X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Rays 5, Yankees 3

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Ji-Man Choi had a big night Monday, including a first-inning two-run homer off Gerrit Cole.

Tyler Glasnow followed his 13 strikeout gem a start ago against Baltimore by spinning another fantastic start, while the offense tagged Gerrit Cole for four runs en route to the Tampa Bay Rays sixth consecutive win, 5-3 over the New York Yankees.

The Rays walked out of New Yankee Stadium a season-high 14 games over .500, and 4-1/2 games ahead of New York in the AL East.

Glasnow got the start posted six innings of scoreless ball against New York, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out nine on 87 pitches (55 strikes, 63% strike rate). The right-hander kept the Yankees’ offense off-balance for most of the night by leaning on all three of his pitches. He threw his 97 mph four-seam fastball 55 times, his curveball 24 times (nine swings and misses, 16% SwStr%) — eight at-bats ended on the curveball, resulting in seven K’s and a groundout — and eight 92 mph changeups which he threw to whomever regardless of handedness. All told, New York hit just four hard-hit balls against Glasnow.

I just feel like every time he gets on the mound, especially his last couple starts, he’s figured something out — I’m playing behind greatness out there. I am.

Watching what he does and how silly he makes guys look every inning he’s out there, it’s incredible.

— Kevin Kiermaier

Offensively, the Rays pounced on Cole’s mistakes which proved costly for the +$300-million man, as his time on the mound was limited to just five innings and an incredibly inefficient 103 pitches.

In the first inning, after the right-hander retired the first two batters, Yandy Diaz lined a single off the wall in right then went to second when Clint Frazier bobbled the ball for an error. Ji-Man Choi — who entered play 7-15 against Cole with three doubles and two home runs — lined a 1-2 slider into the seats in right for a two-run homer.

One inning later, Kevin Kiermaier unleashed his second homer in as many days, this time a 411-foot blast to right that registered 110 mph off his bat.

The Rays added on a run in the fifth inning. Choi walked to lead off the frame before Willy Adames singled to left. Joey Wendle was hit on the foot by a 95 mph 0-2 fastball, loading the bases and bringing Manuel Margot to the plate. The outfielder singled to center, putting Tampa Bay up by four. Yet, Adames was held up by Rodney Linares at third, while Wendle was thrown out between second and third when centerfielder Brett Gardner lucked out and accidentally threw the ball in behind him. That stopped the Rays from tacking on more in the frame.

But after chasing Cole in the fifth, the Rays added one more run an inning later. Reliever Nick Nelson took over for Cole in the sixth, and Choi singled home Randy Arozarena, who initially reached base a single before he swiped second.

The beleaguered hackneyed Yankees crew were not completely silent though, and they were able to rally against relative newcomer Edgar Garcia late in the game.

In the seventh inning, Gio Urshela hit a leadoff homer to right, drawing the Yankees within four. An inning later, DJ LeMahieu looped a single to right before Luke Voit drilled a 3-1, two-run bullet to left, cutting the deficit to two. Kevin Cash had seen enough from the former Phillie and called upon Pete Fairbanks, who gave up a one-out single to Clint Frazier but nothing more.

Finally, in the ninth inning, Cash went with Diego Castillo to close things out for the fourth time this season. Aaron Hicks collected a one-out pinch-hit single against the shift, however, Gardner embarrassed himself went down swinging on three pitches, including a nasty slider that cut off the plate and in on him. LeMahieu ended the game on a chopped comebacker, earning Castillo his third save in four attempts.

The New What Next

Game two of the set will take place Tuesday with Masahiro Tanaka (0-1, 3.48 ERA) on the mound for New York. Trevor Richards (0-0, 5.14 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay.

