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Tampa Bay Rays Spring Training, day four

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Daniel Robertson (pictured), Brandon Lowe, and Kevin Kiermaier arrived at camp on Thursday and Friday (respectively). (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Daniel Robertson, Brandon Lowe, and Kevin Kiermaier arrived in Tampa Bay Rays camp on Thursday and Friday (respectively), as 61 of 66 players are now present. Still to arrive are Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Lucius Fox, Tommy Pham, and Jesus Sanchez.

Meanwhile, Ryne Stanek, Austin Pruitt, Oliver Drake, and Ian Gibaut threw their regularly scheduled bullpen sessions on the fourth day of Spring Training.

Kiermaier, who entered camp even more in shape than usual, was eager to get on the field.

Last year, we look at it, it was a broken year for KK in the fact that it’s not easy to come out of spring training, get banged up, miss time, try to re-start everything. It was like he was playing catchup, swimming uphill the entire time.

— Rays manager Kevin Cash

Last season, Kiermaier tore a right thumb ligament in what was called freak injury — his third in as many years

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, the challenge for the team is keeping him there.

We’re a different team when KK is on the field. When he’s not, we miss him. Obviously, our defense is different. Our offense, when he’s going right, he’s got the ability to really ignite us.

— Kevin Cash

Robertson arrived yesterday but spoke with the media this morning. The utility player was one of the more consistent position players last season before he missed the final two months of 2018 with a thumb injury.

Before his injury, Robertson was arguably Tampa Bay’s most consistent position player last year. The infielder reportedly had no issues or limitations during the offseason and is excited to get back on the field.

Obviously the injury was a bummer but I got a solid foundation and feel I’m even more equipped for this year. Just got to stay healthy.

— Daniel Robertson

Cash will look at Lowe and Ji-Man Choi, both southpaw swingers, to see who will pair best with Yandy Diaz at first base. The Rays skipper expects the infielder/outfielder to be a quick study based on the athleticism he exhibited last season.

We’ve got to give him a little bit of time to work on the little nuances, the footwork and stuff like that.

— Kevin Cash

Because of it, Lowe prepared to play on the right side of the infield (first and second base) as well as both corner outfield spots. He ordered his own first baseman glove, sought advice from Justin Smoak — who shares the same representation — and studied the fundamentals of playing at first.

Lowe, who last played first base in youth baseball, welcomed the opportunity to expand on his expertise.

If it gets me on the field and it gets me at-bats, I’m all for it.

— Brandon Lowe

Chaz Roe, who had been delayed after suffering through a tweaked back, played catch and is expected to start throwing with the other pitchers soon.

No concern whatsoever.


— Kevin Cash

PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays should contend in 2019

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SS Willy Adames is projected to regress according to the 2019 PECOTA projections.

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2019 season. The Rays have been active this offseason, adding a bevy of new players to the fold, such as Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, and Charlie Morton. Because of the acquisitions, PECOTA forecasts Tampa Bay as the fifth best team in the American League, and the third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 86 wins against 76 losses. Should the Rays end the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Here are a few highlights, as the full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

Projected 2019 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 710 runs are fewer than they plated in 2018, yet three runs better than the Royals, who are projected to end the upcoming season 20 games under .500. The projected .246 BA/.319 OBP/.399 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .258 BA/.333 OBP/.406 SLG line collected by the team last season.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fourth fewest runs in the American League at 661 ― 25 fewer than the reigning World Series champions, and one more than the Yankees, Tampa Bay’s closest competitor in that category.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Matt Duffy spending the most time at third base, with Joey Wendle getting the majority of reps at second base, Yandy Diaz at first, and Willy Adames at shortstop. Ji-Man Choi could be the primary designated hitter (45% of the time) with Daniel Robertson also slated to see a significant amount of time at the position as well as all over the infield.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Mike Zunino will get the majority of playing time over Michael Perez (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Kevin Kiermaier is projected to post the highest position player WARp (2.9) in center, and could slash a .252 BA/.322 OBP/.414 SLG line with 14 home runs and 68 runs across 516 plate appearances. His projected WARp, however, is down from a projected 4.0 a season ago.
  • The ever consistent Matt Duffy is projected to be the best hitter on the team, just ahead of Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia, who looks to bounce back from a lackluster 2018 campaign.
  • Tommy Pham and Mike Zunino are projected to combine for 39 homers.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Blake Snell (165 IP, 3.3 WARp), Charlie Morton (148 IP, 2.5 WARp), Tyler Glasnow (130 IP, 2.1 WARp), with a casting call of “openers” ahead of Ryan Yarbrough (118 IP, 0.6 WARp), Jacon Faria (71 IP, 0.2 WARp), and Jalen Beeks (70 IP, 0.8 WARp) among others.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Jose Alvarado (closer), Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo (setup), Oliver Drake, Adam Kolarek, Hunter Wood, Emilio Pagan, Austin Pruitt, Ian Gibaut, Andrew Moore, and Colin Poche — in some variation of the Durham Taxi — as middle-relief.

