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TNWN: Rays look for a series sweep in the season finale

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John Curtiss allowed one run on three hits across 2/3 inning on Saturday.

Sunday marks the last day of the 60-game regular season, and with it, one of the strangest campaigns in baseball history. Aside from COVID-19 and the political strife that has made America a powder keg ready to explode, the Tampa Bay Rays have dealt with injuries, other teams literally throwing at their heads (side note: how the fuck has Aroldis Chapman not served his three-game suspension yet?!), an all left-handed-hitting lineup, 12 different players notching saves, an astronomically high strikeout rate in the month of September (31.3% K%), and a 14-5 record in one-run games which is tops in all of baseball. The Rays have already clinched the top seed in the American League playoffs. The only questions remaining are whether they will earn their 40th win, and consequently the mark of the Devil Ray — a .666 winning percentage (WP%) — and who they will play in the opening round. With a win, Tampa Bay would tie for the best 60-game mark at any point in any season in team history.

Tampa Bay enters play with a 39-20 (19 games over .500) record. They are guaranteed to finish with the best WP% in team history, exceeding the .599 mark by the 2008 “worst-to-first” pennant winners. Their current record extrapolates to a dominant 107-55 over a 162 game season. Meanwhile, 20 of the Rays 39 wins are of the come from behind variety, most in the American League. What’s more, Kevin Cash now has the best WP% of any manager in franchise history at .521, surpassing that one guy who managed the Cubs and now calls Anaheim his home. What was his name again? I don’t remember either.

The Rays will face the Blue Jays in the Wildcard round playoffs — starting Tuesday at Tropicana Field — if the Yankees beat Miami or Toronto loses to Baltimore. If the Blue Jays win and the Yankees lose, the Rays will then face New York.

As for Philadelphia, they need a win and some help to qualify for a postseason berth … albeit one with a sub .500 record. They also need Milwaukee and San Francisco to lose.

The New What Next

Josh Fleming (4-0, 3.42 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.06 ERA).

Josh Fleming, who was slated to pitch the bulk of the innings on Tuesday, entered the game after Ryan Thompson and got the final out of the third inning. He also allowed just a grounder in the fourth.

Even so, former Ray Guillermo Heredia battled back from an 0-2 count to earn a free pass, while Ramos hit a single to right on the next pitch, putting two on and moving a runner into scoring position. After Nimmo was hit by a pitch, consequently loading the bases, Jeff McNeil hit an infield RBI single that Willy Adames made a diving stop on, scoring Heredia and bringing the Mets within one. But, J.D. Davis lined to right on the very next pitch, keeping the Rays in front.

Fleming came out in the sixth and got the first two batters before Diego Castillo took over with Alonso, whom he quickly put away, stepping into the box.

After a rough start patch in September, Fleming has allowed just one run over 6-2/3 frames encompassing his last two trips to the mound.

Aaron Nola gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks over six innings on Thursday against Washington. He struck out six. It was Nola’s fourth quality start in his last six outings, a stretch during which he’s posted a 3.03 ERA and 3.85 K/BB across 38-2/3 innings. Nola relies primarily on an 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, a 79 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and some natural sinking action, and a groundball inducing 92 mph sinker with natural sinking action. Key Matchup: Hunter Renfroe (3-7, 2 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Phillies — a series preview

Rays 9/27/20 Starting Lineup

    null
  1. Wendle SS
  2. B Lowe DH
  3. Arozarena 2B
  4. N Lowe 1B
  5. Brosseau 3B
  6. Renfroe RF
  7. Phillips CF
  8. Margot LF
  9. Perez C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will rest some of the key relievers this afternoon. Nick Anderson threw in the first game of the series, while Diego Castillo and Pete Fairbanks threw yesterday. Aaron Slegers also worked three innings last night, and John Curtiss pitched the last two games. That leaves Oliver Drake, Aaron Loup, Ryan Sherriff, and Ryan Thompson as options.

— Good news on the with runners in scoring position (wRISP) front. Tampa Bay has had success in this series when it has mattered most, going 7-for-16 wRISP (.438 wRISP BA).

— Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz are expected to work out before the game. According to Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), the Rays have not decided if either or both will make the team’s playoff roster, as each is recovering from a hamstring injury. Rosters do not need to be finalized until Tuesday morning.

— Rays manager Kevin Cash set the pitching rotation in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. The team will go with Blake Snell in the first game, Tyler Glasnow in the second, and Charlie Morton in the third, if necessary.

Clinched!

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…When you bring your own party favors to the field.

On Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays clinched the AL East title for the first time since 2010 — and the third time in franchise history — behind an 8-5 victory over the New York Mets. The Rays aren’t done yet though, over the next three games they will attempt to lock up the number one seed in the American League.

Tampa Bay enters the last off-day of the regular season with a record of 37-20, 17 games over .500. They currently maintain the best record in the American League by two games over Minnesota with three games left to play. The Rays have lost just one of the team’s last 15 series.

Due to the pandemic, the Rays celebrated the accomplishment with another round of imaginary champagne, in a room covered in imaginary plastic given the COVID-19 protocols and restrictions.

Rays manager Kevin Cash acknowledged that the team is missing out on one of the best parts of winning, although he acknowledged the tradeoff involved.

I do think we all should recognize that these players are missing out, but we’re missing out like we said for good reason. And being respectful of the situation and not putting any of us at risk. We’re going to the postseason. We definitely don’t want a celebration or anything like that to derail all the accomplishments of the season.

— Kevin Cash

The Rays will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies into the Trop for a three-game series (the final set of the 2020 season), starting Friday. More on things later, it’s, well … getting late. Congratulations, guys!

TNWN: Rays look to cap the season finale against Baltimore with a win

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Charlie Morton earned a W last night even though things did not look good at the start.

After earning their fourth consecutive win against the Orioles on Saturday, 3-1, the Tampa Bay Rays look to do something rare and unusual this afternoon: sweep a five-game set.

At 35-18 on the season, the Rays enter play with the best record in the American League, while their magic number to clinch the division over the Yankees, who have won 10 straight, is down to four with seven games left to play. According to FanGraphs, the Rays have a 96% chance of winning the division.

Charlie Morton got off to an inauspicious start Saturday — getting into a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the first inning — yet he limited the damage and battled his way to a win over Baltimore, allowing one run on five hits and two walks and two hit batters while striking out six across five innings of work on 94 pitches (61% strike rate, 26% SwStr%). For only the second time since returning from the Injured List on September 2, Morton was able to make it through five innings, surrendering a lone tally to pick up his first win since August 4. Morton’s final pitch count of 94 bodes well for his ability to throw without limitations in the postseason. Between a shoulder injury that cost him nearly three weeks and an uncharacteristic 4.64 ERA (albeit reduced from 5.13), the 2020 campaign has been somewhat disappointing for the right-hander, he could provide a significant boost to the Rays’ rotation if he’s able to peak heading into the postseason. He’ll get one last tuneup on Friday against Philadelphia.

He settled in and did a really nice job of competing, making pitches, and getting a feel for everything that he had. But most of all encouraged that we got him to that 95-pitch mark and throughout that the velocity stayed consistent.

— Kevin Cash
https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1307479334756798465?s=20

Meanwhile, Yoshi Tsutsugo and Randy Arozarena provided some thunder, both of which hit right-field blasts, accounting for all three of the Rays runs.

Ryan Thompson helped the Rays tie a big-league record yesterday. The right-hander earned his first major league save and became the 12th different Tampa Bay player to collect a save this season. That’s something only the Texas Rangers have accomplished, and that was in 1973. In that particular season, the Rangers went 59-103 and saw three different managers (Whitey Herzon, Del Wilber, and Billy Martin) in all.

Tampa Bay has leaned heavily on the ‘pen over the last four days. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, the pen worked 6-2/3 innings around Josh Fleming working as a bulk pitcher Wednesday, then 5-1/3 innings on Thursday in a doubleheader, and four more on Friday and Saturday.

Because of it, Ryan Yarbrough will get the start in the series finale against the Orioles, rather than pitch behind an opener as he did in his last outing.

The Rays are expected to get a roster boost, as Mike Zunino (oblique strain) is expected to be activated this afternoon. Zunino has been out since August 26th, a span of nearly four weeks.

He’s taken (batting practice), he’s faced some live pitching. It’s not the most ideal buildup, but that’s what’s at stake right now. With no (minor-league) games for him to go play in, but we feel he’s in a good spot and should be 100 percent good to go.

— Kevin Cash

With Zunino’s return, the Rays seem likely to drop a reliever (presumably Sean Gilmartin) and keep three catchers since Kevan Smith is out of options.

The New What Next

The season finale between the two ball clubs will pit Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 4.31 ERA) against fellow southpaw John Means (1-3, 5.63 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough took over with one out in the second and quickly went to work against the Nationals, working around a Carter Kieboom single and striking out two to get out of the frame unscathed. Even though Yarbrough went just 2-2/3 innings against the Nationals in his last start, the lefty posted 5-2/3 frames of one-run ball on this night, allowing five hits, and hitting a batter while striking out five. He threw 52 of 86 pitches for strikes (60% strike rate, 17% SwStr%). Yarbrough allowed just four hard-hit balls and kept the Nationals off-balance throughout the night.

Yarbrough’s biggest frame came in the fifth inning. After he allowed back-to-back hits with just a 2-0 lead, Victor Robles laid down a sacrifice bunt, moving the runners up to second and third. But Adam Eaton grounded to third with the infield in, and Trea Turner popped to first to end the threat.

Washington was able to get run off Yarbrough in the sixth inning when Juan Soto doubled then came around to score on a pair of groundouts. Even so, Yarbrough held the Nationals to 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. Yarbrough is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven games (two starts) against Baltimore.

John Means allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out four across six innings on Sunday against the Yankees. After posting shaky results to start the season, Means has settled into a groove over his past two outings, allowing one run over six innings in each appearance. While he was rewarded with the win his last time around, he had to settle for a no-decision Sunday as Baltimore mustered only one run. Means has had a rough time at home (9.00 ERA), allowing six of his homers at Camden Yards while giving up 16 runs in 16 innings. The right-hander relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball that has some added backspin, and an 85 mph changeup, while also mixing in a hard 87 mph slider and an 80 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement. Means is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in four games against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Michael Brosseau (4-9, 3 HR), Nate Lowe (1-3, HR), Kevan Smith (1-3, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview

Rays 9/20/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Margot CF
  2. Arozarena LF
  3. Tsutsugo 3B
  4. Smith DH
  5. Adames SS
  6. N. Lowe 1B
  7. Renfroe RF
  8. Zunino C
  9. Wendle 2B

Noteworthiness

— The possibility of a return for the playoffs for infielders Yandy Diaz and Ji-Man Choi, both sidelined with hamstring strains, is uncertain. Diaz has been out since September 1, while Choi was hurt on September 12. Both have taken swings off a tee and tossed balls in Port Charlotte, and on Sunday and Monday, they will take live batting practice on the field.

Yet both have to make a lot more progress to be ready for the postseason opener.

Taking BP is still a fairly long way away from actually being in a game. We’ll see where they’re at on Tuesday.

— Kevin Cash

— Jose Alvarado, who started throwing off the mound in Port Charlotte, is another option. The left-hander has been out since mid-August with a shoulder issue.

— As Marc Topkin writes, the Rays have some decisions to make by today. “By noon Sunday, the Rays and other teams must submit a list of the 40 players — 28 active, 12 from the injured list/alternate site camps — who will be eligible during the postseason. Because that group will enter a quarantine starting Tuesday in St. Petersburg for those local and the rest of the team after returning from New York after Wednesday’s game, changes can only be made due to “exceptional circumstances,” requiring league and player union approval. The Rays figure to go heavy with pitchers, including Edgar Garcia and Trevor Richards, who are on the 40-man roster. An interesting possibility is Brent Honeywell, who continues to progress in working back from his latest arm issues.”

TNWN: Rays vs. Nationals — a series preview, part two

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Kevan Smith accounted for 2/3 of the Rays offense on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After splitting a four-game series with the Red Sox, and an off-day on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays will slide into the home stretch of the season when they welcome the reigning World Series champs into the Trop for a two-game series starting Tuesday. The Nationals dropped three-of-four to Atlanta over the weekend.

The Rays enter play 13 games over .500, with a 3-1/2 game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, and with a magic number of 10 to clinch the division (six over several other teams to clinch a playoff spot).

The Rays’ offense showed signs of life against the Red Sox, averaging 5.5 runs per game (RPG) over the life of the four-game set. Even so, half of the 22 total runs scored came on Friday when they defeated Boston 11-1. Taking that particular contest out of the equation, Tampa Bay was fortunate to win a second game given that they averaged just 3.67 RPG over the other three games and allowed an average of 4.33 runs. Tampa Bay also left a lot of chicken on the bone, hitting just .219 with runners in scoring position (7-for-32 overall, 0-for-7 on Sunday), and plating just a pair of two-out runs.

Washington’s offense continues to outpace the Rays in some regards, at least over a small two-week sample size, yet the Nationals underperform Tampa Bay in others — namely ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and wRAA.

Offense notwithstanding, the Nationals’ hurlers continue to be a liability, maintaining an overall 5.72 ERA/6.02 FIP over the last two weeks, and a 5.08 ERA/5.05 FIP across the life of the 2020 season. Needless to say, opener John Curtiss, Ryan Yarbrough, and Josh Fleming — as well as the rest of the Rays’ bullpen — need to keep the team in the thick of things the next two days, while Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe, as well as the rest of the team, need to pounce on any of Washington’s mistakes. Lest we forget that the Nats’ pitching staff limited the Rays to four total runs a week ago, and limited them to 2-for-15 wRISP.

Pitching Probables

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash is expected to lean on Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 4.31 ERA) and Josh Fleming (3-0, 4.12 ERA). Dave Martinez will counter with Aníbal Sánchez (2-4, 6.34 ERA) and Austin Voth (0-5, 7.99 ERA).

John Curtiss will serve as the series opener Tuesday ahead of Ryan Yarbrough, who will in the bulk role. Curtiss hasn’t allowed an earned run over his past 10 innings of work and maintains a 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9 K/BB across 17-2/3 frames this season.

Ryan Yarbrough labored through 2-2/3 innings against the Nationals in his return from the Injured List on Tuesday. Yarbrough allowed four runs on six hits and a walk with just one strikeout on 70 total pitches (43 strikes, 61% strike rate, 16% SwStr%). He also hit a pair of batters. Yarbrough has a 4.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 2.7 K/BB over 39-2/3 innings on the season.

Aníbal Sánchez allowed three runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks across five innings against the Rays on Tuesday. The right-hander started out by surrendering just two singles and two walks through five shutout inning, although he was pulled after giving up two singles and hitting a batter to start the sixth inning; all three baserunners came around to score. Sanchez enters Monday’s contest with a 6.34 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and 2.5 K/BB across 38-1/3 innings. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-9, 2B, 3B), Manuel Margot (1-4)

Josh Fleming allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five across 4-1/3 innings on Thursday against Boston. The left-hander allowed a pair of home runs that sunk his battleship and accounted for all three of his earned runs. Even though he has yet to take a loss, Fleming has allowed seven earned runs on 13 hits across his last 9-1/3 innings of work (spanning two starts).

Austin Voth allowed three runs on two hits and two walks across 4-1/3 innings against Atlanta on Thursday. He struck out four. Things were looking good for Voth in the early parts of Thursday’s outing as the right-hander retired the first nine batters he faced, while the Nats staked him to a 5-0 lead. Unfortunately, Voth lost his command in the fourth when he walked two and allowed a two-run homer to Freddie Freeman. He struck out Nick Markakis to start the fifth inning but was pulled a batter later after he hit Tyler Flowers. The 28-year-old was charged with one more run when Ronald Acuna hit a two-run homer off reliever Wander Suero. The mainly three-pitch pitcher relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball and a 79 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, while also mixing in an 87 mph cutter which has some natural sink.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are expected to activate reliever Oliver Drake (biceps tendinitis) on Tuesday. Drake will take the roster spot of first baseman/designated hitter Ji-Man Choi, who strained his left hamstring Saturday.

TNWN: Rays look to cap the season series vs. Boston with a win

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Brandon Lowe hit one of two Rays’ home runs last night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After winning their second consecutive game over the Boston on Saturday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to close the season series against the Red Sox with a win this afternoon. At 30-16 on the season, Tampa Bay enters play as the first American League team to hit the 30-win mark. They maintain a 4-1/2 game lead over Toronto in the AL East and find themselves back to 14 games over .500.

Suffice it to say, if the Rays are going to win the AL East division title and make a deep run into October, they will be leaning on Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe, both of whom came up big last night.

