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PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays could contend in 2018

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Kevin Kiermaier is projected to perform to a 4.0 WARp in 2018. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2018 season. In spite of the trade that sent the face of the franchise to San Francisco, the projection system forecasts the Rays as the fifth best team in the American League, and third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 84 wins to 78 losses. If the Rays were to end as the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

How will the Rays fare in the East? Here are a few highlights, while a full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

Projected 2018 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 724 runs are 54 more than they plated in 2017, yet just 10 runs better than the Tigers, who are projected to end their 2018 campaign with a 68-94 record. The projected .250 BA/.309 OBP/.397 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .245 BA/.317 OBP/.422 SLG line collected by the team last season ― albeit with much less pop.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fifth fewest runs in the American League at 696 ― 14 more than the Red Sox, the Rays closest competitor in that category.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .255 is 10 points higher than last season’s batting average, while their projected .397 SLG is the lowest in the AL East.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Christian Arroyo (not Matt Duffy) spending the most time at third base, while Duffy is projected to slot in at at second base, and Brad Miller at first. Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, and Justin Williams are all projected to be promoted in 2018, however, don’t expect them to break camp with the Rays.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Wilson Ramos will to get the majority of playing time over Jesus Sucre (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Miller is projected to post a 1.1 WARp at first, although he is expected to bounce back from an abysmal 2017 to the tune of a .240 BA/.318 OBP/.407 SLG/.262 Tav.
  • Unsurprisingly, PECOTA likes Kevin Kiermaier for a 4.0 WARp in center — the strongest position for the Rays.
  • PECOTA likes Adeiny Hechavarria at short, although he is projected to post just a 0.5 WARp. Compare that to Matt Duffy, who is projected to perform to a 1.6 WARp even though he’ll only spend 10% of his playing time there.
  • Denard Span is projected to get 55% of the reps in left field, followed by newcomer Mallux Smith with 25% of the reps. The tandem is projected to combine for a 1.0 WARp.
  • Corey Dickerson’s .274 TAv that is higher than anyone else on the team, and because of it he looks to receive the most playing time at DH.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (176 IP, 3.5 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (150 IP, 0.6 WARp), Blake Snell (127 IP, 1.8 WARp), Jacob Faria (114 IP, 1.3 WARp), and Brent Honeywell (95 IP, 1.0 WARp). Nathan Eovaldi, Jose De Leon, Austin Pruitt and Ryan Yarbrough also may factor into the rotation in some capacity.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Alex Colome (closer); Dan Jennings and Ryne Stanek (setup); Chaz Roe, Andrew Kittredge, Jose Alvarado and Chih-Wei Hu (middle-relief); Matt Andriese (long relief).

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 18.5 runs above average — fourth best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (22.8 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -14.6 FRAA.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

I know this offseason has been marred with rumors of a rebuild, yet the Rays could still end the season playing relevant ball in October. A projected 84 win season — 90 or 78, thanks a six game margin of error — has got to make those of us who feel like we’ve been kicked in the guts at least optimistic for something better than what most have predicted.

Questions linger for the Rays going into the second half of the offseason

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While the Rays are still expected to deal a hurler or two, it appears that Chris Archer is off the hot-seat for the moment. (Photo Credit: Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)

40 days remain until pitchers and catchers report to camp, and all is quiet on the eastern front for the Tampa Bay Rays, at least for the moment. Talks around the league are expected to pick up as teams prepare for the start of the new season, and the Rays still have pitching depth to deal from — with Alex Colome and Jake Odorizzi the likeliest trade targets.

While Chris Archer was dangled on the market, it appears that his spot on the trade hot-seat has become cold and dusty — this in spite of a recent spate trade rumors around the Rays’ ace and Miguel Sanó … although sexual assault allegations tend to put the kibosh on things (and for good reason, seriously fuck that guy).

Make no bones about it, the Rays will enter Spring Training in the midst of a well needed reset/reboot, and likely as non-contenders in 2018 because of it. Yet a few questions lay in the wake, which Bill Chastain (MLB.com) enumerated on Sunday:

  1. Can Matt Duffy make a successful return after injuries cost him all of the 2017 season?
  2. Is Jake Bauers the answer at first base?
  3. Will Blake Snell continue on the track he followed in the second half of the 2017 season after a disappointing first half?
  4. Can Steven Souza Jr. elevate his performance to a higher level in 2018 after showing great improvement in ’17?
  5. Is Brent Honeywell a lock to find a spot in the Rays’ rotation?

