X-Rays Spex

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The New What Next: Rays vs Twins part two — a series preview

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How do you spell sweep? D-E-T-R-O-I-T T-I-G-E-R-S. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After rattling off five consecutive wins, including a three-game seep of the Tigers, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to open a four game series against the Minnesota Twins, in Minneapolis. The Twins won the rubber game of their three game series with the Royals on Wednesday. The Rays, who enter the series four-games over .500 for the first time this season, swept the three-game series between the teams at home earlier this season (April 20-22).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay looks to build on its 48-44 record heading into the All Star Break. They still trail the Red Sox by 16 games in the AL East entering Thursday night, however, the Rays made up a game in a half in the Wildcard rankings, sitting 9.5 games out of the final spot with 70 left to play.

Minnesota bounced back from a loss in the middle game of the set with Kansas City, improving to 41-49 on the season with their sixth win in seven games. Although the Twins trail Cleveland by 8.5 in the AL Central, and the Rays by six games in the AL Wildcard rankings.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Minnesota has put 75 runs on the board over the last 14 days, as compared to Tampa Bay which has scored 23 fewer. Yet the Rays pitching staff has performed to a combined 2.47 ERA/3.19 FIP (1.66 ERA/2.21 FIP by starters, 3.00 ERA/3.84 FIP by relievers) over the same stretch. Compare that to the Twins, which have performed to a combined 4.95 ERA/4.69 FIP (4.92 ERA/5.33 FIP by starters, 5.00 ERA/3.83 FIP by relievers). Good pitching beats good hitting, advantage Tampa Bay.

If the Rays can win the series, they’ll enter the All-Star Break with a 51-45 record in the very least, six games over .500.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will start Blake Snell (12-4, 2.09 ERA), Nathan Eovaldi (3-3, 3.35 ERA) and Chris Archer (3-4, 4.41 ERA), then rely on the bullpen (23-22, 3.46 ERA) in the series finale. Paul Molitor will counter with Kyle Gibson (3-6, 3.59 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (4-6, 4.28 ERA), Jose Berrios (9-7, 3.41 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the game on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell allowed six hits and three walks while striking out nine across 7-1/3 scoreless innings against the Mets on Sunday. Snell threw 112 pitches (70 strikes, 63% strike rate), generated an impressive 16 swinging strikes (23% SwStr rate) and stayed out of trouble by coaxing 10 groundouts including two double plays. While the Mets typically struggle against left-handers, Snell has been dominant in his last three starts, fanning 29 batters across 21-2/3 innings. Those three turns on the mound have added to his impressive 2018 campaign, as Snell ranks among the AL leaders in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. (Cough, yet he was still snubbed for the All Star Game)

Kyle Gibson fired seven strong innings to earn the win over Baltimore on Saturday, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks while striking out nine. Gibson has been solid for most of the season and he continued that on Saturday, with most of the damage coming on a first-inning home run hit by Chris Davis. Even so, Gibson is 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA over his last three starts (19 innings), with seven walks but 19 strikeouts. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.81 ERA in eight career starts against Tampa Bay, including a 6-1/3 inning four run, five hit loss on April 21. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-3, HR, RBI), CJ Cron (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-15, 2B, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (5-8, 3 2B, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 3B)

Nathan Eovaldi blanked the Mets across seven innings, allowing just one hit while striking out nine. The right-hander has had his best stuff over his last three starts, allowing just two runs across 19 innings while striking out 23. Even considering the hefty number of punch outs he collected, Eovaldi was extremely efficient Sunday, needing just 79 pitches (59 strikes, 75% strike rate) to breeze through seven innings, but manager Cash decided to pull the starter due to a seven-run lead.

