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The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

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Tommy Pham scored on a sixth-inning double by CJ Cron on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following their 5-2 win in the road finale against the Blue Jays on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field ahead of a four-game series against the New York Yankees. In spite of the two tough losses in Toronto, the Rays won five of seven during their last road trip of the season. The Yankees took two of three from the lowly Orioles, yet fell 6-3 on Sunday. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 10-10 over a 20-game stretch.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

There is still a way the Rays can make it to the playoffs, albeit one that is absolutely improbable: Tampa Bay must win all seven games on their homestand against the Yankees and Blue Jays, while the Athletics must lose the final six games of their season. The odds of that happening are astronomical, to say the least.

Still, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) opined, the Rays might be motivated to make life tough on the rival Yankees, who are trying to keep the home-field advantage in the AL Wildcard game. On top of that, the team has a chance to finish with 90-plus wins, thus defying even the bullish 85-win PECOTA projection from February. And while that may not offer much solace to the casual fan, two things bear mentioning:

  1. The Rays are a young team with a high upside for years to come. A successful season at the big league level will go a long way for the kids.
  2. The last time the Rays put together a 90+ win campaign without the benefit of a trip to the playoffs (in 2012), they played relevant games past September 30 the following season — a game 163 tie-breaker, and the subsequent Wildcard win thrust them into the ALDS against Boston.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As has been the case for the second half of the season (.268 BA/.346 OBP/.430 SLG/.776 OPS/.336 wOBA/115 +wRC for Tampa Bay vs .242 BA/.326 OBP/.424 SLG/.750 OPS/.325 wOBA/103 wRC+ for New York) the Rays have outperformed the Yankees offensively over the last 14 days. The question begs, however: Can the Rays continue their recent dominance over the Yankees? Tampa Bay has won eight of the last 10 games against the Bronx Bummers after starting the season 0-5. Moreover, the Rays are 5-1 against the Yankees at home.

Pitching Probables

Note: It is rather difficult to project who will take the mound over the life of the series since only one hurler has been named; Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open the series for the Rays. Beyond that, it’s a reasonable assumption the below-listed hurlers will toe the rubber for dueling foes this week, based on when they last pitched. This projection is in no way, shape, or form set in stone. I will make note of any changes as they are announced, either in this series preview or in subsequent articles.

Kevin Cash could lean primarily on Ryan Yarbrough (15-5, 3.88 ERA), Yonny Chirinos (4-5, 3.68 ERA), Jalen Beeks (5-1, 5.36 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA) over the next four days. Aaron Boone could counter with Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (12-5, 3.67 ERA), CC Sabathia (8-7, 3.77 ERA), and Lance Lynn (9-10, 4.80 ERA).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Diego Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Ryan Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Luis Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Yonny Chirinos tossed 4-2/3 scoreless innings, yet took a no-decision on Thursday, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out five. After the “opener” Ryne Stanek allowed three straight hits to start the second inning, Chirinos came in and shut the Blue Jays down. The 24-year-old now owns a 3.68 ERA and would’ve earned the victory had it not been for a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed five earned runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out three across four innings on Thursday against the Red Sox. Tanaka never got comfortable on the mound, allowing at least one earned run in three of the four innings he completed. It was his highest earned run total since August 10, and the first time he has not worked at least five innings in his last eight turns. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA against the Rays this season, including a complete game shutout on July 24. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-6, 2B), Carlos Gomez (3-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (7-22, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2, 2B), Tommy Pham (2-3, 2B, RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

CC Sabathia allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five across six innings in a win against Baltimore on Friday. The southpaw surrendered a two-run single in the fifth inning but exited the ballgame with a four-run lead after throwing 59 of 97 pitches for strikes (61% strike rate). Sabathia was coming off a seven-run, 2-1/3 inning outing — his shortest start of the season. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 135 strikeouts through 148 innings this season. Sabathia is 0-2 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, RBI), Matt Duffy (5-9, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (9-21, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Adam Moore (1-2)  

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite giving up three runs in six innings. He allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while fanning six. The right-hander gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on Rowdy Tellez’s two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. Glasnow notched his fourth quality start in five outings although he is 1-5 in his last six turns.

