X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays are front runners to sign Howie Kendrick

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The Tampa Bay Rays are interested in, and reportedly frontrunners for, free-agent Howie Kendrick.

After a brilliant 2019 campaign, culminating in a World Series title with the Washington Nationals, the Tampa Bay Rays are reportedly front-runners to ink a deal with free-agent Howie Kendrick. The Cincinnati Reds, another team connected to Kendrick, no longer seems likely to sign him.

Kendrick has been a quality hitter since his big-league career began with the Los Angeles Angels in 2006, posting a career .294 BA/.337 OBP/.431 SLG/.768 OPS/.333 wOBA slash line. Although he is coming off his best offensive campaign, hitting a fantastic .344 BA/.395 OBP/.572 SLG/.967 OPS/.400 wOBA line and a career-best 146 wRC+ with 17 home runs across 370 plate appearances. Kendrick’s heroics continued throughout the playoffs when he hit a pair of critical home runs that helped propel the Nationals to a championship.

While a surge in power is rare for a 36-year-old player it was not wholly unexpected from Kendrick, whose ISO ramped up from .111 in 2016 to .161 the following season, .171 in 2018, and finally .228 last season. Meanwhile, his walk rate jumped from a career 5.4% to 7.3% and he reduced his strikeout rate from an already above-average 17.2% to a career-low 13.2% last season. In addition, Kendrick’s 91.6 mph average exit velocity — which was up from 88.2 mph in 2018 — ranked one spot behind Yandy Diaz.

There is a reason to believe that even with a regression closer to his 2017/18 production levels, Kendrick will again be productive in 2020. Fangraphs’ Steamer Projection System forecasts an above-average a .299 BA/.354 OBP/.478 SLG/.832 OPS line with a 117 wRC+.

Kendrick is likely better equipped for an American League team like the Rays, with whom he’d serve as a platoon first baseman or DH. He also still has enough defensive versatility to see time at second and third base. MLB Trade Rumors that he will land a two-year, $12-million contract.

Kevin Kiermaier wins his third Gold Glove; Rays free-agent predictions

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Kevin Kiermaier won his third Gold Glove in six seasons on Sunday.

The superlatives for the Tampa Bay Rays, and individual members of the organization, continued on Sunday when centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier earned his third Gold Glove in six seasons ⁠— edging out Mike Trout and Jackie Bradley, Jr.

The award is given to players with stellar individual fielding performances at each position in the National and American Leagues.

Kiermaier was not eligible for the award the previous two seasons due to injuries that limited his playing time to just 118 combined games. Yet The Outlaw was back to his old tricks for most of 2019, dazzling fans with improbable catches and leaps at the wall, while also gunning players out at the plate.

Kiermaier dominated the competition, leading all American League centerfielders with +13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 17 Outs Above Average, an MLB StatCast calculation that takes into consideration catch probability.

He also ranked first in StatCast’s quick jump measure, which calculates the amount of ground covered (in feet) in the correct direction in the first three seconds. He led all outfielders with a “jump” that was 3.8 feet better than average; he was the only player better than 2.5 feet above average.

Kiermaier previously won the AL Gold Glove in centerfield in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. In 2015, he also won the Platinum Glove Award as the best defender in the AL. The 2019 Wilson Defensive Awards will be announced on Wednesday.

Noteworthiness

— On Monday, MLB Trade Rumors presented its 14th annual Top 50 Free Agents list. Tim Dierkes (MLB Trade Rumors) predicted that the Rays would ink deals with a pair of now-former Yankees, Edwin Encarnacion, and Dellin Betances.

The predictions follow:

38.  Edwin Encarnacion – Rays.  One year, $8MM.  Encarnacion, 37 in January, just finished his eighth consecutive season with at least 32 home runs. From 2012 to present, no one matched EE’s 297 bombs or 850 RBIs. Though the slugger’s defensive limitations might ultimately limit him to the Hall of Very Good, Encarnacion proved he can still mash with a 129 wRC+ this year. That’s better than fellow free agents Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Abreu, Mike Moustakas, Avisail Garcia, and Marcell Ozuna. The key to fitting Encarnacion into the middle of a team’s lineup is finding a spot for him defensively, as he’s topped out at about 500 innings at first base in recent years and should mostly serve as a designated hitter. The Rays, Blue Jays, Indians, Orioles, White Sox, and Yankees could theoretically find a place for Encarnacion’s bat, though several of those teams have already done so in the past.

43.  Dellin Betances – Rays.  One year, $7MM.  Betances, 32 in March, authored a dominant five-year stretch for the Yankees in which he posted a 2.22 ERA and struck out 40.3 percent of the hitters he faced in 373 1/3 innings from 2014-18. Both figures are second in MLB during that time. Betances was also near the top with a 97.4 mile per hour average fastball during that period. However, a shoulder injury appeared during Spring Training 2019 and surprisingly delayed Betances’ season debut until September 15th. He struck out the only two batters he faced that day, but suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon in the appearance. Betances was around 95 miles per hour in that outing, so he’s yet to return to his typical 98-99 mph range. He’d do well to hold a showcase for teams next spring once his Achilles heals and take a one-year deal to rebuild value. He’s a high-risk, high-reward addition to a contender’s bullpen.

Tampa Bay Rays hot-stove outlook; important dates

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After a 96-win season, Kevin Cash and the Rays front office look to add to the roster during the 2019/20 offseason.

As the 2019 season came to an end on Wednesday, the busy 2019/20 hot-stove period commenced. Erik Neander, Kevin Cash, and the Tampa Bay Rays front office are now tasked with putting the final touches on a roster that can get the franchise back into the World Series after the wildly successful 96 win 2019 campaign.

There are several key dates during this roster-building period, which MLB Trade Rumors listed on Thursday.

November 2

  • Eligible players officially file for major or minor-league free agency

November 4

  • End of “quiet period” during which teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents
  • Deadline to issue qualifying offers ($17.8MM) to eligible free agents
  • Deadline to exercise or decline options and opt-outs (unless sooner by operation of contract; Stephen Strasburg & Aroldis Chapman reportedly must decide by November 2)

November 11-14

  • General Manager Meetings (Scottsdale, AZ)

November 14

  • Deadline for qualifying offer recipients to accept or reject

November 20

  • Deadline for adding Rule 5-draft eligible players to the 40-man roster

December 2

  • Non-tender deadline

December 9-12

  • Winter Meetings (San Diego, CA)

December 12

  • Rule 5 Draft

January 10

  • Deadline to exchange arbitration filing figures if an agreement has yet to be reached

February 3-21

  • Arbitration hearing period

Mid-February

  • Spring Training commences

March 26

  • Opening Day

The Rays already made a couple of moves to clear space on the 40-man roster, outrighting LHP Hoby Milner and speedy OF Johnny Davis. Meanwhile, Travis d’Arnaud, Avisaíl Garcia, and Eric Sogard are now officially off the books, which has lowered the roster to 35 players. With the Rule-5 Draft approaching, Neander and Co. will have to figure out how many players will need to be protected.

Tampa Bay is also reportedly interested in re-signing Sogard, Garcia, and d’Arnaud, although any new deal would have to come at the right price.

Re-signing Sogard to the infield mix could push Yandy Diaz into the role as the right-handed complement to Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe. Garcia could see some time at DH or in right field, allowing for Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, or other players to cycle through the DH slot on partial rest days.

d’Arnaud might have priced himself out of Tampa Bay’s range after his initial 92-game stint with the team. He was both productive and healthy in 2019 and now looks to be the second-best option on the free-agent catcher market after Yasmani Grandal. If d’Arnaud were to sign, elsewhere Mike Zunino would more than likely need to be retained as Michael Perez would be the Rays top in-house choice as the starting backstop.

As for other needs, the Rays might look at adding a big bat that can play every day. The first base/DH spot is the most logical space for such a player, particularly a consistent right-handed bat with pop. The team, which values roster flexibility, would likely seek a player with multi-positional versatility, of which there could be some interesting options on the free-agent market, namely World Series hero Howie Kendrick. Should they be content with a strict first baseman/DH, a free-agent like Jose Abreu could potentially be in play.

The Rays’ bullpen pitched well last season, and the team will likely bring back most of the arms for another season of restocking and reshuffling between the big league squad and Triple-A Durham. A healthy Jose Alvarado should also return to the mix. Expect Neander to add at least one veteran arm to the ‘pen even if just on a minor league contract.

The team’s playoff success isn’t likely to lead to any uncharacteristic moves, although the team will have more money to play with thanks to increased revenue by way of the updated TV contract with Fox Sports Sun, among other things. Neander could have another set of bold moves in-store in order to put the Rays over the top in the AL East.

As what promises to be an intriguing offseason continues to unfold, X-Rays Spex will continue to be on top of things.

Bloom to be hired by the Red Sox, Cash and Neander earn hardware, Kiermaier nominated for a Gold Glove

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Rays VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom is “likely” to be hired by the Red Sox.

In a few days, once the World Series comes to pass, the Tampa Bay Rays interesting offseason plans will begin to take shape ⁠— we’ll have more on that starting next week. Unfortunately for a front office tasked with adding to the young core of players which won 96 games in 2019, the Rays will likely be without VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who will be coronated as Boston’s head of baseball operations.

Bloom interviewed for the Red Sox GM opening, according to Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal (both of The Athletic). Jennings noted the process “seems to be coming to an end,” while Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) added, “Bloom is “likely” to be hired by the Red Sox.”

Bloom, 36, had been in the mix for several high-profile executive jobs in recent years, most notably he was the runner-up to Brodie Van Wagenen in the Mets search for a new GM last season. The Twins and Phillies were also said to have considered Bloom for a GM role in recent years.

Bloom is a front office veteran with 15+ seasons of experience in the Rays front office. After starting his career as an intern in 2005, Bloom was promoted to the role of VP of baseball operations in 2014, with a “senior” title being attached to that role in 2016 when the club also promoted Erik Neander to GM.

Bloom doesn’t just have intimate knowledge of the Rays front office, he’s added his own ingredients to their secret sauce over the years. He now will bring some of those cutting edge concepts to Boston, one of the Tampa Bay’s fiercest opponents.

Even so, the Rays should be able to absorb his departure.

Based on the talent on the roster, as well as the clubhouse culture that’s been cultivated, there’s more than enough evidence that Tampa Bay will still be a threat in the American League for the foreseeable future. The problem is whether that will be enough with a Boston franchise that’s about to get a serious boost in Bloom.

Kevin Cash and Erik Neander are the recipients of a pair of awards

Speaking of the front office, Kevin Cash was honored as one of Sporting News’ award recipients, naming the Rays skipper American League Manager of the Year. Meanwhile, Erik Neander was named MLB Executive of the Year by the same publication. Cash and Neander were tasked with a roster chock-full of trade acquisitions and overlooked players, and ultimately led Tampa Bay to a 96-win season and an American League Division Series berth. Cash also deserves credit for guiding through an injury-plagued campaign — just two Rays appeared in over 140 games.

The Sporting News Manager of the Year award is not to be confused with the BBWAA awards which receive more coverage and recognition.

Kevin Kiermaier is a finalist for Gold Glove award

On Thursday, centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier was named a finalist for the AL Gold Glove award for American League centerfielders. He will compete against Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mike Trout.

Kiermiaer previously won the Gold Glove twice, in 2015 and 2016.

Having a shot at winning another Gold Glove is one of the best feelings for me from a personal standpoint. I always say I feel like I can control a game from centerfield as well as anyone in the game. Being a nominee gives me a shot at winning and I hope I’m fortunate enough to win a third Gold Glove.

— Kevin Kiermaier

Kiermaier appeared in 125 games this season (117 starts), and made just four errors in 260 chances, while also collecting six assists.

The SABR defensive index (SDI) has Kiermaier ranked highest of the three candidates at 6.3, with Trout at 4.4 and Bradley at -6.2. He also ranks first in defensive runs saved (DRS) with an AL most 13; Trout and Bradley were both -1.

Tampa Bay did not have any other finalists. While deserving, shortstop Willy Adames was overshadowed by Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons. Adames was the top-ranked shortstop per the SDI at 9.9, with Semien following at 7.8, and Lindor at 2.9. Simmons was not ranked.

Tampa Bay Rays enter the offseason with a ton of optimism for the future

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Rays skipper Kevin Cash has a lot to look forward to going into the offseason.

A day after the Tampa Bay Rays 2019 campaign came to an end, Vice President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom, General Manager Erik Neander, and Manager Kevin Cash met with the media for their annual post-season press conference at Tropicana Field. As the players cleaned out their lockers in ahead the off-season, Bloom, Neander, and Cash note of their optimism going into the 2020 season.

There is an expectation for the young core of players to get even better after gaining another year of experience, including another postseason berth. Moving forward, the likely focus for the Rays brain trust will be more on the now than on the future, as they tinker with the roster to make a really good team even better.

We’re more equipped to compete with what we have right now. As thick as we are right now, I think we’re satisfied with the talent we have.

But I think it’s kind of in our DNA and our mode of preparation that we have an offseason with months to play with and think about things, and we can’t help ourselves but to think about how to make the team better. That’s our job, and we’ll do that. We’ll be open to things. But we do like our starting position here going into the winter.

— Erik Neander

With a team that has gone from 68 to 96 wins over a four-year period, not to mention an organization that has one deepest farm systems in the game, Tampa Bay is positioned well for a successful run.

With that in mind, Juan Toribio (MLB.com) listed his four key takeaways from the press conference, which you can read below:

Rays ready to build on postseason appearance

After their first postseason berth since 2013, the Rays enter the offseason as one of the early favorites to contend for the AL pennant in ’20. While they have difficult decisions to make this winter, the front office will operate with the sense that next year’s team is set to contend for more than just a postseason berth.

I think it’s much more that we’re putting ourselves in the territory where we’re expecting to be one of the most competitive and one of the most talented teams moving forward in the American League. And with that, the balancing of your near-term versus your long-term, it shifts a little bit to the present. And, really, that’s the goal.

— Erik Neander

Payroll operations

It’s no secret that the Rays don’t have the same payroll flexibility as some of the other clubs in the Majors, but they’re going to continue to be resourceful with what they have. Neander said that the Rays have “an idea” of what the payroll will be next season, which will help them in the free-agent market, but it isn’t necessarily a set number.

It’s kind of more of a range, but not something that we’ve gotten into too deeply. I think it’s important to survey the landscape and what our needs are and what’s available, what’s the inventory and then work backwards from there.

— Erik Neander

Medical update on Honeywell

Brent Honeywell entered the season as the team’s top pitching prospect, but setbacks from Tommy John surgery ended his season in June. Honeywell has now missed two full seasons, but he’s currently on pace to begin throwing at the start of the year. Honeywell was the only member of the 40-man roster to not pitch for the Rays this season, but the club is optimistic that the right-hander will contribute at some point next season.

The plan all along was that he wasn’t going to throw until around the new year and that remains the case. This kid is as intense and strong of a competitor as anyone we’ve been around, and for him to not taste competitive baseball for a couple of years is tough. But he’s going to get through this and we’ll see how he does once he picks up a ball.

— Erik Neander

Staff changes?

With a throng of job openings around the Majors, there’s always a chance that the Rays could have some turnover on their coaching staff. Rocco Baldelli and Charlie Montoyo both took managerial jobs last winter — with the Twins and Blue Jays, respectively — and some clubs could inquire about bench coach Matt Quatraro this winter.

Cash said that there could be some interest around the league for some of his staff members and front office personnel, though he’s optimistic about keeping his staff intact.

I don’t anticipate any changes. We have a really good group and a great staff. I think they do a really good job of keeping a positive vibe while helping players get better. There’s probably a lot of discussions out there right now. I would imagine that we have some people on our staff and within our organization that are looked upon very highly. I can’t thank this staff enough for the work this season.

— Kevin Cash

The Rays now will prioritize their own needs, like a catcher (if Travis d’Arnaud leaves), a right-handed power hitter (should Avisail Garcia leave), and a key bullpen piece or two.

Still, there is the feeling that the future looks better than ever which is a good place to be as the team looks to build on the successes of the 2019 campaign.

We’re putting ourselves in the territory, where we expect to be one of the most competitive, one of the most talented teams going forward in the American League.

— Erik Neander