Trevor Richards allowed two runs (one earned) over 4-1/3 innings in a 4–3 win over Baltimore onAugust 26th. He struck out three on 86 total pitches. This is the third time that Richards is facing New York. He gave up two runs across three innings the last time he faced them. Richards hasn’t pitched more than 4-1/3 innings in an outing this year, but an efficient outing could certainly get him through five frames.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed three hits and no walks while fanning four across five scoreless innings on Wednesday in Atlanta. Tanaka was dominant, allowing just a trio of base hits in his time on the mound. Tanaka was pulled after only 66 pitches as he felt he was running out of energy. Tanaka has completed five innings of work in only two of his five starts this season, although they have been high quality. The Rays dusted Tanaka up back on August 18, tagging the right-hander for six runs (five earned) on eight hits including two homers. He now maintains a 3.48 ERA with a 5.67:1 K:BB across 20-2/3 frames this season. Key Matchups: Michael Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (11-37, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR), Austin Meadows (5-15, 2 HR), Micahel Perez (1-4), Joey Wendle (4-14, 2 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — one last series preview

Rays 9/1/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Choi 1B
  2. B. Lowe 2B
  3. Wendle 3B
  4. Meadows RF
  5. Tsutsugo DH
  6. Adames SS
  7. Kiermaier CF
  8. Margot LF
  9. Perez C

Noteworthiness

— Both Yandy Diaz and Ji-Man Choi left Monday night’s game. Choi left because of stomach issues, while Diaz left midway through the game with right hamstring tightness. After an MRI in New York this morning, Diaz was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain and consequently placed on the 10-day IL. Nate Lowe, who was on the taxi squad, has been added to the roster.

— The Rays announced that their 2019 top draft pick, Greg Jones, has been added to the 60-man player pool and has reported to the alternate site. He joins Brendan McKay and Brent Honeywell Jr. as the most recent additions to the 60-man player pool.

TNWN: Rays vs Marlins — a Citrus Series preview

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Justice. Equality. Now. ‘Nuff said. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After an abbreviated two-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, punctuated by a postponement of the third and final game of the previously scheduled three-game set, the Tampa Bay Rays departed the friendly confines of Tropicana Field for Miami, where they will start a three-game, interleague series against the Marlins on Friday. The Marlins took two-of-three from the Mets.

Before we continue, I think this moment in history deserves acknowledgment. The Rays participated in an act of protest in support of the fight for social justice and to end systemic racism, joining 13 other big-league teams that did the same. In light of the postponement, the Rays made a public comment, which can be seen above.

For what it’s worth, we here at X-Rays Spex cut our teeth on political punk rock and the fight against racism, sexism, homophobia, and transphobia. And while this isn’t a music blog, the morals and values we embraced back then, by way of the DIY punk scene, remain with us to this day. What’s more, we are BIPOC Rays fans and bloggers (I am Lebanese and Spanish), and because of it, the view that systemic racism isn’t a thing, or doesn’t exist, seems nonsensical. Personally, I have experienced it first hand. F**k white supremacy, and f**k systemic racism. And if that triggers you, feel free to unfollow X-Rays Spex. Now, back to the series preview.

The Rays enter play a season-high 10 games over .500 and with a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs with 28 games left to play according to FanGraphs.

Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last few weeks. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and stretched their American League East lead to 2-1/2 games over the Yankees on Wednesday when New York was swept by Atlanta in a doubleheader.

Kevin Kiermaier left in the middle of an at-bat during Wednesday’s contest and is listed as day-to-day. It isn’t yet known if he will hit the Injured List, in which case he would likely be replaced by newcomer Brett Phillips.

Miami has won three of its last four games. They find themselves in second place in the National League East, and they would qualify for the postseason if the season ended today. Yet, Fangraphs gives them just a 31.8% chance of a playoff berth, thanks in part to an inconsistent offense. Jonathan Villar leads the team with 28 hits and nine RBI this season, although he has struck out 29 times in 103 at-bats. Former Ray Jesús Aguilar has 26 hits to his credit and a team-high 20 RBI. Aguilar is tied with third baseman Brian Anderson for the team-lead in home runs with four.

For whatever reason, even though the Marlins are a chronically beleaguered team, Citrus Series games are always tight affairs. Even so, the Rays swept the Marlins in last season’s iteration, four games to none.

Rays Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 4.45 ERA), Josh Fleming (1-0, 3.60 ERA), and Blake Snell (2-0, 3.04 ERA). Don Mattingly is expected to counter with Sixto Sanchez (1-0, 5.40 ERA), Pablo Lopez (3-1, 1.98 ERA), and Daniel Castano (0-2, 4.11 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 6-1/3 innings on Frida. Yarbrough’s previous start was cut short due to rain, but he matched his longest start of the season Friday by going 6-1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the four runs he gave up in the second inning forced him to settle for his third straight no-decision. To his credit, Yarbrough locked it in from that point on and was fairly effective outside of the second inning. He now carries a 4.45 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 30-1/3 innings (six starts).

