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Tampa Bay Rays 7/8/18 pregame notes and starting lineup

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The Rays can square up their current road trip with another win this afternoon. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to win a series on Sunday in New York after a 3-0 win over the Mets, behind Blake Snell, on Saturday. Tampa Bay has the opportunity to square up its current road trip, and can move back over .500 with a win.

Snell was outstanding once again, pitching 7-1/3 shutout innings on 112 pitches (70 strikes, 63% strike rate). He scattered six hits and walked three, but struck out nine and coaxed 10 ground balls — including a pair of double plays — to help him dodge a slew of early base runners. The southpaw lowered his overall ERA to a league leading 2.09 (3.36 FIP), yet more impressively he has allowed just two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 turns on the mound and is 4-0 with an 0.63 ERA over his last four outings.

If the eye popping numbers don’t scream All-Star, I’m not sure what does.

Snell spoke about the potential to pitch in the Mid Summer Classic, saying,

I’d be pumped, I’d be stoked.

After being held scoreless in 34 of their previous 36 innings, the Rays finally broke through with a crooked number yesterday. Even so, they still have gone 2-25 wRISP, while stranding a total of 18 base runners, over the first two games of the series against the Mets. What’s more, the 16-inning game against Miami is the only one where Tampa Bay has scored more than three runs. The Rays have not scored more than four runs in a nine inning road contest since May 30th (at Oakland, a 6-0 win). They hope to defy that trend this afternoon.

The New What Next

Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 3.92 ERA) will get the start, pitching opposite of Chris Flexen (0-1, 10.80 ERA).

Eovaldi threw six innings of two-run ball on Monday against the Marlins. Eovaldi allowed eight hits and walked one, while punching out five along the way. Eovaldi endured his share of baserunners in this outing, although he allowed just two extra-base hits and induced 11 groundball outs to limit the damage. The righty allowed a run on three hits in the second inning and another on a solo home run in the fifth. Things are looking up for Eovaldo, who’s thrown two consecutive quality starts, posting a 4.67 K/BB while allowing just two earned runs across 12 total innings of work.

Flexen will make his first start for New York this season, and 10th of his big league career. The right-hander allowed eight runs (four earned) over 3-1/3 relief innings for the Mets this season and is 4-6 with a mediocre 4.84 ERA in 67 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas. For the most part, he has relied on his 94 mph four-seam fastball, a hard 89 mph slider with short glove-side cut but little depth, and a 93 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 83 mph changeup, and a hard 82 mph curveball with little depth.

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Mets — an interleague series preview

Rays 7/8/18 Starting Lineup

Wendle LF
Duffy 3B
Bauers RF
Cron 1B
Robertson 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Sucre C
Eovaldi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Jake Faria made his first rehab start for the Charlotte Stone Crabs on Saturday, throwing 17 of 26 pitches for strikes in two innings of work, and allowing a run on two hits and a walk. The right-hander isn’t eligible to come off the DL until July 22nd.

— Christian Arroyo could play for the Stone Crabs on Monday although the team is not fully committed to that plan, according to Rays manager Kevin Cash.

— Click bait!

Rays to unveil Ybor City stadium renderings Tuesday

The New What Next: Rays vs Mets — an interleague series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t fared well since his return from the DL, slashing .163 BA/.250 OBP/.233 SLG/.483 OPS with 13 punch outs (28.9% K%). (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The scuffling New York Mets play host to the Tampa Bay Rays, as the pair open a three-game interleague series Friday night at Citi Field. The series marks the team’s first trek to Queens since the Rays called Citi Field home for three-games last season, in the wake of Hurricane Irma.

The Rays started their six-game road trip on a rather inauspicious note, dropping two of three games to the Miami Marlins. The Mets split a two-game set with Toronto.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay, again, has the opportunity to jump above the .500 mark with a series win. Furthermore, if playing competitive baseball is their raison d’être, then the Rays — who have gone 7-3 over over a 10-game stretch — need to use this series as a springboard to another one of their patented winning streaks leading up to the All-Star Break. New York has had the had the opposite success over its last 10 games, flailing to a 3-7 record.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-2, 1.98 ERA) to open the first game of the series, Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 3.92 ERA). Mickey Callaway will counter with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46 ERA), Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.84 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek saw his 12-appearance scoreless streak come to an end on Monday, in a relief loss to Miami. Still, the right-hander has a 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17-2/3 innings. Andrew Kittredge looks like the top candidate to cover the bulk of the innings behind Stanek, due to the heavy workloads that many of the Rays’ other long-relief options have assumed lately.

