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A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

TNWN: Rays look for a series sweep in the season finale

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John Curtiss allowed one run on three hits across 2/3 inning on Saturday.

Sunday marks the last day of the 60-game regular season, and with it, one of the strangest campaigns in baseball history. Aside from COVID-19 and the political strife that has made America a powder keg ready to explode, the Tampa Bay Rays have dealt with injuries, other teams literally throwing at their heads (side note: how the fuck has Aroldis Chapman not served his three-game suspension yet?!), an all left-handed-hitting lineup, 12 different players notching saves, an astronomically high strikeout rate in the month of September (31.3% K%), and a 14-5 record in one-run games which is tops in all of baseball. The Rays have already clinched the top seed in the American League playoffs. The only questions remaining are whether they will earn their 40th win, and consequently the mark of the Devil Ray — a .666 winning percentage (WP%) — and who they will play in the opening round. With a win, Tampa Bay would tie for the best 60-game mark at any point in any season in team history.

Tampa Bay enters play with a 39-20 (19 games over .500) record. They are guaranteed to finish with the best WP% in team history, exceeding the .599 mark by the 2008 “worst-to-first” pennant winners. Their current record extrapolates to a dominant 107-55 over a 162 game season. Meanwhile, 20 of the Rays 39 wins are of the come from behind variety, most in the American League. What’s more, Kevin Cash now has the best WP% of any manager in franchise history at .521, surpassing that one guy who managed the Cubs and now calls Anaheim his home. What was his name again? I don’t remember either.

The Rays will face the Blue Jays in the Wildcard round playoffs — starting Tuesday at Tropicana Field — if the Yankees beat Miami or Toronto loses to Baltimore. If the Blue Jays win and the Yankees lose, the Rays will then face New York.

As for Philadelphia, they need a win and some help to qualify for a postseason berth … albeit one with a sub .500 record. They also need Milwaukee and San Francisco to lose.

The New What Next

Josh Fleming (4-0, 3.42 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.06 ERA).

Josh Fleming, who was slated to pitch the bulk of the innings on Tuesday, entered the game after Ryan Thompson and got the final out of the third inning. He also allowed just a grounder in the fourth.

Even so, former Ray Guillermo Heredia battled back from an 0-2 count to earn a free pass, while Ramos hit a single to right on the next pitch, putting two on and moving a runner into scoring position. After Nimmo was hit by a pitch, consequently loading the bases, Jeff McNeil hit an infield RBI single that Willy Adames made a diving stop on, scoring Heredia and bringing the Mets within one. But, J.D. Davis lined to right on the very next pitch, keeping the Rays in front.

Fleming came out in the sixth and got the first two batters before Diego Castillo took over with Alonso, whom he quickly put away, stepping into the box.

After a rough start patch in September, Fleming has allowed just one run over 6-2/3 frames encompassing his last two trips to the mound.

Aaron Nola gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks over six innings on Thursday against Washington. He struck out six. It was Nola’s fourth quality start in his last six outings, a stretch during which he’s posted a 3.03 ERA and 3.85 K/BB across 38-2/3 innings. Nola relies primarily on an 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, a 79 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and some natural sinking action, and a groundball inducing 92 mph sinker with natural sinking action. Key Matchup: Hunter Renfroe (3-7, 2 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Phillies — a series preview

Rays 9/27/20 Starting Lineup

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  1. Wendle SS
  2. B Lowe DH
  3. Arozarena 2B
  4. N Lowe 1B
  5. Brosseau 3B
  6. Renfroe RF
  7. Phillips CF
  8. Margot LF
  9. Perez C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will rest some of the key relievers this afternoon. Nick Anderson threw in the first game of the series, while Diego Castillo and Pete Fairbanks threw yesterday. Aaron Slegers also worked three innings last night, and John Curtiss pitched the last two games. That leaves Oliver Drake, Aaron Loup, Ryan Sherriff, and Ryan Thompson as options.