My goal is to answer those questions with a little help from the experts.

…On Matt Duffy

After a wasted 2017 campaign, spent recovering from a pair of surgeries, Duffy is expected to enter Spring Training 2018 healthy and ready to compete for a spot at the hot-corner as the heir apparent to Evan Longoria. Duffy performed to a 4.9 fWAR at the hot corner in 2015, and it stands to reason that there should not be a reduction in performance at third base if he, indeed, is healthy.

Other experienced infielders like Ryan Schimpf, Daniel Robertson, Joey Wendle, and Micah Johnson could contribute in 2018.

For what it’s worth, the Rays view Wendle favorably for his history of hitting and quality glove work.

(Wendle is) really a high-quality defender and is about as reliable as they come said general manager Erik Neander.

…On Jake Bauers

The Rays have not yet named their first baseman now that Logan Morrison and Lucas Duda became free agents at the end of the season. Moreover, the direction the team takes — either toward a complete overhaul or the slow rebuild the team has been on since 2014 — will likely determine whether the Rays will sign any veteran free agents, like Mitch Moreland. Another intriguing possibility is Jake Bauers, who is already in the Rays organization at Triple-A Durham.

Bauers made a big impression on Kevin Cash during Spring Training last season, slashing .371 BA/.392 OBP/.465 SLG/.857 OPS. Bauers not only hit for power, but he also showed great plate discipline and put together quality at-bats.

He didn’t take off like many expected him to with Durham last season, although Bauers still showed a quality approach at the plate. His ability to hit the ball the opposite field also makes him a real threat.

The 22 year-old recovered from a slow start in 2017, ending his campaign with a respectable .263 BA/.368 OBP/.412 SLG/.780 OPS line, with 13 homers and 20 steals — something Cash made mention of during the Winter Meetings this past December.

You look at what Jake Bauers and Willy Adames did in Triple-A at a very, very young age, said the Rays skipper. I personally kinda like the fact that they got off to slow starts and you look at where their season ended up it was really impressive. From all reports … they really matured throughout the year. Both guys like to play a lot. They want to come up to bat in that big spot. They’re going to get to play a lot in spring training. … Solid guys.

The ever evolving Brad Miller, positionally speaking of course, could shift back to first base — the position he played at the end of 2016 — or Miller could platoon the spot with Bauers.

…On Blake Snell

It would be safe to say that Snell, who went 0-5 with a 4.85 ERA in 10 starts before the All-Star Break, had an abysmal first half last season, which resulted in a trifecta of demotions to Triple-A Durham. To be fair his stuff played well, although the southpaw struggled with command and control which prevented him from pitching deeply into ball games. Snell made a few adjustments after the break — moving to the center of the pitching rubber for one, and attacking the zone with his fastball for another — and enjoyed better results, going 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 starts.

Without Alex Cobb (and potentially Jake Odorizzi) in 2018, the team hopes Snell’s early struggles last season were an anomaly rather that the rule.

…On Steven Souza Jr.

According to Chastain:

After an injury-plagued 2016 campaign (120 games), Souza showed a lot of improvement in ’17. The power-hitting right fielder batted .239 with 30 home runs and 78 RBIs. He seemed to run out of gas late in the season, hitting .183 in August and .152 in September. The slow finish could be attributed to Souza’s not being able to fully condition himself for the season since he spent the previous offseason rehabbing from hip surgery. If he can get a little bit closer to his early months of ’17 and find more consistency, the Rays’ chances for success will be greatly enhanced.

That said, Souza and Kevin Kiermaier are locks in right and center next season, leaving a question mark hanging over left field. Both Corey Dickerson and Denard Span have become the subject of trade speculation, with one or the other potentially not getting the opportunity to attend camp in Port Charlotte.

Nothing would surprise me if I get traded or flipped or whatever the terminology is. I guess until I show up to spring training then it will probably sink in that I’m a Ray, Span told Roger Mooney (Tampa Bay Times). There are so many possibilities, but I definitely would love to put on this hometown uniform. It would be a dream come true. It was something I always imagined.

