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The New What Next: Rays vs Pirates — a series preview

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Adeiny Hechavarria is expected to join the Rays in Pittsburgh this week. (Photo Credit: CBS Sports)

Following a disappointing series loss against the Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays departed from the Sunshine State and hit the road for an eight-game, nine-day road trip. On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of three games against the sub .500 Pittsburg Pirates at PNC Park, in Pittsburgh.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay dropped two straight to a struggling Baltimore team to lose their first series since the start of June. They let a late 5-4 lead slip away on Sunday, as the bullpen once again collapsed. Alex Colome (1-3) ultimately took the loss after he allowed three uncharacteristic runs on two hits and two walks, while striking out just one in one inning of work. Still, Tampa Bay starts the series three-games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, who are in a virtual tie for first place in the AL East.

The Rays acquired Adeiny Hechevarria from the Marlins on Monday, giving them an elite glove at shortstop. He won’t do much at the plate, however, Hechevarria will shore up the defense up the middle. He is expected to join the team on the road in Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, the Pirates missed a chance to sweep St. Louis and fell five games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central. In the series finale, Pittsburgh led 4-2 they gave up two runs in the sixth and four in the seventh. Juan Nicasio (1-4) took the loss after he allowed four of those runs (three earned) on one hit and two walks in one-third of an inning. The Pirates are limited by the PED suspension of Starling Marte, and injuries to Antonio Bastardo and Francisco Cervelli — the latter of which is dealing with the lingering symptoms of a concussion. On Thursday, the team put Cervelli back on the DL, where he’ll likely remain for the duration of this series.

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six interleague road games overall, and 4-0 in their last four interleague road games against a team with a losing record. On the flip side, the Pirates are 0-4 in their last four interleague games against a right-handed starter — of which they’ll face two over the life of the series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (6-5, 4.05 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Blake Snell (with AAA 5-0, 2.66 ERA, 3.09 FIP), and Chris Archer (6-4, 3.88 ERA, 2.89 FIP) over the next three days. Clint Hurdle will counter with Trevor Williams (2-2, 5.01 ERA, 4.11 FIP), Ivan Nova (7-5, 3.06 ERA, 3.79 FIP), and Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.33 ERA, 3.79 FIP).

(Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb delivered his third consecutive quality start (the seventh in his last 10 games) in a 6-5 win over the Reds, on Tuesday. The right-hander threw seven innings of two run ball, notching six strikeouts. It was his second straight outing of more than 110 pitches. For what it’s worth, Cobb has gotten more comfortable with his changeup of late, and it’s regained some of its pre-surgery depth; the thing that made it such a dangerous weapon in the first place. He has shaved two-to-three inches of vertical movement off the pitch since the start of the season. For Cobb, the velocity never has been what’s made the pitch deadly, rather it is the movement. Bereft of the late break, his split-change became a meatball over the plate that begged to be crushed.

Williams struck out a career-high seven batters, while allowing three runs over six innings against the Brewers. Since moving from the bullpen, he has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his nine starts. He, however, has a 5.34 ERA at home this season, and a 5.09 through 58-1/3 innings overall. Why the inflated peripherals? Williams has allowed hitters to elevate, and has stranded just 63.2% of baserunners this season. That bodes well for a Rays team that’s shown the ability to string together some hits and knock the ball out of the park.

Snell rejoins the rotation after making adjustments at Triple-A Durham, where he posted a pristine 5-0 record. Something clicked with the southpaw, and he struck out 61 over 44 innings to pair with a 2.66 ERA/3.10 FIP in Durham — this, after fanning 34 in 42 innings with a 6.00 ERA with the Rays. He pitched into the seventh inning in all but two of those starts.

Nova allowed four runs on 11 hits over seven innings against the Brewers on Thursday. He has thrown at least six innings in each of his 15 starts this season. The 30 year-old right-hander owns a 2.53 ERA in seven home outings this year, partially because of his impeccable control this season. He’s walked a paltry 11 batters over 103-2/3 innings of work this season, but due to all that strike throwing, he has been known to allow the long-ball. Nova is 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 16 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (5-11, HR, 2 RBI), Corey Dickerson (1-4, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (11-38, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3)

Archer received plenty of run support in a 15-5 win over the Orioles, which is good because he wasn’t particularly great. Archer gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits over six innings on Friday. He also fanned a season-low four batters. The Rays hope their ace can bounce back in the series finale on Thursday.

Taillon hurled six strong innings and struck out seven on Friday, holding the Cardinals to two runs on four hits. This season Taillon has relied upon a mid-90s fastball (both two and four seam), and an upper 80s changeup. The 25 year-old right-hander isn’t a strikeout machine, rather he gets by by coaxing ground balls and slowing down the pace of the game if/when runners get aboard. That approach has its virtues and disadvantages, as Taillon has posted three starts without an earned run, and three starts with at least four. Key Matchup: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Boxberger will make another rehab appearance for the Stone Crabs Tuesday night. Boxberger had oblique tightness after his last appearance for the Durham Bulls and was not activated over the weekend as expected. If all goes well, he could be activated during this series.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Orioles — a series preview

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On Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays will again welcome the Baltimore Orioles into the Trop for a three-game series. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

On Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays will again welcome the Baltimore Orioles into Tropicana Field for a three-game series.

(Stats: ESPN)

When considering the 2017 PECOTA projections, the Rays are living up to their expectations. They’ll head into the series just 2-1/2 games out of first place, seated comfortably in second place (with the Yankees and Red Sox virtually tied for first) in one of the best divisions in baseball. That doesn’t mean they are playing excellent baseball, rather, they’re out-hitting their mistakes — something they will have to tighten up if they hope to remain relevant.

It’s a big series for both teams as we quickly approach the midway point of the season. The Rays have an opportunity to further separate themselves from the two teams beneath them in the standings. Though with the recent slump by the Yankees, the AL East appears to be up for grabs, and as bad as the Orioles have played, they are still only five games out of first place.

Still, the Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning record — 6-20 in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Rays are 4-1 in their last five games against a team with a losing record, 7-2 in their last nine home games.

A simple fact, Baltimore is terrible on the road, while Tampa Bay has been great at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (5-4, 3.75 ERA, 2.88 FIP), Jacob Faria (3-0, 1.37 ERA, 1.51 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.78 ERA, 5.34 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez (2-2, 6.94 ERA, 7.08 FIP), Dylan Bundy (7-6, 3.72 ERA, 4.64 FIP), and Chris Tillman (1-5, 8.39 ERA, 6.52 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer picked up his first win since May 26 in a 3-2 victory over Detroit. He fanned eight over six innings, while allowing two earned runs. The right-hander also extended his franchise-record streak of 100-pitch games to 24. After struggling through his last outing (four runs across six innings), Archer notched his fourth quality start in six tries. He has been inconsistent as of late, although the right-hander boasts a solid 3.75 ERA/2.88 FIP to go with an impressive 11.4 K/9 through 15 starts. Baltimore tagged Archer for five runs 6-2/3 innings of work earlier this season.

Jimenez worked around four hits and four walks in an impressive seven-inning return to the mound as a started on Sunday; his first start since May 22. His four previous outings came in relief. Showalter had Jimenez on a short leash in his last start against the Rays, who tagged him for three runs on three hits (including a homer) and five walks over just 3-1/3 innings on April 24. Still, the right-hander is 5-2 with a 3.47 ERA against Tampa Bay over nine career starts. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-1, BB), Logan Morrison (5-9, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Colby Rasmus (13-43, 6 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB)

Faria continued his impressive rookie campaign, holding Detroit to just one run over seven innings while fanning nine. He walked only one. Faria became only the fifth pitcher since 1913 to pick up a win while hurling at least six innings and allowing no more than a run in each of his first three career games.

Bundy received a loss on Monday after surrendering six earned runs on six hits (including a homer) 4-1/3 innings against Cleveland. It appears that Bundy’s recent struggles are the result of a heavy workload, so he has been pushed back in the order so he can get some extra days of rest. Bundy, Baltimore’s former top prospect, certainly could use that rest, as he has a 7.63 ERA in his past three starts. To his credit, Bundy threw 6-1/3 quality innings against Tampa Bay on April 26, allowing just two runs on four hits (including two homers). Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-8, 2B)

Odorizzi equaled a season high in his seven inning start against Cincinnati his last time out. He, however, continued his stretch of games, where he allowed at least a homer to 10 games straight — one shy of a franchise record. The right-hander cruised through the first four innings, yet a solo home run by Scott Schebler in the fifth inning and a two-run shot from Scooter Gennett in the sixth left the Rays down by three when he departed after the seventh. Still, the right-hander delivered his second quality start in the last three outings and holds a respectable 3.78 ERA (but a bloated 5.34 FIP) for the season.