— Good news on the with runners in scoring position (wRISP) front. Tampa Bay has had success in this series when it has mattered most, going 7-for-16 wRISP (.438 wRISP BA).

— Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz are expected to work out before the game. According to Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), the Rays have not decided if either or both will make the team’s playoff roster, as each is recovering from a hamstring injury. Rosters do not need to be finalized until Tuesday morning.

— Rays manager Kevin Cash set the pitching rotation in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. The team will go with Blake Snell in the first game, Tyler Glasnow in the second, and Charlie Morton in the third, if necessary.

LBWMF: Rays come from behind to defeat the Phillies, 6-4

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The Maverick not only won a dance-off on Wednesday but he collected 2/3 of his season hits with the Rays last night.

The Tampa Bay Rays came from behind against the Phillies on Friday, and in doing so they notched their American League-leading 19th comeback win of the season.

At 38-20 on the season, the Rays enter play Saturday 18 games over .500 for the first time this season. They also moved one step closer to the top seed in the playoffs with two games left to play. An Oakland loss or a Tampa Bay win next two days of the season will give them the top spot in the AL.

The Rays took the initial lead in the second against Vince Velasquez. Kevin Kiermaier hit a one-out single to center, then got into Velasquez’s head as he jockeyed off first base and then off second when Mike Brosseau walked. After Hunter Renfroe struck out swinging on a fastball well above the zone, Brett Phillips collected the first of two hits, an RBI single to right.

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton got the start and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).

Down by three, the Rays began their comeback in the home half of the inning against Velasquez. Joey Wendle reached on an infield hit before Randy Arozarena lined a double to left, moving Wendle to third. After Nate Lowe struck out, Adames singled to center, scoring Wendle and chasing Philadelphia’s starter after 92 pitches. Former Ray Tommy Hunter came on and got Kevin Kiermaier to ground into a fielder’s choice, scoring Arozarena and cutting the lead to just a run.

After Morton, Oliver Drake threw a scoreless sixth, allowing just a walk. In the bottom of the frame, Phillips collected his second hit of the night, punching a homer to straightaway centerfield, his first homer in a Rays uniform, tying the game at four. Phillips was on base in all four plate appearances.

Ryan Thompson pitched the seventh, striking out a pair and setting the stage for one last rally.

Left-hander Adam Morgan took the mound in the bottom of the eighth with the game tied at four. Pinch-hitter Manuel Margot lined to left to start the frame, however, Yoshi Tsutsugo singled to center before Renfroe and Phillips walked to load the bases. Joe Girardi had seen enough of Morgan and called upon Hector Neris. After pinch-hitter, Brandon Lowe popped out, Wendle lined a two-RBI single to right for a 6-4 lead.

That made a winner out of Nick Anderson, who worked the top of the eighth and allowed a two-out walk to Didi Gregorius — just his third walk of the season. Jean Segura hit a pop fly toward the right-field line, and Wendle, playing second, made an incredible over the shoulder catch to prevent a hit and likely a two-out run. John Curtiss followed in the ninth and struck out the side to earn the save.

The New What Next

After closing out Friday night’s contest, Curtiss will open the middle game of the set on Saturday. He will be followed by Ryan Yarbrough (1-4, 3.78 ERA). They’ll be opposed by Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings on Sunday against the Orioles. Yarbrough gave up two runs in the first inning, yet he settled in and finished his outing with six scoreless frames. Unfortunately, the two runs proved to be the difference in the game as the Orioles’ pitching staff put forth a dominant showing. The left-hander now maintains a 3.78 ERA and 3.33 K/BB over 52-1/3 innings.

Zack Wheeler gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks while striking out seven across 5-2/3 innings Monday against the Nationals. Wheeler got into early trouble, allowing two runs in the first inning followed by one in the sixth. He didn’t receive much run support, which resulted in the right-hander’s first loss of the 2020 season. Wheeler owns a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a 3.75 K/BB across 64 innings. He relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 97 mph worm-killer sinker with natural sinking action, a hard 90 mph slider, a whiffy 80 mph curveball with sharp downward bite, and a hard 90 mph changeup with a ton of backspin. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (2-6), Brett Phillips (1-2)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Phillies — a series preview

Rays 9/26/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Arozarena DH
  2. B. Lowe 2B
  3. Adames SS
  4. Tsutsugo 3B
  5. Brosseau 1B
  6. Kiermaier CF
  7. Margot LF
  8. Phillips RF
  9. Zunino C

TNWN: Rays vs. Phillies — a series preview

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Soak it in, Willy and Mike, soak it in. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a 6-2 road trip, culminating in the American League East title, the Tampa Bay Rays return home for the final series of the 2020 regular season. Enter the Philadelphia Phillies — who are coming off a series loss to the Nationals — for a three-game set starting Friday.

The Rays enter play 17 games over .500 and still in the hunt for the top seed in the American League — they are two games ahead of the Twins and 2-1/2 games in front of Oakland. If the postseason were to begin today, Tampa Bay would face Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.

The Rays continue to strike out at an alarming clip — a problem that has been exacerbated by the absences of Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Díaz, and Austin Meadows. Yet, they find ways to win ball games. Even so, the Rays still need to figure out ways to put the ball in play in the big moments, especially with runners in scoring position. Tampa Bay snapped an 0-for-27 wRISP skid in the series finale against the Mets. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, “Putting the ball in play can score runs. Brandon Lowe drove home two key runs on outs on the last road trip. Tsutsugo had an important sac fly. Especially since the Rays have become adept at taking the extra base by using their speed and athleticism, reducing the strikeout in RBI chances will go a long way toward a successful playoff run.”

As for the Phillies, they are in the midst of their own contentious playoff race in the National League. Even though Philadelphia enters the series one game under .500, they are a half game behind the Giants for the final spot in the National League, and a game behind the Marlins for second place in the NL East. They have outperformed the Rays in almost every offensive metric over the last 14 days, yet, in spite of that, Philadephia’s pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. They maintain a 5.18 ERA/4.50 FIP overall, and a 5.08 ERA/4.02 FIP over the last 14 days. Those bloated numbers come courtesy of the Phillies’ bullpen, which sports an overall 7.17 ERA/5.67 FIP (7.01 ERA/4.97 FIP over the last 14 days). While the Rays may have their hands full with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, they should get a chance against Philadelphia’s relief corps.

The Rays went 0-3 against the Phillies the last time these two paired off in 2018 and were outscored 21-9.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.64 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (1-4, 3.78 ERA), and Josh Fleming (4-0, 3.42 ERA) will get one last regular-season tuneup. They’ll be opposed by Vince Velasquez (1-1, 5.46 ERA), Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA), and Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.06 ERA).

Charlie Morton got off to an inauspicious start Saturday — getting into a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the first inning — yet he limited the damage and battled his way to a win over Baltimore, allowing one run on five hits and two walks and two hit batters while striking out six across five innings of work on 94 pitches (61% strike rate, 26% SwStr%). For only the second time since returning from the Injured List on September 2, Morton was able to make it through five innings, surrendering a lone tally to pick up his first win since August 4. Morton’s final pitch count of 94 bodes well for his ability to throw without limitations in the postseason. Between a shoulder injury that cost him nearly three weeks and an uncharacteristic 4.64 ERA (albeit reduced from 5.13), the 2020 campaign has been somewhat disappointing for the right-hander, he could provide a significant boost to the Rays’ rotation if he’s able to peak heading into the postseason.

He settled in and did a really nice job of competing, making pitches, and getting a feel for everything that he had. But most of all encouraged that we got him to that 95-pitch mark and throughout that the velocity stayed consistent.

— Kevin Cash

Vince Velasquez struck out six and gave up one run on two hits and three walks over six innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday. The right-hander surrendered a fifth-inning solo homer to Travis Shaw but otherwise kept Toronto off the board. Velasquez has a 5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 2.67 K/BB over 29-2/3 innings. He is primarily a four-pitch pitcher who boasts a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin, while also mixing in an 83 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and 12-6 movement, an 88 mph changeup with natural sink to it, and a hard 87 mph slider with short glove-side cut. Velasquez is 0-0 with a 1.45 ERA in one career start against the Rays.

