X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

TNWN: Rays vs. Mets — a series preview

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Ryan Yarbrough was a hard-luck loser on Sunday, allowing two runs across seven-plus innings while striking out eight.

After winning four out of five games in Baltimore in the penultimate road series of the regular season, the Tampa Bay Rays took the train north to New York where they will take on the Mets in a three-game series, starting Monday night. The Rays are attempting to secure an AL East division title which could happen in this series. The Mets, who dropped two of three to Atlanta, are looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Tampa Bay enters play 16 games over .500, in first place in the division over the Yankees by 3-1/2 games, and with a magic number of three to clinch an AL East title with six games left to play.

As I mentioned in the previous series preview, the Rays haven’t been what one would call an offensive juggernaut over the last six series, although things are continuing to trend upward for the team … even if that rate of change is at a glacial pace. They are starting to get “lucky” again — as it relates to BABIP — when they put the ball in play, while their OBP (.320, up from .317) and SLG (.425, up from .413) improved from the series against Washington to the most recent one. They are still striking out at an alarming clip, although they have been able to reduce their K% from 30.5% to an almost unperceivable 29.9%.

Meanwhile, the Mets are, by in large, outperforming their season numbers, especially when you look at their wRC+ — New York is performing at an 18% greater clip than their season average (143 wRC+ vs 125 wRC+). Even so, the Mets are 5-5 over their last 10 games, and 9-11 over their last 20. They are going to need a remarkable finish to qualify for the playoffs. The Mets are 2-1/2 games back of the eighth seed with only seven games remaining. what’s more, they are 12-15 are at Citi Field this season.

This is the first meeting between the two since 2018 when the Rays took two-of-three and outscored the Mets 13-5.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will roll out Josh Fleming (3-0, 3.47 ERA) — who will pitch behind opener Pete Fairbanks (5-3, 2.74 ERA) — Blake Snell (4-1, 3.05 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (4-1, 4.21 ERA). Luis Rojas will counter with Jacob deGrom (4-1, 2.09 ERA), Seth Lugo (2-3, 4.34 ERA), and Steven Matz (0-5, 9.79 ERA).

Pete Fairbanks allowed two hits and recorded two strikeouts over one scoreless inning of work. The right-hander labored through a 27-pitch frame, but ultimately, he did enough to come through unscathed and became the pitcher of record when the Rays rallied for four runs in the home half of the inning.

Josh Fleming allowed one hit and one walk over 3-2/3 scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Nationals. He struck out two. The southpaw was set to follow opener Pete Fairbanks, but he ended up entering as the third pitcher of the day. Still, it was a strong rebound outing for Fleming, who had given up seven runs in his previous two turns. He now maintains a 3.47 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 3.6 K/BB through 23-1/3 innings on the season.

Jacob deGrom exited his last start against the Phillies with a right hamstring spasm. The 32-year-old was removed after allowing three runs over two innings due to the injury. The severity of the injury remains unclear. deGrom relies primarily on a whiffy 99 mph four-seam fastball with slightly less natural movement than typical and a hard 93 mph worm-killer slider, while also mixing in a whiffy 91 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone. This season, the Mets have lost just two games he has started, so it likely will be a tough slog for the Rays. deGrom is 0-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B), Hunter Renfroe (3-9, 2B)

Blake Snell allowed one run on two hits and a walk over 5-1/3 innings against the Orioles on Thursday. He struck out four. Snell was in line for his fifth win of the season in an eventual 3-1 victory, but after he exited the game with a runner on second and one out, Diego Castillo allowed the inherited runner to score. Snell tossed 73 pitches (47 strikes, 64% strike rate) in the strong outing, and carries a 3.05 ERA and a 3.6 K/BB through 44-1/3 innings into his final start of the regular season, on Tuesday. Snell is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start (7-1/3 IP) against the Mets.