Sixto Sanchez allowed three runs on six hits over five innings on Saturday, in his big league debut. He struck out four without walking a batter. Sanchez flashed the velocity that’s made him a top prospect as he popped 100 mph on the radar gun four times in the first inning alone. He also showed good control, throwing 46 of 66 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate), although he caught too much of the plate as the Nats launched two home runs off of him. It was still a very impressive start to his career. Sanchez relies primarily on a 97 mph two-seam fastball power sink and a four-seamer that climbs into triple digits, while also mixing in a changeup that dives at the plate, and a hard slider that can be a plus pitch at times.

Josh Fleming got the start and allowed two runs on four hits and two walks across five solid innings. He struck out three on 72 pitches (41 strikes, 57% strike rate, 22% SwStr%). The southpaw allowed a solo homer to Teoscar Hernandez in the second inning, and an RBI single to Travis Shaw in the fourth. Yet he was also able to work around a double in the fifth, and his day ended with the Tampa Bay trailing by a pair. Fortunately for Fleming, the Rays plated three runs in the bottom of the frame to leave him in line to pick up his first career win. With Yonny Chirinos on the shelf, Fleming showed that he is perfectly capable of pitching in the big leagues.

Pablo Lopez allowed six hits and two walks while striking out three over five scoreless frames on Monday night against Washington. Lopez dealt with plenty of traffic on the basepaths, although he managed to exit the contest staked to a 7-0 lead. The right-hander tossed 16 of the 23 first-pitch strikes. Lopez has looked sharp in five starts this season, allowing two runs or fewer in each outing, good enough for a 1.98 ERA to go along with a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.86 K:BB over 27-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 94 mph four-seam fastball, an 87 mph changeup, and a 94 mph sinker, while also mixing in a 91 mph cutter, and a 79 mph curveball. Lopez is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in one career start against the Rays.

Blake Snell allowed two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out nine over 5-2/3 innings on Monday against the Blue Jays. Snell one run in the third on a double and another in the sixth on a solo homer before exiting the game with a one-run lead. It was positive to see Snell rack up nine punchies after fanning just three in his last outing Tuesday in New York. Over six starts this season (23-2/3 IP), Snell owns a 3.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 32 strikeouts.

Daniel Castano allowed six hits and three walks over 4-2/3 shutout innings during the first game of a doubleheader against the Mets on Tuesday. The 25-year-old threw 23 pitches during his start Saturday, came back on two days of rest to start Tuesday’s matinee, and ended up one out short of qualifying for the win. Castano has a 4.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 1:1 K:BB across 15-1/3 innings as a fill-in starter for the Marlins. He relies primarily on a 90 mph worm-killer four-seam fastball with heavy sink, an 80 mph slider with glove-side cut and two plane action, and an 82 mph changeup with slight cut action, while also mixing in an 89 mph sinker. Castano has never faced the Rays.

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview

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Someone should’ve told Ozzie not to test the arms of the Rays.

After splitting an Interleague series against Atlanta, the Tampa Bay Rays make their way to Charm City, where they will start a three-game set against the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore most recently dropped a pair to the Yankees.

Tampa Bay enters play having plated 38 runs through seven games (first place in the American League in runs scored), however, they rank 12th in the AL with a .219 team batting average. The Rays are also outside the top-10 in slugging percentage with a tepid .388. “How did they score all those runs?” you might be asking. They get on base at a fairly healthy .322 OBP clip, and with the exception of the Opening Series, the Rays have done a good job with runners in scoring position, hitting .298 — including .320 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

Juxtapose that with Baltimore, which enters the set scoring exactly five runs per game across five contests. That isn’t going to cut it in the AL East. However, both teams share something: with just seven homers apiece, both are in the bottom five in the AL as it relates to home runs. In all fairness, the Orioles have had an uneven schedule given the number of COVID-19 postponments they’ve faced…it isn’t easy to get consistent at-bats when you’re not playing games.

The Rays are coming off two offensively strapped contests which led to two consecutive losses. As the old adage goes, “You need to take advantage of the bad teams,” and Baltimore is one of the weakest teams Tampa Bay will play this season. A series win would be the cake, while a sweep would be the icing.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (0-0, 0.00 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 2.25 ERA), and Yonny Chirinos (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Brandon Hyde will counter with former Ray Alex Cobb (1-0, 1.69 ERA), Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 6.35 ERA), and a pitcher to be named ahead of the series finale.

