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A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Rays fall to BoSox, 2-1; Jake Odorizzi placed on 10-day DL

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Rays reliever Erasmo Ramirez takes a breather after giving up a homer to Mitch Moreland on his first pitch. Ramirez settles down and allows nothing else through four innings. (Photo Credit: Associated Press)

The Tampa Bay Rays lost Jake Odorizzi to the injury bug on Saturday — more specifically to left hamstring tightness — as the team fell to the Boston Red Sox, 2-1. Tampa Bay has split the first two games of a four-game set with Boston.

On the first pitch of the second inning, Odorizzi threw a breaking pitch to first baseman Mitch Moreland, then instantly grimaced on the follow through — also grabbing at the top of his left thigh area. Ron Porterfield and Rays skipper Kevin Cash quickly made their way to the mound and watched Odorizzi throw a pair of practice pitches. The look on Odorizzi’s face spoke volumes: he was in no shape to continue.

The broadcast team, DeWayne and BA, pointed out that Odorizzi grabbed the same spot where he was hit by a Jose Bautista line drive six days prior, in his last start against Toronto. He stayed in to pitch three more innings that day, and did all his normal between-starts work without worry — Jake reportedly felt fine. Yet he acknowledged the correlation between this injury and the line drive following the game:

It wasn’t an issue from when it happened until that pitch.

Following the ball-game, the Rays placed Odorizzi on the 10-day DL with what is hoped to be a minor injury; recalling Chase Whitely in the process. Whitley is expected to pitch in relief.

In light of the departure, Erasmo Ramirez took the mound in relief…and was greeted rather rudely by Moreland, who hit a first-pitch solo shot to right, on a center cut four-seam fastball for a Boston lead. That, however, was the only run they would score off Ramirez.

Erasmo spent the rest of his outing working at the bottom of the zone with his fastball, while keeping Boston’s hitters off balance with his slider that drew three whiffs on six swings. Ramirez gave Tampa Bay four solid innings on 46 pitches, allowing three hits while striking out two.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay answered in the third inning against Chris Sale. Kevin Kiermaier took a walk then moved to second on a one-out single to left by Steven Souza Jr. Evan Longoria plated the Rays’ only run with a two-out single to center, ending his 1-for-22 career stretch against the left-hander. Tampa Bay eventually loaded the bases with two outs, but Sale limited damage by striking out Derek Norris to end the threat. That started a 4-1/3 inning stretch where Sale allowed just a walk while striking out eight.

After Ramirez, Tommy Hunter worked a perfect sixth inning, only to get into trouble in the seventh.

Hunter allowed singles to the righty-killer that is Mitch Moreland, as well as Xander Bogaerts to open the frame. Pablo Sandoval grounded into a 3–6 fielder’s choice, allowing Moreland to move up to third. After walking Chris Young to load the bases, Xavier Cedeno entered the game to have switch-hitting Sandy Leon hit right-handed. The irony being that Leon is by far a better right-handed hitter, with the catcher slashing .318 BA/.395 OBP/.485 SLG/.880 OPS at home against lefties from the right side.

Cedeno, who has been rather suspect of late, jammed Leon with an inside cutter and coaxed a broken-bat grounder to Daniel Robertson at second. Robertson elected to get the sure out at first, while Moreland crossed the plate for the go-ahead run. After an intentional walk of Dustin Pedroia, Cedeno got Andrew Benintendi to ground into the shift, limiting damage to a single run.

That was frustrating simply because you felt like you get the right guy in there, you make the right move, you make the right pitch, everything goes your way, but we don’t quite get the ball hit hard enough to turn a double play, Cash said in his post-game presser. No fault to anybody — X was outstanding, and Robby got the only out he could get.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) made mention of the game changing play:

Robertson explained why he didn’t throw to second — his positioning, where he caught the ball, the potential to hit the runner with the throw — then saying “in hindsight, maybe I should have tried to give it a shot.” Boston manager John Farrell also said he thought they would try for two.

The Rays mounted one last rally against set-up man Matt Barnes, who walked Souza and the pinch hitting Corey Dickerson with just one out. Longoria stepped to the plate with intent to put his team ahead, yet the face of the franchise grounded hard into a 5–4–3 double play, ending the inning.

Craig Kimbrel closed out the game with a sharp 1-2-3 ninth.

The New What Next

The Rays play game three of four against Boston on Sunday. Alex Cobb (1-1, 3.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP) will toe the rubber opposite lefty Drew Pomeranz (0-1, 1.50 ERA, 1.45 FIP).

Cobb has been good over his first two starts of the season. His ERA is in good order (even though his FIP isn’t), and he has limited walks, although he hasn’t rung up a ton of batters and and he has allowed homers at a high rate.

Pomeranz’ first start was encouraging, spinning six innings of one-run ball against the Orioles. The left-hander admitted to being a bit sore after the outing, although he doesn’t think it’s anything to be concerned about (as it relates to his previous forearm issues). He has been a two pitch pitcher thus far, relying upon a whiffy four seam fastball, and a hard curveball with sharp downward bite. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, BB), Brad Miller (6-13, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-5, BB)

You can read about today’s pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.

Rays 4/16/17 Starting Lineup

Souza Jr RF
Kiermaier CF
Longoria DH
Miller 2B
Weeks 1B
Dickerson LF
Robertson 3B
Sucre C
Beckham SS
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

— Jim Turvey (DRaysBay) implores you to keep a a close eye on the Rays bullpen while Odorizzi is shelved.

Alex Cobb evolving as a pitcher; MLB unveils holiday uniforms

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Alex Cobb is evolving as a pitcher. (Photo Credit: Butch Dill/USA Today Sports)

In an interesting article titled Alex Cobb adjusting to life without his changeup, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the evolution of the Cobb’s pitch repertoire.

Topkin noted that Cobb made a fundamental change in his repertoire:

…throwing his curveball more frequently and in more pressing situations. On Monday he threw it 43 times, and his changeup only 10, in 102 pitches.

The reason for the change? Due to the fact that a changeup is a feel pitch, it takes longer to regain the muscle memory needed to throw it with consistency. And because he can’t rely upon his split-changeup at the moment to get swings and misses, Cobb has become fond of his curveball.

Get in those situations where I need that swing and miss, and that’s my best offspeed pitch right now. You kind of learn to go with whatever the hot hand is that day. My whole career I’ve been changeup dominant and going to that when needing swing and misses and strikeouts.

So I just have to relearn how to pitch a little bit using the curveball. It’s a great pitch. But I can’t wait for all three of them to be here.

Alex Cobb pitch usage from 2007 to 2016. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

Alex Cobb pitch usage in 2017. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

The question begs, are the results thus far at least complimentary to that of Cobb in his prime?

Cobb went 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA/3.29 FIP in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, combining for a 7.9 WAR. Yet he returned from Tommy John surgery last season (in September) and went 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA/5.60 FIP, with a -0.8 WAR.

Jim Turvey (DRaysBay) found that in two-strike counts, a time when he once went to the splitter reliably, Cobb has thrown the splitter just 22 percent of the time in his two 2017 starts. Instead, it has been the sinker and the curveball each getting over 30 percent usage.

So far the results have been good. Cobb has slashed 3.46 ERA/4.74 FIP/3.42 xFIP over 13 innings of work while allowing five earned runs, and posted an 11/2 strike to ball rate. He’s also induced whiffs on his breaking stuff 18.75% of the time.

In short, Cobb has been effective thus far. However, the right-hander knows something that we may not — when he said, “I can’t wait for all three of them to be here,” he knows that in order for him to be effective over the long-term, he must get back to being a three-pitch hurler before the league catches up to him.

Stats and figures: FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball (unless otherwise noted)

Rays holiday uniforms

MLB has unveiled its new line of Special Event uniforms for the 2017 season, including those to be worn by the Rays (seen above).

Some are pretty great looking (Father’s Day uniforms and All-Star Game hats), while others are pretty overwhelming (I’m looking at you Memorial Day and Home Run Derby uniforms).

A detailed look at the uniforms, hats and socks can be found below, thanks to SportsLogos.net.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Alex Cobb hurls five solid innings, Rays win 8-3

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In his first start MLB start since Tommy John surgery, Alex Cobb kept the Blue Jays to two runs over five innings, including strikeouts. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Friday, Alex Cobb returned to the mound for the first time in almost two years, putting together an impressive start reminiscent of his pre-Tommy John surgery self.