Playing devils advocate, should both players break camp at the end of March, Dickerson will likely get some playing time in left, although he’d likely be the main DH. To his credit, Span has some value to the team on the field and in the clubhouse, so the Rays could begin the season with Span in a corner outfield role.

…On Brent Honeywell

The number of open slots in the starting rotation could help determine where Honeywell starts the season. One spot opened when Cobb left for free agency, and that will likely be battled over by Honeywell, Ryan Yarbrough, Austin Pruitt and Nathan Eovaldi — the latter of which both have big league experience. The team is expected to deal at least one starter elsewhere, which would open up at least another spot in the rotation.

My gut tells me that Honeywell will start the season in Durham, where he can work on command without accruing big league service time. How much additional time he would need in Triple-A fails to be seen at them moment.

In Conclusion

Next season likely will not be pretty. The roster will be composed of players on expiring contracts and others playing out their rookie contracts with an eye toward contention in 2019 and beyond.

Chastain summed things up well, saying:

At this juncture, the Rays are solid up the middle with catcher Wilson Ramos, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, with the second-base position to be determined.

As usual, the Rays have a stable of quality pitchers in their starting rotation, though one or more of that group might be used in trades to bolster the organization. So even if the Rays are active during the remainder of the offseason, they should still have a solid group of starters for 2018 — provided they live up to expectations.

Hot-Stove: …Of trade rumors surrounding the Tampa Bay Rays

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Evan Longoria stands in the batters box during his turn at bat in the game against the Baltimore Orioles. (Photo by Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty Images)

All is quiet on the western front — at least as it relates to the Tampa Bay Rays in the Hot-Stove period — although that could change at the drop of the hat, thanks to Stu Sternberg’s rather amorphous edict to cut payroll to an unspecified level.

The team’s principal owner apparently is not budging on the unknown parameters of his initial proclamation, despite a reported windfall that all 30 MLB owners are expected to receive, thanks to the $1.58-billion sale of BAMTech to Disney.

The terms of the deal stipulate that each owner will receive a cool $50-million, and while the Rays’ benevolent owner could use that money toward fielding a competitive team in 2018, as they say, don’t count on it.

On the bright side, the Rays have already shed +$20-million in payroll, thanks to players not returning next season. Yet they still intend to trade players to offset the costs of arbitration and guaranteed deals. The team sits in a similar place payroll wise as they did at the start of the 2017 season, yet they still need to fill other spots/roles.

…And so it goes, with trade rumors swirling around Evan Longoria — I’ll touch on him in a moment — Jake Odorizzi, Alex Colome, and Chris Archer.

According to Mike Berardino (Pioneer Press) teams are not having an easy time prying prying Odorizzi out of Tampa Bay.

The Rays have let potential trade partners know they’ll have to “extend” for a shot at Odorizzi.

Colome has received a sizable amount of attention on the trade market, especially from St. Louis — whom the Rays are engaged with on multiple trade scenarios — however, a deal hasn’t yet been completed. That may indicate that some teams with interest still want to explore other options.

Tampa Bay probably would not have any trouble finding a taker for Archer thanks to his compelling peripherals, age, and team-friendly contract…but that only is if he is truly made available.

As for Longoria, the biggest cheerleader for a deal involving the face of the franchise appears to be Marc Topkin, the only beat writer in the area (besides Bill Chastain of MLB.com and Neil Solondz) for the team. Granted where there’s smoke there’s fire, although Topkin’s argument for a trade — the front office wants to deal Longoria before his 10-and-5 rights kick in this spring — has been picked up by other sports writers or outlets, which further the whispers to their respective readers. That is to say MLB Trade Rumors, among others, has based their reporting on Topkin’s word, as opposed to any credible research of their own. For his part Topkin is a credible writer, has acknowledged that Longoria could waive his 10-and-5 rights if a trade was to happen after they kick in, and until recently posed all discussions surrounding the Rays’ third-basemen in hypothetical terms.

One shouldn’t simply discount Topkin, nor should they ignore the fact that Longoria’s name probably has come up in trade discussions. But to paraphrase Solondz, To me this year is no different from any other in terms of way the way the Rays operate. If there are more rumors about a player it may mean there’s more interest in that individual.

The fact remains that the Rays have not undergone a complete roster overhaul in Sternberg’s 10+ years of ownership, so why would they start now by dealing the face of the franchise now?

As Danny Russell (DRaysBay) put it:

The only philosophically consistent aspect of a Longoria trade rumor is that the Rays front office has never said a player is untouchable. Another team is always free to offer a trade suggestion, just as the Rays are always free to laugh. To be sure, if they trade Longoria this off-season it would fundamentally change everything we know about this franchise. But nothing’s impossible.

Evan Longoria is a franchise third baseman with stellar defense on a team friendly contract. If he remains with the Rays his number will be retired in a beautiful new stadium in Ybor City. He’s not ready to let that moment slip away, and neither is the front office.

While I certainly don’t buy the whole “beautiful new stadium in Ybor City” sentiment, the rest holds up.

I don’t doubt that Topkin knows more than the rest of us when speaking in terms in the engagement of trade discussions between the Rays with other teams, which likely includes Longoria. Then again, perhaps there’s something to be said for the calm steady bleat of Chastain and Solondz.

Dare I say that Topkin might realize Longoria’s name is tantamount to clickbait, and his speculation attracts the eyes of others?

Noteworthiness

— Not to sully the name of Evan Longoria, or dampen the hopes of those who are pushing for a trade of the Rays third baseman, but as Mark Simon (ESPN) tweeted, Longoria’s peripherals have been on the slide the last few seasons. That’s not to say he isn’t a valuable player. However, the Rays likely would not receive a ransom’s loot for Longoria, if they indeed are actively shopping the face of the franchise.

Hot-Stove: Tampa Bay Rays Winter Meetings update, day five

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(Photo Credit: Yahoo Sports)

The 2017 Winter Meetings came to a conclusion Thursday morning with the Rule-5 Draft, in which the Tampa Bay Rays lost one minor leaguer, RHP Burch Smith, before heading back to sunny St. Petersburg.

The Rays, however, did not lose catcher Nick Ciuffo, who was left unprotected. Ciuffo was promoted to Double-A Montgomery after the 2016 season, and he is coming off his first complete campaign with the Biscuits. He performed to a .245 BA/.319 OBP/.385 SLG/.704 OPS line in 2017, so he clearly isn’t yet a finished product.

In the minor league portion of the Rule-5 Draft, Tampa Bay picked RHP Francisco German from the Tigers organization. German went 8-7 with a 3.26 ERA in the New York Penn League 2017, all below the full-season level. However, the Rays lost INF Riley Unroe to the Angels, OF Angel Moreno to the Cardinals, and C Rafelin Lorenzo to the Pirates.

The Rays currently have 39 players on the 40-man roster, and did not make a selection in the MLB portion of the Rule-5 Draft, indicating the team could be close to a deal.

Rays VP of Baseball Operations, Chaim Bloom, said talks remain in the advanced stages, likely with the St. Louis Cardinals — presumably for RHP Alex Colome and potentially another player. Executives from both teams left the meetings with a good feel for the pieces (potentially) made available to them by each club.

The Cardinals are also connected to Manny Machado, temporarily quelling the fears of those who do not want to see the face of the franchise, Evan Longoria, get traded away — for better or worse.

Matt Duffy has worked his way back to health and is expected to be ready to go when players report to camp this spring. Bloom told Steve Kinsella (Sports Talk Florida) it was a frustrating year for Duffy and the Rays.

He worked his tail off. He is a tremendous guy, tremendous work ethic, we missed him this year.

Read into that what you will. After all, Duffy performed to a 4.9 WAR in 2015 at third base in San Francisco — thanks to consistent hitting and solid defense — and would be the heir apparent to the position should the Rays trade Longoria. Then again Duffy is a shortstop by trade and could easily slot back into that position, where he was projected to play in 2017, or into the right side of the infield at second base.

One thing is certain, however, despite shedding +$20-million in payroll, thanks to players not returning in 2018, the Rays still intend to trade players to offset arbitration and guaranteed deals. The team sits in a similar place payroll wise as they did at the start of the 2017 season, yet they still need to fill other spots/roles.

One of the things about this week, and I think it’s always this way to some degree but this year more so, it’s a fortunate position to be in — we have a number of players that teams like, Bloom said. And that expands the amount of possibilities that pop up. So there’s not necessarily one specific thing that we’re zeroed in on. There’s a number of different possibilities that we’re trying to weigh.

The Rays, historically, have been quiet during the Winter Meetings, and things don’t typically start heating up until the period between December and February. As Bill Chastain (MLB.com) put it prior to the start of the Winter Meetings, “it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Neander and Bloom could use the meetings as an opportunity to gather information,” which they evidently did.

The team announced the signing of seven players to minor league deals. They also invited that group, along with six prospects, to Major League Spring Training camp with the Rays. LHP Jonny Venters, who returns to the Rays organization as he continues his comeback effort, is one of the veteran invitees.

Venters spent the last three seasons in the Rays system as he recovered from a pair of Tommy John elbow surgeries, and an additional procedure, in his attempt to get back to the big leagues for the first time since 2012 with Braves. Last season he made it as far as Triple-A Durham, where he appeared in 24 games with a 2.28 ERA. Making it all the way back to the big leagues would make for an incredible story.

The other six players who signed include southpaws Adam Kolarek (pitched with Tampa Bay in 2017) and Vidal Nuño, right-handers R.J. Alaniz, Cody Hall, and Colton Murray, and INF/OF Brandon Snyder.

They join five players already in the system, who also received an invitation to Major League Spring Training: outfielders Jason Coats and Johnny Field, 1B/OF Joe McCarthy, C Nick Ciuffo, INF Kean Wong and RHP Ian Gibaut.

Here is information on the 13 invitees from the Rays PR department:

Alaniz (AH-lah-NIECE): has spent parts of eight minor league seasons in the Houston Astros (2010–15) and Detroit Tigers (2016–17) organizations. The 26-year-old is 42–37 lifetime with a 4.34 ERA (629-IP, 303-ER) in 209 appearances (83 starts). Over the past two seasons, he has split time between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo in the Detroit system, pitching to a 2.94 ERA (144-IP, 47-ER) in 95 appearances (10 starts) over that span.

Coats: Missed last year due to Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old made his major league debut with the Chicago White Sox in 2016, appearing in 28 games (14 starts). He was claimed off waivers by the Rays in January but subsequently released and re-signed to a minor league contract after it was learned he needed surgery. Coatswas selected by the White Sox in the 29th round of the 2012 June Draft out of Texas Christian University. In four seasons in the White Sox organization, he hit .287/.337/.458 (529-for-1,846) with 54 home runs and 286 RBI.

Ciuffo (SHOO-foe): was named the organization’s Best Defensive Catcher by Baseball America and Defensive Player of the Year by the Rays baseball operations department in 2017, his second straight season receiving each honor. The 22-year-old spent the entire 2017 season with Double-A Montgomery, batting .245/.319/.385 (91-for-371) and establishing career highs in doubles (29), home runs (seven) and RBI (42). He also threw out 23 of 60 (38.3 percent) potential base stealers and was named to the Southern League postseason All-Star Team. Ciuffo was a 2013 first round pick of the Rays.

Field: spent last season with Triple-A Durham, batting .261/.303/.425 (116-for-445) with 12 home runs and 57 RBI. In addition the 26-year-old had 35 doubles, ranking second in the International League, one shy of the league lead. Fieldwas selected by the Rays in the fifth round of the 2013 June Draft and has hit .270/.330/.444 (549-for-2,032) across five minor league seasons. This will be his third major league spring training with the Rays.

Gibaut (gih-BOH): split last season between Class-A Charlotte and Montgomery, going 7–1 with a 2.21 ERA (61-IP, 15-ER) and 11.4 SO/9 IP ratio in 48 relief appearances. In addition, the 24-year-old had 12 saves, fourth among Rays minor leaguers. He was selected by the Rays in the 11th round of the 2015 June Draft out of Tulane University. In three minor league seasons as a reliever, he is 12–4 with a 2.32 ERA (147.2-IP, 38-ER) and 178 strikeouts over 94 appearances.

Hall: has made a combined nine appearances in the majors with the San Francisco Giants (2015) and Miami Marlins (2016). The 29-year-old started last season pitching for Lancaster in the independent Atlantic League, and finished the season with Double-A Richmond (Giants). The 19th round selection in 2011 of the Giants is 17–13 with a 2.87 ERA (301.1-IP, 96-ER) in 245 appearances, all in relief, over seven minor league seasons.

Kolarek (koh-LAIR-ick): made his major league debut with the Rays last season, and pitched to a 6.48 ERA (8.1-IP, 6-ER) in 12 appearances across two stints in the majors. The 28-year-old has spent eight minor league seasons in the New York Mets (2010–15) and Rays (2016–17) organizations, going 24–22 with a 3.32 ERA (455-IP, 168-ER) in 331 appearances (two starts). He was selected by the Mets in the 11th round of the 2010 June Draft. Kolarek first joined the Rays organization after being selected from the Baltimore Orioles in the minor league phase of the 2015 Rule 5 Draft.

McCarthy: hit .284/.409/.434 (129-for-454) with 31 doubles, eight triples, seven home runs, 56 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 127 games with Montgomery last season. The 23-year-old was named to the Southern League postseason All-Star Team and was ranked by Baseball America as the league’s Best Defensive First Baseman and Best Strike-Zone Discipline in the Rays organization. He ranked among league leaders in batting average (10th), on-base percentage (second), doubles (tied for third), triples (tied for first), runs scored (tied for fourth) and walks (first). McCarthy was selected by the Rays in the fifth round of the 2015 June Draft out of the University of Virginia. Over three seasons he’s hit .283/.396/.415 (280-for-989) with 15 home runs and 137 RBI.

Murray: has spent his entire career in the Philadelphia Phillies organization until now. The 27-year-old combined to make 32 appearances in the majors from 2015–16. Murray split last season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and Double-A Reading, going 2–2 with a 4.58 ERA (53-IP, 27-ER) and 63 strikeouts in 41 appearances. Selected by the Phillies in the 13th round of the 2011 June Draft out of the University of Kansas, Murray has a 3.44 ERA (400.2-IP, 153-ER) across seven minor league seasons.

Nuño: has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, going 5–21 with a 4.29 ERA (344-IP, 164-ER) in 138 appearances (42 starts) with the New York Yankees (2013–14), Arizona Diamondbacks (2014–15), Seattle Mariners (2015–16) and Orioles (2017). The 30-year-old lefty spent last season in the Orioles organization and spent three stints in the majors — including the Opening Day roster out of spring training. In 2016, he made a career-high 55 appearances with the Mariners, posting a 3.53 ERA (58.2-IP, 23-ER) and 4.64 SO/BB ratio. Originally selected by the Cleveland Indians in the 48th round of the 2009 June Draft, Nuno has a 3.01 ERA (470-IP, 157-ER) over seven minor league seasons.

Snyder: has appeared in the majors in parts of five seasons with the Orioles (2010–11), Texas Rangers (2012), Boston Red Sox (2013) and Atlanta Braves (2016). A career .242/.279/.459 (47-for-194) hitter with nine home runs and 29 RBI in 120 games (38 starts; 18–1B, 13–3B, 3-RF, 2-LF, 2-DH), the 31-year-old Snyder spent all of last season with Triple-A Syracuse in the Washington Nationals organization. He batted .263/.356/.490 (110-for-418) with a career-high 23 home runs. Baltimore’s first round pick (13th overall) in the 2005 June Draft has hit .273/.338/.443 (1,076-for-3,947) with 254 doubles, 129 home runs and 636 RBI over 13 minor league seasons.

Venters: is trying to complete a terrific comeback. The 32-year-old has spent parts of three seasons with the Braves, going 15–10 with a 2.23 ERA (229.2-IP, 57-ER) and a 10.1 SO/9 IP ratio. The lefty has not pitched in a major league game since the 2012 National League Wild Card Game due to Tommy John surgeries in 2013 and 2014. Last season, he had a 2.28 ERA (23.2-IP, 6-ER) in 24 games in the Rays organization, appearing with the GCL Rays, Charlotte, Montgomery and Durham. Venters made at least 65 appearances in the majors in three straight seasons from 2010–12, and was named to the NL All-Star Team in 2011. The 30th round pick of the Braves in 2003 was originally signed with the Rays as a minor league free agent in March 2015.

