X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays close to inking new TV deal, albeit a smaller one than expected

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Rays season ticket holders enter the playing field at the Trop on Saturday for the annual, and wildly popular, Rays Fan Fest. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote on Sunday that the Tampa Bay Rays are finally set to sign a long-awaited new local TV deal. Yet while there will be an increase in revenues from the $30-million they made in 2018 — which was among the worst in Major League Baseball — it will not be nearly as much as the team had hoped. The culprit? A sports industry-wide drop in rights fees as fallout from cord-cutting and other issues, or that some of their competitors got previously, writes Topkin.

The deal will be “well, well, well under” the $82-million annual average over 15 years that we wrote about last year. Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg declined to reveal what the exact number is, or how much it could boost payroll or help pay for a new stadium, writes Topkin.

It’s going to be an increase of where we are, Sternberg said, estimating the new deal would rank about 20th in the majors. Much of the reason we’ve spent all that we have is because we knew we had some more revenue (coming) off of TV. Unfortunately, it’s going to fall reasonably short of what we anticipated four years ago.

However, as I wrote previously, there is a reason to pump the brakes on the payroll boost/new stadium point of view.

As Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium, WTSP News) wrote sometime back, the Rays always knew that money was coming. That is, while the team will have new revenue pouring in, it’s plausible that the “new” money will have been budgeted already.

Its likely not “new” revenue that the team is all of a sudden going to commit to payroll or a new stadium; they are revenues the team was already budgeting.

The deal could help the effort to get a new stadium built in the area, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred suggested last week.

It’s an improvement in their revenue stream and that’s always a positive, Manfred said. And I also think it’s reflective of the fact that the Tampa region is a major-league market and we ought to be able to find a way, with the help of the local officials, to make it work there.

As it stands now, the team and Fox worked out a placeholder deal for the 2019 season with hopes that the new pact will be signed, sealed, and delivered sometime during the upcoming season.

Noteworthiness

— Over 11,000 fans attended Rays Fan Fest on Saturday, helping the team to Raise more than $150-thousand for the Rays Baseball Foundation (up approximately $25-thousand over last year).

If you were walking throughout the stadium yesterday, you may have seen artistic renderings of the Left Field Ledge, which is currently under construction. If you didn’t, we’ve got you:

 

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Plans for the LF Ledge. #RaysFanFest2019

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— Per Topkin, the new LED stadium lights, that can be quickly turned on and off, will be an element in walk-off celebrations.

PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays should contend in 2019

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SS Willy Adames is projected to regress according to the 2019 PECOTA projections.

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2019 season. The Rays have been active this offseason, adding a bevy of new players to the fold, such as Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, and Charlie Morton. Because of the acquisitions, PECOTA forecasts Tampa Bay as the fifth best team in the American League, and the third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 86 wins against 76 losses. Should the Rays end the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Here are a few highlights, as the full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

Projected 2019 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 710 runs are fewer than they plated in 2018, yet three runs better than the Royals, who are projected to end the upcoming season 20 games under .500. The projected .246 BA/.319 OBP/.399 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .258 BA/.333 OBP/.406 SLG line collected by the team last season.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fourth fewest runs in the American League at 661 ― 25 fewer than the reigning World Series champions, and one more than the Yankees, Tampa Bay’s closest competitor in that category.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Matt Duffy spending the most time at third base, with Joey Wendle getting the majority of reps at second base, Yandy Diaz at first, and Willy Adames at shortstop. Ji-Man Choi could be the primary designated hitter (45% of the time) with Daniel Robertson also slated to see a significant amount of time at the position as well as all over the infield.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Mike Zunino will get the majority of playing time over Michael Perez (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Kevin Kiermaier is projected to post the highest position player WARp (2.9) in center, and could slash a .252 BA/.322 OBP/.414 SLG line with 14 home runs and 68 runs across 516 plate appearances. His projected WARp, however, is down from a projected 4.0 a season ago.
  • The ever consistent Matt Duffy is projected to be the best hitter on the team, just ahead of Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia, who looks to bounce back from a lackluster 2018 campaign.
  • Tommy Pham and Mike Zunino are projected to combine for 39 homers.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Blake Snell (165 IP, 3.3 WARp), Charlie Morton (148 IP, 2.5 WARp), Tyler Glasnow (130 IP, 2.1 WARp), with a casting call of “openers” ahead of Ryan Yarbrough (118 IP, 0.6 WARp), Jacon Faria (71 IP, 0.2 WARp), and Jalen Beeks (70 IP, 0.8 WARp) among others.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Jose Alvarado (closer), Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo (setup), Oliver Drake, Adam Kolarek, Hunter Wood, Emilio Pagan, Austin Pruitt, Ian Gibaut, Andrew Moore, and Colin Poche — in some variation of the Durham Taxi — as middle-relief.

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 20 runs above average — third best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (27.6 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -28.2 FRAA — worst in the American League.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays ended last season with 90 wins and 72 losses. Their projected 86 win season — 92 or 80, thanks to a six-game margin of error — has got to make us incredibly optimistic for a postseason run.

Rays to sign Avisail Garcia; interested in Matt Davidson

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The Tampa Bay Rays reportedly came to a one-year agreement with outfielder Avisail Garcia on Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays dipped into the offseason free-agent market on Monday, reportedly coming to terms with outfielder Avisail Garcia on a one-year, $3.5-million deal. The deal is pending a physical and includes an addition $2.5-million in incentives.

The Rays have been in the market for a right-handed bat to pair with DH/1B Ji-Man Choi and Garcia fits that description to a large extent. The outfielder was plagued with knee and hamstring issues last season, limiting him to just 93 games in which he slashed a disappointing .236 BA/.281 OBP/.438 SLG/.719 OPS line over 385 plate appearances, with a -4 DRS in the outfield, leading to a modest 0.3 fWAR in spite of his power profile. In 2017, however, Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign, performing to a .330 BA/.380 OBP/.506 SLG/.886 OPS line across 561 plate appearances, with 18 home runs, 80 RBI and a 4.6 fWAR.

Aside from the fact that Garcia is a low-risk, low-cost player, it is difficult to know what to make of him. He was clearly the recipient of the good luck dragons in 2017, posting a .392 BABIP which was an anomaly when compared to his career numbers. As Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) writes, Garcia largely defied the odds.

Garcia struck out at a career-low 19.8 percent clip that season, but he also hit the ball on the ground at a 52.2 percent clip — hardly a trend that is conducive to success for a plodding player who is listed at 6’4″ and 240 pounds.

True to projections, Garcia regressed in 2018, although there are some silver linings, which Adams also noted.

Garcia hit the ball in the air at a career-high 34.4 percent rate, resulting in a clear power surge. Despite having just 385 PAs last season, he clubbed a career-high 19 home runs, and his .202 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was easily a career-high mark as well. Moreover, Garcia’s hard-hit rate jumped from 40.7 percent in 2017 to 43.2 percent in 2018, per Statcast. At the same time, though, Garcia also punched out in a career-worst 26.5 percent of his plate appearances.

The Rays have a crowded outfield chock full of strong defenders like Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows who are slated to receive the bulk of the regular work. This suggests that Garcia will likely see more time at DH and play in the outfield corners only sparingly.

If Garcia can cut back on his strikeouts, while maintaining his hard-contact and fly-ball gains, he could prove to be a cheap source of power next season.

Noteworthiness

— In a tweet, Saturday Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) noted Tampa Bay’s interest in free-agent corner infielder Matt Davidson as a potential two-way player.

Davidson is most known for his offensive prowess. The former top-100 prospect combined for 46 homers with the ChiSox between 2017 and 2018, during which he slashed .224 BA/.291 OBP/.345 SLG/.636 OPS/94 wRC+ across 939 plate appearances. He did fare better last season, posting a 104 wRC+ across 496 PAs and walking a career-high 10.5% (up from 4.3% the season previous), with a .228 BA/.319 OBP/.419 SLG/.738 OPS/.321 wOBA/104 wRC+.

More interestingly though, Davidson factored into Chicago’s bullpen, tossing 3-1/3 innings of one-hit ball in three appearances from June through August.

Davidson has reportedly worked to become a better option on out of the ‘pen since the end of the season, and the White Sox liked what they saw out of the right-hander’s 92 mph fastball. He also displayed a nasty breaking ball, which he used to strike out Rougned Odor and Giancarlo Stanton (seen above). Even so, Chicago chose not to tender Davidson’s projected $2.4-million contract via arbitration.

Davidson’s likely purpose would be to platoon first base with Ji-Man Choi, the projected starter at the position. The left-handed Choi logged tremendous production last season in 221 plate appearances, slashing .280 BA/.372 OBP/.536 SLG/.908 OPS/146 wRC+ with nine homers, 22 runs, 23 RBI and a .256 ISO. Yet Choi played sparingly left-handed pitchers, while Davidson destroyed southpaws, suggesting a platoon at first.

Rays come to terms with Zunino, Duffy, and Roe; Pham headed to arbitration

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Three out of four ain’t bad. The Rays came to terms with all of their arbitration-eligible players but Tommy Pham on Friday.

The arbitration deadline passed on Friday, as the Tampa Bay Rays were able to agree to terms with three of their four eligible players: Mike Zunino, Matt Duffy, and Chaz Roe. The Rays, however, were unable to come to terms with outfielder Tommy Pham. The two sides will now go to an arbitration case, on an unspecified date, in February.

Zunino, who was acquired in the trade for Mallex Smith with Seattle, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. The catcher was projected to earn $4.2-million in 2019, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Also in his second year of arbitration eligibility, Duffy was projected to earn $2.6-million. Roe — who is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time — was projected to earn $1.4-million.

Pham, who boasted a .343 BA/.448 OBP/.622 SLG/1.070 slash line across 39 games with the Rays (while performing to an overall 4.0 fWAR) after he was acquired from the St. Louis at last season’s non-waiver trade deadline, earned $570,100 in 2018 as a pre-arbitration eligible player. The outfielder turned down a two-year deal from the Cardinals and reportedly wasn’t happy with the figures he was being offered for the season, but eventually signed in order to play, writes Adam Sanford (DRaysBay).

Pham had not been shy about his treatment by the Cardinals’ front office during his time with St. Louis. He, most recently, made headlines for criticizing the Rays’ fanbase support — or lack thereof — in an interview with SiriusXM on December 27, saying the team has “really no fan base at all.”

It isn’t yet known how far apart the two sides are.

Noteworthiness

— Per Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors), the Rays are one of six teams still in on catcher J.T. Realmuto. It, however, appears the Dodgers may be (the) most motivated to land the backstop.

— Consider this our annual open call for writers and contributors to X-Rays Spex! Do you have writing chops that, in the very least, can be honed, a love of the Rays, and an urge to geek out on a new hobby? Are you familiar with WordPress, or open to learning how to use this incredibly simple platform? If you answered yes to those questions, then please get in touch with a sample of your writing at belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com.

Rays re-acquire Oliver Drake; designate Jamie Schultz for assignment

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The Rays re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Tampa Bay Rays announced that they re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Rays initially claimed Drake off waivers in November, yet designated him for assignment a couple of weeks later. Meanwhile, after being claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays, Toronto designated Drake for assignment last week in order to open a spot on the roster for southpaw Clayton Richard. In order to open a spot for Drake on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay announced that right-hander Jaime Schultz has been designated for assignment.

Drake, 31, hasn’t had much success in his brief big league career, however, there are reasons to believe he could succeed in the near future. The right-hander has been rather unlucky over the past couple of seasons, having been staked to a .353 BABIP, albeit with an exceptional 47% swinging strike percentage. Drake worked to a 2.21 ERA with an impressive 3.3 K/BB ratio and a 50% ground-ball rate across 20-1/3 innings with the Twins — the only team with which he found real success.

Drake also saw MLB action with four other teams in 2018 (Blue Jays, Angels, Indians, Brewers), and he’s seen time with six Major League clubs over the past two seasons. Drake is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with Tampa Bay (or another club) next spring or else be exposed to waivers yet again.

Schultz, 27, was once considered one of Tampa Bay’s most promising MiLB arms. However, he struggled to a 5.64 ERA in 30-1/3 innings last season. Even though he racked up 35 strikeouts in the time, struggled mightily with command, issuing 17 walks and hit three batters. The right-hander also underperformed in Durham last season and hasn’t been able to consistently avoid a bloated walk rate in the upper minors.