X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview, part three

By Leave a Comment

Josh Fleming will get the start on Thursday against the Red Sox.

After an ugly 0-2 series in Washington, followed by the off-day on Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays return home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will start a four-game series against the Red Sox on Thursday. Boston is coming off of a doubleheader/series split against the Phillies.

The Rays enter play 13 games above .500 and with a 100% chance of a playoff berth according to FanGraphs. They have a magic number of 12 to make playoffs, and 15 to win AL East.

Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back from a small rough patch, having lost three of their last four games, while Boston has had a frustrating season, although they have won three of the last five contests. The Rays still lead the AL East, but they only have a four-game cushion over Toronto. The offense has really dipped over the last five games, as the team has batted just .195 and stranded 34 runners on base.

The Rays have been effectively pitched to over the last few series resulting in a lot of weak contact and a jump in strikeouts from the likes of Willy Adames, Brandon Lowe, and Austin Meadows (among others). There, however, has been some bad luck at play too; over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay has posted a .274 BABIP — 16 points lower than their season average of .290.

Contrast that with Boston, which has outperformed the Rays over the last 14 days (122 wRC+ vs 102 wRC+). Yet, the Red Sox have gone just 5-9 over that stretch largely because a pitching staff that is, frankly, total crap. Boston’s corps of arms maintain a 6.73 ERA and 6.03 FIP since August 29.

The Rays are 5-1 in the season series with the Red Sox and boast a +19 run differential. Put another way, Tampa Bay has scored 7.83 runs per game (RPG) this season against Boston, while relinquishing an average of 4.67 RPG. In an ideal world, the Red Sox could be the cure for the Rays offensive malaise with 17 games left to play.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will lean on Josh Fleming (3-0, 3.52 ERA), Blake Snell (3-1, 3.74 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.35 ERA), and Charlie Morton (1-2, 4.94 ERA). Ron Roenicke is expected to counter with Mike Kickham (1-0, 5.40 ERA), pitchers to be named before Friday and Saturday’s contests, and Martín Pérez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) in the series finale.

Josh Fleming got the start in Friday’s contest against the Marlins and allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings and 73 pitches (45 strikes, 62% strike rate, 5 swinging strikes, 9% SwStr%). He struck out two and did not issue a walk. It wasn’t Fleming’s best performance — he gave up a pair of homers to a pair of former Rays, Corey Dickerson and Jesus Aguilar — yet the offense and the relief corps picked him up and carried Fleming to his third win of the season. He is a contact pitcher, which leaves the door open for some flareups, but Fleming maintains good control, so he, ideally, will make some adjustments before his next start.

Mike Kickham pitched two scoreless innings Saturday against Toronto, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out four. Kickham entered the game with Boston down a run, and they responded by scoring twice in the bottom of the ninth inning and giving him his first big league win. It was an improvement over his first appearance of the season when he allowed three runs in three innings versus the Braves. Kickham relies primarily on an  86 mph cutter and a 79 mph curveball, while also mixing in a 90 mph four-seam fastball.

Blake Snell got the start against the Marlins on Saturday and looked to continue his success against the Marlins. And in the early goings, it looked like that would be the case as the southpaw fanned six, and allowed just one hit and a walk over the first three innings. However, things changed in the fourth when Jesus Aguilar walked for the second time in the game, and Brian Anderson — who had been 0-for-14 against Tampa Bay this season — doubled to right-center. Lewis Brinson struck out on a fastball, but the ball went off Michael Perez’s glove for a passed ball, allowing Aguilar to score and Anderson to move into third.

The Marlins extended their lead in the fifth when Aguilar hit a one-out flare to right, then went to second on Anderson’s grounder to first. Snell was able to force the next batter, Brinson, to ground into the shift, yet Brandon Lowe sailed his throw to first, which went into the Rays dugout, scoring Aguilar. The infield hit and the throwing error, which came with Anderson at third, plated a run. Miami wasn’t done. Two pitches later, former Ray Corey Dickerson homered to left-center, capping the rally. Dickerson is now 3-for-16 this season against his former team, and all three hits have been long balls.

Snell finished the frame, which ultimately ended his night. All told, he allowed six hits and two walks while striking out eight. He was charged with five runs (four earned) in his first loss of the season.

As dominant as Snell has been to start games, he has struggled in the middle innings, with Snell entering Saturday’s contest with an ugly 11.25 ERA in the fourth inning — a trend that continued Saturday.

I need to be better, that’s just the bottom line. I’m happy with how I feel, I’m happy with how my pitches are working, I’m happy with how I’m learning, I’m happy with how I’m watching video and seeing what I should do and then doing it for the most part. There’s a lot of good takeaways, but I have to put this team in a spot to win and I gotta give them more innings, because I know I can do that, and I know that’s very attainable.

I just have to be more ready to throw that first pitch with intent. It’s me. It’s not physical. I can throw strikes any time I want. It’s 100 percent me, and I have to do a better job of that. I’m going to. I feel really good, man. I really do feel good. It’s going to start going my way, I know it is, just with all the work I’ve been putting in.

I just have to be in the zone and compete in the zone, because my stuff plays, and I know it does. I just have to do it. That’s what I’m looking forward to in my next start on Friday. I’m going to learn a lot, I’m going to get better, and on Friday we’ll see what I learned and what I didn’t learn. I’m looking forward to that.

— Blake Snell

In 11 starts against the Red Sox, Snell is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA. He blanked Boston across five innings on August 12 while striking out six.

TBA

Tyler Glasnow battled a migraine in Sunday’s game against the Marlins. Glasnow allowed three runs on four hits and three walks across 5-1/3 innings. He struck out nine on 105 pitches. He has now struck out at least eight in each of his last five starts and will take a 4.35 ERA into his start against Boston on Friday. The Red Sox beat up on Glasnow on August 13, tagging him five runs on eight hits and two walks, although they struck out eight times.

TBA

Charlie Morton got the start for Tampa Bay, and even though he allowed three runs on four hits and a walk over five innings of work, he took a big step forward in his second start off the Injured List. Morton — who went two-plus innings and threw 36 pitches in his last turn on the mound — worked five efficient innings on Monday. Morton threw 45 of 57 pitches for strikes (79% strike rate) and retired his final seven batters. The right-hander stymied Boston back on August 4, allowing just one run on five hits (including a solo home run) across 5-2/3 strong innings. Morton struck out five.

Martín Pérez coughed up four runs on five hits and six walks over five innings against the Phillies. He struck out two. The southpaw’s command was almost nonexistent in this one, as Pérez also uncorked a wild pitch and threw only 47 of his 86 pitches for strikes (55% strike rate). The southpaw maintains a 4.40 ERA and a 1.29 K/BB through 47 innings on the season. In his last start against the Rays, Pérez allowed two runs on three hits (including a home run) and two walks across 5-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Mike Brosseau (3-7, 2 2B, HR), Brandon Lowe (2-5), Kevan Smith (1-3, 2B)

TNWN: Rays vs Red Sox part two — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

Michael Pérez came up with a pair of big runs batted in during the four-game set against the Yankees, including a walk-off base hit in the series finale. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a successful 4-2 homestand which included a series win against the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays embark on their longest road trip of the truncated season — a 10-game, 11-day jaunt through Boston, Toronto Buffalo, and the Bronx. The first stop is Fenway, where the Rays will begin a four-game set against the Red Sox on Monday. Boston took two-of-three from the Blue Jays over the weekend.

Aside from a lopsided 8-4 loss in the first game of a doubleheader on Saturday (in which Sean Gilmartin — husband of professional asshole Kayleigh McEnany — gave up two home runs in relief of Tyler Glasnow), the Rays looked like, well … the Rays against the Yankees. They limited New York to an average of 3.75 runs per game because they kept the ball in the park; home runs account for approximately 70% of the Yankees’ offensive production. The pitching gave up a total of three home runs. When you subtract Gilmartin from the equation — cough, which the Rays did on Sunday when they designated the hurler for assignment — the average run total across the four-game set drops to three.

The Rays were also advantageous at the plate, scoring nine two-out runs — 75% of their total run output over the life of the series.

I can’t believe Brandon Lowe would be that disrespectful to the Yankees by looking into their dugout. Oh, the ghastly horror of it all.

In the finale, Tampa Bay found itself in a late 3-0 hole but rallied to earn the win and take three-out-of-four in the series. Michael Brosseau was the only player with two hits in the game; Brosseau and Brandon Lowe each homered in the contest while Michael Perez hit the walk-off RBI base hit in the bottom of the ninth. However, aside from their play at home, Tampa Bay had been awful over the last week and change. They have to get things going in a positive direction if they hope to live up to their expectations as a contender for the American League pennant. To their credit, the Rays got back to .500 and made up ground in the AL East. Now, they need to start adding some separation between the win and loss columns.

Meanwhile, the Massholes Red Sox managed to win the rubber match of their home set against the Blue Jays to win the series. They enter this set tied for fourth in the AL East, 4-1/2 games behind the Yankees for the top spot in the division. Boston collected just four hits on Sunday, although three of them left the yard. Mitch Moreland homered twice and Rafael Devers hit his second of the year. Moreland’s second of the game was the walk-off homer that gave the Red Sox the win.

The AL East rivals split a two-game series at the Trop, with Tuesday’s starter, Martín Pérez, blanking the Rays across five innings. Time will tell if familiarity breeds contempt, and the Rays’ hitters will better be equipped to beat up on the finesse lefty, as well as the rest of Boston’s rotation.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 3.78 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Tuesday’s contest, Blake Snell (0-0, 3.38 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (0-2, 3.78 ERA) over the next four days. Ron Roenicke will counter with Colten Brewer (0-0, 2.57 ERA) at some point in the series opener, Martín Pérez (2-1, 3.45 ERA), Zack Godley (0-1, 3.97 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

Ryan Yarbrough allowed five earned runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out five across five innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Yarbrough had a scoreless outing through 3-2/3 innings but surrendered a two-run home run to Alex Verdugo to open the scoring. He completely fell apart in the sixth inning, allowing all five batters he faced to reach base, with the big blow being a two-run home run off the bat of Michael Chavis. Despite the poor outing, Yarbrough maintains a 3.78 ERA across 16-2/3 innings to begin the season. He is 3-2 with a 5.36 ERA against the Red Sox, and 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA at Fenway.

Colten Brewer will likely cover a bulk of the innings for Monday’s game against the Rays, either as a long reliever or a traditional starter. Considering Brewer hasn’t tossed more than 44 pitches in any of his five appearances on the season, Boston likely won’t ask him to push much further beyond the 60-to-75-pitches. Brewer relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph cutter and an 81 mph curveball with exceptional bite and glove-side movement, while also mixing in a hard 90 mph slider. He is 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA in 10 games (8-1/3 IP) against the Rays, and 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 35 appearances (35 IP) at Fenway. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.

TBA

Martín Pérez allowed four hits and three walks while striking out four across five scoreless innings against the Rays on Wednesday. Pérez allowed a double to the first batter he faced, but managed work out of the early jam with a pop-up, ground out, and a strikeout. The lefty faced a similar scenario in the fourth inning but remained unscathed. Pérez has given himself a thin margin for error across three starts this season, striking out 11 and walking nine across 15-2/3 innings. Even with his success on Wednesday, Pérez is 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA against the Rays, and 2-2 with a 6.18 ERA at Fenway. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (4-12, 2 2B), Brandon Lowe (2-5), Mike Zunino (6-20, 3 HR)

Blake Snell got the start Friday and fired three shutout innings against the Yankees. He allowed no hits and two walks while punching out five on 59 pitches (32 strikes, 54% strike rate). Even though Snell didn’t allow any hits or runs Friday, he struggled with his command. Even so, the southpaw worked around leadoff walks to DJ LeMahieu and Gary Sanchez in the first and third innings (respectively). Snell had hoped to go four-to-five innings, although his struggles in throwing strikes limited his mound time, although he did increase his count if just slightly. Still, he lowered his ERA to 3.38 ERA (4.25 FIP), and his K:BB now stands at 3.5:1 over eight innings across his first three starts of the season.

Me going three innings and then having to cover, I mean that’s a tough task. They’re always ready. … This bullpen is just a great bullpen. Whenever I get out of the game, I’m never worried. These guys are coming in, they’re getting it done, and it’s a great feeling as a starter to know your bullpen is that stacked and they’re going to fight.

— Blake Snell

Zack Godley tossed four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out three against the Blue Jays on Saturday. Godley did his part Saturday, yet the Red Sox mustered just one run on four hits, which clearly wasn’t enough. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 11 strikeouts across 11-1/3 innings this season. Godley relies primarily on an 89 mph cutter that has some natural sink and a hard 83 mph 12-6 curveball, while also mixing in an 83 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone. He is 0-0 with a 6.74 ERA in two outings (4 IP) against the Rays, and 0-0 with a 0.68 ERA in three games (13-1/3 IP) at Fenway. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (6-25, 3B), Hunter Renfroe (5-20, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (2-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed four runs on five hits in just 2-2/3 innings of work on Saturday, striking out five while walking three. Glasnow matched Gerrit Cole with a pair of scoreless frames to start the game, getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the second inning, but he allowed a two-run homer to Mike Ford and a two-run double to Gio Urshela in the third, forcing him from the game. Glasnow now owns a 5.56 ERA through his first three starts, with a 2.38:1 K:BB and a 30.0% HR/FB rate. Glasnow is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox, and 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA at Fenway.

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Charlie Morton has been placed on the 10-day Injured List retroactive to Sunday, August 9. Morton, who left Sunday’s start with right shoulder inflammation, joins Yonny Chirinos as the second Rays’ starter on the shelf.

After Sunday’s game, Morton said he didn’t think the injury was serious. It’s possible that with an off-day on Monday, Morton could return off the IL after missing just one start if the stay is a minimal one.

— Senior VP/GM Erik Neander said Yonny Chirinos’ (right tricep inflammation) IL stint could be a minimal one, and the right-hander could return for the series in Buffalo.

— More on the status of both hurlers should be known later this afternoon when Rays skipper Kevin Cash speaks with the media during his daily Zoom call.

— Tampa Bay has not yet listed a starter for Tuesday’s game and could start Trevor Richards in Morton’s spot for the time being. Richards threw 76 pitches across four innings on Sunday and could also be used with an opener in front of him.

Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), The five-man taxi squad includes two pitchers who could provide length in Anthony Banda, a lefty who is on the 40-man roster, and right Aaron Slegers, who is not on the roster currently.

LBWMF: Morton and Meadows lead the Rays to victory over Boston, 5-1

By Leave a Comment

Michael Perez crossed the plate in the fifth inning after reaching on an HBP. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Sound the horns and light up the roof, the Tampa Bay Rays snapped their five-game losing streak on Tuesday, defeating the Massholes Boston Red Sox, 5-1. The Rays will look for their sixth consecutive home win, and third consecutive series win, on Wednesday.

Charlie Morton got the start for the Rays and allowed just one earned run on five hits and no walks while punching out five across 5-2/3 innings. The right-hander threw 65 of 93 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) and coaxed 14 swings and misses (22% whiff rate). Morton held Boston’s lineup in check, with the only major damage coming on a solo homer by Mitch Moreland. Most importantly, Morton’s velocity ticked up, as his fastball sat between 93 and 94 miles per hour for much of his start — an increase of one to two mph from his previous two outings — while hitting 95 mph on a few occasions. Morton was able to lower his ERA to 5.52 (4.09 FIP) across 14-2/3 total innings this season. His 7:1 K:BB suggests even better results are on the way.

In the meantime, it looked like we were in for another recent Rays game against Nathan Eovaldi — and by that, I mean similar to the five losses at the hands of Atlanta and the Orioles. Joey Wendle was the only player to reach base for Tampa Bay the first time through the order, as he tripled to centerfield with two out in the bottom of the second inning. Yet Hunter Renfroe (who would become one of the heroes of the ball-game two innings later) struck out looking at a 97 mph fastball on the inside corner of the plate.

Not content with trailing in nine consecutive games (and 10 of their last 11), Tampa Bay took the go-ahead lead in the fourth inning and never looked back. It all started with two outs — shocker, I know — when Yoshi Tsutsugo walked on a borderline full-count pitch. After Wendle singled to left, putting two runners on and moving Tsutsugo into scoring position, Renfroe stepped into the box.

On the first pitch of the at-bat, Renfroe hit a pop-up that glanced off the B-ring in foul territory, making it an unplayable/dead ball. It would be a lucky bounce for the Rays.

With a new lease on life, Renfroe lashed a two-run two-bagger to the right-center gap for a one-run lead.

Tampa Bay was able to extend the lead in the fifth inning after Michael Perez was hit by a pitch to start the frame. Austin Meadows drove a 1-0, 93 mph four-seamer to right-center for an RBI triple, scoring Perez from first just ahead of the relay throw extending the lead. Brandon Lowe followed with an RBI single to right, scoring Meadows and giving Tampa Bay a three-run advantage.

It’s been 10 months since I’ve played an actual major-league game that counts. It’s just good to be back out there with the guys and contribute like I did. That’s the cherry on top for tonight. It’s been a long, hard road this year, for everybody in general, but it’s definitely gratifying and I’m excited to keep moving forward.