Jose Bautista, a batter who’s had a measured amount of success against Cobb (3-9, RBI), hit leadoff for Toronto. Cobb left a few pitches left up in the zone — including a hanging of a curveball — against Joey Bats, but was able to collect himself and keep the ball down for the rest of the at-bat, and eventually caught Bautista looking on a well located changeup at the knees.

Next up was Josh Donaldson, who Cobb was able to quickly get ahead of. Unfortunately the righty couldn’t put him away, as Donaldson hit a ground-rule double that rattled around the rafters before landing on the warning track, and over the center-field fence. Two pitches later, Edwin Encarnacion lashed a liner to center, plating the Blue Jays first run. After 28 pitches, and a couple of runs, the inning was over.

In the second inning, Cobb caught Melvin Upton Jr. looking on a fastball up in the zone, but gave up a single to left-field to Kevin Pillar after getting ahead in the count. Cobb coaxed a fielder’s choice to Devon Travis, resulting in an out at second, before he walked Bautista. Alex was frustrated, but was able to pop Donaldson up to end the frame without incurring any further damage…well, with the exception of 25 pitches in the inning and 53 pitches on the night, going into the third.

Around this point in the ballgame, Dave and Andy (on the radio side) pointed out that Cobb hadn’t really been a ground ball coaxing machine. But that changed when Encarnacion stepped into the batter’s box in the third.

The former (and potentially future) ace began to consistently locate his pitches, resulting in weak ground ball outs. Encarnacion grounded out to third on the first pitch of the third, and later on Cobb collected a pair of back-to-back grounders to efficiently end the fourth inning.

Cobb punctuated his return to the mound by fanning side (Travis, Bautista, and Donaldson) in the top of the fifth, needing only 15 pitches to dramatically end his outing to the boisterous applause of the Rays faithful in attendance.

To be clear, it wasn’t the dominant Cobb we’ve grown to know. Sure, he threw 14-of-20 first pitch strikes and bounced back from a two-run hole to hold Toronto scoreless for the remainder of his time on the bump. However, the 28 year-old righty was bereft of his swing and miss stuff; all but one of Cobb’s seven strikeouts were of the caught looking variety, while Alex collected only seven total whiffs. But, as an initial step forward, he laid an excellent foundation from which to build upon.

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Meanwhile, Tampa Bay rallied against Marcus Stroman to tie the game at two with runs in the second and third innings.

In the second, Logan Morrison walked then went to third on Nick Franklin’s double to right. He eventually come home on Corey Dickerson’s groundout to second. Then in the third, Logan Forsythe singled to center and moved to second on an error. Two fielder’s choice groundouts later, Forsythe came home and scored the tying run.

In the sixth, LoMo homered after Matt Duffy reached on a double to right, giving the Rays the lead for good. It was Morrison’s second homer in as many games.

Tampa Bay poured it on in the seventh. Luke Maile started the rally with a “Game 162” homer that barely cleared the wall in left off Francisco Liriano. Then after Forsythe reached on a rare Donaldson error, Kevin Kiermaier tripled to right-center, putting Tampa Bay up by four. Two batters later, Brad Miller homered to right off Ryan Tepera, making it 8-2.

After Danny Farquhar put up a scoreless sixth in relief of Cobb, Kevin Jepsen did the same in the seventh. Eddie Gamboa, making his big league debut, loaded the bases on a single and two walks, however, Brad Boxberger limited the damage to just one run by collecting an RBI groundout and a strikeout, ending the inning with the Rays up by five. Finally, Ryan Garton worked a perfect ninth.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (4-7, 3.56 ERA) will take the mound opposite of Marco Estrada (8-6, 3.37 ERA) this afternoon. Snell’s shortest big league start came on August 10th against the Blue Jays in Toronto, when he posted just 1-2/3 innings of work, allowing five runs and walking four, including the last three batters he faced. Estrada was 2-2 with a 3.37 ERA in five August starts. He is 1-2 with a 1.24 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay. You can read more about Snell in our series preview.

Rays 9/3/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 1B
Duffy SS
Morrison DH
Franklin RF
Dickerson LF
Wilson C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Cobb told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he felt good and was most pleased about getting in the flow of the game, while not thinking about mechanics, his elbow, etc.

