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LBWMF: Rays come from behind to defeat the Dodgers, 8-7

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Yes, yes it did. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Brandon Lowe hit a critical three-run home run — one of four for the Rays — while Brett Phillips walked it off in the ninth inning, as Tampa Bay defeated Los Angeles on Saturday, 8-7. The World Series is now tied at two games apiece.

Source: FanGraphs

My words cannot adequately express how intense Saturday’s contest was. It might not even be worth trying. I will say this though, if the FanGraphs WPA graph (above) was a roller coaster, it would have been a truly wild and thrilling ride. From the fourth inning on, each team traded blows which set up the improbable walk-off win sparked by Kevin Kiermaier and Randy Arozarena, and with Phillips at the plate. Tampa Bay is now 8-1 in the postseason when they score four runs or more.

For what it’s worth, Dave and Andy articulated things well during the broadcast. They opined that while the Rays may not be as good as the Dodgers, at least on paper, the best teams don’t always win the World Series. Rather, it is the team that takes advantage of the opportunities handed to them. Dave and Andy cited the ’88 Dodgers who weren’t necessarily better than the Athletics, yet they won it all. In their perspective, the Rays simply needed a magical moment akin to Kirk Gibson’s legendary homer — an October moment if you will. Last night’s game very well could have been that.

If you want to read an actual game summary, head over to the Rays Radio blog. Otherwise, what follows is a game recap in photos, videos, and reactions. This is a high, and I’m still coming down.

Down by a pair in the fourth inning, Arozarena belted a first-pitch Julio Urias fastball over the wall in right-center to put the Rays on the board. It was his ninth postseason blast, a new big league record — also allowing him to tie Evan Longoria for the franchise career mark.

https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1320183499257675776?s=20

But the Dodgers answered Arozarena’s homer with a run of their own, however, Hunter Renfroe kept the Rays in the thick of things by blasting a tape-measure solo homer into the second deck in left field, 444 feet away. Renfroe’s massive blast came off the bat at 111.4 mph.

Still, Los Angeles immediately answered in the top of the sixth … but so did Tampa Bay in the home half of the inning.

After Arozarena led off the bottom of the sixth with a single, and Ji-Man Choi earned a free pass, Lowe muscled a 95 mph fastball over the outer third of the plate into the Rays bullpen in left-center, giving Tampa Bay its first lead of the night.

Even so, the Dodgers again answered with two runs in the top of the seventh. Not to be outshined, Tampa Bay also responded with a run in the bottom of the frame.

Kiermaier got all of a hanging 88 mph cement mixer and sent it into the stands in right, tying the game at six.

As with any good boxing match, Los Angeles battled back and took a one-run lead, scoring another two-out run in the top half of the eighth inning, while former Ray Adam Kolarek and Brusdar Graterol teamed up to throw a zero up on the board, setting up the epic ninth-inning comeback against Kenley Jansen.

Jansen allowed a one-out blooper right to Kiermaier, however, Joey Wendle lined to left-center. That allowed Arozarena, who homered off Jansen on Friday, to step into the box with a man on the base paths. Jansen clearly wanted nothing to do with Arozarena and worked around (the new) Mr. October, ultimately allowing him to reach on a free pass. Phillips, who wasn’t on the ALCS roster and pinch-ran an inning earlier, hit a bloop of his own into right-center, allowing Kiermaier to cross the plate.

The ball was bobbled in right-center, although Arozarena slipped and fell as he rounded third. However, Will Smith lost the off-line throw at the plate as Arozarena got back up and dashed home to end the game in dramatic fashion.

The New What Next

On Sunday, Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 6.08 ERA) will pitch opposite of Clayton Kershaw (3-1, 2.88 ERA) in a rematch of game one.

Tyler Glasnow couldn’t keep the Dodgers down on Tuesday. That was due to six free passes. Over his first three frames, Glasnow allowed two walks and a hit while striking out five. However, in the fourth, Max Muncy started the frame by walking on five pitches, then moved into second when Will Smith bounced out slowly to third. Cody Bellinger followed with a two-run homer into the Rays bullpen for a two-run lead. Then in the fifth, Glasnow allowed two more runs on a walk, three stolen bases, and a pair of base hits. The right-hander gave up just three hits, although his six walks were the most he’s allowed with Tampa Bay. Otherwise, he fanned eight on 112 pitches (58 strikes, 52% strike rate, 17% SwStr%).