— Austin Meadows

After finishing the sixth inning in relief of Morton, by getting pinch-hitter Michael Chavis to bounce out to short, Aaron Loup took the mound again in the seventh and pitched a perfect frame. As Dave and Andy always declare, any lead is good, although you would prefer at least a “slam lead” … a lead of four runs or more. And Tampa Bay would get just that at the bottom of the inning.

Lowe collected his second hit of the game, a one-out single off lefty Josh Osich, then moved into third on Yandy Diaz’s base hit off the glove of Xander Bogaerts in left. Finally, Ji-Man Choi lifted a sacrifice-fly to into left, scoring Lowe and capping the scoring.

Pete Fairbanks worked around a walk and an error for a scoreless eighth, striking out J.D. Martinez and Bogaerts along the way. Yet the Rays ‘pen would face one last uprising an inning later.

Ryan Thompson took the mound in the ninth and allowed one-out singles to Christian Vazquez and Kevin Pillar. Mired in an 0-20 stretch to start the season, Jackie Bradley Jr. followed with a chopper to short and just beat out the responding throw from Wendle for an infield hit.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1291004332398305280?s=20

With the bases juiced, Kevin Cash called on Nick Anderson who promptly poured cold water on the Red Sox. Anderson struck out Jose Peraza looking at a mid-90’s fastball before getting Andrew Benintendi for a similar outcome, ending the game on an 83 mph curveball for his first save of the 2020 campaign.

The New What Next

Ryan Yarbrough (0-1, 1.54 ERA) will take the mound in the finale of this short series, pitching opposite of fellow southpaw Martín Pérez (1-1, 5.06 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough was charged with a tough-luck loss against Atlanta on Thursday, allowing just two runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six across 6-1/3 innings. Yarbrough worked his way into a second-inning jam after hitting Adam Duvall with a pitch, then allowing Dansby Swanson to score on Marcell Ozuna’s on an RBI single. Later, he surrendered Atlanta’s final run of the night on a sac-fly to Austin Riley. Yet it was an otherwise effective performance as the southpaw threw 56 of 87 pitches for strikes (64% strike rate). Unfortunately, the offense failed to provide enough run support to get him the win. The finesse lefty is 3-1 with a 4.84 ERA in nine career outings (three starts) against Boston.

Martín Pérez allowed two runs on two hits and four walks while striking out five across 5-2/3 innings against the Mets on Thursday. Pérez was effective in all but the third inning when he walked two batters and hit another, loading the bases for Jeff McNeil, who singled into left field to drive in two. It was a bounce-back performance from Pérez after he surrendered four earned runs in his first start with Boston. The 29-year-old southpaw relies primarily on an 88 mph cutter with strong cutting action and a whiffy 83 mph circle changeup with some natural sink, while also mixing in a 91 mph sinker, a 91 mph four-seam fastball, and a 77 mph 12-6 curveball. Pérez is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 career outings (eight starts) against Tampa Bay). Key Matchup: Mike Zunino (6-18)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview; Meadows activated from the IL

Rays 8/5/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Díaz 3B
  2. Meadows DH
  3. Martínez 1B
  4. Renfroe RF
  5. Brosseau LF
  6. B. Lowe 2B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Zunino C
  9. Kiermaier CF

Noteworthiness

— Besides Meadows, Lowe and Wendle both collected multi-hit games, with Wendle going 3-for-4 on the night.

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview; Meadows activated from the IL

By Leave a Comment

At least Yonny Chirinos looked good in Baltimore.

After a well-needed off-day on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back on track when the Boston Red Sox come into town for a two-game series. Tampa Bay went 4-1 on the opening homestand, yet lost all five games on the team’s first road trip, averaging just 2.6 runs per game. Boston was swept by the Yankees and also had a Monday off-day.

The Rays trailed in four of their five road games (nine of 10 overall), and had to deal with multi-run deficits in the majority of them. They scored first just one of those games and just two overall this season, the lowest total in the American League. On Sunday, Tampa Bay was down by just one run until the sixth inning, yet the bullpen gave up three in the seventh as the game slipped away. Looking at things from a similar perspective, 3/4 of their wins this season have been of the come-from-behind variety, and that’s not a sustainable game-winning strategy over the long-haul.

