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Tampa Bay Rays Spring Training, day six

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Next stop: Full squad workouts on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The last day of pitcher-catcher workouts is in the books. With the arrivals of outfielders Tommy Pham and Jesus Sanchez, shortstop Jesus Sanchez and Yandy Diaz, the Tampa Bay Rays have all 66 players in camp before the first full-squad workout Monday morning. All of the players participated in administrative activities, including photo day on Sunday.

Photo day included some fun and posed shots. Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough reportedly did a bit where he maneuvered an Oreo from his forehead to his mouth without using his hands.

Hidden talent I didn’t know I had.

— Ryan Yarbrough
https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1097190088000323584
https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1097229839386451968

Diaz, who was acquired from Cleveland in the Jake Bauers trade, made the biggest splash along with, in Marc Topkin’s (Tampa Bay Times) words, his well-muscled arms.

Wow! I was just talking to a couple guys about that. How is he that big?

— Willy Adames

Diaz said through team translator Manny Navarro that he is excited to be in Tampa Bay after being traded from Cleveland.

I feel happy since I’m going to have more opportunities here to showcase my talent and I’m happy to be here and help the team in whatever way I can.

— Yandy Diaz

Diaz is slated to platoon first base with either Brandon Lowe or Ji-Man Choi, although he can also could play third base or in the outfield.

Last year I played a good amount of first base and I felt comfortable. This year, I’m going to focus more on my defense and play the entire time at first base.

— Yandy Diaz

Several pitchers did throw bullpens, including Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, and relief pitcher Emilio Pagan.

Rays manager Kevin Cash was again impressed with Pagan’s bullpen session, as well as those by side-arming southpaws Adam Kolarek and Hoby Milner.

Reliever Ian Gibaut said an MRI exam on a right lat strain showed “everything was intact.” Gibaut is not expected to throw for the next few days, and there is no timetable yet. Cash said they will know more after a specialist looks at the results.

The New What Next

The first full-squad workout starts on Monday morning at 11:00 a.m. and lasts 2-2½ hours at the Charlotte Sports Park. The day starts with the first live batting practice sessions of camp.

Tampa Bay Rays Spring Training, day four

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Daniel Robertson (pictured), Brandon Lowe, and Kevin Kiermaier arrived at camp on Thursday and Friday (respectively). (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Daniel Robertson, Brandon Lowe, and Kevin Kiermaier arrived in Tampa Bay Rays camp on Thursday and Friday (respectively), as 61 of 66 players are now present. Still to arrive are Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Lucius Fox, Tommy Pham, and Jesus Sanchez.

Meanwhile, Ryne Stanek, Austin Pruitt, Oliver Drake, and Ian Gibaut threw their regularly scheduled bullpen sessions on the fourth day of Spring Training.

Kiermaier, who entered camp even more in shape than usual, was eager to get on the field.

Last year, we look at it, it was a broken year for KK in the fact that it’s not easy to come out of spring training, get banged up, miss time, try to re-start everything. It was like he was playing catchup, swimming uphill the entire time.

— Rays manager Kevin Cash

Last season, Kiermaier tore a right thumb ligament in what was called freak injury — his third in as many years

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, the challenge for the team is keeping him there.

We’re a different team when KK is on the field. When he’s not, we miss him. Obviously, our defense is different. Our offense, when he’s going right, he’s got the ability to really ignite us.

— Kevin Cash

Robertson arrived yesterday but spoke with the media this morning. The utility player was one of the more consistent position players last season before he missed the final two months of 2018 with a thumb injury.

Before his injury, Robertson was arguably Tampa Bay’s most consistent position player last year. The infielder reportedly had no issues or limitations during the offseason and is excited to get back on the field.

Obviously the injury was a bummer but I got a solid foundation and feel I’m even more equipped for this year. Just got to stay healthy.

— Daniel Robertson

Cash will look at Lowe and Ji-Man Choi, both southpaw swingers, to see who will pair best with Yandy Diaz at first base. The Rays skipper expects the infielder/outfielder to be a quick study based on the athleticism he exhibited last season.