Seth Lugo allowed six runs on eight hits and no walks across 1-2/3 innings against the Phillies on Thursday. He struck out three. Lugo entered the game having posted a 2.65 ERA over 17 innings since joining the starting rotation on August 25, although he was unable to tame Philadelphia’s bats. The right-hander surrendered four home runs in the brutal outing, two of which came against Bryce Harper. In only 1-2/3 innings of work, Lugo yielded a season-worst eight hits and saw his season ERA balloon to 4.34. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball and a 94 mph sinker with slight arm-side run and slightly above average velocity, while also mixing in a 79 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, an 88 mph slider with less than expected depth, and an extremely hard ground ball inducing 88 mph changeup. He has never faced the Rays. Key Matchup: Manuel Margot (5-6, 2B)

Tyler Glasnow got the start Friday against former Ray Alex Cobb and battled, allowing one run on four hits (one home run) and two walks while fanning 10 across five innings on 95 pitches (64 strikes, 67% strike rate, 20% SwStr%) en route to his fourth win of the season.

Glasnow, however, really had to work for his outs, using 50 pitches over the first two frames. The right-hander had a runner at second with one out in the first inning, then really did some heavy lifting in the second. He loaded the bases on a walk sandwiched around a pair of singles. However, Glasnow struck out Bryan Holaday and Andrew Velazquez, then got Cedric Mullins to fly to left, keeping Baltimore off the board.

Getting out of the second inning was a big step from me. Good growth moment, like Kyle would say. I felt, like, calm … nothing sped up.

— Tyler Glasnow

The right-hander’s only mistake of the night came in the bottom of the fourth when he allowed an Austin Hays solo shot to begin the frame. Yet, Glasnow struck out the side afterward (as well as in the first) and surrendered nothing else. Glasnow came into Friday’s contest averaging 14.2 K/9 and raised it to 14.6 by the time his night was over. He again lowered his ERA, this time to 4.21 (3.47 FIP), and maintains an impressive 3.95 K/BB across 51-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA in five career outings (two starts) against the Mets.

Steven Matz allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out five across 2-2/3 innings against Atlanta on Friday. It was Matz’s first time pitching since he was activated from the Injured List Sunday, and it was his first start since August 15. The rust was clearly evident as he allowed eight hits (including two home runs) and three walks to the first 16 batters he faced. Matz’s outing makes him the third consecutive Mets starter to fail to go at least three innings after both Jacob deGrom (hamstring) and Seth Lugo were pulled before the third inning in their respective outings. The southpaw owns a 9.79 ERA to go along with a 3.33 K/BB across 26-2/3 frames this season. Matz relies primarily on a blazing 95 mph sinker that generates a lot of swings and misses and a firm 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, while also mixing in a 78 mph curveball with sharp downward bite. He is 0-1 with a 1.42 ERA in one career start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Manuel Margot (2-2, 3B, HR), Hunter Renfroe (1-1, 2B)

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview, part three

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Josh Fleming will get the start on Thursday against the Red Sox.

After an ugly 0-2 series in Washington, followed by the off-day on Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays return home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will start a four-game series against the Red Sox on Thursday. Boston is coming off of a doubleheader/series split against the Phillies.

The Rays enter play 13 games above .500 and with a 100% chance of a playoff berth according to FanGraphs. They have a magic number of 12 to make playoffs, and 15 to win AL East.

Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back from a small rough patch, having lost three of their last four games, while Boston has had a frustrating season, although they have won three of the last five contests. The Rays still lead the AL East, but they only have a four-game cushion over Toronto. The offense has really dipped over the last five games, as the team has batted just .195 and stranded 34 runners on base.

The Rays have been effectively pitched to over the last few series resulting in a lot of weak contact and a jump in strikeouts from the likes of Willy Adames, Brandon Lowe, and Austin Meadows (among others). There, however, has been some bad luck at play too; over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay has posted a .274 BABIP — 16 points lower than their season average of .290.

Contrast that with Boston, which has outperformed the Rays over the last 14 days (122 wRC+ vs 102 wRC+). Yet, the Red Sox have gone just 5-9 over that stretch largely because a pitching staff that is, frankly, total crap. Boston’s corps of arms maintain a 6.73 ERA and 6.03 FIP since August 29.

The Rays are 5-1 in the season series with the Red Sox and boast a +19 run differential. Put another way, Tampa Bay has scored 7.83 runs per game (RPG) this season against Boston, while relinquishing an average of 4.67 RPG. In an ideal world, the Red Sox could be the cure for the Rays offensive malaise with 17 games left to play.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will lean on Josh Fleming (3-0, 3.52 ERA), Blake Snell (3-1, 3.74 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.35 ERA), and Charlie Morton (1-2, 4.94 ERA). Ron Roenicke is expected to counter with Mike Kickham (1-0, 5.40 ERA), pitchers to be named before Friday and Saturday’s contests, and Martín Pérez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) in the series finale.

Josh Fleming got the start in Friday’s contest against the Marlins and allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings and 73 pitches (45 strikes, 62% strike rate, 5 swinging strikes, 9% SwStr%). He struck out two and did not issue a walk. It wasn’t Fleming’s best performance — he gave up a pair of homers to a pair of former Rays, Corey Dickerson and Jesus Aguilar — yet the offense and the relief corps picked him up and carried Fleming to his third win of the season. He is a contact pitcher, which leaves the door open for some flareups, but Fleming maintains good control, so he, ideally, will make some adjustments before his next start.

Mike Kickham pitched two scoreless innings Saturday against Toronto, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out four. Kickham entered the game with Boston down a run, and they responded by scoring twice in the bottom of the ninth inning and giving him his first big league win. It was an improvement over his first appearance of the season when he allowed three runs in three innings versus the Braves. Kickham relies primarily on an  86 mph cutter and a 79 mph curveball, while also mixing in a 90 mph four-seam fastball.

Blake Snell got the start against the Marlins on Saturday and looked to continue his success against the Marlins. And in the early goings, it looked like that would be the case as the southpaw fanned six, and allowed just one hit and a walk over the first three innings. However, things changed in the fourth when Jesus Aguilar walked for the second time in the game, and Brian Anderson — who had been 0-for-14 against Tampa Bay this season — doubled to right-center. Lewis Brinson struck out on a fastball, but the ball went off Michael Perez’s glove for a passed ball, allowing Aguilar to score and Anderson to move into third.

The Marlins extended their lead in the fifth when Aguilar hit a one-out flare to right, then went to second on Anderson’s grounder to first. Snell was able to force the next batter, Brinson, to ground into the shift, yet Brandon Lowe sailed his throw to first, which went into the Rays dugout, scoring Aguilar. The infield hit and the throwing error, which came with Anderson at third, plated a run. Miami wasn’t done. Two pitches later, former Ray Corey Dickerson homered to left-center, capping the rally. Dickerson is now 3-for-16 this season against his former team, and all three hits have been long balls.

Snell finished the frame, which ultimately ended his night. All told, he allowed six hits and two walks while striking out eight. He was charged with five runs (four earned) in his first loss of the season.

As dominant as Snell has been to start games, he has struggled in the middle innings, with Snell entering Saturday’s contest with an ugly 11.25 ERA in the fourth inning — a trend that continued Saturday.

I need to be better, that’s just the bottom line. I’m happy with how I feel, I’m happy with how my pitches are working, I’m happy with how I’m learning, I’m happy with how I’m watching video and seeing what I should do and then doing it for the most part. There’s a lot of good takeaways, but I have to put this team in a spot to win and I gotta give them more innings, because I know I can do that, and I know that’s very attainable.

I just have to be more ready to throw that first pitch with intent. It’s me. It’s not physical. I can throw strikes any time I want. It’s 100 percent me, and I have to do a better job of that. I’m going to. I feel really good, man. I really do feel good. It’s going to start going my way, I know it is, just with all the work I’ve been putting in.

I just have to be in the zone and compete in the zone, because my stuff plays, and I know it does. I just have to do it. That’s what I’m looking forward to in my next start on Friday. I’m going to learn a lot, I’m going to get better, and on Friday we’ll see what I learned and what I didn’t learn. I’m looking forward to that.

— Blake Snell

In 11 starts against the Red Sox, Snell is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA. He blanked Boston across five innings on August 12 while striking out six.

TBA

Tyler Glasnow battled a migraine in Sunday’s game against the Marlins. Glasnow allowed three runs on four hits and three walks across 5-1/3 innings. He struck out nine on 105 pitches. He has now struck out at least eight in each of his last five starts and will take a 4.35 ERA into his start against Boston on Friday. The Red Sox beat up on Glasnow on August 13, tagging him five runs on eight hits and two walks, although they struck out eight times.

TBA

Charlie Morton got the start for Tampa Bay, and even though he allowed three runs on four hits and a walk over five innings of work, he took a big step forward in his second start off the Injured List. Morton — who went two-plus innings and threw 36 pitches in his last turn on the mound — worked five efficient innings on Monday. Morton threw 45 of 57 pitches for strikes (79% strike rate) and retired his final seven batters. The right-hander stymied Boston back on August 4, allowing just one run on five hits (including a solo home run) across 5-2/3 strong innings. Morton struck out five.

Martín Pérez coughed up four runs on five hits and six walks over five innings against the Phillies. He struck out two. The southpaw’s command was almost nonexistent in this one, as Pérez also uncorked a wild pitch and threw only 47 of his 86 pitches for strikes (55% strike rate). The southpaw maintains a 4.40 ERA and a 1.29 K/BB through 47 innings on the season. In his last start against the Rays, Pérez allowed two runs on three hits (including a home run) and two walks across 5-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Mike Brosseau (3-7, 2 2B, HR), Brandon Lowe (2-5), Kevan Smith (1-3, 2B)

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part two

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Pete Fairbanks and the Rays shuffled off from Buffalo like…

After taking two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend in Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Rays shuffled down to the Bronx — the belly of the beast — where they will take on Major League Baseball’s wealthiest whiners, the New York Yankees. The Yankees are coming off a four-game sweep against the Red Sox; their second consecutive sweep.

The Rays enter play five games over .500 with a 97.6% chance of a playoff berth (per FanGraphs) with 37 games left to play.

Though Tampa Bay did not score the trademark two-out runs or drive in runs with runners in scoring position, as they had against Boston, the Rays still found a to outslug Toronto and put two more tallies in the win column. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, the Rays offense — which has been very good over the last week — is going to get even better.

Brandon Lowe has performed at an elite level (209 OPS plus and 1.142 OPS overall). Willy Adames and Austin Meadows also have performed extremely well. However, Meadows is still returning to form after missing three weeks with COVID in summer camp. Ji-Man Choi is still finding his stride and the same could be said for Yoshi Tsutsugo. Yandy Diaz is getting on base, but still hasn’t shown the power he’s capable of and still said over the weekend he feels he can be better. The catchers have been among the bottom three in offense. While it’s not expected they will be elite, performing at league average over the next six weeks compared to other receivers would certainly be a boost.

— Neil Solondz

Over the last 14 days, the Rays have not only matched the Yankees in offensive production but they have also outpaced them in many aspects of the game including OBP (.368 vs .364), SLG (.488 vs .486), OPS (.856 vs .850), ISO (.211 vs .203), and wRC+ (136 vs 132). Whether that level of production is sustainable over the long haul fails to be seen. What should be clear though, Tampa Bay is fully capable of wreaking havoc on opposing pitchers.

It should help Tampa Bay that Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Aaron Judge (as a result, the Yankees alleged, of playing on turf at the Trop) are on the shelf due to the injury bug. Although, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) asserts, maybe not enough to get overconfident.

We know how hungry they’re going to be, so we’ve got to be on our A-game. Make sure we give them everything we’ve got, make sure we can get a couple more (wins) out of there.

— Blake Snell

An improved offense doesn’t mean it will be easy in the Bronx. Even though the Rays have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, winning at Yankee Stadium has been hard for them overall. They are 13-35 in the Bronx over the past five seasons, including 2-8 last season. What’s more, the Yankees are 9-0 at home thus far. Still, Tampa Bay has the opportunity to prove its mettle over the next three games which definitely will be contentious.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 7.04 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale. Aaron Boone will counter with Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31 ERA), Gerrit Cole (4-0, 2.76 ERA), and James Paxton (1-1, 7.04 ERA).

Blake Snell got the start for Tampa Bay, tasked with throwing at least five innings if only to save the beleaguered bullpen. In turn, the left-hander posted in his longest, and most effective, outing of the season. Snell tossed five shutout innings, scattering four hits and walking none while striking out six on 70 pitches (48 strikes, 69% strike rate). He threw 13 of 18 first-pitch strikes, coaxed 14 swings and misses (29% whiff rate), and did not allow a runner beyond second base.

Looking forward to being a starting pitcher again and getting away from the opener role. I felt like Blake Snell. I finally feel healthy.

— Blake Snell

Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs on five hits and two walks and struck out three against Atlanta on Wednesday. The right-hander’s pitch count has slowly but steadily increased — he threw 66 pitches (42 strikes, 64% strike rate) in his four-inning start. Tanaka has a 2.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts across 11-2/3 innings this season. He should be able to throw 70 pitches on Tuesday. Tanaka threw five scoreless innings against Tampa Bay on August 7, allowing just one hit while striking out five. Overall, the 31-year-old is 10-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 19 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-16, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed five earned runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out eight across four innings against the Red Sox on Thursday. Glasnow was staked to 10 runs, but he failed to pitch efficiently enough to qualify for a win. To his credit, he kept the ball in the yard and racked up strikeouts. However, Glasnow allowed five extra-base hits and regularly fell behind batters, running up his pitch count. Glasnow has an incredible 15.9 K/9 across 15-1/3 innings this season, yet that has been overshadowed by a 5.9 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9. He also has yet to complete five innings of work in any of his four outings. Glasnow gave up four runs on five hits and three walks against the Yankees on August 8. He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees.

Gerrit Cole allowed one run on four hits and no walks while striking out eight across seven innings against the Red Sox on Friday. In his first start since a short outing against the Rays, Cole stifled Boston’s offense — his best outing since he signed a monster deal with New York in the offseason. In five starts this season, the right-hander carries a 2.76 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across 29-1/3 innings. The Rays tagged Cole for three runs on six hits and a walk across 4-2/3 innings on August 8. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in five regular-season starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (6-13, 3 2B, HR), Yandy Díaz (3-9, HR), José Martínez (4-11, 2B, HR), Joey Wendle (3-12, 2B)

TBA

James Paxton allowed three runs on six hits and one walk while striking out two across five innings on Friday. Far from dominant, Paxton needed 83 pitches to make it through five frames and yielded three runs. The left-hander has allowed exactly three earned runs in each of his four starts this season, though he lasted a combined four innings in his first two outings as opposed to the 11-1/3 combined innings he has pitched in his last two outings. Paxton was fantastic against Tampa Bay for most of his start on August 9, however, the Rays dinged him up toward the end of his outing, tagging him for three runs on four hits including two home runs. Overall, Paxton is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.

Noteworthiness

— Charlie Morton is expected to throw another bullpen today and could rejoin the rotation during the upcoming homestand.

— Oliver Drake (bicep tendinitis) also is expected to resume playing catch after being shut down for a week.

— Aroldis Chapman (COVID-19) has been activated from the Injured List. He pitched the ninth inning of yesterday’s 6-3 win over the Red Sox.

LBWMF: Rays win third straight against Boston, 9-5

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Blake Snell was fantastic through five innings on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays jumped out to an 8-0 lead on Wednesday, which gave Blake Snell all the run support he would need during a fantastic five-inning outing. And while the Red Sox made things interesting in the eighth inning, the Rays held on to win their third consecutive in Boston, and fifth overall.

Blake Snell got the start for Tampa Bay, tasked with throwing at least five innings if only to save the beleaguered bullpen. In turn, the left-hander posted in his longest, and most effective, outing of the season. Snell tossed five shutout innings, scattering four hits and walking none while striking out six on 70 pitches (48 strikes, 69% strike rate). He threw 13 of 18 first-pitch strikes, coaxed 14 swings and misses (29% whiff rate), and did not allow a runner beyond second base.

Looking forward to being a starting pitcher again and getting away from the opener role. I felt like Blake Snell. I finally feel healthy.

— Blake Snell

The Rays rewarded Snell by scoring all the runs he would need in the first three innings of the contest, although they were also able to add three more runs in the fourth and ninth innings.

For the second consecutive night, Tampa Bay scored in the opening frame. Brandon Lowe singled to right-center with one out against right-hander Kenny Powers Zack Godley and went to third when Diaz hit a single off the glove of Michael Chavis at first. Ji-Man Choi walked, loading the bases, and before Joey Wendle hit a sharp grounder to first. The ball got stuck in Chavis’ mitt, and his only play was at first allowing Lowe scored for an early lead.

Willy Adames opened the second against Godley with his first homer of the season, a blast to right-center just to the right of the triangle. After Kevin Pillar lost a towering fly ball in the lights — off the bat of Austin Meadows — for a single, Lowe drilled his team-leading fourth homer to right, doubling the lead to four.

Then in the top of the next inning, Ji-Man Choi doubled down the right-field line before Yoshi Tsutsugo drilled a two-run homer to right for a commanding six-run lead. It was Yoshi’s second homer of the season and his first at Fenway.

The Rays chased Powers Godley in the fourth, and it all started with Meadows who earned a walk. Lowe doubled off the Monstah, allowing Meadows to move into third. He crossed the plate on Díaz’s RBI base hit. Ryan Weber took the mound in relief and got Choi to ground into a twin killing, although Lowe came home on the play for the eighth run for Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, Aaron Slegers took over for Snell in the sixth and tossed a pair of scoreless innings … although things changed quickly for him in the eighth after he allowed six consecutive hits. The luck dragons were with Jackie Bradley Jr., who hit a dribbler just wide of the mound for an infield hit, and José Peraza hit a single to left. Pillar followed with his fourth hit of the night, a base loading single to right. After Jonathan Araúz singled to left, putting the Red Sox on the board, J.D. Martinez launched a grand slam over the Monstah to cut the deficit to just three runs.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash had seen enough after Tsu-Wei Lin reached on an infield hit, and called upon the services of Nick Anderson. The right-hander struck out the next two batters before Alex Verdugo grounded single to right. Anderson, however, got Bradley Jr. to ground out to short to end the threat.

Meadows capped the scoring with a leadoff homer in the ninth, his first long ball of the season. Finally, Pete Fairbanks tossed a perfect inning to finish off the win.

The New What Next

The Rays will go for a four-game sweep on Thursday with Tyler Glasnow (0-2, 3.78 ERA) on the mound. He’ll start opposite of left-hander Kyle Hart, who will make his big league debut.

Tyler Glasnow allowed four runs on five hits in just 2-2/3 innings of work on Saturday, striking out five while walking three. Glasnow matched Gerrit Cole with a pair of scoreless frames to start the game, getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the second inning, but he allowed a two-run homer to Mike Ford and a two-run double to Gio Urshela in the third, forcing him from the game. Glasnow now owns a 5.56 ERA through his first three starts, with a 2.38:1 K:BB and a 30.0% HR/FB rate. Glasnow is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox, and 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA at Fenway.

Kyle Hart is a tall southpaw that is tough on left-handed hitters. He works his five-pitch mix — an 89 mph four-seam fastball, an 86 mph cutter, a low-80’s slider, an 82 mph changeup, and a 78 mph curveball — well, and boasts solid command and control. All of his secondary pitches play off of his four-seamer.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Red Sox part two — a series preview

Rays 8/13/20 Starting Lineup

    null
  1. Brosseau 3B
  2. Martinez 1B
  3. Diaz DH
  4. Renfroe RF
  5. Lowe 2B
  6. Adames SS
  7. Margot CF
  8. Tsutsugo LF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— After being diagnosed with a UCL sprain, which I wrote about yesterday, it would appear that right-hander Andrew Kittredge is headed for the operating table. A UCL sprain, by definition, is a stretching or tearing of ligaments. Since having Tommy John surgery this late in the year could force Kittredge to miss all of the 2021 season, he could first opt to try a program of rest and rehab.

— After throwing two plus innings last night, right-hander Aaron Slegers was optioned to the Rays alternate site in Port Charlotte. To take his place on the roster, and give the team a fresh arm, the Rays selected southpaw Anthony Banda.

— Good (injury) news for a change…Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), Brent Honeywell, who underwent a decompression procedure on his right ulnar nerve on May 20 in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, threw 15 pitches in a live BP session on Tuesday. It was the first time Honeywell had thrown to hitters since April 2019.

Rays vs Yankees — a series preview; roster moves

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Has not happened often enough.

After splitting a short two-game series against Red Sox, following a 5-0 loss in the finale on Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays unwelcome the New York Yankees into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field on Friday for a four-game set, which includes a doubleheader on Saturday. The Yankees are coming off an awkwardly scheduled series split against the Phillies.

Just when it appeared the Rays had put their troubles behind them, the Red Sox exited the Trop having handed Tampa Bay its sixth loss in seven tries. And while Ryan Yarbrough cruised through the first few innings of Wednesday’s finale — pounding the strike zone to the tune of a 74% strike rate — Boston tagged the lefty for five runs. Juxtapose that with Martín Pérez — the southpaw that couldn’t find the strike zone even if he walked the ball into Christian Vazquez’s glove (48 of 91 strikes, 53% strike rate) — who blanked Tampa Bay across five innings of work. Let that sink in. Baseball is weird.

Simply put, the Rays have not played well, although Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) gave reflective pause and reason for hope yesterday, writing:

That’s not to excuse the 5-and-7 record or the poor play. Certainly, the club has not played well to this point in any phase. To play poorly and still be 5-and-7 is fortunate. Probably of greater concern would be if the team was 5-and-7 and playing well. Hopefully, a day off allows this group to catch its breath and start playing the game it’s capable of.

Last year when the Rays bounced back from that 5-and-8 run, they went 20-and-8 down the stretch. There are still 48 games left this year, and the core of that talented group, albeit under unique circumstances, is still in place. Plus playoffs are expanded. Despite the tough stretch, the Rays are a half-game behind Baltimore and Toronto.

— Neil Solondz

For their part, the Yankees have looked like the best team in baseball thus far. They have the best record in the American League and they won eight of their first nine games, due in part to their slugging ways — New York has hit 24 homers in the first 12 games of the season. In addition, New York is already multiple games ahead of any other division rival in the standings, so it would appear they are primed to blow the division title race wide open within the first few weeks of the season.

As the saying goes, good pitching defeats good hitting, and it will be incumbent on the Rays pitching staff to do just that this weekend. Meanwhile, the team has gotten a bit luckier at the plate; their .270 BABIP (including 10 point increase from the series vs. Baltimore up to now) speaks to that. However, a 19.6 point difference between the two team’s wRAA (weighted runs above average) speaks to the fact that Tampa Bay has been largely ineffective this season, especially compared to a team that hasn’t.

Opposing pitchers are well aware of the Rays’ tendency to hunt fastballs and expand on offspeed pitches, which results in a lot of weak contact. José Martínez, Hunter Renfroe, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Mike Zunino, and Kevin Kiermaier have made hard contact less than half the time — the team’s overall hard-hit rate is under 41% — so expect Masahiro Tanaka, Gerrit Cole, and James Paxton to follow the same playbook this weekend unless the Rays show they are relying on a different and effective approach at the plate. If Kevin Cash has to plug different players into the lineup, so be it.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will throw Blake Snell (0-0, 5.40 ERA), a pitcher to be named before one of Saturday’s contests, Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.12 ERA), and Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.52 ERA) this weekend. Aaron Boone will Counter with Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 3.38 ERA), a pitcher to be named before one of Saturday’s contests, Gerrit Cole (3-0, 2.54 ERA), and James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA).

Blake Snell got the start on Friday in Baltimore and was very good until he grooved a pair of hittable fastballs over the plate. The lefty allowed three runs on four hits over three-plus innings while striking out four on 53 pitches (37 strikes, 70% strike rate). Snell appeared to be in complete control for three scoreless frames, throwing 14-of-14 first-pitch strikes, yet three consecutive extra-base hits (Renato Nunez double and homers by Anthony Santander and Pedro Severino in the fourth inning) brought Snell’s night to an abrupt end.

Following the ball game, Snell beat himself up over the pitch sequencing that led to the two homers. Yet, there were more than a few things in which the lefty was content.

Overall, first-pitch strikes I’m happy with. No walks, I’m happy with. The way I threw the ball, happy with. The way my arm feels, I’m happy with.

— Blake Snell

Snell’s velocity also increased from 94.3 last Sunday to 95.6 last night. He was dominant at times against the O’s, retiring nine in a row following a first-inning double by Hanser Alberto.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and one walk across 2-2/3 innings on Saturday against Boston. He struck out three. The veteran right-hander wasn’t especially sharp Saturday, but it was a solid performance given that he missed most of Summer Camp after being hit in the head by a line drive during a live batting practice session. Tanaka will continue ramping up toward his traditional workload, so he should be able to reach around 60 pitches on Friday. Tanaka is always tough on the Rays due to his repertoire which boasts a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 85 mph splitter with slight arm-side fade, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider. He is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-14, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (9-34, 2B, 3B, HR), Joey Wendle (3-11, 2B), Mike Zunino (6-21, 2 2B)

Tyler Glasnow allowed two earned runs on three hits and three walks with five strikeouts across 4-2/3 on Saturday. Glasnow still has some work to do on his control, however, the right-hander’s 7.6 feet of average extension from the rubber to the plate is tops in the big-leagues, and his four-pitch arsenal — including a blazing upper 90’s four-seamer — makes life difficult on opposing hitters. Glasnow struggled Saturday with location, although he offered a glimpse of how dominant he can be by punching out nine and allowing just one earned run on a solo shot against Atlanta in his first start of the season. Glasnow is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in two career starts against New York.

Gerrit Cole allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out four across six innings Monday against the Phillies. There was a lengthy rain delay after Cole had finished six innings, and he did not get sent out for the seventh. The right-hander threw 91 pitches and 58 for strikes (64% strike rate), although didn’t have his best command in this one. Cole relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball and an 89 mph slider, while also mixing in an 83 mph curveball. He is 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in four regular-season starts against the Rays, although we probably shouldn’t overlook what he did against them in the 2019 postseason. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-10, 2B), Yandy Díaz (2-6), José Martínez (3-8, 2B), Joey Wendle (3-10).

TBA

TBA

Charlie Morton got the start for the Rays and allowed just one earned run on five hits and no walks while punching out five across 5-2/3 innings. The right-hander threw 65 of 93 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) and coaxed 14 swings and misses (22% whiff rate). Morton held Boston’s lineup in check, with the only major damage coming on a solo homer by Mitch Moreland. Most importantly, Morton’s velocity ticked up, as his fastball sat between 93 and 94 miles per hour for much of his start — an increase of one to two mph from his previous two outings — while hitting 95 mph on a few occasions. Morton was able to lower his ERA to 5.52 (4.09 FIP) across 14-2/3 total innings this season. His 7:1 K:BB suggests even better results are on the way.

James Paxton allowed five runs (three earned) on seven hits and struck out four across three innings on Sunday. The southpaw labored through his second start of the season, needing 62 pitches (45 strikes, 73% strike rate) to complete the three innings. He’s surrendered eight runs (six earned) across two short starts this season. While Paxton has just walked one batter, he continues to deal with a drop in velocity — he hovered around 91 mph with his fastball Sunday (down 4.4 mph from last season). He relies primarily on a 92 mph sinker and a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, while also mixing in a hard 79 mph knuckle curveball, an 85 mph cutter with heavy sink, and an 81 mpg changeup that dives down out of the zone. He is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Yandy Diaz (3-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5)

Noteworthiness

— RHP Yonny Chirinos has been placed on the 10-day Injured List with right tricep inflammation retroactive to Monday, August 3. Trevor Richards, who was on the Opening Day roster, has been recalled from Port Charlotte.

Chirinos was expected to start Saturday and made two starts, throwing 68 pitches in one start (4 IP) and 72 in the next (4-2/3 IP). As Solondz notes, velocity on all of Chirinos’ pitches was quite similar in 2020 to what it was in 2019. Chirinos did have trouble throwing his splitter in his last start.

Rays manager Kevin Cash said Chirinos felt much much better Friday and hopefully will miss just one start.

— Jose Alvarado has been placed on the paternity list and the Rays selected LHP Sean Gilmartin from the alternate training site to take his spot on the roster. To make room on the 40-man roster, outfielder Manuel Margot was reinstated from the bereavement list then placed on the COVID-19 related Injured List while he undergoes required intake testing. Margot was initially placed on the bereavement list team due to his father’s passing this week.

Cash said Alvarado should be back Saturday. In addition, if all goes well, Margot could be put back on the roster by Sunday — when the Rays are slated to face a left-hander. In the meantime, Gilmartin — husband of professional asshole Kayleigh McEnany — can provide length since he is built up to four innings or 60 pitches.