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The New What Next: Rays vs Pirates — a series preview

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Adeiny Hechavarria is expected to join the Rays in Pittsburgh this week. (Photo Credit: CBS Sports)

Following a disappointing series loss against the Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays departed from the Sunshine State and hit the road for an eight-game, nine-day road trip. On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of three games against the sub .500 Pittsburg Pirates at PNC Park, in Pittsburgh.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay dropped two straight to a struggling Baltimore team to lose their first series since the start of June. They let a late 5-4 lead slip away on Sunday, as the bullpen once again collapsed. Alex Colome (1-3) ultimately took the loss after he allowed three uncharacteristic runs on two hits and two walks, while striking out just one in one inning of work. Still, Tampa Bay starts the series three-games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, who are in a virtual tie for first place in the AL East.

The Rays acquired Adeiny Hechevarria from the Marlins on Monday, giving them an elite glove at shortstop. He won’t do much at the plate, however, Hechevarria will shore up the defense up the middle. He is expected to join the team on the road in Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, the Pirates missed a chance to sweep St. Louis and fell five games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central. In the series finale, Pittsburgh led 4-2 they gave up two runs in the sixth and four in the seventh. Juan Nicasio (1-4) took the loss after he allowed four of those runs (three earned) on one hit and two walks in one-third of an inning. The Pirates are limited by the PED suspension of Starling Marte, and injuries to Antonio Bastardo and Francisco Cervelli — the latter of which is dealing with the lingering symptoms of a concussion. On Thursday, the team put Cervelli back on the DL, where he’ll likely remain for the duration of this series.

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six interleague road games overall, and 4-0 in their last four interleague road games against a team with a losing record. On the flip side, the Pirates are 0-4 in their last four interleague games against a right-handed starter — of which they’ll face two over the life of the series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (6-5, 4.05 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Blake Snell (with AAA 5-0, 2.66 ERA, 3.09 FIP), and Chris Archer (6-4, 3.88 ERA, 2.89 FIP) over the next three days. Clint Hurdle will counter with Trevor Williams (2-2, 5.01 ERA, 4.11 FIP), Ivan Nova (7-5, 3.06 ERA, 3.79 FIP), and Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.33 ERA, 3.79 FIP).

(Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb delivered his third consecutive quality start (the seventh in his last 10 games) in a 6-5 win over the Reds, on Tuesday. The right-hander threw seven innings of two run ball, notching six strikeouts. It was his second straight outing of more than 110 pitches. For what it’s worth, Cobb has gotten more comfortable with his changeup of late, and it’s regained some of its pre-surgery depth; the thing that made it such a dangerous weapon in the first place. He has shaved two-to-three inches of vertical movement off the pitch since the start of the season. For Cobb, the velocity never has been what’s made the pitch deadly, rather it is the movement. Bereft of the late break, his split-change became a meatball over the plate that begged to be crushed.

Williams struck out a career-high seven batters, while allowing three runs over six innings against the Brewers. Since moving from the bullpen, he has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his nine starts. He, however, has a 5.34 ERA at home this season, and a 5.09 through 58-1/3 innings overall. Why the inflated peripherals? Williams has allowed hitters to elevate, and has stranded just 63.2% of baserunners this season. That bodes well for a Rays team that’s shown the ability to string together some hits and knock the ball out of the park.

Snell rejoins the rotation after making adjustments at Triple-A Durham, where he posted a pristine 5-0 record. Something clicked with the southpaw, and he struck out 61 over 44 innings to pair with a 2.66 ERA/3.10 FIP in Durham — this, after fanning 34 in 42 innings with a 6.00 ERA with the Rays. He pitched into the seventh inning in all but two of those starts.

Nova allowed four runs on 11 hits over seven innings against the Brewers on Thursday. He has thrown at least six innings in each of his 15 starts this season. The 30 year-old right-hander owns a 2.53 ERA in seven home outings this year, partially because of his impeccable control this season. He’s walked a paltry 11 batters over 103-2/3 innings of work this season, but due to all that strike throwing, he has been known to allow the long-ball. Nova is 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 16 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (5-11, HR, 2 RBI), Corey Dickerson (1-4, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (11-38, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3)

Archer received plenty of run support in a 15-5 win over the Orioles, which is good because he wasn’t particularly great. Archer gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits over six innings on Friday. He also fanned a season-low four batters. The Rays hope their ace can bounce back in the series finale on Thursday.

Taillon hurled six strong innings and struck out seven on Friday, holding the Cardinals to two runs on four hits. This season Taillon has relied upon a mid-90s fastball (both two and four seam), and an upper 80s changeup. The 25 year-old right-hander isn’t a strikeout machine, rather he gets by by coaxing ground balls and slowing down the pace of the game if/when runners get aboard. That approach has its virtues and disadvantages, as Taillon has posted three starts without an earned run, and three starts with at least four. Key Matchup: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Boxberger will make another rehab appearance for the Stone Crabs Tuesday night. Boxberger had oblique tightness after his last appearance for the Durham Bulls and was not activated over the weekend as expected. If all goes well, he could be activated during this series.

Rays Roster Moves: Rays demote Blake Snell; promote Ryne Stanek

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Blake Snell was demoted after a rough outing against Boston on Saturday. (Photo Credit: USA Today Sports)

After another rough outing, one in which Blake Snell allowed the lead to slip away twice over five plus innings of work, the Tampa Bay Rays optioned the 24 year-old left-hander to Triple-A Durham. The Rays have recalled flame throwing reliever Ryne Stanek to take Snell’s spot on the roster.

Snell’s start yesterday followed a similar pattern — toss a good inning or two, then follow that by dooming himself with walks and deep counts that drive up the pitch count, and force him out of the game early. It was the seventh time in eight starts that Snell hadn’t completed at least six frames.

Over seven starts this season, the 24 year-old has yet to earn a win. The hope is that he will benefit from the lower intensity of Triple-A.

We’ve got to get him to the kind of environment where he can pitch without the pressure of trying to win a major-league game and focus on what got him good and what got him here in the first place, Rays manager Kevin Cash said,  explaining the thought process in sending Snell down. We would not be doing this if it was not 100 percent in his best interest.

However, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted, whether Snell agrees is unclear, as he wasn’t given the news until the media was done in the clubhouse:

I had asked him after the game if he might be better served being dropped from the rotation or sent down. He answered with a firm, “No,” and said he was “100 percent” confident that he could be successful in the majors.

In 42 innings this season, Snell has posted an unsightly 4.71 ERA (5.02 FIP), with a disappointing 7.29 K/9 and an ugly 5.36 BB/9 (1.36 K/BB). Connor Byrne (MLB Trade Rumors) also found that since his rookie campaign a season ago, Snell has lost some fastball velocity and generated fewer swinging strikes, as his rate has fallen from 10.9 percent in 2016 to 8.8 percent this year.

Overall, Snell — who is viewed as a front of the rotation pitcher, not a fifth starter — has become the weakest link in the starting rotation that, otherwise, has been strong this season with Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Matt Andriese and Jake Odorizzi netting strong results.

With his return to the minors, Stanek will join the ‘pen for what appears to be a long term promotion. The flame throwing hurler, who can hit triple digits with his fastball, was considered for a September promotion in 2016.

Veteran swingman Erasmo Ramirez will likely take Snell’s rotation spot, even though the Rays likely won’t need a fifth starter until they return home and face the Yankees on May 19th, following a travel day. It also is thought that LHP Ryan Yarborough could be in line for a promotion, as Tampa Bay currently has just one southpaw on the active roster (Jose Alvarado), however, room would have to be made on the 40-man roster.

Noteworthiness

— Matt Duffy update: Duffy went 0-2 at the plate in his rehab start with Charlotte yesterday, although he didn’t take his third at-bat because he felt he “might’ve been doing more harm than good” by doing so.

LBWMF: Errors almost sink Rays’ battleship in 5-4 win against Boston

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With the exception of a hairy seventh inning, Alex Cobb looked great in the series opener against Boston Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

In spite of a seventh inning filled with defensive miscues, the Tampa Bay Rays won the first of a six-game road trip, 5-4 against the Red Sox. Evan Longoria homered over the Green Monster in the fifth inning, while Alex Cobb hurled one-hit baseball over the first six frames.

Tampa Bay initially took the lead in the fourth, taking advantage of a leadoff error by third baseman Josh Rutledge, allowing Longoria to reach. After Logan Morrison struck out, Rickie Weeks Jr. lined through the right side for a single, putting two on. Both runners advanced into scoring position on a passed ball Sandy Leon before Tim Beckham ripped an RBI single into the left-center alley, scoring Longoria and Weeks to cap the rally.

They were able to extend the lead to five runs in the fifth inning, and Derek Norris got things going with an infield single to third. Rutledge fielded the ball cleanly, but took way too much time to make his throw over to first — likely assuming that Norris was from the Jose Molina school of running. Rutledge guessed incorrectly, and the play was first scored an E6, but later changed to a hit. Norris scored from first on Corey Dickerson’s double off the top of the center field wall — an extra base hit that would have been a homer in any other ball park. After Dickerson advanced to third on Brad Miller’s sacrifice fly to deep centerfield, Longoria sent a mammoth homer out of Fenway Park for a five-run advantage.

You’d think a five-run lead would be easy to hold, especially with the way Cobb dealt through the first six innings. However, multiple errors in the seventh put the lead in jeopardy. With one out and none on, Chris Young hit a shallow fly to right. I’ll let Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) to call the play-by-play on this gaffe:

Logan Morrison ran out from first base while Colby Rasmus came in from right. Morrison had a tough play, needing to make a catch over his shoulder, while Rasmus had an easy play—if he could get there. That’s why the outfielder is expected to take charge in that situation. Morrison glanced at Rasmus and thought he would, slowing up for a step and a half. But Rasmus never fully got on his horse, and by the time Morrison realized he had to make the play it was too late. The ball fell between them.

A clearly frustrated Cobb then walked Mitch Moreland bringing Rutledge to the plate. Boston’s third baseman bunted up the third base line, and Cobb — who fielded the play — threw past first base, and into the stands, for what was scored an infield hit and a throwing error, giving the BoSox their first run.

Then with a pair of runners in scoring position, Leon blooped a ground-rule double into the stands in right, making it 5–3. Cobb, the unfortunate recipient of the BABIP luck dragons, was pulled in favor of Jose Alvarado. And while Alavardo induced a ground ball to second from Jackie Bradley Jr., Miller booted booted the play, allowing a run to score. Miller then threw the ball past second, allowing Bradley to move into scoring position on his second error of the play (and the third of the inning). Erasmo Ramirez got the final two outs in the seventh, although he ran into trouble an inning later.

Erasmo allowed a double by Xander Bogaerts, hit just past a diving Longoria, to open the inning. Then Andrew Benintendi walked on a 3–2 pitch, and Chris Young flew out to right, moving Bogaerts to third. Cash called upon LOOGY Danny Farquhar to collect a huge strikeout from Moreland for the second out of the inning. Finally, Alex Colome entered the fracas and induced a groundout to third from Rutledge. Inning over.

Colome posted a perfect ninth to earn the save, getting Mookie Betts to fly to left center to end the contest.

The New What Next

The Rays play the second game of the series on Saturday. Left-hander Blake Snell (0-3, 3.96 ERA, 5.03 FIP) will toe the rubber opposite of Chris Sale (3-2, 1.92 ERA, 1.45 FIP). The game was moved to 1:05 PM because of the potential for inclement weather.

Snell continued to struggle with fastball command on Monday against Kansas City, as he allowed four runs on 10 hits and a walk, while fanning two in five innings. He now has pitched five innings or fewer in six consecutive starts. The southpaw allowed four runs in five innings against Boston in April, although only one of those runs was earned.

Sale is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing a season-high four runs to Minnesota, yet he still struck out 10 and earned the win. Sale struck out 12 Rays over seven innings on April 15, and has double-digit strikeouts in his last six starts — two away from tying the Major League record that he shares with Pedro Martinez. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-6)

You can read about the pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 5/13/17 Starting Lineup

Souza RF
Robertson 2B
Longoria 3B
Weeks DH
Morrison 1B
Beckham SS
Norris C
Kiermaier CF
Bourjos LF
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Medical matters, courtesy of Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times):

OF Steven Souza Jr. said his bruised right thumb felt “much better” Friday, as he was considered available to pinch-hit and expects to be back in the lineup today or Sunday for the first time since Monday. … SS Matt Duffy felt slight soreness in his left heel during his second rehab game Thursday but is slated to play again tonight for the advanced Class A Stone Crabs. … RHP Tommy Hunter, sidelined since a late April calf strain, is slated to throw his first bullpen session today.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox, part two — a series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier takes a moment in the outfield after committing his fourth fielding gaffe (third error) in three days. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic)

Changes of scenery can be good. Often times I just drive, it doesn’t matter where. I put my foot to the floor and let the wind blow through my hair. After a 3-6 homestand, including another series loss to the Royals, a change of scenery would serve the Tampa Bay Rays well. First stop Boston, where they’ll start a three-game series with the Red Sox on Friday.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays have fallen a bit below .500 thanks to the loss to the Royals. They also have lost five of their last seven, including the two of three they against Toronto. It’s worth noting both the Royals and the Blue Jays are two of the most disappointing teams in the league so far this year.

It certainly doesn’t help that Tampa Bay dropped three of four against Boston in April, this despite posting a positive run differential over the span of the series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (3-1, 3.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP), Blake Snell (0-3, 3.96 ERA, 5.03 FIP), and Matt Andriese (2-1, 3.12 ERA, 4.56 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Rick Porcello (2-4, 3.95 ERA, 3.97 FIP), Chris Sale (3-2, 1.92 ERA, 1.45 FIP), and Drew Pomeranz (3-2, 5.23 ERA, 4.70 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over eight innings on Sunday, although he came away with the loss. He is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts, and 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five career starts at Fenway Park — including his last start against the Red Sox, when he relinquished four runs on 11 hits in five innings.

Porcello is starting to look like the reigning Cy Young Award winner that he is. Over his last four starts, he has gone at least six innings in each and has a 27-to-5 K/BB in 26-2⁄3 innings. Interestingly enough, the start prior to this run was against Tampa Bay when he allowed eight runs, with four home runs mixed in, over just 4-1⁄3 innings. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (7-22, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (7-23, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (10-24, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (3-9), Steven Souza Jr. (7-23, HR, RBI, BB)

Snell continued to struggle with fastball command on Monday against Kansas City, as he allowed four runs on 10 hits and a walk, while fanning two in five innings. He now has pitched five innings or fewer in six consecutive starts. The southpaw allowed four runs in five innings against Boston in April, although only one of those runs was earned.

Sale is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing a season-high four runs to Minnesota, yet he still struck out 10 and earned the win. Sale struck out 12 Rays over seven innings on April 15, and has double-digit strikeouts in his last six starts — two away from tying the Major League record that he shares with Pedro Martinez. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-6)

Andriese allowed two earned runs in 5-1/3 innings against against Kansas City on Tuesday, coming away with a no-decision. He, however, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two career appearances at Fenway, and 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career appearances against the Red Sox. Andriese’s strikeout rate is around average, his walk rate is in good shape, and he has juxtaposed the home runs he’s allowed this year by inducing a bunch of ground balls. This will be his first time facing the Red Sox in 2017.

Pomeranz is coming off a rough start, giving up five runs and two homers in the first inning against the Brewers. Pomeranz last faced Tampa Bay on April 16, and he had an uneven start, giving up five runs over 4-1/3 innings, but also striking out 10. Home runs have been a major issue for the lefty this season, and he’s now given up a total of seven over 31 innings, counterbalancing the 36 strikeouts he has collected. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (7-15, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (1-4, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Souza’s thumb is feeling better, and hopes to get back in lineup on Saturday or Sunday.

— With the forecast calling for heavy rain in the evening, Saturday’s game has been moved up to 1:05 PM.

The New What Next: Rays vs Royals — a series preview

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I’d reckon losing a one-run game kind of tastes like this. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

On the heels of a series loss to the Blue Jays — yes, the sub .500 Blue Jays — the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome another underperforming team to the Trop, when the Kansas City Royals come to town for a four game series, starting Monday.

(Stats: ESPN)

Much like the Rays, the Royals are coming off a series loss. Unlike the Rays, however, the Royals are in a far worse position. Kansas City has struggled to get anything started offensively this season, and if you think Tampa Bay has struggled to plate runs of late, compare that to the Royals, who’ve scored just 38 runs over the last 14 days — playing to a 68 wRC+ and a -15.5 wRAA.

In spite of what their W/L record might suggest, if Tampa Bay’s Pythagorean and BaseRuns expectations speak to anything, it’s that the Rays, essentially, are a plus .500 ball club. Kansas City? Well…the Royals are sub .500 across the board.

I know what you’re saying, “the Royals have owned the Rays over the last few years,” and it’s true, after all they’ve posted a 20-6 record against Tampa Bay since 2013. However, the Rays have a legitimate chance to get back over .500 — and beat the former world champs — this week. Then again, they had a legitimate chance to do the same against Toronto this past weekend, so what do I know?

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Blake Snell (0-2, 3.45 ERA, 4.98 FIP), Matt Andriese (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 4.66 FIP), Chris Archer (2-1, 3.57 ERA, 3.19 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 2.88 ERA, 4.64 FIP). Ned Yost will counter with Nathan Karns (1-2, 3.81 ERA, 5.05 FIP), a pitcher to be determined, Jason Hammel (1-3, 5.53 ERA, 4.01 FIP), and Jason Vargas (4-1, 1.19 ERA, 2.16 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell, because his of command issues, cannot break the fifth inning barrier. In five consecutive outings, after hurling 6-2/3 innings in his first start of the season, the southpaw has pitched five innings or fewer. Granted he struck out nine in his five inning start against Miami, however, it still took Snell 109 pitches to get 15 outs. The high strikeout rate suggests he may be starting to put it all together, and when he does opposing batters will need to look out.

Karns was excellent in his last outing, throwing six shutout innings while giving up just one hit and fanning seven. What the former Ray throws should be no surprise to any of you; a 93 mph four-seam fastball, a devastating 83 mph knuckle curveball that generates a lot of swings and misses, and a whiffy 87 mph changeup. He’ll also mix in a 93 mph sinker from time to time. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-3, 2B), Colby Rasmus (2-8, 2B)

Andriese collected the third scoreless start of his career Thursday against the Marlins. He’s pitched past the seventh inning in each of his last two starts, and has thrown 100 pitches or more three times in his last four starts — this after not reaching that plateau in any of his previous 14 starts.

TBA

Archer pitched well against the Blue Jays Friday night, yet came away with a no-decision after having been victimized by Kendrys Morales in the seventh inning. Still, the Rays’ ace was overpowering, notching 11 strikeouts (also notching 13 swinging strikes). Archer ace now has one loss and three no-decisions over his last four trips to the mound in spite of two quality starts and 30 strikeouts over a 25 inning stretch.

Hammel had his best outing of the season against Cleveland on Friday, tossing six innings of one-run ball, while scattering just three hits. It was his first victory as a Royal, ending a six-start skid dating back to September of last season. Reporters have noted that he worked exclusively out of the stretch, ditching the windup in hopes of simplifying his delivery and achieving better results.

It’s something I had experimented with on the side and just committed to it. In the windup, there are a lot of pieces that have to go right, a lot of moving parts and the timing is going to be everything. With the stretch, everything is up and down, two movements up and down and you’re going to the plate.

The former Ray is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA against Tampa Bay over six career starts. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (1-2, HR, RBI), Colby Rasmus (6-19, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (3-8, 2B, BB)

Odorizzi pitched a quality start on Saturday against the Blue Jays, allowing just three hits over seven innings. He completely shut down the Blue Jays while getting plenty of run support on his way to his second win of the season. He’s gone four consecutive starts without allowing more than an earned run, pitching to a 2.88 ERA to boot. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against his former team, the Royals.

Vargas tossed six shutout innings against Cleveland on Saturday, allowing four hits while fanning six in a no-decision. In spite of a 4-5 record in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay, he has held the Rays to a 3.11 ERA and is a tough competitor to say the least. This season he has relied primarily on his 87 mph four-seam fastball and 81 mph circle changeup, while also mixing in a 74 mph knuckle curveball and an 87 mph two-seam fastball/sinker. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (7-23, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Brad Miller (4-8), Rickie Weeks Jr. (2B, HR, 2 RBI)