X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: staying alive, Tampa Bay Rays defeat Baltimore, 8-3

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Wilson’s second inning grand slam was the difference in last night’s ball game. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Wilson Ramos hit a second inning grand slam, the difference in Friday night’s game, while Alex Cobb battled through six innings, as the Tampa Bay Rays pounded the Orioles, 8-3, in Baltimore. Evan Longoria’s third inning solo shot tied the club record for home runs set last season. Tampa Bay starts the day still hanging on to its slim postseason chances, five games back of the last Wildcard spot with eight games left to play.

After a pair of 1-2-3 frames by Ubaldo Jimenez and Alex Cobb, Logan Morrison started the Rays’ second inning rally when he was hit by an 0-2 pitch. The HBP came just one pitch after Morrison painfully fouled a ball off his ankle. Suffice it to say he was in a lot of pain following that plate appearance, yet he stayed in the game. Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson went back-to-back with seeing eye singles (to center and right, respectively) loading the bases for the Buffalo. Ramos didn’t waste any time, and belted a first-pitch fastball 439 feet into the left field seats for an early four-run lead.

It was the fourth grand slam for Tampa Bay this season, and the 10th homer for Ramos in 2017.

Yet Baltimore answered in the bottom of the frame against Cobb, loading the bases on a pair of seeing eye singles, and a walk. Austin Hays hit a sacrifice-fly to center to put the Orioles on the board, while their second run crossed the plate on the first of two wild pitches by the right-hander.

Determined not to have their death warrant signed on this fateful evening, the Rays bounced back with two more runs in the top of the third. Evan Longoria homered to start the inning, his 19th of the season and the 216th of Tampa Bay’s 2017 campaign, tying the franchise record set last year. After Morrison and Ramos reached on a couple of base hits sandwiched around a couple of outs, Adeiny Hechavarria drove in the second run of the frame on a base hit to center, chasing Jimenez.

The run support was more than enough for Cobb, who battled throughout his start — only collecting one clean frame in the first. Yet the right-hander made the all important big pitches when he needed to, while also benefitting from his defense. For example, in the third inning, with a runner in scoring position, Dickerson threw out Manny Machado at the plate as he attempted to score on an Adam Jones single, cutting down a potential run.

Baltimore got one run closer when Chris Davis hit a solo homer in the fourth, however, Dickerson’s fifth inning RBI double, scoring Souza, again gave Tampa Bay a four-run lead.

Steve Cishek took over for Cobb in the seventh inning and worked around a single, while Tommy Hunter fanned the side in the side on 15 pitches in the following inning.

The Rays scored one last run in the ninth on Lucas Duda’s double to right-center — snapping an 0-20 skid, and scoring Kevin Kiermaier, who was hit by a pitch.

Finally, Brad Boxberger worked around a one-out walk in the ninth inning, fanning the side and putting Baltimore out of its misery.

The New What Next

Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP) will take the mound for the Rays in the third game of four, pitching opposite of former Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP).

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/23/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza Jr. RF
Dickerson LF
Ramos C
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Adeiny Hechavarria has been a very good acquisition for the Rays. How good? Hechavarria hasn’t committed an error since August 1. Compare that with Orioles SS Tim Beckham, who has committed 9. Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) during that time, Hechavarria ranks first in the league at the position with a 1.000 fielding percentage; Beckham is 25th of the 27 qualifiers at .959. I’d argue that it would be wise for the Rays to offer Hechavarria a long-term deal — or in the very least a contract extension — move Miller off 2B, and allow Willy Adames and Daniel Robertson to platoon the middle infield. Then again the Rays ownership is notoriously cheap, so…

Rays 9/22/17 starting lineup and pregame notes; Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays

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Friday = bump day for Alex Cobb. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a disappointing, momentum killing 3-1 loss in Baltimore on Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays will try to bounce back tonight in game two of four. The Rays needs to go 7-2 over the next nine games to end the season at .500, and win outright to even continue their hopes for an improbable postseason berth.

Tampa Bay was held to just one run five hits last night, and now have been limited to two runs or fewer in six of the last nine games. Meanwhile, Matt Andriese bounced back from a tenuous three-run, four-hit first inning to hold the Orioles scoreless over the remainder of his six inning, eight strikeout start.

The New What Next

lex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP) will start for the Rays tonight, pitching opposite of Ubaldo Jimenez (6–10 6.57).

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/22/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Dickerson LF
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Robertson 2B
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

— Tim Beckham will be in the lineup tonight vs. his ex-Rays mates, hitting leadoff and playing short.

— From the mouth of Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) to your ears:

The Rays still talk about having a shot to make the playoffs. But recognizing and correcting mistakes will help them next year, such as Mallex Smith trying to steal third in the first. “Those are the little things we’ve got to find how to eliminate real quick,” manager Kevin Cash said.

— Contrary to what Ken Hagan or Bob Buckhorn might lead you to believe, it appears that a new Rays stadium in Tampa is not a top priority, at least for the taxpayers. According to Tampa Bay Times staff writer, Richard Danielson, 89 percent of respondents to a survey of Tampa citizens prioritize the improvement of streets and easing flooding, over keeping the Rays in the area, much less building a new facility across the bay.

Practically tied for second were police/community relations and mass transportation options, including light rail. Both were rated as important by nearly 75 percent of those surveyed.

Keeping the Tampa Bay Rays in the region came toward the very bottom of the list of taxpayer priorities (39.4 percent). You know, because what’s the point in building a stadium IF YOU CAN’T GET THERE SAFELY AND EFFICIENTLY?

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

Rays remain optimistic, Cubs fans turn the Trop into Wrigley south, and roster moves

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The quiet before the rather tepid offensive storm Tuesday night. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After a 2-1 loss to the reigning World Series champions on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to rebound and split the short two-game set, and the season series, with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have won seven straight, while the Rays have won just one game in each of the last three series. They would need to go 8-3 over the final 11 games to finish at .500, while their postseason hopes are all but nonexistent at this point.

Optimism will make you suffer fools gladly.
I’m holding out for you to do the right thing,
Emphatically.

— American Steel

In spite of the monumental odds against them, Rays’ players, like Blake Snell and Steven Souza Jr., remain optimistic that they can salvage the season. Optimism is an intoxicating drug.

I feel all of us still think there’s a shot, said Snell. We all want to do it. We’re all in this together. We always felt there was a shot from the start and all the way to the end.

Souza was a bit more realistic:

We’re running out of time.

Of course Tampa Bay’s playoffs chances have all but evaporated — they start the day five games out of the final Wilcard spot with just 12 games left to play. It certainly doesn’t help that the offense has been all but nonexistent in three of the last four games.

What also doesn’t help, which Chris Archer pointed out last night, is the glaring lack of support from the Rays’ loyal fanbase.

Having 25,000 Cub fans here, wasn’t very fun either.

It’s weird, I didn’t know we had that many mid-western people in Tampa, but I guess we do. It’s just weird for their players to come out and get announced and just get so much love.

It felt like we were at Citi Field, playing the Yankees. Honestly, it felt very similar to that…and I’m not being critical it was just crazy how much royal blue there was out there.

When Wilson Contreras ran out to warm up the pitcher…like he got a standing o.

I’ve been here for however long, I’ve seen some really, really good players come and I’ve never seen anybody get as much love when they go to warm up then some of their players did.

It was definitely more of a road environment as opposed to a home environment tonight.

Granted there are myriad reasons why Rays’ fans skipped out of Tuesday night’s ball game. Although in all fairness, if that was just the second largest crowd of the season, that’s pretty sad. It is clearly evident that there is stadium saga induced PTSD which has affected the attendance all season long. Pair that with an ownership that apparently does not possess the want or the desire to stop being cheap, and start spending money to compete.

The effect on the players has become palpable, and now they — by way of the more vocal players, like Chris Archer — are letting us know how the lack of fans impacts the collective psyche of the team. If we fans want to see a diminished presence from the visiting team’s fan base, then it is up to all of us to purchase those tickets and plant our bottoms into those seats first and foremost.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/20/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza Jr. RF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Puello DH
Miller 2B
Bourjos LF
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays added two players to the roster this afternoon. INF Daniel Robertson will rejoin the Rays, as will RHP Chih-Wei Hu. Additionally, Xavier Cedeno will be activated from the 60-day DL, after rehabbing with Durham. A corresponding move will need to be made to make room for Cedeno.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Cubs — an Interleague series preview

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Chris Archer will take the mound for the Rays on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays welcome Joe Maddon and the Chicago Cubs into Tropicana Field, where they will start a two-game Interleague series on Tuesday. Hanging on by a thread of a 0.5% chance of a playoff berth, the Rays salvaged the final game of the series against the Red Sox on Sunday, while the Cubs are in the midst of a six-game win streak.

(Stats: ESPN)

I liken the Rays playoff pursuit to those that purchase lottery tickets and expect a large windfall. While there is a statistical probability that you or I could walk away with the jackpot, the likelihood of that happening is a one in 175 million chance (a .0000005714286% chance). Those are pretty astronomical odds.

Likewise, it would take a lot for the Rays to punch their proverbial postseason ticket over the next 12 games. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not so much. Suffice it to say these are must win games, and whatever the case it all starts Tuesday.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

To put it bluntly, with a 5.30 ERA over the last 14 days, if there is any hope of the Rays taking the series against the reigning World Series champs, two things must occur:

  1. Chris Archer, who has performed to a 4.26 ERA/3.74 FIP in the second half, MUST pitch well in the series opener (Blake Snell on Wednesday too).
  2. It is incumbent upon Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson and Lucas Duda to slip out of their individual (well, combined) funks.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days Kevin Cash will lean on the aforementioned Chris Archer (9-10, 4.06 ERA, 3.36 FIP) and Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP). Joe Maddon will counter with former Rays farm-hand Mike Montgomery (4-5, 4.62 ERA, 4.05 FIP), and Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer allowed three runs over four innings on Wednesday against the Yankees, and taking the loss in doing so. The right-hander has struggled in two starts since his return from a bout with forearm tightness, allowing nine earned runs on 15 hits over seven innings, although the Rays have not indicated that that is still an issue. Archer is 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 post-All-Star break starts; he beat he Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 4 when he allowed three runs over six innings.

Montgomery, the Rays former left-handed farm-hand, returned to the Cubs rotation after bouncing back and forth, to and from the bullpen. Montgomery is 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 starts. The left-handed 93 mph sinker/92mph four-seam fastball/78mph curveball throwing hurler os 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA in four appearances (one start) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (1-3, 3B)

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— The Cubs have eight players and coaches who spent time in Devil Rays/Rays uniforms: Chris Bosio (pitching coach), Wade Davis (RHP), Eric Hinske (assistant hitting coach), Joe Maddon (manager), Dave Martinez (bench coach), Mike Montgomery (LHP), Rene Rivera (C), Ben Zobrist (INF/OF).

— Wednesday’s first pitch will be thrown out by Beau Zimmer, the grandson of Don Zimmer, who had extensive connections between both ball clubs.

— The Rays are expected to have a video tribute to their former manager at some point during the upcoming series, be that Tuesday or Wednesday.

— Evan Longoria and Kahwa Coffee are teaming up for a “brand collaboration” to help Hurricane Irma relief efforts. More details will be announced Tuesday.