 

The New What Next: Rays vs Rangers — a series preview

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On Wednesday, Evan Longoria became the Rays leader with 1,236 games played, surpassing Carl Crawford. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Wednesday, Evan Longoria became the Rays leader with 1,236 games played, surpassing Carl Crawford. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their 10-game home stand on Friday, with the first game of a three game set against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

The Rays enter the series with a lot of momentum after winning four straight, and scoring a franchise-record 35 runs over a three-game span to finish a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres. The Rangers, likewise, are coming off their own three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics, and have won nine of 12 entering the series.

Brad Miller has been a big part of Tampa Bay’s win streak, mashing three home runs in his last seven at-bats. The first baseman has hit 19 homers since June 17, matching the most in baseball in that span. He’s also been productive at home where 19 of his 25 home runs have been hit. Miller already set the Major League record for the most long-balls by a left-handed batter playing primarily at shortstop, as well as the franchise record for homers by a shortstop.

I think I’m picking the right pitch to swing at, Miller said after Wednesday’s contest with San Diego. When you do that, you can’t miss them, because you might only get one per at-bat. That’s all I’m trying to do is hit the one pitch I get per at-bat.

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While their 72-50 record sets the Rangers apart from the lowly Rays, when you dig a little deeper, you’ll come to the the conclusion that both teams are pretty evenly keeled — luck is one of the separating factors between the two. Compare their Pythagorean Expectations, for example. Texas should be 62-60, while Tampa Bay should be 57-62. And with a 61-58 BaseRuns record, the Rays are actually outperforming their counterparts by four games in the loss column (60-62). To put it another way, this season Tampa Bay has scored the same number of runs as the Yankees (498), and have allowed 18 fewer runs. However, the good guys are 10-½ games behind New York in the AL East and 19 games under .500, while the Yankees are two games over .500 and 7-½ back of first.

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Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will depend upon starters Matt Andriese (6-4, 3.36 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA), and Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85 ERA). Jeff Banister will counter with Cole Hamels (12-4, 2.88 ERA), A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA), and Martín Pérez (8-8, 4.09 ERA).

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Rays Series Starters

Andriese fanned eight but surrendered six earned runs on eight hits over five innings of an 8-4 loss on Saturday. The righty allowed four homers in one game after having allowed just three all season. He, however, also recorded a season high in strikeouts and fired 56 of 76 pitches for strikes (13 whiffs overall).

Odorizzi has been fire since the All-Star Break. In his six starts since, the righty is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA. He is 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.

Smyly dominated the Padres on Monday, allowing just one run over seven innings. He gave up only one hit, walked a pair, and struck out four. Smyly allowed a one out, first-inning homer to Alexei Ramirez and then held San Diego hitless for the next six. Even though Smyly’s had his share of misfortune this season, he has allowed just eight total runs in his last five starts.

Rangers Series Starters

Hamels allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings on Monday against the Rockies. The tough lefty did enough to keep Texas in the game, and the Rangers eventually won late. Hamels coaxed 20 swinging strikes on 115 pitches, although he wasn’t the most efficient hurler, throwing just 12-of-24 first-pitch strikes. Still, Hamels hasn’t allowed more than three runs since July 8 against the Twins — a five start stretch, allowing him to drop his ERA from 3.21 to 2.89. Key matchups: Matt Duffy (3-6, 3 RBI), Logan Forsythe (2-3, 2 2B, RBI), Logan Morrison (11-28, 4 2B, 2 RBI, 5 BB)

Griffin posted at least six innings for the first time in his last 11 starts against Detroit on Sunday, although he was tagged for six runs and a season-high 11 hits. He now has a 6.69 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing a homer in 10 straight outings. Griffin has relied upon an 89 mph four seam fastball with good “rising action,” and an 84 mph cutter this season, while also mixing in a 67 mph curveball with excellent bite, and an 82 mph changeup with a ton of backspin. Key matchups: Nick Franklin (1-3, 2B), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI)

Pérez held Oakland to two runs (one earned) on five hits on Monday, with one walk and six strikeouts over seven innings. The southpaw settled in after allowing a run in each of the first two innings, and was rewarded with his first win in nine starts. Be that as it may, he still has just one road win in 2016; something that may bode well for the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on a 94 mph worm killer of a sinker, while also mixing in a 94 mph four seam fastball, a hard 85 mph circle change grip, an 86 mph slider, and an 81 mph 12-6 curveball. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Evan Longoria (4-7, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Brad Miller (4-10, 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller is 8-20 with five homers and nine RBI in his last five games.