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 20 runs above average — third best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (27.6 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -28.2 FRAA — worst in the American League.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays ended last season with 90 wins and 72 losses. Their projected 86 win season — 92 or 80, thanks to a six-game margin of error — has got to make us incredibly optimistic for a postseason run.

Tropicana Field to go cashless, Rays host optional workout, and Noteworthiness

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Tropicana Field is set to become the first cashless sports facility in North America.

Following news that the Tampa Bay Rays will reduce the seating capacity of Tropicana Field in 2019, the team announced the stadium will become the first cashless sports facility in North America.

According to the press release below, Tropicana Field’s concessions, team stores, box office, and all other points–of–sale will operate cash–free in 2019:

The Tampa Bay Rays announced today that, in collaboration with hospitality partner Levy and analytics and emerging tech firm E15, Tropicana Field will become the first cash–free sports venue in North America.

Tropicana Field’s concessions, team stores, box office, and all other points–of–sale will operate cash–free in 2019. The move follows extensive pilot testing engineered and led by E15 at Tropicana Field and venues nationwide to measure the effects of cash–free transactions. These tests found that transitioning to cash–free environments results in an average transaction time of up to half that of traditional environments that accept cash, resulting in faster moving lines and increased fan satisfaction.

Forms of payment accepted at concession stands and retail stores inside the ballpark will include major credit cards, Rays gift cards, NFC mobile payments such as Apple Pay and Samsung Pay, and Season Ticket Holder Rays Cards. For fans without electronic forms of payment, cash can be exchanged for gift cards in any amount at all retail locations and in $10 or $20 increments through roaming gift card vendors. Tropicana Field’s parking operations will also be cash–free, as they were for the 2018 season.

“We have made significant investments each year to improve the ballpark experience for fans, including an overhaul of our approach to food and beverage since the beginning of our partnership with Levy,” said Rays Vice President of Strategy & Development William Walsh. “This change will increase speed of service and reduce lines throughout the ballpark.”

“Throughout our testing last season at Tropicana Field, we saw thatfans quickly adapted to cash–free environments and loved the resulting benefits to the game–day experience,” said Jaime Faulkner, CEO of E15. “By offering fans a variety of forms of electronic payment, coupled with the ability to exchange cash for gift cards, we can ensure that fans are having frictionless experiences and getting back to enjoy the game.”

Fan Fest on February 9 will be the first cash–free event at Tropicana Field in 2019. A free event, fans are invited to shop at the Rays Baseball Foundation’s Yard Sale, as well as the Rays Republic Team Store and auxiliary shops during Fan Fest. Several concession stands will also be open and will accept digital payments.

Concerned fans have been quick to push back on the new policy. And while the team intends to create a frictionless experience that allows fans to get back the game, the decision ignores how restrictive this can be for low-income households that do not have access to credit cards or are not in a position to load cards with cash they won’t get back later.

Or, in the words of John Romano (Tampa Bay Times), “Going cashless at Tropicana Field carries the unmistakable whiff of arrogance.”

It’s a bold idea, and the Rays say plenty of research indicates it will lead to a better, more streamlined fan experience at the stadium. That may be true in theory. And it may be the wave of the future.

But it ignores the reality that a lot of people, for whatever reason, prefer to use cash. Even worse, this unilateral decision carries an unmistakable whiff of arrogance.

We know what’s best for you.

Essentially, that’s what the Rays are saying. And that’s a horrible message to send when you’re in the business of trying to attract more customers. Especially when you’re the worst in the league at that skill.

Rays Winter Meetings recap, day one: Cash presser, trade rumors

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Rays manager Kevin Cash addressed the media on the first official day of the 2018 Winter Meetings, in Las Vegas.

Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash addressed the media on a variety of subjects Monday, the first official day of the Winter Meetings.

Here are some highlights from the media session:

The first six questions, unsurprisingly, involved the opener strategy, which the Rays pioneered in 2018. Cash reiterated that the strategy will again be utilized in 2019, and its usage will adjust based on who he has at his disposal.

Part of the reason Cash is sticking with the opener plan is that it worked on the field, and helped Tampa Bay notch its first winning season since 2013. It also helped acclimate some of the younger hurlers to the big leagues.

We watched guys develop and it allowed them an easier path to develop at the big league level which we all know is very challenging, Cash said. When you first introduce your career to the big leagues for us to be able to have young pitchers and put them in different roles, maybe be protective of them a little bit more than that traditional starter, we really saw the benefits of that.

Cash indicated his preference would be to have three starters and two openers, which, ideally, would find the team adding a veteran this off-season — someone who “can really log some innings,” said Cash.

(The opener strategy) puts a lot of pressure on Blake (Snell), It puts pressure on Tyler (Glasnow), their workload. We don’t want those guys to feel that they’ve got to do more than what they’re capable of. And I know Blake (had a) tremendous year. I don’t want him going into a game thinking I’ve got to pitch seven, eight innings so tomorrow’s day works out well.

On the subject of pitching, Cash spoke about Brent Honeywell’s rehab, which is progressing. Even though Honeywell would like to be ready to go by the end of Spring Training, the skipper said a late-May, early-June return to game action would be more reasonable. Ultimately they’ll wait until Honeywell is 100% and be smart about his rehab.

We know how special Brent is, and how valuable and what we view in our organization. But if we’re going to do Brent right, we have to let him go through the rehab process, not rush him. Knowing his personality, he’s going to want to make a club out of spring training. That’s not going to happen. We’ve got to do it right. Our medical staff is second to none. And I know Brent understands that. But he’s a motivated player, and he wants to be a part of something that we all view as pretty special right now.

We’ll do everything we can to calm him down, let him go through the process to make sure he’s a hundred percent healthy and get him through his rehabs and get him to affiliate, get some innings, and hopefully, he is helping us.

What we’ve talked about is some time May, June. But that’s not set in stone. We adjusted really well given the player. We have a bunch of players coming back from Tommy John and they all have different — they all have some good weeks to the rehab and they all have some slowdown weeks. Everybody is different.

Cash was asked about what Jake Bauers needs to do to make the next step after his bout with late-season struggles. Cash countered, saying that Bauers has always dealt with some struggles during his initial promotions, but always rebounded.

You know, I think Jake, of all of our young players that came up, Jake was as talked about as anybody, rightfully so. I think just experience and maturity, he was the youngest guy in the league. He’s been the youngest at every level he’s performed at. And he figured it out. He’s always struggled and started to stabilize himself a little bit and then he gets hot and he puts together some pretty good numbers offensively.

I think that’s what we saw this year at the big league level. He struggled, he probably didn’t have the right time to figure it. It was the right time for Jake to go home and gather his thoughts. But he was a little bit of an anomaly when you watch his at-bats, his swing looked the same, everything looked the same. He wasn’t getting his hits.

And I’m confident, Jake has hit everywhere, he’s going to hit. Defensively, our defense got a heck of a lot better when he was out there. And the confidence that he gave our infielders and the things that he can do around the bag were really impressive. I hope Jake is enjoying himself, letting his mind take a break and come in fresh this Spring training and ready to compete.

Even though the team had “some concern” of injury, Cash said OF Tommy Pham wanted to go play winter ball and was “motivated and driven” to want to make his swing better.

Tommy is a very driven player, very motivated. He was just outstanding for us when he came over. And at the end of the year we sat down and talked and he said he wanted to go play winter ball to work on his swing. And I said, How much more do you need to work? You hit .350 the last two months for us, hit all the home runs. When he was healthy, we had a different lineup because he was in it.

So there was some concern. But he felt there was more tinkering that needed to be done. He plays all out. I asked him, please don’t run into any walls on the Dominican baseball fields. Be careful. We called his manager and asked the same thing. But he’s motivated and driven to get his swing where he wants it. And I think that speaks volumes to a guy that has had the last two or three years of success that he still wants to get better.

You can watch the press conference in its entirety at the Twitter link above.

Noteworthiness

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays continue to have a dialog with free-agent right-hander Charlie Morton. Chaim Bloom and company have also maintained a “running dialogue,” and discussed some parameters, with free-agent DH Nelson Cruz. Cruz’s agent, Bryce Dixon, said the slugger is very much interested and called it “a perfect fit,” although Cruz has 3-4 other teams interested. Because of it, the Rays are looking at other options besides a DH-only bat.

Kevin Cash comes in third for MOTY, Blake Snell wins Spahn Award, stadium update

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Rays skipper Kevin Cash came in third in AL Manager of the Year voting on Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)

Rays manager Kevin Cash placed third for the AL Manager of the Year Award, announced Tuesday night, behind winner Bob Melvin of the Oakland Athletics, and second-place finisher Alex Cora of the World Series champion Boston Red Sox. The Athletics, who utilized many of the same tactics as Tampa Bay, were perhaps the only team that shocked more people this season than the Rays.

Cash, the only one of the six contenders to not make the playoffs, made a good case for himself after leading the Rays to 90 wins, a 10-game improvement over 2017. He received five first-place votes, six second-place votes and 14 third-place votes for a total of 57 points in the balloting.

Tampa Bay’s skipper was humbled by those he found himself in the company of, despite where he placed.

There’s no doubt, Cash said. I was up there with the World Series champion manager in Alex Cora and Bob Melvin was winning it for his third time. Very special, honored and humbled to be considered with those two. And also the representatives from the National League teams.

Like Cash, Melvin did more than expected with what he was given, taking a team that won 75 games in 2017 and entering the 2018 campaign with the majors’ lowest payroll. And when he faced a spate of injuries that decimated his starting rotation, Melvin was forced to use of 15 different starters, winning 97 games overall and earning the second AL Wildcard spot.

I’ve always admired him from afar, said Cash. I think there’s a fair correlation between the Rays and the A’s, whether people want to talk about payroll, about being innovative in the game.

Melvin said there was mutual admiration this season, as Oakland “took a hard look” at how the Rays utilized the opener before trying it themselves.

I’ve got a lot of respect for him and what he’s done over the years, Melvin said. Has had to do some things without some of the resources that certainly the teams in his division have. The success that they had, just watching their dugout and the way they do things, it’s great to watch. And you can certainly see that he has the attention of the team and has full support from those guys. That’s a testament to how good he is at what he does.

Cash advocated for the use of the opener strategy and indicated, on the MLB Network, that the Rays will again utilize it in 2019.

The opener’ is going to stay for us. We witnessed the benefit of allowing for these young pitchers to come up, potentially late-inning guys, to get their feet wet in the first inning, and also for the more durable guys, it allows us to manage the game a little bit so we affect how many times they get through the order. It’s something we bought into. Our guys, I can’t give them enough credit for buying into it. We have a lot of information to suggest that it works for us, and we’re going to continue with it.

Now we await the results of the 2018 Cy Young Award, which will be revealed Wednesday at 6:00 PM. In the interim, however, Blake Snell was named the 2018 Warren Spahn Award winner as the best left-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball.

Named after the Hall of Famer Spahn, the award has been given annually to the best southpaw in baseball since 1998.

Blake posted some impressive stats in 2018, said Greg Spahn, son of the late Warren Spahn. This award is special to our family as it not only honors the sport’s best left-handed pitcher but my dad as well. It’s also a wonderful way to celebrate his career and the game of baseball.

Stadium update

With 48 days left until the clock runs out on the memorandum of understanding (MOU) which allowed the Rays to search for a new regional stadium site, you would imagine that an announcement of progress would be imminent. Yet according to investigative journalist Noah Pransky (WTSP), Hillsborough County administrator Mike Merrill is telling commissioners not to expect any news on a deal until at least January.

Go ahead and cancel all the sports facility briefings for the remainder of the year, Michelle Sekouri, executive assistant to county administrator Mike Merrill, wrote to all commissioner’s offices last Friday. Mike is not anticipating having anything to share until January or after.

Meanwhile, St. Petersburg officials told Pransky that the team has not approached them about extending the deadline.

The St. Petersburg city council granted the team the opportunity to explore stadium sites in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, despite a lease at Tropicana Field which runs through 2027. In February, Stu Sternberg announced that a 14-acre parcel of land in Ybor City is the team’s preferred site, yet the door was never fully closed on Pinellas County, which has much more money to contribute the construction of a new stadium.

According to Pransky, financing for the proposed $892-million facility has not been easy to come by, with Hillsborough County taxpayers already paying off three other stadiums. Hillsborough voters also recently voted in favor of a pair of tax referendums that will help support the critically underfunded Hillsborough County School System, as well as mass transportation improvements. Stadium proponents (in Ybor City) have been hopeful that a public/private partnership would bridge the gap between the estimated cost of the project, and the limited portion of the bill the team indicated it would fund itself ($150-million).

As Pransky writes, it’s highly improbable that a deal of this magnitude will be completed by New Year’s Eve, if at all.

It’s possible the Rays could work out a stadium deal almost exclusively with private developers and still meet their obligation to give St. Petersburg a definitive answer about their future by Dec. 31. But privately-funded major league stadiums are almost non-existent in modern-day America, and unheard of in a market like Tampa, that lacks both significant corporate activity and disposable income.

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, who offered the team a new stadium at the Tropicana Field site, remains willing to work with the team.

While they still have time to get some questions answered in Hillsborough, I stand ready to work with the Rays on securing their future in St. Petersburg, said Kriseman.

The team most recently shocked the local sports business world with the announcement of the October purchase of the Tampa Bay Rowdies.

The Rowdies play at and control the rights to, Al Lang Stadium on St. Petersburg’s waterfront, the former future site of the Rays. However, the team maintains the purchase had “nothing to do with short-term or immediate plans they have for baseball,” rather it was simply investing in the community.

…And so the soap opera continues.