Steven Matz threw 5-1/3 innings on Sunday, allowing one unearned run on three hits and two walks while fanning six. The only run that scored was off an error by Matz. The southpaw lowered his season ERA to 3.46 alongside a respectable 3.62 K/BB. Even so, he has allowed six runs over his last 12 innings of work. This season Matz has relied primarily on his 94 mph sinker, while also mixing in a firm 84 mph changeup with slight armside fade and some natural sink, a 79 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and an 89 mph worm-killer slider. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6, 2 RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI)

Blake Snell allowed one run on four hits and a walk while striking out 10 over 7-1/3 innings on Sunday. Snell’s lone earned run came on a seventh inning solo shot off the bat of Evan Gattis giving Houston a one-run lead, but Tampa Bay struck back for two in the bottom half of the frame, setting Snell up for the win. In 18 starts this season, Snell sits with an outstanding 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 3/1 K/BB over 108-2/3 innings. His last start, in front of AJ Hinch, may have solidified Snell’s first All-Star nomination.

Jacob DeGrom allowed three runs on six hits and a walk over six innings on Sunday. He struck out eight. The right-hander cruised through five scoreless innings before allowing a two-run homer. A misplayed grounder gave deGrom his third, and final, earned run on the night. Despite delivering nine consecutive quality starts, deGrom somehow has a 2-4 record over that stretch. He is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA in one career start against Tampa Bay. This season deGrom has relied primarily on his 96 mph four-seam fastball and a 91 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph changeup, a 96 mph sinker and an 83 mph curveball. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-2, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-10, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2)

Nathan Eovaldi threw six innings of two-run ball on Monday against the Marlins. Eovaldi allowed eight hits and walked one, while punching out five along the way. Eovaldi endured his share of baserunners in this outing, although he allowed just two extra-base hits and induced 11 groundball outs to limit the damage. The righty allowed a run on three hits in the second inning and another on a solo home run in the fifth. Things are looking up for Eovaldo, who’s thrown two consecutive quality starts, posting a 4.67 K/BB while allowing just two earned runs across 12 total innings of work.

Noteworthiness

— Following the series finale with the Marlins, the Rays optioned RHP Ryan Weber back to Triple-A Durham. A countermove will be announced before the series opener with the Mets.

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins — an interleague series preview

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Mallex Smith’s first homer of the season solidified the Rays come-from-behind win against Astros on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays head south to Miami for the first three games of the annual Citrus Series matchup against the Marlins. The return visit at Tropicana Field is set right after the All-Star Break. The Rays are coming off an 8-1 home stand, having beat three playoff contending teams in the Yankees, Nationals, and Astros. The Marlins took two of three from the Mets this past weekend.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Both teams are having drastically different seasons, although they enter this series in a similar spot in their respective divisions. Tampa Bay enters the series 13-games out of first place in the AL East, and 11 out of the second Wildcard spot, while the Marlins are 15-½ games out in the NL East. Despite that, the Rays are entering one of the easiest stretches of play, with the next 16 games against the sub .500 Marlins, Mets, Tigers and Twins.

An easy stretch of play? Yes … albeit a crucial one for Tampa Bay, which has an opportunity to accumulate some tallies on the left side of the ledger. Baseball Prospectus gives the Rays a 5.6% chance of a playoff berth, odds that increase with each win. Granted they’ll need a lot of help along the way, and a postseason berth is far from an inevitability. But, they have an opportunity to play a role in their idealized outcome, and that is predicated on victories. Besides winning is fun, and so is watching the youth movement go to work.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash is projected to lean on Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 4.08 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 3.76 ERA), and the Rays ‘pen (19-19, 3.45 ERA). Don Mattingly will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (2-5, 6.14 ERA), Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.06 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi was incredible in his debut on May 30, dazzling with six no-hit innings. Yet the right-hander got knocked around prior to his last start, allowing eight homers over a four-game stretch. Nevertheless Eovaldi returned to form and earned the win against Washington on Tuesday after he allowed just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings, while recording nine strikeouts. The right-hander lowered his ERA to 4.08 (from 4.91) and has performed to a  0.82 WHIP with a 6/1 K/BB over 35-1/3 innings.

I definitely feel good about the way I’ve been pitching, Eovaldi told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times). I’ve kind of surprised myself with how I’ve been filling up the strike zone with all my pitches. I’m going to try to repeat that and incorporate the curveball more.

Eovaldi  spent parts of three seasons with the Marlins, going 13-27 with a 4.10 ERA in 63 starts.

It’s just another team, he said. Back when I made my first start against them, it had a little more meaning.

Wei Yin Chen was a tough-luck loser Wednesday after he allowed just one run on five hits and a walk over six innings against Arizona. He struck out five. Chen threw 60 of his 88 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) and allowed just one extra-base hit as he stifled the Diamondbacks for much of the evening. The Marlins’ bats couldn’t pick him up though — getting blanked into the bottom of the ninth. The southpaw has thrown a pair of quality starts in his last three outings, however, the results for the bulk of the year have been significantly worse. Over 55-2/3 innings, Chen has a 6.14 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 1.64 K/BB. He is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 21 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-3), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-13, 3B, HR, 2 RBI)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed one just earned run on seven hits and a walk over 6-1/3 innings of hard luck loss to Houston on Thursday. He struck out four. Yarbrough entered the game with two outs in the second inning and worked into and out of trouble for a considerable amount of his appearance. However, the southpaw managed to coax 10 groundballs and allowed only one extra-base hit — a home run to Jake Marisnick — which limited the damage. He also threw 62 of 95 pitches for strikes. It was a nice bounce back performance for Yarbrough, who allowed 15 earned runs over four of his last six outings.

Trevor Richards gave up three runs on six hits and two walks while fanning three batters over 4.0 innings against the Diamondbacks. Arizona got to Richards early, scratching all of their runs across over the first two frames. Even though Richards was BABIP’d, his command was shaky from the start, as 28 of his 75 pitches went for balls (37% ball rate). Overall, Richards was hot and cold in the month June, following up strong quality starts with subpar work. This season he has relied primarily on his 92 mph four-seam fastball and a whiffy 84 mph changeup swith ome natural sink to it, while also mixing in a hard 81 mph 12-6 curveball.

Neither the Rays nor the Marlins have named a starter for the series finale, on Wednesday. I will update things when a hurler is announced.

Noteworthiness

— Is Carlos Gomez finally turning things around? Gomez got two of the team’s eight hits on Sunday, his fourth multihit game in his past 13 games. He’s hitting .310 over that stretch.

— Part of the Rays recent spate of success comes courtesy of the pitching staff, which has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight games, a club record. Their ERA during their nine-game homestand was 1.39.

— Sunday was the 36th one-run game for Tampa Bay this season, out of 83 (43.3% of their games). They, however, improved to 16-20 in one-run games.

The New What Next: Rays vs Nationals — an Interleague series preview

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The Rays travel from one Washington (pictured: SafeCo Field in Seattle) to another, where they’ll face the Washington Nationals, starting Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Rickie Dixon)

The Tampa Bay Rays travel from one Washington to the other, where they are set to start a brief, two-game Interleague series with the Nationals on Tuesday night. Tampa Bay followed a five game win streak by dropping four in a row — including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mariners — while Washington dropped three of four to Atlanta after winning six straight against the Marlins and Orioles (respectively).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Expect a low scoring series. Neither team has been the definition of “offensive juggernaut” this season, with the Rays playing to a .558 winning percentage, by way of BaseRuns, thanks to a +30 run differential, while the Nationals have been moderately better via the same metric, playing to a .601 WP% thanks to a +52 run differential.

The similarities between the two are even more glaring when you look at what Tampa Bay and Washington has done in the batter’s box of late, with the Rays eking out just a touch more offensive production over the past two weeks.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

What’s more, both pitching staffs have been incredibly stingy the last two weeks, with the Rays’ hurlers performing to a combined 2.31 ERA/3.13 FIP (starters 2.22 ERA/2.13 FIP, relievers 2.36 ERA/3.79 FIP) over that span. The Nationals’ pitching staff has also been impressive, performing to a combined 2.12 ERA/3.04 FIP (starters 2.69 ERA/3.00 FIP, relievers 1.13 ERA/3.12 FIP) over the last 14 days.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Rays bullpen, while friend of the Rays Dave Martinez will counter with Max Scherzer (9-1, 1.92 ERA) and Tanner Roark (2-6, 3.61 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi spent last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, then missed the first two months after having arthroscopic surgery for loose bodies in his pitching elbow. Yet at long last, the flame throwing righty made his highly anticipated return to the mound and did not disappoint. After he walked the second batter of the game, Matt Olson, with one out in the first, Eovaldi went to work and retired the next 17 batters in order.

Eovaldi relied primarily on his upper 90’s fastball (topping out at 98 mph), and worked quickly and efficiently on the mound, needing just 70 pitches (46 strikes, 66% strike ratio, 32 fastball) to burn through the Athletics’ lineup. He lived at the top of the zone, and just off the plate, but brought his fastball back over the black occasionally. He also leaned on his splitter (14 thrown, eight strikes, three whiffs) and slider (nine thrown, five strikes, one whiff) when he needed a punch out, and his cutter to coax weak contact (seven ground ball and fly ball outs).

Sure, he got some help from the fielders behind him — Johnny Field made a sliding catch in the third and then a leaping grab on Matt Joyce to end the frame, Carlos Gomez made a diving catch on Pinder’s liner in the sixth — but the fact that he was able to limit hard contact speaks volumes.

Max Scherzer picked up his ninth win of the season on Wednesday, scattering two hits and a walk over eight scoreless frames while fanning 12. Scherzer took out his frustrations, from a poor start two turns ago, on an overmatched Orioles’ lineup that didn’t get a runner into scoring position until Manny Machado hit a one-out double in the seventh inning. The 33 year-old right-hander has now struck out double-digit batters in eight of 12 starts this season, carrying a 1.92 ERA into his start on Tuesday. This season Scherzer he has relied primarily on his whiffy 95 mph four-seam fastball with slight armside run, while also mixing in an 84 mph changeup that dives down and out of the zone, a whiffy 86 mph slider boasting two-plane movement, an 89 mph cutter that has some natural sink, and a 79 mph curveball. He is 4-2 with a 2.91 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3, RBI), Matt Duffy (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-2), Mallex Smith (2-4)

The Rays have not yet announced a starter for Wednesday’s bullpen day. I will update this when one becomes apparent.

Tanner Roark allowed two runs on two hits in a loss on Sunday against Atlanta. Roark entered the game in the ninth with the score tied at two, yet allowed two hits that would cost Washington — a double to Dansby Swanson, followed by a walkoff home run to Charlie Culberson. Roark, in spite of that out of the ordinary relief appearance, has taken a loss in each of his last two appearances. His 2-6 record is misleading, as the 31 year-old sits with decent peripherals, and has demonstrated the ability to work deeply into games, pitching six or more innings across all but one of his 12 turns this season. This season Roark has relied primarily on his 92 mph sinker using a two-seam fastball grip, while also mixing in a 92 mph four-seam fastball, a 75 mph curveball with exceptional bite and slight glove-side movement, an 85 mph slider, and an 84 mph changeup with a ton of backspin and some armside run. In spite of an opposing .289 BA/.319 OBP/.356 SLG/.675 OPS line from Tampa Bay, Roark is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one lone start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Christian Arroyo (1-2, 2B), Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (2-3), Brad Miller (3-3, 2B)