Lance Lynn didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) in five innings. He allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out four along the way. Lynn has worked either five or six innings and given up two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. He has done just enough to eat innings at the back end of New York’s rotation with questionable depth. In spite of a 4.80 ERA and 4.39 BB/9 on the season, he’s fanned 9.20 batters per nine across 153-2/3 innings. Lynn last faced the Rays on April 20, in a 6 IP/7 H/5 R/5 BB outing. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-2, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3) 

LBWMF: Rays punish Blue Jays, 11-3; Andy Fletcher’s liberal strike zone

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Austin Meadows collected three hits in his debut with the Rays Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays struck early and often Friday night, bouncing back from a soul-crushing loss to defeat the Toronto Blue Jays, 11-3.

We’ve got a bunch of guys who are quick to forget a loss, manager Kevin Cash said. They bounced right back and put pressure on the defense and the pitchers right out of the gate.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need help from the Twins and Orioles this weekend, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Athletics and 8 games behind the Yankees with 9 games remaining.

Austin Meadows, the 23-year-old outfielder that was acquired at the trade deadline in the Chris Archer deal, came up big, collecting three hits while driving in three and scoring twice. Meadows replaced Ji-Man Choi, who was pulled due to a knee soreness in the sixth inning and singled in his first at-bat, cashing in a pair of runs, before he swiped second and scored later in the inning.

In the inning that followed, Meadows drove in Mallex Smith from second when a ground ball found its way through a hole in the left side of the infield. Two batters later, he came around to score when Joey Wendle doubled to center.

Meadows finished the night 3-for-3 with a pair of singles and a one-out double in the ninth.

I felt pretty good up in the box (Thursday night), Meadows said. I thought I felt good as well tonight. … I was able to pull out three hits right there and help the team.

Smith affected the outcome once more, reaching base three times and scoring two runs while plating one. He was pulled from the game in the seventh inning with an ankle injury that he sustained running into the outfield wall to make a catch in the fifth.

The defensive change was a precautionary move as Rays manager Kevin Cash expects Smith to be in the lineup Saturday afternoon.

Tommy Pham continued to prove his worth in the lineup, pushing his on-base streak to 23 games with a 2-for-3 night, which included a pair of walks, two RBI and a run scored.

After the game, Pham spoke to why he has been so productive in spite of getting banged up since the trade deadline:

I’ve been driving the ball. There haven’t been as many ground balls as earlier in the season. I think that’s key for me, using the whole field because I hit the ball hard, and when I use the whole field, it’s kind of hard to defend.

According to Aaron Rose (MLB.com) Pham has increased his average launch angle by 2.9 degrees since joining the Rays on July 31, according to Statcast™. Coming into Friday night, it had led to 10.6 percent fewer ground balls and an OPS 286 points higher than the .730 he posted with St. Louis this season.

All told, the Rays plated 11 runs on 15 hits and eight walks, again without the benefit of hitting any homers.

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (2-6, 4.22 ERA) will get the start for the Rays on Saturday after a disastrous seven-run, two-thirds inning performance in his last start against Toronto. He’ll pitch opposite of Thomas Pannone (3-1, 3.77).

Tyler Glasnow allowed the only hits on the night and struck out six over six scoreless innings, allowing the right-hander to pick up his first victory with Tampa Bay in nine starts. The only other baserunner against Glasnow came on a one-out hit by pitch of Rougned Odor in the first inning. Odor later swiped second base and moved up 90 feet on a wild pitch. He, however, struck out Adrian Beltre with two outs to escape the threat.

After the rough first inning, Glasnow found a rhythm on the mound and retired the next 11 batters he faced — taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

But with two outs In the bottom of the fifth, the right-hander allowed an infield single to Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Texas’ first hit on the night.

Be that as it may, outside of a bad start against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5, in which he allowed seven runs and lasted just two-thirds of an inning, Glasnow has been strong for the Rays, allowing one run or fewer in five of his nine starts, and yielding two hits or fewer in five starts.

