Rays vs Red Sox Series Preview Archives

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

September 15, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays returned from their home away from home (seen above), where they will start a three-game series against the Red Sox on Friday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Two things start for the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday:

The final series of the season against the Boston Red Sox.
The final stretch of the 2017 campaign.

(Stats: ESPN)

Despite going 2-4 over the last six games, Tampa Bay is still in the hunt for a playoff berth, although improbably so.

All across the organization the Rays firmly believe they still believe they have a chance, albeit one that requires them to come pretty close to putting together a Cleveland-like winning streak.

It would be Herculean, Stu Sternberg told the Tampa Bay Times. But we’re not there yet.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted that the main root of their belief — as odd as it sounds 5½ months into the season — is that they have not yet played their best for any extended period, evidenced by the fact that at no point have they won more than four in a row.

As a pitcher who pitches every fifth day and watches the games in between, I don’t feel like we’ve gone on that collective run where we knew we were going to score runs and we knew we were going to prevent runs consistently for a week plus, right-hander Alex Cobb said. Where we showed up a the park and we’re like, ‘Everything is going to click today.’ It’s been kind of just battling to stay afloat.

… It’s never too late for that, until the calendar flips to the next month. But it needs to hurry up.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

They are battling to stay afloat, as Cobb suggests, for a couple of reasons. First, the starting rotation has not been effective of late.

Consider that the front five have performed to 5.72 ERA/4.51 FIP over the last two weeks — a time when every poor start makes it that much harder for the Rays to overcome what they lack. That the starters have averaged just over four innings per start over that stretch certainly doesn’t help.

Second, a regressing offense.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pair those two together, and you have a pretty volatile combination … although volatile as it related to an implosion, not an explosion.

Thinking back to 2011 (Game 162) and 2013 (Game 163), they’ll have to approach things day-by-day and game-by-game over the next 2½ weeks, starting a month ago.

We’ve been in this position before, Sternberg said. Whether we have to leapfrog two teams or 22, it’s about winning baseball games. And that starts with winning a baseball game.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy, especially for a team that hasn’t shown the ability to consistently string together a bunch of wins. But as long as there still is a mathematical chance…

Kevin Cash will throw Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.66 ERA, 5.02 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-9, 3.59 ERA, 4.16 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (8-8, 4.52 ERA, 5.79 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (16-7, 2.76 ERA, 2.20 FIP), Rick Porcello (9-17, 4.64 ERA, 4.56 FIP), and Eduardo Rodriguez (5-5, 4.23 ERA, 4.02 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese was knocked out in the second inning after he allowed eight runs (six earned) in his last start against the Red Sox. One had to question his sequence of pitches in the first inning at-bat vs. Dustin Pedroia. He followed a dust-off pitch with a heater that was up and over the inner third of the plate — right in Pedroia’s juice zone. From there, things spiraled out of control for the Rays, who appeared to be no match for the very aggressive Red Sox. Expect Andriese to be on a very short leash Friday night.

Sale will face the Rays for the sixth and final time this season. Boston took a lead in the first inning last weekend against Tampa Bay, which was more run support than Sale would need — allowing him to easily collect his 16th victory of the season. The southpaw has fared well against Tampa Bay thus far, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 2017, although he’s pitched even better Tropicana Field over his career, going 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA. Sale is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 17 road starts this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-7, 2B, HR, RBI), Danny Espinosa (2-5), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-15, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Trevor Plouffe (15-52, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

Cobb has won his last two outings and has delivered quality starts in each of his last three, the most recent of which came against Boston. The right-hander held the Red Sox to just one earned run, although it took him 93 pitches to navigate five-plus innings. Cobb is 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 career starts against Boston, and 23-18 with a 3.07 ERA in 57 career starts at the Trop.

Porcello kept the Red Sox in the game last time out although he lost, allowing two runs on five over innings against the Rays. Porcello enjoyed a strong outing overall, although it was tarnished in the fifth inning when he allowed a pair of runs on four hits and a walk. He ran up his pitch count and did not return for the sixth, marking the second consecutive outing in which he failed to complete six innings. While it was an improvement on the seven runs he allowed in his previous turn, the sinkerballer has still allowed 14 runs over 21-2/3 innings in his last four outings. In five starts vs. Tampa Bay in 2017, Porcello is 1-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (15-58, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (11-34, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi allowed five runs, but only one earned, during his previous start, which came at Citi Field against the Yankees. The start broke a string of two straight wins for him, in which he allowed three earned runs over 11 2/3 innings combined. Odorizzi looked really good the first time through the order. He reverse pitched New York’s batters early in those at-bats, leaning on his curveball (since he didn’t have his splitter), then blew them away with a well located fastball that coaxed a good number of swings and misses. Though he held the the Yankees hitless over the first three innings, they came back to answer big in the fourth. Odorizzi’s night was done fter after 52-pitch fourth inning. For context Odo threw 43 pitches in the first three innings alone. He went to three-ball counts in just two of the first nine at-bats, but that number blossomed to seven three-ball counts to seven of the last 10 batters he faced.

Rodriguez is coming off his best start since his return from the DL, holding Oakland to one hit and one run over six innings while fanning nine. After allowing a first inning RBI double to Jed Lowrie, the southpaw settled down as Boston’s offense took over. Rodriguez has now thrown two straight quality starts after a rough end to August. He’s posted a 76/24 K/BB since the beginning of June (67 IP) despite a lackluster 5.37 ERA. The 94mph four-seam fastball/87mph changeup/84mph slider/88mph cutter throwing hurler is 0-1 with a 7.58 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Key matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Evan Longoria (5-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

September 8, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Kevin Kiermaier hit a two-run blast in the fifth inning of Thursday’s series finale with the Twins. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A pair of AL East rivals, with their sights set on playing postseason ‘ball, will open up a weekend series on Friday in Boston, when the Tampa Bay Rays start a three-game set against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay missed a chance to sweep the Twins on Wednesday, falling 10-6, while Boston won the rubber match of their series with Toronto, 6-1.

Most recently, the Red Sox swept a two-game road series against the Rays on August 8-9.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay is still in the thick of the Wildcard race, although they need to get something going in order to gain ground on Minnesota, who starts Friday 3-1/2 games ahead of the Rays for the last Wildcard spot. Boston leads the pack in the AL East, although the team hasn’t played the best baseball of late — having dropped four of their last seven, while scoring 42 runs over the last 14 days; an average of three runs per game over that stretch. Compare that to the Rays, who’ve plated 61 runs over the same span (4.4 runs per game) thanks in part to a beefy .232 ISO.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

The key for Tampa Bay will be for the offense to get things started early against Boston, as it’s had a pretty lock down bullpen over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff must step up and hold any leads, no matter how big or small. Ahem, that’s not going to be an easy task against a team who uses technology to steal signs. I digress.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (9-8, 3.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP), Matt Andriese (5-2, 3.78 ERA, 4.79 FIP), and presumably* Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA, 4.18 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Drew Pomeranz (14-5, 3.36 ERA, 3.79 FIP), Chris Sale (15-7, 2.85 ERA, 2.20 FIP), and Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67 ERA, 4.57 FIP).

*The starter in the series finale has not been officially announced.

Pitching Matchups

Archer exited two batters into his last start against the ChiSox because of right lateral forearm tightness. Although he received a clean bill of health from team doctor Koco Eaton and will aim for his third career win against Boston, against whom he is 2-11 with a 5.06 ERA. In his last normal start, Archer limited the Cardinals to one run on five hits over seven innings on Sunday. The only blemish on the right-hander’s ledger was a seventh-inning home run by Kolten Wong. Part of his recent spate of dominance has to do with the fact that Archer is walking fewer batters and striking more of them out, posting a 69/9 K/BB in his last 50-1/3 innings of work over his past seven starts. He is 2-0, but with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) on the south side of Chicago, and 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.

Pomeranz had his first mishap in nine weeks in his last turn, allowing four runs on eight hits over 5-1/3 innings against the Yankees — his first loss since June 11. The southpaw allowed a pair of homers, representing the only runs the Yankees could score. It was the first time he allowed multiple homers in a start since early May, so it might be best to view the underwhelming outing as a blip on the radar. After all, Pomeranz sports a 3.36 ERA/1.38 WHIP/9.4 K:9 in 2017, and is 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 13 starts at home this season. Be that as it may, he is 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts (13-1/3 IP) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Brad Miller (9-18, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B, RBI, BB)

Andriese made his first start since returning from a hip injury on Sunday … although he posted a dud, allowing five earned runs on six hits over five innings against the Whit Sox. Nevertheless he earned a win in Boston on May 14th in a 5.0 IP/4 H/2 ER/4 BB/5 K outing.

Sale is in the throes of his first slump of the season, having lost three of his last four starts. The southpaw was tagged for three solo homers, including the first back-to-back job he’s allowed in his big league career. The Yankees did as they are wont to do, fouling off a ton of balls, working over Boston’s ace, and subsequently getting his pitch count up to 109 before he was pulled from the game. The left-hander’s experienced a drop-off since the calendar flipped to August, performing to a 4.57 ERA, while allowing seven homers in as many starts. As it was written elsewhere, his performance in 2017 mimics a career pattern of tailing off in the final two months of seasons past; Sale’s ERA is under 3.00 from April to July in his career, but it’s over 3.00 in August and closes in on 4.00 in September/October. Still, Sale is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (2-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-8, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-14, HR, RBI, BB), Trevor Plouffe (14-49, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-6, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

Cobb held the Twins to one run on three hits and two walks while striking out seven over 5-2/3 innings on Monday night. After giving up his only run in the first inning Cobb went to work, putting down 12 of the next 13 batters on six strikeouts, a double play, and five ground ball outs — keeping the Rays in the ball game until they could break things open in the sixth inning.

Porcello continues to be victimized by the long ball, as he was taken deep three times by Toronto in his last turn; he has given up 35 homers on the season. He has now given up at least three home runs three times this season, and has given up multiple homers a whopping 10 times. Porcello has eclipsed his career high in homer runs by 10, the main reason he’s performed to a 4.67 ERA this season. After dominating the league in 2016, Porcello is 6-10 with a bloated 5.38 ERA at Fenway, and 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA in four starts (24-1/3 IP) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Corey Dickerson (8-32, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (14-55, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Mallex Smith (2-8, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Did you hear about the newest bobblehead giveaway by the Red Sox, expected at some point this weekend?

(Photo Credit: Mad Magazine)

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), The Rays likely won’t know until Saturday where they are headed after Sunday’s game, as Hurricane Irma might force rescheduling or relocation of a series with the Yankees slated to start Monday night at Tropicana Field.

Discussions between the Rays and Major League Baseball officials have been ongoing based around the forecast path of the storm, potential impact on the bay area and travel logistics. Both sides agreed, given the uncertainty, to wait until Saturday to make a decision.

Most likely options are pushing the series opener back to Tuesday, then playing a doubleheader Wednesday at the Trop, playing the games at a neutral site (Baltimore seems the choice), or playing in New York.

“We are monitoring the storm carefully and are in regular communication with MLB regarding our options,” team president Brian Auld said Thursday. “Right now, our focus is on safety first and foremost.”

