Rays Stadium Saga: Another Day, Another Arbitrary Date

Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg has long said the team could not be financially viable in Tropicana Field but the contract with the city prevented any stadium search from happening legally.
Another day, another arbitrary date in the Stadium Saga.

St. Petersburg mayor Rick Kriseman and Rays’ President Brian Auld met today to discuss the inner workings of the Stadium Saga, presumably (read: probably officially) for the first time since the doomed December 18th vote on the memorandum of understanding between the City of St. Pete and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Mayor Kriseman released a statement following the hour-long meeting,

The Rays have always been collaborative partners in this process and this morning was a continuation of those good faith discussions.

The Mayor and Mr. Auld discussed the development rights issue and the spirit of the discussion, as it has always been, was positive. We look forward to having an agreement that Council can approve before Opening Day.

According to the Tampa Bay Times, the discussion centered on the Rays’ right to a 50-50 split of development rights for the Tropicana site under the current contract with the city. It should be noted, that issue contributed to the above mentioned 3-5 city council vote in December.

However, Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium) was quick to note in his synopsis of the meeting, that the Rays probably aren’t going budge on the low payouts to St. Pete, which was a sticking point for several of the council members.

If anything, progress has been made between the city and the Rays — a far cry from Stu Sternberg’s threat to sell the team to a new ownership group if the franchise is unable to move forward. Still, one has to wonder if both parties are setting themselves up for failure by setting yet another arbitrary date of Opening Day?

Noteworthiness

An interesting piece was recently penned by Mike Lortz of Tampa Bay Baseball Market. Lortz wrote in the article,

There are many reasons why the Rays struggle with attendance. Many fans and residents point to the condition of the stadium, the demographics, and lack of mass transit as reason for not going. But one of the biggest and least-discussed reasons is that few people actually live near Tropicana Field. According to Maury Brown’s 2011 research on population, the Rays are dead last in population with a 30-mile radius of their ballpark.

Lortz, by way Brown’s population study, compared the Trop’s 30 minute population with that of other potential cities like Raleigh, Nashville, Las Vegas, and Portland, ultimately concluding that the Rays,

…will continue to struggle with attendance as long as they have less than 1 million fans living within 30 minutes of Tropicana Field. This is one of clearest reasons for a move to downtown Tampa, where the Tampa Bay Lightning see weekday/weekend attendance differences of approximately 5%. A move to the center of their market could vastly increase the pool of fans within 30 minutes of a Rays game.

While the numbers don’t lie, Lortz’s findings should be taken with a grain of salt — after all, he based his findings on population figures that are at least four years old (depending on when the initial population study was conducted). What he neglected to mention, the population of St. Petersburg increased from 244,769 in 2010 to 249,704 in 2014. What’s more, the immediate population of downtown St. Petersburg is projected to increase by at least 2,045 (source: Tampa Bay Times), thanks to the current housing boom in-and-around that area.

I’ll concede the point, a citywide population increase of 5,000 people  — 7,000+ when you include the projected population growth in downtown — may not sound like a lot, nor might it be enough to skew Lortz’s findings. Yet there isn’t any evidence that he took those numbers into consideration, nor is there evidence that he combined them with population figures from any of the other presumed regional sites on both sides of the bay. Lortz instead found favor in one potential area which is DOA, thanks to Jeff Vinik.

In the end Lortz not only furthered the same tired argument, he all but negated the idea that a regional search would be in the best interest of the Rays. Call me crazy, but the use of inaccurate and/or out of date information (among other things) is indefensible when trying to make a cogent argument. This issue demands more than a handful of people with their own agendas.

Hot-Stove: Rays Sign Reliever Ronald Belisario to Minor League Deal; Close to Signing Alexi Casilla

Ronald Belasario pitching against the Blue Jays in 2014.
Ronald Belisario pitching for the ChiSox, and against the Blue Jays, in 2014.

Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Tampa Bay Rays have signed free agent reliever Ronald Belisario to a minor league deal, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Belisario, previously with the Dodgers and White Sox, looks to have good chance to win one of two open spots in the Rays bullpen. He was reported to have been close to a deal with the Blue Jays, yet the Rays had been talking to him for a while.

The bespectacled (begoggled?) Belisario spent time at closer last season despite a bloated ERA. The RHP is a sinker-slider pitcher, though Belisario’s sinker is by far his best pitch. To put things into perspective, his sinker is a well-above-average offering that sits in the mid-90s, misses bats, and forces ground balls. His slider, however, rates closer to below-average.

