X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

TNWN: Rays look to win a third consecutive game against Houston

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A pair of orange roofs graced Tropicana Field on Monday and Tuesday, as the Rays defeated the Houston Astros at home. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a travel day Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays made their way back to Houston, where they will butt heads with the Astros one more time in the final game of the best of five American League Division Series. Houston won the first two games of the set, while Tampa Bay won a pair of elimination games at home. The victors will face the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, starting Saturday.

The Rays enter play 3-0 in elimination postseason games this season and are 8-4 overall. They have dominated the series beyond the Justin Verlander/Gerrit Cole innings in Houston. With Verlander and Cole on the on the bump, Houston outscored Tampa Bay 8-0. Yet beyond that, in all the other innings of the series, the Rays have outscored Houston 17-5.

As Bradford Doolittle (ESPN) noted, the numbers all swing the Rays’ way. Tampa Bay has a 6-4 edge in homers in the series. They have that 17-13 edge in scoring. They have more walks, a better on-base percentage, a better slugging percentage. The Astros have been outplayed.

It is not clear if Yandy Diaz will be available. Diaz left Monday’s game with left foot soreness, and did not play on Tuesday. In his place, Matt Duffy collected two hits on Monday, while Joey Wendle hit an RBI double on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Rays pitching staff has limited Houston to 1-9 with runners in scoring position (.111 BA) over the last two games — something they hope to continue on Thursday. Put another way, the keys to any presumptive victory will be timely hitting, run prevention, and quality pitching.

Even though Tyler Glasnow is set to make his second postseason appearance (more on him below), Rays manager Kevin Cash acknowledged Wednesday that there will again be an all hands on deck approach to pitching in the series finale, with all of the team’s 12 pitchers available for this contest, including both Blake Snell and Charlie Morton (who pitched Monday) on short rest. In the bullpen day on Tuesday, not a single Tampa Bay hurler threw more than 29 pitches. The same can be expected from A.J. Hinch and the Astros.

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) will make his second and final ALDS appearance, pitching opposite of Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow will be pitching on an extra day’s rest after throwing 4-1/3 innings on Friday when he gave up four hits including a two-run homer to Jose Altuve. He struck out five. He is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Houston in regular season play, but 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in the postseason.

Gerrit Cole was historically dominant in the second game of the ALDS when he fanned 15 — an Astros franchise playoff record — in his 118-pitch, 7-2/3 inning outing. Cole is 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two 2019 starts against Tampa Bay, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP in postseason play. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (3-8, 2 RBI, BB), Ji-Man Choi (2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (4-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Yandy Diaz (2-3, HR, RBI), Tommy Pham (9-18, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-6), Joey Wendle (3-7, 3B, 3 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Astros — an ALDS preview

Rays ALDS Game Five Starting Lineup

  1. Meadows LF
  2. Pham DH
  3. Choi 1B
  4. d’Arnaud C
  5. Sogard 2B
  6. Garcia RF
  7. Wendle 3B
  8. Kiermaier C
  9. Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will be hosting three more official watch parties on Thursday in the Tampa Bay area. The first pitch is slated for 7:00, and the locations of the parties are below.

— Ever wonder about the cognitive dissonance between very wealthy people, like Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg, and, well…pretty much everyone else? Me too!

According to an article by Harren Walker (Vice), UC Berkeley psychologists Paul Diff and Dacher Keltner have done a number of studies over the past 10 years that suggest that the more material wealth an individual accumulates, the less likely that person is to have compassion and empathy for other people, and to use their wealth to help others in need.

Walker continued:

Upper-class individuals are also worse at recognizing other people’s emotions, and they’re less likely to pay attention to the people they’re interacting with.

— Harren Walker

In other words, Sternberg is living in a world where the realities of the majority of the Rays fan base do not match up with his own. Is he delusional for thinking that baseball fans in Tampa Bay and Montreal will glom onto his cockamamie leverage proposal to split the Rays between two cities for half a season? From a clinical perspective, there’s a strong possibility of that.

Rays ALDS Game Three pregame notes

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  • The Rays grounds crew prepared the turf for game three, and hopefully game four, of the ALDS on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays will take the field in their first home playoff game in six years while also trying to keep their impressive season alive. The Rays have dropped the first two contests in the best-of-five American League Division Series to the Astros, 6-2 and 3-1, in Houston.

More than 30,000 fans are expected Monday, as the upper deck will be opened for this ballgame, and for Tuesday’s game, should Tampa Bay win this afternoon. For what it’s worth, Tampa Bay ended the regular season by winning 15 of 17 games at the Trop.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash said he doesn’t plan on changing the lineup significantly today, even though Zack Greinke — whom Astros skipper A.J. Hinch is fully confident in — will be on the mound. Houston is 8-2 in games Greinke has started, which includes a 9-8 loss to the Rays at the end of August.

The New What Next

Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA), the winning pitcher in the AL Wildcard game, will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Zack Greinke (8-1, 3.02 ERA with Houston, 18-5, 2.93 ERA overall).

Charlie Morton gave up one run (unearned) on five hits and three walks while striking out four across innings to earn the win over the Athletics on Wednesday. Morton threw 94 pitches (56 strikes, 60% strike rate). Morton battled the Athletics but made the important big pitch when necessary, consequently coaxing a pair of inning-ending double plays to shut down the powerful Oakland lineup. Morton is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 career starts against his former team, and 3-2 with a 3.96 ERA in seven career postseason starts.

Morton spoke yesterday about facing his former teammates:

We got our backs to the wall a little bit here. So for me to get the opportunity to go out and try to get some quality innings, give our team a chance to win, yeah, I mean, these games are special when a lot’s on the line.

Probably some of the more memorable moments in baseball I’ll ever have are games I’ve pitched in the playoffs. This is a great opportunity for us, show what we’re made of, go out there against a big challenge here and see what we got.

— Charlie Morton

Zack Greinke gave up two hits and one walk while striking out nine through 8-1/3 scoreless innings against the Mariners on Wednesday. Greinke took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning before he allowed two singles to end his night. Greinke was dominant, registering 20 swinging strikes without allowing a three-ball count until the fifth inning. Greinke finished the regular season with a 2.93 ERA and 187 strikeouts over 208-2/3 innings. The right-hander is 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay, and 0-0 with a 7.94 ERA in one outing against this season. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-2, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (3-7, HR, 3 RBI), Yandy Diaz (1-3)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Astros — an ALDS preview

Rays ALDS Game Three Starting Lineup

  1. Diaz 3B
  2. Meadows LF
  3. Pham DH
  4. Choi 1B
  5. Garcia RF
  6. Lowe 2B
  7. d’Arnaud C
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— Oh, the memories. Let’s make some new memories today!

— Saturday night was fun even though the outcome was less so. Than you Tampa Bay Rays for putting together such a fun event!

— In the words of Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), of the 50 teams that lost the first two games of a best-of-five postseason series on the road, only seven came back to win the series, most recently the 2017 Yankees against Cleveland.

Rays ALDS game two pregame notes

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Al Lang Stadium, site of Saturday night’s ALDS watch party. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After a 6-2 loss in the opening game of the American League Division Series, the Tampa Bay Rays look to even the best-of-five-set against the Houston Astros. The Rays will head home tonight after the game.

Suffice it to say, in order for the Rays to defeat Houston with Gerrit Cole on the bump, they will need to play a cleaner game tonight. Tampa Bay walked five batters yesterday and committed a key error in the fifth inning when, against Chaz Roe, Yuli Gurriel popped up toward shallow right field. Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and Ji-Man Choi came together, yet the ball glanced off Lowe’s glove — on a ball that appeared to be an easier play for Meadows coming in — allowing two runs to score on the costly gaffe.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Gerrit Cole (Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA).

Blake Snell allowed two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out four over 2-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Snell allowed both runs in the first inning but recovered to deliver 1-1/3 scoreless frames before his exit after 62 pitches (37 strikes, 60% strike rate). Snell continued to be on a limited pitch count, although he threw his longest outing since his return from the IL. The southpaw finished the regular season with a 4.29 ERA and 147 strikeouts through 107 innings. Snell is 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA in six career starts against Houston.

Snell hopes to go five strong innings. The Rays are expected to rely heavily on the bullpen tonight, and they will have plenty of options available, including Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough.

Gerrit Cole allowed one run on four hits and two walks while striking out 10 over five innings against the Angels on Sunday. Cole registered 20 swinging strikes and 14 called strikes on only 92 pitches in the win. It has been a great run for Cole, as he ended the season as the first pitcher in big-league history to record nine consecutive double-digit strikeout games. The 29-year-old finished the regular season with a 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts across 212-1/3 innings. Cole is 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, and 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against this season. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (3-8, 2 RBI, BB), Ji-Man Choi (2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (4-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Yandy Diaz (2-3, HR, RBI), Tommy Pham (9-18, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-6), Joey Wendle (3-7, 3B, 3 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Astros — an ALDS preview

Rays ALDS Game Two Lineup

  1. Diaz 3B
  2. Meadows LF
  3. Pham DH
  4. Choi 1B
  5. Garcia RF
  6. B. Lowe 2B
  7. d’Arnaud C
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— Avisail Garcia is expected to be back in the starting lineup for Tampa Bay tonight.

