekend series. The Orioles didn’t fare much better this weekend past, dropping three of four against the Rangers. They enter the Trop with a 14-43 road record.

(Stats Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Chicago’s success against Tampa Bay was due, in part, to the pitching staff leaning heavily on secondary offerings. And while the Rays put a lot of runners on the base paths, they couldn’t bring them in, going 6-29 with runners in scoring position — good for a .207 wRISP batting average. In contrast, Baltimore maintained its productive hitting against Texas, yet the hurlers couldn’t slow down the Rangers. The Rays hope for a similar outcome from the Orioles pitching staff, lest they continue their backslide toward irrelevancy.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.00 ERA), likely Jalen Beeks (1-0, 10.80 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Thursday. Buck Showalter will counter with Alex Cobb (3-14, 5.84 ERA), Andrew Cashner (3-10, 5.05 ERA), and David Hess (2-6, 6.44 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tyler Glasnow was impressive in his debut with the Rays, throwing three innings of one-run ball on 48 pitches (34 strikes, 71% strike rate, 21% SwStr rate). Glasnow allowed two hits (including a solo home run), one walk, and struck out five.

Fastball, curveball, slider today, I had a good feel for things, Glasnow said following the Rays’ win. I felt relaxed out there. Overall, the feel in this clubhouse is really good. It’s relaxed, it’s friendly.

Rays manager Kevin Cash had nothing but superlatives for the right-hander, saying,

Probably not going to (throw 70 percent strikes) all of the time. But a great start. If he’s featuring that kind of stuff at a 70 percent clip in the zone, he’s going to have a special career.

On Glasnow’s repertoire … The right-hander threw 24 of 35 four-seam fastballs for strikes (five whiffs), averaging 97.6 mph (and topping out at 99.5 mph); 3 of 5 sliders for strikes (1 whiff); and 7 of 8 curveballs for strikes (1 whiff). He was able to move his fastball all over the zone at will and played his off-speed stuff off of his heater.

The only real criticism for Glasnow, is that he left a fair number of hanging breaking pitches in hittable locations. One of those very hittable offerings was a 0-2 curveball that flattened out over the heart of the plate and was consequently hit into the Rays tank — thanks a lot, Kole Calhoun. Otherwise, it was an excellent introduction to the flame-throwing right-hander, who should have a longer leash his next time out.

Rays manager Kevin Cash said the goal is to get Glasnow through four innings as he continues to stretch out his arm.

Alex Cobb allowed one run on seven hits while fanning six across six innings as he secured his third victory of the season on Wednesday. The former Ray has turned it around on the hill of late, this despite a 5.83 ERA and 1.54 WHIP through 109-2/3 frames this season. Cobb has now surrendered seven runs over 23-1/3 innings (four starts) while recording 15 punch outs. Tampa Bay was able to get to the right-hander again on July 26, tagging him for four runs (three earned) on eight hits over six innings of work. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (1-3, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (2-3, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3, 2B), Michael Perez (1-2, 2B), Mallex Smith (3-5, 2B, BB), Joey Wendle (4-8, 2 RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed two earned runs on two hits and a walk over five innings on Thursday. He struck out four. Beeks didn’t exactly set a high bar in his debut against the Orioles on July 28th, allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits and three walks over 3-1/3 innings. Yet the southpaw looked considerably more composed over an efficient 71 pitches (47 strikes, 66% strike rate, 13/18 first-pitch strikes) Thursday, limiting the damage after Hunter Wood had been stellar over the first two innings as the opener. The key to Beeks’ bounce back success was two-fold: he got ahead of batters, and remained calm when things appeared like they might spiral out of control. He figures to be utilized in similar fashion Wednesday, with his ability to pitch multiple innings makes him a natural for the second-man-in role on “bullpen days.”

Andrew Cashner allowed 10 earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out one across just 1-2/3 innings in a loss on Thursday against the Rangers. Cashner only allowed one home run, yet five consecutive Rangers reached base in the second inning before he was chased from the game. Cashner had pitched well over a 52-inning stretch prior to Thursday’s game, performing to a 3.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP — although he only managed 31 strikeouts. In that stretch, the right-hander limited the Rays to two runs on five hits and three walks over six innings of work back on the 27th. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (1-3), CJ Cron (3-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Matt Duffy (4-16, 3B, RBI, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3), Michael Perez (1-2), Joey Wendle (2-5, 3B, RBI, BB)

I will update things when a starter in Thursday’s game is announced.

David Hess coughed up seven runs (five earned) on five hits and a walk over 3-1/3 innings while striking out four Rangers. While some shitty defense helped deflect the blow to Hess’s ratios, most of it was by the pitcher himself, as he committed two of the Orioles three errors on the night. Hess has split his time out of the ‘pen and the rotation this season, although a lack of arms necessitated the starter status. In three games against Tampa Bay, Hess is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA … but, that over just 13-2/3 innings of work. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-6, HR, 3 RBI), Joey Wendle (4-5, BB)

Noteworthiness

Medical Matters…

— Right-handed relief pitcher Chaz Roe threw live batting practice on Monday in Port Charlotte and hopes to begin a rehab assignment Thursday.

— UTL Daniel Robertson underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb Monday morning and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks, likely ending his season.

— OF Tommy Pham is feeling better after suffering a hairline fracture in his right foot last week, although he is still on the same 2-4 week timetable for his return.

The New What Next: Rays vs Orioles part four — a series preview

July 26, 2018 By belowaverage Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays left the confines of Tropicana Field after a 3-3 home stand, including another series win against the New York Yankees. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays head to Baltimore to battle the last place Orioles in a four-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, starting Thursday. The Rays rebounded from an ugly series loss against Miami to take two of three from the Yankees, while the Orioles split a rain shortened two-game set against Boston.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay made a pair of trades that will impact the team in the present and future tenses, dealing Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Andriese for southpaw Jalen Beeks, catcher Michael Pérez and RHP Brian Shaffer. Beeks and Pérez are expected to join the team on the road in Baltimore.

Pérez, 25, is highly regarded for his defensive prowess as well as his ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s gunned down 34.8% of would be base stealers this season, and is slashing .284 BA/.342 OBP/.417 SLG/.759 OPS/.338 wOBA/99 wRC+ with nine doubles, six homers and 29 RBI in 58 games for Triple-A Reno. He is a career .246 BA/.321 OBP/.396 SLG/.717 OPS hitter over 572 games across eight Minor League seasons.

In adding the new backstop to the roster, the Rays designated catcher Adam Moore for assignment. The tandem of Jesus Sucre and Pérez should, if anything, help maintain the team’s offensive productivity over the balance of the season, especially if Wilson Ramos is moved within the next month.

When Perez and Beeks appear in a game, that will mean the Rays have had 19 rookies play and 48 different players this season. The youth wave has been learning and winning at the same time.

The Rays enter the series as fringe contenders in the AL Wildcard race, which isn’t lost on General Manager Erik Neander. Yet they are expected to make a few more deals by the trade deadline, with SS Adeiny Hechavarria, OF Carlos Gomez, Ramos, and RHP Sergio Romo said to be on the market. Yet the moves shouldn’t be viewed as a team that is conceding or waiving the white flag, rather the Rays are working on the now rather than only the distant future.

I hope that the current look and feel of this team and this roster, that there’s a different vibe to our fans than there has been the last few years, Neander said. I really hope that. There is for us. There is in the clubhouse. Will we win more games this year than we did last year? I don’t know. But there’s a trend line on this, there’s an arrow that’s pointing up instead of neutral with this group and what’s ahead of them, and it gives a lot of hope and excitement for the future. And that’s different.

That changes the focus a little bit, to just being a little more balanced to the now than the future than I think we have been.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Rays enter the series with Baltimore nine games back in the AL Wildcard race with an easier schedule over than either the Mariners (13 series vs. +.500 teams) or Athletics (12 series vs. +500 teams) with just over two months left to play. A series win would give Tampa Bay a W/L record of five or six games over .500 by the time the returns home for a nine-game home stand against three sub .500 ball clubs. Meanwhile, the Athletics will move on to a series against the fringe contending Rockies, while the Mariners have a few games against the Angels before they face the AL West leading Houston Astros.

All this is to say the Rays find themselves with an excellent opportunity to gain some ground in the Wildcard race against the worst team in baseball, which happens to be in the throes of a historically bad season.

Pitching Probables

As of right now the Rays have confirmed one opener and one starter for the series: Hunter Wood (0-0, 2.93 ERA) and Chris Archer (3-4, 4.30 ERA). The known known, Jaylen Beeks (5-5, 2.89 ERA at AAA) is expected to pitch at some point during the series … I assumed that might be on Saturday, although that will likely change. I’ll update things as they become clear. Buck Showalter will counter with Alex Cobb (2-13, 6.17 ERA), Andrew Cashner (2-9, 4.40 ERA), Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.54 ERA), and Yefry Ramirez (1-3, 4.24 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Hunter Wood allowed one run on two hits and a walk while striking out two over two innings against the Yankees on Monday. Kevin Cash elected to use Wood as an opener for the second time this season, and he was lifted after tossing 37 pitches. Wood has been an effective arm out of the ‘pen this season, as he’s posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 14 strikeouts over 15-1/3 innings. However, 4.40 FIP suggest regression is due. Whatever the case, the right-handed Austin Pruitt or Ryan Yarbrough figure to pitch the bulk of the innings on Thursday.

Alex Cobb allowed four runs (one earned) on four hits and three walks against Toronto on Saturday. He struck out four. The former Ray got through three scoreless innings without really being threatened before he gave up three runs in a fourth inning in which Tim Beckham’s error played a key role. Since three of the four runs were unearned, Cobb lowered his ERA to a still-ugly 6.17. So far he is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts this season (10-1/3 innings) against his former team. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-6, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-4, 2B, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 2B), Joey Wendle (3-5, 2 RBI)

Chris Archer allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits while striking out 13 over six innings against the Marlins on Sunday. Archer collected a season-high 13 strikeouts in his 16th outing of the season and now sits with a 3.41 K/BB over 90 innings of work. Archer looks to improve his 4.30 ERA ahead of the trade deadline (it now appears the Rays may hold on to the right-hander).

Andrew Cashner allowed one run on six hits and one walk across 5-2/3 innings on Sunday. He struck out two. Cashner surrendered his lone run in the fourth inning, and he was lifted from the game in the sixth inning after throwing 79 pitches (51 strikes, 65% strike rate). While Cashner improved on his previous outing (five runs over 6-1/3 innings vs. the Yankees), he couldn’t collect the victory. The 31-year-old is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against the Rays this season after allowing five runs on 11 hits and four walks over five innings on May 26. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Matt Duffy (4-16, 3B, RBI, 2 BB), Daniel Robertson (3-3, 2B), Joey Wendle (1-3, 3B, RBI)

Jaylen Beeks is 34-28 with a 3.63 ERA in parts of five Minor League seasons, including a 5-5 record and a 3.29 ERA with Triple-A Pawtucket this season. He had two appearances for Boston in 2018, but he didn’t fare too well. In his first start against Detroit, Beeks allowed six runs over four innings of work, and in a relief appearance against the Rangers he allowed three runs in 2-1/3 innings. Yet in in Triple-A, he was named to the All-Star Game thanks in part to a 33% strikeout rate which leads qualified pitchers in the league. He’s also only walking seven percent of opposing batters.

Stuff wise, Beeks previously relied on a two-seam fastball and a slider at the start of his career, although he currently relies on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, a whiffy 86 mph changeup, a 75 mph curveball with sharp downward bite, and an 88 mph cutter with good “rise,” which has aided in his growth.

Kevin Gausman gave up five runs on three hits and three walks while striking out two over 4-2/3 innings on Monday against the Red Sox. Gausman allowed a second inning solo homer, followed by four runs in the fifth on just three hits. He exited the ballgame with a five-run deficit after tossing 79 pitches (44 strikes, 56% strike rate). The right-hander has struggled over his past two outings, surrendering 10 runs over 9-2/3 innings while striking out just four. Gausman is 1-1 in two starts this season against Tampa Bay. In his first outing he surrendered just two runs on 11 hits over 7-1/3 innings of work, but his second start against the Rays didn’t go nearly as well, as Gausman allowed seven runs on six hit over 2-2/3 innings on May 27. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (5-15, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-4), Mallex Smith (3-12, 3B, RBI, BB), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-6, RBI)

Tampa Bay’s starter in the series finale is TBA.

Yefry Ramirez allowed three runs on four hits and a walk over five innings against the Red Sox on Tuesday. He struck out six. Ramirez gave up three solo home runs but otherwise earned his first big league win against one of the top offenses in baseball. The 24-year-old has been solid through his first six starts with a 3.49 ERA/4.61 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and 3.00 K/BB over 28-1/3 innings. This season he has relied primarily on his 87 mph cutter with strong cutting action, an 83 mph changeup and a 90 mph sinker with some armside run, while also mixing in a 91 mph four-seam fastball and an 83 mph slider.

The New What Next: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part three

May 25, 2018 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Willy Adames was optioned back to Triple-A Durham on Thursday, while Joey Wendle was reinstated from paternity leave. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After salvaging the final game of their previous set against Boston, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Baltimore Orioles into Tropicana Field, where they are set to start a three-game series on Friday. So far the two teams have split the six games between each other this season.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays offense has been inconsistent this season, although in all fairness they have been pitched against really well — something that became evident in their recent trio of losses against the Angels and Red Sox. Tampa Bay started the season as one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but got the offense going after the inauspicious 3-12 start, especially against teams outside of Boston, who they are 19-14 against. Thursday’s win capped a three-game losing skid.

The Orioles continued their rough start against the South-Siders, who they split a four-game series with. While they outpace the Rays in home runs (60) — and in spite of the 17-1 throttling levied on Tampa Bay a couple of weeks back — the O’s have been poor on offense, ranked 26th in the league in scoring; averaging just 3.92 runs per game while batting a combined .232. They haven’t been much better on the mound, performing to a combined 5.13 ERA, while ranking dead last in WHIP at 1.54. The pen hasn’t been much better, starting the series with a combined 4.49 ERA.

All this is to say that if the Rays want to get to where they think they should be, they MUST exact some revenge on the birds this weekend, and in the very least win the series.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on the hybrid ‘pen/starting rotation model* this weekend. So far we know that Sergio Romo (1-0, 4.34 ERA) will get the start on Friday and Sunday, while Ryne Stanek (0-0, 5.40 ERA) will toe the rubber on Saturday. It is thought that Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.54 ERA), Anthony Banda (0-0, 5.40 ERA) and the recently promoted Vidal Nuno (3-1, 3.57 ERA) will be the long-men over the span of the series. Buck Showalter will counter with David Hess (1-1, 6.75 ERA), Andrew Cashner (2-5, 4.72 ERA), and Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.48 ERA).

We will update things if something different becomes apparent.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Sergio Romo started in back-to-back games against the Angels last weekend, throwing 2-1/3 innings of shutout baseball with six strikeouts, two walks and no hits among the nine batters he faced. Right-handers are hitting .196 off him this season. The right-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.34 ERA in 20 games overall, but 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA/1.34 FIP over the last 14 days.

Ryan Yarbrough took the mound after Romo on May 19th, and allowed just three hits and a walk over the next six frames, collecting four punch outs. During that stretch he allowed just two batters to reach over the minimum, while only one runner got into scoring position in the fourth inning. Yarbrough ended that frame by coaxing a fly-ball out to center from Andrelton Simmons.

David Hess gave up five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) over 4-2/3 innings against the Red Sox on May 20th. Moreover, he has allowed eight earned runs on 14 hits (including four homers) and two walks while striking out seven in two starts this season (10-2/3 innings). Hess was 30-28 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 96 games (90 starts) over five seasons in the minors, including 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Norfolk this season. Hess has relied upon a 92 mph fastball that lacks horizontal movement and tends to get barreled up when it’s elevated, an 83 mph slider with hard tilt with sweeping action that he uses as his put-away pitch, a 75 mph get-me-over curveball with mild depth and spin, and an 84 mph changeup that lacks the movement to provide deception against opposing batters. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Matt Duffy (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (1-3), Joey Wendle (3-3)

Ryne Stanek has allowed two home runs in six appearances (five innings), including a grand slam to Manny Machado on May 11th. Still, Stanek’s much improved splitter offsets his four-seam fastball, although his .437 wOBA against right-handers leaves a lot to be desired — as does the fact that he tends to give up medium-to-hard contact. I imagine that he will be a one and done pitcher on Saturday.