— Carlos Beltran is hitting .315 with two home runs and eight RBI in 15 games since being traded from the New York Yankees; he went 6-13 in the series with Oakland.

— The teams have not played one another in 2016, and will finish the season with a three-game set in Texas. They’ve split 40 meetings since 2011.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

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Jake Odorizzi gets the start in Monday's series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Jake Odorizzi gets the start in Monday’s series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays may be last in the American League East, and second-to-last in the AL, but they have won six of of their last 10 games against the Blue Jays this season, including a three-game sweep in mid-May. They’ll take that success into Toronto where they’ll take on the second best team in the AL East, starting Monday.

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Tampa Bay lost 6-3 Sunday in the series finale against the Minnesota Twins, completing a 6-4 homestand that included a three-game sweep of the Evil Empire.

In spite of their 45-65 overall record (50-60 Pythagorean Expectation, 55-55 BaseRuns), they are 11-11 since the All -Star break, and have been pitching well — allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of their past 13 games.

The Blue Jays are returning from a 4-3 road trip against the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals without much, if any, offensive production. Toronto was outscored 19-17 over the seven games and batted .138 with runners in scoring position.

They haven’t scored more than four runs in a game since July 30 when they plated nine against the Baltimore Orioles, who have one-game lead over the Blue Jays (63-49) in the AL East.

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Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA), Drew Smyly (3-11, 5.14 ERA), and Blake Snell (3-4, 2.95 ERA) over the next three days. John Gibbons will counter with RA Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA), Marco Estrada (7-4, 2.92 ERA), and JA Happ (15-3, 3.09 ERA).

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Rays Series Starters

Odorizzi posted a six inning shutout against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out six. That makes three consecutive scoreless outings for the righty, and he’s gone at least six frames each time.

Smyly pitched seven quality innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Thursday, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out 10. After a rough first half of the season, the southpaw appears to have turned a corner. He’s now collected three straight quality starts for the first time since April, and his 5.14 ERA — although still bloated — is down to its lowest mark since June 20.

Snell turned in another solid outing on Friday, striking out seven while giving up just one earned run on four hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings. The southpaw threw 97 pitches by the sixth, leading to his early exit, however, Snell was still impressive — inducing 12 swinging strikes and putting together a fifth straight start with no more than two earned runs allowed. He also didn’t allow a homer for the fourth time in his last five turns, giving up just two over 55 innings this season.

Blue Jays Series Starters

Dickey gave up just one run on six hits over seven innings in a win on Tuesday against the Astros. The knuckleballer struck out five. Dickey snapped a three-game losing skid with his outing, his first quality start since July 10 against the Royals. Dickey had full control over his repertoire and didn’t walk a batter. Free passes were a huge problem over his losing streak, as he walked nine batters and hit three more in just 14-2/3 innings. He is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, and 8-9 with a 4.33 ERA against the Rays overall. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-6, 2 2B, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (6-23, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (14-49, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-11, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Estrada held the Astros to four hits and a single run over seven strong innings on Wednesday. He struck out seven. Even though he’s been effective overall, July was his worst month of the season (4.24 ERA), and he hadn’t allowed fewer than two runs in an outing since May 30. Estrada is fifth among all big league starters in WHIP at 0.99, outperforming Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. The fastball/curveball/changeup/cutter throwing righty is 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA over three starts (and 31-1/3 innings) against the Rays. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-3, RBI), Logan Forsythe (3-8, 2B)

Happ fanned six over six innings Thursday in Houston, surrendering just one run on four hits and a walk en route to a 4-1 win. Happ’s become unbeatable in his age 33 season — Toronto hasn’t lost one of his starts since June 6, earning a win in nine of his 10 outings over that span. He’s been really good of late, allowing one run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Be that as it may, Happ is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, and 2-3 with a 5.37 ERA overall against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (4-10, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (5-19, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (10-26, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (2-3), Steven Souza Jr. (5-11, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI)