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Charlie Morton signs with Atlanta, Rays are open to the idea of trading Blake Snell

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I, too, am teary-eyed. Thanks for everything, Charlie.

A day after the Tampa Bay Rays made waves by informing other teams they are open to the idea of trading left-hander Blake Snell (more on that below), the team was dealt a major blow when Atlanta announced it inked a one-year, $15-million deal with right-hander Charlie Morton. Mark Feinsand (MLB.com) reported that Tampa Bay was the other finalist in Morton’s market.

The loss of Morton stings, especially given that his $15-million contract with Atlanta matches the sum for which the Rays could’ve retained him had they exercised his club option for the 2021 season. It would appear that Tampa Bay had hoped to keep the right-hander at a lesser rate for the upcoming season — MLB Trade Rumors projected Morton to receive an $8-million, one-year contract, albeit with the Mets. Morton now returns to the franchise that originally drafted him back in 2002.

The 37-year-old Morton battled shoulder fatigue and was limited to nine starts and 38 innings in 2020 while pitching to a 4.74 ERA. Yet, after his stint on the Injured List, he returned with improved velocity and a 3.72 ERA across his seven remaining regular-season starts, then went on to post a 2.70 ERA through 20 postseason innings. More than that, however, Morton was a leader in the Rays clubhouse, especially during the Covid-19 shortened season.

The question begs: How will Erik Neander fill Morton’s shoes?

The free-agent market is one option, with Cory Kluber (MLBTR projected $12-Million), Robbie Ray (MLBTR projected $6-Million), and Adam Wainwright (MLBTR projected $6-Million) still available and relatively reasonably priced. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) also noted, the Rays could conceivably add multiple pitchers they believe they can tweak and take to another level. “That has been something they’ve done frequently with relievers, but it’s certainly not out of the question they could do so with potential starters.” Tampa Bay could also use some of their position player depth to help fill any gaps in the rotation. That would help add a veteran presence among the emerging arms that likely will be leaned upon, such as Shane McClanahan, Brent Honeywell, Joe Ryan, and Josh Fleming.

Solondz was also quick to remind that the Rays have bounced back from situations like this in the past.

Certainly, Erik Neander and the rest of the Rays front office have done the right things during their current climb. In the year they traded Evan Longoria and then Chris Archer in-season, Tampa Bay jumped to 90 victories.

The following year, the team unloaded popular Mallex Smith and CJ Cron after arguably his best season yet made the playoffs and won 96 games. Then the team traded Tommy Pham and Emilio Pagan and ended up in the World Series in 2020.

— Neil Solondz

In short, while this stings, it’s still just November. With the dearth of players on what appears to be a very slow free-agent market, the Rays do have a few things that work in their favor, such as a winning environment, the clubhouse culture, and the lack of state income tax in the State of Florida.

As I alluded to above, the Rays have made it known that they are open to the idea of trading left-hander Blake Snell. Pay attention to the phrasing though: “open to the idea of” is clearly not the same as “actively looking to trade him.”

Tampa Bay recently inked a five-year, $50-Million extension with Snell before the 2019 season. However, the budget-conscious ball-club could move on from the southpaw if it receives an enticing enough offer. Snell still has three years and $39-Million left on that deal and is set to earn $10.5-Million in 2021, $12.5-Million in 2022, and $16-Million in 2023.

Snell, after receiving word of the news, mentioned that he is committed to Tampa Bay and would love the opportunity to remain with the Rays.

The club has made similar moves in the past with the trades of David Price, James Shields, Chris Archer, Evan Longoria, and Tommy Pham. But more often than not, the Rays front office first makes a proclamation that it is open to the idea of trading a player in order to test the waters of the market, then waits until there are two years of team control remaining in his contract before they pull the trigger on a deal. And based on the kind of returns the Rays would expect if they were to trade Snell, don’t expect any team to emphatically say “yes” to the opportunity of looking like the next Pittsburgh Pirates.

At any rate, JT Morgan (DRaysBay) wrote an excellent piece on what the Rays could get in return from the three likeliest teams that could cobble together a deal for Snell: the Seattle Mariners, the Los Angeles Angels, and the San Diego Padres. You can read that article here.

For what it’s worth, given the amount of instability in Tampa Bay’s pitching corps, it would make more sense to hold onto Snell for the time being, which I’m sure Neander is well aware of. Then again, when have your feelings ever factored into the team’s financial decisions?

Looking back on the contentious decision to pull Snell in Game 6 of the World Series

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Blake Snell was pulled in favor of Nick Anderson after 5-1/3 innings of shutout ball in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series.

Seven days have passed since Kevin Cash made the contentious decision that many viewed as the death knell of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2020 World Series — pulling Blake Snell after 5-1/3 scoreless innings. Hell, even I called it a bad move at the time, and in the heat of the moment. Since then though, many analytics-driven sites like FanGraphs, the Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus have come out generally in favor of Cash’s decision, while other more traditional outlets have turned Cash into a pariah. I’ve heard both sides of the discussion, and I have finally at peace with the decision. However, I will say that Cash did make a costly error: he called upon Nick Anderson instead of Diego Castillo or Ryan Thompson.

As a general rule, the performance of a pitcher across the first few innings predicts nothing as it relates to how he will perform across subsequent frames. True, Snell was dominant against the Dodgers through 5-1/3 innings, however, there was no guarantee that he would carry that forward. As Mitchel Lichtman (MGL Baseball) noted, it improved his expected ERA by 1/4 of a run, give or take. Yet that improvement would be negated the third time through the order.

Snell, like most other pitchers, faces some trouble the third time through the order. Over his career, his wOBA jumps dramatically from .263 the first time through the order to .321, while his SLG tops out at .413. In 2020, his .913 OPS allowed the third time through the order is far worse than what a fresh reliever should have been able to hurl.

(Credit: FanGraphs)
(Credit: FanGraphs)

Furthermore, there is evidence that Snell was tiring. Both Snell’s fastball and curveball velocity dropped precipitously. For reference, a pitcher with a fastball at 94 mph, instead of 96 mph, is about a half-run of ERA worse. And once his velocity started to fall, it was likly to continue until he ran into trouble.

As Eno Sarris (the Athletic) detailed, “His last fastball against Austin Barnes was his slowest fastball of the night, and a full tick below where he’d been sitting so far in the game. And Snell has been, in his career, 23 percent worse than league average when it comes to third-time through the order. If his personal splits in that might not matter (we’re still only talking about 432 regular-season plate appearances in which he’s seen a lineup a third time), the league has established third-time through the order splits that matter. Snell had not finished the sixth inning all season.”

Snell’s fastball to Barnes was two miles per hour off his average during the contest. Craig Edwards (FanGraphs) noted that when Snell’s fastball was at least 95 mph during the regular season, he coaxed swings-and-misses on 13% of pitches. However, when his fastball velocity fell under 95 mph, his whiff rate was just 9%. That was on display during Game 6. Snell got four swings and misses on his seven hardest fastballs of the night, and six on his hardest 13. Yet on the 16 pitches below 96.5 mph? The left-hander induced just two whiffs.

Put simply, Snell did his job quite effectively but he was getting tired and he was set to face the top of the Dodgers’ order for the third time.

Cash was in control of arguably the best bullpen in baseball — the stable as it were — with a good number of arms that had proven fairly successful against Los Angeles up to that point. And staked to a 1-0 lead against a team that hadn’t been shutout all season, the choice was about who would be the most effective hurler to replace Snell. This is where I believe Cash made the wrong decision.

Cash went with Anderson, who held opponents to a .091 BA/.138 OBP/.182 SLG/.320 OPS line during the regular, which was better than even Snell’s first time through the order stat line. However, Anderson had struggled in the postseason.

The vertical movement on his fastball had dropped by almost two inches since the start of 2019, while his heater was down almost two full ticks from 2019 to now. Anderson, who regularly lives at the top of the zone, wasn’t able to get his fastball above hitter’s bats, or with the velocity that would make the pitch effective. As Sarris put it, “All year he’d had less movement and velo, and as that trend worsened, so did his results.”

After the game, Anderson conceded that he didn’t feel great.

Workload, 2020 season, the whole thing is just crazy, honestly. Not having a normal routine, lifting, the season, everything — it’s been crazy. I didn’t feel as good as I would have liked to, but it’s the big leagues; you’re not going to feel good every time. I was still confident. It wasn’t the situation, it wasn’t being in the World Series or anything like that. Not a lot of gas.

— Nick Anderson

Cash probably should have gone with Castillo or Thompson (and his 59% ground ball rate) to get the outs and use Anderson against the softer back end of the order before handing the ball over to Pete Fairbanks. Or, the Rays offense could have scored more than one run, rendering all of this back-and-forth moot.

At the end of the day, an unpopular decision was made and no amount of prognostication will change the outcome. Cash had made similar decisions all season long, and those moves got the Rays to the World Series with the best record in the American League. Should he have been pilloried for being consistent? In my opinion, probably not.

TNWN: Rays vs. Dodgers — a World Series preview

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World Series bound. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After making their way through the 16-team playoff bracket, as well as three postseason series, the two top-seeded teams will square off against one another in the 2020 World Series. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off dramatic game seven victories in their respective League Championship Series.

Tampa Bay enters play with three of their top hitters — Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz, and Willy Adames — offering the team little in the way of offensive help, having slashed a combined .109 BA/.268 OBP/.124 SLG/.392 OPS with just three extra-base hits in 129 postseason at-bats. This, despite the fact that the three of them posted a wRC+ of 120 or better in at least 100 regular-season plate appearances. Austin Meadows has been all but absent too with the exception of two well-timed home runs. Even so, Lowe, and to an extent Mike Zunino, appear to be breaking out of their offensive slumbers, having gone a combined 6-21 (.286 BA), with four runs, three RBI, and two homers in the last three ball games. Their bats, ideally, should complement those of Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot, both of whom have carried the Rays during the postseason.

Speaking of Arozarena, Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs) put it best:

Arozarena collected five other hits as well, and batted .321/.367/.786 while driving in six runs. In winning LCS MVP honors, he joined the Orioles’ Mike Boddicker (1983 ALCS), the Marlins’ Livan Hernandez (1997 NCS), and the Cardinals’ Michael Wacha (2013 NLCS) — all pitchers — as the only rookies to win the award; Hernandez also won the World Series MVP award, lest Arozarena need to set another goal. They don’t give Division Series MVP awards, but his .421/.476/.895 showing with three home runs against the Yankees, and for that matter his .500/.556/1.000 performance in the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays, might have garnered him additional hardware. The dude is en fuego, hitting a combined .382/.433/.855 through 60 postseason plate appearances, with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases (three doubles, one triple, seven homers).

— Jay Jaffe

Tampa Bay has been a little too home run happy in the postseason, but who am I to judge? After all, the Rays find themselves four victories away from winning it all. Nevertheless, they will need to do more than just hit dingers. Ji-Man Choi reached base three times in each of his last two starts, and that’s a start. Diaz has not squared up a ball, yet he has walked more than he’s struck out. Getting Choi and Diaz going (along with the aforementioned Lowe, Adames, and Meadows) will create more balance for a group that has had just three players carry the offense.

The question begs, Can Tampa Bay stop Los Angeles’ potent offense? The Dodgers scored nearly six runs per game versus their NL West and AL West opponents this season. That’s due in part to their depth. While the Rays can mix and match with the best of them, Los Angeles has the ability to send star-after-star to the plate. Dan Szymborski (FanGraphs) made an apt analogy, it “is a bit like having an opponent who is allowed to angrily shove all of the (chess) pieces off the board and start over.”

The Dodgers simply do better in slugfests than the Rays do, even when they’re on the wrong side of them: in games that start with the opposing team scoring four runs in the top of the first, the Dodgers still project to win 8% of the time, while the Rays can only boast 3% odds. This holds true for all similar scenarios.

— Dan Szymborski

The Dodgers led all of baseball in home runs this season (118) and had five players reach double digits. Tampa Bay had just one player with a double-digit home run total: Brandon Lowe (14).

It will be incumbent upon the Rays to limit the free passes and keep the Dodgers in the park. That, however, is easier said than done. Still, as Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, “the Rays were able to out-homer Houston 11-9 and the Yankees 11-10. The closer the teams are to a wash in this category, the better the chances for Tampa Bay to win the World Series.”

Pitching Probables

Rays manager Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.66 ERA), Blake Snell (2-2, 3.20 ERA), Charlie Morton (3-0, 0.57 ERA), and likely Ryan Yarbrough (1-0, 3.60 ERA) in the front four games. Given the two off-days built into the World Series schedule, that would set the front three hurlers for games five, six, and seven. Dave Roberts will counter with Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 3.32 ERA) in game one, a hurler to be named before game two, Walker Buehler (1-0, 1.89 ERA) in game three, and hurlers to be named before games four and five.

I will update this piece as the situation becomes clear.

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and he was good, but not great. The right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five on 96 pitches (55 strikes, 57% strike rate, 20% SwStr). Glasnow allowed a first-inning solo shot and an RBI double in the third inning to Jose Altuve, and a two-run blast to George Springer on a 99 mph, 3-1 fastball with the game scored knotted up at two in the bottom of the fifth. Yet, he also limited the damage by inducing weak contact and six ground balls. It was a rare power outburst against a hurler that maintained a 1.73 HR/9 in 2020 (and a 0.59 HR/9 in 2019). Glasnow enters his next start — assuming the Rays move on to the World Series — with a 4.66 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, and a 3.1 K/BB across 19-1/3 playoff innings.

Clayton Kershaw surrendered four runs on seven hits and one walk over five-plus innings in game four of the NLCS. He struck out four. Kershaw only gave up a solo homer to Marcell Ozuna during his outing, although he allowed a single and back-to-back doubles to start the sixth before being removed. It should be noted that the southpaw has not been healthy, as he has been dealing with some back issues. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay, however, he maintains a 4.31 postseason ERA extending back to 2008. The left-hander relies primarily on a hard 88 mph worm-killer slider and a 92 mph four-seam fastball which is straight as an arrow and has some added backspin, while also mixing in a 74 mph 12-6 curveball with exceptional bite.

Blake Snell allowed two earned runs on three hits and four walks while striking out four across four innings in game six of the ALCS. Snell was pulled having thrown just 82 pitches (45 strikes, 55% strike rate, 18% SwStr%) after allowing the first two batters of the fifth inning to reach base. He, however, was unsteady through the first four — allowing at least one baserunner in three — yet the only run charged to him came after he exited the game.

TBA

Charlie Morton pushed in his best outing of the season, allowing just two hits across 5-2/3 efficient innings, while striking out six and walking one on 66 pitches (48 strikes, 73% strike rate, 15% SwStr%). Over the first five frames, Morton allowed just one base hit — to Michael Brantley — while striking out five on 49 pitches. Yet, Houston made things interesting in the sixth with the Rays ahead by three. Martín Maldonado walked on four pitches with one out. George Springer followed by grounding into a 5-4 fielder’s choice for the second out. After Jose Altuve worked the count full, and with Springer was on the move, Altuve beat out a chopper to third to put runners on the corners with two outs. Given that Morton’s OPS increased to 1.006 the third time through the order, Rays skipper Kevin Cash called upon Nick Anderson in the high leverage situation. Anderson got Brantley to ground out to second on the second pitch of the at-bat, ending the threat.

Walker Buehler struck out six batters while allowing seven hits and zero walks across six scoreless frames in his last start against Atlanta. Buehler was staked to a three-run lead in the bottom of the first inning, which proved to be all the Dodgers would need in their 3-1 win. The right-hander loaded the bases on three consecutive singles to open the top of the second, but he escaped the jam with a pair of strikeouts and a groundout. He was rarely in much trouble the rest of the way. Buehler opened the regular season with a 5.21 ERA in his first four starts but cruised to a 1.53 ERA in his final four appearances and has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts. Buehler relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin, while also mixing in a firm 82 mph curveball with exceptional bite and slight glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph cutter, an 87 mph Slider that sweeps across the zone and boasts two-plane movement, and a 97 mph sinker with little sinking action. Key Matchup: Manuel Margot (1-4, HR)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings on Tuesday in game three of the ALCS against the Astros. The left-hander picked up the start in a critical game in the series and followed through with a solid outing. He allowed a solo shot in the first inning, although he was effective the rest of the way before he surrendered a leadoff home run in the sixth inning which resulted in his removal. Yarbrough has never faced the Dodgers.

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Rays pitching Staff: 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP overall (starters 3.77 ERA/4.25 FIP, relievers 3.37 ERA/3.65 FIP vs. the Dodgers pitching staff: 3.02 ERA/3.79 FIP (starters 3.29 ERA/4.11 FIP, relievers 2.74 ERA/3.45 FIP)

— Tampa Bay 98’ers, meet the other stable. Although the World Series rosters have not been set, Los Angeles is likely to have as many as eight pitchers whose fastballs averaged 95 mph or faster this season.

— The Rays made a couple of moves on Tuesday, adding LHP Ryan Sherriff and OF Brett Phillips to the World Series roster. To clear space for Sherriff and Phillips, Tampa Bay removed LHP Jose Alvarado and RHP Aaron Slegers from the roster.

Sherriff did not allow a run over 10 regular season appearances (9-2/3 innings) although he has not been active in the postseason. The move gives Tampa Bay six southpaws among the 13 pitchers, with Sherriff joining Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, Aaron Loup, and Shane McClanahan. Keeping Fleming and McClanahan provides length for Kevin Cash.

Per Neil Solondz, the decision on Alvarado may have come down to strike throwing, as he walked three straight batters in game six.

Phillips was active in the Wildcard series and Division Series, although he was not on the ALCS roster when Tampa Bay went with 14 pitchers. With Kevin Kiermaier battling a bad wrist after being hit by a 99 mph pitch in the Championship Series, Phillips provides additional defensive insurance, as well as the ability to pinch-run and pinch-hit. It also will give the Rays a six-man bench.

— “This is what you play for.”

— The City of St. Pete will be hosting Rays/World Series watch parties for all seven games at the new Pier (which is awesome if you haven’t yet gone there). The game will be aired live on a giant screen. It bears mentioning: Each watch party will be a socially distant gathering, where masks are strongly encouraged. You can find out more at the link.

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — an American League Division Series preview

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This motley crew will start the best of five AL Division Series against the Yankees in San Diego on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wildcard Series, as well as one last workout at Tropicana Field on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for Petco Park in San Diego, where they will face the division-rival New York Yankees in the best of five American League Division Series, starting Monday. The Yankees are coming off a series sweep against Cleveland.

The brief set against the Blue Jays exemplified Tampa Bay’s season. In the first game the Rays pitching staff — led by Blake Snell — limited Toronto to just one run, while the offense took advantage of a wild pitch for the first run of the contest before Manuel Margot hit his first career postseason home run in the bottom of the seventh. Then in game number two, Mike Zunino and Hunter Renfroe used the long ball to plate six runs in the second inning, as the Rays outpaced the Jays, 8-2. All told, Snell and Tyler Glasnow combined for 16 of the pitching staff’s total 26 punchouts across the two ball games.

The Yankees did as they are wont to do in their iteration of the Wildcard series: mash their way to victory against Cleveland while performing to a .653 SLG and a 1.062 OPS across 93 plate appearances, including 11 extra-base hits. But they also did something they’re accustomed to, strike out 24.7% of the time. You can expect the Rays hurlers to exploit that latent whiffiness this week. I know, I know … the Rays also have a lot of swing-and-miss in them. However — and as Brian Anderson regularly said throughout the season — because the Yankees are so dependent upon the long ball, they can be pitched to. The 22 combined runs against Cleveland, arguably, had more to do with a pitching staff that couldn’t keep the Evil Empire in the yard. In the regular season, Tampa Bay proved they can beat you with the long ball, they can beat you by playing small ball, and they can beat you on the mound.

It was another contentious season battle between a pair of rivals that have had a penchant for heated ball games extending all the way back to Spring Training 2008. This season, all the chirping and ill feelings toward one another resulted in the infamous 101 mph pitch at Mike Brosseau’s head which spawned the fabled Tampa Bay 98ers stable.

98ers Rays’ centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier summed things up well on Friday, saying,

With all the history that we’ve had the last couple years, it is what it is. I’ve said it many times: they don’t like us, we don’t like them, and it’s going to continue to stay that way. It’s going to be a very fun, energetic, exciting (series). And I know each team is going to want to try to put it to the opposition. I know that for a fact. So it’s going to be two great teams playing against each other. I know our guys are really excited, we’re ready to go. So I’m very confident. And we plan on having the same thoughts once we get out west and expecting to win that series.

— Kevin Kiermaier

New York’s entitled corps of players attempted to use fear and intimidation against Tampa Bay this season and, well … that strategy clearly was not a winning one. The Rays were neither fearful of, nor intimidated by, the Yankees in 2020. The division champs went 8-2 against the fourth-place seed who scuffled to a 4-6 record across the final 10 games of the season. What’s more, the Rays put up a +13 run differential against the Yanks in 2020, limited them to 13 total home runs, a .691 OPS, and a .117 batting average with runners in scoring position. Moreso, New York averaged 3.4 runs per game while Tampa Bay totaled 4.7 RPG in their meetings.

Because of all this, expect a tense and compelling series that will probably go all five games.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash has committed to throwing Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-4, 4.05 ERA). Aaron Boone will counter with Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA), Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 5.11 ERA). I will update this piece when any changes are announced.

Blake Snell matched the franchise postseason record for the most strikeouts in a start over his 5-2/3 innings of work. Across the first five frames, the southpaw allowed just a two-out walk to Randal Grichuk the first inning and a one-out free pass to Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth that was erased on a double-play ground ball off the bat of Jonathan Villar. Snell struck out eight over that stretch.

Yet, Alejandro Kirk led off the sixth inning by lining a fastball to right for the first hit off Snell. Then number nine hitter Danny Jansen followed fly-ball out to right during a nine-pitch at-bat. Cavan Biggio struck out which ended up being the last batter Snell would face. He threw 82 pitches (48 strikes, 59% strike rate, 38% SwStr%) during his outing. Snell’s exit had more to do with an offense that struggled to put runs on the board, than anything having to do with the hurler’s efficacy or lack thereof. Had the Rays put more than one run on the board through the front six, Cash likely wouldn’t have turned to the bullpen. But that’s all speculation. Snell is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts against the Yankees, and 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against them in 2020. Of note, the left-hander limited right-handed hitters to a .733 OPS this season.

Gerrit Cole allowed two runs on six hits across seven innings on Tuesday, in Game 1 of the AL Wildcard round. He struck out 13 and did not issue a walk. Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a game where everyone expected a pitchers’ duel, lasting seven frames. The Yankees’ ace threw 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) while fanning an impressive number of batters. The right-hander recorded a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 3.89 FIP during the regular season. This season Cole went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA against the Rays, including a five-inning four-run, eight-hit outing which included a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (9-17, 3 2B, 3 HR), Yandy Díaz (5-15, HR), Manuel Margot (4-16, 2B)

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and posted six innings of two-run baseball on six hits (including two solo homers) and one walk while striking out eight.

We showed the potential of what we can do on both sides of the ball. Obviously, in Game 1 we had Blake throw an absolute gem and we were able to scrape enough runs to win, and today showed the bats coming alive and Tyler allowing just two and the bullpen keeping it where it was. I think it just solidifies who we are as a team.

— Mike Zunino

After a 1-2-3 first, Glasnow worked around a pair of singles in the top of the second, yet without incurring any damage. Then, staked to a seven-run lead in the third inning, Danny Jansen launched a solo home run off the right-hander that left a dent in the catwalk above the left-field stands. Bo Bichette followed by earning a walk, but Glasnow buckled down and the Jays settled for just a run. In the fifth inning, Jansen blasted another lead-off solo shot yet that is all he would, or the Rays, allow. Glasnow finished his outing having thrown 86 pitches (55 strikes, 64% strike rate, 20% SwStr%). He held Toronto to 0-for-8 with four punchies with runners in scoring position.

It feels great. We had a bunch of confidence going into this. Everyone went out there with no pressure, just kind of loose like we’ve been all year. Especially in that second inning, just to watch the momentum and the adrenaline from the grand slam, it was a pretty special moment.

T

— Tyler Glasnow

Deivi Garcia struck out seven after allowing four runs on seven hits and one walk across 6-2/3 innings two Saturdays ago against the Marlins. The rookie right-hander allowed three runs on four hits during the third inning, but he otherwise did a good job of limiting the Marlins. Garcia finished his rookie campaign with a 4.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 5.5 K/BB over 27-2/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup, a 76 mph curveball, and an 83 mph slider.

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies two Saturday’s ago and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).

Masahiro Tanaka was knocked around in Game 2 of the American League Wildcard series against Cleveland, allowing six runs on five hits over four innings, while striking out and walking three. Most of the damage was done in the first inning in which five Cleveland hitters reached base and four come around to score. He later allowed the first two batters in the fifth inning to reach base, both of whom would come around to score after he was replaced by a reliever. Tanaka was hit or miss against Tampa Bay this season, allowing two runs or fewer in two outings, while allowing six runs (five earned) in another. Overall, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (6-21, 2 2B), Mike Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (12-39, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR), Austin Meadows (5-19, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 2B, 2 HR)

Ryan Yarbrough will serve as the primary pitcher for Thursday’s contest against the Yankees and is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. It isn’t yet known whether he will get the start or pitch behind an opener. In his final outing of the regular season, Yarbrough allowed no runs on three hits while striking out four across 3-1/3 innings against the Phillies. The left-hander has been very good even though his record may not reflect that, maintaining a 2.57 ERA and a 1.76 FIP, and a 0.00 HR/9. Over his career against the Yankees, Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in six starts (20 IP).

Jordan Montgomery allowed three runs on six hits across 5-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on September 24. He struck out eight without walking a batter. The southpaw threw 88 pitches (60 strikes, 68% strike rate) in a solid outing, although he got outpitched by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Montgomery finished the regular season on a roll, posting a 4.02 ERA and an impressive 8 K/BB over his final three starts and 15-2/3 innings. The left-hander lasted all of 2/3 of an inning in his lone start against Tampa Bay this season, as he allowed four runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk on 39 pitches. All told, Montgomery is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Randy Arozarena (1-1, HR), Michael Brosseau (1-1, HR), Yandy Diaz (1-2), Manuel Margot (1-1, 2B), Austin Meadows (2-2)

Noteworthiness

— The final ALDS roster decisions have been made and outfielder Austin Meadows (oblique strain) has been activated from the Injured List ahead of the series against the Yankees. In order to make room for Meadows, 1B/3B Nate Lowe has been left off the 28-man roster.

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— Cash also decided to carry 13 pitchers on the roster, the same as a week ago for the Wildcard series. LHP Shane McClanahan has once again cracked the roster. He was added to the 40-man and the playoff roster for the Wildcard round although he did not pitch. McClanahan’s first appearance would be his MLB debut. He can work multiple innings.

José Alvarado (lat strain) has not been activated, and left-hander Josh Fleming was again left off, suggesting that Blake Snell would pitch in a game five situation, or that the Rays would go with a bullpen game if there is a deciding contest.

— For once, the Rays will actually play prime-time baseball.

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — a postseason series preview

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Headgear or neck gaiter … it’s all somewhat similar for Joey Wendle. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After collecting one last series sweep this past weekend — the seventh on the season — the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they are set to play in the best of three Wildcard series, starting Tuesday. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Orioles over the weekend.

Tampa Bay enters its second consecutive postseason 20 games over .500 and with the best record in the American League at 40-20 (which extrapolates to a 108-54 record across a 162 game season). Meanwhile, Toronto clinched the final AL playoff spot and finished the season eight games behind the Rays in the loss column (equivalent to a 22 game gap in a 162 game season).

Despite how unfair you may think that this season’s playoff bracket might be — and let’s be honest, it is ridiculous that the best team in the American League will be facing the number eight seed in a Wildcard series — that’s neither here nor now. Both teams will play at most three games to determine who moves on to southern California and who goes home. Yet, it is still better than the one-and-done first round of the playoffs from years past. At any rate, blink and either team could be one game shy of elimination.

The Rays are the favored team because of their pitching staff — they’ll have the advantage in all three potential games of this series when you take starters and relievers into account. What’s more, the Rays offense is marginally better — Tampa Bay managed a 109 wRC+ in 2020 while the Blue Jays performed to a 108 wRC+ — and expect Kevin Cash to deploy more hitters in advantageous positions than Charlie Montoyo, who has less roster flexibility. Put another way, as Ben Clemens (FanGraphs) writes, “Toronto has a puncher’s chance, and they have offensive stars, but those stars will have to succeed through difficult initial conditions while Tampa’s hitters face their preferred type of pitching.”

Yandy Díaz, one of Tampa Bay’s most important right-handed bats, looks ready to return for the playoffs, as does Ji-Man Choi. That gives Kevin Cash the ability to play Díaz and Mike Brosseau on the infield corners, with an all right-handed outfield of Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe against Matt Shoemaker and Robbie Ray, both of whom are better against southpaw hitters. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, both Diaz and Choi tend to stabilize the team’s free-swinging ways.

Diaz had a .428 on-base percentage before a hamstring injury sidelined him, but he also changes the look of the Tampa Bay lineup. When he was gone, the walks for the team went down (11.5% walk for the team pre-injury, 9.6% after) and the strikeouts went up by a significant margin (24.2% pre-Diaz injury, 31.1% after). Ji-Man Choi’s ability to work at-bats also could help significantly, and would take pressure off several players who moved up in the lineup in their absence.

— Neil Solondz

This series will likely come down to which team out pitches the other. The Rays boast the fourth-lowest ERA when you adjust for their home stadium, thanks in part to the core starters who are fully stretched out. Toronto, on the other hand, is 18th in park-adjusted ERA. And yes, that is including starters Matt Shoemaker and  Hyun-jin Ryu, both of whom gave Tampa Bay’s hitters fits this season.

After the starters, Cash will turn things over to The Stable, his highest-leverage relievers — Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, John Curtiss, and Diego Castillo — who combined for a 1.17 ERA and 2.95 FIP this season. They struck out 32.85% of the batters they faced. Anderson in particular performed to a 0.55 ERA and a 1.35 FIP on the season while striking out a disgusting 44.8% of his opponents and walking just three total batters across 16-1/3 innings of work. Bear in mind too, Cash can turn to Ryan Yarbrough, Ryan Sherriff, Ryan Thompson, or Aaron Loup as he sees fit.

Still, Toronto finished the season playing its best baseball, winning four consecutive ball-games against the Yankees and Orioles before dropping the season finale. Even so, they also went 5-5 over the final 10 games of the season. For their part, the Rays also finished the season strong, winning four in a row, and eight of their last 10.

Be that as it may, the Blue Jays were tough competitors against the Rays this season. Eight of the 10 games between the two clubs were decided by just one or two runs. And even though Tampa Bay won 60% of the matchups, they went 4-3 against the Jays at the Trop and were outscored by four runs in total.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), and Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 4.71 ERA), Hyun-jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (4-3, 2.70 ERA).

Blake Snell gave up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out nine against the Mets last Tuesday. After keeping the ball in the yard in both of his prior two starts, Snell couldn’t keep the streak going Tuesday, as both Robinson Cano and Yonder Alonso took him deep for solo shots. That was enough offense to back Seth Lugo, who outdueled Snell by allowing only two runs (one earned) over 6-1/3 innings. Even so, Snell matched his season-high in strikeouts, with the southpaw racking up 22 swinging strikes among his 108 pitches (67 strikes, 62% strike rate, 33% SwStr%). The left-hander allowed two runs across 7-2/3 innings against Toronto this season (two outings) for a 2.35 ERA. Overall, Snell is 4-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 13 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Matt Shoemaker allowed one run on three hits and two walks across three innings on Monday against the Yankees. He struck out one. It was a short start for Shoemaker, as he was only built up to throw a maximum of 60 pitches after being held out since August 21 with a lat strain. He was able to log three innings on 54 pitches, allowing an RBI single to Gio Urshela in the second inning. The finesse right-hander is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts (15 innings) against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (3-4), Brandon Lowe (3-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Glasnow allowed solo shots to Andres Gimenez and Dominic Smith, but he was otherwise dominant. The right-hander has won three consecutive starts and five of his last six outings. He enters the postseason with a respectable 4.08 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB across 57-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

Hyun-jin Ryu allowed five hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings on Thursday against the Yankees. He struck out four. The veteran left-hander came through with another dazzling effort to clinch a playoff berth for Toronto. Ryu heads into the postseason with a 2.69 ERA and a 4.24 K/BB through 67 innings. Ryu is 0-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchup: Yoshi Tsutsugo (1-4, HR)

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies on Saturday and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%). Morton is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.

Taijuan Walker retired all nine batters he faced before giving way to the bullpen on Friday. He struck out four. With an eye on setting up his postseason rotation, Charlie Montoyo pulled Walker after only 42 pitches (28 strikes, 67% strike rate), denying the right-hander a chance at his fifth win of the season. This came after he struck out eight Phillies in his previous start. Since joining the Jays, Walker has posted a stellar 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.72 K/BB over 26-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard 86 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph splitter with a ton of backspin, a 93 mph sinker, and a 75 mph curveball with exceptional bite. Walker is 0-0 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have announced that Kevan Smith, Ryan Sherriff and Josh Fleming did not make the Wildcard round roster, although they are still in the playoff pool and eligible for future rounds. Additionally, they have have formally announced that Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Díaz have been activated and are on the playoff roster. Shane McClanahan has also been selected and will make his big-league debut in the postseason. Sean Gilmartin has been designated for assignment to make room the on the 40-man roster.


— Let’s Get Wild!

— By the by, Dave and Andy on the radio side will be calling the games for Tampa Bay.

— …Lest I forget

https://twitter.com/TriciaWhitaker/status/1310612027849797632?s=20

— And finally