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The New What Next: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part two

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Oriole Park at Camden Yards, site of the upcoming four-game series between the Rays and the Orioles. (Photo Credit: Baltimore Sun)

So it begins, the Tampa Bay Rays are set begin the most important stretch of their season on Friday, a period of action that finds them playing 40 games in 41 days. First stop Baltimore, where they are set to take on the Orioles in a four-game, three-day series starting Friday.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The American League East rivals met late last month in Baltimore, and the Rays took each of the two encounters that occurred. Unfortunately the first game of that series was rained out, hence the doubleheader on Saturday. Tampa Bay’s offense has fallen off the last few games, although the team is batting .259 (fifth in MLB) and boasts a .331 on-base percentage (sixth in MLB). The Rays are hovering around .500 but have lost three in a row.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is the worst team in baseball but at least they managed to put an end to an eight-game losing streak by beating Kansas City both on Wednesday and Thursday, consequently winning the series. The Orioles are 29th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, 27th in slugging percentage, and 29th in runs scored.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will turn to Jake Faria (3-1, 4.15 ERA), the bullpen (6-10, 4.35 ERA), Chris Archer (2-2, 5.32 ERA) and Blake Snell (4-2, 2.40 ERA). Buck Showalter will counter with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.30 ERA), Alex Cobb (0-4, 7.61 ERA), a pitcher to be named later, and Dylan Bundy (1-5, 5.31 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Jake Faria allowed one run on three hits and a walk over 5-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday. He struck out out four. The right-hander has now allowed no more than one run in five of his seven starts this season, although he has only lasted long enough to produce two quality starts thanks to the Rays reluctance to allow certain hurlers to face batters three times through the order. Faria is 1-0 with a 4.78 in five games (four starts) against Baltimore.

Kevin Gausman allowed just two hits and two walks while fanning six across nine scoreless innings on Saturday. He, however, did not factor into the decision. Gausman’s line is slightly misleading, as only 66 of his 113 pitches went for strikes. He also threw a low percentage first pitch strikes, although it did not come back to haunt him via walks or hard contact. Since getting knocked around for six earned runs in his season debut, Gausman has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his following six starts, and now owns a neat 3.30 ERA over 43-2/3 innings. This season he has relied on his 93 mph four-seam fastball with arm-side run and an 83 mph worm killer splitter, while also mixing in an 81 mph 12-6 slider. He is 5-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-10, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (2-8, HR, RBI), Rob Refsnyder (3-8, 2B, BB), Mallex Smith (3-7, 3B, BB), Denard Span (4-9, 2 2B, 3 RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI)

I will update this piece when Saturday’s starter for the Rays is announced.

Alex Cobb allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and a walk, while striking out five over six innings in a loss to the Athletics on Sunday. Cobb has put together back-to-back quality starts, although he is bereft of his first win of the season. His offense failed him Sunday, as the Orioles were able to push across just one run. In spite of solid performances in his last two outings, Cobb still sits with a 7.61 ERA/5.32 FIP and 2.03 WHIP as a result of a disastrous start to the season. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (4-9, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-2, 2B), Mallex Smith (1-2), Denard Span (2-3, 2B), Joey Wendle (2-3, RBI)

Chris Archer fanned six, walked none and scattered five hits over seven strong innings on Sunday. Previous to this start, Archer had performed to a 6.05 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, but he notched his second consecutive quality start and his third in his last four outings. His current peripherals still aren’t pretty, and he hasn’t been striking out batters at quite as prolific a rate as he had in the past, but he appears ready to move past his early season struggles and start to hack away at those ugly peripherals. Archer is 6-8 with a 4.92 ERA in 17 starts against Baltimore, including a 5-1/3 inning, four-run outing on April 26th.

I will update this piece when Saturday’s starter for the Orioles is announced.

Blake Snell allowed one run on four hits and two walks over 6-1/3 innings on Tuesday against the Braves. He struck out five. The southpaw threw first-pitch strikes to 16 of 25 batters and induced 13 swinging strikes, allowing him to Atlanta’s lineup off balance for most of the night. His only real mistake came on a solo home run from Ronald Acuna in the third inning, on a slider that hung up over the middle of the plate. His loss was of the hard luck variety, as it was due to a lack of run support. Otherwise, Snell has been outstanding over his last six starts, allowing two runs or fewer in each while posting a 4.78 K/BB over that span. Snell is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Baltimore,

Dylan Bundy allowed seven runs on five hits and two walks while not recording an out in the 15-7 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday. Bundy allowed four home runs over over a seven batter span, and managed to do so with only 28 pitches. Over his last three outings, Bundy has allowed 22 runs (19 earned) on 23 hits (including nine home runs) across just nine innings. Bundy started the season with a fantastic 1.42 ERA across 31-2/3 innings — with 40 punch outs and only one home run allowed — but has recently looked like a completely different pitcher. Bundy has relied primarily on his 92 mph four-seam fastball and an 82 mph slider, while also mixing in a 75 mph curveball, 84 mph changeup and 92 mph sinker. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-4), Brad Miller (4-11, 2B, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (4-7, RBI, BB), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Left-hander Anthony Banda will be promoted at some point this weekend. It is not immediately clear whether he would be added to the roster Friday (someone would need to be optioned to make room) or if he is being added as the 26th man for Saturday’s doubleheader.

Banda is 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A Durham, with 44 strikeouts and 16 walks over 36 innings. He was 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA in eight games last season for the Diamondbacks.

— The Rays have suffered another dent to their depth, as 21 year-old RHP Jose Mujica has been sidelined with a forearm strain. Mujica had shown well over his first six starts with Triple-A Durham, working to a 3.13 ERA with 32 punch outs against ten walks in 31-2/3 innings of work. His anticipated timeline is not yet known.

— The Orioles received another blow, as RHP Darren O’Day was placed on the 10-day DL with a hyper-extended right elbow. Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) wrote about the injury, saying:

Eduardo A. Encina provides some insight into the injury that sent righty Darren O’Day to the 10-day disabled list with a hyperextended right elbow. O’Day explains that a “freak accident” occurred during the middle innings of Tuesday’s game as he began stretching and getting loose. A teammate inadvertently ran into his arm while he was stretching it, hyperextending the right elbow and initially causing O’Day to fear that he’d suffered a serious injury. An MRI revealed no structural damage in O’Day’s right arm, and manager Buck Showalter actually said that the MRI was “remarkably good” for a pitcher in his mid-30s.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — one final series preview

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Corey Dickerson and the the Rays took the final game of the series with the Yankees on Thursday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After salvaging a win in the series finale with the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays return home on Friday, where they will kick off their final series of the season. Enter the Baltimore Orioles.

(Stats: MLB.com)

Dubbed the Battle For Third Place in the AL East, the Rays must win these last three games to end the season with 80 wins, and in third place … this after falling out of contention on Tuesday, as well missing an opportunity to end the campaign with a better than .500 record. Baltimore is coming off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates.

This dynamic duo of under performing ball clubs split a four-game set last weekend, and are knotted up at eight-games apiece in the season series — the Rays are 2-3 vs. Baltimore at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

When comparing pitching staffs over the last 14 days, one could assume that Tampa Bay has a major advantage over Baltimore, and they should be able to close out the season on a high note. The team also had a legitimate shot at sweeping the O’s last weekend, yet they couldn’t get the job done. The rest, as they say, is history; they dropped the next two games against the Yankees and consequently fell out of contention, relevancy, and favor with Bay Area sports fans that are now focused on the Bucs and Lightning.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the final three days Kevin Cash will turn to Jake Odorizzi (10-8, 4.26 ERA, 5.52 FIP), Chris Archer (9-12, 4.18 ERA, 3.43 FIP), and Blake Snell (4-7, 4.27 ERA, 4.46 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Wade Miley (8-14, 5.52 ERA, 5.22 FIP), and presumably Miguel Castro (3-2, 3.29 ERA, 4.87 FIP) and Kevin Gausman (11-11, 4.81 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi has enjoyed a strong finish to his 2017 season, which should build his trade value going into the off season; there already are trade rumors surrounding the lanky right-hander. In two of his last four starts, Odo carried a no-hitter through at least five innings. He is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA in September — a 22-1/3 inning run that has included 26 strikeouts. He’s allowed just three earned runs over four September starts, allowing him to lower his ERA from 4.85 to 4.26. In his last turn, Odorizzi allowed a first-inning run, but silenced Baltimore’s hitters bats the rest of the way.

Miley has been awful throughout most of the season, yet he is looking to finish strong in his final start. In his last three outings, Miley has performed to a 13.94 ERA over 10-1/3 innings. He has performed similarly against Tampa Bay this season, allowing seven runs on nine hits and nine walks over 13 innings of work. If I may, that’s no way to throw if you’re looking to have the remaining option on your contract picked up this winter. I digress. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (4-12, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-15, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-7, 2B, 3 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (6-22, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB)

Archer lost in Baltimore on Sunday after he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just 3-2/3 innings of work. He looks to right the ship, and end the season on a high note, after dropping five consecutive decisions for the first time since June 11-July 15, 2016 (6). Over that span he has allowed 21 runs over 16-2/3 innings, making for a discouraging stretch.

Castro was handed a loss after he allowed two runs on one hit and three walks over a 1-2/3 inning relief appearance against Boston. He struck out two. The right-hander hasn’t started a game this season, so I wouldn’t expect him to pitch deeply on Saturday. In nine innings of relief work this season against Tampa Bay, Castro has allowed four runs (two earned) on eight hits and and three walks. He has struck out three. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-1, 2B, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Evan Longoria (1-4, RBI, 2BB), Logan Morrison (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-5, 2B, RBI)

Snell suffered a loss on Tuesday (his first since July 24) when the Yankees chased him after just one inning — snapping a 10-start unbeaten streak (the longest of his career). The poor start came on the heels of his best outing of the season, a 7 IP/2 H/0 ER/5 K outing against the Cubs.

Gausman wasn’t slated to start again this season, however, with Jeremy Hellickson unavailable due to a back issue, Showalter will hand him the ball for one final outing. He’s coming off a loss to Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs in just four innings of work, but prior to that he performed to a 2.25 ERA in four September starts. The 26-year-old right-hander, that owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 179-2/3 innings this season, Blanked the Rays over six innings on July 24 while fanning eight. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-8, 2B, RBI), Lucas Duda (1-4), Trevor Plouffe (4-9, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Cesar Puello (1-2, RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-8, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 3B, BB), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

LBWMF: costly decision making proves fatal for the Rays

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(Photo Credit: The Associated Press)

…In the bottom of the inning, with the Tampa Bay Rays ahead by a run, Rays skipper Kevin Cash made a difficult decision — keep closer Alex Colome on the mound for the second-straight inning.


Source: FanGraphs

The decision proved costly. Colome has not fared well in these types of situations, and true to form the right-hander was not sharp. He allowed two hits and two walks, and subsequently gave up the lead on a sacrifice-fly. This, after El Caballo blew a two inning save on April 23rd (vs. the Astros) when he allowed a run on two hits and a walk over a pair of innings.

I’ve asked a lot of Alex, there is no doubt about that, Cash said in his post game presser. He’s thrown a lot for us. I knew I was stretching him, but you want your best guy out there when the game is on the line. so extremely happy with the way he performed. I’d asked a lot of him going into that. His workload has been fairly heavy. … We’ve asked a lot. Alex is going to take the ball anytime you ask him so it’s kind of on me to manage that.

Without a lefty pen, Cash made the decision to go with de facto LOOGY, summoning Danny Farquhar to face Seth Smith.

Smith worked a four-pitch walk, completing a late inning rally for the Orioles for the win.

Cash did an excellent job managing the ‘pen on Tuesday, however, his decisions last night and Monday absolutely were part and parcel for why the Rays lost both of those contests.

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The New What Next: Rays vs. Orioles — a series preview

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The Rays begin an eight-game, nine-day roadtrip in Baltimore on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After winning their second consecutive home stand, yet dropping their first home series, the Tampa Bay Rays will begin an eight-game, nine day roadtrip. First stop Baltimore, where they’ll take on the Orioles over the next three days.