Jake Odorizzi allowed five hits and a walk while striking out five over six innings against the Orioles on Sunday. He now has thrown two scoreless outings in his last three starts. And while both of those starts have come against weak lineups — the White Sox and Orioles — the former Ray is making up for a rough stretch from late May and June, during which he allowed 22 earned runs across 20-1/3 innings. He has gone at least five innings without surrendering more than two earned runs in 10 of his 19 starts this season. Odo has never faced his former team, although a handful of batters have faced him over the last few years. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, HR, RBI), Matt Duffy (1-2, 2B), Carlos Gomez (2-7, BB)

Chris Archer did not fare well in his return outing after spending on the DL with an abdominal strain, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over 3-1/3 innings Monday night. He struck out three. Archer threw 15 of 18 first pitch strikes and induced 11 whiffs, although he had a hard time putting batters away efficiently. He struggled in the third inning, when he allowed three runs on three hits and a walk, running up his pitch count before his removal with one out in the fourth. Archer appeared to be turning a corner leading up to his DL stint, firing off five quality starts over a stretch of seven appearances that was bookended by an injury marred, five inning outing against Seattle on the fifth of June. Over his last four previous starts against the Angels, Red Sox, Athletics and the Mariners, Archer allowed a total of three runs, while sporting a 2.18 K/BB.

Jose Berrios held the Royals to just one run on six hits over seven innings on Monday night. He struck out eight. Berrios has now thrown quality starts in six of his last seven outings. The right-hander leaned heavily on his curveball Monday, throwing it 41 times, inducing five swinging strikes and four outs in play with it. Overall, Kansas City’s batters whiffed 16 times (22% SwStr rate) on 111 (74 strikes, 67% strike rate) pitches as Berrios showed why he’s the ace in Minnesota. Aside from his 82 mph curveball, this season Berrios has relied on his 94 mph four-seam fastball and an 84 mph changeup. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B)

I will update this piece when the pitching probables for the series finale are announced.

The New What Next: Rays vs Tigers part two — a series preview

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Much to Jon Heyman’s chagrin, the Rays walloped the New York Mets on Sunday, 9-0. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home for a brief, three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Monday, before they hit the road once again ahead of the All-Star Break. Tampa Bay most recently took two of three from the Mets, while Detroit split a four-game set with the Rangers.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

After starting the series against the Mets on a rather frigid note, the Rays’ offense showed signs of life in the series finale — hammering New York for nine runs on nine hits (including three home runs). Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Kittredge held the Mets to just two hits and no runs, allowing the Rays to earn their league leading eighth shutout in the last 38 games.

Moving runners was a monumental task for Tampa Bay in the first two games, as the Rays went 2-for-25 with runners in scoring position. However, they inevitably showed they could both hit home runs and play small ball — going 5-for-13 (.385 batting average) wRISP the rest of the way.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Rays should be able to continue that bourgeoning success against a Tigers’ pitching staff that has fared poorly on the road — performing to an 4.71 ERA/4.56 FIP/.258 opponents BA/.337 opponents OBP/.438 opponents SLG/.334 opponents wOBA over 372-1/3 innings away from Comerica Park. Furthermore, the Rays have won 11 of their last 15 (eight vs. contending teams) and allowed just 31 runs — 17 fewer than any other team.

In the end, there is a score to be settled with the Tigers, as Tampa Bay dropped two of three in Detroit, between April 30 and May 2, after picking up a win in the lead game. Hopefully all facets of the Rays will be up for the task.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on a rehabilitated Chris Archer (3-4, 4.24 ERA), and likely Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.71 ERA) and Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 3.75 ERA) over the next three days. I will update this piece when that situation becomes clear. Ron Gardenhire will counter with Francisco Liriano (3-5, 4.03 ERA), Matthew Boyd (4-7, 4.58 ERA) and Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 3.51 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Chris Archer will return from the disabled list on Monday, although he will likely be limited to about 75 pitches. The 29-year-old has been on the DL since June 5 with an abdominal strain, posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 76-1/3 innings prior to the injury. Archer appeared to be turning a corner though, firing off five quality starts over a stretch of seven appearances that was bookended by an injury marred, five inning outing against Seattle on the fifth of June. Over his last four starts against the Angels, Red Sox, Athletics and the Mariners, Archer allowed a total of three runs, while sporting a 2.18 K/BB. The secret to his success? He kept the ball inside the park.

Francisco Liriano took a loss Wednesday even though he allowed three runs on five hits, but five walks, across six innings. He struck out five. The five walks marked a new season high, and the southpaw is lucky that he only allowed three runs to cross the plate with so much traffic on the base paths. Liriano has posted back-to-back quality starts, yet he has taken a loss each time thanks to a lackluster offense that scored just two runs or fewer in each of Liriano’s last two outings. Despite that, he is 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 15 starts against the Rays, and 1-2 with a 9.73 ERA in seven games (five starts) at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (3-6), Carlos Gomez (11-24, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Daniel Robertson (2-6, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (1-3), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

Matt Andriese fired two scoreless innings on Wednesday, allowing a hit and two walks. He recorded three strikeouts and threw 36 pitches overall. Andriese has become one of the most flexible options out of the Rays ‘pen, given his extensive starting and relief experience. After a rocky June (6.39 ERA over 12-2/3 innings), Andriese has posted four scoreless innings across a pair of appearances.

Matthew Boyd allowed seven runs (six earned) on seven hits over four innings in his last start against the Rangers. He struck out three. Boyd didn’t allow a run in the first inning, yet allowed multiple runs thereafter before receiving the early hook in the fourth. The key blows were a pair of two-run homers by Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman. Boyd has been hit or miss since limiting the Rays to one run on May 1, allowing five or more earned runs three times over his past four starts — pushing his ERA up from 3.23 before his rough stretch to 4.58. He is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Johnny Field (1-2), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (1-1), Wilson Ramos (1-2, BB), Mallex Smith (1-3)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on four hits and one walk over three innings of a no-decision against Miami on Tuesday. He struck out three. Yarbrough ran into a bit of trouble in the second inning, loading the bases on an IBB before the opposing pitcher, Trevor Richards, laced a two-run single to center. Even though he limited the damage and breezed through the third inning with ease, Yarbrough didn’t come back out for the fourth despite tossing 6-1/3 innings and 90 pitches in his previous outing. He has allowed four runs total in his last 15-1/3 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann allowed one run on four hits over eight innings in a win against Texas on Friday. He fanned a season-high 11 batters. After serving up a leadoff homer to Shin-Soo Choo, Zimmermann was all but untouchable the rest of the way, throwing 67 of 96 pitches for strikes including 15 swinging strikes (70% strike rate, 22% whiff rate). Zimmermann has been outstanding since returning from the DL in mid-June, posting a 1.80 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and a 24 K/BB over four starts (25 innings). He two-hit the Rays in a seven inning scoreless outing on April 30, and is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-3), Kevin Kiermaier (3-7, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Another unfortunate break for the Rays, RHP Chaz Roe has been placed on the 10-Day DL with a torn meniscus in his left knee, requiring arthroscopic surgery. He is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks.

(Screen Grab Credit: FoxSportsSun)

According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the injury means further changes to the already amorphous bullpen roles, with rookie Diego Castillo likely replacing Roe in facing the toughest right-handed hitters in late-inning situations, and others, including Jaime Schultz, who was called up Sunday, taking on more challenging work.

We’re going to have a bunch of guys probably moving now, manager Kevin Cash said.

Roe had a 3.60 ERA in 41 appearances overall and hadn’t allowed an earned run in 17 of his previous 18 games before Friday.

It’s definitely disappointing, Roe said. I’d been feeling great on the mound and to end it like this right now kind of sucks. But I thought this was the best time to get it done, pitching well right now and hopefully come back even better.

To fill Roe’s spot on the 25-man roster, the team has recalled RHP Jaime Schultz from Triple-A Durham.

— 1B/DH CJ Cron is starting to get toasty, slashing .438 BA/.500 OBP/.813 SLG/1.313 OPS/.375 wOBA in the month of July, with seven hits (four for extra bases) and four runs batted in. He’s struck out just twice in 18 July plate appearances.