While he’s blessed with a power arm, Belisario lacks the command of a knockout secondary offering required by late-inning relievers. Belisario has also struggled in the past against left-handed batters. I’d imagine he’d enter Spring Training as a low-leverage (or middle-relief) reliever, or as a right-handed ground-ball specialist.

It’s also worth mentioning, Belisario has an additional year of team control remaining, and it wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibility to see a 2016 return if he’s effective.

Tampa Bay is likely to also sign INF Alexi Casilla. Casilla, previously with the Twins and Orioles, would join the field for middle infield spot on Spring Training, though the Rays could still end up acquiring a starting SS.

We’ll have more on this in time.

Noteworthiness

Here’s a handy little guide of all the Spring Training related dates, courtesy of Major League Baseball PR. Just 21 more days Tampa Bay Rays fans!
Here’s a handy little guide of all the Spring Training related dates, courtesy of Major League Baseball PR. Just 21 more days Tampa Bay Rays fans!

PECOTA Projects the Rays to Lead the AL East in 2015

(Photo courtesy of David Richard/USA Today Sports)
(Photo courtesy of David Richard/USA Today Sports)

A little less than a week after we wrote about Steamer’s 2015 projections for the Tampa Bay Rays, Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the upcoming season. While many saw Matt Silverman’s off-season moves as detrimental to the organization, in the present tense, the PECOTA projections are surprising to many; finding the Rays leading the AL East, alongside the Boston Red Sox — both of whom are projected a mean average of 86 wins. While it may not be enough to silence the doomsayers at the moment, the PECOTA projections offer a fairly optimistic glimmer of hope for Rays fans.

How will the Rays win the East? Here are a few highlights from Baseball Prospectus*:

PECOTA 2015 AL East projections. (Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus)
2015 AL East PECOTA projections. (Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays 2015. That is, they’re projected to be dominant thanks to pitching and defense. Their projected 638 runs allowed is second best in the American league (just behind Seattle) for fewest runs given up, while the Nate Silver curated system projects Tampa Bay to score 681 runs — 15 more than Steamer’s projected run total of 666. The projected combined .250 BA/.320 OBP/.387 SLG slash line is similar to the .247 BA/.323 OBP/.386 line suggested by Steamer. Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .268 is significantly higher than both the projected combined batting average, and the team’s 2014 combined batting average.

Of course any offensive prowess will be dependent upon Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings, and newcomers Asdrubal Cabrera and Steven Souza.

Souza, the teams newest outfielder (and replacement for Wil Myers), has the third highest projection with a .261 BA/.336 OBP/.458 SLG slash line — vastly better than the numbers projected by Steamer. Incidentally, PECOTA’s .254 BA/.319OBP/.435SLG projection for Myers ranks lower than that of his replacement. As for Ben Zobrist’s heir apparent Nick Franklin, he projects to post a fairly productive season, while PECOTA posits he’ll spend more time at second base than either Cabrera or Forsythe.

In a recent piece for DRaysBay, friend of the blog Ian Malinowski brought up a few points to consider when talking about the expected David DeJesus/John Jaso DH platoon,

Probably incorrectly, PECOTA predicts David DeJesus to receive the majority of plate appearances in left field, while Souza receives the majority at designated hitter. It slots John Jaso in as the third option at DH (receiving fewer PAs than both Souza and DDJ). Given DeJesus’s advancing age and declining range, it’s likely that Souza will play in the field more often than not. This should improve the team’s defense while opening up the spot at DH for Jaso (a better hitter than DeJesus). This simple shuffle could make the real Rays better than their PECOTA projection.

Unfortunately we weren’t given a good indication of how many runs the pitching staff could relinquish in 2015 by way of Steamer. However, with PECOTA, we find Alex Cobb and company giving up 638 runs — 110 fewer than the Red Sox.

PECOTA projects great performances from Cobb and Drew Smyly, and better than average performances from Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. Nate Karns and Burch Smith are also projected to positively contribute toward the Rays’ predicted league leading win/loss record. If runs allowed totals speak to anything, the rotation stands in stark contrast to the expectations of all of the teams in the AL East, most notably Boston.

To that end, Malinowski also noted,

The current PECOTA projection only is based on only 160 innings pitched by a productive Drew Smyly, and only 40 innings pitched by a productive Matt Moore. It’s easy to envision a world where both of those guys eclipse those totals, making the Rays run prevention better than the already high expectations.

There is one last category (in the chart above) that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to the Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 28.3 runs above average — the second best in baseball, behind only the Royals. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays out-rank their closest competitor (Baltimore) by 14.2 runs, and Toronto by 36.4. The seeming downgrade in defense — thanks to the losses of Zobrist and Yunel Escobar — appear to have little-to-no effect on things.

As I wrote in a previous piece, projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) put things in perspective,

…But they can never be perfect. There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

It goes without saying, the Rays could end the season playing relevant ball in October, or reconfiguring the roster once more.

Despite the high expectations levied by Steamer and now PECOTA, it’s interesting that sites like Bovada don’t reflect the same — the current odds of winning the World Series stand at 12/1 for Boston and 66/1 for the Rays. Then again, the Tampa Bay seems to rise to the occasion when it is the underdog. With everything that’s gone on over the past few months, it would be safe to call the Rays the underdog. In the end it’s nice to hear people, other than Silverman, champion the Rays. Perhaps the Rays front office is smarter than the Keith Law’s or Jon Heyman’s give them credit for.

*A full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site with a paid subscription.

Noteworthiness

  • In evaluating the off-season’s biggest winners and losers, Jon Heyman (CBS Sports) not only called the Rays management the biggest “losers,” but went on to say owner Stu Sternberg should sell team.

Not only did they lose beloved manager Maddon, resourceful GM Andrew Friedman, ultra versatile infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist and young power-hitting Myers, they continued to make no progress in their efforts to get out of the The Trop, one of the two worst baseball stadiums still extant. What’s more, at a St. Petersburg city hearing local politicos ripped some Rays decision makers, suggesting perceived haughtiness didn’t help their cause while rejecting the team’s request just to look around elsewhere in Tampa/St. Pete. The other sports franchises in Tampa are locally owned. Maybe it’s time for the Rays to follow suit.

All the News Fit to Print on a Slow News Day; Links For Finks

Throwback Tuesday, to when I took this photo last season. (Photo courtesy of Schmitty/X-Rays Spex)
Throwback Tuesday, to when I took this photo last season. (Photo courtesy of Schmitty/X-Rays Spex)

As the saying goes, all is quiet on the western front, yet I’m not content to sit back and watch the world pass by. That said, here’s another installment of links for finks.

  • According to Marc Topkin, the Rays are still likely to add a middle infielder and outfielder David DeJesus is still likely to be traded. DeJesus is owed $5M in 2015 with a $1M buyout on a 2016 option, which makes him a reasonably priced target but also does not leave him with a ton of trade value. Per Steamer, DeJesus is projected to be a 0.7 WAR player, boasting $4.9M surplus value.
  • The most telling line from Topkin’s article (linked above) gave a little perspective on why the Rays were eager to deal Yunel Escobar, even if they took a loss of $3.7M — $4.2M in surplus value. Topkin wrote, “…The Rays did him (Kevin Cash) the favors of removing the headache of managing Escobar and the hassles of an overcrowded outfield.”
  • Loic Oumier (DRaysBay) coincidentally wondered if the Rays might be looking for some improvement at second base, in a market filled with possibilities. He went on to namedrop a few players, like Rickie Weeks, Starlin Castro and Danny Espinosa, who would be in the Rays wheelhouse if a deal in some capacity was to be made.
  • Jeff Todd (MLB Trade Rumors) listed both SS Evereth Cabrera and 2B Rickie Weeks as intriguing options left on the market. Knowing the Rays are looking for another middle infielder, yet MLB ready trade pieces on the 40-man roster are few and far in between, perhaps either would fit the bill. Of Cabrera and Weeks, Todd writes,

Cabrera shortstop, 28 – Were it not for his off-field issues, it seems likely the Padres would have tendered the former starting shortstop and given him a chance to regain his 2013 form. The year before last, Cabrera registered a 114 wRC+ while swiping 37 bags (down from 44 in the season prior) and playing the best-rated defense of his career. That was a 3.1 fWAR player, even in a season cut short due to suspension. The 2014 version of Cabrera was not, even when on the field instead of nursing an injury. There are issues aplenty here, but his abilities stand out in a market that hurt for middle infield talent from the start. And it does not hurt that he comes with a year of arb control remaining.

Weeks second base, 32 – Once one of the game’s better keystone options, Weeks has stumbled backward in all areas of the game since 2012. But last year was a bit different; while his defensive metrics continued to lag behind his earlier work, Weeks did put up a .274/.357/.452 slash in 286 plate appearances that brought to mind better days. True, Weeks inflicted much of his damage against lefties, with his solid line against right-handers propped up by a .420 BABIP. But given his track record, a revived spurt of production at least raises the possibility of a late-career renaissance.

  • New baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has been in office a little more than a whole day, and he’s already made some interesting waves. In an interview with ESPN, Manfred mentioned that examining the pace of the game is first on his list of priorities. Second on his list of priorities, finding ways to “inject additional offense into the game.” You might be asking, how? Manfred is open to pursuing the elimination of defensive shifts, which he says give the defensive team a competitive advantage. It’s not often that I wholly agree with anyone from ESPN, however Buster Olney allowed my thoughts to be more eloquently expressed, “Pushing for rules to restrict defensive positioning would be as absurd and antithetical to the game as informing pitchers…” The writers at Bless You Boys wonder why stop there? After all, Manfred can do much more to increase offense, like limiting the size of gloves, or making each run worth two.
  • Former (Devil) Ray Wade Boggs’ beer consumption has become a thing of legend worthy of Bill Brasky. The legend goes, Boggs once drank 64 beers on a cross-country team flight. Hell, even actor Charlie Day got in on the action, claiming during the filming of a new episode of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia, Boggs pulled him aside and said he actually drank 107 beers in one day— including before the flight and after. David Laurila (FanGraphs) shed more light on things Sunday, writing,

In 2001, (Former Ray Brian) Rose was “all fired up” when he was claimed off waivers by the Devil Rays. “Not because I was going to Tampa,” explained Rose, “but because Wade Boggs was a coach there. He was my idol growing up.”

Rose soon learned that Boggs could put away cold ones like nobody else.

“I was sitting next to him on a plane and a flight attendant came by and gave him a case of beer,” said Rose. “He slid it under the seat and I was like, ‘What’s up with that? We only have an hour flight.’ He said, ‘That’s mine.’

“The whole flight, we were just shooting the shit, and he went one beer after the other. I said to him, ‘I’m impressed with the way you hit, but I’m more impressed right now.’ He goes, ‘Yeah, beer doesn’t affect me. I don’t get drunk unless I’ve had at least a case and a half.’ I don’t think he even went to the bathroom.”

[youtube_sc url=”http://youtu.be/M3lpKvr1GCs”]

  • Rejoice everyone, baseball season is nigh!

Projecting the Rays Offense in 2015 By Way of Steamer

evan+longoria
This guy is going to have to step it up in 2015.

A lot has been made of the Tampa Bay Rays off-season. And with just over a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to camp, a lingering question begs to be answered: After a lackluster 2014 in the box, what does the 2015 season hold for the Rays? With the help of Steamer (by way of FanGraphs), we’ll attempt to answer that question by looking at the Rays’ projected offensive numbers.

First, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Despite the cellar rankings across the board, Tampa Bay moved a good number of players who had been previously depended upon. In fact, the Rays currently boast only six position players who appeared on the 2014 Opening Day roster — David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, James Loney, and Logan Forsythe. Rumors are also swirling, the Rays might be trying to part ways DeJesus. Let’s quickly review the roster moves which dominated the last few months.

In November Jeremy Hellickson was dealt to Arizona, while Cesar Ramos was traded to Anaheim, and Joel Peralta found a new home with the Dodgers. Then in December both Wil Myers and Ryan Hanigan were part of a three team trade with the Padres and Nationals, Sean Rodriguez was DFA’d and subsequently traded to Pittsburgh, Matt Joyce joined Ramos on the West Coast, and Cole Figueroa, Jerry Sands and Jose Molina were designated for assignment and ultimately released. Finally, Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar were traded to Oakland, in what could be described as a contentious deal.

Tampa Bay received 16 players (both big league ready and prospects) in return: Justin Williams, Andrew Velazquez, Jose Dominguez, Greg Harris, Mark Sappington, Jake Bauers, Burch Smith, Rene Rivera, Steven Souza, Travis Ott, Buddy Borden, Kevin Jepsen, John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, Boog Powell, and Ernesto Frieri. Lest we forget that Tampa Bay also hired a new manager, and shifted the coaching staff.

It goes without saying, Matt Silverman has been very busy. All told, the team cut payroll by about $10M and escaped $12.5M of future commitments. One still wonders, though, is the team is any better?

Rays 2014 Offensive Numbers.
Rays 2014 offensive numbers, courtesy of ESPN.
Rays Offensive Rank Compared to MLB.
Rays 2014 offensive rank compared to MLB, courtesy of ESPN.

If perception is everything, the 2014 Rays were perceived as a team with a fizzling offense. While they could get runners on, they couldn’t convert them into runs. The overall statistics — and rankings — speak to that. Tampa Bay ranked below the American League average in runs scored (R), runs batted in (RBI), home runs (HR), batting average (BA), slugging (SLG), and on base percentage plus SLG (OPS). In fact, the only category the Rays outperformed league average was OBP. What’s more, the team was in the bottom third in baseball in RBI, homers,  SLG, and OPS. That, as our design guru Adam would put it, is “no bueno.”

Things have got to get better, right? In an ideal world, taking into consideration all of the off-season roster changes, the Rays are projected to be a better team in 2015. Let’s delve into those projections.

Rays offensive projections, courtesy of Steamer.
Rays offensive projections, courtesy of Steamer. (Note: The projections in red are courtesy of MILB.com)
Rays offensive projections, courtesy of Steamer. (Note: The projections in red are courtesy of MILB.com)
Rays offensive projections, courtesy of Steamer. (Note: The projections in red are courtesy of MILB.com)

Utilizing a couple of readily available projection sites, namely Steamer (by way of FanGraphs), and MILB.com for the rookies who may appear on the Opening Day roster (Steven Souza, Nick Franklin, Tim Beckham, Curt Casali, and Hak-Ju Lee), I found something intriguing. While the Rays aren’t projected to be an offensive juggernaut in 2015, if the projections bear true — both offensive and pitching — the Rays could be a 90+ win team in 2015.

Here’s how I did the math. First, I took into consideration the players who should make the Opening Day roster:

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Souza
  3. John Jaso
  4. James Loney
  5. Desmond Jennings
  6. Brandon Guyer
  7. Asdrubal Cabrera
  8. David DeJesus (assuming he is not traded)
  9. Franklin, Kevin Kiermaier
  10. Logan Forsythe
  11. Rene Rivera
  12. Casali
  13. Beckham
  14. Lee

Next I tallied the totals, and compared them to the offensive totals of the previous season (see the table below). While Steamer didn’t offer complete projections for Souza, Franklin, Casali, Beckham and Lee, I pilfered MILB.com‘s projections and attempted to fill in some gaps. It shouldn’t be assumed that Souza, Franklin, Beckham or Lee will have 600 major league at-bats. However, it would reasonable to assume they would have more at-bats than Steamer projected.

As it relates to BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+ and WAR, the numbers didn’t differentiate too much from each projection site. The big difference came in at-bats and plate appearances, hits, and runs batted in. From there I low-balled things, in that each additional HR hit by an asterisked player would count as a solo shot only. Why? It’s next to impossible to predict the situation in which he may hit a projected homer. Each homer would count for one run and one RBI. Because of it, the Rays projected total number of runs jumps from 666 to 675, and runs batted in from 608 to 617 — 63 more runs, and 31 more runs batted in than in 2014.

Furthermore, excepting the decreases in the total number of projected hits and at-bats, 2015 should find a more productive Rays in the categories that count.

Rays 2014 offensive production and 2015 offensive projections.
Rays 2014 offensive production and 2015 offensive projections.

It should be noted, Kansas City scored 651 runs last season and went to the World Series. Two other playoff contenders — St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants — fell within the Goldie Locks zone of 619 runs scored, and the number of runs the Rays are projected to score in forthcoming season. One thing held in common, all have an above average to excellent pitching staff. If Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is solid once again, and if the Rays can drive in more than 619 runs (the total St. Louis scored last season) it would not be a stretch to imagine them postseason bound.

Then again, projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) put things in perspective,

…But they can never be perfect. There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The same could be said for individualized player projections. The random variance Paine spoke of could bolster the numbers, or — in the case of the 2014 Rays — end the season on a sour note. What is glaringly obvious, the players who are projected to be the big run producers — Longo, Souza, Jennings and Cabrera — need to be. Gone is any buffer Joyce, Rodriguez, Myers and Zobrist may have provided. Adding to the challenge, a new manager whose style the team has to feel out before it can be expected to play relevant baseball in September and October. A friend of mine put it best the other night, calling the Rays an 81 game winner in 2015. Yet he also opined, if the team can put together some magic…capture some lightning in a bottle, those 81 wins could be 90-plus.

We’ll be publishing a piece on the pitching projections shortly. I will also either update this piece, or put together an accompanying piece when ZiPS and OLIVER release their projections