X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Tampa Bay Rays 8/15/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

By Leave a Comment

The irony is not lost on me that one of the Rays who’s struggling the most plated the only run for Tampa Bay last night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays hoped to get back on track Monday after a 2-7 home stand. They, unfortunately, fell behind early and could not make up the deficit against Toronto in a 2-1 loss. The Rays have dropped eight of ten, and have scored just 12 runs during that stretch. They again hope to get back on track tonight against a much tougher hurler on the mound.

One of the more unproductive pieces of the Rays lineup, Brad Miller, spoke about the team’s offensive drought this afternoon, saying,

I think our team is tired of almost doing it … We’re all professional, we all have a lot of pride, we want to get it done.

No offense Brad, but seeing that you’ve collected just nine hits (including three doubles and a homer) in your last 64 plate appearances, not to mention that you’ve crossed the plate just four times — and driven in just four runs — during that stretch, I would imagine that you are a main contributor to the run scoring blackout.

Evan Longoria added,

It’s kind of embarrassing for lack of a better explanation. Not lack of effort, belief, coaching.

For his part, Rays manager Kevin Cash said that the time to break out of the slump is now,

The offense is going to be fine, I know people probably scratch their head when I say that, but I believe it. Time is of the essence, we need to get this going — now.

If things continue down this path, we could be looking at a different batting order. Cash defended his sticking with the same lineup, since the slump has been a group effort and not just the two-and-three hitters who have been struggling, he acknowledged changes could be in the works.

One thing is certain, with the Rays just 2-1/2 games out of the last Wildcard slot, something needs to happen.

I digress.

Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.87 FIP) will get the start Tuesday night, pitching opposite of Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85 ERA, 4.35 FIP).

Snell put together one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday, limiting Cleveland to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 6-1/3 innings. The southpaw leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Estrada was again excellent in his last time turn, and he’s now gone seven innings in three consecutive starts. The right-hander has pitched to contact of late, coaxing plenty of weak fly-ball outs. After performing to a 9.52 ERA through nine starts, Estrada has now allowed just six runs in 26 innings over his past four outings. The Rays torched Estrada for 16 runs over his previous three starts, totaling 14-1/3 innings. They hope to see the negatively regressed right-hander on Tuesday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-17, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-18, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-4), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 4 RBI), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/15/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza RF
Smith CF
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Robertson 2B
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Matt Andriese (hip) will make his second rehab start on Friday for the Stone Crabs. Kevin Kiermaier will play in center for them tonight, Wednesday, and Thursday.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly had good day at the Trop, and could be throwing off the mound again as soon as Thursday. His potential return could be next week.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Cleveland — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

Austin Pruitt will make his third consecutive start against an opposing team’s ace on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays finished a brief, two-game series with Boston on a down note Wednesday night, falling to the Red Sox 8-2. They will try to turn their fortunes around when they start a four-game set with Terry Francona’s team from Cleveland on Thursday.

(Stats: ESPN)

Coming off their two-game series against the Rockies, Cleveland was able to do two things the Rays weren’t:

  1. Drive in runners in scoring position.
  2. Split a series.

Tampa Bay is coming off one of the sloppiest games in recent history. And while there were only two official errors committed in Wednesday’s series finale, when you factor in two wild pitches and a passed ball, along with the two errors, five of Boston’s eight runs either came as a result of a gaffe or were set up by a mistake. Simply put, if the Rays still consider themselves to be playoff contending team, then these kind of blunders — coupled with their recent inability to score runs* — have got to stop … and now.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (0-6, 4.98 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Jacob Faria (5-2, 2.81 ERA, 3.56 FIP), Chris Archer (8-6, 3.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP), and Austin Pruitt (6-3, 5.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP) over the next four days. Terry Francona will counter with Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.35 ERA, 3.96 FIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-5, 4.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP), Mike Clevinger (5-4, 3.70 ERA, 4.26 FIP), and Corey Kluber (10-3, 2.65 ERA, 2.43 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell was recalled from Triple-A Durham on Tuesday after being demoted a week or so back. The southpaw is expected to start Thursday in place of Alex Cobb, who was placed on the disabled list with turf toe (retroactive to 8/6).

Salazar fanned a career-high 12 in seven innings of one-run ball against the Evil Empire in his last turn. He has been great since coming off the DL on July 22, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings. Salazar has now allowed just three runs on eight hits and five walks while striking out 28 batters in that stretch. The Rays were able to torch the right-hander for five runs on six hits (including four homers) over five innings of work on May 21. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4), Corey Dickerson (2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B)

Faria rebounded from a loss on Friday against the Brewers, notching a quality start while striking out nine over six innings of work. Unfortunately for the right-hander, the offense was blanked and he was tagged with a loss. Faria has nine quality starts in 11 outings.