We’ve got to give him a little bit of time to work on the little nuances, the footwork and stuff like that.

— Kevin Cash

Because of it, Lowe prepared to play on the right side of the infield (first and second base) as well as both corner outfield spots. He ordered his own first baseman glove, sought advice from Justin Smoak — who shares the same representation — and studied the fundamentals of playing at first.

Lowe, who last played first base in youth baseball, welcomed the opportunity to expand on his expertise.

If it gets me on the field and it gets me at-bats, I’m all for it.

— Brandon Lowe

Chaz Roe, who had been delayed after suffering through a tweaked back, played catch and is expected to start throwing with the other pitchers soon.

No concern whatsoever.


— Kevin Cash

40 Rays players arrive to camp early on Monday

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Joey Wendle was one of 40 Rays’ players to arrive at camp early. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Monday, 40 Tampa Bay Rays’ players arrived at camp in Port Charlotte — two days before the first official workout of Spring Training. Among those who arrived early were catchers Mike Zunino and Michael Perez; infielders Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Matt Duffy; outfielder Avisail Garcia; and pitchers Brent Honeywell Jr., Jalen Beeks, Colin Poche, and Tyler Cloyd.

Both Wendle and Duffy bulked up over the offseason. Duffy added 23 pounds to increase his strength and flexibility, while Wendle told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) this is nothing unusual — the utility infielder typically comes in a little heavier and stronger and then loses weight as the season progresses.

After being sidelined from late August to the end of the season with a severe left hamstring strain, Perez said he is ready to go, “100 percent.” The catcher is slated to platoon with Zunino, who reportedly looks like former Ray Brad Miller and put on quite the show in batting practice.

Garcia took some swings in the batting cage. He “is bigger and more muscular up close than you think,” writes Topkin.

Cloyd, a late acquisition by the Rays, showed up on Monday. The 31-year-old right-hander has big-league experience with the Phillies (2012-13), Mariners (2017) and Marlins (2018). Cloyd posted a solid 3.78 K/BB ratio across 85-1/3 innings with Triple-A New Orleans in 2018. He, however, has a susceptibility to the long ball which he paired with a low strand rate and a 5.17 ERA overall with the Marlins’ top affiliate.

(Photo Credit: Marc Topkin)

Honeywell added the Jr. to his jersey in honor of his father, Brent Lee Honeywell, who was a minor league hurler.

Not many people can have Jr. on the back of their jersey, Honeywell said. This is a gift my dad gave me — he taught me how to pitch growing up. It adds some flair. I’m not really a flashy person. All the good ones did it, like Griffey.

Noteworthiness

— Soft announcement: X-Rays Spex will be partnering with our buddies, Golden Dinosaurs Vegan Deli, on March 23rd — the weekend before Rays Opening Day — for the release of our newest shirt titled “Oh Boston, Up Yours.” The shirts will be available for sale (and preorder pickup) then, and you can expect some great raffle prizes among other things.

Pencil it in, more information is to come.

Rays close to inking new TV deal, albeit a smaller one than expected

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Rays season ticket holders enter the playing field at the Trop on Saturday for the annual, and wildly popular, Rays Fan Fest. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote on Sunday that the Tampa Bay Rays are finally set to sign a long-awaited new local TV deal. Yet while there will be an increase in revenues from the $30-million they made in 2018 — which was among the worst in Major League Baseball — it will not be nearly as much as the team had hoped. The culprit? A sports industry-wide drop in rights fees as fallout from cord-cutting and other issues, or that some of their competitors got previously, writes Topkin.

The deal will be “well, well, well under” the $82-million annual average over 15 years that we wrote about last year. Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg declined to reveal what the exact number is, or how much it could boost payroll or help pay for a new stadium, writes Topkin.

It’s going to be an increase of where we are, Sternberg said, estimating the new deal would rank about 20th in the majors. Much of the reason we’ve spent all that we have is because we knew we had some more revenue (coming) off of TV. Unfortunately, it’s going to fall reasonably short of what we anticipated four years ago.