Tillman hasn’t earned a win since May 7, his first start of the season. The right-hander was pulled after he allowed five earned runs over four innings against Cleveland on Tuesday. After missing the first month of the season due to a shoulder issue, and then tossing five pristine innings in his 2017 debut, Tillman’s been nothing short of a dumpster fire. His ERA now stands at 8.39, and the only thing that’s kept him in the rotation is a lack of alternatives within the organization. The Rays have handed him a career 8-11 record and a 4.11 ERA in 25 starts. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, RBI, BB), Peter Bourjos (1-2), Evan Longoria (19-63, 4 2B, 3B, 8 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-11, 2B, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (6-20, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB)

Noteworthiness

— Reinforcements are expected this weekend! Brad Boxberger and Wilson Ramos are both expected to make their 2017 debuts with the Rays this weekend, potentially as early as Friday. Boxberger will, ideally, help stabilize a beleaguered bullpen, while Ramos — who helped Washington’s pitchers earn a 3.45 ERA with him behind the plate, while also cultivating a 33.3% caught stealing rate — will be a nice addition to the roster, both offensively and defensively.

We will have a roster update when either of the two (or both) are activated from the DL.

— The Rays signed right-handed reliever Mike Broadway, and assigned him to Double-A Montgomery.

— INF Michael Martinez, who was designated for assignment this week, cleared waivers and elected for free agency. Good riddance.

The New What Next: Rays vs Reds — a series preview, Trevor Plouffe added to the roster

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The Rays return home Monday after splitting a pair of road series’ against the Blue Jays and Tigers. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their home run mashing ways when they welcome the Cincinnati Reds into the Trop for a three-game interleague series, starting Monday.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay continues to stay above the .500 mark after going 3-3 on a six-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Tigers. The Rays, who have now won two in a row, flexed their muscles against Detroit with five home runs (including a Steven Souza Jr. grand Slam) in the 9-1 win Sunday.

Here’s three of the five:

Tampa Bay and Cincinnati have only met 12 times total, with the Reds holding a 9-3 record in those games. The Rays, however, took two of three in 2014, the last time they faced Cincinnati. The Reds will need their history of success to be kind based on recent results. They are currently mired in a nine-game losing streak, sitting dead last in the NL Central after an 8-7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.

All told, the Rays are 6-4 over their last 10, and looking to separate themselves from the rest of the AL East, while the Reds are 1-9 over the same stretch and, well…looking for a win.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.77 ERA, 5.15 FIP), Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.17 ERA, 4.29 FIP), and Erasmo Ramirez (2-2, 6.48 ERA, 4.63 FIP). Bryan Price will counter with Scott Feldman (5-5, 4.29 ERA, 4.28 FIP), Amir Garrett (3-5, 6.91 ERA, 6.97 FIP), and Tim Adleman (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 5.23 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Key Matchups

Odorizzi did not make it out of the fifth inning in his last start when he allowed three runs over 4-1/3 innings of a no decision against Toronto. Odorizzi struggled with his control throughout, throwing 99 pitches (55 strikes) in his outing. Be that as it may, Odorizzi otherwise has been solid at home, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.11 ERA at the Trop this season, while collecting five quality starts in a row at home.

Feldman last pitched in a 6-2 loss in San Diego on Tuesday, allowing four runs and eight hits in five innings. That start was one of six in which he was tagged for four runs or more. Having spent 12 of his 13 seasons in the American League, Feldman has plenty of experience against the Rays, going 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 17 appearances (seven starts). This season he has relied primarily on a ground ball inducing 89 mph cutter, a 90 mph sinker, and a 76 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3),  Evan Longoria (5-17, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, BB), Derek Norris (6-14, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Colby Rasmus (2-8), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3)

Cobb earned a no-decision in his start Thursday against Detroit, but hurled an effective 6-2/3 innings and allowed two earned runs. The right-hander fanned just three batters, and walked a pair while giving up eight hits in that start, although he was able to lean on his split-change — throwing it 17 times (12 for strikes, two whiffs), which is a lot compared to the number he threw earlier in the season. The Tigers only put two of them in play, and the pitch did appear to regain some of its pre-surgery depth. In his only career start against the Reds, he threw seven scoreless frames.

Garrett notched his first quality start in over a month on Wednesday, throwing six innings of two-run ball against San Diego. To his credit, he kept the ball down in the zone, something he struggled to do over his last several starts. Beware of the long-ball! In that contest, Hunter Renfroe hit a monstrous two-run homer in the sixth inning. With a 2.57 HR/9 over the last 14 days, the Rays will try to punish Garrett for any mistakes left up in the zone. This season Garrett has relied primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, and an 80 mph 12-6 slider. He’s also mixed in an 81 mph changeup with slight cut and a lot of backspin. He has never faced the Rays.

Ramirez has struggled over his past four starts, posting two losses and an unsightly 10.05 ERA. On Friday, the Tigers pounded him to the tune of 10 runs (eight earned) in 4-2/3 innings. As I wrote on Saturday, it may be time to move Erasmo back to the ‘pen where he’s been more successful; this outing likely will be a bellwether for the right-hander.

Adleman has been the Reds’ most consistent starter, as he’s gone at least five innings and given up three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. However, the Reds haven’t capitalized, going 2-3 in those games. Because he’s a fly ball pitcher, Adleman doesn’t generate nearly enough ground balls, leading to one of the worst HR/9 ratios in the league. It will be interesting to see if the 29 year-old right-hander leans on his plus curveball Wednesday afternoon in an attempt to keep the ball in the park. The breaking pitch ranks fifth in whiffs per swing, and it has been above average at inducing grounders and making it a tough pitch to do anything with. He’s also cultivated a .000 ISO and a .133 BAA with the curveball, although he’s thrown it just 10% of the time this season — down from 18% a season ago. He has never faced the Rays.

Noteworthiness

— Trevor Plouffe, acquired from Oakland, has officially joined the active roster. To make room for Plouffe, the Rays have designated Michael Martinez (no options remaining) for assignment.

The New What Next: Rays vs Le Tigre — a series preview

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Logan Morrison and the Rays are set to start a four-game series against the Tigers in Detroit on Thursday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On the heels of a series split against the Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays look to avenge their 7-6 loss on Wednesday, when they start a four-game series against the sub .500 Tigers, in Detroit. Le Tigre has dropped two straight, and four of their last five, while the Rays have won six of their last 10.

(Stats: ESPN)

The two faced one another earlier this season, from April 19-21, in a series that was punctuated by defensive lapses in the outfield by Detroit. The Rays outscored the Tigers 21-9 in the three-game sweep at the Trop. In spite of the peripherals, their Tigers — especially Miguel Cabrera — are experiencing a power outage of sorts. Cabrera’s last homer came on May 20, and he’s gone 22 full games (95 plate appearances) without a long ball. Be that as it may, he’s hit .308 (24-78) over that span.

The Rays will look to do two things over the next four days: keep Detroit in the ball-park, and score first. The Tigers are 29-18 when they hit a homer, and 1-16 when they don’t. Furthermore, Le Tigre is 0-25 when they trail after the sixth inning, 1-25 when they trail after the seventh, and 0-28 when they trail after the eighth.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA, 4.34 FIP), Erasmo Ramirez (3-1, 4.20 ERA, 3.73 FIP), Chris Archer (4-4, 3.80 ERA, 2.86 FIP), and Jacob Faria (2-0, 1.42 ERA, 1.78 FIP) this weekend. Brad Ausmus will counter with Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.68 ERA, 4.58 FIP), Daniel Norris (3-4, 4.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP), Michael Fulmer (6-4, 3.40 ERA, 3.03 FIP), and Buck Farmer (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 2.80 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb relied heavily on a strong changeup to great effect in his last start, limiting the Athletics to one run and four hits over six innings. He got the win and improved to 5-5. Cobb’s overall 4.29 ERA would look much better if not for a miserable 5 IP/9 R/14 H start against the Mariners on June 3. He is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA against the Tigers.

Verlander, gave up three runs over five innings in his last turn. It was the right-handers first start since leaving his June 4 outing with groin tightness. Verlander has had an up and down season, due in part to his seeming inability to coax swings and misses. From last season to this, opponents’ chase rates have dropped from 16.6% to 13.7%, while their SwStr% (within the zone) have declined from 17.7% to 14 %. Be that as it may, Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Evan Longoria (8-30, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Michael Martinez (2-8, BB), Derek Norris (3-7, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6)

Ramirez allowed 10 hits and a walk over 5-1/3 innings, yet held Oakland to three runs in his last start. He beat the Tigers in the final game of the above mentioned three-game sweep, allowing just two hits and one run.

Norris hasn’t completed the fifth inning in three of his 12 starts, including his last start against Tampa Bay on April 20. He has allowed an equal number hits to the number of strikeouts he’s collected over his previous four starts, with a 3.63 ERA over that span. It appears that he has started to fix things, as his self inflicted wounds (and/or the wounds inflicted by others) don’t appear to be effecting him as much. Take a recent start against the BoSox for example, when he worked around a third inning misplay in centerfield which allowed the tying and go-ahead runs to move into scoring position with one out. He limited the damage and work out of the jam. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2), Evan Longoria (4-7, 2B, RBI, BB), Michael Martinez (1-1, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-8, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2)

Archer allowed four earned runs over six innings of a no-decision in his last start against Oakland. He fanned eight. The irony? His last start against the Tigers had a similar outcome: 5 IP/4 R/9 K. The luck dragons have nipped at Archer’s heels over his last few starts — a .370 BABIP speaks to that — so it’s reasonable to assume he’s due a bounce back.

Fulmer has been shelved since June 8 after an MRI revealed inflammation in the bursa of his right shoulder. It’s no coincidence that he allowed five runs in back-to-back starts for the first time in his career. Fulmer took the loss in his last start against the Rays after he allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks over six innings. Pitching Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, HR, 2 RBI), Derek Norris (2-3, RBI)

Faria was impressive yet again in his last start. His stuff, especially his changeup, was electric, and he fooled Toronto’s hitters left and right. He was poised and efficient, allowing just three hits on 70 pitches over five innings — calmly taking a shutout into the seventh against the power-laden Blue Jays.

Farmer had a 13-inning scoreless streak snapped in his last start, when he allowed six runs in 2-1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks. This season, the 26 year-old right-hander has relied upon a whiffy 92 MPH four-seam fastball and 85 MPH changeup, while also mixing in a 91 MPH sinker with arm-side run, a 79 MPH 12-6 slider, and a swing and miss 81 MPH cutter. Farmer faced the Rays once in relief in 2015, allowing a home run in one-third of an inning.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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The Rays start the day with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After finishing their most recent homestand with a 5-2 record, the scrappy Tampa Bay Rays will take the hit show to Toronto, where they’ll play a brief two-game series against the Blue Jays. The Rays start the series with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox, and 1-1/2 games ahead of the Blue Jays.

(Stats: ESPN)

When looking at BaseRuns, which is primarily based on a team’s run differential, the Rays are underperforming — largely due to a pitching staff that hasn’t been able to consistently hold leads. FanGraphs finds that they should be 37-29 on the season. Still, they posted a +.500 record in the month of May, and they’re 5-5 so far in June, which has allowed the Rays to move up in the AL East.

The Blue Jays are now the only team in the AL East bereft of a winning record. Toronto is 17-14 at home, however, they are 11-18 against the AL East, and 5-5 against Tampa Bay. To their credit, the Blue Jays are coming off a series win against the Mariners — you know, the team that the Rays were swept by a week-and-a-half back — and they are 10-6 since the return of Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson from the DL. Be that as it may, Tampa Bay has outperformed Toronto overall, including the last 14 days.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will call upon a pair of Jakes — Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA, 2.48 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.59 ERA, 5.03 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04 ERA, 3.44 FIP), and Francisco Liriano (3-2, 5.87 ERA, 4.91 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Faria is in line to make his second big league start after an impressive debut against the ChiSox, in which he allowed one run on three hits over 6-1/3 innings. He struck out five. At Triple-A Durham this season, the right-hander went 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA/3.22 FIP, and 84 strikeouts.

Estrada has hit a road block after a strong start to the season. He’s allowed 11 earned runs on 16 hits over his last 9-1/3 innings of work, while striking out a combined 12 batters. His command (or lack thereof) has been a big reason why, as he’s left too many elevated changeups in the zone. Estrada hasn’t had much success against the Rays, at least as it relates to his 1-6 record, however, his sub four ERA (3.75) overall tells a different story. Then again, he’s 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA against Tampa Bay this season after allowing 13 runs on 10 hits over 11 innings of work. All this is to say, who knows which Estrada will take the mound Tuesday night? Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-14, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (5-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-2), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi battled in the sixth inning of a win over against Chicago, giving up a three-run homer, but was sharp otherwise, striking out a season-high-tying eight. He’s also been sharp over his previous four starts, collecting 22 strikeouts and allowing just 10 earned runs on 24 hits. However, there is something to be wary of, Odorizzi has given up at least one home run in all but one start this season — April 15 vs. Boston, the game he left after just one inning of work.

Liriano struggled before going on the 10-day DL in May with left shoulder inflammation, and hasn’t pitched deeply into games since his return. The left-hander has gone five innings in each of his two starts since returning, but earned a win on June 2 with a two-run effort against the Yankees. He is 1-0 against Tampa Bay this season, yet with a 9.00 ERA over three starts (totaling 9 innings pitched). Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, 2 BB), Peter Bourjos (9-35, 3 2B, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (2-7, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-25, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Daniel Robertson (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI, 6 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)