Blake Snell allowed three hits and two walks while striking out five across two scoreless innings on Sunday. The lefty punched out the first two batters he faced, using a heavy dose of fastballs, yet he also struggled with location — throwing only four of 11 first-pitch strikes. Snell’s first start of the season was scheduled to be short, but he did not work efficiently which shortened that outing even further; he retired just six batters. If he can improve his command on Friday, expect a longer leash for the southpaw hurler. Snell is 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA in five starts against the Orioles, and 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA in two career starts at Camden Yards.

Alex Cobb — the former Ray that has oft been injured the last few seasons — allowed just one run on four hits and no walks while striking out six across 5-1/3 innings against Boston. Cobb cruised through the first five innings with a three-hit shutout, but he was pulled at 78 pitches with one out in the sixth inning after surrendering a solo homer to Mitch Moreland. It was his first victory since 2018 after making just three starts last season. Cobb is 0-3 with a 4.63 ERA in four career starts against his former team. Key Matchups: Michael Perez (1-4, 2B), Joey Wendle (4-11), Mike Zunino (5-10, 2B, HR)

Tyler Glasnow was absolutely dominant over the front four innings, allowing just one hit — a solo homer to Dansby Swanson — and two walks while striking out nine. Leaning heavily on his big fastball — which he got up to 100.1 mph in the first inning — his 12-6 curveball which induced some awkward swings and misses, and a handful of mid-90’s changeups (!!!), Glasnow retired the last seven batters in a row — punching out five of them — including the side in the fourth inning. Glasnow threw 72 pitches, 45 for strikes, and coaxed 15 swings and misses (63% strike rate, 33% whiff rate).

Swanson opened the scoring in the second inning by hitting a home run to centerfield on a 98.8 mph 3-2 fastball — the fastest Glasnow pitch that’s ever been hit for a home run.

Wade LeBlanc allowed four runs on four hits and no walks while striking out four over 5-2/3 innings on Sunday against the Red Sox. LeBlanc wasn’t particularly dominant in his start, but an early-game offensive onslaught by the Orioles put him in line for the win in his season debut. Last season, the southpaw logged a 5.71 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 121-1/3 innings in 26 appearances (eight starts). LeBlanc relies primarily on a whiffy 78 mph changeup with some natural sink to it, an 83 mph cutter boasting strong cutting action, and an 87 mph sinker, while also mixing in a whiffy 71 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement. He is 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in three career outings (15-2/3 innings) against Tampa Bay.

Yonny Chirinos missed two weeks of Summer Camp due to COVID-19, and because of it, questions surrounded the right-hander as he took the mound … questions regarding his pitch count, command and control of his stuff, and stamina. And though he threw just one first-pitch strike to the first nine batters (7-of-17 overall), Chirinos was able to maintain his composure and turn in a fairly effective outing, allowing one unearned run on four hits and two walks while striking out four on 68 pitches (41 strikes, 60% strike rate).

It doesn’t hurt that he was helped by double plays in each of the first two scoreless frames, including a strike ’em out, throw ’em out twin killing in the first.

Yet, Chirinos ran into trouble in the third inning when Ender Inciarte reached on Ji-Man Choi’s error, then went to third on Alex Jackson’s double to left, his first big-league hit. Ronald Acuña Jr. earned a base loading free pass before Chirinos was able to strike out both Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. Still, Marcell Ozuna drove in the game’s first run on a base hit to left, although Matt Adams popped out to cap the rally at just one run. Chirinos threw 31 pitches in the frame but finished his outing with a clean eight-pitch fourth.

TBA

LBWMF: Rays win fourth straight, 5-2 over Atlanta

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Ozzie Albies tried to get aggressive on the basepaths Tuesday night. It didn’t work out in his favor. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A five-run, two-out rally and a solid outing by Yonny Chirinos in his first start of the season helped propel the Tampa Bay Rays to their fourth consecutive win on Tuesday, 5-2 over Atlanta. The Rays finished their first homestand of the season with four wins and one loss, and a +14 run differential overall and versus Atlanta.