The New What Next: Rays vs Braves — an interleague series preview

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Under the big top, where the Rays will face the Braves in a two-game Interleague Series starting Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays will cap a five-game home stand by playing host to the Atlanta Braves in a two-game interleague series starting Tuesday. Despite falling 2-1 in the finale against Toronto on Sunday, the Rays took two of three from Jays, and are 11-4 over their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Braves are coming off a series sweep at the hands of Evan Longoria and the San Francisco Giants, and are 8-7 over their last 15.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays are swinging the bats well, currently averaging 4.44 runs per game thanks in large part to, C.J. Cron, who’s reached base safely in 13 consecutive games. Over that span Cron has accrued 13 RBI, and is now hitting .256 with seven home runs and 20 RBI on the season. Then there’s Wilson Ramos, who’s hit safely in 14 consecutive games — including nine extra base hits (four homers, five doubles) — and driven in 15 RBI.

The offense for the first place Braves (19-14) has played a large role in the team’s strong start, and is now averaging 5.48 runs per game, good for third in the Majors. Freddie Freeman continues to be one of the more productive members of Atlanta’s squad, collecting 10 hits and eight RBI in his last nine games. The 28 year-old slugger now boasts a .950 OPS and is hitting .307 with five home runs and 25 RBI on the season.

All told, Atlanta’s hitters are a big league best .274 at the plate, and lead the league with a .341 on-base percentage. However, with the exception of the number of runs scored (or driven in), the Rays and Braves offenses are startlingly close with one another over the last 14 days.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Whether Tampa Bay can end the home stand with an overall .500 record will depend on whether the team can sweep Atlanta. Pitching and defense will likely determine the outcome of series. Can the Rays defense — which has been very good all season, committing just 14 errors in the field (only Houston and Arizona have fewer) — continue to be solid? How about the pitching staff, which has gelled over the last 14-day, performing to an overall 3.27 ERA/3.03 FIP/3.53 xFIP line (3.14 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.64 xFIP by the starters, 3.46 ERA/3.17 FIP/3.42 xFIP by the ‘pen)?

Pitching Probables

Over the next couple of days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (4-1, 2.55 ERA) and the bullpen (6-10, 4.58 ERA). Brian Snitker will counter with Sean Newcomb (2-1, 3.38 ERA) and Julio Teheran (2-1, 3.65 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell allowed two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out four over 6-2/3 innings against the Tigers. The southpaw allowed a game-tying two-out solo home run against the final batter he faced in the seventh inning, although he was again impressive and efficient, throwing just 86 pitches (57 strikes, 66% strike ratio). Snell didn’t rack up the strikeouts after fanning at least nine in three of his past four starts, yet the effort was still good enough for his fifth straight quality start. Suffice it to say, Snell has fared well thus far, posting a 2.55 ERA and a .190 batting average over 42-1/3 innings. A cursory tale, the Braves rank third in the Majors with 181 runs scored and a .274 team batting average against left-handers.

Sean Newcomb picked up a win against the Mets on Wednesday, scattering two hits and a walk over seven scoreless frames while striking out eight. The left-hander threw 70 of 97 pitches for strikes (72% strike ratio) while generating 16 swinging strikes. He now has a total of 42 strikeouts on the season. Newcomb has conceded just three homers so far. This season he has relied primarily on a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with little arm side movement, while also mixing in a hard 88 mph worm-killer changeup, and a biting 77 mph curveball with arm side movement. Key Matchups: Denard Span (1-3)

I will update this piece when Wednesday’s starter for the Rays is announced.

Julio Teheran tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets on Thursday, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out six — carrying a no hitter into the seventh, which former Ray Asdrubal Cabrera broke up. Teheran exited his previous start with upper-back tightness, although his strong showing in his last start should ease any injury concerns. The 27 year-old has now thrown four quality starts over his past five outings, with his injury-shortened start against the Phillies marking the only time he didn’t toss six innings in that stretch. This season he has relied primarily on a whiffy 90 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking movement, an 89 mph sinker (using a two-seam fastball grip) with arm side run, and a whiffy 80 mph slider, while also mixing in an 82 mph changeup wit arm side fade. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-2, 2B, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-16, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (4-11, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Denard Span (13-35, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB)