X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

The face of the Rays is none too happy with his team’s offensive struggles. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays returned home, from a relatively quick road jaunt, where they’ll face the Seattle Mariners over the next three days, ahead of a previously scheduled off-day on Monday. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game series loss to Toronto, while Seattle took two of three from Baltimore.

(Stats: ESPN)

Hanging in playoff contention by a thread, something that has more to do with the fact that none have run away with the final Wildcard spot than it has with quality play of the Rays, a frustrated Evan Longoria opined that “losses are definitely tough at this point in the year.”

With just 39 games left of the regular season, Longoria has a point. The Rays have been hard to watch, yet here we are with a team that is still in the hunt … one with an opportunity to make up some ground against a ball club that sits ahead of them in the Wildcard standings. But time is of the essence, and the Rays cannot afford to continue to squander quality starts by the pitching staff which has worked to a 2.92 ERA over the month of August.

We’ve got to turn it around, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. You can only delay it for so long and say there’s time, there’s time. Time is of the essence. We’ve got to start playing good baseball games whether we matchup well against that team or not, forget it. We have to play good baseball.

There are a couple of bright sides. Seattle is just two games removed from a five game losing streak, and Scott Servais will start three hurlers with +4.00 ERA’s over the last 14-days. Hopefully, yes hopefully, the Rays offense can muster enough offense to take at least two-out-of-three from the M’s.

On the contrary, however, the Rays faced the Mariners in early June and were swept in a three-game series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean in Austin Pruitt (1-2, 3.08 ERA, 4.32 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.30 ERA, 5.64 FIP), and Blake Snell (1-6, 4.78 ERA, 4.84 FIP). Scott Servais will counter with former Ray Erasmo Ramirez (4-4, 4.73 ERA, 4.61 FIP), Ariel Miranda (7-6, 4.75 ERA, 5.43 FIP), and Yovani Gallardo (4-8, 6.41 ERA, 5.50 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Pruitt notched a quality start in his last turn against Cleveland, and has turned a corner of late. Over his last three starts and (spanning 18-1/3 innings) the right-hander has allowed just four runs on 11 hits and three walks. He also has worked to a 1.96 ERA along the way.

Ramirez will face the team that traded him before the deadline for Steve Cishek. Erasmo has been spotty since the deal, going 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in three starts. He, however, is coming off his best outing with Seattle — throwing six innings of one run, three hit baseball against the Angels. But with .211 BABIP over the last 14 days, it’s safe to say Erasmo has been the beneficiary of good luck. For the sake of the Rays, who have been the recipient of bad luck over the same span, the luck dragons have got to change for both parties at some point. We all know what to expect from Ramirez: a zippy fastball, a whiffy changeup with a ton of movement, and a sinker that he tries to keep at the bottom of the zone.

Odorizzi was solid in his last start against Toronto and buckled down to control his stuff after allowing a first-inning home run. This was a good sign for the right-hander that is coming off back-to-back short outings. Odorizzi gave up a two-run homer to Josh Donaldson in the first inning, but cruised to a quality start through the next five frames. Unfortunately the Rays couldn’t come to life against Nick Tepesch, dropping Odorizzi to his sixth loss of the season.

Miranda is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA over his past seven starts. He has given up 12 home runs over that stretch. The southpaw threw a complete-game victory against Tampa Bay on June 4 in Seattle, scattering just four hits and one run with nine strikeouts. That was the only time Tampa Bay has faced Miranda. Key Matchups: Trevor Plouffe (1-2), Daniel Robertson (1-3, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (1-4)

Snell battled through six innings in his last turn. And even though he allowed four earned runs, manager Kevin Cash said it might have been Snell’s best start of the season because of his ability to come up big the last inning when his team needed it. After Snell gave up an early run on a fluke double, the left-hander locked it in and forced weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Gallardo, the 31-year-old right-hander, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA over his past three starts. He lasted just four innings with eight runs and two homers in his previous start against Baltimore. The former Oriole/Ranger/Brewer is 3-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays. He has not faced Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-13, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Lucas Duda (5-13, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Brad Miller (5-15, 2 2B, 3B, 3 BB), Trevor Plouffe (5-17, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) is expected to rejoin the Rays on Friday.

We’re hoping all goes well, Cash said of his Thursday afternoon rehab start. He’s very, very close.

Mallex Smith likely will be optioned to Triple-A Durham to make room for Kiermaier.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) is slated to throw a bullpen session on Saturday at Tropicana Field. If all goes well, he will rejoin the rotation next week, potentially as soon as Tuesday.

— Matt Andriese (hip) started for the Charlotte Stone Crabs Thursday night in the second of three scheduled rehab outings.

Tampa Bay Rays 8/17/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

By Leave a Comment

Sergio Romo has given up just four runs in 14 innings of work, and notched strikeouts in all but one of his 11 appearances with the Rays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a tough 3-2 loss on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays look to remain relevant in the playoff chase with a win in the series finale with Toronto this afternoon. Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA, 3.17 FIP) will take the mound for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Chris Rowley (1-0, 1.69 ERA, 2.58 FIP).

There were a good number of factors leading to last night’s loss, of which Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) narrowed down to five mistakes:

  • Rookie starter Jake Faria make too many mistakes, the failure to execute costing him repeatedly, most glaringly on three at-bats most key to the Jays scoring runs. The pitches that Jose Bautista hit for an RBI double (that bounced over Mallex Smith’s head) in the third and ex-Ray Steve Pearce lashed for a homer in the fourth were fastballs that were supposed to be down and away that Faria left up. And the pitch Pearce laced that froze LF Corey Dickerson and led to a run in the sixth was a slider that ended up sliding smack dab in the middle of the plate.

It all comes down to execution, Faria said. If you don’t execute they are going the punish the baseball. That’s what’s happening lately, when I don’t execute they’re not missing it. That’s really what it comes down to. It’s more on me. They’re major-league hitters, they’re good hitters. But it’s more on me just not executing. If I execute and they get a hit, I’ll take that. If I don’t execute and they get a hit, I’m not too happy about it. The balls that they hit were mistakes that I left in a bad spot and they hit them. So that’s on me. And that’s unacceptable. I have to be better about it.

  • The ball Bautista hit should have been a single, moving catcher Raffy Lopez to second, maybe third. But RF Mallex Smith played it poorly and the ball bounced over his head, becoming an RBI double. That Smith was on the field Tuesday when the same thing happened to Steven Souza Jr. just made it worse.

Manager Kevin Cash was fairly blunt with his criticism, saying they have to know better:

At some point we’ve got to make some adjustments. That can’t affect us. Turf should be never tricky for us. We live on the turf. We know the ball bounces.

Smith didn’t have much off an explanation, saying:

What can you do? Just got to play it better. Got to know your turf. Just a bouncy turf.

  • The liner Pearce hit that left Dickerson frozen was apparently lost in the lights according to Cash. And as bad as it looked and as costly as it was as Pearce went to third on a groundout and scored on a single up the middle off lefty reliever Dan Jennings with the infield in.

Cash was more forgiving.

That’s going to happen.

  • As much emotion as Evan Longoria uncharacteristically showed after being called out on strikes with the bases loaded in the seventh led most Rays to be convinced ump Lance Barksdale must have missed the pitch. As much as Longoria battled to stay alive against Dominic Leone, there is still something to be said for swinging the bat if it’s that close, not leaving it up to the umpire. Similarly frustrating for the Rays was Logan Morrison making just weak contact to pop out for the final out.
  • Smith made a mistake more of omission in the ninth that cost them as well. With a leadoff single against Jays closer Roberto Osuna, he had the green light and a dugout of teammates expecting him to steal as Adeiny Hechavarria stepped up. Hechavarria took one pitch, and Smith didn’t go. Hechavarria swung at the next one and rolled a ball through the middle, but SS Darwin Barney made a spectacular stop and flip to 2B Rob Refsnyder for the force out, one which would have been avoided had Smith been running.