Carrasco took the loss after he gave up five runs on six hits and two walks on Sunday. He struck out six. In 12 road starts this season, Carrasco is 7-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70-2/3 innings. However, the veteran right-hander has now allowed 10 earned runs over his last two starts (7-1/3 innings). He was pulled after just 3-2/3 innings of work against the Rays in May after he allowed five runs on six hits (including a homer) and three walks. Key Matchups: Brad Miller (3-5, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-5, 2B, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (5-17, 2B, 3 RBI, BB)

Archer held the Brewers to one run on three hits over six innings, but came away with a no-decision. He has made 15 consecutive  starts of at least six innings pitched — the longest such streak of his career. The right-hander was in command of his repertoire and mowed down Milwaukee’s hitters over the first five frames, allowing just one walk and a hit in the process. It was an encouraging turn for Archer, who had given up a total of seven earned runs over his previous two starts against Houston and New York.

Clevinger will make his first start since July 31, when he allowed five runs in three innings against Boston. The right-hander was briefly moved to the ‘pen after he allowed a combined 10 earned runs in his previous two starts. Clevinger has just 1/3 of an inning of experience against the Rays, which came out of the bullpen in May. This season he has relied primarily upon 93 mph worm-burner four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a whiffy 81 mph slider, a firm 87 mph swing-and-miss changeup, and a 75 mph curveball.

Pruitt nearly matched Chris Sale, working around a leadoff double to start the game, and facing just one over the minimum over the first three frames. Boston was able to touch the right-hander for a one-run rally, but he limited the damage, and worked around any trouble all night. Pruitt scattered seven hits (only one to the pull side) and one walk, while fanning five and holding the Red Sox to 0-for-8 wRISP.

Kluber pitched Cleveland to victory with his second consecutive complete-game performance in his last turn. He allowed one run on three hits with no walks and 11 punch outs against the Rockies on Tuesday. Kluber now has 13 straight starts with eight-plus strikeouts. Even though he missed a month on the DL due to a back injury, the right-hander ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 172 strikeouts over 132-2/3 innings. Since his return, the 31-year-old is 7-1 with a 1.70 ERA over 13 starts. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-9, 2 2B), Evan Longoria (7-20, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Trevor Plouffe (13-46, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Jake Odorizzi was struck on his heel by an Eduardo Nunez comebacker on his 89th pitch of the night.

Odorizzi was helped off the field without putting any weight on his right leg. Thankfully the X-Rays on his right foot were negative, and Odorizzi is listed as day-to-day.

Noteworthiness

— *As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted, the Rays have been historically quiet at the plate lately.

  • Only twice previously in 20 seasons of play have the Rays scored four or fewer runs over a five-game span: Four from May 30-June 3, 2014 against the Red Sox and Marlins, and three from July 2-9, 1998 against the Braves, Blue Jays and Yankees.
  • The last time the Rays went five straight games scoring two or fewer runs was May 28-June 3, 2014. (They also did it over the end of the 2014 and start of the 2015 season.) The team record is seven, from Sept. 7-13, 2009.
  • The Rays are hitless in their last 28 at-bats with runners in scoring position, their last a two-run double by Steven Souza Jr. in the seventh inning on Thursday in Houston.
  • The Rays have scored in just three of their last 47 innings at the plate, starting with the eighth inning Thursday in Houston.
  • Wednesday’s two-run sixth inning was their first with multiple runs since that seventh inning against the Astros.
  • After averaging 4.76 runs over 90 games before the All-Star break, the Rays have posted only 3.24 a game in the 25 since.

— Willy Adames has performed to a .265 BA/.361 OBP/.401 SLG/.762 OPS/.346 wOBA in 469 PA with Triple-A Durham. He also has driven in 45 RBI, and crossed the plate 62 times. Dare I say Adames would make a nice addition to the Rays considering their lack of production at 2B in Brad Miller?

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

Logan Morrison drove in Tampa Bay’s first run in 21 innings with a second inning base hit on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On the heels of a grueling three-game set with Milwaukee — culminating in an emotional series-salvaging walk-off home run by Steven Souza Junior — the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Boston Red Sox into the Trop for a brief two-game series, starting Tuesday.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays didn’t look like an offensive juggernaut in the series against the Brewers. Even though they managed to salvage the last game of set, they did so by a 2-1 score, and they were blanked over the first two games. Tampa Bay has averaged just 2.00 runs per game in the last five games, yet it is 3-2 in those games as the pitching staff has performed to a 1.80 ERA over that stretch.

To put it bluntly, the Rays need to get their offense going in this series, as Boston has been strong at the plate of late. Boding in their favor though, the good guys are 30-25 here at home, where they’ve averaged just under five runs per game (4.56). The Rays start the series 5-1/2 games out of first place in the AL East, 2-1/2 games behind New York for the top Wildcard slot, and tied with Kansas City for the last Wildcard slot. Suffice it to say, they have a lot to play for in this series.

After a little slump the Red Sox are again hot. They are coming off a four-game sweep of the White Sox at Fenway, having outscored Chicago by an 11-run differential over the series. The Offense has been an issue for this team, but it is starting to catchup up with the pitching staff of late, averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last eight games.

The Rays took 3-of-4 from the Red Sox at Tropicana Field in July.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next couple of days Kevin Cash will lean on Austin Pruitt (6-2, 5.65 ERA, 3.91 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (6-4, 4.47 ERA, 5.74 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (13-4, 2.70 ERA, 2.07 FIP), and Rick Porcello (5-14, 4.70 ERA, 4.33 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Pruitt made his second start since getting recalled from Triple-A Durham last Wednesday, in Houston. The right-hander responded with a quality start, blanking the ‘Stros on five hits and a walk over 6-1/3 innings. All of the the hits Pruitt surrendered led off an inning, yet the right-hander played off of Houston’s aggressiveness and pitched to the margins. In doing so he induced weak contact and coaxed mishits, held the Astros to 0-for-6 wRISP — Houston went 0-for-9 overall — and kept his pitch count low. In the battle for Texas, Austin reigned supreme over Dallas Keuchel.

Sale showed signs of being human in his last start, allowing seven runs and two homers in five innings against Cleveland. Before that start, Sale had thrown 21-2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. A marquee pitcher’s duel against Carlos Carrasco turned into a Fenway Park shootout that saw 10 runners cross the plate over the first two frames, while five more score in the ninth. In his last start against the Rays, Sale allowed four runs (all earned) on seven hits, including a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6), Logan Morrison (5-12, HR, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (14-46, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (2-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3)

Odorizzi was activated from the disabled list (retroactive to July 25) after suffering a lower back strain. He allowed two runs on three hits and no walks, while striking out six over three innings in a rehab start for the Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs on Friday. The right-hander told Kevin Cash, “I’m ready to go … I will be back in there next time my spot comes up, so no more rehab starts.” He also told Cash that he hadn’t this good in quite a while — validating the skipper’s decision to start him against Boston on Wednesday.

Porcello had his strongest outing of 2017 at the Trop on July 8, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven in a season-high eight innings. He, however, took a loss. Porcello most recently allowed five runs on seven hits over 5-1/3 innings against the ChiSox. With a 4.70 ERA on the season, and a 2-9 record since May 28, the Rays should be able to be competitive against the right-hander. It bears mentioning, Porcello has dropped two out of his three starts against Tampa Bay this year. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Corey Dickerson (8-29, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (14-53, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (8-29, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (2-6, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (8-27, HR, RBI, BB)

Steven Souza walks it off in Rays 2-1 victory; 40-man roster moves

By Leave a Comment

Yes, that was a huge win in an otherwise lost series. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tampa Bay snapped its 21 inning scoreless streak Sunday afternoon against Milwaukee, and Steven Souza Jr. hit a ninth inning walk off blast that gave the Rays a 2–1 victory over the Brewers.

At the time of writing, the Rays are currently tied with Kansas City for the final playoff spot, two-games back of New York for the lead Wildcard spot, and 5-1/2 games behind the Red Sox. The Royals are playing a double header today, so Tampa Bay could be 1/2 of a game ahead, or 1/2 of a game behind, Kansas City pending the outcome of game two.

Additionally, the Rays made a roster move prior to the game, trading Ryan Garton to, you guessed it, Seattle.

The shot heard ’round the world

Souza lashed a 1–0 pitch into section 145 off St Petersburg native Jacob Barnes to give the first Rays not only a crucial win, but their first walk-off homer since May 22, 2014 (Sean Rodriguez vs Oakland) — snapping the longest active streak in Major League Baseball.

(Photo Credit: Dave Haller/Tampa Bay Rays)

Tampa Bay welcomes the Boston Red Sox into the Trop for a two game series starting Tuesday. The Rays need to win head-to-head contests against the competitors ahead of them in the standings, and this will be a great opportunity for the good guys to make up a couple of games in the AL East, as well as in the Playoff race.

Rays clear a couple of spots on the 40-man roster

The Rays created some space on the 40-man roster before the game, trading RHP Ryan Garton to Seattle along with Durham catcher Mike Marjama. With the trade, the Rays have opened a pair of spots on their 40-man roster. In exchange, Tampa Bay received LHP Anthony Misiewicz, UTL Luis Rengifo, and a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Garton had been good with Triple-A Durham this season, going 2–0 with a 1.64 ERA. He, however, struggled the past two seasons at the big league level, going 1–3 with a 5.26 ERA.

A mid-season All-Star in the International League, the 28-year-old Marjama hit .272 in 72 games with nine homers this season. The catcher was Rule-5 eligible this past offseason — as are prospects Justin O’Conner and Nick Ciuffo — so the team opted to add Marjama to the 40-man roster as protection in the Rule-5 draft. These moves will create more roster flexibility, while also lessening the off-season logjam behind the plate.

Hmm … might the Rays be looking to acquire a player or two before the August 31 waiver trade deadline? Perhaps. After all, they were looking for a right-handed bat leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. However, it’s more likely that they are clearing space ahead of the activation of Kevin Kiermaier from the 60-day DL.

Another fascinating idea, the team could be creating roster space for Brent Honewell, who might be considered as a September call-up. That being said, Honeywell threw 130 innings between Single-A, Double-A, and the Arizona Fall League last season. Tampa Bay, historically, uses a 20% yearly workload, so he has about 40 innings left in his 2017 campaign at Triple-A Durham. If he was to be promoted this season, he would likely work out of the bullpen to mitigate the number of innings thrown.

Rays look to salvage series after 3-0 loss to the Brewers

By Leave a Comment

The tortured look of a man watching the Rays get no-hit into the sixth inning. (Photo Credit: Ryan Metcalf)

After back-to-back shutout losses to Milwaukee, the Tampa Bay Rays are in salvage mode Sunday afternoon. The Rays have been shut out in back-to-back games for the first time since April 14-15 of last season. During this stretch, Tampa Bay is 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.

It doesn’t help that run producers, like Steven Souza Jr., spat on perfectly placed pitches and don’t pull the trigger.

No Souz, that’s strike three not ball four.

Then again, performing to an ice-cold .154 BABIP on the night, it is safe to say the Brewers summoned the luck dragons before the game. Milwaukee has not pitched back-to-back shutouts on the road since April 2010 at Pittsburgh. What an esteemed honor for Tampa Bay.

With the losses, the Rays fell a game behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot, 2-1/2 back of New York for the lead Wildcard spot, and 5-1/2 back of the Red Sox, who have won five straight. To put it bluntly, they need a win this afternoon.

The New What Next

Chris Archer (8-6, 3.89 ERA, 3.19 FIP) will get the start for the Rays, opposite of Jimmy Nelson (9-5, 3.37 ERA, 3.11 FIP).

Archer saw his streak of six consecutive quality come to an end on Tuesday after he allowed four runs — two of which on a pair of solo homers. He did go six-plus innings, so he has pitched at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts. Archer cruised through the first four innings, giving up just one single. He, however, found himself in deep counts against a team that has struck out the fewest times in all of baseball. That, paired with some loud contact, speaks to the fact that Archer really wasn’t that dominant.

Nelson leads Milwaukee with 13 quality starts on the season, including a 3-2 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday. He has never faced the Rays, although he is 4-2 with a 4.66 ERA in 10 road starts this season. Nelson relies primarily upon a 94 mph worm-burner of a sinker and a whiffy 95 mph four-seam fastball. He also tends to mix in a hard 85 mph curveball, and a fly-ball inducing 80 mph slider. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2, 3B, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-3), Wilson Ramos (2-3, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-2, 3B, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/6/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Smith CF
Hechavarria SS
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— One positive from last night … well, the last nine games, Lucas Duda has reached base in all nine games since joining the team. Per Roger Mooney (Tampa Bay Times) that’s the longest such streak since Akinori Iwamura reached base in his first 12 games in 2007.

— Mooney also wrote about Archer’s game prep going into the finale with the Brewers:

To prepare for today’s start against a team he has never faced, RHP Chris Archer began watching video of the Brewers early in the season. But not just any video: video of batters facing pitchers similar to Archer — hard throwers with above-average sliders, like Nationals RHP Max Scherzer.

Armed with that knowledge, Archer said the second step is to follow the game plan by pitching coach Jim Hickey, which rookie RHP Jacob Faria did in six innings of one-run ball Friday.

“Because we all know that’s his strong suit, is attacking hitters,” Archer said of Faria. “Watching the way Jake attacked (Friday) night, he followed the game plan pretty much to a T and had pretty good results, so looking to duplicate that.”