A team-wide .210 BA/.303 OBP/.368 SLG/.671 OPS slash line certainly hasn’t helped the cause. And while the Rays are drawing walks at a decent clip, a 24.7% strikeout rate, paired with the aforementioned slash line, tends to drown out any superlatives.

As Joe Smith (The Athletic) writes, some positives have bled through, although the big boppers have left a lot to be desired.

There have been some bright spots, like a healthy Joey Wendle hitting .292, Renfroe providing some pop (two homers, seven RBIs) and Lowe’s team-leading eight RBIs (.286 average). Willy Adames is getting on base (.438 on-base percentage)

But you look at Kevin Kiermaier (.200 batting average), Yoshi Tsutsugo (.200), Ji-Man Choi (.167, 11 strikeouts) and Yandy Díaz (.167), there’s plenty of guys who have more to give. Renfroe, despite his power, is hitting .182. Catcher Mike Zunino is off to a 2-for-23 start (.087 batting average). Anderson believes they’re bound to snap out of some of their slumps.

— Joe Smith

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have allowed the second-most runs per game in the American League, yet they have been marginally better at the plate, outpacing them in slugging (.425), OPS (.741), ISO (.168), wOBA (.324), wRC+ (105), and wRAA (3.3). They will enter the series with their two best hurlers on the mound.

(The Rays over/under .500 thus far.)

Smith also made mention of the intangibles that are currently impacting Tampa Bay.

There have been some uncharacteristic mistakes both defensively and on the basepaths, as shown during the series in Baltimore. Adames already committed his fourth error of the season on Saturday, with the Rays leading the AL with 10. They had two more errors in four of their last seven games.

Cash said Sunday that he knows players like Adames will continue to work on their defense, and the key as a staff is to remain positive with them, knowing that they’re fully capable of executing. We’ve already seen Kiermaier flash his Gold Glove-caliber defense, including a highlight-reel relay throw.

— Joe Smith

In short, this is a must-win series against an AL East rival that is also faltering. If the Rays want to come out of this series at .500, they must turn up the heat in the batter’s box. And if that means temporarily benching Renfroe, Kiermaier, Zunino, and Margot, so be it. Moreover, the fielders must become more dependable, and the pitching staff, which is still ninth in the league with a 3.76 ERA, cannot afford to give up any late runs as it had in Atlanta and Baltimore.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (0-1, 8.00 ERA) and Ryan Yarbrough (0-1, 1.54 ERA) over the next two days. Ron Roenicke will counter with Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.45 ERA), and Martín Pérez (1-1, 5.06 ERA).

Charlie Morton bounced back nicely from his Opening Day start, throwing five innings of two-run ball, allowing six hits, and one walk while striking out seven. He threw 80 pitches (55 strikes, 69% strike rate), and coaxed 13 swings and misses (24% whiff rate). Morton’s second start of the season was a marked improvement over his first in which he allowed six earned runs. The right-hander was hurt by a third-inning two-run blast off the bat of Freddie Freeman, although he held Atlanta scoreless in each of his other four frames. Morton was the beneficiary of three defensive gems during his outing, which limited the damage against him.

In the first inning, Ronald Acuña Jr. tried to score from first on a double to right-center. However, Kevin Kiermaier threw a bullet to Brandon Lowe, who then fired to Mike Zunino to cut down Acuña Jr. at the plate.

Then, down by a pair in the third inning, Kiermaier made a sliding catch to rob Matt Adams of a hit with a runner aboard, preventing another run from crossing the plate.

Finally, in the fifth inning, Manuel Margot made a leaping catch against the left-field wall to take away an extra-base hit from Adams and a run or two.

Morton is 5-1 with a 4.09 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox.

Nathan Eovladi, the former Ray, allowed two runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out four across five innings against the Mets. At 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, Eovaldi is the clear ace of the Red Sox staff. Still, the right-hander’s boasts a two steps forward one step back track record, which the Rays anemic offense will try to remind him of on Tuesday. In case you forgot, Eovaldi relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action and slight arm-side run and a whiffy 90 mph slider, while also mixing in an 88 mph splitter with natural sink, a 93 mph cutter, and a 79 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and glove-side movement. Over his career against Tampa Bay, he is 2-4 with a 5.45 ERA. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (3-9, 3B), Joey Wendle (3-5, 2B, HR)

Ryan Yarbrough was charged with a tough-luck loss against Atlanta on Thursday, allowing just two runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six across 6-1/3 innings. Yarbrough worked his way into a second-inning jam after hitting Adam Duvall with a pitch, then allowing Dansby Swanson to score on Marcell Ozuna’s on an RBI single. Later, he surrendered Atlanta’s final run of the night on a sac-fly to Austin Riley. Yet it was an otherwise effective performance as the southpaw threw 56 of 87 pitches for strikes (64% strike rate). Unfortunately, the offense failed to provide enough run support to get him the win. The finesse lefty is 3-1 with a 4.84 ERA in nine career outings (three starts) against Boston.

Martín Pérez allowed two runs on two hits and four walks while striking out five across 5-2/3 innings against the Mets on Thursday. Pérez was effective in all but the third inning when he walked two batters and hit another, loading the bases for Jeff McNeil, who singled into left field to drive in two. It was a bounce-back performance from Pérez after he surrendered four earned runs in his first start with Boston. The 29-year-old southpaw relies primarily on an 88 mph cutter with strong cutting action and a whiffy 83 mph circle changeup with some natural sink, while also mixing in a 91 mph sinker, a 91 mph four-seam fastball, and a 77 mph 12-6 curveball. Pérez is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 career outings (eight starts) against Tampa Bay). Key Matchup: Mike Zunino (6-18)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have reinstated Austin Meadows (COVID-19) from the Injured List and optioned RHP Trevor Richards to the alternate training site in Port Charlotte.

— The Rays announced that they have placed OF Manuel Margot on the bereavement list due to the death of his father, and they have recalled OF Brian O’Grady from the Port Charlotte alternate site camp.

During Spring Training, O’Grady hit two home runs and posted a 1.139 OPS across 25 plate appearances. His success continued into Summer Camp when he decimated pitches once again.

Our thoughts go out to the Margot family for their loss.

— Hey Red Sox, we aren’t fans of Massholes or uninformed opinions. Kindly wear a mask, don’t leave your hotel rooms, wash your hands, and stay socially distant from one another to help us stave off another COVID-19 spike.

TNWN: Rays vs Red Sox — one last series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays return home on Friday, where they went 9-1 on their most recent homestand. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays will continue the push toward a postseason run on Friday when they open a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. After taking two-of-three from the Los Angeles Angels, the Rays split an Interleague meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ll try to avoid a setback against the slumping Red Sox, who are coming off a series loss to the San Francisco Giants.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

With Oakland leading the pack in the AL Wildcard race, the second spot could come down to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, who enter play neck-and-neck for the final playoff spot. The Rays next six games will be against the Red Sox and Yankees, putting them in a situation where they’ll have to play their best ball of the season to ensure they’re still playing in October.

Tampa Bay recently dropped a couple of road games to the Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels which could come back to haunt them. Yet, there is hope as Cleveland is set to start a pair of tough Interleague series against the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. Whatever the case, the Rays still control their own destiny. They need to win as many games as possible, starting Friday.

The Rays enter the series with a “magic number” to clinch a Wildcard spot (by eliminating Cleveland) of 10 — the needed combination of Tampa Bay wins and Cleveland losses. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, don’t expect a playoff berth in this homestand. Even in a best-case, or worst case, scenario, it would take six more days, so until Wednesday, for that race to be decided. And that would be with one team winning all its games and the other losing all its game. Barring that extreme, and with the Indians off Monday and the Rays off Thursday, the more realistic scenario is this being settled — bottles popped or dreams shattered — in Toronto.

After their impressive 8-7 11-inning win over Los Angeles, Tampa Bay has a 54.5% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs (65.2% chance per Baseball Prospectus).

That’s marginally better than Cleveland, who averages out at 50.5% per FanGraphs (39.9% per Baseball Prospectus).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and 9-6 in the season series against Boston. The Red Sox, who have been stunningly bad of late, are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, although they have won five of six games against Tampa Bay at the Trop.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (15-6, 3.16 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 2.03 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-4, 3.78 ERA), and Blake Snell (6-7, 4.19 ERA). Alex Cora is expected to counter with Rick Porcello (13-12, 5.77 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Saturday’s ballgame, Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 6.19 ERA), and Jhoulys Chacín (0-0, 0.00 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Charlie Morton limited the Angels to three runs on six hits and a walk while striking out four across six innings on Friday. Aside from a third-inning, two-run home run to Kole Calhoun, Morton turned in yet another quality start en route to his second consecutive 15-win season. This time around, the right-hander has 18 more strikeouts with a similar ERA compared to his previous campaign. Morton will take a 3.16 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 4.21 K/BB. This season Morton is 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox.

Rick Porcello allowed two runs on five hits with one walk across five innings against the Phillies on Sunday. He struck out and six. Porcello gave up yet another homer, but he broke his two-game streak of yielding at least six runs. Porcello has had a disappointing season, posting a 1.7 HR/9, which is tied for the highest in his career, and a 2.5 BB/9, his highest mark since his rookie season. He also maintains a 5.77 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts across 162-1/3 innings this year. Porcello is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three 2019 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-11, HR, RBI), Jesus Aguilar (2-3, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (6-15, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (3-6, HR, 3 RBI), Matt Duffy (9-24, RBI), Avisail Garcia (12-30, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (14-55, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Michael Perez (1-3, BB), Daniel Robertson (2-7), Joey Wendle (5-12, 2B, BB)

Tyler Glasnow didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, giving up two hits and a walk across three scoreless frames. He struck out five. Glasnow got stretched out to 51 pitches (29 strikes, 57% strike rate) in his second outing since returning from the IL, and looked much sharper in this one than he did last weekend against Toronto. Glasnow has a 3.33 K/BB across five innings in September, and the team will continue gradually ramp-up his workload as it tries to lock down a postseason spot. This season he is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox.

TBA

Ryan Yarbrough allowed six runs on 10 hits and two walks across five innings on Sunday, striking out just three batters. After allowing three runs in the first two innings, Yarbrough settled down before Albert Pujols crushed him with a three-run shot in the fifth. It was the southpaw’s first loss since June 13, which was also the last time he faced the Angels. He carries a 3.78 ERA into his start on Sunday. Yarbrough is 2-0 with a 4.80 ERA in three outings (one start) against Boston this season.

Nathan Eovaldi allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out six across four innings against the Giants on Tuesday. Eovaldi surrendered two solo homers and was sunk by a general lack of command. Most notably, the former Ray walked two of the first three batters he faced to begin the third inning, resulting in a three-run frame. He had pitched fairly well entering Tuesday’s ballgame, allowing only seven earned runs across his prior 16-1/3 innings of work, yet Eovaldi still owns an ugly 5.81 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 52-2/3 innings on the season. The Rays have faced Eovaldi twice in a relief role (1-2/3 innings), tagging the right-hander for three runs on six hits and a walk. Key Matchups: Micahel Brosseau (1-1), Ji-Man Choi (2-3, RBI), Travis d’Arnaud (3-9, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Guillermo Heredia (1-1), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Austin Meadows (1-1, 2B, RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (1-3, BB), Eric Sogard (3-8), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B)

Blake Snell was impressive on Tuesday, pitching two perfect innings while striking out four. Snell showed no rust from his nearly two-month absence after undergoing the knife, tossing 17 of 26 pitches for strikes (65% strike rate) and whiffing four of the six batters he faced. The outing was a great step for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner as Snell looks to build stamina in anticipation of a playoff run. The left-hander maintains a 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 21 starts this season. He’ll likely square off against the Red Sox on Monday, although he will likely be on a short leash.

Jhoulys Chacín allowed two hits and walked two while fanning three over 2-2/3 scoreless frames as an opener on Thursday against the Blue Jays. Chacin, who had not allowed a baserunner in his first two outings with the Red Sox, faced his first bit of adversity since yet avoided any damage. The veteran has thrown 5-2/3 scoreless innings for Boston. Over his career, Chacín is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three outings (one Start). Key Matchups: Avisail Garcia (2-3, 2B), Guillermo Heredia (1-3, RBI), Mike Zunino (2-4, 2B, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— As Marc Topkin also noted, the right players are hot at the right time:

Playoff-chasing and postseason games can produce the occasional unheralded star. But for the most part, teams at this time of year need their best players to be their best players. And the Rays are getting a lot of that, starting with Austin Meadows, who is hitting .407 with eight homers and 19 RBIs on a career-best 16-game hitting streak. Tommy Pham, who had five hits Wednesday, is hitting .351 since Sept. 1. Ji-Man Choi has become an on-base machine. Travis d’Arnaud continues to deliver clutch hits and runs. Willy Adames is hitting .300 over the past two-plus weeks and playing strong defense at short. Closer Emilio Pagan is pitching with confidence.

— Marc Topkin