I wanted to make sure that I ran smart right there, and I just waited a little bit too long, Smith said.

Compounding that decision, Brad Miller then  grounded into a force play and Steven Souza Jr. took a called third strike to end it.

There is a bright side: Sergio Romo posted 1-2/3 hitless innings last night. Romo has now given up just four runs in 14 innings of work, and notched strikeouts in all but one of his 11 appearances with the Rays.

This also is great news:

The New What Next

In spite of the loss last night, the Rays are still just 2-1/2 games out of the last Wildcard spot … so yes, they are very much still in the thick of things. They must win, however.

Archer saw his 15-start streak of pitching at least six innings come to pass Saturday night against Cleveland, after surrendering three runs in 5-1/3 innings. Archer allowed single runs in the first, third and sixth innings, but was fairly inefficient, thus his removal one out into the sixth. The right-hander continues to collect strikeouts, and he’s consistently kept his ERA just below 4.00 over the past month and a half. He is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts against Toronto this season.

Rowley was excellent in his Major League debut on August 12, working very quickly over 5-1/3 innings, while allowing just one run on five hits. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing, but he could go longer against the Rays. According to one scouting report, Rowley is a finesse pitcher that will move the ball around the zone:

Rowley will not blow the ball by hitters. Topping out at 91-92, he relies on command and his secondaries to keep hitters off balance:

“My game is based on throwing three pitches, all at different speeds, all in the strike zone and all moving differently, and the idea is for them to look the same until they get to the plate,” said Rowley.

Still, he has managed to strike out almost a batter per inning at AA. Rowley’s 47% ground ball rate shows that he excels at keeping the ball down in the zone, and his 15.8% line drive rate is proof that while he pitches to contact, it’s not often of the hard variey.  The knock against him may be that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but the other side of that coin is that his sinker is very tough to square up, and his change and slider keep hitters off balance.

You can read about the series in our preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 8/17/17 Starting Lineup

Miller 2B
Longoria 3B
Duda 1B
Souza RF
Morrison DH
Ramos C
Dickerson LF
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Another day, another lineup shakeup; Kevin Cash has Evan Longoria hitting second, likely because Lucas Duda has been performing better than the face of the Rays, and it’s his attempt to get more run production out of his team. That, or Cash is trying to get Longoria going.

Cash plans to stick with this lineup structure, with Miller one and Longoria two, for a while against right-handed pitchers.

For his part, Longoria understood the decision by the Rays manager, saying:

It doesn’t bother me one bit. I just want us to get going.

LBWMF: Rays offense comes back to life in 6-4 win over the Jays

By Leave a Comment

A celebration on the infield for the first time in five days. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Good times for a change
See, the luck I’ve had
Can make a good man
Turn bad…
— Steven Patrick Morrissey, the Smiths

On Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays snapped their four-game losing streak with a momentum building 6-4 win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Southpaw Blake Snell finally earned his first win of the season, while Wilson Ramos hit his second homer in as many days.

Tampa Bay got on the board in the third inning following Daniel Robertson’s leadoff single to center. Two batters later, Lucas Duda sent a first-pitch hanging changeup, over the inner third of the plate, into right field to put the Rays up by one.

Prior to the ball game, Wilson Ramos spoke about making a tweak in his batting stance, and how he was starting to feel better at the plate — something his solo homer on Monday hinted at. There must be some truth to what he said, because on Tuesday night he made it back-to-back games with a home run after he lashed a fourth-inning liner just over the wall in left field.

Ramos continued to collect hits, and consequently went 3-4 with a run, an RBI and a walk. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come in the latter half of the season from the backstop … and none to soon.

Then two batters after Adeiny Hechavarria doubled to right, Corey Dickerson sent an RBI single to deep center, plating the Rays fourth run of the night.

Tampa Bay added to its lead an inning later, thanks in part to Marco Estrada’s lack of command. After Ramos, Logan Morrison, and Steven Souza Jr. hit three singles to load the bases, Estrada walked Adeiny Hechavarria on four pitches to drive in a run. The right-hander followed that with another RBI walk, this time to Robertson, scoring the Rays sixth run.

All told, the Rays scored six runs on 13 hits, five walks, and two errors. Equally as important though Morrison, Souza, Ramos and Robertson each put together multi-hit games. The Rays are just a month removed from being one of baseballs top five run scoring teams, and perhaps this is a harbinger of good things to come.

On the mound, Snell worked to a 6 IP/4 ER/7 H/1 BB/4 K line, which doesn’t look too impressive until you dig a little deeper.

The first run against Snell came on a weak blooper that dropped between Souza and Smith, which took a strange bounce off the turf and was misplayed by the duo — allowed Steve Pearce to score from first. The gaffe, though technically not an error, gives credence to the idea that both Souza and Smith are not only pressing at the plate, but also in the field.

From there the left-hander locked it in, forcing weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Things got hairy for Snell in the bottom of the fifth. After Darwin Barney hit a single up the middle, and Jose Bautista looped a double into right, the red hot Josh Donaldson took him deep to right field on a fastball on the outside corner of the plate.

Credit Donaldson for being able to power a pitch on the periphery of the zone.

Yet Snell limited the damage, and got out of the inning with the lead intact. He came back out in the sixth inning and worked around an awkward catcher’s interference call on Ramos to throw his fourth goose egg upon the scoreboard.

Steve Cishek, Tommy Hunter and Alex Colome held Toronto scoreless over the final three frames, working to a combined 3 IP/1 H/2 K line.

The Rays won a must win game, 6-4, and look to build on the W Wednesday night.

The New What Next

Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA, 3.63 FIP) will take the mound for the Rays, pitching opposite of Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.75 FIP).

Faria was perfect through the front four innings against Cleveland on Friday, before he allowed a career-high five runs — on a homer and four horrendous fielding gaffes by Wilson Ramos and Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller. It was just the second time in his previous 12 big league starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He has gone six or more innings in 10 of those starts.

Stroman was excellent his last time out, although poor defense led to four unearned runs. The right-hander gave up all four runs in the third inning against Pittsburgh, but he shut the Pirates’ bats down the rest of the way. After struggling over a pair of recent starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 14-2/3 innings of work to lower his ERA from 3.19 to 3.00. Overall, he has generated a huge ground ball rate with his sinking fastball, and he is capable of working deeply into each game. The Rays couldn’t get much started against Stroman in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, tagging him for just three runs over 13-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/16/17 Starting Lineup

Miller 2B
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Robertson SS
Dickerson LF
Bourjos CF
Smith RF
Sucre C
Faria RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) went 0-3 with a strikeout while playing five innings for advanced Class-A Charlotte in his return to rehab. He is eyeing a return to the big league squad this weekend.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly felt better playing catch at Tropicana Field and will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday. If all goes as planned, he could rejoin the starting rotation next week.

— Matt Andriese (hip) will make the second rehab start Friday with the Stone Crabs in Port Charlotte. He is slated to make one more after that.

Tampa Bay Rays 8/15/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

By Leave a Comment

The irony is not lost on me that one of the Rays who’s struggling the most plated the only run for Tampa Bay last night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays hoped to get back on track Monday after a 2-7 home stand. They, unfortunately, fell behind early and could not make up the deficit against Toronto in a 2-1 loss. The Rays have dropped eight of ten, and have scored just 12 runs during that stretch. They again hope to get back on track tonight against a much tougher hurler on the mound.

One of the more unproductive pieces of the Rays lineup, Brad Miller, spoke about the team’s offensive drought this afternoon, saying,

I think our team is tired of almost doing it … We’re all professional, we all have a lot of pride, we want to get it done.

No offense Brad, but seeing that you’ve collected just nine hits (including three doubles and a homer) in your last 64 plate appearances, not to mention that you’ve crossed the plate just four times — and driven in just four runs — during that stretch, I would imagine that you are a main contributor to the run scoring blackout.

Evan Longoria added,

It’s kind of embarrassing for lack of a better explanation. Not lack of effort, belief, coaching.

For his part, Rays manager Kevin Cash said that the time to break out of the slump is now,

The offense is going to be fine, I know people probably scratch their head when I say that, but I believe it. Time is of the essence, we need to get this going — now.

If things continue down this path, we could be looking at a different batting order. Cash defended his sticking with the same lineup, since the slump has been a group effort and not just the two-and-three hitters who have been struggling, he acknowledged changes could be in the works.

One thing is certain, with the Rays just 2-1/2 games out of the last Wildcard slot, something needs to happen.

I digress.

Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.87 FIP) will get the start Tuesday night, pitching opposite of Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85 ERA, 4.35 FIP).

Snell put together one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday, limiting Cleveland to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 6-1/3 innings. The southpaw leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Estrada was again excellent in his last time turn, and he’s now gone seven innings in three consecutive starts. The right-hander has pitched to contact of late, coaxing plenty of weak fly-ball outs. After performing to a 9.52 ERA through nine starts, Estrada has now allowed just six runs in 26 innings over his past four outings. The Rays torched Estrada for 16 runs over his previous three starts, totaling 14-1/3 innings. They hope to see the negatively regressed right-hander on Tuesday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-17, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-18, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-4), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 4 RBI), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/15/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza RF
Smith CF
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Robertson 2B
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Matt Andriese (hip) will make his second rehab start on Friday for the Stone Crabs. Kevin Kiermaier will play in center for them tonight, Wednesday, and Thursday.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly had good day at the Trop, and could be throwing off the mound again as soon as Thursday. His potential return could be next week.

Tampa Bay Rays 8/14/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

By Leave a Comment

The Rays look to hit the reset button with a series against the Blue Jays starting tonight, in Toronto. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After losing seven of their last nine games at Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays look to hit the reset button on the road. They will play the for the first of four games at the Rogers Centre tonight.

Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Nick Tepesch (0-1, 10.38 ERA, 10.99 FIP).

Odorizzi struggled with his pitch count early in his last start on Wednesday, throwing 55 pitches over the first two frames. He was struck on his heel by an Eduardo Nunez comebacker on his 89th pitch of the night. Odorizzi was helped off the field without putting any weight on his right leg, but thankfully the X-Rays on his right foot came back negative. The right-hander tested his foot in a bullpen session, and the Rays have him a green light to start Monday night in Toronto.

Tepesch allowed five runs on eight hits over 4-1/3 innings during his last start against New York. He has a temporary hold on a rotation spot until Joe Biagini is properly stretched out at Triple-A Buffalo. This season he has relied primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball, and an 86 mph slider. He’s also mixed in a 79 mph knuckle curveball, and a 90 mph sinker. Tepesch is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA over two career starts (totaling 14-1/3 innings) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchup: 2-7, HR, 2 RBI

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/14/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza Jr RF
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Bourjos CF
Robertson SS
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith (4-for-his-last-24) will get a night off in centerfield, as will Adeiny Hechavarria (3-for-his-last-27) at shortstop.

— Chase Whitley has been recalled from Durham to provide length in the bullpen, which makes sense since Jake Odorizzi has not gone beyond five innings in four of his last five starts, and is coming off a foot injury. Jose Alvarado was optioned back to Triple-A Durham after yesterday’s ball game.

— Kevin Kiermaier went 1-for-5 yesterday in a rehab start with the Charlotte Stone Crabs, including a run-scoring triple. Matt Andriese went three-plus innings, and allowed two runs on four hits.

— The Rays are the MLB DRS leaders once again: