X-Rays Spex

We wrote about the Tampa Bay Rays’ projected offense a few weeks back, and this time we’ll tackle the bullpen.

The Rays ‘pen has been in a state of flux this off-season. Gone are Joel Peralta and Cesar Ramos, two relievers many grew to love (or hate, you choose). They were also dealt a setback, albeit temporary, with the injury and subsequent surgery on closer Jake McGee. In turn, a few experienced arms have been brought in and to deal with the flux. As of now, a little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, as many as 11 players are vying for a role in the later innings.

Let’s first look at who could fill those openings.

Alex Colome, long reliever: Colome is in competition for a starting role with Nathan Karns and Burch Smith in the short-term, while Matt Moore mends on the injured reserve. However, it seems likely that he will ultimately find himself in the bullpen since he is out of minor league options. Whether he makes his way to the ‘pen right away, or following a stint as a starter, fails to be seen.

Jeff Beliveau, lefty specialist: Beliveau was very productive last season, averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a virtual lock for the bullpen based on his performance against left-handed batters — lefties posted a .146 BA/.239 OBP/.244 SLG against Beliveau last year. Steamer projects a quality year ahead of him.

Grant Balfour, middle relief: Despite ending 2014 on a high note, Balfour should start the season as a low-leverage middle relief pitcher, even if his struggles from last season are behind him as he suggests. Steamer projects that Balfour will slash 3.75 ERA/4.00 FIP/3.88 BB/9 in 2015, better than his 2014 numbers. Yet he is projected to post a significantly higher HR/9 and a lower K/9, which spells doom for a closer. Balfour would either have to regain some velocity and control or compensate in other ways in order to be a late-inning/high-leverage asset to the Rays. If anything, he could be a decent set-up man and have some value in holds.

Ernesto Frieri, middle relief: Ernesto Frieri is an extreme fly-ball pitcher which may just be an asset when you consider who will be prowling the outfield for the Rays. Despite increased HR+FB distances the last few years (a 283.3-foot average in 2014), those numbers should drop inside the Trop — a pitchers ballpark if ever there was one. Frieri was a victim of bad luck last season, with a very low 60.9% LOB and a very high .330 BABIP, but Steamer sees a regression back to the mean in both categories. Steamer also suggests a lowered 2.99 ERA (3.71 FIP) and 1.18 WHIP for 2015. Boding well for Frieri, he posted the best walk rate of his career in 2014, while still striking out batters at a nice clip. He also looks to have some regression in his homer rate — from 2.38 to 1.08 — and BABIP, along with a decent 3.18 BB/9. All told, he could be a nice addition to the Rays’ bullpen.

Kirby Yates, middle relief: Don’t let his 0-2 record in 2014 fool you, Kirby Yates was solid last season, slashing 3.75 ERA/3.74 FIP/.315 BABIP/77.1% LOB/10.5 K/BB. Per Steamer, Yates projects to be solid in 2015 as well, suggesting he’ll slash 3.36 ERA/3.70 FIP/.283 BABIP/76.2% LOB/9.35 K/BB. I can’t see any reason for Yates to start the season in Durham.

Brad Boxberger, setup man and/or middle relief: One half of the dynamic duo known as Jake and the Box, Boxberger was exceptional last season; his 14.47 K/9 and 3.60 K/BB speak to that. Since he was used in several different roles in 2014, it is safe to assume that he will be considered a foundation of the bullpen. He’ll ultimately become the eighth inning guy, however, since the other players in the ranks are less flexible than he, Boxberger might not find himself in that role right off the bat. Robert Baumann (FanGraphs) proposed the idea that Boxberger should get a temporary shot as the closer.

Kevin Jepsen, temporary closer: Kevin Jepsen posted a career-low 2.78 FIP and a career-high 10.38 K/9 last season for the Angels. Steamer suggests Jepsen will regress closer to his career norms, though a 3.01 ERA/3.18 FIP/.287 BABIP/9.59 K9/2.91 KBB line isn’t anything to sneeze at. Jepsen’s fastball velocity remains high, averaging 95.8 mph in 2014, while his curveball and changeup have better ground ball, line drive, and whiff rates than his cutter (which he dropped late in 2014). In short, Jepsen doesn’t walk a ton of guys and has generally induces a lot of ground balls. Jepsen looks to be an apt replacement for Jake McGee until he is ready to reclaim his closing role.

Jake McGee, eventual closer: Jake McGee had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies” in mid-December and projects to miss most of April… Though he expects to return sooner, toward the middle of the month. Per Marc Topkin, the Rays plan to wait until McGee starts throwing in spring training to further define a timetable. Steamer suggests a slight regression from his 2014 numbers, yet he still projects to post above an above average FIP (2.67), ERA (2.28), and K/9 (11.00). He also projects to save 22 games. Depending on his return date and the competitiveness Tampa Bay in general, he could very easily beat that projection.

Who slots in the closer role is unclear. If McGee recovers quickly enough that issue might not even come up. If it looks as though might miss just a few weeks Kevin Cash could opt to close by committee in the early going, thus spreading the high leverage situations between his best available arms.

Tampa Bay depended upon 13+ relievers last season and Kevin Cash will undoubtedly depend upon more than the eight listed above. Steve Geltz, C.J. Riefenhauser, Brandon Gomes, and the recently acquired Jose Dominguez will be used in some capacity. That said, those four have been taken into consideration.

The first thing that pops out is the number of innings both Colome and Gomes are projected to log in the upcoming season. It wouldn’t be reasonable to assume Colome will log 102 innings out of the ‘pen, alone. That number more than likely reflects two things; the amount of time Colome spends as the number five starter combined with the amount of time he spends in the ‘pen.

Likewise, if Gomes makes the squad, it shouldn’t be assumed that he will log only one inning in a Rays uniform. Gomes tallied 34 innings with Tampa Bay last season, and though his cumulative numbers weren’t impressive, he only relinquished two runs in his last eight appearances — and 10 innings of work — in the month of September.

The thing with Gomes, when he depended less on his cutter, his effectiveness increased.

Opposing batters hammered Gomes’ cutter to the tune of a .211 ISO in May, and he was sent to Triple-A because of his overall ineffectiveness. After being recalled from Durham, Gomes was a different pitcher. Why? He cut the pitch from his repertoire. The righty was designated for assignment in December to clear roster space, though a non-roster invitation to attend Spring Training was extended after he accepted an outright assignment to Durham. Gomes is a solid pitcher who can be successful at the major league level, and he could win a spot on the big-league roster out of Spring Training.

Generally speaking, the Rays bullpen is projected to be good once again in 2015. Steamer suggests it will give up significantly fewer earned runs in 2015 than in the previous season — 221 in 2014 vs. 188 in 2015, a difference of 33 runs. Moreover, the ‘pen is slated to deal fewer homers, and post a better BB/9 (191 vs. 201) and ERA. Unfortunately projecting an accrued FIP isn’t the easiest.

In order to calculate FIP, metrics nerds use the following formula:

FIP = ((13 x HR)+(3 x (BB+HBP)) – (2 x K))/IP + constant (in this case, MLB average ERA)

Unfortunately, without having a feel for how many hit by pitches the Rays are projected to accrue, an accurate projection is a forgone conclusion. However, 4.00 is an unscientific estimate. Here’s how I did the math (excepting the HBP total):

4.00 = ((598)+(573) – (1040))/508 + 4.00

It all boils down to how the projections pan out in real-time. The Rays have a tradition for strong relief work, and the talent is there. It will be interesting to see who fills the few open spots, and how Cash chooses to utilize the relief staff. Will he do like his predecessor and lean on a workhorse pitcher — potentially wearing  him thin three-quarters through the season? Will he depend on certain players, in lieu of others, to pitch in high-leverage situations even if they show an inability to perform at that level? The answers to those questions will come in due time.