Chirinos missed two weeks of Summer Camp due to COVID-19, and because of it, questions surrounded the right-hander as he took the mound … questions regarding his pitch count, command and control of his stuff, and stamina. And though he threw just one first-pitch strike to the first nine batters (7-of-17 overall), Chirinos was able to maintain his composure and turn in a fairly effective outing, allowing one unearned run on four hits and two walks while striking out four on 68 pitches (41 strikes, 60% strike rate).

It doesn’t hurt that he was helped by double plays in each of the first two scoreless frames, including a strike ’em out, throw ’em out twin killing in the first.

Yet, Chirinos ran into trouble in the third inning when Ender Inciarte reached on Ji-Man Choi’s error, then went to third on Alex Jackson’s double to left, his first big-league hit. Ronald Acuña Jr. earned a bases loading free pass before Chirinos was able to strike out both Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. Still, Marcell Ozuna drove in the game’s first run on a base hit to left, although Matt Adams popped out to cap the rally at just one run. Chirinos threw 31 pitches in the frame but finished his outing with a clean eight-pitch fourth.

Meanwhile, the Rays answered Atlanta in the bottom of the third to the tune of five runs. Down by a run, Tampa Bay rallied against Kyle Wright who previously cruised through the first two innings. …And they did so with two outs.

Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz each drew free passes to load the bases for Yoshi Tsutsugo, who plated a pair of runs on a single to right-center, pushing Tampa Bay in front.

Then José Martínez kept the line moving with a bloop single to left, increasing the lead to two.

Joey Wendle followed with a hard-hit single through the right side, chasing Wright and putting the Rays up 4-1.

Finally, Josh Tomlin, who entered in relief, uncorked a 1-1 wild pitch which allowed Martínez to score from third, capping the rally.

I think the momentum was started with the way we got through the top of the third. That’s kind of the ballgame.

— Kevin Cash

With Chirinos out of the game, Pete Fairbanks went to work in the fifth, pitching around a single by Jackson, by fanning Acuña Jr., Albies, and Freeman.

Ryan Thompson was next. While he was able to post a perfect sixth, the following inning was not nearly as kind to the righty. Johan Camargo walked on a 3-2 pitch before Inciarte grounded a ball wide of first. Choi dived and scooped the grounder, but jammed his shoulder as he hit the ground — consequently throwing the ball into left-field and putting runners at first at second. Choi eventually left the game due to shoulder soreness and is listed as day-to-day.

I don’t think so. We’ll see and check on him. He jammed his shoulder on that funky play when he went down and made a nice play, but threw it a little wide of Joey. When he hit the turf, (the shoulder) kind of jammed.

— Kevin Cash, on the seriousness of Choi’s injury

Jackson grounded into a 6-4-3 double play, moving a runner into third, yet Acuña Jr. worked a two-out walk, necessitating a pitching change. Nick Anderson entered the game and allowed an RBI single to right off the bat Albies, but struck out Freeman to limit the damage and keep the Rays up by three. That was as close as Atlanta would get.

Chaz Roe had a perfect eighth complete with a few frisbee sliders…

… while Oliver Drake (and his mustache) did the same in the ninth for his second save of the season.

The New What Next

Tampa Bay and Atlanta will continue the home-and-away series in Cobb County on Wednesday. Charlie Morton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) will take the mound, pitching opposite of Mike Soroka (0-0, 0.00 ERA).

Charlie Morton started his last outing strong, pounding the zone and throwing 22 of his first 28 pitches for strikes across three scoreless frames. Yet Toronto Buffalo was able to breakthrough in the fourth inning when things unraveled for the right-hander.

Cavan Biggio led things off with a first-pitch drag bunt single wide of first, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with a base hit to the right of second on the very next pitch, putting a runner in scoring position with none out. Travis Shaw worked the count full before he walked on a borderline full-count curveball that appeared to be on the black to everyone by Joe West, the home plate umpire. With the bases loaded, Randall Grichuk lined an RBI single to left to put the Jays up by one. Rowdy Tellez and Teoscar Hernandez followed with back-to-back sacrifice flies to center and left, capping the rally.