However, as I wrote previously, there is a reason to pump the brakes on the payroll boost/new stadium point of view.

As Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium, WTSP News) wrote sometime back, the Rays always knew that money was coming. That is, while the team will have new revenue pouring in, it’s plausible that the “new” money will have been budgeted already.

Its likely not “new” revenue that the team is all of a sudden going to commit to payroll or a new stadium; they are revenues the team was already budgeting.

The deal could help the effort to get a new stadium built in the area, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred suggested last week.

It’s an improvement in their revenue stream and that’s always a positive, Manfred said. And I also think it’s reflective of the fact that the Tampa region is a major-league market and we ought to be able to find a way, with the help of the local officials, to make it work there.

As it stands now, the team and Fox worked out a placeholder deal for the 2019 season with hopes that the new pact will be signed, sealed, and delivered sometime during the upcoming season.

Noteworthiness

— Over 11,000 fans attended Rays Fan Fest on Saturday, helping the team to Raise more than $150-thousand for the Rays Baseball Foundation (up approximately $25-thousand over last year).

If you were walking throughout the stadium yesterday, you may have seen artistic renderings of the Left Field Ledge, which is currently under construction. If you didn’t, we’ve got you:

 

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Plans for the LF Ledge. #RaysFanFest2019

A post shared by X-Rays Spex (@xraysspex) on

— Per Topkin, the new LED stadium lights, that can be quickly turned on and off, will be an element in walk-off celebrations.

PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays should contend in 2019

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SS Willy Adames is projected to regress according to the 2019 PECOTA projections.

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2019 season. The Rays have been active this offseason, adding a bevy of new players to the fold, such as Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, and Charlie Morton. Because of the acquisitions, PECOTA forecasts Tampa Bay as the fifth best team in the American League, and the third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 86 wins against 76 losses. Should the Rays end the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Here are a few highlights, as the full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

Projected 2019 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 710 runs are fewer than they plated in 2018, yet three runs better than the Royals, who are projected to end the upcoming season 20 games under .500. The projected .246 BA/.319 OBP/.399 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .258 BA/.333 OBP/.406 SLG line collected by the team last season.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fourth fewest runs in the American League at 661 ― 25 fewer than the reigning World Series champions, and one more than the Yankees, Tampa Bay’s closest competitor in that category.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Matt Duffy spending the most time at third base, with Joey Wendle getting the majority of reps at second base, Yandy Diaz at first, and Willy Adames at shortstop. Ji-Man Choi could be the primary designated hitter (45% of the time) with Daniel Robertson also slated to see a significant amount of time at the position as well as all over the infield.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Mike Zunino will get the majority of playing time over Michael Perez (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Kevin Kiermaier is projected to post the highest position player WARp (2.9) in center, and could slash a .252 BA/.322 OBP/.414 SLG line with 14 home runs and 68 runs across 516 plate appearances. His projected WARp, however, is down from a projected 4.0 a season ago.
  • The ever consistent Matt Duffy is projected to be the best hitter on the team, just ahead of Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia, who looks to bounce back from a lackluster 2018 campaign.
  • Tommy Pham and Mike Zunino are projected to combine for 39 homers.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Blake Snell (165 IP, 3.3 WARp), Charlie Morton (148 IP, 2.5 WARp), Tyler Glasnow (130 IP, 2.1 WARp), with a casting call of “openers” ahead of Ryan Yarbrough (118 IP, 0.6 WARp), Jacon Faria (71 IP, 0.2 WARp), and Jalen Beeks (70 IP, 0.8 WARp) among others.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Jose Alvarado (closer), Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo (setup), Oliver Drake, Adam Kolarek, Hunter Wood, Emilio Pagan, Austin Pruitt, Ian Gibaut, Andrew Moore, and Colin Poche — in some variation of the Durham Taxi — as middle-relief.

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 20 runs above average — third best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (27.6 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -28.2 FRAA — worst in the American League.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays ended last season with 90 wins and 72 losses. Their projected 86 win season — 92 or 80, thanks to a six-game margin of error — has got to make us incredibly optimistic for a postseason run.