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The New What Next: Athletics vs Yankees — a Wildcard game preview

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The AL Wildcard game takes place Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. (Photo Credit: Oakland Athletics)

The New York Yankees will host the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wildcard game Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Oakland will send right-hander Liam Hendriks to the mound as the opener, while New York will oppose with right-hander Luis Severino. Each team won three games in the 2018 season series.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Athletics were 34-36 (.486) at the conclusion of play on June 15, and 11 games out in the Wildcard race. Yet from that point on they went 63-29 (.685) and ended up seven games ahead of the third place team in the Wildcard race (the Rays).

The keys to their success? The bullpen — like the Rays, Athletics manager Bob Melvin utilized the opener/long reliever model to great effect — and a high slugging powered offense. Oakland ranked second in the big leagues in doubles (322) and extra-base hits (569), third in home runs (227), fourth in runs (813) and slugging (.439), and fifth in OPS (.764).

True, the Yankees have scored more runs and hit more homers than the Athletics, yet they are a single faceted team in a sense because they depend heavily on the home run. Because of it, they can be pitched to and tend to strike out a lot. Expect Melvin to lean on groundball hurlers that can keep the ball in the park.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Oakland has averaged 5.02 runs per game this season, ranking fourth in all of baseball, while the pitching staff features a 3.81 team ERA, good for 11th in the Majors.

New York’s powerful lineup averaged 5.25 runs per game this season, ranking second in the big leagues. However, the Yankees have underperformed the Athletics in the second half of the season.

Pitching Probables

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Liam Hendriks served as an opener in eight of his 25 regular-season appearances, logging a 2.08 ERA and 2.33 K/BB across 8-2/3 innings in those outings. Hendricks has worked to a 0.00 ERA/2.06 FIP/0.190 OBA/.250 BABIP/0.79 FIP over the last 14 days, with a 56.3 GB% and a 37.5% FB%. He has not given up a homer over that stretch (6-1/3 innings overall). Hendriks is 2-2 with a 6.32 ERA in career nine appearances (two starts) against the Yankees. Key Matchups: Greg Bird (1-2, 2B), Brett Gardner (1-2), Didi Gregorious (1-2), Andrew McCutchen (2-5, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI), Giancarlo Stanton (1-2)

Oakland will use its bullpen for the entire game. After Hendriks, the Athletics could turn to either Mike Fiers or Trevor Cahill in a long relief role. Fiers had been solid across 30 starts this season, performing to a 3.56 ERA, while Cahill registered a 3.76 ERA across 110 innings of work. The A’s bullpen ranked third in the big leagues with a terrific 3.37 ERA on the season.

Luis Severino had some rough patches this season yet still finished the season with a 3.39 ERA, backed up by excellent strikeout (28.2%) and walk (5.9%) rates. He finished the season strong, allowing just four runs in 17-2/3 innings over his final three starts. He’ll look to shake the memory of his performance in last season’s AL Wildcard game against Minnesota when he allowed three runs while getting just one single out. Severino is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in four career starts against the Athletics. Key Matchups: Matt Joyce (1-4, 2 BB), Ramon Laureano (1-2, 2B), Jed Lowrie (6-11, 3 RBI), Jonathan Lucroy (1-2), Chad Pinder (1-4, RBI), Stephen Piscotty (1-2, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Congratulations to Colorado for a big, extra-inning NL Wildcard win on Wednesday. The Rockies will move on to yet another area code (but same time zone) where they’ll face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.

Rays 9/24/18 pregame notes; Carlos Gomez fined

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Diego Castillo is lined up to open for the Rays tonight.

After finishing their final road trip of the season on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to begin a four-game series against the New York Yankees. At 87-68  on the season, Tampa Bay can move to 20 games above .500 for the first time this season with a win.

Tampa Bay needs to win at least three of the final seven games to get to 90 for the first time since 2013. Two more wins would help the Rays reach 50 at home. Per Neil Solondz, so far only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have won 50 games in their home ballpark.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying to stay ahead of Oakland for the top Wildcard spot, as they look to host that game.

The New What Next

Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jonathan Holder (1-3, 2.97 ERA), not Luis Severino as previously thought. This could likely be due, in part, to lining up their Wildcard starter properly. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings.

Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Holder has faced the Rays on five occasions and has allowed runs in two of those outings.