Wong: split last season with Montgomery and Durham, batting .261/.322/.348 (110-for-422) with 22 doubles, five home runs and 48 RBI in 117 games. The 22-year-old was selected by the Rays in the fourth round of the 2013 June Draft out of Waiakea High School in Hawaii. The younger brother of the Cardinals Kolten Wong, Kean has hit .284/.333/.358 (528-for-1,861) with 13 home runs and 186 RBI over parts of five seasons.

Hot-Stove: Tampa Bay Rays Winter Meetings update, day four

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“Have a Coke and a smile.” Coca-Cola t-shirt logo from the 1979 Baseball Winter Meetings – Toronto, Canada.

The biggest trade of the day came out of the Miami dumpster fire contingent, as Derek Jeter and his Marlins shipped OF Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. There has been a measured amount of movement for the Tampa Bay Rays, including one small deal and the potential for others.

The Rays traded LHP Anthony Misiewicz, who was dealt to Tampa Bay from Seattle in August in the Ryan Garton deal. Now Misiewicz has been sent back to the Mariners organization. The deal allows Tampa Bay to net about $1-million in international cap space which likely will be used toward the acquisition of 16 year-old shortstop phenom Jelfry Marte.

Jesse Sanchez (MLB.com) initially reported that the Rays would sign the young shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. As I wrote yesterday, Marte is the third ranked international prospect behind Shohei Ohtani and Wander Franco, who signed with Tampa Bay in July. The cap space would also provide the Rays about $500 – 600 thousand more in international space to sign additional players.

We are excited about this one (trade), said Senior VP Chaim Bloom. Obviously the international market is someplace where you can get some really good upside, some high-end ability that is very far away but still has the ability to break through and really impact the club. We’re working on something that falls into that category.

Bloom also noted that the team has made progress on a few potential deals, and some conversations have reached more advanced stages.

We have a much better idea of what’s real and what isn’t, said Bloom. There’s nothing right at the finish line right now. I wouldn’t rule it out but there’s nothing at the one-yard line at this very moment.

The known known: Tampa Bay is at least listening to offers on most of its higher-paid players, although closer Alex Colome is expected to be the first to go, with the Cardinals a strong possibility. The Cubs, Mets and Rockies have also been among those interested.

The Twins and Rays have discussed right-hander Jake Odorizzi according to Mike Berardino (St. Paul Pioneer-Press), who added that Tampa Bay was not interested in Minnesota’s initial offer.

Meanwhile, Bill Brink (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) reported that the Yankees are “looking at” right-hander Chris Archer, but it is not clear whether the Rays will move him — especially to a division foe.

According to Bob Nightengale (USA Today) the Angels are close to acquiring a third baseman, and the reportedly have “strong interest” in new Padres third baseman Chase Headley. To that end, San Diego is “working very hard” to trade Headley, writes Buster Olney (ESPN), although he didn’t specify whether the Angels are involved. Why is this relevant? If the Angels ink a deal with Headley, they will definitely be out of the sensationalized running for Evan Longoria. I haven’t a clue why some writers feel the need to scrawl in hyperbole.

Finally, the Winter Meetings will come to an end Thursday with the Rule-5 Draft. Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) some projections have said the Rays will lose RHP Burch Smith and C Nick Ciuffo, while some believe Tampa Bay will just lose Smith.

We are braced for it, said Bloom. You never really want to believe anything is done until you hear the player’s name called.

Bloom told Solondz they prefer not to lose anyone, but when you leave someone off the 40-man roster you run that risk.

Should we lose someone (tomorrow) there’s still a chance we get them back, said Bloom. A big part of it is roster flexibility. You don’t want to get into next season and then need to create a roster spot for whatever reason and then you need to take someone off the roster who can be sent to the minor leagues by whomever wants to take him.

The Rays currently have 39 players on the on the roster, yet they have not decided whether to make a Rule-5 pick or not. That decision will depend upon how trade talks progress Thursday morning, ahead of the draft.