The Rays have been a nice surprise thus far. They are winners of four of their last six, and sit at the .500 mark at 10-10 on the season.  The test for them will be to actually win games on this road trip — and moving forward — after going 1-6 on their disastrous trek through New York and Boston a couple of weeks back.

The Orioles have won four of their last five games — including the first two games against Boston this past weekend — after winning the series against the Cincinnati Reds. At 12-5 on the season, Baltimore currently leads the AL East by a game and a half over the Yankees, and seven and a half games over the last place Blue Jays.

(Stats: ESPN)

The O’s have played six series so far in 2017, and they have won five of them; something no one else in the majors can claim. That is, they  have yet to lose a series. Interestingly enough though, over the last 14 days, the Rays have outperformed the Orioles in almost every offensive category.  It will be interesting to see if Baltimore’s pitching staff can contain the Rays, and if Tampa Bay’s bullpen can contain the Orioles.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (2-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.70 FIP), Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 3.48 ERA), and Alex Cobb (1-2, 4.88 ERA, 4.59 FIP) over the next three days. Buck Showalter will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 5.51 ERA, 5.45 FIP), Wade Miley (1-0, 1.89 ERA, 3.15 FIP), and Dylan Bundy (3-1, 1.37 ERA, 1.82 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Archer has totaled 10-2/3 innings pitched over his last two starts, compared to 14 2/3 innings pitched over his first two outings. Working in the right-hander’s favor, however, Archer has received 21 runs of support, and hasn’t allowed a homer this season. The righty threw 104 pitches (67 strikes) to get through his five innings of work in his last outing, as the Tigers routinely pushed Archer into deep counts. Whatever the case, he’s still enjoying a strong start to the 2017 season with a 3.20 ERA/1.70 FIP, and a 27:8 strike to walk ratio through 25-1/3 innings.

Jimenez turned in his first quality start of the year on Wednesday against Cincinnati, tossing 7-2/3 scoreless innings. Since joining the Orioles, Jimenez is 7–2 with a 3.12 ERA in interleague games, but 20–29 with a 5.03 ERA against American League ball clubs…but alas, he’s 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA against the Rays. He leans primarily on his four-seam fastball (34% of the time) which he uses to coax grounders, his sinker (27% of the time), and his splitter (18% of the time) and slider (14% of the time) when he wants a pop up. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (4-16, HR, 3 RBI), Logan Morrison (5-8, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-8, BB), Rickie Weeks Jr. (6-13, 2B, 3B, 3 BB)

Ramirez was superb in his start on 4/20 in place of Jake Odorizzi. He allowed just one run and two hits in five innings against the Tigers. One thing that is concerning, Ramirez has given up three home runs in his past four appearances.

Miley is coming off an excellent start in Cincinnati, where he tossed eight scoreless frames. The outing was the longest by a Baltimore starter this season. Miley tends to rely on his 91 mph sinker (41% of the time) with a lot of arm-side run, his 92 mph four seam fastball (22% of the time) with good “rising action,” and his 84 mph slider (22% of the time) — by far his best pitch. He’ll also mix in a 77 mph curveball (10% of the time) to coax a fly ball from time to time. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Derek Norris (3-3, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (4-13, 2B, 2 BB)

Cobb will be try to snap a three-game losing streak and win his first game on the road since September 2016. He’s allowed 20 hits over his last two starts, and four earned runs in each of his last three, however, boding in his favor, Cobb rang up seven batters in his last outing — six swinging, and three on the changeup he’s been trying to “find.”

Bundy has pitched to a 1.37 ERA/1.82 FIP over four quality starts. The right-hander held Boston scoreless over seven-plus innings on Friday, yet was only given two runs of support…although the two runs were plenty. Bundy scattered six base hits in that outing, and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four starts. The hurler relies regularly on his 92 mph four seam fastball (42% of the time) with good “rising action,” and a whiffy 84 mph slider (25% of the time). He also tends to mix in an 84 mph worm-burner changeup (18% of the time), and a 76 mph curveball (13% of the time) with good 12-6 bite. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-5, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2)