Rays 9/24/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Duffy 3B
Choi DH
Pham LF
Wendle SS
Lowe 2B
Meadows RF
Bauers 1B
Ciuffo C
Castillo RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier, who banged his shoulder on a catch yesterday and aggravated it on a check swing, is available off the bench today. Willy Adames is sick for the second straight day, although he too is available.

— Carlos Gomez was fined by Major League Baseball for comments about umpire Andy Fletcher, although he plans to appeal. Gomez did not disclose the amount of the fine saying, “I don’t think it’s fair,” yet sources say it was for $10,000.

You can read more about what led up to the fine below.

LBWMF: Rays punish Blue Jays, 11-3; Andy Fletcher’s liberal strike zone

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

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Tommy Pham scored on a sixth-inning double by CJ Cron on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following their 5-2 win in the road finale against the Blue Jays on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field ahead of a four-game series against the New York Yankees. In spite of the two tough losses in Toronto, the Rays won five of seven during their last road trip of the season. The Yankees took two of three from the lowly Orioles, yet fell 6-3 on Sunday. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 10-10 over a 20-game stretch.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

There is still a way the Rays can make it to the playoffs, albeit one that is absolutely improbable: Tampa Bay must win all seven games on their homestand against the Yankees and Blue Jays, while the Athletics must lose the final six games of their season. The odds of that happening are astronomical, to say the least.

Still, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) opined, the Rays might be motivated to make life tough on the rival Yankees, who are trying to keep the home-field advantage in the AL Wildcard game. On top of that, the team has a chance to finish with 90-plus wins, thus defying even the bullish 85-win PECOTA projection from February. And while that may not offer much solace to the casual fan, two things bear mentioning:

  1. The Rays are a young team with a high upside for years to come. A successful season at the big league level will go a long way for the kids.
  2. The last time the Rays put together a 90+ win campaign without the benefit of a trip to the playoffs (in 2012), they played relevant games past September 30 the following season — a game 163 tie-breaker, and the subsequent Wildcard win thrust them into the ALDS against Boston.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As has been the case for the second half of the season (.268 BA/.346 OBP/.430 SLG/.776 OPS/.336 wOBA/115 +wRC for Tampa Bay vs .242 BA/.326 OBP/.424 SLG/.750 OPS/.325 wOBA/103 wRC+ for New York) the Rays have outperformed the Yankees offensively over the last 14 days. The question begs, however: Can the Rays continue their recent dominance over the Yankees? Tampa Bay has won eight of the last 10 games against the Bronx Bummers after starting the season 0-5. Moreover, the Rays are 5-1 against the Yankees at home.

Pitching Probables

Note: It is rather difficult to project who will take the mound over the life of the series since only one hurler has been named; Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open the series for the Rays. Beyond that, it’s a reasonable assumption the below-listed hurlers will toe the rubber for dueling foes this week, based on when they last pitched. This projection is in no way, shape, or form set in stone. I will make note of any changes as they are announced, either in this series preview or in subsequent articles.

Kevin Cash could lean primarily on Ryan Yarbrough (15-5, 3.88 ERA), Yonny Chirinos (4-5, 3.68 ERA), Jalen Beeks (5-1, 5.36 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA) over the next four days. Aaron Boone could counter with Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (12-5, 3.67 ERA), CC Sabathia (8-7, 3.77 ERA), and Lance Lynn (9-10, 4.80 ERA).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Diego Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Ryan Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Luis Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Yonny Chirinos tossed 4-2/3 scoreless innings, yet took a no-decision on Thursday, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out five. After the “opener” Ryne Stanek allowed three straight hits to start the second inning, Chirinos came in and shut the Blue Jays down. The 24-year-old now owns a 3.68 ERA and would’ve earned the victory had it not been for a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed five earned runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out three across four innings on Thursday against the Red Sox. Tanaka never got comfortable on the mound, allowing at least one earned run in three of the four innings he completed. It was his highest earned run total since August 10, and the first time he has not worked at least five innings in his last eight turns. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA against the Rays this season, including a complete game shutout on July 24. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-6, 2B), Carlos Gomez (3-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (7-22, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2, 2B), Tommy Pham (2-3, 2B, RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

CC Sabathia allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five across six innings in a win against Baltimore on Friday. The southpaw surrendered a two-run single in the fifth inning but exited the ballgame with a four-run lead after throwing 59 of 97 pitches for strikes (61% strike rate). Sabathia was coming off a seven-run, 2-1/3 inning outing — his shortest start of the season. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 135 strikeouts through 148 innings this season. Sabathia is 0-2 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, RBI), Matt Duffy (5-9, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (9-21, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Adam Moore (1-2)  

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite giving up three runs in six innings. He allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while fanning six. The right-hander gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on Rowdy Tellez’s two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. Glasnow notched his fourth quality start in five outings although he is 1-5 in his last six turns.

Lance Lynn didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) in five innings. He allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out four along the way. Lynn has worked either five or six innings and given up two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. He has done just enough to eat innings at the back end of New York’s rotation with questionable depth. In spite of a 4.80 ERA and 4.39 BB/9 on the season, he’s fanned 9.20 batters per nine across 153-2/3 innings. Lynn last faced the Rays on April 20, in a 6 IP/7 H/5 R/5 BB outing. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-2, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3) 

Tampa Bay Rays 9/24/18 pregame notes, etc

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In spite of a quality start by Tyler Glasnow, the Rays bats couldn’t provide any run support on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tyler Glasnow provided a quality start, yet took the loss for the second straight time in Toronto, as the Blue Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays, 5-2, on Saturday afternoon. They look to bounce back and split the series with AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell on the mound.

The Rays got within a run in the seventh inning when Jesus Sucre delivered his first homer of the season, which followed a third-inning solo homer by Tommy Pham. Yet the bats went cold as they left a lot of chicken on the bone — going 0-5 wRISP.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need help from the Twins on Sunday, as they sit 7.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 8 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

Even if we win out, I don’t see Oakland losing six games anyway, Rays third baseman Matt Duffy said. I’ve been saying it for a while — we understand the situation.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (20-5, 1.97 ERA) will make his final road start of the season, pitching opposite of Ryan Borucki (4-4, 3.86 ERA).

Snell allowed one hit across five scoreless innings in a win over Texas on Tuesday, striking out five and walking two. Snell was stellar once again, earning his eighth consecutive win and his 20th win of his 2018 campaign. He became just the second Rays pitcher to tally 20 wins in a season (David Price won 20 games in 2012) and he’s the only pitcher thus far to reach the mark in the majors this season. Snell also became just the 12th pitcher this year to break the 200-strikeout threshold, doing so in only 169 innings pitched. The southpaw’s 1.97 ERA trails only Jacob deGrom (1.78) in the majors and his .179 batting average against leads all starting pitchers.

Snell told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s so serious about not wanting to hear, read or think about what he has done that when his mom started texting him links to stories and video clips after he won his 20th Tuesday, he blocked her on his phone. His own mom!

I don’t want to hear it, he said. I know I’m going to reply to my mom, so the only way I’m not is if I don’t see it. So I gave it a couple hours where I couldn’t see it, she had no clue, and then I unblocked her. Having to do that was funny in a way, and weird ’cause it was my mother, but I just don’t like hearing it.

Borucki threw eight scoreless innings on Monday, allowing three hits and one walk while striking out seven across eight innings. Borucki kept the Orioles off the board, eventually exiting the game after throwing 105 pitches (67 strikes, 64% K/BB). He’s been a reliable starter in 15 starts this season, owning a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 57 strikeouts across 84 innings. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits on two walks in his last start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI)

Rays 9/23/18 Starting Lineup

Smith RF
Pham LF
Duffy 3B
Cron DH
Wendle SS
Lowe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Bauers 1B
Sucre C
Snell LHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

Noteworthiness

— Per Topkin, OF Carlos Gomez said he had not heard anything yet from Major League Baseball officials after his Twitter rant and comments criticizing home-plate umpire Andy Fletcher stemming from a called third strike and ejection on Thursday. MLB tends to look closely at those situations, and a fine or suspension would seem possible. Gomez said he wasn’t worried and would appeal any disciplinary action.

LBWMF: Rays punish Blue Jays, 11-3; Andy Fletcher’s liberal strike zone

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Austin Meadows collected three hits in his debut with the Rays Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays struck early and often Friday night, bouncing back from a soul-crushing loss to defeat the Toronto Blue Jays, 11-3.

We’ve got a bunch of guys who are quick to forget a loss, manager Kevin Cash said. They bounced right back and put pressure on the defense and the pitchers right out of the gate.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need help from the Twins and Orioles this weekend, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Athletics and 8 games behind the Yankees with 9 games remaining.

Austin Meadows, the 23-year-old outfielder that was acquired at the trade deadline in the Chris Archer deal, came up big, collecting three hits while driving in three and scoring twice. Meadows replaced Ji-Man Choi, who was pulled due to a knee soreness in the sixth inning and singled in his first at-bat, cashing in a pair of runs, before he swiped second and scored later in the inning.

In the inning that followed, Meadows drove in Mallex Smith from second when a ground ball found its way through a hole in the left side of the infield. Two batters later, he came around to score when Joey Wendle doubled to center.

Meadows finished the night 3-for-3 with a pair of singles and a one-out double in the ninth.

I felt pretty good up in the box (Thursday night), Meadows said. I thought I felt good as well tonight. … I was able to pull out three hits right there and help the team.

Smith affected the outcome once more, reaching base three times and scoring two runs while plating one. He was pulled from the game in the seventh inning with an ankle injury that he sustained running into the outfield wall to make a catch in the fifth.

The defensive change was a precautionary move as Rays manager Kevin Cash expects Smith to be in the lineup Saturday afternoon.

Tommy Pham continued to prove his worth in the lineup, pushing his on-base streak to 23 games with a 2-for-3 night, which included a pair of walks, two RBI and a run scored.

After the game, Pham spoke to why he has been so productive in spite of getting banged up since the trade deadline:

I’ve been driving the ball. There haven’t been as many ground balls as earlier in the season. I think that’s key for me, using the whole field because I hit the ball hard, and when I use the whole field, it’s kind of hard to defend.

According to Aaron Rose (MLB.com) Pham has increased his average launch angle by 2.9 degrees since joining the Rays on July 31, according to Statcast™. Coming into Friday night, it had led to 10.6 percent fewer ground balls and an OPS 286 points higher than the .730 he posted with St. Louis this season.

All told, the Rays plated 11 runs on 15 hits and eight walks, again without the benefit of hitting any homers.

The New What Next

Tyler Glasnow (2-6, 4.22 ERA) will get the start for the Rays on Saturday after a disastrous seven-run, two-thirds inning performance in his last start against Toronto. He’ll pitch opposite of Thomas Pannone (3-1, 3.77).

Tyler Glasnow allowed the only hits on the night and struck out six over six scoreless innings, allowing the right-hander to pick up his first victory with Tampa Bay in nine starts. The only other baserunner against Glasnow came on a one-out hit by pitch of Rougned Odor in the first inning. Odor later swiped second base and moved up 90 feet on a wild pitch. He, however, struck out Adrian Beltre with two outs to escape the threat.

After the rough first inning, Glasnow found a rhythm on the mound and retired the next 11 batters he faced — taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

But with two outs In the bottom of the fifth, the right-hander allowed an infield single to Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Texas’ first hit on the night.

Be that as it may, outside of a bad start against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5, in which he allowed seven runs and lasted just two-thirds of an inning, Glasnow has been strong for the Rays, allowing one run or fewer in five of his nine starts, and yielding two hits or fewer in five starts.

He was outstanding. I liked everything, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. I thought he was out of rhythm in the first inning, and I thought he did a nice job of kind of calming the situation down, getting the ball over the plate. He had the breaking balls, the fastballs going, and he threw some changeups. … He’s done just outstanding. The runs he’s given up, it seems like they come off solo home runs a lot, which is fine. Keeping guys off base, and if they’re going to get you, you’d rather it be a solo shot. With the exception of Toronto, we’ve been in every single game. He’s given us an opportunity to win every single game that he’s been out there.

Thomas Pannone allowed two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six across seven innings on Sunday. Pannone got off to a shaky start after giving up two runs in the first inning, though he managed to bounce back and finish his day with six consecutive scoreless frames. The 24-year-old has appeared in just 10 games this season for Toronto (four starts) and owns a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 21 punchouts through 31 innings. Pannone has appeared in two games against the Rays this season, allowing two runs on four hits across 2-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Joey Wendle (1-2, 2B)

Rays 9/22/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Pham LF
Duffy 3B
Cron 1B
Wendle 2B
Adames SS
Meadows RF
Gomez DH
Sucre C
Glasnow RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

Noteworthiness

— Ji-Man Choi is not expected to start Saturday.

— After being tossed from Thursday’s game, Carlos Gomez went to the clubhouse and posted several tweets criticizing the performance of home plate umpire Andy Fletcher. Gomez didn’t back down Friday, accusing Fletcher of missing “more than 30” pitches.

He’s the one that should have been thrown out last night because he’s the only one who didn’t do his job, Gomez said.

Gomez will likely be punished by the league, although he does have a point. Fletcher did have a rather liberal strike zone Thursday night as illustrated by Brooks Baseball.

Note: green “dots” are balls, red “dots” are strikes.