Clayton Kershaw allowed one run on two hits and one walk while striking out eight across six innings against Tampa Bay. Kershaw’s only mistake was a fifth-inning solo home run to Kevin Kiermaier. Kershaw coaxed 19 swinging strikes on just 78 pitches (53 strikes, 68% strike rate, 36% SwStr%). Interestingly enough, five Rays — Yandy Diaz (.490, .310, and .160 xBA), Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, and Hunter Renfroe (.440 xBA) — made solid, albeit unlucky, contact off Kershaw, who relied primarily on his slider (35, 45%) and four-seam fastball (31, 40%), while also throwing his whiffy curveball (12, 15%). Given that, it will be interesting to see if and how the Rays approach at the plate changes tonight.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Dodgers — a World Series preview

Rays 10/25/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Diaz 1B
  2. Arozarena DH
  3. B. Lowe 2B
  4. Margot LF
  5. Renfroe RF
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— From Neil’s (Solondz, Rays Radio) lips to your ears: “Saturday’s win was just the third World Series game that ended in walk-off fashion, where the winning team trailed prior to the final pitch. It also was just the fifth World Series game to end on an error. In addition, it was the first postseason game where the two teams scored in eight consecutive half innings.”

TNWN: Rays vs. Dodgers — a World Series preview

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World Series bound. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After making their way through the 16-team playoff bracket, as well as three postseason series, the two top-seeded teams will square off against one another in the 2020 World Series. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off dramatic game seven victories in their respective League Championship Series.

Tampa Bay enters play with three of their top hitters — Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz, and Willy Adames — offering the team little in the way of offensive help, having slashed a combined .109 BA/.268 OBP/.124 SLG/.392 OPS with just three extra-base hits in 129 postseason at-bats. This, despite the fact that the three of them posted a wRC+ of 120 or better in at least 100 regular-season plate appearances. Austin Meadows has been all but absent too with the exception of two well-timed home runs. Even so, Lowe, and to an extent Mike Zunino, appear to be breaking out of their offensive slumbers, having gone a combined 6-21 (.286 BA), with four runs, three RBI, and two homers in the last three ball games. Their bats, ideally, should complement those of Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot, both of whom have carried the Rays during the postseason.

Speaking of Arozarena, Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs) put it best:

Arozarena collected five other hits as well, and batted .321/.367/.786 while driving in six runs. In winning LCS MVP honors, he joined the Orioles’ Mike Boddicker (1983 ALCS), the Marlins’ Livan Hernandez (1997 NCS), and the Cardinals’ Michael Wacha (2013 NLCS) — all pitchers — as the only rookies to win the award; Hernandez also won the World Series MVP award, lest Arozarena need to set another goal. They don’t give Division Series MVP awards, but his .421/.476/.895 showing with three home runs against the Yankees, and for that matter his .500/.556/1.000 performance in the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays, might have garnered him additional hardware. The dude is en fuego, hitting a combined .382/.433/.855 through 60 postseason plate appearances, with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases (three doubles, one triple, seven homers).

— Jay Jaffe

Tampa Bay has been a little too home run happy in the postseason, but who am I to judge? After all, the Rays find themselves four victories away from winning it all. Nevertheless, they will need to do more than just hit dingers. Ji-Man Choi reached base three times in each of his last two starts, and that’s a start. Diaz has not squared up a ball, yet he has walked more than he’s struck out. Getting Choi and Diaz going (along with the aforementioned Lowe, Adames, and Meadows) will create more balance for a group that has had just three players carry the offense.

The question begs, Can Tampa Bay stop Los Angeles’ potent offense? The Dodgers scored nearly six runs per game versus their NL West and AL West opponents this season. That’s due in part to their depth. While the Rays can mix and match with the best of them, Los Angeles has the ability to send star-after-star to the plate. Dan Szymborski (FanGraphs) made an apt analogy, it “is a bit like having an opponent who is allowed to angrily shove all of the (chess) pieces off the board and start over.”

The Dodgers simply do better in slugfests than the Rays do, even when they’re on the wrong side of them: in games that start with the opposing team scoring four runs in the top of the first, the Dodgers still project to win 8% of the time, while the Rays can only boast 3% odds. This holds true for all similar scenarios.

— Dan Szymborski

The Dodgers led all of baseball in home runs this season (118) and had five players reach double digits. Tampa Bay had just one player with a double-digit home run total: Brandon Lowe (14).

It will be incumbent upon the Rays to limit the free passes and keep the Dodgers in the park. That, however, is easier said than done. Still, as Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, “the Rays were able to out-homer Houston 11-9 and the Yankees 11-10. The closer the teams are to a wash in this category, the better the chances for Tampa Bay to win the World Series.”

Pitching Probables

Rays manager Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.66 ERA), Blake Snell (2-2, 3.20 ERA), Charlie Morton (3-0, 0.57 ERA), and likely Ryan Yarbrough (1-0, 3.60 ERA) in the front four games. Given the two off-days built into the World Series schedule, that would set the front three hurlers for games five, six, and seven. Dave Roberts will counter with Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 3.32 ERA) in game one, a hurler to be named before game two, Walker Buehler (1-0, 1.89 ERA) in game three, and hurlers to be named before games four and five.

I will update this piece as the situation becomes clear.

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and he was good, but not great. The right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five on 96 pitches (55 strikes, 57% strike rate, 20% SwStr). Glasnow allowed a first-inning solo shot and an RBI double in the third inning to Jose Altuve, and a two-run blast to George Springer on a 99 mph, 3-1 fastball with the game scored knotted up at two in the bottom of the fifth. Yet, he also limited the damage by inducing weak contact and six ground balls. It was a rare power outburst against a hurler that maintained a 1.73 HR/9 in 2020 (and a 0.59 HR/9 in 2019). Glasnow enters his next start — assuming the Rays move on to the World Series — with a 4.66 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, and a 3.1 K/BB across 19-1/3 playoff innings.

Clayton Kershaw surrendered four runs on seven hits and one walk over five-plus innings in game four of the NLCS. He struck out four. Kershaw only gave up a solo homer to Marcell Ozuna during his outing, although he allowed a single and back-to-back doubles to start the sixth before being removed. It should be noted that the southpaw has not been healthy, as he has been dealing with some back issues. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay, however, he maintains a 4.31 postseason ERA extending back to 2008. The left-hander relies primarily on a hard 88 mph worm-killer slider and a 92 mph four-seam fastball which is straight as an arrow and has some added backspin, while also mixing in a 74 mph 12-6 curveball with exceptional bite.

Blake Snell allowed two earned runs on three hits and four walks while striking out four across four innings in game six of the ALCS. Snell was pulled having thrown just 82 pitches (45 strikes, 55% strike rate, 18% SwStr%) after allowing the first two batters of the fifth inning to reach base. He, however, was unsteady through the first four — allowing at least one baserunner in three — yet the only run charged to him came after he exited the game.

TBA

Charlie Morton pushed in his best outing of the season, allowing just two hits across 5-2/3 efficient innings, while striking out six and walking one on 66 pitches (48 strikes, 73% strike rate, 15% SwStr%). Over the first five frames, Morton allowed just one base hit — to Michael Brantley — while striking out five on 49 pitches. Yet, Houston made things interesting in the sixth with the Rays ahead by three. Martín Maldonado walked on four pitches with one out. George Springer followed by grounding into a 5-4 fielder’s choice for the second out. After Jose Altuve worked the count full, and with Springer was on the move, Altuve beat out a chopper to third to put runners on the corners with two outs. Given that Morton’s OPS increased to 1.006 the third time through the order, Rays skipper Kevin Cash called upon Nick Anderson in the high leverage situation. Anderson got Brantley to ground out to second on the second pitch of the at-bat, ending the threat.

Walker Buehler struck out six batters while allowing seven hits and zero walks across six scoreless frames in his last start against Atlanta. Buehler was staked to a three-run lead in the bottom of the first inning, which proved to be all the Dodgers would need in their 3-1 win. The right-hander loaded the bases on three consecutive singles to open the top of the second, but he escaped the jam with a pair of strikeouts and a groundout. He was rarely in much trouble the rest of the way. Buehler opened the regular season with a 5.21 ERA in his first four starts but cruised to a 1.53 ERA in his final four appearances and has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts. Buehler relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin, while also mixing in a firm 82 mph curveball with exceptional bite and slight glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph cutter, an 87 mph Slider that sweeps across the zone and boasts two-plane movement, and a 97 mph sinker with little sinking action. Key Matchup: Manuel Margot (1-4, HR)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings on Tuesday in game three of the ALCS against the Astros. The left-hander picked up the start in a critical game in the series and followed through with a solid outing. He allowed a solo shot in the first inning, although he was effective the rest of the way before he surrendered a leadoff home run in the sixth inning which resulted in his removal. Yarbrough has never faced the Dodgers.

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Rays pitching Staff: 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP overall (starters 3.77 ERA/4.25 FIP, relievers 3.37 ERA/3.65 FIP vs. the Dodgers pitching staff: 3.02 ERA/3.79 FIP (starters 3.29 ERA/4.11 FIP, relievers 2.74 ERA/3.45 FIP)

— Tampa Bay 98’ers, meet the other stable. Although the World Series rosters have not been set, Los Angeles is likely to have as many as eight pitchers whose fastballs averaged 95 mph or faster this season.

— The Rays made a couple of moves on Tuesday, adding LHP Ryan Sherriff and OF Brett Phillips to the World Series roster. To clear space for Sherriff and Phillips, Tampa Bay removed LHP Jose Alvarado and RHP Aaron Slegers from the roster.

Sherriff did not allow a run over 10 regular season appearances (9-2/3 innings) although he has not been active in the postseason. The move gives Tampa Bay six southpaws among the 13 pitchers, with Sherriff joining Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, Aaron Loup, and Shane McClanahan. Keeping Fleming and McClanahan provides length for Kevin Cash.

Per Neil Solondz, the decision on Alvarado may have come down to strike throwing, as he walked three straight batters in game six.

Phillips was active in the Wildcard series and Division Series, although he was not on the ALCS roster when Tampa Bay went with 14 pitchers. With Kevin Kiermaier battling a bad wrist after being hit by a 99 mph pitch in the Championship Series, Phillips provides additional defensive insurance, as well as the ability to pinch-run and pinch-hit. It also will give the Rays a six-man bench.

— “This is what you play for.”

— The City of St. Pete will be hosting Rays/World Series watch parties for all seven games at the new Pier (which is awesome if you haven’t yet gone there). The game will be aired live on a giant screen. It bears mentioning: Each watch party will be a socially distant gathering, where masks are strongly encouraged. You can find out more at the link.

LBWMF: Rays bounce back to defeat the Yankees, 7-5

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Austin Meadows hit one of the Rays four homers on Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a disastrous start to the American League Division Series on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays held on to defeat the New York Yankees in the second game of the set, 7-5. In doing so, both Tyler Glasnow and the Rays set strikeout records, as Glasnow set a team playoff record with 10 punchouts, while the stable notched eight more for a franchise-record 18 strikeouts in a postseason game.

Glasnow got the start and allowed four runs on three hits and three walks across five innings. He struck out 10 and threw 93 pitches (62% strike rate, 28% SwStr). The right-hander allowed a fluke leadoff home run to Giancarlo Stanton into the short porch in right in the second inning, then retired the next six batters in a row, collecting three strikeouts in the process. But he got into trouble in the fourth inning after he allowed a leadoff single to Aaron Hicks and a four-pitch walk to Luke Voit. Three pitches later, Stanton blasted a 97 mph four-seam fastball, on the outer third of the plate, into the second deck in left-field — a shot that measured 118 mph off the bat. The right-hander buckled down though and struck out the side after the home run, posting a quiet fifth inning which included two more swinging strikeouts. Glasnow’s night came to an end after he walked Hicks to leadoff the sixth. Aside from the two misplaced pitches against Stanton, Glasnow dominated the Yankees and gave the Rays an opportunity to win the game.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay went yard in each of the first three frames, and four times in the game.

The Rays took the initial lead in the first inning against 21-year-old Deivi Garcia. Randy Arozarena hammered a 3-2 fastball to right with two outs. Arozarena is now 8-13 in the postseason.

Then in the second inning, Joey Wendle led off with a ground ball single to left. Then with two outs, Mike Zunino blasted a 1-2 fastball off the facade in left for a two-run lead. It was Zunino’s second homer of the postseason.

Up 3-1 in the third, Ji-Man Choi walked with one out before Manuel Margot homered to dead center for a four-run advantage. Tampa Bay was able to get a pair of runners in scoring position on an infield hit by Joey Wendle and a two-base throwing error by J.A. Happ on Willy Adames’ grounder, but Kevin Kiermaier popped out and Zunino struck out to end the threat.

The Rays threatened again in the fourth, although they stranded a runner in scoring position.

Be that as it may, they tacked on an important run an inning later. After Wendle walked against Adam Ottavino, then stole second, Kiermaier lined an RBI single to center off Jonathan Loaisiga (who entered in relief of Ottavino) for a 6-4 lead.

In his first two plate appearances of the night, Austin Meadows put together two long at-bats which, unfortunately, resulted in a pair of outs. Still, he didn’t chase pitches outside of the zone and made good contact. If anything, it appeared that his timing was getting better with each subsequent plate appearance. That was a good omen for the outfielder as Meadows led off the home half of the sixth against Loaisiga with a solo shot to centerfield — his first hit since coming off the Injured List, capping the Rays scoring.

New York retired the next nine hitters, keeping the Yankees within reach.

After retiring the Yankees in order in the top of the sixth inning, Diego Castillo started the seventh and quickly got into trouble. Gleyber Torres walked on a full count pitch while Clint Frazier hit a bloop single into right-center. Enter Nick Anderson

Anderson struck out Gary Sanchez (swinging), D.J. LeMahieu (looking), and Aaron Judge (swinging) to put an end to the threat. He followed that up with a perfect eighth. All told, Anderson threw 22 pitches, of which 19 were strikes (86% strike rate). He also coaxed four swinging strikes (21% SwStr) after inducing none against the Blue Jays in his previous two outings.

Pete Fairbanks took the mound looking for his second save of the postseason in the ninth inning. He promptly walked Gio Urshela on five pitches and Torres on a full-count pitch. With the tying run at the plate, Fairbanks came back to strike out both Frazier and Sanchez — strikeouts No. 17 and 18. Still, the Yankees are a difficult team to keep down for long as exemplified by LeMahieu, who lined a first-pitch single to center, scoring Urshela and drawing them within two. Yet, Judge grounded out to third, ending the game with an orange roof.

As Juan Toribio (MLB.com) noted, the win shifted the odds in the Rays’ favor as teams that have lost Game 1 in a best-of-five series but then gone on to win Game 2 have advanced 28 of 53 times (53 percent).

The New What Next

Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA) will make his 2020 postseason debut, pitching opposite of Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA).

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies two Saturday’s ago and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).

Masahiro Tanaka was knocked around in Game 2 of the American League Wildcard series against Cleveland, allowing six runs on five hits over four innings, while striking out and walking three. Most of the damage was done in the first inning in which five Cleveland hitters reached base and four come around to score. He later allowed the first two batters in the fifth inning to reach base, both of whom would come around to score after he was replaced by a reliever. Tanaka was hit or miss against Tampa Bay this season, allowing two runs or fewer in two outings, while allowing six runs (five earned) in another. Overall, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (6-21, 2 2B), Mike Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (12-39, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR), Austin Meadows (5-19, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 2B, 2 HR)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — an American League Division Series preview

Rays 10/7/20 Starting Lineup

    null
  1. Meadows RF
  2. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena LF
  4. Choi 1B
  5. Tsutsugo DH
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Perez C

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — an American League Division Series preview

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This motley crew will start the best of five AL Division Series against the Yankees in San Diego on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wildcard Series, as well as one last workout at Tropicana Field on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for Petco Park in San Diego, where they will face the division-rival New York Yankees in the best of five American League Division Series, starting Monday. The Yankees are coming off a series sweep against Cleveland.

The brief set against the Blue Jays exemplified Tampa Bay’s season. In the first game the Rays pitching staff — led by Blake Snell — limited Toronto to just one run, while the offense took advantage of a wild pitch for the first run of the contest before Manuel Margot hit his first career postseason home run in the bottom of the seventh. Then in game number two, Mike Zunino and Hunter Renfroe used the long ball to plate six runs in the second inning, as the Rays outpaced the Jays, 8-2. All told, Snell and Tyler Glasnow combined for 16 of the pitching staff’s total 26 punchouts across the two ball games.

The Yankees did as they are wont to do in their iteration of the Wildcard series: mash their way to victory against Cleveland while performing to a .653 SLG and a 1.062 OPS across 93 plate appearances, including 11 extra-base hits. But they also did something they’re accustomed to, strike out 24.7% of the time. You can expect the Rays hurlers to exploit that latent whiffiness this week. I know, I know … the Rays also have a lot of swing-and-miss in them. However — and as Brian Anderson regularly said throughout the season — because the Yankees are so dependent upon the long ball, they can be pitched to. The 22 combined runs against Cleveland, arguably, had more to do with a pitching staff that couldn’t keep the Evil Empire in the yard. In the regular season, Tampa Bay proved they can beat you with the long ball, they can beat you by playing small ball, and they can beat you on the mound.

It was another contentious season battle between a pair of rivals that have had a penchant for heated ball games extending all the way back to Spring Training 2008. This season, all the chirping and ill feelings toward one another resulted in the infamous 101 mph pitch at Mike Brosseau’s head which spawned the fabled Tampa Bay 98ers stable.

98ers Rays’ centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier summed things up well on Friday, saying,

With all the history that we’ve had the last couple years, it is what it is. I’ve said it many times: they don’t like us, we don’t like them, and it’s going to continue to stay that way. It’s going to be a very fun, energetic, exciting (series). And I know each team is going to want to try to put it to the opposition. I know that for a fact. So it’s going to be two great teams playing against each other. I know our guys are really excited, we’re ready to go. So I’m very confident. And we plan on having the same thoughts once we get out west and expecting to win that series.

— Kevin Kiermaier

New York’s entitled corps of players attempted to use fear and intimidation against Tampa Bay this season and, well … that strategy clearly was not a winning one. The Rays were neither fearful of, nor intimidated by, the Yankees in 2020. The division champs went 8-2 against the fourth-place seed who scuffled to a 4-6 record across the final 10 games of the season. What’s more, the Rays put up a +13 run differential against the Yanks in 2020, limited them to 13 total home runs, a .691 OPS, and a .117 batting average with runners in scoring position. Moreso, New York averaged 3.4 runs per game while Tampa Bay totaled 4.7 RPG in their meetings.

Because of all this, expect a tense and compelling series that will probably go all five games.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash has committed to throwing Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-4, 4.05 ERA). Aaron Boone will counter with Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA), Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 5.11 ERA). I will update this piece when any changes are announced.

Blake Snell matched the franchise postseason record for the most strikeouts in a start over his 5-2/3 innings of work. Across the first five frames, the southpaw allowed just a two-out walk to Randal Grichuk the first inning and a one-out free pass to Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth that was erased on a double-play ground ball off the bat of Jonathan Villar. Snell struck out eight over that stretch.

Yet, Alejandro Kirk led off the sixth inning by lining a fastball to right for the first hit off Snell. Then number nine hitter Danny Jansen followed fly-ball out to right during a nine-pitch at-bat. Cavan Biggio struck out which ended up being the last batter Snell would face. He threw 82 pitches (48 strikes, 59% strike rate, 38% SwStr%) during his outing. Snell’s exit had more to do with an offense that struggled to put runs on the board, than anything having to do with the hurler’s efficacy or lack thereof. Had the Rays put more than one run on the board through the front six, Cash likely wouldn’t have turned to the bullpen. But that’s all speculation. Snell is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts against the Yankees, and 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against them in 2020. Of note, the left-hander limited right-handed hitters to a .733 OPS this season.

Gerrit Cole allowed two runs on six hits across seven innings on Tuesday, in Game 1 of the AL Wildcard round. He struck out 13 and did not issue a walk. Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a game where everyone expected a pitchers’ duel, lasting seven frames. The Yankees’ ace threw 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) while fanning an impressive number of batters. The right-hander recorded a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 3.89 FIP during the regular season. This season Cole went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA against the Rays, including a five-inning four-run, eight-hit outing which included a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (9-17, 3 2B, 3 HR), Yandy Díaz (5-15, HR), Manuel Margot (4-16, 2B)

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and posted six innings of two-run baseball on six hits (including two solo homers) and one walk while striking out eight.

We showed the potential of what we can do on both sides of the ball. Obviously, in Game 1 we had Blake throw an absolute gem and we were able to scrape enough runs to win, and today showed the bats coming alive and Tyler allowing just two and the bullpen keeping it where it was. I think it just solidifies who we are as a team.

— Mike Zunino

After a 1-2-3 first, Glasnow worked around a pair of singles in the top of the second, yet without incurring any damage. Then, staked to a seven-run lead in the third inning, Danny Jansen launched a solo home run off the right-hander that left a dent in the catwalk above the left-field stands. Bo Bichette followed by earning a walk, but Glasnow buckled down and the Jays settled for just a run. In the fifth inning, Jansen blasted another lead-off solo shot yet that is all he would, or the Rays, allow. Glasnow finished his outing having thrown 86 pitches (55 strikes, 64% strike rate, 20% SwStr%). He held Toronto to 0-for-8 with four punchies with runners in scoring position.

It feels great. We had a bunch of confidence going into this. Everyone went out there with no pressure, just kind of loose like we’ve been all year. Especially in that second inning, just to watch the momentum and the adrenaline from the grand slam, it was a pretty special moment.

T

— Tyler Glasnow

Deivi Garcia struck out seven after allowing four runs on seven hits and one walk across 6-2/3 innings two Saturdays ago against the Marlins. The rookie right-hander allowed three runs on four hits during the third inning, but he otherwise did a good job of limiting the Marlins. Garcia finished his rookie campaign with a 4.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 5.5 K/BB over 27-2/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup, a 76 mph curveball, and an 83 mph slider.

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies two Saturday’s ago and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).

Masahiro Tanaka was knocked around in Game 2 of the American League Wildcard series against Cleveland, allowing six runs on five hits over four innings, while striking out and walking three. Most of the damage was done in the first inning in which five Cleveland hitters reached base and four come around to score. He later allowed the first two batters in the fifth inning to reach base, both of whom would come around to score after he was replaced by a reliever. Tanaka was hit or miss against Tampa Bay this season, allowing two runs or fewer in two outings, while allowing six runs (five earned) in another. Overall, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (6-21, 2 2B), Mike Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (12-39, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR), Austin Meadows (5-19, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 2B, 2 HR)

Ryan Yarbrough will serve as the primary pitcher for Thursday’s contest against the Yankees and is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. It isn’t yet known whether he will get the start or pitch behind an opener. In his final outing of the regular season, Yarbrough allowed no runs on three hits while striking out four across 3-1/3 innings against the Phillies. The left-hander has been very good even though his record may not reflect that, maintaining a 2.57 ERA and a 1.76 FIP, and a 0.00 HR/9. Over his career against the Yankees, Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in six starts (20 IP).

Jordan Montgomery allowed three runs on six hits across 5-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on September 24. He struck out eight without walking a batter. The southpaw threw 88 pitches (60 strikes, 68% strike rate) in a solid outing, although he got outpitched by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Montgomery finished the regular season on a roll, posting a 4.02 ERA and an impressive 8 K/BB over his final three starts and 15-2/3 innings. The left-hander lasted all of 2/3 of an inning in his lone start against Tampa Bay this season, as he allowed four runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk on 39 pitches. All told, Montgomery is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Randy Arozarena (1-1, HR), Michael Brosseau (1-1, HR), Yandy Diaz (1-2), Manuel Margot (1-1, 2B), Austin Meadows (2-2)

Noteworthiness

— The final ALDS roster decisions have been made and outfielder Austin Meadows (oblique strain) has been activated from the Injured List ahead of the series against the Yankees. In order to make room for Meadows, 1B/3B Nate Lowe has been left off the 28-man roster.

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— Cash also decided to carry 13 pitchers on the roster, the same as a week ago for the Wildcard series. LHP Shane McClanahan has once again cracked the roster. He was added to the 40-man and the playoff roster for the Wildcard round although he did not pitch. McClanahan’s first appearance would be his MLB debut. He can work multiple innings.

José Alvarado (lat strain) has not been activated, and left-hander Josh Fleming was again left off, suggesting that Blake Snell would pitch in a game five situation, or that the Rays would go with a bullpen game if there is a deciding contest.

— For once, the Rays will actually play prime-time baseball.

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — a postseason series preview

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Headgear or neck gaiter … it’s all somewhat similar for Joey Wendle. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After collecting one last series sweep this past weekend — the seventh on the season — the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they are set to play in the best of three Wildcard series, starting Tuesday. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Orioles over the weekend.

Tampa Bay enters its second consecutive postseason 20 games over .500 and with the best record in the American League at 40-20 (which extrapolates to a 108-54 record across a 162 game season). Meanwhile, Toronto clinched the final AL playoff spot and finished the season eight games behind the Rays in the loss column (equivalent to a 22 game gap in a 162 game season).

Despite how unfair you may think that this season’s playoff bracket might be — and let’s be honest, it is ridiculous that the best team in the American League will be facing the number eight seed in a Wildcard series — that’s neither here nor now. Both teams will play at most three games to determine who moves on to southern California and who goes home. Yet, it is still better than the one-and-done first round of the playoffs from years past. At any rate, blink and either team could be one game shy of elimination.

The Rays are the favored team because of their pitching staff — they’ll have the advantage in all three potential games of this series when you take starters and relievers into account. What’s more, the Rays offense is marginally better — Tampa Bay managed a 109 wRC+ in 2020 while the Blue Jays performed to a 108 wRC+ — and expect Kevin Cash to deploy more hitters in advantageous positions than Charlie Montoyo, who has less roster flexibility. Put another way, as Ben Clemens (FanGraphs) writes, “Toronto has a puncher’s chance, and they have offensive stars, but those stars will have to succeed through difficult initial conditions while Tampa’s hitters face their preferred type of pitching.”

Yandy Díaz, one of Tampa Bay’s most important right-handed bats, looks ready to return for the playoffs, as does Ji-Man Choi. That gives Kevin Cash the ability to play Díaz and Mike Brosseau on the infield corners, with an all right-handed outfield of Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe against Matt Shoemaker and Robbie Ray, both of whom are better against southpaw hitters. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, both Diaz and Choi tend to stabilize the team’s free-swinging ways.

Diaz had a .428 on-base percentage before a hamstring injury sidelined him, but he also changes the look of the Tampa Bay lineup. When he was gone, the walks for the team went down (11.5% walk for the team pre-injury, 9.6% after) and the strikeouts went up by a significant margin (24.2% pre-Diaz injury, 31.1% after). Ji-Man Choi’s ability to work at-bats also could help significantly, and would take pressure off several players who moved up in the lineup in their absence.

— Neil Solondz

This series will likely come down to which team out pitches the other. The Rays boast the fourth-lowest ERA when you adjust for their home stadium, thanks in part to the core starters who are fully stretched out. Toronto, on the other hand, is 18th in park-adjusted ERA. And yes, that is including starters Matt Shoemaker and  Hyun-jin Ryu, both of whom gave Tampa Bay’s hitters fits this season.

After the starters, Cash will turn things over to The Stable, his highest-leverage relievers — Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, John Curtiss, and Diego Castillo — who combined for a 1.17 ERA and 2.95 FIP this season. They struck out 32.85% of the batters they faced. Anderson in particular performed to a 0.55 ERA and a 1.35 FIP on the season while striking out a disgusting 44.8% of his opponents and walking just three total batters across 16-1/3 innings of work. Bear in mind too, Cash can turn to Ryan Yarbrough, Ryan Sherriff, Ryan Thompson, or Aaron Loup as he sees fit.

Still, Toronto finished the season playing its best baseball, winning four consecutive ball-games against the Yankees and Orioles before dropping the season finale. Even so, they also went 5-5 over the final 10 games of the season. For their part, the Rays also finished the season strong, winning four in a row, and eight of their last 10.

Be that as it may, the Blue Jays were tough competitors against the Rays this season. Eight of the 10 games between the two clubs were decided by just one or two runs. And even though Tampa Bay won 60% of the matchups, they went 4-3 against the Jays at the Trop and were outscored by four runs in total.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), and Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 4.71 ERA), Hyun-jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (4-3, 2.70 ERA).

Blake Snell gave up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out nine against the Mets last Tuesday. After keeping the ball in the yard in both of his prior two starts, Snell couldn’t keep the streak going Tuesday, as both Robinson Cano and Yonder Alonso took him deep for solo shots. That was enough offense to back Seth Lugo, who outdueled Snell by allowing only two runs (one earned) over 6-1/3 innings. Even so, Snell matched his season-high in strikeouts, with the southpaw racking up 22 swinging strikes among his 108 pitches (67 strikes, 62% strike rate, 33% SwStr%). The left-hander allowed two runs across 7-2/3 innings against Toronto this season (two outings) for a 2.35 ERA. Overall, Snell is 4-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 13 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Matt Shoemaker allowed one run on three hits and two walks across three innings on Monday against the Yankees. He struck out one. It was a short start for Shoemaker, as he was only built up to throw a maximum of 60 pitches after being held out since August 21 with a lat strain. He was able to log three innings on 54 pitches, allowing an RBI single to Gio Urshela in the second inning. The finesse right-hander is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts (15 innings) against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (3-4), Brandon Lowe (3-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Glasnow allowed solo shots to Andres Gimenez and Dominic Smith, but he was otherwise dominant. The right-hander has won three consecutive starts and five of his last six outings. He enters the postseason with a respectable 4.08 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB across 57-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

Hyun-jin Ryu allowed five hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings on Thursday against the Yankees. He struck out four. The veteran left-hander came through with another dazzling effort to clinch a playoff berth for Toronto. Ryu heads into the postseason with a 2.69 ERA and a 4.24 K/BB through 67 innings. Ryu is 0-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchup: Yoshi Tsutsugo (1-4, HR)

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies on Saturday and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%). Morton is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.

Taijuan Walker retired all nine batters he faced before giving way to the bullpen on Friday. He struck out four. With an eye on setting up his postseason rotation, Charlie Montoyo pulled Walker after only 42 pitches (28 strikes, 67% strike rate), denying the right-hander a chance at his fifth win of the season. This came after he struck out eight Phillies in his previous start. Since joining the Jays, Walker has posted a stellar 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.72 K/BB over 26-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard 86 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph splitter with a ton of backspin, a 93 mph sinker, and a 75 mph curveball with exceptional bite. Walker is 0-0 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have announced that Kevan Smith, Ryan Sherriff and Josh Fleming did not make the Wildcard round roster, although they are still in the playoff pool and eligible for future rounds. Additionally, they have have formally announced that Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Díaz have been activated and are on the playoff roster. Shane McClanahan has also been selected and will make his big-league debut in the postseason. Sean Gilmartin has been designated for assignment to make room the on the 40-man roster.


— Let’s Get Wild!

— By the by, Dave and Andy on the radio side will be calling the games for Tampa Bay.

— …Lest I forget

https://twitter.com/TriciaWhitaker/status/1310612027849797632?s=20

— And finally