He was outstanding. I liked everything, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. I thought he was out of rhythm in the first inning, and I thought he did a nice job of kind of calming the situation down, getting the ball over the plate. He had the breaking balls, the fastballs going, and he threw some changeups. … He’s done just outstanding. The runs he’s given up, it seems like they come off solo home runs a lot, which is fine. Keeping guys off base, and if they’re going to get you, you’d rather it be a solo shot. With the exception of Toronto, we’ve been in every single game. He’s given us an opportunity to win every single game that he’s been out there.

Thomas Pannone allowed two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six across seven innings on Sunday. Pannone got off to a shaky start after giving up two runs in the first inning, though he managed to bounce back and finish his day with six consecutive scoreless frames. The 24-year-old has appeared in just 10 games this season for Toronto (four starts) and owns a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 21 punchouts through 31 innings. Pannone has appeared in two games against the Rays this season, allowing two runs on four hits across 2-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Joey Wendle (1-2, 2B)

Rays 9/22/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Pham LF
Duffy 3B
Cron 1B
Wendle 2B
Adames SS
Meadows RF
Gomez DH
Sucre C
Glasnow RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

Noteworthiness

— Ji-Man Choi is not expected to start Saturday.

— After being tossed from Thursday’s game, Carlos Gomez went to the clubhouse and posted several tweets criticizing the performance of home plate umpire Andy Fletcher. Gomez didn’t back down Friday, accusing Fletcher of missing “more than 30” pitches.

He’s the one that should have been thrown out last night because he’s the only one who didn’t do his job, Gomez said.

Gomez will likely be punished by the league, although he does have a point. Fletcher did have a rather liberal strike zone Thursday night as illustrated by Brooks Baseball.

Note: green “dots” are balls, red “dots” are strikes.

The New What Next: Rays vs Rangers, part two — a series preview

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The Rays finished off their nine-game homestand with a 7-2 record, including four wins against two pretty good teams. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays finished off their penultimate homestand of the 2018 season in dramatic fashion, winning two out of three against the Oakland Athletics, who lead them in the AL Wildcard race with 14 left to play. Following the 5-4 win against Oakland on Sunday, the Rays hit the road for their final road trip of the season, kicking off with a three-game series against the Texas Rangers, in Arlington. The Rangers are coming off a two-game series win against the Padres, although they dropped their series finale in San Diego.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

While improbable (yet not impossible), the Rays are still in the fight for a postseason berth. They start the series with the Rangers seven games behind the Athletics — although they did pick up a couple of games this weekend — and surprisingly 8-1/2 games behind the Yankees, whom they’ll face at home from September 24 – 27. Tampa Bay does have a tragic number of seven, so it will be incumbent on the kids to keep up their tepid spate of play in the hope that either the Athletics or the Yankees — who have lost five of their last 10 — will fall off the pace.

For what it’s worth, the A’s will face the Angels six more times this season, and the Mariners three more times. Thus far the Athletics are 6-7 vs. Anaheim and 7-9 vs. Seattle. Meanwhile, the Yankees open up a series against Red Sox on Monday, and they are 5-8 against Boston this season.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Even though Texas has gone 6-9 over the last 15 games, there really isn’t an opportunity for the Rays to take the Rangers for granted. Tampa Bay beat Texas two games to one back in April, although with just a +1 run differential. If the previous two series against Cleveland and Oakland were must wins in order to gain ground in the postseason chase, this set is equally as important as Tampa Bay attempts to keep pace with the Athletics and now the Yankees.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (1-6, 4.48 ERA), AL Cy Young Award candidate Blake Snell (19-5, 2.03 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before Thursday’s ballgame. Jeff Banister will counter with Adrian Sampson (0-1, 1.80 ERA), Yovani Gallardo (8-5. 5.94 ERA), and Yohander Méndez (1-1, 5.54 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tyler Glasnow tossed a solid bounce-back performance last Tuesday, after giving up seven runs in his previous outing against Toronto. With the game tied at zero in the fifth inning, Yan Gomes launched a 0-1 breaking ball over the centerfield wall, his 14th home run of the season. An inning later, Edwin Encarnacion crushed a first-pitch fastball into the left-field seats, his 30th. Those were the only runs Glasnow would allow across seven innings as he limited Cleveland to six hits while striking out three. Glasnow has given up just three runs in 14 innings against Cleveland, yet he has not received any run support.

Adrian Sampson allowed one run on two hits and a walk while striking out two across five innings on Tuesday. Sampson was a hard-luck loser as Texas was shut down by a parade of Angels relievers. The right-hander doesn’t have overpowering stuff and threw mostly sinkers, mixing in a changeup or a slider from time to time in what became his second career big league start. The right-hander made his first start back in 2016, but suffered a flexor tendon injury in his right arm while warming up for his second and has spent two years trying to get back to the bigs.

Blake Snell picked up his 19th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on just one hit and two walks while striking out nine across seven innings. Snell was dominant, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning before serving up a leadoff solo homer to Jose Ramirez on a hanging curveball. The southpaw has now won seven consecutive games, while his 19 wins are the most in the majors. Snell also owns an impressive 2.03 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9 across 28 starts this season, putting him firmly in the AL Cy Young discussion.

Yovani Gallardo allowed six runs on six hits and one walk while fanning four over three innings of a loss to the Angels on Wednesday. Four of the six hits allowed went for extra bases, including a two-run homer by Jose Fernandez, which essentially knocked Gallardo out of the game. Gallardo’s results have gone in the opposite direction since he started the season 7-1 thanks to unsustainable run support. He has lost four of his last five decisions and resembles a pitcher with a 6.67 ERA/5.91 FIP. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (3-8, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (6-15, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB)

TBA

Yohander Méndez pitched well on Friday, tossing five scoreless innings of relief while allowing three hits and three walks with five strikeouts. He was called upon after “opener” Connor Sadzeck tossed one scoreless inning. Mendez has managed to drop his ERA from 14.73 to 3.86 over his last 15 innings, giving up just two runs and seven hits over that span. This season, he has relied primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action but little natural movement, while also mixing in a firm 84 mph changeup with slight cutting action, a 91 mph sinker, and 85 mph slider, and an 80 mph curveball. Key Matchups: Jesus Sucre (1-1)

The New What Next: Rays vs Cleveland, part two — a series preview

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The kids absolutely demoralized the Orioles this weekend past, sweeping the series and plating 32 total runs. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A day after the Tampa Bay Rays sent the Orioles back to Baltimore in the throes of a four-game losing streak, they welcome the AL Central-leading squad from Cleveland into the Trop for an important three-game series. The Rays outscored the birds 32-10, while Cleveland split a four-game series against the Blue Jays.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay continued its hot run this past weekend and have won 16 of 20 overall. Of those 16 wins, two came against Cleveland who the Rays faced a little more than a week ago. Suffice it to say, they are playing their best baseball since 2013 — when the Rays last went to the postseason.

Tampa Bay has won 11 consecutive games at Tropicana Field, improving to 78-64 on the season. Not since finishing the 2013 season at 92-71 have the Rays been as many as 14 games over .500.

Cleveland has gone 5-5 over the last 10 games, including losses to the Rays, Royals, and BlueJays. To their credit, Cleveland has performed very well against the AL Central, however, it’s a different story against teams outside of the division, having gone 35-37. While Cleveland has fared well on the road, they have won only four more games than they have lost (37-33).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

According to BaseRuns, the Rays should have an 84-57 record thanks to 4.52 runs scored and 3.68 runs allowed (on average per game). Compare that to Cleveland, which has performed to their 81-61 record per the same metric. That is to say, Tampa Bay is a better team, at least statistically. Still, good pitching defeats good hitting, and Cleveland’s top of the rotation hurlers will take the mound this week.

In short, this will be an important series for the Rays as they try to keep pace with the Athletics in the AL Wildcard race. A series win will give Tampa Bay a lot of swagger going to the weekend series against Oakland, while a loss will surely make it a lot more difficult to reach the postseason.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Jalen Beeks (4-1, 5.67 ERA) — who will take the mound after opener Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.40 ERA) — Tyler Glasnow (1-5, 4.64 ERA), and Blake Snell (18-5, 2.06 ERA). Terry Francona will counter with Corey Kluber (18-7, 2.75 ERA), Shane Bieber (9-3, 4.63 ERA), and Carlos Carrasco (15-8, 3.43 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Diego Castillo last pitched on Saturday, throwing one inning of scoreless ball, but allowing one hit and a walk. Castillo has opened five times, allowing three runs across 6-1/3 innings of work.

Jalen Beeks continued to show well with Tampa Bay on Tuesday, hurling 2-2/3 shutout innings against Toronto while allowing one hit and no walks. He struck out four. Beeks cruised through Toronto’s lineup until the sixth inning when he gave up a leadoff single Aledmys Díaz, who was sacrificed to second a batter later. He was pulled shortly after when the Rays skipper chose to play the matchup game. Still, the left-hander threw 77% of his 31 pitches for strikes, as well as 8/9 first-pitch strikes. Over the span of his eight outings with the Rays, Beeks has progressively lowered his ERA from 15.83 to 5.67 where it currently sits.

Corey Kluber picked up the win Wednesday against Kansas City, allowing one run on two hits and one walk across 6-2/3 innings. He struck out 10. It was business as usual for Kluber, who allowed just two hits all evening while keeping the bases clear for five of the seven innings he appeared in. His 10 punch-outs were the most he’s recorded in a start since May 30, and he’s now primed to surpass 200 strikeouts for the fifth consecutive season. Kluber was outstanding in his last start against Tampa Bay, throwing seven shutout innings while allowing just two hits. Overall, Kluber is 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA in nine starts against the Rays, but 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four starts at the Trop. That extra earned run allowed will be important for Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-8, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (3-11, 2B, 3B, 3 BB), Joey Wendle (1-3)

Tyler Glasnow was hit hard by the Blue Jays on Wednesday, allowing seven runs on five hits and two walks while recording just two outs. He struck out two. The right-hander just didn’t have it in this one, as Glasnow couldn’t make it out of the first inning. He issued a leadoff walk before allowing four of the next five batters to reach via base hits, putting Toronto up 3-0. Glasnow then served up a three-run homer to Aledmys Diaz. Adding insult to injury, the 25-year-old was almost out of the inning, but a wild pitch allowed Billy McKinney to reach base on a strikeout and Glasnow was chased after having thrown 39 pitches. The disastrous outing raised his ERA from 3.95 to 4.64.

Shane Bieber allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits and one walk while striking out six across 6-1/3 innings on Thursday against the Blue Jays. All four of the runs against Bieber came in the fourth inning when he allowed four of the first five batters he faced to reach base. It was an impressive outing for Bieber otherwise, as 15 of his 19 outs came on either groundballs or strikeouts, limiting Toronto’s chance to do damage. It was a welcome change for Bieber, who had failed to record a quality start in three of his past four starts. The Rays tagged Bieber for four runs on nine hits across 5-1/3 innings on September 1. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Jake Bauers (1-2, 2B), Ji-Man Choi (2-3, 2 2B), Matt Duffy (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Brandon Lowe (1-2), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B)

Blake Snell threw five innings of scoreless ball on 90 pitches on Friday but was chased in the sixth after giving up a one-out infield hit to Cedric Mullins, then a two-run homer to Joey Rickard. It was Rickard’s fourth homer against Tampa Bay this season, giving him 17 of his 23 total runs batted in against the Rays. All told, Snell struck fanned nine and allowed five hits across 5-1/3 innings and 104 pitches (72 strikes, 69% strike rate, 15/20 first-pitch strikes).

I felt like I was around the zone, for the most part, Snell said. The offense did very well. Gave me a quick lead. All credit goes to them.

Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits while striking out 14 across eight innings on Friday. Carrasco surrendered an unearned run in the fifth inning on a sacrifice fly, followed by another run in the seventh. Despite fanning 10 or more batters for the fifth time this season, he left with the game tied at two apiece. The right-hander was sharp following an uncharacteristic outing his last turn through the rotation, allowing five runs across 6-1/3 innings against the Rays. The 31-year-old owns a solid 3.43 ERA/2.95 FIP with 199 strikeouts over 168 innings this season. Carrasco is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA in nine career starts against the Rays, and 4-0 with a 1.11 ERA in four starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-3), CJ Cron (2-3, 2B, HR, RBI), Brandon Lowe (1-3, HR, RBI), Tommy Pham (2-4, 3B, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part four — a series preview

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Tampa Bay completed an impressive 6-2 run in three consecutive series against division leaders, sweeping Boston at home, splitting a pair in Atlanta, and taking two of three in Cleveland. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to cap what has been a successful road trip with a few more wins when they start a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night. Tampa Bay prevailed against Cleveland on Sunday, 6-4, taking two of three from the top team in the AL Central. Toronto took two of three on the road from the Marlins in Miami, winning the rubber game 6-1 Sunday afternoon.

The Rays took two of three in the last series against the Jays, which was in Toronto from August 10-12, and are 7-2 this season overall.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

With the win Sunday, the Rays improved to 73-63, moving 10 games over .500 for the first time since June 2015 — Kevin Cash’s first season — and this late in a season since 2013, the last time they made the playoffs.

They have also stayed within sight of the final Wildcard spot, starting the series with Toronto eight games back of the Athletics, who they will face September 14-16 at Tropicana Field.

It’s one of those things where everybody in this clubhouse feels like we have a chance to be in the race and that we’re not out of it yet. So, we’re definitely going for it. And we’re having a lot of fun doing it, Ryan Yarbrough said after the series finale on Sunday.

This should make for a compelling week of baseball as Oakland plays host to the Yankees, who then will face the Mariners, who are also in the Rays’ way. Dare I say let’s go Yankees?

I digress.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Blue Jays aren’t an awful team offensively speaking, although the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired — ranking 12 out of 15 in the American League, and 27 out of 30 overall. Toronto’s hurlers have actually been worse in the month of August, combining for a 5.64 ERA/4.94 FIP/.287 BAA line. Meanwhile, the Rays offense has not hit a lot of homers, although CJ Cron and company have been mightily productive, with the team averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 14 days.

As they have done all season, it will be incumbent upon the Rays to limit the long-ball, Toronto’s main facet of run production. Also, expect Tampa Bay to put the ball in play, then run all over Russell Martin and Luke Maile.

Pitching Probables

With the exception of Tyler Glasnow (1-4, 3.95 ERA), who is slated to pitch in the finale on Wednesday, Kevin Cash has not set the openers/starters for the first and second games of the series. Even so, Ryne Stanek (2-3, 2.77 ERA) will likely open the game on Monday, while Yonny Chirinos (2-5, 4.05 ERA) should see the most mound time. Jalen Beeks (4-1, 6.08 ERA) will, presumably, pitch the bulk of the innings on Tuesday. John Gibbons will counter with Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.27 ERA), Sam Gaviglio (2-7, 5.16), and Ryan Borucki (3-3, 4.52 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek worked around a hit with one strikeout in a scoreless inning of work Tuesday as the opener in Atlanta. The right-hander threw seven of 11 pitches for strikes as he faced the minimum three batters in his inning of work, thanks to a caught stealing of Ender Inciarte.

Yonny Chirinos was hit hard following Stanek, tossing five innings and allowing five runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks. He struck out three in the 81-pitch outing (51 strikes, 63% strike rate, 17/25 first-pitch strikes). Chirinos wasn’t particularly sharp and was on track to take the loss after departing with the Rays trailing 5-4, but Tampa Bay ended up tying the game in the eighth inning to take the right-hander off the hook.

Marcus Stroman threw a bullpen session Saturday and should get the start Monday. Stroman, who landed on the disabled list August 19 with a nagging blister issue, has been dealing with the affliction for much of the season which helps explain his 5.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in what amounts to the worst season of his big league career. Stroman spun off one of Toronto’s two wins against the Tampa Bay this season on August 12, limiting the Rays to one run on five hits and a walk. He struck out two. Even So, he is 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-2, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (1-2), CJ Cron (3-8), Matt Duffy (2-7, 2B, 2 BB), Carlos Gomez (2-2, HR, 3 RBI), Joey Wendle (1-2) 

Jalen Beeks got the win Wednesday, pitching three shutout — and rain-shortened — innings with two strikeouts while allowing four hits and three walks against Atlanta. An hour and six-minute rain delay limited his outing to just three innings and 49 pitches (26 strikes, 53% strike rate, 9/15 first-pitch strikes) — both of which were season-low totals since joining Tampa Bay — although it was still enough to pick up the win for a third straight outing. The rookie southpaw has a 2.63 ERA with a 2/1 K/BB in 27-1/3 innings since the start of August.

Sam Gaviglio allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two across 5-2/3 innings on Monday against Baltimore. Gaviglio sailed through the front five scoreless innings before the wheels fell off in the sixth. He gave up a run on a fielder’s choice, which was followed by a three-run blast to cap off the four-run frame. Meanwhile, Toronto’s offense was unable to muster a single run, so the right-hander was hit with his seventh loss of the season. Gaviglio owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 92 punch-outs over 100-1/3 innings. He is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in three career starts against the Rays, including 0-2 in two starts this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3, RBI, BB), Jake Bauers (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Ji-Man Choi (1-2, 2B), CJ Cron (1-4), Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Mallex Smith (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (3-4, 2B, 2 RBI)

Tyler Glasnow was excellent on Friday, throwing seven innings of one-run ball while allowing two hits (including a homer) and one walk on an efficient 76 pitches (56 strikes, 74% strike rate, 19/24 first-pitch strikes). He struck out six.

Glasnow pounded the top of the zone with his upper 90’s four-seam fastball before working over the edges of the plate. Then, he would drop in a low-80s curveball, with 7-to-8 inches of depth, over the heart of the plate, resulting in a good number of taken strikes. On occasion he would drop in a mid-80s slider, that fell right off the table and onto home plate, resulting in a 16.7% SwStr rate. The depth he got on his offspeed stuff was unreal, thanks in part to his release point which mimicked that of his four-seamer.

Ryan Borucki coughed up five runs on eight hits across 4-2/3 innings while striking out two. The rookie was staked to an early four-run lead, yet Baltimore quickly stormed back while an Adam Jones grand slam in the fifth inning helped chase Borucki from the game. He has relied primarily on a heavy sinking 92 mph four-seam fastball and a firm 84 mph changeup with a ton of backspin, while also mixing in a 79 mph slider with exceptional depth and short glove-side cutting movement.

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith, who was seen in uniform in the background of a Willy Adames Instagram story yesterday, should be reinstated from the 10-day DL on Monday.

— The Rays made a surprise roster move on Sunday, promoting INF/OF Andrew Velazquez from Triple-A Durham to provide depth at several positions. The move was made in part because CF Kevin Kiermaier remains sidelined due to a sore back and Velazquez can play centerfield.

To make room on the 40-man roster for Velasquez, the Rays put injured RHP Jose Mujica on the big-league roster and then on the 60-day DL.

So why Velazquez over Austin Meadows, the prospect acquired from the Pirates who is tearing it up at Durham? Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote Sunday:

Meadows hasn’t played since Wednesday when he was hit on the left hand in the at-bat after his third homer of the game.

And why Velazquez over Kean Wong, who also plays infield and outfield and is having a great year? Because Velazquez is better and has more experience in center, can play short which Wong doesn’t, is a faster runner which makes him a potential pinch-runner, and is a switch-hitter while Wong is a lefty, of which the Rays have plenty.