— Remember, head to either Al Lang Stadium (in downtown St. Petersburg), or Curtis Hixon Waterfront Park (in Tampa) for the official team watch parties. The first pitch is set for 9:10.

Personally, I’ll be getting Rowdy at Al Lang Stadium (cough, location of the future home of the Tampa Bay Rays), although I hope to see evidence of lots of fans across the Bay Area!

TNWN: Rays vs. Athletics — an AL Wildcard preview

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  • Joey Wendle and the Rays arrived in Oakland where they’ll face the Athletics in the AL Wildcard game, on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After finishing the regular season within a game of one another, the Tampa Bay Rays trekked westward to Oakland, where they will face the Athletics in the AL Wildcard game, on Wednesday. The Rays dropped the final two games of their regular season schedule to the Blue Jays, while the Athletics are coming off a series split against the Mariners.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays are playing postseason baseball for the first time in six years, while the Athletics find themselves in the exact same spot as a season ago — winners of 97 games and needing to win a one-game series in order to move on to the ALDS. Last season Oakland fell to the Yankees 7-2.

Tampa Bay boasts one player from the 2013 roster, Kevin Kiermaier, yet, the Rays have a handful of players with playoff experience elsewhere, namely Tommy Pham, Eric Sogard, Jesus Aguilar, Matt Duffy, Emilio Pagan, and Charlie Morton. The young core of players also has a ton of experience with postseason play at the minor league level. Even though that experience may not necessarily be equitable in the apples-to-apples sense, it does count for something.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Both teams have sputtered somewhat in the final two weeks of the season, having performed from 5% to 7% under league average (a 95 wRC+ vs a 93 wRC+ respectfully). Still, the Rays have outperformed the slugging Athletics in almost every offensive category over that stretch, including ISO (.182 vs .156) and SLG (.421 vs .387). What is concerning, however, is Tampa Bay’s 30% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.

While the Athletics have a lot of pop from top to bottom — seven batters have hit at least 20 home runs, while three have topped the 30-homer mark — Oakland plays in one of the most unfriendly ballparks in the league as it relates to the long ball. According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, Oakland Coliseum is the 26th least home run friendly ballpark in baseball (Tropicana Field is 19th).

In Tampa Bay’s favor, Charlie Morton, who boasts a 10.4% HR/FB, will be on the mound on Wednesday. As Jim Turvey (DRaysBay) noted, “…of the 62 qualified starting pitchers in baseball in 2019, no one had a lower HR/9 rate than Charlie Morton. Mike Soroka tied with Morton atop the standings, allowing just 0.69 home runs per nine innings.” If Morton can keep the Athletics in the ballpark, as he did against the Yankees in his final regular-season tuneup, the Rays will have a great shot of playing beyond Wednesday. More on #CFM below.

Tampa Bay dropped the season series against Oakland three games to four, however, the Rays posted a four-run differential against the Athletics this season.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) in the one-game set. He’ll be opposed by left-hander Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA).

Charlie Morton allowed one hit and three walks across six scoreless frames while striking out nine Yankees on Wednesday. The hit — a two-out single by DJ LeMahieu in the sixth inning — was the only one given up by the Rays staff on the night. Morton ended the regular season with career-best performances across the board: a 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 4.21 K/BB over 194-2/3 innings. Over his career against Oakland, Morton is 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in seven starts (39-1/3 innings). He is 0-1 with a 1.65 ERA in three career starts at Oakland Coliseum.

Sean Manaea gave up one run on four hits and no walks while striking out five across six innings in his last start. The left-hander was in complete control throughout, tossing 54 of 82 pitches for strikes (66% strike rate). Manaea has won each of his last four outings and carries a pristine 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP across five starts into the postseason. The left-hander relies primarily on a whiffy 90 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sinking action and an 80 mph worm-killer slider with 12-6 movement, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone. He is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay (20 innings). Key Matchups: Travis d’Arnaud (2-2, RBI), Avisail Garcia (1-3), Guillermo Heredia (5-20, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3)

Noteworthiness

— Looking for somewhere to watch the ballgame? Join us at Old Northeast Tavern! You can find out more information below.

— Just a reminder of what kind of owner Stu Sternberg is.

At least one team, the Bucs, spends money on signage around the city of St. Pete. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

Stu didn’t push for any team signage around St. Petersburg (unlike the Bucs (pictured above is an example of the Bucs presence around the city), nor did he or the Rays set up any official watch parties akin to Jeff Vinic’s Lightning postseason bashes outside of Amalie Arena.

Adding insult to injury, according to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), he secured tickets for Stephen Bronfman at the game itself, in Oakland. There is no word whether he extended a similar invitation to any Pinellas or Hillsborough County officials. What a piece of work!

I get it, he’s publicly flirting with Bronfman in order to strike panic in St. Petersburg city officials. And this is the type of attention he is seeking, so I played right into the hands of the liberal version of Donald Trump. But still, now is neither the time nor the place.

I love this team and will support them, but seriously, fuck Stu Sternberg.

TNWN: Rays look to bounce back in season finale; Yandy Díaz to be activated from the IL

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  • Matt Duffy hit his first home run of the season Saturday afternoon, giving the Rays their only run of the contest against the Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A day after clinching their first postseason berth in six years, the Tampa Bay Rays fell to the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1 on Saturday. With the loss, the Rays can only tie the franchise mark for the best regular-season record ever, set by the 2008 ballclub.

With the loss and the Athletics’ 1-0 win, the Rays will be heading to Oakland for the AL Wildcard game.

Ryan Yarbrough got off to his second consecutive slow start on Saturday, allowing base hits to each of the first four batters he faced and surrendering a home run to Teoscar Hernandez — his second homer in as many days. Yarbrough eventually settled in and allowed just one hit over his final four frames. All told, he allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three across five innings. If the Rays advance to the ALDS, expect Yarbrough to pitch behind an opener. The southpaw enters the postseason with an 11-6 record, a 4.13 ERA and a 3.56 FIP, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 5.85 K/BB.

The Rays had nine base runners throughout the game, on three hits and six walks, but they couldn’t generate any offense, going 0-3 wRISP. Matt Duffy accounted for the only run of the day, slugging his first home run of the season in the top of the 7th inning, and cutting the Rays’ deficit to 3-1

Speaking of sluggers, Tampa Bay has activated Yandy Díaz from the 60-day Injured List. In order to make room for Díaz on the 40-man roster, reliever Cole Sulser has been designated for assignment.

Díaz appeared in an Instructional League game Friday and made six plate appearances, showing enough improvement to lead to his activation. He will be limited to DH/pinch-hit duties.

I saw some iPhone clips of it, and he looked pretty normal. The plan is for him to get on a plane. Get here this evening, and then we’ll see what we do with him tomorrow.

Yandy is not going to play the field, so he’s going to impact us, if we go that way, with his bat. Then we’ll decide if we run for him if needed, and stuff like that. But every day, we’re buying more time of him healing.

— Kevin Cask

Díaz hasn’t suited up since late July when he landed on the IL with a hairline fracture left foot. He was held out of baseball activities for nearly two months as a result of the injury.

With his return, Díaz could factor into postseason play for the Rays. The 28-year-old could be of value in the one-game matchup against the Athletics when southpaw Sean Manaea could start. Díaz has fared against left-handers all season, slashing .311 BA/.393 OBP/.583 SLG/.976 OPS with seven homers and a .272 ISO, when he has a platoon advantage.

The New What Next

The final game of the regular season is set for this afternoon with Blake Snell (6-7, 4.21 ERA) getting the start, pitching opposite of Clay Buchholz (1-5, 7.00 ERA).

Blake Snell allowed one run on two hits and three walks while striking out three over 1-2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Monday. Snell struggled with his command, allowing three free passes before being pulled in the second inning after allowing a run on a double. The Rays are still easing the left-hander back into his usual workload, and he was not expected to pitch more than a few innings. Snell has a 4.21 ERA with 143 strikeouts through 22 starts this season.

Clay Buchholz allowed six runs on six hits and three walks while striking out four over four innings against the Orioles on Monday. Buchholz was hit hard, allowing three home runs, including two in the fifth inning. The right-hander has a 1-5 record with a 7.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts across 11 starts this season. He is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two 2019 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-4, 2 2B), Austin Meadows (3-8, RBI), Tommy Pham (1-3), Joey Wendle (2-2)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Blue Jays — one last regular-season series preview

Rays 9/29/19 Starting Lineup

  1. Diaz DH
  2. Pham LF
  3. Choi 1B
  4. Garcia RF
  5. Kiermaier CF
  6. Robertson 2B
  7. Duffy 3B
  8. Zunino C
  9. Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— Eric Sogard said that he is making progress and he is taking some swings, and there is a possibility he could be available for Wednesday’s Wildcard game.

— Free on this afternoon? Join us at Golden Dinosaurs Vegan Deli for only last regular season watch party, as we celebrate the Rays playoff berth!

Let’s fill the patio with blue — both light and dark — grey, and sunburst yellow. Discounts for Rays fans…oh, and did I mention fun and camaraderie? Help cheer on OUR crew, hope to see you there!

Do they owe is a Wildcard? Of course they do, of course, they do!