Toronto Buffalo chased Morton in the top of the fifth inning and consequently the game out of reach. Danny Jansen and Scott Stapp lookalike, Bo Bichette, hit back-to-back base hits to right-field and right-center (respectively) to put two on and none out. Morton appeared to be laboring through his at-bat against Biggio and quickly fell behind 3-1. He attempted to get back into the count, yet the right-hander left a mistake fastball over the plate which Biggio pounced on — lining a homer into the right-field seats and putting the Blue Jays up by five. Morton is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA in six career starts against his former team.

Mike Soroka tossed six scoreless innings in Friday’s loss to the Mets although he didn’t factor into the decision. The right-hander allowed four hits and no walks while striking out three. Soroka posted a 2.68 ERA and a 6.76 K/BB across 174-2/3 innings in 2019. He relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action, an 82 mph slider, and a 91 mph sinker with slight arm-side run and has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in a whiffy 81 mph changeup with a lot of backspin and slight arm-side fade. Soroka has never faced the Rays.

You can read about the series in our preview, while tonight’s starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

The New What Next: Rays vs Atlanta — a four-game series preview

Rays 7/29/20 Starting Lineup

  1. B. Lowe 2B
  2. Wendle 3B
  3. Diaz 1B
  4. Tsutsugo DH
  5. Margot LF
  6. Kiermaier CF
  7. Renfroe RF
  8. Adames SS
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays added 26 swinging strikes on Tuesday, pushing the team total to 113.

I think we have a really good staff. I think we have a really good team, and the goal for us is to win every game.

— Yonny Chirinos

— 16 of Tampa Bay’s 33 runs over the homestand came with two outs, including all five runs on Tuesday.

— After going 5-for-28 with runners in scoring position (.179 BA) against Toronto Buffalo, the Rays have gone 7-for-12 wRISP (.583 BA) in the last two games against Atlanta.

— In the words of Juan Toribio (MLB.com), “The Rays’ offense also entered Tuesday’s game with an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph, the fourth highest in the AL. Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game — despite being without All-Star outfielder Austin Meadows.”

— Austin Meadows, who recently returned from the Injured List, hit in the batting cages of the team’s Port Charlotte complex, threw to 120 feet, did defensive drills, and took four at-bats in a simulated game on Tuesday. Additionally, Randy Arozarena has been cleared to return to baseball activity and will begin a rehab assignment at the alternate training site. Both outfielders had been sidelined with COVID-19.

MLB and the MLBPA come to an agreement on the 2020 season; notes on expansion

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Home turf: something every Tampa Bay Rays fan is missing right about now. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association reached a deal on Thursday addressing many questions facing baseball in the wake of the COVID-19 shutdown, including how a shortened (or perhaps a canceled) 2020 season.

As Mark Polishuk and Tim Dierkes (MLB Trade Rumors) write, “The specifics of this agreement still aren’t fully known, due in part to the ongoing fluidity of how baseball and the players’ union will have to adjust to future events, though we’ve already learned quite a few ways in which the sport’s structure will be altered for this wholly unique season.”

The deal does address salary and service-time issues, among others, as the baseball world continues to wait out the COVID-19 pandemic. Mark Feinsand (MLB.com) listed the key issues discussed:

Both MLB and the MLBPA are committed to playing as many regular-season games as possible, leaving open the possibility of the schedule going into October and the postseason being played into November.

No agreements were made regarding the schedule, but given the current uncertainty, the deal leaves enough flexibility for the two sides to work together toward that shared goal. Both MLB and the MLBPA have formed subcommittees to continue discussing any unresolved issues related to the 2020 season.

The Commissioner’s Office will put together a schedule at the appropriate time, then the union will have input before it is finalized. The postseason format could also be altered for 2020, including the prospect of some games being played at neutral sites.

Players will, however, collect prorated service time based on the number of days on the roster or injured list. A regular year of service time is 172 days, so regardless of how many games are played in 2020, a player who is on the roster or IL for the entirety of the season will accrue 172 days of service time.

In the absolute worst-case scenario of a canceled season, players will receive the same service time they did in 2019, which would allow players who are one year or less from free agency — a group that includes Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer and J.T. Realmuto — to become free agents next fall no matter what.

All suspensions of 80-or-fewer games will be served in 2020 if games are played. Should the season be canceled, those suspensions would not carry over to 2021.

The union voted to accept the deal Thursday, while the owners voted unanimously Friday to ratify the deal.

All transactions are frozen as of Friday until a date to be determined by both MLB and the union. Roster expansion was not included in the agreement, but the issue will be discussed by the two sides between now and the start of the season.

As part of the agreement, MLB has the right to move the 2020 Draft past its currently scheduled date of June 10, but no later than July 20. The Draft can also be reduced to a minimum of five rounds, though MLB can choose to have anywhere from five to 40 rounds.

MLB will have the right to run a combine for amateur players in both 2020 and 2021 if the league determines it makes sense to do so.

Drafted players will receive no more than $100,000 of their signing bonuses upfront, receiving 50 percent of the remainder by July 1, 2021, and the other 50 percent by July 1, 2022. Undrafted players will be able to receive no more than $20,000 as a signing bonus.

Signing bonus values will remain at their 2019 level in both 2020 and 2021, according to terms of the new deal. MLB can also reduce the 2021 Draft to as few as 20 rounds.

As a result of the deal, the start of the international signing period may also be delayed from July 2, 2020, to as late as Jan. 15, 2021, while next year’s international signing period can also be pushed back. Teams will also not be allowed to trade Draft picks or international bonus slots in 2020 or 2021.

Other key points brought up by Polishuk and Dierkes follow.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) published a breakdown of the agreement, including an explanation of how a $170-million advance payment will be distributed to players if the season is canceled entirely.

Another key insight from Passan and McDaniel: “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.”  No further detail is provided regarding the adjustment to the arbitration system, which in a sense is already set up to consider lessened counting statistics.  For example, if Kris Bryant hits 20 home runs in the course of an 81-game 2020 season, will that be viewed as the equivalent of a 40 home run campaign?  Passan and McDaniel’s other arbitration-related revelation – that the upcoming batch of arbitration salaries will be excluded as future precedents – implies that players may not have the luxury of getting a 40 home run type raise for a 20 home run half-season.

The ESPN duo also notes that 2020 luxury tax payrolls will be assessed “base[d] it on what full-season salaries were supposed to be, not prorated salary payment.”  This is notable in that a team like the Yankees, who are way above the luxury tax threshold, will still be taxed even though they will actually pay out much less than $208MM in salaries.  The actual tax paid will be prorated, according to Passan and McDaniel.  The writers also explain, “And if there is no season, there will be no taxes owed, implying every team would reset to the lowest competitive balance tax threshold.”  Before the coronavirus struck, teams such as the Red Sox and Cubs basically devoted their offseasons to getting under the threshold and resetting their tax rate for the future.

Speaking of veteran players on minor league contracts, several of those deals contained player opt-out dates set five days prior to the Opening Day that never occurred.  MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) has heard speculation that the league could simply push those deadlines to five days prior to the season’s new start.  With no official policy yet in place, we’ve seen different approaches from various teams to this issue, ranging from some clubs agreeing to delay opt-out decision dates independently, to some teams officially selecting a non-roster player’s contract in order to confirm their place on the Major League roster.

The MLB/MLBPA agreement also has a provision for players who aren’t on a 40-man roster but are on guaranteed contracts, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets.  Such players as the Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas “will receive more advance pay than a minor-leaguer,” though it isn’t clear if they would receive the full $5K daily salary through April and May.  Tomas was set to make $17MM in 2020, which was the last season of his six-year, $68.5MM deal signed back in December 2014.  Arizona outrighted Tomas off its 40-man roster in each of the last two seasons, and he has appeared in only four Major League games for the D’Backs in that time.

For a high-level explainer of this week’s agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, check out Jeff Todd’s video here.

Noteworthiness

—  Craig Edwards (FanGraphs) wonders if MLB will turn to expansion after losing revenues due to COVID-19? Edwards notes that “We might see a franchise fee anywhere from $750 million to $1.5 billion should new teams be formed. The Kansas City Royals just sold for $1 billion, while the Marlins sold for $1.2 billion in 2017. Even adding just two franchises totaling $1.5 billion in franchise fees would net every owner $50 million, and those payments could begin several years before the new teams actually debut. Of course, new stadiums would obviously (and appropriately) be major hurdles to new teams, as is seeing some stabilization of the sport and the economy at large. A new franchise, and the construction of a new ballpark, is almost certainly not where most municipalities will elect to devote their logistical and financial resources right now. But the easiest way to make up for some of the losses in 2020 might be to add a couple of teams in the next few years.”