Anthony Banda has allowed five runs on nine hits (including a home run) and two walks over 8-1/3 combined innings against the Royals and Angels this season.

Andrew Cashner allowed two runs on eight hits and thee walks over five innings on Monday. He struck out four. In spite of a none too efficient outing, Cashner made the big pitch when he needed to, and was helped out by an outfield assist at home plate as well. His inability to keep runners off base, however, looks like it will be a problem all season long. Cashner hasn’t walked fewer than two batters in a start yet, and has struggled mightily to keep his pitch counts down even when he’s been on his game. This season he has relied primarily on his 93 mph sinker using a two-seam fastball grip and a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a hard 82 mph 12-6 curveball, an 88 mph cutter with natural sink, and an 84 mph changeup. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-2, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (4-13, 3B, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (2-4, RBI, 2 BB), Denard Span (7-22, 2B, 5 RBI, BB)

Vidal Nuno was recalled from Triple-A Durham on Wednesday. He posted a 3-1 record with a 3.57 ERA and 3.70 FIP with the Bulls. Per FanGraphs,

He’s (nuno) a strike-thrower. He’s thrown strikes as both a starter and as a reliever, and while he’s never been a swing-and-miss type, his contact rates haven’t been terrible. On top of that, when Nuno moved to the bullpen, his stuff didn’t really play up. It’s easier, then, to imagine him as a starter again, throwing the same pitches around the same speeds. Don’t be too turned off by his home-run rates — he just allowed the same average exit velocity as Justin Verlander and Johnny Cueto. I don’t think it’s a stretch to look at Nuno and think he has some shot of being another Wei-Yin Chen. The core abilities there are pretty similar.

Kevin Gausman fanned 10 in 6-1/3 scoreless innings on Tuesday. He allowed nine hits and one walk in the no-decision against. Gausman was staked to a two-run lead when he left the game, but Baltimore’s ‘pen gave it up. This was Gausman’s sixth quality start on the season, and perhaps his most impressive of all, as he recorded a career-high 25 swinging strikes against a befuddled White Sox lineup. He now has an excellent 3.87 K/BB and 3.48 ERA over 62 innings of work. He allowed two runs on 11 hits over 7-1/3 innings against Tampa Bay on the 11th, and is 6-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays. Seven of those starts came at the Trop, where he is 3-3 with a 3.46 ERA. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (5-14, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-4), Wilson Ramos (3-12, HR, RBI), Rob Refsnyder (3-8, 2B, BB), Mallex Smith (3-10, 3B, BB), Denard Span (6-13, 3 2B, 3 RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, 1 RBI), Joey Wendle (1-4)

Noteworthiness

— *Curious about the Rays new approach to pitching? We’ll have analysis of the move this weekend.

— OF Carlos Gomez (groin strain) ran and took batting practice with no issues. He will play in an extended Spring Training game Friday in Port Charlotte and, if all goes well, come off the DL Saturday or Sunday.

— RHP Nathan Eovaldi (arthroscopic elbow surgery) came through his fourth and final rehab outing Thursday feeling fine, although he gave up 10 hits for Triple-A Durham. He’s expected to join the rotation Monday or Tuesday in Oakland.

— SS Willy Adames was optioned back to Triple-A Durham after the game Thursday, with INF Joey Wendle returning from a three-day paternity leave.

Adames told reporters he appreciated the opportunity and felt like he learned a lot during his three-game stint. Adames went 2-12 with six strikeouts over his three games stint, hitting a homer off Chris Sale and throwing Eduardo Nunez out at home. However, he also made a costly ninth-inning throwing error Wednesday that led to three runs.