In the first inning, with former Ray Nathan Eovaldi on the mound, Meadows turned on a 100 mph fastball on the black and sent it to deep right field.

While Meadows hasn’t hit his stride just yet, he entered Saturday’s contest with a .426 OPS across his last nine games and has collected a hit in each of his last three games, including three extra-base hits.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1304955945794048000?s=20

As for Lowe, after former Ray Christian Arroyo tied up the ball-game on a two-run seventh-inning homer in the top of the frame, Lowe crushed a 92 mph four-seam fastball in the home half of the inning, sending it 431 feet away and into the right-field stands.

Lowe entered Saturday hitting .148 over his last 18 games, including an 0-for-22 skid. He, however, made some adjustments and finds himself in the midst of a five-game hit streak, which includes a pair of homers.

Kevin Cash lauded Meadows and Lowe for putting in the work to get past their tough stretches.

They’ve had better at-bats, for sure. These guys are really, really determined. They get frustrated with themselves more than anything when things don’t go their way, but give them a ton of credit for kind of sticking through and putting the work in.

— Kevin Cash

The Rays skipper also talked about Lowe’s go-ahead blast following the game.

It was really impressive and very timely. It was nice that Brandon could get a pitch that he can handle and we answered right back. Brandon has had a tremendous season and I know he’s been scuffling a bit as of late, but he keeps at it and came up with just a huge hit today.

— Kevin Cash

Tampa Bay is now an MLB best 11-4 in one-run games, and have come from behind to win 16 times (an AL East best). The Rays now have a magic number of 11 to clinch the division over Toronto, and six over several teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Not everything that glitters is gold though, as Tampa Bay lost another player to the injury bug. Ji-Man Choi suffered a left hamstring strain in the fourth inning as he rounded third and headed home on Nate Lowe’s RBI single. Choi is expected to hit the Injured List today after undergoing an MRI.

I think it’s fair that he’s going to miss some time. It’s pretty unfortunate,. He’s such a big part of our team. It’s really unfortunate at this point. We’ll see what the doctors say, but that’s a tough one.

— Kevin Cash

Choi’s MRI should help determine the severity of the injury and if he’ll be able to return before the start of the postseason.

It doesn’t feel good right now. We’ll see what happens with the MRI tomorrow, but we’re just hoping for the best. …I believe in my team. Throughout this whole season, it has always been next man up and we have great depth. I also believe in my trainers. They help me a lot throughout the season.

— Ji-Man Choi

As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, “Tampa Bay could add a position player for Sunday and then make another move on Tuesday when it’s expected pitcher Oliver Drake (bicep tendinitis) will be activated. Tampa Bay is carrying 15 position players and 13 pitchers. After Monday’s off-day the Rays will play ten games in the next nine days.”

The New What Next

Charlie Morton (1-2, 4.94 ERA) will get the start in the season finale against Boston, pitching opposite of Martín Pérez (2-4, 4.40 ERA).

Charlie Morton got the start for Tampa Bay, and even though he allowed three runs on four hits and a walk over five innings of work, he took a big step forward in his second start off the Injured List. Morton — who went two-plus innings and threw 36 pitches in his last turn on the mound — worked five efficient innings on Monday. Morton threw 45 of 57 pitches for strikes (79% strike rate) and retired his final seven batters. The right-hander stymied Boston back on August 4, allowing just one run on five hits (including a solo home run) across 5-2/3 strong innings. Morton struck out five.

Martín Pérez coughed up four runs on five hits and six walks over five innings against the Phillies. He struck out two. The southpaw’s command was almost nonexistent in this one, as Pérez also uncorked a wild pitch and threw only 47 of his 86 pitches for strikes (55% strike rate). The southpaw maintains a 4.40 ERA and a 1.29 K/BB through 47 innings on the season. In his last start against the Rays, Pérez allowed two runs on three hits (including a home run) and two walks across 5-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Mike Brosseau (3-7, 2 2B, HR), Brandon Lowe (2-5), Kevan Smith (1-3, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview, part three

Rays 9/13/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Margot CF
  2. Arozarena LF
  3. Wendle 3B
  4. Brosseau 2B
  5. Renfroe RF
  6. N. Lowe 1B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Tsutsugo DH
  9. Smith C