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TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — one last series preview

September 24, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The cardiac kids scored six runs in the fourth inning of the series finale against the reigning World Series champions, on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After taking three of four from the reigning World Series champions, the playoff-contending Tampa Bay Rays are set to embark on the final home series of the season, a two-game set against the New York Yankees. The Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays.

Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games, while the Rays are better at home than the Yankees are on the road (47-31 vs. 45-31).

With five games left to play (two vs. New York, and three vs. Toronto), Tampa Bay enters the series 1-1/2 games behind Oakland for the top Wildcard and 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland for the final playoff spot.

Thanks to Monday’s win, the Rays chances of a postseason berth are 65.1% according to FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 60.5% chance.

Suffice it to say, this is an incredibly important series against an opponent Tampa Bay has not fared well against. Yet, even though the Rays have gone just 5-12 against the Yankees this season, they have gone 3-4 against them at home. Is that great? Clearly not. BUT, that is far better than their 2-8 record at Yankee Stadium.

It will not be easy for the Rays, who currently hold their own destiny. The Yankees already saw the returns of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit, while Edwin Encarnacion is expected to return this week. Even without the “big boppers,” the Evil Empire has been mightily productive this season.

Still, Tampa Bay has won 14 of the last 20 games while New York is one game off that pace. And while the Yankees have plated 126 runs in the month of September, which is a formidable total to be sure, the Rays have been no slackers, scoring just 15 runs fewer over the same span — 1.33 runs fewer per game (on average). Over that stretch, the Rays have faced a far more difficult schedule than the Yankees, who played just five games against plus .500 teams. The team has also been much better with runners in score position, hitting at least .300 in five of the last seven series. In doing so, they’ve performed to a combined .330 wOBA and an above-average wRC+.

Tampa Bay has played some of its best baseball of late, and the Rays will need to continue to play at a high level heading into the final series of the season, in Toronto.

Pitching Probables

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will throw right-hander Yonny Chirinos (9-5, 3.67 ERA), and team co-MVP Charlie Morton (15-6, 3.15 ERA). Aaron Boone is expected to counter with a bullpen day in the series opener, and Masahiro Tanaka (11-8, 4.47 ERA) in the series finale.

Yonny Chirinos will open for Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The right-hander returned from the IL over the weekend, making an appearance out of the bullpen Saturday against the Red Sox and allowing one run while striking out two batters across one inning. Chirinos will likely work longer Tuesday, although he will be on a pitch count as he slowly builds back up following his lengthy absence. Brendan McKay, who was originally slated to start Tuesday, is a candidate to piggyback Chirinos. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in five outings (three starts) against the Yankees this season.

Brendan McKay allowed three runs on three hits and a walk while striking out three across four innings on Wednesday. The southpaw allowed three runs on two hits and a walk in the second inning, but limited Los Angeles to just one other base runner in his four innings of work. The 23-year-old is 2-4 on the season with a 5.40 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP over 46-2/3 innings of work. In his last appearance against the Yankees, McKay allowed three runs on six hits (including a homer) over five innings. He fanned three.

Yankees Bullpen Day

Charlie Morton was sharp over the first six frames, allowing just three hits — two on the infield — and a walk over that stretch while striking out six. However, he surrendered a two-run homer to Mitch Moreland in the seventh inning before exiting the contest. Even so, Morton is 2-0 over his last four turns, allowing three runs or fewer in each outing. The right-hander owns a 3.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, with a 4.3 K/BB across 188-2/3 innings this season. Morton is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts (15-1/3 innings) against New York in 2019, but 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 16 starts (98-1/3 innings) at Tropicana Field this season.

Masahiro Tanaka gave up one earned run on four hits over seven innings against the Angels on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. Tanaka had given up eight runs over nine innings in two previous outings, but he bounced back with a sharp effort against Anaheim, allowing him to cruise to his 11th win of the season. Even so, the right-hander has had an erratic campaign overall, with a 4.47 ERA across 179 innings on the season. Be that as it may, Tanaka has been deadly against the Rays this season, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.59 ERA over four starts, and a 1-0 record with a 3.28 ERA in three starts at the Trop (13-1/3 innings of work). Key Matchups: Michael Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Ji-Man Choi (4-14, 2 2B, BB), Guillermo Heredia (1-4), Kevin Kiermaier (9-34, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Nate Lowe (1-3, HR, RBI), Austin Meadows (3-11, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Eric Sogard (3-8, 2B, HR, RBI), Joey Wendle (3-11, 2B, 2 RBI), Mike Zunino (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB)

TNWN: Rays vs Red Sox — one last series preview

September 20, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays return home on Friday, where they went 9-1 on their most recent homestand. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays will continue the push toward a postseason run on Friday when they open a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. After taking two-of-three from the Los Angeles Angels, the Rays split an Interleague meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ll try to avoid a setback against the slumping Red Sox, who are coming off a series loss to the San Francisco Giants.

