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A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays to sign Avisail Garcia; interested in Matt Davidson

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The Tampa Bay Rays reportedly came to a one-year agreement with outfielder Avisail Garcia on Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays dipped into the offseason free-agent market on Monday, reportedly coming to terms with outfielder Avisail Garcia on a one-year, $3.5-million deal. The deal is pending a physical and includes an addition $2.5-million in incentives.

The Rays have been in the market for a right-handed bat to pair with DH/1B Ji-Man Choi and Garcia fits that description to a large extent. The outfielder was plagued with knee and hamstring issues last season, limiting him to just 93 games in which he slashed a disappointing .236 BA/.281 OBP/.438 SLG/.719 OPS line over 385 plate appearances, with a -4 DRS in the outfield, leading to a modest 0.3 fWAR in spite of his power profile. In 2017, however, Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign, performing to a .330 BA/.380 OBP/.506 SLG/.886 OPS line across 561 plate appearances, with 18 home runs, 80 RBI and a 4.6 fWAR.

Aside from the fact that Garcia is a low-risk, low-cost player, it is difficult to know what to make of him. He was clearly the recipient of the good luck dragons in 2017, posting a .392 BABIP which was an anomaly when compared to his career numbers. As Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) writes, Garcia largely defied the odds.

Garcia struck out at a career-low 19.8 percent clip that season, but he also hit the ball on the ground at a 52.2 percent clip — hardly a trend that is conducive to success for a plodding player who is listed at 6’4″ and 240 pounds.

True to projections, Garcia regressed in 2018, although there are some silver linings, which Adams also noted.

Garcia hit the ball in the air at a career-high 34.4 percent rate, resulting in a clear power surge. Despite having just 385 PAs last season, he clubbed a career-high 19 home runs, and his .202 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was easily a career-high mark as well. Moreover, Garcia’s hard-hit rate jumped from 40.7 percent in 2017 to 43.2 percent in 2018, per Statcast. At the same time, though, Garcia also punched out in a career-worst 26.5 percent of his plate appearances.

The Rays have a crowded outfield chock full of strong defenders like Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows who are slated to receive the bulk of the regular work. This suggests that Garcia will likely see more time at DH and play in the outfield corners only sparingly.

If Garcia can cut back on his strikeouts, while maintaining his hard-contact and fly-ball gains, he could prove to be a cheap source of power next season.

Noteworthiness

— In a tweet, Saturday Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) noted Tampa Bay’s interest in free-agent corner infielder Matt Davidson as a potential two-way player.

Davidson is most known for his offensive prowess. The former top-100 prospect combined for 46 homers with the ChiSox between 2017 and 2018, during which he slashed .224 BA/.291 OBP/.345 SLG/.636 OPS/94 wRC+ across 939 plate appearances. He did fare better last season, posting a 104 wRC+ across 496 PAs and walking a career-high 10.5% (up from 4.3% the season previous), with a .228 BA/.319 OBP/.419 SLG/.738 OPS/.321 wOBA/104 wRC+.

More interestingly though, Davidson factored into Chicago’s bullpen, tossing 3-1/3 innings of one-hit ball in three appearances from June through August.

Davidson has reportedly worked to become a better option on out of the ‘pen since the end of the season, and the White Sox liked what they saw out of the right-hander’s 92 mph fastball. He also displayed a nasty breaking ball, which he used to strike out Rougned Odor and Giancarlo Stanton (seen above). Even so, Chicago chose not to tender Davidson’s projected $2.4-million contract via arbitration.

Davidson’s likely purpose would be to platoon first base with Ji-Man Choi, the projected starter at the position. The left-handed Choi logged tremendous production last season in 221 plate appearances, slashing .280 BA/.372 OBP/.536 SLG/.908 OPS/146 wRC+ with nine homers, 22 runs, 23 RBI and a .256 ISO. Yet Choi played sparingly left-handed pitchers, while Davidson destroyed southpaws, suggesting a platoon at first.

Rays come to terms with Zunino, Duffy, and Roe; Pham headed to arbitration

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Three out of four ain’t bad. The Rays came to terms with all of their arbitration-eligible players but Tommy Pham on Friday.

The arbitration deadline passed on Friday, as the Tampa Bay Rays were able to agree to terms with three of their four eligible players: Mike Zunino, Matt Duffy, and Chaz Roe. The Rays, however, were unable to come to terms with outfielder Tommy Pham. The two sides will now go to an arbitration case, on an unspecified date, in February.

Zunino, who was acquired in the trade for Mallex Smith with Seattle, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. The catcher was projected to earn $4.2-million in 2019, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Also in his second year of arbitration eligibility, Duffy was projected to earn $2.6-million. Roe — who is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time — was projected to earn $1.4-million.

Pham, who boasted a .343 BA/.448 OBP/.622 SLG/1.070 slash line across 39 games with the Rays (while performing to an overall 4.0 fWAR) after he was acquired from the St. Louis at last season’s non-waiver trade deadline, earned $570,100 in 2018 as a pre-arbitration eligible player. The outfielder turned down a two-year deal from the Cardinals and reportedly wasn’t happy with the figures he was being offered for the season, but eventually signed in order to play, writes Adam Sanford (DRaysBay).

Pham had not been shy about his treatment by the Cardinals’ front office during his time with St. Louis. He, most recently, made headlines for criticizing the Rays’ fanbase support — or lack thereof — in an interview with SiriusXM on December 27, saying the team has “really no fan base at all.”

It isn’t yet known how far apart the two sides are.

Noteworthiness

— Per Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors), the Rays are one of six teams still in on catcher J.T. Realmuto. It, however, appears the Dodgers may be (the) most motivated to land the backstop.

— Consider this our annual open call for writers and contributors to X-Rays Spex! Do you have writing chops that, in the very least, can be honed, a love of the Rays, and an urge to geek out on a new hobby? Are you familiar with WordPress, or open to learning how to use this incredibly simple platform? If you answered yes to those questions, then please get in touch with a sample of your writing at belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com.

Rays re-acquire Oliver Drake; designate Jamie Schultz for assignment

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The Rays re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Tampa Bay Rays announced that they re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Rays initially claimed Drake off waivers in November, yet designated him for assignment a couple of weeks later. Meanwhile, after being claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays, Toronto designated Drake for assignment last week in order to open a spot on the roster for southpaw Clayton Richard. In order to open a spot for Drake on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay announced that right-hander Jaime Schultz has been designated for assignment.

Drake, 31, hasn’t had much success in his brief big league career, however, there are reasons to believe he could succeed in the near future. The right-hander has been rather unlucky over the past couple of seasons, having been staked to a .353 BABIP, albeit with an exceptional 47% swinging strike percentage. Drake worked to a 2.21 ERA with an impressive 3.3 K/BB ratio and a 50% ground-ball rate across 20-1/3 innings with the Twins — the only team with which he found real success.

Drake also saw MLB action with four other teams in 2018 (Blue Jays, Angels, Indians, Brewers), and he’s seen time with six Major League clubs over the past two seasons. Drake is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with Tampa Bay (or another club) next spring or else be exposed to waivers yet again.

Schultz, 27, was once considered one of Tampa Bay’s most promising MiLB arms. However, he struggled to a 5.64 ERA in 30-1/3 innings last season. Even though he racked up 35 strikeouts in the time, struggled mightily with command, issuing 17 walks and hit three batters. The right-hander also underperformed in Durham last season and hasn’t been able to consistently avoid a bloated walk rate in the upper minors.

Rays acquire Emilio Pagan in three-team trade

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The Rays acquired Emilio Pagan from the Athletics in a three-team trade on Friday.

The Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, and Texas Rangers have completed a three-team trade that will bring right-handed reliever Emilio Pagan to St. Petersburg from Oakland. The Rays will also receive the Athletics’ Competitive Balance Round A selection in next year’s draft (currently slotted in at number 38 overall) and a Minor League right-hander, Rollie Lacy, from Texas. In return, Tampa Bay will send minor league southpaws Brock Burke and Kyle Bird and Minor League right-hander Yoel Espinal to the Rangers.

Pagan, 27, will join his third organization in three years. He spent just one season in Oakland after being acquired from the Mariners in the 2017-18 offseason. Though he’s moved journeyed a fair bit, Pagan has generally had useful big league results, notching a 3.85 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 112-1/3 innings as a Major Leaguer.

Pagan pitched in 55 games for Oakland, finishing the 2018 campaign with a 4.35 ERA/4.92 FIP to pair with a 24.1 K% and 7.3 BB% across 62 innings pitched.

The reliever has been tremendous against right-handed batters, holding them to a .192 BA/.237 OBP/.336 SLG/.573 OPS line while posting a 6.23% K/BB in his big league career. Even though Pagan shows the ability to miss plenty of bats, his kryptonite has been left-handed hitters, which have lit him up. He’s also an extreme fly-ball pitcher that’s yielded a 1.6 HR/9 at the Major League level.

Even so, JT Morgan (DRaysBay) calls Pagan an apt replacement for Sergio Romo:

Pagan makes sense as a replacement for Sergio Romo. He shouldn’t be getting the ninth inning role, but with teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Angels being primarily stacked with right handed batters at the top of their lineups being an opener could make some sense for the Rays against the teams they are most likely looking to compete with.

Pagan is able to pitch in multiple innings which was likely appealing to the Rays, who lean on multi-inning relievers as part of their opener strategy.

His repertoire, according to Brooks Baseball:

Emilio Pagan has thrown 1,901 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2016 and 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, The World Baseball Classic, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Slider (86mph). He also rarely throws a Change (88mph) and Sinker (94mph).

His fourseam fastball generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has less armside movement than typical, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has slightly above average velo and has some added backspin. His slider is a prototypical pitch with few remarkable qualities. His change generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ changeups, is much firmer than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups and has a lot of backspin. His sinker (take this with a grain of salt because he’s only thrown 12 of them in 2018) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has well above average velo, has less armside run than typical and has little sinking action compared to a true sinker.

Mark Polishuk (MLB Trade Rumors) wrote about Lacy, saying:

The 23-year-old Lacy will join the Tampa Bay organization after spending only a brief time with the Rangers. Texas acquired Lacy in the July trade that sent Cole Hamels to the Cubs, though his results with the Rangers dropped off a bit from the numbers he posted in the Cubs’ minor league system. Some of that surely coincides with a move from Class-A to Class-A Advanced, and it’s worth noting that Lacy only totaled 28 1/3 innings in the Rangers’ system before the season ended, so it’s also a small sample of data. On the season as a whole, the right-hander worked to a 2.97 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of nearly 60 percent through 109 innings between those two levels this season.

The deal cleared space on the 40-man roster for Charlie Morton, who was acquired at the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings on December 12.

On Thursday, the Rays came to terms on a Minor League deal for left-hander Jairo Labourt.

Lambourt, 24, came over to Toronto as part of the 2015 David Price trade with the Tigers. He pitched in the MLB Future’s Game in 2017 and made his Major League debut later that season. He posted a 4.76 ERA and an 11/9 K/BB across 5-2/3 innings of work last season with the White Sox’s affiliate. He will need to improve his shaky control if he wants to make it back to the majors with the Rays.

Rays agree to a two-year, $30-million deal with Charlie Morton

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The Rays have inked a two-year, $30-million deal with right-hander Charlie Morton pending a physical.

The Tampa Bay Rays came to an agreement on a two-year, $30-million deal with right-hander Charlie Morton, pending a physical. The deal includes an option for up to $15-million in 2021 and assignment bonuses if Morton is traded, valued at $1-million in 2019 and $500-thousand in 2020.

The 35-year-old Morton really blossomed since coming to the Astros prior to the 2017 season. His new pitching philosophy allowed him to collect more strikeouts while also increase his velocity — his fastball velocity averaged 96 mph last season, but a key to his success with the Astros was the increased use of his curveball. The right-hander boasted a 10.4 K/9, and a 3.19 K/BB rate across 313-2/3 innings in an Astros uniform. He went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 2017 and 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA last season, posting career bests in wins, ERA, WHIP (1.16), and punchouts (201). The right-hander performed to a 6.3 fWAR over the last two seasons, as compared to a 7.8 fWAR over his previous nine seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies.

Like Nathan Eovaldi before him, Morton has a reputation for being a thoughtful pitcher who is a steadying, veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Houston didn’t issue a $17.9-million qualifying offer to Morton after the 2018 season but was said to be interested in bringing him back. He previously had given the impression that he could retire soon in order to spend time with his family in Delaware.

Morton joins American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as the three conventional hurlers in a rotation likely to include two opener spots(with Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough, Jalen Beeks, and Wilmer Font working behind them). Adding a veteran arm like Morton will cover innings and provide some extra cushion for the relief corps as it prepares for another significant workload. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted, Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon are expected to return from Tommy John surgery in June.

Rays Senior VP of Baseball Operations, Erik Neander, wouldn’t address the Morton deal since it is not official, pending physical, although he did tell Topkin they are “still active” and the “doors are still open” for adding a hitter via trade or free agency — they still hope to do something.

Cruz watch 2018

The Rays are still in on Nelson Cruz, although Senior VP of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom told Topkin other options remained for a right-handed power bat.

We’ve advanced the ball a little bit on some fronts, Bloom said. Obviously this, more than any other time, at the winter meetings you have a lot of different possibilities. So when there are that many possibilities it’s hard to know exactly which one, if any, is going to get over the finish line. Some conversations progressed.

Cruz’s market took a potentially interesting twist with a report out of the Dominican Republic (where he lives), that said he’d narrowed his options to Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Per to Topkin, that would be a good sign for the Rays, as the Astros would probably be their toughest competition among the four reported suitors, the White Sox the other.