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The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part three

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The Rays walk into Fenway Park having plated at least eight runs in each of the last five games. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to open up a three game weekend series against the first place Boston Red Sox on Friday, at Fenway Park. Tampa Bay swept a rain shortened series in Baltimore with a 9-5 win against the Orioles on Thursday night, while Boston took two of three from Toronto. The Rays have now swept two consecutive series, won six straight games for the first time since 2014 (July 12-26, when they won nine in a row), and scored at least eight-runs in each of their last five games.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

After a slow start to the season, the Rays notched their third straight series win thanks to a mightily productive offense. Much like the Red Sox, Tampa Bay’s offense has proven to be a multi-faceted run producer. They have put the ball in play with the best of them, and pounced on pitcher’s mistakes to the tune of 21 extra base hits (including nine homers) over the last seven games, allowing them to enter Boston just three-games under .500 — an improvement of six games since April 15.

Boston won 17 of its first 19 games, but dropped three straight — including a no-hit loss to Sean Manaea and the Athletics on Saturday — before winning Wednesday and Thursday night in Toronto.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay and Boston have, essentially, posted the same offensive output. In fact, the Rays have out performed the Red Sox in some categories like batting average, on base percentage, BABIP, and weighted on base average. Although the question begs: can the Rays’ pitching staff keep Boston at bay long enough for the offense to go to work at the plate? Moreover, can Denard Span, CJ Cron, Joey Wendle, Daniel Robertson, Mallex Smith and company keep up the high contact/low walk/low strikeout approach against David Price and Rick Porcello?

Both teams are 7-3 over the last 10-days, which illustrates two things:

  1. The Rays are capable of winning ball games even though their early record might suggest otherwise.
  2. While still very good, the Red Sox are not infallible.

None of this is to say it will be easy for the good guys, who are 1-6 against Boston this season, because it won’t be. However, five of those six losses came by just a run, and Tampa Bay’s offense is currently firing on all cylinders. If they cannot win the series, at least it has the making of being a very entertaining set.

Pitching Probables

Over the life of the three-game set, Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (3-1, 2.54 ERA) and Yonny Chirinos (0-1, 3.48 ERA) on Friday and Saturday, and the bullpen (4-7, 4.87 ERA) in the series finale on Sunday. Alex Cora will counter with Drew Pomeranz (0-0, 7.36 ERA), David Price (2-2, 2.93 ERA), and Rick Porcello (4-0, 1.93 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell collected his third consecutive win in his last start. He could have let a first inning run shake him, however, he locked it in from that point on and attacked the zone. The southpaw hurled seven superb innings (the longest start for a Rays starter this season) and allowed just one run on five scattered hits and no walks. He struck out six. Snell has performed to a 1.40 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, with five walks and 25 punch-outs over 19-1/3 innings in his last three starts. Snell tossed 5-2/3 scoreless innings in his last start against Boston, allowing three hits and two walks, yet he struck out just two batters.

Drew Pomeranz will get the ball for his second start of the season after missing time with a left-forearm flexor injury suffered in Spring Training. The southpaw threw 3-2/3 innings on Saturday, and allowed three runs on five hits and two walks in a 7-3 Boston win. He struck out seven. Pomeranz will make his ninth start against Tampa Bay on Friday, and is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA, with 17 walks and 53 strikeouts in 42-2/3 combined innings of work. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (4-15, 2B, BB), Brad Miller (10-19, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B, RBI, BB), Denard Span (3-10, 2 BB)

Yonny Chirinos has pitched well in three of his four starts, although he still doesn’t have a win. Chirinos allowed two runs on four hits and two walks across 4-2/3 innings on Sunday against the Twins. He struck out six. The right-hander has not gone longer than 5-2/3 innings this season, however, he has fanned 21 in 24-2/3 innings this season.

David Price allowed four earned runs on nine hits and one walk, while striking out six over 7-2/3 innings on Sunday. Price worked efficiently over the span of his start only to give up a three-run homer to Khris Davis to ruin the effort. After two consecutive short outings (5 IP on 4/17 and 1 IP on 4/11), Price worked deep into the start, silencing any doubters who thought he may be harboring another elbow injury. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (4-15, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-4, 2B)

The Rays have made the official announcement of who will get the start on Sunday. I will update this piece once that announcement has been made.

Rick Porcello allowed three runs on three hits and three walks Tuesday, while striking out nine over seven innings in Toronto. Porcello has now posted five quality starts in five outings, who gave up all three runs in the second inning without the benefit of any hard contact; the right-hander was nicked by a walk, a weak dribbler that found the outfield grass, an infield single, a wild pitch and two fielders’ choices. Beyond that, Porcello was practically spotless, retiring 16 of the final 18 batters faced. The right-hander gave up three runs on six hits over 7-1/3 innings against the Rays on April 7, after allowing just one-run over 5-1/3 innings against them on March 30. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-7, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (5-16), Carlos Gomez (3-9, 2B, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (12-43, 5 2B, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (16-42, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Joey Wendle (2-7, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have activate 3B Matt Duffy (hamstring) from the 10-day DL, and option RHP Austin Pruitt — who hasn’t pitched since April 14 — back to Triple-A Durham.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part two

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More home plate celebrations would be a welcome reprieve from five consecutive losses. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic)

The Tampa Bay Rays will continue their road swing on Thursday, as they are set to open a three-game series with the Red Sox at Fenway. The Rays are coming off a brief two-game set against the Yankees, having suffered their fifth straight defeat with a 7-2 loss on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Red Sox swept a two-game Interleague series with Marlins, taking a 4-2 road win in 13 innings Tuesday night.

Stats Credit: ESPN

Tampa Bay dropped its fifth straight game since rallying for a win on Opening Day. They will now face a Boston team that has won five in a row (all on the road), including three out of four against the Rays last week.

Stats Credit: FanGraphs

In all fairness, though the Rays offense has not been very good, as exemplified by a -9.5 wRAA — which puts their offense somewhere between below average and poor — the Red Sox, honestly, haven’t been much better. Their -2.8 wRAA also finds their offense in the below average range. Tampa Bay held Boston to 10 runs over the first four games of the season (2.5 runs on average per game). Any success will hinge upon Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. If it can perform as it had during the Opening Series, the Rays could have a fighting chance. If not, well…

Pitching Matchups

Rays manager Kevin Cash will lean on Yonny Chirinos (0-0, 0.00 ERA), Jacob Faria (0-0, 4.50 ERA), and the bullpen over the next three games and four days. Alex Cora will respond with David Price (1-0, 0.00 ERA), Rick Porcello (1-0, 1.69 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before Sunday’s finale.

Stas Credit: FanGraphs

Yonny Chirinos will get the ball in his second appearance of the season — the first start of his big league career. He enters Fenway with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.500 WHIP after he tossed four scoreless innings against the Red Sox on Sunday. He issued one walk and struck out three. He also hit two batters. Nevertheless, Chirinos is 36-17 with a 2.75 ERA over 70 minor league starts (474-1/3 innings). He walked 74 and fanned 363 in 98 career appearances (4.91 K/BB).

David Price will make his second consecutive start against his former team. On Friday, the southpaw threw seven scoreless innings and allowed four hits with no walks. He fanned five. All in all, Price will face the Rays for the 11th time in his career, and is 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA over 60 innings of work. He has walked 11 and struck out 64. Key matchups: CJ Cron (3-12, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (3-11, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (2-6)

Jacob Faria faces the Red Sox again after he allowed one run in four innings against them on Sunday. He got the early hook on Sunday after throwing just 83 pitches (53 for strikes). He posted a solid 3.43 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 86.7 innings last season, but his 4.16 FIP and .265 BABIP suggests he might have slightly overachieved. Faria will be making his first career start at Fenway Park.

Rick Porcello completed 5-1/3 solid innings and notched a win on Saturday against the Rays after he allowed one earned run on six hits and one walk while striking out four. While the right-hander had a successful 2018 debut, it remains to be seen whether his success will continue; after all he generated just two swinging strikes and allowed eight flyballs. That outing was good, just don’t assume Porcello is back to his 2016 form. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (5-13), Brad Miller (11-40, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (14-38, 4 RBI, 2 BB)

The Rays are using Sunday as one of their bullpen days, and they will name a starter after Saturday’s game.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — an Opening Series Preview

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Jacob Faria, Chris Archer and Blake Snell are slated to pitch in the Opening Series against the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

After a long winter filled with cost cutting roster moves — necessitating the addition of players unfamiliar to many casual fans of the Tampa Bay Rays — the Opening Series is finally upon us. The Rays and those Massholes will jump right into AL East division head-to-head action starting Thursday at the Trop. The Red Sox captured the division title last season before losing to the eventual World Series champion, Houston, right away, while the Rays went 80-82 to finish in third place in the East.

The Rays traded away the face of the franchise, Evan Longoria, and either traded away or let go of the top three home run producers on the team: Logan Morrison (38 homers in 2017), Steven Souza Jr. (30), and Corey Dickerson (27). However, they also each ranked among the top 10 in whiffs on four-seam fastballs. Because of it, the Rays sought out replacements that fare better against four-seam fastballs (Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and C.J. Cron). Tampa Bay’s offense is projected to improve its team-wide strikeout rate by more than 4%, best in the big leagues.

Still, in spite of all the lateral moves, the Rays neither improved the roster nor got worse. Back in February, before Black Saturday, the Rays were projected by PECOTA to go 84-78 on the season — the exact same projected W/L record as in 2017 — and PECOTA hasn’t really deviated from that projection since; +/- one win or loss.

Because the team is bereft of high powered veterans, as RJ Anderson (Baseball Prospectus) noted, a lot of things have to go right for Tampa Bay if it is going to hit the 83 or 84 high water mark projection:

I’m focusing on the postseason part more than the 83-win projection part. At minimum, Kiermaier has to stay healthy, and Snell and Faria have to be legitimate above-average starters. You can also throw in that the bullpen has to way overachieve and the lineup has to have most/all the question marks (Denard Span, Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Matt Duffy) avoid injury and cratering. Oh, and the kids probably have to hit the ground running, especially Adames. That we can list so many things reveals why it’s hard to take the projection seriously―it feels like there are bigger error bars here than with most teams.

2018 PECOTA projections for the Rays and Red Sox. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

Starting pitching and a lag in power let the Red Sox down in the 2017 Postseason. Boston tried to address both issues this winter, signing 30 year-old J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110-million deal, and making a greater effort to manage Chris Sale’s offseason workload after he tired down the stretch. Sale led all of baseball with 308 strikeouts, yet finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting after going 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA in August and September. The biggest boost to the rotation could be a full season from former Cy Young Award winner David Price, who made only 11 starts last season but came through spring training in apparent fine form.

Pitching Matchups

2017 Stats. (Credit: FanGraphs)

Chris Archer: Archer has elite strengths, thanks to his high velocity fastball/nasty slider combination. He, however, may also have a home run weakness due to his reticence to lean on a changeup he barely believes in. The 2018 projections see the excellent strikeout rate and the decent walk rate, and figure he should regress towards the league average in the home runs allowed category. Even so, Archer is still a two-pitch pitcher, and the slugging rates on his two main pitches skyrocket the third time through the order. Studies on the subject show the addition of a third pitch, especially during the later innings, can lead to a softer third time through the order penalty, and under ideal circumstances that is something the right-hander worked on during Spring Training. The known known: Archer is going to rack up the strikeouts, but also give up a fair amount of home runs the third time through the order, when he’s still mostly throwing fastballs and sliders. Archer fanned 18 in 15-1/3 innings against Red Sox last season, although he went 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in those three starts.

Chris Sale: Last season, tweaks to Sale’s pitch mix returned a ten-point boost to his strikeout rate. The southpaw notched up his slider usage nearly eight points and sprinkled in a few more changeups, favoring his fastball in deeper counts. The result was a 43% strikeout rate and a 13.9% whiff rate on his heater, and a monstrous 36.2% strikeout rate overall. The rebound propelled Sale past the 300 strikeout total en route to a 2.90 ERA/2.45 FIP/0.97 WHIP. If not for five starts where he was tagged for 26 earned runs (over his final 11 starts) Sale would have claimed his first Cy Young Award. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (5-14, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (4-11, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (3-11, 3B, RBI)

Blake Snell: A tale of two halves would be the best way to describe Snell’s 2017 campaign. The left-hander compiled a 4.85 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 52 first-half innings, then turned in a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half. Mechanical and placement adjustments on the rubber were catalysts that drove the positive results. Snell’s secondary offerings — slider, curveball and changeup — all have great whiff rates, with the first two sitting over 20%. His Fastball strike rate remained the same over both halves, although his BB/9 plummeted from 5.7% to 3.2%, and his whiff rate rose over 3%. If the second half of 2017 is indicitive of anything, Snell is ready to push himself up the ranks of a top-20 starter.

David Price: The former Ray was known as one of the best workhorses in the big leagues prior to 2017, notching 200+ innings in six of the past seven seasons (186-2/3 innings in 2013 with Tampa Bay being the sole exception). However, Price started last season with a mysterious arm injury, then was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation leading to the “injury prone” label which found him in the bullpen. Price returned from his malaise pumping 94.9 mph as a reliever and looking very much like the ace of old. If Price can become more consistent with his sinker, while also maintaining his fastball velocity, there is a solid chance he can return to the upper levels of the starting pitcher landscape. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-7), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, 2B, HR, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-3) 

Rays Bullpen Day

Rick Porcello: Talk about a descent into mediocrity. Pocello went from a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP Cy Young Award winning 2016 campaign, to a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2017. His home run per nine innings rate ballooned to 1.68, while nearly all his pitches got launched into the outfield stands — including his vaunted sinker. As FanGraphs found, his pair of fastballs that fueled his 2016 success each saw their ISOs balloon, averaging .206 between them and allowing a combined 22 HR. Meanwhile, his changeup – a pitch known as a consistent strike-earning offering early in counts – faced a similar fate, getting slapped with a .276 ISO and 24.0% HR/FB rate. There’s reason to believe his stuff just isn’t all that great. His fastball velocity hovers around 90 mph, and he not only needs to effectively control his pitches, but also mix them well. He also needs to sprinkle in some deception to get through lineups. He may come closer to returning to his 2017 form, however, that amazing season should be viewed as the exception, not the rule. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (3-10), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (11-37, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (13-35, 4 RBI, 2 BB)

Jacob Faria: The right-hander hit the ground running in his rookie campaign, boasting a stellar 2.00 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his first seven starts. Yet despite improving his strikeout marks in the following five outings, Faria battled an abdominal injury that eventually sidelined him for a month in mid-August. While his velocity isn’t impressive, his fastball can boast some occasional cutting action that confounds hitters. Moreover, the “rising” action on the pitch plays well with his split-change and slider, which create vertical drop differentials of seven and nine inches (respectively). Per Nick Pollack (FanGraphs) Faria’s slider is his jack-of-all-trades offering that excels in any count, let it be stealing a strike early (48.3% zone rate), inducing grounders (52.2%) and pop-ups (21.1%), or earning a whiff with its sharp break (14.2%). Meanwhile, Faria’s changeup shuts the door effectively, using its 23.8% whiff rate to generate a 45.5% K rate across 244 thrown. If he can consistently command his fastball, including that cutting action, he will take the next step with the Rays.

Hector Velázquez: The scouting report on Velázquez per Over the Monster:

Velázquez offers three pitches that he trusts. His fastball isn’t overpowering, coming in at the low-90’s. He also offers a solid changeup and a splitter that’s been attributed with the reason for his 2016 breakout in Mexico. Velazquez isn’t going to overpower anyone, but at his best he throws strikes and limits free passes. That’ll play as a replacement-level pitcher, and given the lack of knowledge on him around the league he could even be better.

Noteworthiness

— Need some answered questions on Opening Day? Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) has got you covered.

— Don’t forget to check out our season preview:

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: A Tampa Bay Rays 2018 season preview of sorts

 

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays returned from their home away from home (seen above), where they will start a three-game series against the Red Sox on Friday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Two things start for the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday:

  1. The final series of the season against the Boston Red Sox.
  2. The final stretch of the 2017 campaign.

(Stats: ESPN)

Despite going 2-4 over the last six games, Tampa Bay is still in the hunt for a playoff berth, although improbably so.

All across the organization the Rays firmly believe they still believe they have a chance, albeit one that requires them to come pretty close to putting together a Cleveland-like winning streak.

It would be Herculean, Stu Sternberg told the Tampa Bay Times. But we’re not there yet.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted that the main root of their belief — as odd as it sounds 5½ months into the season — is that they have not yet played their best for any extended period, evidenced by the fact that at no point have they won more than four in a row.

As a pitcher who pitches every fifth day and watches the games in between, I don’t feel like we’ve gone on that collective run where we knew we were going to score runs and we knew we were going to prevent runs consistently for a week plus, right-hander Alex Cobb said. Where we showed up a the park and we’re like, ‘Everything is going to click today.’ It’s been kind of just battling to stay afloat.

… It’s never too late for that, until the calendar flips to the next month. But it needs to hurry up.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

They are battling to stay afloat, as Cobb suggests, for a couple of reasons. First, the starting rotation has not been effective of late.

Consider that the front five have performed to 5.72 ERA/4.51 FIP over the last two weeks — a time when every poor start makes it that much harder for the Rays to overcome what they lack. That the starters have averaged just over four innings per start over that stretch certainly doesn’t help.

Second, a regressing offense.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pair those two together, and you have a pretty volatile combination … although volatile as it related to an implosion, not an explosion.

Thinking back to 2011 (Game 162) and 2013 (Game 163), they’ll have to approach things day-by-day and game-by-game over the next 2½ weeks, starting a month ago.

We’ve been in this position before, Sternberg said. Whether we have to leapfrog two teams or 22, it’s about winning baseball games. And that starts with winning a baseball game.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy, especially for a team that hasn’t shown the ability to consistently string together a bunch of wins. But as long as there still is a mathematical chance…

Kevin Cash will throw Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.66 ERA, 5.02 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-9, 3.59 ERA, 4.16 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (8-8, 4.52 ERA, 5.79 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (16-7, 2.76 ERA, 2.20 FIP), Rick Porcello (9-17, 4.64 ERA, 4.56 FIP), and Eduardo Rodriguez (5-5, 4.23 ERA, 4.02 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese was knocked out in the second inning after he allowed eight runs (six earned) in his last start against the Red Sox. One had to question his sequence of pitches in the first inning at-bat vs. Dustin Pedroia. He followed a dust-off pitch with a heater that was up and over the inner third of the plate — right in Pedroia’s juice zone. From there, things spiraled out of control for the Rays, who appeared to be no match for the very aggressive Red Sox. Expect Andriese to be on a very short leash Friday night.

Sale will face the Rays for the sixth and final time this season. Boston took a lead in the first inning last weekend against Tampa Bay, which was more run support than Sale would need — allowing him to easily collect his 16th victory of the season. The southpaw has fared well against Tampa Bay thus far, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 2017, although he’s pitched even better Tropicana Field over his career, going 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA. Sale is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 17 road starts this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-7, 2B, HR, RBI), Danny Espinosa (2-5), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-15, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Trevor Plouffe (15-52, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

Cobb has won his last two outings and has delivered quality starts in each of his last three, the most recent of which came against Boston. The right-hander held the Red Sox to just one earned run, although it took him 93 pitches to navigate five-plus innings. Cobb is 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 career starts against Boston, and 23-18 with a 3.07 ERA in 57 career starts at the Trop.

Porcello kept the Red Sox in the game last time out although he lost, allowing two runs on five over innings against the Rays.  Porcello enjoyed a strong outing overall, although it was tarnished in the fifth inning when he allowed a pair of runs on four hits and a walk. He ran up his pitch count and did not return for the sixth, marking the second consecutive outing in which he failed to complete six innings. While it was an improvement on the seven runs he allowed in his previous turn, the sinkerballer has still allowed 14 runs over 21-2/3 innings in his last four outings. In five starts vs. Tampa Bay in 2017, Porcello is 1-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (15-58, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (11-34, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi allowed five runs, but only one earned, during his previous start, which came at Citi Field against the Yankees. The start broke a string of two straight wins for him, in which he allowed three earned runs over 11 2/3 innings combined. Odorizzi looked really good the first time through the order. He reverse pitched New York’s batters early in those at-bats, leaning on his curveball (since he didn’t have his splitter), then blew them away with a well located fastball that coaxed a good number of swings and misses. Though he held the the Yankees hitless over the first three innings, they came back to answer big in the fourth. Odorizzi’s night was done fter after 52-pitch fourth inning. For context Odo threw 43 pitches in the first three innings alone. He went to three-ball counts in just two of the first nine at-bats, but that number blossomed to seven three-ball counts to seven of the last 10 batters he faced.

Rodriguez is coming off his best start since his return from the DL, holding Oakland to one hit and one run over six innings while fanning nine. After allowing a first inning RBI double to Jed Lowrie, the southpaw settled down as Boston’s offense took over. Rodriguez has now thrown two straight quality starts after a rough end to August. He’s posted a 76/24 K/BB since the beginning of June (67 IP) despite a lackluster 5.37 ERA. The 94mph four-seam fastball/87mph changeup/84mph slider/88mph cutter throwing hurler is 0-1 with a 7.58 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Key matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Evan Longoria (5-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier hit a two-run blast in the fifth inning of Thursday’s series finale with the Twins. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A pair of AL East rivals, with their sights set on playing postseason ‘ball, will open up a weekend series on Friday in Boston, when the Tampa Bay Rays start a three-game set against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay missed a chance to sweep the Twins on Wednesday, falling 10-6, while Boston won the rubber match of their series with Toronto, 6-1.

Most recently, the Red Sox swept a two-game road series against the Rays on August 8-9.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay is still in the thick of the Wildcard race, although they need to get something going in order to gain ground on Minnesota, who starts Friday 3-1/2 games ahead of the Rays for the last Wildcard spot. Boston leads the pack in the AL East, although the team hasn’t played the best baseball of late — having dropped four of their last seven, while scoring 42 runs over the last 14 days; an average of three runs per game over that stretch. Compare that to the Rays, who’ve plated 61 runs over the same span (4.4 runs per game) thanks in part to a beefy .232 ISO.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

The key for Tampa Bay will be for the offense to get things started early against Boston, as it’s had a pretty lock down bullpen over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff must step up and hold any leads, no matter how big or small. Ahem,  that’s not going to be an easy task against a team who uses technology to steal signs. I digress.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (9-8, 3.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP), Matt Andriese (5-2, 3.78 ERA, 4.79 FIP), and presumably* Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA, 4.18 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Drew Pomeranz (14-5, 3.36 ERA, 3.79 FIP), Chris Sale (15-7, 2.85 ERA, 2.20 FIP), and Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67 ERA, 4.57 FIP).

*The starter in the series finale has not been officially announced.

Pitching Matchups

Archer exited two batters into his last start against the ChiSox because of right lateral forearm tightness. Although he received a clean bill of health from team doctor Koco Eaton and will aim for his third career win against Boston, against whom he is 2-11 with a 5.06 ERA. In his last normal start, Archer limited the Cardinals to one run on five hits over seven innings on Sunday. The only blemish on the right-hander’s ledger was a seventh-inning home run by Kolten Wong. Part of his recent spate of dominance has to do with the fact that Archer is walking fewer batters and striking more of them out, posting a 69/9 K/BB in his last 50-1/3 innings of work over his past seven starts. He is 2-0, but with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) on the south side of Chicago, and 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.

Pomeranz had his first mishap in nine weeks in his last turn, allowing four runs on eight hits over 5-1/3 innings against the Yankees — his first loss since June 11. The southpaw allowed a pair of homers, representing the only runs the Yankees could score. It was the first time he allowed multiple homers in a start since early May, so it might be best to view the underwhelming outing as a blip on the radar. After all, Pomeranz sports a 3.36 ERA/1.38 WHIP/9.4 K:9 in 2017, and is 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 13 starts at home this season. Be that as it may, he is 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts (13-1/3 IP) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Brad Miller (9-18, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B, RBI, BB)

Andriese made his first start since returning from a hip injury on Sunday … although he posted a dud, allowing five earned runs on six hits over five innings against the Whit Sox. Nevertheless he earned a win in Boston on May 14th in a 5.0 IP/4 H/2 ER/4 BB/5 K outing.

Sale is in the throes of his first slump of the season, having lost three of his last four starts. The southpaw was tagged for three solo homers, including the first back-to-back job he’s allowed in his big league career. The Yankees did as they are wont to do, fouling off a ton of balls, working over Boston’s ace, and subsequently getting his pitch count up to 109 before he was pulled from the game. The left-hander’s experienced a drop-off since the calendar flipped to August, performing to a 4.57 ERA, while allowing seven homers in as many starts. As it was written elsewhere, his performance in 2017 mimics a career pattern of tailing off in the final two months of seasons past; Sale’s ERA is under 3.00 from April to July in his career, but it’s over 3.00 in August and closes in on 4.00 in September/October. Still, Sale is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (2-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-8, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-14, HR, RBI, BB), Trevor Plouffe (14-49, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-6, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

Cobb held the Twins to one run on three hits and two walks while striking out seven over 5-2/3 innings on Monday night. After giving up his only run in the first inning Cobb went to work, putting down 12 of the next 13 batters on six strikeouts, a double play, and five ground ball outs — keeping the Rays in the ball game until they could break things open in the sixth inning.

Porcello continues to be victimized by the long ball, as he was taken deep three times by Toronto in his last turn; he has given up 35 homers on the season. He has now given up at least three home runs three times this season, and has given up multiple homers a whopping 10 times. Porcello has eclipsed his career high in homer runs by 10, the main reason he’s performed to a 4.67 ERA this season. After dominating the league in 2016, Porcello is 6-10 with a bloated 5.38 ERA at Fenway, and 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA in four starts (24-1/3 IP) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Corey Dickerson (8-32, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (14-55, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Mallex Smith (2-8, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Did you hear about the newest bobblehead giveaway by the Red Sox, expected at some point this weekend?

(Photo Credit: Mad Magazine)

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), The Rays likely won’t know until Saturday where they are headed after Sunday’s game, as Hurricane Irma might force rescheduling or relocation of a series with the Yankees slated to start Monday night at Tropicana Field.

Discussions between the Rays and Major League Baseball officials have been ongoing based around the forecast path of the storm, potential impact on the bay area and travel logistics. Both sides agreed, given the uncertainty, to wait until Saturday to make a decision.

Most likely options are pushing the series opener back to Tuesday, then playing a doubleheader Wednesday at the Trop, playing the games at a neutral site (Baltimore seems the choice), or playing in New York.

“We are monitoring the storm carefully and are in regular communication with MLB regarding our options,” team president Brian Auld said Thursday. “Right now, our focus is on safety first and foremost.”

The Rays left Thursday afternoon for Boston, with players and traveling staff allowed to bring their families on the flight. Team offices were closed starting Thursday.