The Rays left Thursday afternoon for Boston, with players and traveling staff allowed to bring their families on the flight. Team offices were closed starting Thursday.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

August 8, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Logan Morrison drove in Tampa Bay’s first run in 21 innings with a second inning base hit on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On the heels of a grueling three-game set with Milwaukee — culminating in an emotional series-salvaging walk-off home run by Steven Souza Junior — the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Boston Red Sox into the Trop for a brief two-game series, starting Tuesday.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays didn’t look like an offensive juggernaut in the series against the Brewers. Even though they managed to salvage the last game of set, they did so by a 2-1 score, and they were blanked over the first two games. Tampa Bay has averaged just 2.00 runs per game in the last five games, yet it is 3-2 in those games as the pitching staff has performed to a 1.80 ERA over that stretch.

To put it bluntly, the Rays need to get their offense going in this series, as Boston has been strong at the plate of late. Boding in their favor though, the good guys are 30-25 here at home, where they’ve averaged just under five runs per game (4.56). The Rays start the series 5-1/2 games out of first place in the AL East, 2-1/2 games behind New York for the top Wildcard slot, and tied with Kansas City for the last Wildcard slot. Suffice it to say, they have a lot to play for in this series.

After a little slump the Red Sox are again hot. They are coming off a four-game sweep of the White Sox at Fenway, having outscored Chicago by an 11-run differential over the series. The Offense has been an issue for this team, but it is starting to catchup up with the pitching staff of late, averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last eight games.

The Rays took 3-of-4 from the Red Sox at Tropicana Field in July.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next couple of days Kevin Cash will lean on Austin Pruitt (6-2, 5.65 ERA, 3.91 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (6-4, 4.47 ERA, 5.74 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (13-4, 2.70 ERA, 2.07 FIP), and Rick Porcello (5-14, 4.70 ERA, 4.33 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Pruitt made his second start since getting recalled from Triple-A Durham last Wednesday, in Houston. The right-hander responded with a quality start, blanking the ‘Stros on five hits and a walk over 6-1/3 innings. All of the the hits Pruitt surrendered led off an inning, yet the right-hander played off of Houston’s aggressiveness and pitched to the margins. In doing so he induced weak contact and coaxed mishits, held the Astros to 0-for-6 wRISP — Houston went 0-for-9 overall — and kept his pitch count low. In the battle for Texas, Austin reigned supreme over Dallas Keuchel.

Sale showed signs of being human in his last start, allowing seven runs and two homers in five innings against Cleveland. Before that start, Sale had thrown 21-2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. A marquee pitcher’s duel against Carlos Carrasco turned into a Fenway Park shootout that saw 10 runners cross the plate over the first two frames, while five more score in the ninth. In his last start against the Rays, Sale allowed four runs (all earned) on seven hits, including a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6), Logan Morrison (5-12, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (14-46, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (2-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3)

Odorizzi was activated from the disabled list (retroactive to July 25) after suffering a lower back strain. He allowed two runs on three hits and no walks, while striking out six over three innings in a rehab start for the Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs on Friday. The right-hander told Kevin Cash, “I’m ready to go … I will be back in there next time my spot comes up, so no more rehab starts.” He also told Cash that he hadn’t this good in quite a while — validating the skipper’s decision to start him against Boston on Wednesday.

Porcello had his strongest outing of 2017 at the Trop on July 8, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven in a season-high eight innings. He, however, took a loss. Porcello most recently allowed five runs on seven hits over 5-1/3 innings against the ChiSox. With a 4.70 ERA on the season, and a 2-9 record since May 28, the Rays should be able to be competitive against the right-hander. It bears mentioning, Porcello has dropped two out of his three starts against Tampa Bay this year. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (8-29, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (14-53, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (8-29, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (2-6, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (8-27, HR, RBI, BB)

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview

July 6, 2017 By belowaverage Leave a Comment

An average of +40,000 fans turned out each day to watch the Rays battle the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Rays fans, it’s up to you to turn out for this big series against the BoSox this weekend. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home for one last four-game series leading up to the All-Star Break, after going 4-4 on their most recent road trip. Enter the AL East leading Boston Red Sox.

One soap box topic before the series preview. I know I posted this already, but it bears mentioning again. Rays fans, it was incredible to witness an average of +40,000 fans turn out the last two days to watch the Rays battle the Cubs at Wrigley Field. It was loud and raucous, and it made me wish our home games were again like that. Guess what? The Tampa Bay Rays are in contention, and they deserve your support.

Personally, I traveled from St. Petersburg to Chicago — almost 2,000 miles, mind you — to attend the series. From there, it took me 45 minutes to travel from Bucktown (where I stayed) to Wrigleyville, by rail, and then back again. I didn’t complain when I was cramped like a sardine on the Blue and Red CTA Lines. Matter of fact, I hate being touched by strangers, although I remembered where I was and why, and I was thankful for the opportunity to watch may favorite baseball team take on the World Series champions some 2,000 miles from home — give or take 30 miles.

I wasn’t alone.

S/O to all the Rays fans who came out to support us in Chicago! Awesome to see! Big series at the Trop gonna need the place packed out!

— Steven Souza Jr. (@SouzaJr) July 5, 2017

Friends, Steven Souza Jr. is right! The upcoming series against Boston is HUGE, and the good guys can make up some ground in the AL East and postseason standings going into the break. They ~~want~~ need it rockin’ and loud under the big top this weekend.

Not to pat myself on the back, but if I can literally stand on my feet for the better part of seven hours, from Tuesday morning into the late afternoon — including the ingress and egress into and out of the Friendly Confines, as well as the time spent standing in the bleacher section, under the centerfield scoreboard — then you can make the short or longer trek from wherever you live (be that in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, etc) to the Trop, to root on our team.

Boo-hoo, the bridge is long.

Suck it up, and show up late if you have to.

But the traffic is terrible!

No shit! But it’s not Rays fault that the City of Tampa and/or FDOT designed an intentional bottleneck on the east side of the Howard Franklin Bridge, which makes it hard to get into and out of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties during rush hour. Pro tip: show up a little late, or take the Gandy Bridge, which has been made much quicker on the Pinellas side.

In the end, the players shouldn’t have to deal with the embarrassment associated with an apathetic fanbase. Quit making excuses, and get out to the Trop!

I digress.

The Rays are coming off a brief two-game series with the Cubs, which they split. The Red Sox had won six in a row before dropping the finale against Texas on Wednesday, 8-2.

(Stats: ESPN)

Offensively speaking, both teams pair well against one another … although the Red Sox shown a bit more production over the last 14 days, and overall. The Rays have scored five fewer runs than Boston (412 vs 417) overall, and are averaging 4.85 runs per game. The Red Sox are averaging about 11/100 more of a run per game than Tampa Bay.

The biggest difference lies in the pitching staffs, as the Red Sox have the lowest cumulative ERA in the American League at 3.80, while Rays hurlers have performed to a 4.19 cumulative ERA. Upon closer inspection, Tampa Bay’s starters have posted a 4.10 ERA/4.24 FIP, while the ‘pen carries a 4.34 ERA/4.08 FIP. Compare that to Boston’s starters which have posted an overall 4.23 ERA/3.90 FIP, while the relievers are performing to a 2.99 ERA/3.48 FIP.

All this is to say that the Rays’ offense must strike early against Boston’s starters, while Tampa Bay’s pitching staff must do something it has had a hard time with all season: hold onto late leads. It won’t be easy.

As of July 5, 2017. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will lean on Jacob Faria (3-0, 2.23 ERA, 2.84 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (5-3, 4.08 ERA, 5.51 FIP), Alex Cobb (6-6, 4.01 ERA, 4.22 FIP), and Chris Archer (7-5, 3.95 ERA, 3.02 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (11-3, 2.61 ERA, 2.02 FIP), Drew Pomeranz (8-4, 3.64 ERA, 3.63 FIP), Rick Porcello (4-10, 5.01 ERA, 4.21 FIP), and old friend David Price (4-2, 4.02 ERA, 4.45 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Faria gave up just four hits and two earned runs over 6-2/3 innings, while striking out six in his last start. It was his fifth consecutive quality start to begin his big league career. The right-hander became just one of three pitchers since start of 2013 to begin his career with five straight quality starts; Mashiro Tanaka (2016) and Odrisamer Despaigne (2005) are the other two. He also leads MLB rookies with with 35 strikeouts and a 2.23 ERA, while his 7.00 K/BB ratio ranks third in American League behind Corey Kluber and his opponent Thursday night, Chris Sale.

Sale is coming off what could have been his sharpest outing of the season. The southpaw held Toronto scoreless and scattered just four hits over seven innings, while fanning 11. Sale has notched double-digit strikeouts 11 times this year. Boston’s ace continued his dominant first half with another gem Saturday. He’s now second in the AL, behind Jason Vargas, for wins with 11, while his 12.43 K/9 is the best in baseball among starters. Including his two previous wins this season against Tampa Bay, Sale has gone 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA over his career against the Rays, and 2-2 with a 1.44 ERA at the Trop. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-3), Logan Morrison (3-9, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (14-43, 2 2B. 2 RBI, 4 BB)

Odorizzi has remained competitive in spite of a mechanical hiccup. He picked up his fifth win of the season on Saturday in Baltimore, where he allowed three runs over five innings. Odorizzi was provided 10 runs of support and easily cruised to victory while throwing an inefficient 111 pitches in just five innings (an average of 22.2 pitches per inning). Odorizzi has given up exactly three earned runs in five of his last six outings, although a rather beefy 5.51 FIP belies his overall 4.08 ERA. He is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA at the Trop this season, where he’s averaged just over six innings of work per start.

Pomeranz held Toronto to one run over six innings in his last start. Pomeranz scattered baserunners throughout his start and never faced any real danger aside from a second inning sac-fly from Steve Pearce. Thanks to that outing, along with his previous start against the Twins, the southpaw has lowered his season ERA to the lowest point it’s been since early April. Pomeranz has gone at least five innings with two earned runs or fewer allowed in seven of his last eight starts. The Rays have had success against Pomeranz this season, tagging him for seven runs over two starts — a total of 7-1/3 innings of work. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Corey Dickerson (3-12, 3B, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (7-16, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (2-8)

Cobb was done in by early home runs by the Orioles in his last start Sunday at Baltimore, although he managed to give Tampa Bay a bullpen saving 6-1/3 innings of work. Aside from that start, the right-hander has given up more than three runs just three times since the start of May (totaling 78-2/3 innings). Cobb’s usage of his split-changeup continues to evolve, as he leaned on it 16.05% of the time in June (up 8% from May), while it’s depth has improved — dropping an average of 7.37 inches before it reaches the plate. He’s 1-0 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts against Boston in 2017.

Porcello held the Rangers in check for most of his start against the Rangers Monday night before Craig Kimbrel blew the save. Be that as it may, the reigning Cy Young Award winner has given up at least three earned runs in seven consecutive starts, and has been treading water for most of the season. Tampa Bay finally figured the right-hander out, and has pounded him for 13 runs (11 earned) over 10-2/3 innings this season. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (2-5, 2 RBI), Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (8-25, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (13-50, 5 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Morrison (10-27, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, Shane Peterson (1-2, HR, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (7-23, HR, RBI, BB)

Archer not only collected his 11th quality start of the season on Tuesday, but also tallied his first career hit and RBI. The Rays have won in four of Archer’s last five starts, while he’s posted at least six innings over his last nine. He did put an uncomfortable number of men on base in this one, but he escaped several jams and limited the damage, which amounted to three runs total. And though he labored through an inefficient 116 pitches over six innings of work, Archer he threw an impressive 69% for strikes, including 24 whiffs.

Price blanked the opposition for the first time this season on Tuesday against the Rangers, while striking out nine. The former Ray scattered six hits, yet he held Texas scoreless as the BoSox raced to an early lead. Price left the game in the seventh inning because of an apparent injury to his pitching hand, although John Farrell said afterward that he was removed because of a high pitch count and long sixth inning. The Rays have had a lot of success against their former ace, tagging him for 23 runs (21 earned) over seven starts and 45 innings of work. They’ll try to keep it rolling in the final game before the All-Star Break on Sunday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6), Trevor Plouffe (9-25, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller continued his rehab stint with the Durham Bulls on Wednesday, going 2-for-4 with a leadoff homer, a run, an RBI, and a strikeout. He could return to the Rays before the end of the upcoming series.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox, part two — a series preview

May 12, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Kevin Kiermaier takes a moment in the outfield after committing his fourth fielding gaffe (third error) in three days. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic)

Changes of scenery can be good. Often times I just drive, it doesn’t matter where. I put my foot to the floor and let the wind blow through my hair. After a 3-6 homestand, including another series loss to the Royals, a change of scenery would serve the Tampa Bay Rays well. First stop Boston, where they’ll start a three-game series with the Red Sox on Friday.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays have fallen a bit below .500 thanks to the loss to the Royals. They also have lost five of their last seven, including the two of three they against Toronto. It’s worth noting both the Royals and the Blue Jays are two of the most disappointing teams in the league so far this year.

It certainly doesn’t help that Tampa Bay dropped three of four against Boston in April, this despite posting a positive run differential over the span of the series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (3-1, 3.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP), Blake Snell (0-3, 3.96 ERA, 5.03 FIP), and Matt Andriese (2-1, 3.12 ERA, 4.56 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Rick Porcello (2-4, 3.95 ERA, 3.97 FIP), Chris Sale (3-2, 1.92 ERA, 1.45 FIP), and Drew Pomeranz (3-2, 5.23 ERA, 4.70 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over eight innings on Sunday, although he came away with the loss. He is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts, and 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five career starts at Fenway Park — including his last start against the Red Sox, when he relinquished four runs on 11 hits in five innings.

Porcello is starting to look like the reigning Cy Young Award winner that he is. Over his last four starts, he has gone at least six innings in each and has a 27-to-5 K/BB in 26-2⁄3 innings. Interestingly enough, the start prior to this run was against Tampa Bay when he allowed eight runs, with four home runs mixed in, over just 4-1⁄3 innings. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (7-22, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (7-23, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (10-24, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (3-9), Steven Souza Jr. (7-23, HR, RBI, BB)

Snell continued to struggle with fastball command on Monday against Kansas City, as he allowed four runs on 10 hits and a walk, while fanning two in five innings. He now has pitched five innings or fewer in six consecutive starts. The southpaw allowed four runs in five innings against Boston in April, although only one of those runs was earned.

Sale is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing a season-high four runs to Minnesota, yet he still struck out 10 and earned the win. Sale struck out 12 Rays over seven innings on April 15, and has double-digit strikeouts in his last six starts — two away from tying the Major League record that he shares with Pedro Martinez. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-6)

Andriese allowed two earned runs in 5-1/3 innings against against Kansas City on Tuesday, coming away with a no-decision. He, however, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two career appearances at Fenway, and 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career appearances against the Red Sox. Andriese’s strikeout rate is around average, his walk rate is in good shape, and he has juxtaposed the home runs he’s allowed this year by inducing a bunch of ground balls. This will be his first time facing the Red Sox in 2017.

Pomeranz is coming off a rough start, giving up five runs and two homers in the first inning against the Brewers. Pomeranz last faced Tampa Bay on April 16, and he had an uneven start, giving up five runs over 4-1/3 innings, but also striking out 10. Home runs have been a major issue for the lefty this season, and he’s now given up a total of seven over 31 innings, counterbalancing the 36 strikeouts he has collected. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (7-15, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI), Colby Rasmus (1-4, RBI)