X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — one final series preview

By Leave a Comment

Corey Dickerson and the the Rays took the final game of the series with the Yankees on Thursday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After salvaging a win in the series finale with the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays return home on Friday, where they will kick off their final series of the season. Enter the Baltimore Orioles.

(Stats: MLB.com)

Dubbed the Battle For Third Place in the AL East, the Rays must win these last three games to end the season with 80 wins, and in third place … this after falling out of contention on Tuesday, as well missing an opportunity to end the campaign with a better than .500 record. Baltimore is coming off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates.

This dynamic duo of under performing ball clubs split a four-game set last weekend, and are knotted up at eight-games apiece in the season series — the Rays are 2-3 vs. Baltimore at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

When comparing pitching staffs over the last 14 days, one could assume that Tampa Bay has a major advantage over Baltimore, and they should be able to close out the season on a high note. The team also had a legitimate shot at sweeping the O’s last weekend, yet they couldn’t get the job done. The rest, as they say, is history; they dropped the next two games against the Yankees and consequently fell out of contention, relevancy, and favor with Bay Area sports fans that are now focused on the Bucs and Lightning.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the final three days Kevin Cash will turn to Jake Odorizzi (10-8, 4.26 ERA, 5.52 FIP), Chris Archer (9-12, 4.18 ERA, 3.43 FIP), and Blake Snell (4-7, 4.27 ERA, 4.46 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Wade Miley (8-14, 5.52 ERA, 5.22 FIP), and presumably Miguel Castro (3-2, 3.29 ERA, 4.87 FIP) and Kevin Gausman (11-11, 4.81 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi has enjoyed a strong finish to his 2017 season, which should build his trade value going into the off season; there already are trade rumors surrounding the lanky right-hander. In two of his last four starts, Odo carried a no-hitter through at least five innings. He is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA in September — a 22-1/3 inning run that has included 26 strikeouts. He’s allowed just three earned runs over four September starts, allowing him to lower his ERA from 4.85 to 4.26. In his last turn, Odorizzi allowed a first-inning run, but silenced Baltimore’s hitters bats the rest of the way.

Miley has been awful throughout most of the season, yet he is looking to finish strong in his final start. In his last three outings, Miley has performed to a 13.94 ERA over 10-1/3 innings. He has performed similarly against Tampa Bay this season, allowing seven runs on nine hits and nine walks over 13 innings of work. If I may, that’s no way to throw if you’re looking to have the remaining option on your contract picked up this winter. I digress. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (4-12, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-15, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-7, 2B, 3 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (6-22, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB)

Archer lost in Baltimore on Sunday after he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just 3-2/3 innings of work. He looks to right the ship, and end the season on a high note, after dropping five consecutive decisions for the first time since June 11-July 15, 2016 (6). Over that span he has allowed 21 runs over 16-2/3 innings, making for a discouraging stretch.

Castro was handed a loss after he allowed two runs on one hit and three walks over a 1-2/3 inning relief appearance against Boston. He struck out two. The right-hander hasn’t started a game this season, so I wouldn’t expect him to pitch deeply on Saturday. In nine innings of relief work this season against Tampa Bay, Castro has allowed four runs (two earned) on eight hits and and three walks. He has struck out three. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-1, 2B, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Evan Longoria (1-4, RBI, 2BB), Logan Morrison (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-5, 2B, RBI)

Snell suffered a loss on Tuesday (his first since July 24) when the Yankees chased him after just one inning — snapping a 10-start unbeaten streak (the longest of his career). The poor start came on the heels of his best outing of the season, a 7 IP/2 H/0 ER/5 K outing against the Cubs.

Gausman wasn’t slated to start again this season, however, with Jeremy Hellickson unavailable due to a back issue, Showalter will hand him the ball for one final outing. He’s coming off a loss to Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs in just four innings of work, but prior to that he performed to a 2.25 ERA in four September starts. The 26-year-old right-hander, that owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 179-2/3 innings this season, Blanked the Rays over six innings on July 24 while fanning eight. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-8, 2B, RBI), Lucas Duda (1-4), Trevor Plouffe (4-9, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Cesar Puello (1-2, RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-8, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 3B, BB), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

LBWMF: costly decision making proves fatal for the Rays

By Leave a Comment

(Photo Credit: The Associated Press)

…In the bottom of the inning, with the Tampa Bay Rays ahead by a run, Rays skipper Kevin Cash made a difficult decision — keep closer Alex Colome on the mound for the second-straight inning.


Source: FanGraphs

The decision proved costly. Colome has not fared well in these types of situations, and true to form the right-hander was not sharp. He allowed two hits and two walks, and subsequently gave up the lead on a sacrifice-fly. This, after El Caballo blew a two inning save on April 23rd (vs. the Astros) when he allowed a run on two hits and a walk over a pair of innings.

I’ve asked a lot of Alex, there is no doubt about that, Cash said in his post game presser. He’s thrown a lot for us. I knew I was stretching him, but you want your best guy out there when the game is on the line. so extremely happy with the way he performed. I’d asked a lot of him going into that. His workload has been fairly heavy. … We’ve asked a lot. Alex is going to take the ball anytime you ask him so it’s kind of on me to manage that.

Without a lefty pen, Cash made the decision to go with de facto LOOGY, summoning Danny Farquhar to face Seth Smith.

Smith worked a four-pitch walk, completing a late inning rally for the Orioles for the win.

Cash did an excellent job managing the ‘pen on Tuesday, however, his decisions last night and Monday absolutely were part and parcel for why the Rays lost both of those contests.

Looking for a more expansive game summery? Check out:

DRaysBay

Rays Radio blog

Tampa Bay Times

The New What Next: Rays vs. Orioles — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Rays begin an eight-game, nine-day roadtrip in Baltimore on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After winning their second consecutive home stand, yet dropping their first home series, the Tampa Bay Rays will begin an eight-game, nine day roadtrip. First stop Baltimore, where they’ll take on the Orioles over the next three days.

The Rays have been a nice surprise thus far. They are winners of four of their last six, and sit at the .500 mark at 10-10 on the season.  The test for them will be to actually win games on this road trip — and moving forward — after going 1-6 on their disastrous trek through New York and Boston a couple of weeks back.

The Orioles have won four of their last five games — including the first two games against Boston this past weekend — after winning the series against the Cincinnati Reds. At 12-5 on the season, Baltimore currently leads the AL East by a game and a half over the Yankees, and seven and a half games over the last place Blue Jays.

(Stats: ESPN)

The O’s have played six series so far in 2017, and they have won five of them; something no one else in the majors can claim. That is, they  have yet to lose a series. Interestingly enough though, over the last 14 days, the Rays have outperformed the Orioles in almost every offensive category.  It will be interesting to see if Baltimore’s pitching staff can contain the Rays, and if Tampa Bay’s bullpen can contain the Orioles.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (2-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.70 FIP), Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 3.48 ERA), and Alex Cobb (1-2, 4.88 ERA, 4.59 FIP) over the next three days. Buck Showalter will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 5.51 ERA, 5.45 FIP), Wade Miley (1-0, 1.89 ERA, 3.15 FIP), and Dylan Bundy (3-1, 1.37 ERA, 1.82 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Archer has totaled 10-2/3 innings pitched over his last two starts, compared to 14 2/3 innings pitched over his first two outings. Working in the right-hander’s favor, however, Archer has received 21 runs of support, and hasn’t allowed a homer this season. The righty threw 104 pitches (67 strikes) to get through his five innings of work in his last outing, as the Tigers routinely pushed Archer into deep counts. Whatever the case, he’s still enjoying a strong start to the 2017 season with a 3.20 ERA/1.70 FIP, and a 27:8 strike to walk ratio through 25-1/3 innings.

Jimenez turned in his first quality start of the year on Wednesday against Cincinnati, tossing 7-2/3 scoreless innings. Since joining the Orioles, Jimenez is 7–2 with a 3.12 ERA in interleague games, but 20–29 with a 5.03 ERA against American League ball clubs…but alas, he’s 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA against the Rays. He leans primarily on his four-seam fastball (34% of the time) which he uses to coax grounders, his sinker (27% of the time), and his splitter (18% of the time) and slider (14% of the time) when he wants a pop up. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (4-16, HR, 3 RBI), Logan Morrison (5-8, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-8, BB), Rickie Weeks Jr. (6-13, 2B, 3B, 3 BB)

Ramirez was superb in his start on 4/20 in place of Jake Odorizzi. He allowed just one run and two hits in five innings against the Tigers. One thing that is concerning, Ramirez has given up three home runs in his past four appearances.

Miley is coming off an excellent start in Cincinnati, where he tossed eight scoreless frames. The outing was the longest by a Baltimore starter this season. Miley tends to rely on his 91 mph sinker (41% of the time) with a lot of arm-side run, his 92 mph four seam fastball (22% of the time) with good “rising action,” and his 84 mph slider (22% of the time) — by far his best pitch. He’ll also mix in a 77 mph curveball (10% of the time) to coax a fly ball from time to time. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Derek Norris (3-3, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (4-13, 2B, 2 BB)

Cobb will be try to snap a three-game losing streak and win his first game on the road since September 2016. He’s allowed 20 hits over his last two starts, and four earned runs in each of his last three, however, boding in his favor, Cobb rang up seven batters in his last outing — six swinging, and three on the changeup he’s been trying to “find.”

Bundy has pitched to a 1.37 ERA/1.82 FIP over four quality starts. The right-hander held Boston scoreless over seven-plus innings on Friday, yet was only given two runs of support…although the two runs were plenty. Bundy scattered six base hits in that outing, and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four starts. The hurler relies regularly on his 92 mph four seam fastball (42% of the time) with good “rising action,” and a whiffy 84 mph slider (25% of the time). He also tends to mix in an 84 mph worm-burner changeup (18% of the time), and a 76 mph curveball (13% of the time) with good 12-6 bite. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-5, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2)

Rays set to take on Orioles and Yankees on Tuesday; Archer returns from WBC

By Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer looks on during a Pool C game of the 2017 World Baseball Classic against Columbia at Miami Marlins Stadium on Friday in Miami. (Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays will play their first split squad game of the spring today, with one squad heading to Sarasota to take on the Orioles and the other staying in Port Charlotte to host the Yankees.

First, a little house keeping

— Mallex Smith made an outstanding catch to rob Joe Mauer of a home run in the first inning of Tuesday’s contest against the Twins.

Smith also pushed a bunt past the Twins third baseman for a leadoff single, drew an errant pickoff throw to first (that was mishandled) which allowed him to move up to second, advanced to third on a fly-ball to right and finally scored on a sacrifice-fly to center.

Rays manager Kevin Cash was complimentary of Smith for his work on bunting.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player work that hard at it. So he’s pretty special in that regard.

Following the game, Smith spoke about the flashy tools he showcased Tuesday.


(Audio Courtesy of Rays Radio)

— Nick Franklin continues to stake his claim for a place on the Opening Day roster. Franklin collected three hits yesterday — one to left, to center and to right — and raised his spring average to .571 (12-21). Finding a roster spot, however, might not be the easiest of tasks.

Because of his slow progress in rehabilitating from offseason heel surgery, Matt Duffy will likely start the season on the disabled list, meaning Tim Beckham — who also is having a strong spring — is expected to get the most of the reps at short. Compound that with the fact that the Rays will have to create a roster spot in order to add Rickie Weeks to the 25-man. It is plausible for Franklin to fill the super utility role, however, he will have to show off his defensive tools in the outfield and in the middle infield.

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Jose De Leon remains very much a prospect in progress. De Leon, acquired from the Dodgers for 2B Logan Forsythe, said he felt he took “a step forward” Monday, allowing three runs on two hits (one a 3-run HR) and a walk over three innings. That’s relative, because his first outing was really bad and his second was just okay. He was 90-93 with his fastball but command remains elusive, evidenced when he followed a 15-pitch first inning with a 26-pitch second, and needed 54 overall to get the nine outs. Manager Kevin Cash said De Leon’s command was “a little bit better,” but it’s obvious he needs more work.

— Of bumps, bruises and strains. Brad Boxberger (lat/back) said his the bullpen session he threw Monday went well, and he is scheduled to throw another tomorrow. Still, no date has been set for his exhibition debut, although “he still feels he definitely will be ready for the April 2 opener,” writes Topkin. Shawn Tolleson said his back has been feeling good and he is eager to get on the mound today for his second spring outing.

The New What Next

Blake Snell will get the start against the Orioles in Sarasota, and will be followed by Hunter Wood, Chih-Wei Hu, Ryan Yarbrough and Jake Faria. Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. will make the trip to Sarasota, while Smith and Kevin Kiermaier will stay home. Jake Odorizzi will get the start against the Yankees in Port Charlotte, and will be followed by Shawn Tolleson, Jaime Schultz, Austin Pruitt and Diego Moreno.

Rays 3/14/17 Starting Lineup vs. Baltimore

Robertson SS
Franklin 2B
Dickerson LF
Souza RF
Gillapsie 1B
Casali C
Peterson DH
Leonard 3B
Lee CF
Snell LHP

Rays 3/14/17 Starting Lineup vs. New York

Smith CF
Kiermaier DH
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Weeks 1B
Beckham SS
Maile C
Bauers LF
Varona RF
Odorizzi RHP

Notheworthiness

— Chris Archer rejoined the Rays on Monday, and will pitch in a minor league game in Port Charlotte on Thursday to remain on schedule for Opening Day.

Per Topkin, there was some talk of Team USA officials having Archer pitch instead on Friday in San Diego, but he will stick to the original plan and stay with the Rays.

The right-hander is scheduled to pitch next on March 22 — the date of the WBC championship game — and could be available then if Team USA is playing.

Jake Odorizzi will not be added to the United States roster for the second round, due to a scheduling conflict.