With Oakland leading the pack in the AL Wildcard race, the second spot could come down to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, who enter play neck-and-neck for the final playoff spot. The Rays next six games will be against the Red Sox and Yankees, putting them in a situation where they’ll have to play their best ball of the season to ensure they’re still playing in October.

Tampa Bay recently dropped a couple of road games to the Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels which could come back to haunt them. Yet, there is hope as Cleveland is set to start a pair of tough Interleague series against the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. Whatever the case, the Rays still control their own destiny. They need to win as many games as possible, starting Friday.

The Rays enter the series with a “magic number” to clinch a Wildcard spot (by eliminating Cleveland) of 10 — the needed combination of Tampa Bay wins and Cleveland losses. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, don’t expect a playoff berth in this homestand. Even in a best-case, or worst case, scenario, it would take six more days, so until Wednesday, for that race to be decided. And that would be with one team winning all its games and the other losing all its game. Barring that extreme, and with the Indians off Monday and the Rays off Thursday, the more realistic scenario is this being settled — bottles popped or dreams shattered — in Toronto.

After their impressive 8-7 11-inning win over Los Angeles, Tampa Bay has a 54.5% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs (65.2% chance per Baseball Prospectus).

That’s marginally better than Cleveland, who averages out at 50.5% per FanGraphs (39.9% per Baseball Prospectus).

The Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and 9-6 in the season series against Boston. The Red Sox, who have been stunningly bad of late, are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, although they have won five of six games against Tampa Bay at the Trop.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (15-6, 3.16 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 2.03 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-4, 3.78 ERA), and Blake Snell (6-7, 4.19 ERA). Alex Cora is expected to counter with Rick Porcello (13-12, 5.77 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Saturday’s ballgame, Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 6.19 ERA), and Jhoulys Chacín (0-0, 0.00 ERA).

Charlie Morton limited the Angels to three runs on six hits and a walk while striking out four across six innings on Friday. Aside from a third-inning, two-run home run to Kole Calhoun, Morton turned in yet another quality start en route to his second consecutive 15-win season. This time around, the right-hander has 18 more strikeouts with a similar ERA compared to his previous campaign. Morton will take a 3.16 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 4.21 K/BB. This season Morton is 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox.

Rick Porcello allowed two runs on five hits with one walk across five innings against the Phillies on Sunday. He struck out and six. Porcello gave up yet another homer, but he broke his two-game streak of yielding at least six runs. Porcello has had a disappointing season, posting a 1.7 HR/9, which is tied for the highest in his career, and a 2.5 BB/9, his highest mark since his rookie season. He also maintains a 5.77 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts across 162-1/3 innings this year. Porcello is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three 2019 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-11, HR, RBI), Jesus Aguilar (2-3, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (6-15, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (3-6, HR, 3 RBI), Matt Duffy (9-24, RBI), Avisail Garcia (12-30, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (14-55, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Michael Perez (1-3, BB), Daniel Robertson (2-7), Joey Wendle (5-12, 2B, BB)

Tyler Glasnow didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, giving up two hits and a walk across three scoreless frames. He struck out five. Glasnow got stretched out to 51 pitches (29 strikes, 57% strike rate) in his second outing since returning from the IL, and looked much sharper in this one than he did last weekend against Toronto. Glasnow has a 3.33 K/BB across five innings in September, and the team will continue gradually ramp-up his workload as it tries to lock down a postseason spot. This season he is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox.

TBA

Ryan Yarbrough allowed six runs on 10 hits and two walks across five innings on Sunday, striking out just three batters. After allowing three runs in the first two innings, Yarbrough settled down before Albert Pujols crushed him with a three-run shot in the fifth. It was the southpaw’s first loss since June 13, which was also the last time he faced the Angels. He carries a 3.78 ERA into his start on Sunday. Yarbrough is 2-0 with a 4.80 ERA in three outings (one start) against Boston this season.