The New What Next: Rays vs Mets — an interleague series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t fared well since his return from the DL, slashing .163 BA/.250 OBP/.233 SLG/.483 OPS with 13 punch outs (28.9% K%). (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The scuffling New York Mets play host to the Tampa Bay Rays, as the pair open a three-game interleague series Friday night at Citi Field. The series marks the team’s first trek to Queens since the Rays called Citi Field home for three-games last season, in the wake of Hurricane Irma.

The Rays started their six-game road trip on a rather inauspicious note, dropping two of three games to the Miami Marlins. The Mets split a two-game set with Toronto.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay, again, has the opportunity to jump above the .500 mark with a series win. Furthermore, if playing competitive baseball is their raison d’être, then the Rays — who have gone 7-3 over over a 10-game stretch — need to use this series as a springboard to another one of their patented winning streaks leading up to the All-Star Break. New York has had the had the opposite success over its last 10 games, flailing to a 3-7 record.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-2, 1.98 ERA) to open the first game of the series, Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 3.92 ERA). Mickey Callaway will counter with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46 ERA), Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.84 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek saw his 12-appearance scoreless streak come to an end on Monday, in a relief loss to Miami. Still, the right-hander has a 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17-2/3 innings. Andrew Kittredge looks like the top candidate to cover the bulk of the innings behind Stanek, due to the heavy workloads that many of the Rays’ other long-relief options have assumed lately.

Steven Matz threw 5-1/3 innings on Sunday, allowing one unearned run on three hits and two walks while fanning six. The only run that scored was off an error by Matz. The southpaw lowered his season ERA to 3.46 alongside a respectable 3.62 K/BB. Even so, he has allowed six runs over his last 12 innings of work. This season Matz has relied primarily on his 94 mph sinker, while also mixing in a firm 84 mph changeup with slight armside fade and some natural sink, a 79 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and an 89 mph worm-killer slider. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6, 2 RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI)

Blake Snell allowed one run on four hits and a walk while striking out 10 over 7-1/3 innings on Sunday. Snell’s lone earned run came on a seventh inning solo shot off the bat of Evan Gattis giving Houston a one-run lead, but Tampa Bay struck back for two in the bottom half of the frame, setting Snell up for the win. In 18 starts this season, Snell sits with an outstanding 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 3/1 K/BB over 108-2/3 innings. His last start, in front of AJ Hinch, may have solidified Snell’s first All-Star nomination.

Jacob DeGrom allowed three runs on six hits and a walk over six innings on Sunday. He struck out eight. The right-hander cruised through five scoreless innings before allowing a two-run homer. A misplayed grounder gave deGrom his third, and final, earned run on the night. Despite delivering nine consecutive quality starts, deGrom somehow has a 2-4 record over that stretch. He is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA in one career start against Tampa Bay. This season deGrom has relied primarily on his 96 mph four-seam fastball and a 91 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph changeup, a 96 mph sinker and an 83 mph curveball. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-2, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-10, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2)

Nathan Eovaldi threw six innings of two-run ball on Monday against the Marlins. Eovaldi allowed eight hits and walked one, while punching out five along the way. Eovaldi endured his share of baserunners in this outing, although he allowed just two extra-base hits and induced 11 groundball outs to limit the damage. The righty allowed a run on three hits in the second inning and another on a solo home run in the fifth. Things are looking up for Eovaldo, who’s thrown two consecutive quality starts, posting a 4.67 K/BB while allowing just two earned runs across 12 total innings of work.

Noteworthiness

— Following the series finale with the Marlins, the Rays optioned RHP Ryan Weber back to Triple-A Durham. A countermove will be announced before the series opener with the Mets.

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins — an interleague series preview

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Mallex Smith’s first homer of the season solidified the Rays come-from-behind win against Astros on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays head south to Miami for the first three games of the annual Citrus Series matchup against the Marlins. The return visit at Tropicana Field is set right after the All-Star Break. The Rays are coming off an 8-1 home stand, having beat three playoff contending teams in the Yankees, Nationals, and Astros. The Marlins took two of three from the Mets this past weekend.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Both teams are having drastically different seasons, although they enter this series in a similar spot in their respective divisions. Tampa Bay enters the series 13-games out of first place in the AL East, and 11 out of the second Wildcard spot, while the Marlins are 15-½ games out in the NL East. Despite that, the Rays are entering one of the easiest stretches of play, with the next 16 games against the sub .500 Marlins, Mets, Tigers and Twins.

An easy stretch of play? Yes … albeit a crucial one for Tampa Bay, which has an opportunity to accumulate some tallies on the left side of the ledger. Baseball Prospectus gives the Rays a 5.6% chance of a playoff berth, odds that increase with each win. Granted they’ll need a lot of help along the way, and a postseason berth is far from an inevitability. But, they have an opportunity to play a role in their idealized outcome, and that is predicated on victories. Besides winning is fun, and so is watching the youth movement go to work.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash is projected to lean on Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 4.08 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 3.76 ERA), and the Rays ‘pen (19-19, 3.45 ERA). Don Mattingly will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (2-5, 6.14 ERA), Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.06 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi was incredible in his debut on May 30, dazzling with six no-hit innings. Yet the right-hander got knocked around prior to his last start, allowing eight homers over a four-game stretch. Nevertheless Eovaldi returned to form and earned the win against Washington on Tuesday after he allowed just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings, while recording nine strikeouts. The right-hander lowered his ERA to 4.08 (from 4.91) and has performed to a  0.82 WHIP with a 6/1 K/BB over 35-1/3 innings.

I definitely feel good about the way I’ve been pitching, Eovaldi told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times). I’ve kind of surprised myself with how I’ve been filling up the strike zone with all my pitches. I’m going to try to repeat that and incorporate the curveball more.

Eovaldi  spent parts of three seasons with the Marlins, going 13-27 with a 4.10 ERA in 63 starts.

It’s just another team, he said. Back when I made my first start against them, it had a little more meaning.

Wei Yin Chen was a tough-luck loser Wednesday after he allowed just one run on five hits and a walk over six innings against Arizona. He struck out five. Chen threw 60 of his 88 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) and allowed just one extra-base hit as he stifled the Diamondbacks for much of the evening. The Marlins’ bats couldn’t pick him up though — getting blanked into the bottom of the ninth. The southpaw has thrown a pair of quality starts in his last three outings, however, the results for the bulk of the year have been significantly worse. Over 55-2/3 innings, Chen has a 6.14 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 1.64 K/BB. He is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 21 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-3), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-13, 3B, HR, 2 RBI)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed one just earned run on seven hits and a walk over 6-1/3 innings of hard luck loss to Houston on Thursday. He struck out four. Yarbrough entered the game with two outs in the second inning and worked into and out of trouble for a considerable amount of his appearance. However, the southpaw managed to coax 10 groundballs and allowed only one extra-base hit — a home run to Jake Marisnick — which limited the damage. He also threw 62 of 95 pitches for strikes. It was a nice bounce back performance for Yarbrough, who allowed 15 earned runs over four of his last six outings.

Trevor Richards gave up three runs on six hits and two walks while fanning three batters over 4.0 innings against the Diamondbacks. Arizona got to Richards early, scratching all of their runs across over the first two frames. Even though Richards was BABIP’d, his command was shaky from the start, as 28 of his 75 pitches went for balls (37% ball rate). Overall, Richards was hot and cold in the month June, following up strong quality starts with subpar work. This season he has relied primarily on his 92 mph four-seam fastball and a whiffy 84 mph changeup swith ome natural sink to it, while also mixing in a hard 81 mph 12-6 curveball.

Neither the Rays nor the Marlins have named a starter for the series finale, on Wednesday. I will update things when a hurler is announced.

Noteworthiness

— Is Carlos Gomez finally turning things around? Gomez got two of the team’s eight hits on Sunday, his fourth multihit game in his past 13 games. He’s hitting .310 over that stretch.

— Part of the Rays recent spate of success comes courtesy of the pitching staff, which has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight games, a club record. Their ERA during their nine-game homestand was 1.39.

— Sunday was the 36th one-run game for Tampa Bay this season, out of 83 (43.3% of their games). They, however, improved to 16-20 in one-run games.

The New What Next: Rays vs Astros part two — a series preview

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The Rays look to continue their spate of winning against the Astros, starting Thursday. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros are set to start a four-game series on Thursday night, when they collide at Tropicana Field. The Rays have won five in a row — all at the expense of the Yankees and Nationals — and seven of their last nine. Houston is 4-1 in its last five contests after recently taking two of three from the Jays.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay started an incredibly tough stretch of play back on May 8, playing 51 games in 54 days. Over that span the Rays faced eight teams with a +.500 record, and went 24-27 overall, with four winning streaks of three or more games, and four losing streaks of three or more games. That seesaw certainly isn’t eye popping to say the least. However, they made hay against the Angels and Athletics, and most recently the Yankees and Nationals.

Pitching has been key to the Rays of late. Their five-game winning streak includes three shutouts and a 22-inning scoreless streak, while they have pitched to a combined 2.87 ERA since May 19 (best in the majors) when they launched their “game opener” strategy, with a .207 opponents batting average and a 1.11 WHIP (second best in the majors).

The pitching’s been outstanding, keeping us in every single ball game, manager Kevin Cash said. It’s kind of how we’re built. We’ve got to take advantage of it when we get it. And we’re getting it here of late.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Even thought they don’t have much to show for their success at the plate over the last 14-days, the Rays have performed well offensively since they last faced the Astros — averaging four runs per game, and slashing a combined .269 BA/.354 OBP/.450 SLG/.804 OPS/.349 wOBA/.325 BABIP line over the last week, with 25 runs (63% of all the runs they’ve scored over the last two weeks), a .181 ISO, and a 5.7 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).

True, Tampa Bay closed out its most recent road trip by losing two of three in Houston, yet the team is perfect on its current nine-game home-stand. And in all fairness, the Rays could have won two of three against the Astros, as the loss in the first game of that particular series came by a run.

To be sure, it would be a fool’s errand to seek a four-game sweep of the Astros. The question then should be how will Tampa Bay bounce back from loss? Will the Rays drop three or more consecutive games, as they have throughout the season, or will they recover from a loss to win the very next game? A series split, in the least, will give them a far better chance to again climb over the .500 mark against their next four, sub .500, competitors: the Marlins, Mets, Tigers, and Twins.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-1, 1.99 ERA) — who will likely be followed by Ryan Yarbrough (7-3, 3.96 ERA), Wilmer Font (1-1, 1.64 ERA), Matt Andriese (1-3, 4.02 ERA), and Blake Snell (10-4, 2.31 ERA). AJ Hinch will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. (8-3, 3.82 ERA), Gerrit Cole (9-1, 2.56 ERA), Justin Verlander (9-3, 1.82 ERA), and Charlie Morton (10-1, 2.54 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek is one of the prime reasons for the team’s pitching success, having not allowed a run in 10 consecutive appearances, including five lead-off outings. Stanek has allowed just four hits during this stretch, while striking out 14 and walking five over 13 innings. Ryan Yarbrough threw 3-1/3 shutout innings against the Yankees last Friday, walking three but fanning four.

Lance McCullers Jr. picked up his fifth consecutive quality start, but settled for his second straight no-decision after allowing three runs on four hits over six innings of work in his last turn. McCullers struck out nine. The Tampa product owns a 5-2 record in nine starts away from Minute Maid Park, yet with a 4.83 road ERA. This season he has relied primarily on a hard 87 mph 12-6 curveball and a 95 mph sinker with some armside run, while also mixing in a whiffy 88 mph changeup with obvious armside fade. The right-hander is 0-2 with an alarming 6.00 ERA in losing both of his careers starts at Tropicana Field.

Wilmer Font shut down one of baseball’s most potent offenses on Saturday, stymying a silent Yankees team.

Font threw 5-2/3 solid innings — his longest outing in the Majors — and allowed just three hits, walking just one and striking out four. It was the 28-year-old’s first big league victory (in his 26th appearance and fourth start). He has progressively increased the length of his appearances, from 2-1/3 innings to 3-1/3 to 4-2/3 and now 5-2/3.

It’s exciting, and I’m very happy, said Font, who was acquired by the Rays on May 25 and is playing with his third organization (Dodgers, Athletics) this season. I was trying to attack from the start. The first pitch was very important. After that, work the corners. I felt very, very good today.

Since joining the Rays, he is 1-1 with a 1.63 ERA in eight appearances (four starts). While there is still a lot of work for him to do, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) writes, Font may turn out to be a steal for the Rays off the discard pile given his physical tools, maturity and hunger at age 28 to finally succeed.

Gerrit Cole fanned eight over five one-run innings on Sunday against Kansas City. He allowed two hits and three walks along the way. Cole limited baserunners, with the only run against him coming on a Lucas Duda solo shot in the fourth. The Royals fouled off 27 pitches to help push Cole’s pitch count, resulting in his removal after collecting just 15 outs. Despite the short outing, Cole bounced back from allowing four earned runs in each of his last two starts, including four runs on three hits and five walks against Tampa Bay on June 18. Cole is now 0-0 with a 5.14 ERA against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-4, 2B, RBI), Carlos Gomez (6-14, 3B, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-12, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3, 2 RBI)

Matt Andriese gave up three runs on three hits and two walks while striking out one in the Rays’ bullpen day on Sunday. His ERA jumped from 3.68 to 4.02 after the outing. Andriese followed 16 consecutive appearances in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer, with two straight starts in which he gave up three runs in each — including a 2-2/3 inning, three run start against the Astros on June 18.

Justin Verlander allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks with six punch outs over 6-2/3 innings of a loss against the Blue Jays on Monday. Home runs have been an issue for Verlander lately, as he has allowed six homers in his past four starts after giving up just five over his first 13 outings. The result was the first time all season that Verlander allowed more than three runs, pushing his ERA all the way up to 1.82. The right-hander gave up a second inning solo shot to CJ Cron in a 1-2 loss to the Rays on June 19, but otherwise struck out 10. Verlander is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in eight career starts at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B)

Blake Snell slammed the door on the Nationals over the balance of his seven inning, one hit start after he allowed a pair of first inning free passes.

I got pissed; I was annoyed, said Snell on the subject of walking the first two batters.

The left-hander carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning until Anthony Rendon led off the frame with a double off the left field wall. Snell walked two more batters in the frame, although he was able to escape with the shutout intact. Snell fanned 10 and lowered his home ERA from 0.96 to 0.70, extending his club record by allowing just one earned run or fewer in a 10th straight home start.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) also dished some noteworthiness relating to Snell’s phenomenal outing:

Retired 18 straight, tying the third-longest streak of consecutive batters retired in team history, behind Matt Garza (22) on July 26, 2010, vs.
Detroit and Chris Archer (19) on July 29, 2015 vs. Detroit.

Made the 11th scoreless start of his career and matched the longest scoreless start of his career.

Reached double-digit strikeouts for the fourth time in his career, third this season. No other Rays pitcher has done so.

Became the seventh Ray to reach double-digit wins
before the All-Star break, first since Matt Moore (13) in 2013.

Allowed two runs or fewer for an AL-most 14th time this season, matching Washington’s Max Scherzer for most in the majors. And allowed one run or fewer for the 10 time, matching most in the majors.

Charlie Morton struck out 13 over seven scoreless frames on Tuesday against the Blue Jays. Morton allowed four hits and two walks en route to a win. The right-hander relinquished zero extra-base hits and threw 67 of 98 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) in his dominant outing — the fifth time this season that Morton has recorded double-digit strikeouts. Morton now sports a 3.13 K/BB over 95-2/3 innings and a .195 batting average against, making him one of only seven pitchers in the big leagues to hold opponents under a .200 average. In his last start against Tampa Bay, Morton allowed just one run on two hits and four walks, although he is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (1-1, 2B, 2 BB), Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (6-18, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (5-14, RBI, 3 BB)