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings on Sunday against the Orioles. Yarbrough gave up two runs in the first inning, yet he settled in and finished his outing with six scoreless frames. Unfortunately, the two runs proved to be the difference in the game as the Orioles’ pitching staff put forth a dominant showing. The left-hander now maintains a 3.78 ERA and 3.33 K/BB over 52-1/3 innings.

Zack Wheeler gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks while striking out seven across 5-2/3 innings Monday against the Nationals. Wheeler got into early trouble, allowing two runs in the first inning followed by one in the sixth. He didn’t receive much run support, which resulted in the right-hander’s first loss of the 2020 season. Wheeler owns a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a 3.75 K/BB across 64 innings. He relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 97 mph worm-killer sinker with natural sinking action, a hard 90 mph slider, a whiffy 80 mph curveball with sharp downward bite, and a hard 90 mph changeup with a ton of backspin. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (2-6), Brett Phillips (1-2)

Josh Fleming, who was slated to pitch the bulk of the innings on Tuesday, entered the game after Ryan Thompson and got the final out of the third inning. He also allowed just a grounder in the fourth.

Even so, former Ray Guillermo Heredia battled back from an 0-2 count to earn a free pass, while Ramos hit a single to right on the next pitch, putting two on and moving a runner into scoring position. After Nimmo was hit by a pitch, consequently loading the bases, Jeff McNeil hit an infield RBI single that Willy Adames made a diving stop on, scoring Heredia and bringing the Mets within one. But, J.D. Davis lined to right on the very next pitch, keeping the Rays in front.

Fleming came out in the sixth and got the first two batters before Diego Castillo took over with Alonso, whom he quickly put away, stepping into the box.

After a rough start patch in September, Fleming has allowed just one run over 6-2/3 frames encompassing his last two trips to the mound.

Aaron Nola gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks over six innings on Thursday against Washington. He struck out six. It was Nola’s fourth quality start in his last six outings, a stretch during which he’s posted a 3.03 ERA and 3.85 K/BB across 38-2/3 innings. Nola relies primarily on an 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, a 79 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and some natural sinking action, and a groundball inducing 92 mph sinker with natural sinking action. Key Matchup: Hunter Renfroe (3-7, 2 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Hunter Renfroe will play first base for the time in a starting role during the series. Renfroe finished the game there on Wednesday. Rays manager Kevin Cash said part of that is not knowing how ready Yandy Díaz will be for the postseason.

— The above being said, both Díaz and Ji-Man Choi have made real progress in recovering from their injuries. They took live batting practice the last two days, facing José Alvarado Thursday and Trevor Richards and Shane McClanahan Friday. They also took grounders and ran the bases in addition to taking another round of batting practice. Both infielders could both be ready for the postseason.

— Alvarado is slated to throw another simulated inning against Díaz and Choi on Saturday.

Clinched!

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…When you bring your own party favors to the field.

On Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays clinched the AL East title for the first time since 2010 — and the third time in franchise history — behind an 8-5 victory over the New York Mets. The Rays aren’t done yet though, over the next three games they will attempt to lock up the number one seed in the American League.

Tampa Bay enters the last off-day of the regular season with a record of 37-20, 17 games over .500. They currently maintain the best record in the American League by two games over Minnesota with three games left to play. The Rays have lost just one of the team’s last 15 series.

Due to the pandemic, the Rays celebrated the accomplishment with another round of imaginary champagne, in a room covered in imaginary plastic given the COVID-19 protocols and restrictions.

Rays manager Kevin Cash acknowledged that the team is missing out on one of the best parts of winning, although he acknowledged the tradeoff involved.

I do think we all should recognize that these players are missing out, but we’re missing out like we said for good reason. And being respectful of the situation and not putting any of us at risk. We’re going to the postseason. We definitely don’t want a celebration or anything like that to derail all the accomplishments of the season.

— Kevin Cash

The Rays will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies into the Trop for a three-game series (the final set of the 2020 season), starting Friday. More on things later, it’s, well … getting late. Congratulations, guys!

TNWN: Rays look to clinch the division title, take two

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Blake Snell gave up three runs in 5-2/3 innings on Tuesday.

After a 5-2 loss to the New York Mets on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back on the winning side of the ledger, take the series, and clinch the AL East title on Wednesday, in New York.

Tampa Bay enters play 16 games over .500 and with a 3-1/2 game lead over the Yankees with four games left to play. They also boast a magic number of one. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, “the Rays lead Chicago by 1-1/2 games for the best record in the American League, and Tampa Bay has lost just one of the team’s last 14 series.”

This will be Tampa Bay’s last regular-season road game of the 2020 season. The Rays, who are 5-2 on the current road trip, could end the season with a 20-11 road record.

The Rays have struggled offensively of late, which is due in part to the absence of three of the team’s top four hitters — Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz (hamstring injuries), and Austin Meadows (oblique strain) — due to injury. Choi and Diaz got reps yesterday in Port Charlotte, although Rays skipper Kevin Cash said they still need to improve significantly to even be included on the team’s playoff roster.

The injuries have dealt the Rays a tough hand, as the have scored three runs or fewer in five consecutive games and seven of eight contests. There’s another reason they are scuffling though: Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to get timely hits. The team is currently in an 0-22 wRISP. With Mike Brosseau getting a few days off, as he deals with overall body soreness, the Rays only really have two hot hitters in the lineup tonight; Willy Adames, who scored twice on Tuesday and has three homers on the road trip, and Joey Wendle, who collected two hits yesterday and is 7-for-13 in the last four games.

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (4-1, 4.21 ERA) will get the start for the Rays tonight, pitching opposite of former Cardinal hurler Michael Wacha (1-3, 6.75 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow got the start Friday against former Ray Alex Cobb and battled, allowing one run on four hits (one home run) and two walks while fanning 10 across five innings on 95 pitches (64 strikes, 67% strike rate, 20% SwStr%) en route to his fourth win of the season.

Glasnow, however, really had to work for his outs, using 50 pitches over the first two frames. The right-hander had a runner at second with one out in the first inning, then really did some heavy lifting in the second. He loaded the bases on a walk sandwiched around a pair of singles. However, Glasnow struck out Bryan Holaday and Andrew Velazquez, then got Cedric Mullins to fly to left, keeping Baltimore off the board.

Getting out of the second inning was a big step from me. Good growth moment, like Kyle would say. I felt, like, calm … nothing sped up.

— Tyler Glasnow

The right-hander’s only mistake of the night came in the bottom of the fourth when he allowed an Austin Hays solo shot to begin the frame. Yet, Glasnow struck out the side afterward (as well as in the first) and surrendered nothing else. Glasnow came into Friday’s contest averaging 14.2 K/9 and raised it to 14.6 by the time his night was over. He again lowered his ERA, this time to 4.21 (3.47 FIP), and maintains an impressive 3.95 K/BB across 51-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA in five career outings (two starts) against the Mets.

Michael Wacha was moved into the rotation for left-hander Steven Matz. Wacha gave up a run in four innings a week ago against Philadelphia. He has not thrown more than 71 pitches in a game since August 7th. Wacha is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA in two career starts for the Rays. However, only four current Rays have ever faced Wacha. Key Matchup: Hunter Renfroe (1-1, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Mets — a series preview

Rays 9/23/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Tsutsugo DH
  2. B. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena LF
  4. N. Lowe 1B
  5. Renfroe RF
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Margot CF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— Jose Alvarado (lat strain) will throw in a simulated game on Thursday and another over the weekend. From there, it will be determined whether he will be able to rejoin the Rays for the first round of the playoffs.