Nathan Eovaldi allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out six across four innings against the Giants on Tuesday. Eovaldi surrendered two solo homers and was sunk by a general lack of command. Most notably, the former Ray walked two of the first three batters he faced to begin the third inning, resulting in a three-run frame. He had pitched fairly well entering Tuesday’s ballgame, allowing only seven earned runs across his prior 16-1/3 innings of work, yet Eovaldi still owns an ugly 5.81 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 52-2/3 innings on the season. The Rays have faced Eovaldi twice in a relief role (1-2/3 innings), tagging the right-hander for three runs on six hits and a walk. Key Matchups: Micahel Brosseau (1-1), Ji-Man Choi (2-3, RBI), Travis d’Arnaud (3-9, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Guillermo Heredia (1-1), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Austin Meadows (1-1, 2B, RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (1-3, BB), Eric Sogard (3-8), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B)

Blake Snell was impressive on Tuesday, pitching two perfect innings while striking out four. Snell showed no rust from his nearly two-month absence after undergoing the knife, tossing 17 of 26 pitches for strikes (65% strike rate) and whiffing four of the six batters he faced. The outing was a great step for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner as Snell looks to build stamina in anticipation of a playoff run. The left-hander maintains a 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 21 starts this season. He’ll likely square off against the Red Sox on Monday, although he will likely be on a short leash.

Jhoulys Chacín allowed two hits and walked two while fanning three over 2-2/3 scoreless frames as an opener on Thursday against the Blue Jays. Chacin, who had not allowed a baserunner in his first two outings with the Red Sox, faced his first bit of adversity since yet avoided any damage. The veteran has thrown 5-2/3 scoreless innings for Boston. Over his career, Chacín is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three outings (one Start). Key Matchups: Avisail Garcia (2-3, 2B), Guillermo Heredia (1-3, RBI), Mike Zunino (2-4, 2B, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— As Marc Topkin also noted, the right players are hot at the right time:

Playoff-chasing and postseason games can produce the occasional unheralded star. But for the most part, teams at this time of year need their best players to be their best players. And the Rays are getting a lot of that, starting with Austin Meadows, who is hitting .407 with eight homers and 19 RBIs on a career-best 16-game hitting streak. Tommy Pham, who had five hits Wednesday, is hitting .351 since Sept. 1. Ji-Man Choi has become an on-base machine. Travis d’Arnaud continues to deliver clutch hits and runs. Willy Adames is hitting .300 over the past two-plus weeks and playing strong defense at short. Closer Emilio Pagan is pitching with confidence.
— Marc Topkin

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — one last home series preview

September 5, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Can Travis d’Arnaud keep up his offensive productivity when the Blue Jays come to town? (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After winning two consecutive series against Cleveland and Baltimore and going 5-1 on the current homestand, the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop for a four-game set, starting Thursday. The Blue Jays dropped both games of a two-game series against Atlanta, and seven of their last 10.

In spite of going 3-for-15 wRISP (.200 BA) and plating just nine runs total against the Orioles, Rays hitters have fared much better at the plate of late, slashing an overall .265 BA/.325 OBP/.454 SLG/.779 OPS line over the last 14 days, with a moderately powerful .189 ISO and an improved but not stellar 106 wRC+.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays seem to be going in the opposite direction, slashing a combined .213 BA/.287 OBP/.364 SLG/.651 OPS line, with a significantly below league average 72 wRC+ over the last 14 days.

Toronto’s pitching staff also hasn’t been great over the same stretch, posting an overall 3-9 record with a 4.17 ERA and a 4.64 FIP (starters: 1-5, 4.01 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, relievers: 2-4, 4.78 ERA and a 4.74 FIP).

The Rays should be able to limit the Blue Jays offense and tag the pitching staff with some runs.

After this series, Tampa Bay will embark on a pretty big road trip which will take them out west. Before they face the mighty Dodgers on the 17th and 18th — kicking off a stretch of eight consecutive games against plus .500 teams — the Rays will have an opportunity to pad the win column while also staying relevant in the AL Wildcard race. However, that doesn’t mean they should take this series for granted … after all, Toronto took two-of-three from Tampa Bay the last time the two teams met, at the beginning of August.

The Rays are 8-4 against the Blue Jays this season, and 4-2 at home.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Austin Pruitt (2-0, 4.78 ERA), Brendan McKay (2-3, 5.55 ERA), Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.06 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.49 ERA). Charlie Montoyo is expected to counter with Trent Thornton (4-9, 5.34 ERA), Clay Buchholz (1-3, 5.45 ERA), a hurler to be named before Saturday’s contest, and Jacob Waguespack (4-3, 3.97 ERA).

Austin Pruitt got the start against Cleveland on Friday because the Rays had used seven pitchers against Houston the day before. Contrary to his season numbers, “Cy” Pruitt set the tone with the best outing of his big league career. Pruitt surrendered four hits while striking out six across 5-1/3 scoreless frames. The right-hander threw 52 of 77 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) as well as 14 of 20 first-pitch strikes while coaxing 11 swinging strikes. He lowered his ERA by almost a full point — from 5.57 to 4.78 — and now carries a 1.27 WHIP and a 3.67 K/BB over 37-2/3 on the season. Color me surprised … I’ll take it.

Trent Thornton yielded four runs (three earned) on six hits while striking out six over five innings on Friday against Houston. Thornton gave up all four of his runs in the fifth inning, allowing a three-run blast before getting the hook. Even though he owns a 5.34 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, with 123 punchouts over 129-2/3 innings this season, the 25-year-old has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four consecutive outings. Be that as it may, Thornton is 0-1 with a whopping 11.12 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, HR, 2 RBI), Travis d’Arnaud (1-3), Matt Duffy (1-2), Avisail Garcia (4-6, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (3-6, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Austin Meadows (6-7, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Tommy Pham (1-4), Eric Sogard (1-2)

Brendan McKay was recalled by the Rays on Tuesday. The highly-touted prospect made his big league debut in late June although he hasn’t really established himself. He owns a 5.55 ERA in 35-2/3 big-league innings thus far, which led to an August demotion. However, the southpaw struck out eight and allowed just a hit and a walk across three scoreless frames in his last appearance with Triple-A Durham. McKay ripped through opposing hitters over 53 pitches, 39 of which were strikes (74% strike rate). He allowed three runs on six hits (including two home runs) and a walk across five innings in his last start against the Blue Jays.

Clay Buchholz allowed two runs on three hits and five walks with three strikeouts across 5-2/3 innings against the Astros on Saturday. It’s been a tough season for Buchholz, as he missed three months with a shoulder injury, yet he finally tallied the first win of his 2019 campaign. Buchholz also pitched well in his previous start, yielding just three hits. The right-hander owns a 3.08 ERA in two outings since his return from the shoulder ailment but is 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA, and a 1.35 WHIP, with 18 strikeouts in 36-1/3 innings this season. He is 9-8 with a 2.62 ERA in his career against the Rays, and 6-3 with a 1.87 ERA in 12 starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Ji-Man Choi (1-4), Austin Meadows (2-5, RBI), Tommy Pham (1-3), Eric Sogard (1-3, RBI, BB)

Charlie Morton gave up one earned run on four hits and three walks with eight strikeouts across 5-1/3 innings against Cleveland on Sunday. Morton guided the Rays to a huge series sweep against Cleveland after he got blasted by the Astros in his previous outing. Morton yielded an RBI double in the second inning and found himself in a bit of a jam, although he was able to escape and finish the rest of his outing cleanly. He needed 108 pitches to get through just 5-1/3 innings, which isn’t the height of efficiency, yet the bullpen got the job done over the balance of the game. Morton now sports a 3.06 ERA and a 4.18 K/BB ratio over 170-1/3 innings. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 2.31 ERA in two starts against Toronto this season.

TBA

Ryan Yarbrough got the start on Monday and battled over six innings, allowing four runs on nine hits while fanning four against Baltimore. Yarbrough cruised through the first five frames, but the Orioles dinged him up for four runs in the sixth inning on a homer, three singles, and a double. Still, the 27-year-old has put together a solid 2019 campaign, posting a 3.49 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, with a 7.29 K/BB across 121-1/3 innings.

Jacob Waguespack allowed four runs (two earned) on one hit with five walks and four strikeouts across four innings against Atlanta on Monday. While he gave up just one hit, it was a home run, while the walks just killed him. One of his five walks scored on the long ball, and two more Braves who reached with walks crossed the plate because of an error. Waguespack threw seven shutout innings two starts ago, but since he’s yielded five earned runs (nine total) in seven innings. He owns a 3.97 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts across 59 innings this season. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three outings (two starts) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (1-3), Ji-Man Choi (2-7, RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (2-5, 2B, 2 RBI), Avisail Garcia (1-3), Nate Lowe (1-3), Tommy Pham (2-7, 2B, RBI, BB), Eric Sogard (1-2)

Noteworthiness

— Enter Tommy Pham, the smoothie king:

From Sunday @TB_Times: https://t.co/O9xgHHQTDj pic.twitter.com/f2IiNqO8X9
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) September 4, 2019

— After all the chatter about whether or not Orioles pitchers were trying to hit Pham, one of their hurlers did hit a Ray, Eric Sogard, late in Tuesday’s game. Fortunately, the utility player is okay.

https://twitter.com/EricSogard/status/1169090744482697217

Rays look for a series win against Toronto on Wednesday; Jose Alvarado update

August 7, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

There’s something very cool about the light and shadow work on the roof of Tropicana Field. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After a thrilling 7-6, extra-inning win on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will go for a series win in the rubber match against the Blue Jays at Tropicana Field, on Wednesday. Tampa Bay hit a triplet of homers in the fourth inning, allowing them to erase a six-run deficit.

Down 6-0, Eric Sogard led off the fourth inning with a base hit to center before Avisail Garcia launched a 382 foot home run to left-field.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1158899234885685248

Then, Matt Duffy singled to left before Willy Adames hit a two-run, 375-foot homer to left-field.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1158899910801948672

Finally, with two outs in the frame, Travis d’Arnaud singled to deep right before Austin Meadows blasted a no-doubt 447-foot homer to right field, tying the game at six.

🔥TIE BALL GAME🔥@Raysbaseball outfielder @austin_meadows knocks the third 2️⃣-run homer of the inning😱😱#RaysUp 6#LetsGoBlueJays 6

Watch @RaysBaseball LIVE on FOX Sports Sun 📺 l FOX Sports Go.📱 pic.twitter.com/WjaY0uc2p9
— FOX Sports Florida & Sun (@FOXSportsFL) August 7, 2019

The game stayed knotted at six apiece until the bottom of the tenth inning. Meanwhile, the Rays bullpen behind Nick Anderson, who racked up two strikeouts; Emilio Pagan, who struck out the side after allowing two batters to reach on back-to-back one-out hits; and Diego Castillo worked in tandem to keep the Blue Jays off the board.

Pagan was particularly animated when he struck out Cavan Biggio on a 96 mph fastball above the zone, stranding a pair of runners in scoring position.

The Rays ultimately won the game on a tenth inning, bases-loaded wild pitch, going 0-8 wRISP along the way.

Butterfly stance or catchers stance, the 5-hole is open for business. #RaysUp pic.twitter.com/TXoUj8csM5
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) August 7, 2019

It was Tampa Bay’s third walk-off win of the season and just their extra-inning win (in nine chances) at home. It was the second time in franchise history the Rays won on a walk-off wild pitch, April 30, 2011, by Fernando Rodney, then of the Angels.

Tampa Bay enters play a half-game in front of Oakland for the final Wildcard spot and 1-1/2 games back of Cleveland for the top Wildcard spot. Tampa Bay and Oakland won yesterday, while Cleveland’s game was postponed due to inclement weather.

The New What Next

Brendan McKay (2-1, 4.38 ERA) will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of former Ray Wilmer Font (3-2, 4.91 ERA).

Brendan McKay allowed three runs on seven hits and one walk over 5-1/3 innings against the Red Sox on Thursday. He struck out seven. McKay got off to an inauspicious start by allowing three of the first four hitters to reach base, including a two-run homer. He settled down though and left with a lead for his second big-league win. McKay was rocked for six runs in his previous outing, so Thursday’s effort was a positive sign for Tampa Bay.

Wilmer Font threw 26 pitches (17 strikes, 65% strike rate) over two scoreless frames on Friday, so it’s likely he will be used as an opener as opposed to a traditional starter. Font has a 4.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 2.79 K/BB across 55 innings this season, and has given up four runs in 10 innings with Toronto. Key Matchups: Guillermo Heredia (1-1, RBI, BB), Mike Zunino (1-3)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview, part four

Rays 8/7/19 Starting Lineup

Choi 1B
Pham LF
Meadows RF
Garcia DH
Sogard 2B
Brosseau 3B
Kiermaier C
Zunino C
Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— In the first of back-to-back rehab outings by for Jose Alvarado, the left-hander pitched in the seventh inning of a Durham Bulls ballgame, needing 28 pitches (12 strikes, 43% strike rate) to get through the frame. Alvarado ranged between 95-99 mph on his fastball, although his command of the fastball and slider (which ranged from 89-91 mph) lacked consistency. He will pitch again tomorrow. If he can throw strikes, he will be recalled by the weekend. If not, Alvarado may need a little more time in Durham.

— Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, and Yandy Diaz took grounders yesterday, although it is not clear when they will start their respective rehab assignments.

— Anthony Banda (Tommy John surgery) threw four scoreless frames in Durham, allowing three hits while striking out one.

— Trevor Richards, in his first inning of work, since he was acquired from Miami, threw a scoreless inning, throwing 13 of 28 pitches for strikes (46% strike rate), allowing one hit and two walks, while fanning two.

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview, part four

August 5, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Charlie Morton will get the start in the series opener against the Blue Jays, on Monday.

After the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Marlins 7-2 on Sunday afternoon, completing a two-game sweep of Miami, they will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop for a three-game series. The Blue Jays are coming off a series split against the Orioles.

For the first time in franchise history, the Rays have scored six or more runs in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch, Tampa Bay has gone 6-1 and swept two consecutive series. They are a red-hot 8-2 in the last 10 games and have won three consecutive series.

The Rays offense has been very good of late, slashing a combined .333 BA/.417 OBP/.640 SLG/1.057 OPS line with a .307 ISO, a 179 wRC+, and a 21.5 wRAA over the last seven days. A caveat, however, they’ve been very lucky to the tune of an unsustainable .408 BABIP over that stretch. Be that as it may, Tampa Bay has done a good job of getting the important situational hits over the last four series (.300, .303, .290, .333 BA wRISP), during which the Rays took two-of-three from the Blue Jays.

Toronto has gotten toasty since the two clubs last met, winning five of seven games. It should be noted though, those five victories came against the dregs of the American League (the Royals and Orioles). Still, the Blue Jays played Tampa Bay very competitively three series ago, and more of the same can be expected this week.

The Rays are 7-2 against the Blue Jays this season, having outscored them 57-41.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.78 ERA), Ryan Yarbough (10-3, 4.01 ERA) in some capacity, and Brendan McKay (2-1, 4.38 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with Jacob Waguespack (2-1, 4.80 ERA), Trent Thornton (4-7, 5.23 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

Charlie Morton allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks across 4-2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Tuesday. He struck out two. Morton’s previous start was also against the Red Sox, and it’s clear that Boston’s hitters made some adjustments. Still, had Morton not been pulled two outs into the fifth inning, he would have been in line for the win. The right-hander is having a great season, as he is 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 165 strikeouts across 136 innings. Morton is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA in one start against the Blue Jays this season.

Jacob Waguespack allowed one run on three hits over six innings against the Royals on Tuesday. He struck out two and walked one. Waguespack completed six innings for the first time in six starts. The 25-year-old maintains a 4.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 2.67 K/BB over 30 innings this season. Waguespack is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in two games (one start) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (2-5, RBI), Travis d’Arnaud (2-5, 2B, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Austin Meadows (1-4, 3B, RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (2-4, 2B, RBI, BB)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed four runs on six hits over 4-1/3 relief innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday. He struck out three. Yarbrough served up as many homers as he generated swinging strikes (two) over 75 pitches (51 strikes, 68% strike rate) — but the Rays offense picked him up, allowing Yarbrough to earn his fifth straight win. It was the first time the left-hander allowed more than one run in an outing since June 13. He is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three games (11 innings) against the Blue Jays this season.

Trent Thornton hurled six innings on Wednesday and allowed one run on five hits and no walks while striking out two. Thornton was coming off a 10-day stint on the IL with right elbow inflammation but limited Baltimore to six baserunners on five singles and a hit batsman while tossing 58 of 87 pitches for strikes (67% strike rate). He was successful despite missing few bats — he induced just six swinging strikes. The quality start came after a pair of rough post-All-Star Break outings in which the rookie surrendered nine earned runs across 4-1/3 combined frames. Thornton is now 4-7 with a 5.23 ERA and a 2.27 K/BB over 105 innings this season. He is 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-4), Avisail Garcia (3-5, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Austin Meadows (4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Tommy Pham (1-4, BB)

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Jose Alvarado is scheduled to pitch in back-to-back games with Triple-A Durham on Tuesday and Wednesday. If all goes as planned, he will be activated from the IL this weekend on the road.

— Yandy Diaz (left foot bruise) ran on a treadmill Sunday, but there remains no timetable for his return.

— Brandon Lowe (right shin contusion) took ground balls before Sunday’s ballgame, the first time he has done so in several days. Lowe told reporters that a cortisone shot has greatly improved his rehab.

Hopefully, it keeps progressing and I’m back out there soon.
— Brandon Lowe