X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Rays offense comes back to life in 6-4 win over the Jays

By Leave a Comment

A celebration on the infield for the first time in five days. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Good times for a change
See, the luck I’ve had
Can make a good man
Turn bad…
— Steven Patrick Morrissey, the Smiths

On Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays snapped their four-game losing streak with a momentum building 6-4 win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Southpaw Blake Snell finally earned his first win of the season, while Wilson Ramos hit his second homer in as many days.

Tampa Bay got on the board in the third inning following Daniel Robertson’s leadoff single to center. Two batters later, Lucas Duda sent a first-pitch hanging changeup, over the inner third of the plate, into right field to put the Rays up by one.

Prior to the ball game, Wilson Ramos spoke about making a tweak in his batting stance, and how he was starting to feel better at the plate — something his solo homer on Monday hinted at. There must be some truth to what he said, because on Tuesday night he made it back-to-back games with a home run after he lashed a fourth-inning liner just over the wall in left field.

Ramos continued to collect hits, and consequently went 3-4 with a run, an RBI and a walk. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come in the latter half of the season from the backstop … and none to soon.

Then two batters after Adeiny Hechavarria doubled to right, Corey Dickerson sent an RBI single to deep center, plating the Rays fourth run of the night.

Tampa Bay added to its lead an inning later, thanks in part to Marco Estrada’s lack of command. After Ramos, Logan Morrison, and Steven Souza Jr. hit three singles to load the bases, Estrada walked Adeiny Hechavarria on four pitches to drive in a run. The right-hander followed that with another RBI walk, this time to Robertson, scoring the Rays sixth run.

All told, the Rays scored six runs on 13 hits, five walks, and two errors. Equally as important though Morrison, Souza, Ramos and Robertson each put together multi-hit games. The Rays are just a month removed from being one of baseballs top five run scoring teams, and perhaps this is a harbinger of good things to come.

On the mound, Snell worked to a 6 IP/4 ER/7 H/1 BB/4 K line, which doesn’t look too impressive until you dig a little deeper.

The first run against Snell came on a weak blooper that dropped between Souza and Smith, which took a strange bounce off the turf and was misplayed by the duo — allowed Steve Pearce to score from first. The gaffe, though technically not an error, gives credence to the idea that both Souza and Smith are not only pressing at the plate, but also in the field.

From there the left-hander locked it in, forcing weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Things got hairy for Snell in the bottom of the fifth. After Darwin Barney hit a single up the middle, and Jose Bautista looped a double into right, the red hot Josh Donaldson took him deep to right field on a fastball on the outside corner of the plate.

Credit Donaldson for being able to power a pitch on the periphery of the zone.

Yet Snell limited the damage, and got out of the inning with the lead intact. He came back out in the sixth inning and worked around an awkward catcher’s interference call on Ramos to throw his fourth goose egg upon the scoreboard.

Steve Cishek, Tommy Hunter and Alex Colome held Toronto scoreless over the final three frames, working to a combined 3 IP/1 H/2 K line.

The Rays won a must win game, 6-4, and look to build on the W Wednesday night.

The New What Next

Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA, 3.63 FIP) will take the mound for the Rays, pitching opposite of Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.75 FIP).

Faria was perfect through the front four innings against Cleveland on Friday, before he allowed a career-high five runs — on a homer and four horrendous fielding gaffes by Wilson Ramos and Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller. It was just the second time in his previous 12 big league starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He has gone six or more innings in 10 of those starts.

Stroman was excellent his last time out, although poor defense led to four unearned runs. The right-hander gave up all four runs in the third inning against Pittsburgh, but he shut the Pirates’ bats down the rest of the way. After struggling over a pair of recent starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 14-2/3 innings of work to lower his ERA from 3.19 to 3.00. Overall, he has generated a huge ground ball rate with his sinking fastball, and he is capable of working deeply into each game. The Rays couldn’t get much started against Stroman in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, tagging him for just three runs over 13-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/16/17 Starting Lineup

Miller 2B
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Robertson SS
Dickerson LF
Bourjos CF
Smith RF
Sucre C
Faria RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) went 0-3 with a strikeout while playing five innings for advanced Class-A Charlotte in his return to rehab. He is eyeing a return to the big league squad this weekend.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly felt better playing catch at Tropicana Field and will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday. If all goes as planned, he could rejoin the starting rotation next week.

— Matt Andriese (hip) will make the second rehab start Friday with the Stone Crabs in Port Charlotte. He is slated to make one more after that.

Deep thoughts on the Rays offensive slump (and no, you can’t blame Shelton this time)

By Leave a Comment

Chris Archer was hit by a Giovanny Urshela comebacker in the fifth inning on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

After being shut out for the second consecutive game — and the fifth time in eight games — the Tampa Bay Rays look to split the four-game series against Cleveland in a matinee ball game this afternoon.

The Rays prolonged offensive slump continued Saturday evening against a hurler that had performed to a 15.00 ERA/5.81 FIP over the last 14-days. Yet here were are Sunday, in the waning hours leading up to the first pitch, and things will not get any easier this afternoon against one of the best pitchers in the league. The Rays have now scored just eight runs in eight games — becoming the first team to do so since the Dodgers in 2012 (June 23–30). They are hitting .175 during this prolonged stretch, and are 2-for-35 wRISP. Tampa Bay is at .500 for the first time since June 16th.

I will never imply that Derek Shelton was better equipped to be the Rays hitting coach than Chad Mottola. In fact, the players appear to respond better to Mottola than they did to Shelton. However, with Shelton out of the way, there’s no scapegoating the team’s lack of offensive production, nor can we blame any member of the coaching staff for the team’s collective woes. Simply put, the league has adjusted to the Rays’ free swinging ways, and the Rays haven’t adjusted back. When you attempt to launch every pitch into the outfield stands, and you change your launch angle so you can create some lift, you expose yourself to strikeouts as well as weak grounders and fly balls. That’s especially true when pitchers try to avoid the homer juice zone between 2-1/2 feet and four feet above the ground.

Take Logan Morrison for example. He has seen his fly ball rate fluctuate from 37.1% in April, to 52.9% in May, 47.1% in June, 47.8% in July, and finally 44.8% in August. It’s no coincidence that he hit a monthly high-watermark 10 home runs in May, when he had a higher FB% and hit the ball harder.

To their credit, the Rays are still in the playoff hunt … but just barely. The two Wildcard spots are for the taking, and in the last five days, five different teams have held a share of second AL Wildcard spot; the AL Wildcard leader has changed hands in seven straight days. However, if Tampa Bay cannot take advantage of the chances the are given, it’s all for not.

The New What Next

Austin Pruitt (6-3, 5.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP) will start for the Rays this afternoon, toeing the rubber opposite of Corey Kluber (10-3, 2.65 ERA, 2.43 FIP).

Pruitt nearly matched Chris Sale, working around a leadoff double to start the game, and facing just one over the minimum over the first three frames. Boston was able to touch the right-hander for a one-run rally, but he limited the damage, and worked around any trouble all night. Pruitt scattered seven hits (only one to the pull side) and one walk, while fanning five and holding the Red Sox to 0-for-8 wRISP.

Kluber pitched Cleveland to victory with his second consecutive complete-game performance in his last turn. He allowed one run on three hits with no walks and 11 punch outs against the Rockies on Tuesday. Kluber now has 13 straight starts with eight-plus strikeouts. Even though he missed a month on the DL due to a back injury, the right-hander ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 172 strikeouts over 132-2/3 innings. Since his return, the 31-year-old is 7-1 with a 1.70 ERA over 13 starts. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-9, 2 2B), Evan Longoria (7-20, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Trevor Plouffe (13-46, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI)

You can read about the series, and so much more, in our preview.

Rays 8/13/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Sucre C
Pruitt RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier went 0-for-4 with a run scored yesterday for the Charlotte Stone Crabs as the DH in his first post-back strain rehab game. Kiermaier will DH again today and Matt Andriese will make a rehab start on the mound.

— Just how historic has this slump been?

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Yankees — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays finished off an otherwise disappointing home stand by taking two of three big games from the Orioles. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Ladies and gentlemen, introducing the gauntlet. The Tampa Bay Rays are about to embark on a stretch of 17 consecutive games without an off-day, with the next 11 coming against playoff contenders. First stop the Bronx, where the Rays will take on the Yankees in a four-game series that will likely have postseason implications.

Tampa Bay finished off an otherwise disappointing 2-4 home stand by taking two of three big games from the Orioles. New York has won three in a row, including six of its past eight. The two are separated by a game in the standings as both chase the first-place Red Sox in the AL East, and both contend for a Wildcard spot.

On the subject of this gauntlet of a stretch, Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) said it best:

The next three weeks will be critical in deciding the Rays playoff hopes, as a prolonged slump could lead them being dismissed early, while a sudden winning streak could see them surge to the top of the standings.

… And it all starts Friday night.

(Stats: ESPN)

Evan Longoria told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) that he is excited for the challenge ahead:

It’s going to be fun. Going on the road and playing teams in first place or in playoff contention is fun. I feel like this team is really built for that. We play well on the road, and it seems like when we go and play tough teams, we’re able to rise to the occasion.

This will be pretty indicative of what type of team we are and definitely get a feel for how we can play under pressure.

While it may be fun — and the Rays do tend to play better when they are faced with a challenge — the fact of the matter is that they have not performed well in the Bronx this season, going 0-3 at New Yankee Stadium, and 4-5 against the Bronx Bummers overall. Then again, the Rays did take 2-of-3 from the Yankees, the last time they faced them in May.

While it was encouraging for Tampa Bay to average five runs per game over the last two games, the team desperately needs the bats of Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison to come back to life.

For Dickerson, that means limiting the amount he swings outside of the zone, thus forcing pitchers like CC Sabathia (who he will face Friday) back over the plate. Consider that Dickerson made contact with 74% of pitches outside of the zone to start the season. Since slipping into this extended funk though, that percentage has dropped to 71.9% overall. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has ballooned from 18.8% at the start of May, to 23.6% currently. Dickerson has taken a few walks of late, a sign that he’s starting to see the ball a little better. But, he hasn’t had a hit in his last 17 plate appearances (extending back to 7/21, when he went 3-for-4 against Oakland). Without the productive bat of Colby Rasmus to lean upon, LoMo and Dickerson have become that much more important in the Rays lineup … yet they haven’t been there of late. Hopefully that short porch in right field is enticing enough for the two of them to hammer a few bombs over the span of this series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will depend upon Chris Archer (7-6, 3.77 ERA, 3.10 FIP), a pitcher to be determined before Friday’s ball game, Blake Snell (0-6, 4.86 ERA, 5.08 FIP), and Jacob Faria (5-1, 2.67 ERA, 3.65 FIP) over the next four days. Joe Girardi will counter with CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.44 ERA, 4.19 FIP), Masahiro Tanaka (7-9, 5.37 ERA, 4.92 FIP), Caleb Smith (0-0, 9.82 ERA, 2.88 FIP), and Jordan Montgomery (7-2, 3.92 ERA, 4.07 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer was electric against the Orioles on Monday, but took his fourth loss after he uncorked two wild pitches which allowed the go ahead run to score all the way from second. Archer, however, has made five consecutive quality starts and has gone at least six innings in 12 straight starts. New York typically has trouble against Archer, who has posted a 2.73 ERA against the Yankees and held them to a .202 batting average.

Sabathia, the swarthy left-hander, has won two of his three starts since coming off the 10-day DL at the beginning of July. His most recent outing came against Seattle, in which he threw five innings of one run ball, while allowing four hits. He struck out five. The southpaw has fared well against Tampa Bay of late. The Yankees are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak against Rays in his starts, and in the past two-plus years, Sabathia is 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (3-11, 2B, RBI, BB), Peter Bourjos (4-15, BB), Evan Longoria (30-74, 9 2B, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 15 BB), Logan Morrison (2-3), Trevor Plouffe (6-23, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (6-16, HR, RBI, BB)

TBA

Tanaka has pitched better since a poor string of starts in May, yet he lost his last two starts against the Brewers and the Red Sox. In his most recent outing, he allowed four runs over six innings against Seattle, yet earned a win. Tanaka has not been very good against the Rays this season, lasting just 5-2/3 innings in two starts, and allowing 13 runs on 17 hits — including Opening Day, when he allowed seven earned runs in 2-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-18, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-3, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (3-12, 2B), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Mallex Smith (1-2), Jesus Sucre (1-2, 2B, RBI) 

Snell pitched well against the Orioles on Monday, throwing two batters into the eighth inning and — much to the surprise of some, and the chagrin of others — rarely found himself in trouble with any of Baltimore’s batters. The southpaw worked over the outside of the plate against righties with fastballs and changeups, although he wasn’t afraid to come inside from time to time. Snell stayed in control of his stuff for all seven-plus innings of his start — and yes, that includes the two hits he allowed in the top of the eighth (a single to left by Rubén Tejada, and a bunt single by Joey Rickard that rolled back into play). The Yankees have chased Snell early in his starts, but without much damage. He has a 2.38 ERA against New York in five starts but has lasted only 22-2/3 innings.

Smith couldn’t make it through four innings in his first big league start against Seattle on Sunday, allowing four runs on five hits over 3-2/3 innings. The southpaw has primarily relied upon a 93 mph four-seam fastball with slight arm-side run and some added backspin, a whiffy 81 mph slider, and a firm 84 mph changeup.

Faria has pitched well since being promoted from Triple-A Durham, posting quality starts in eight of nine starts. He bounced back with an impressive 7-1/3 inning start — his longest outing since he went eight for Montgomery at the end of 2015. There was a legitimate fear of familiarity with Faria facing the Orioles for the third time this season, yet the right-hander scattered seven hits, walked two and struck out five; holding the birds to 1-for-6 wRISP. His pitch mix kept the Orioles off balance, and though Baltimore made some noise with loud, hard contact, defensive luck — with those balls finding gloves not gaps — kept Faria in the black.

Montgomery carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his most recent start against the Reds. He, however, was pulled from the game after tossing just 85 pitches, after he allowed one run on two hits, while fanning six. Montgomery made his big league debut against the Rays in April and allowed three runs on five hits (including a homer) over 4-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (1-2), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Daniel Robertson and Kevin Kiermaier will start their rehab assignments with the Charlotte Stone Crabs on Thursday. Kiermaier is on track to return in early to mid August.

— Diego Moreno was activated from the DL yesterday, then optioned to Triple-A Durham. However, since the Rays needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster for the newly acquired Dan Jennings, Moreno has been designated for assignment.

— Austin Pruitt has been added to the taxi squad and will start Friday for the Rays in New York.

LBWMF: Rays extend win streak to three with 5-2 win over the Twins

By Leave a Comment

Daniel Robertson (photographed) made another defensive gem in last night’s game. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Logan Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Souza Jr. led the offensive charge Friday night, while Chris Archer dominated Minnesota over six of his 7-2/3 innings of work, helping the Tampa Bay Rays win against the Twins, 5–2.

As they havedone all season, the Rays took an early lead in a fourth inning rally that started with Corey Dickerson’s leadoff single to center against starter Hector Santiago. Logan Morrison, two batters later, lined a two-run bullet to right field for a two-run advantage.

Morrison now leads the team with 34 RBI, and has homered in his last four games at Target Field.

Unwilling to just sit on the two-run lead, Tampa Bay widened the gap in the sixth inning. Two batters after Morrison worked a one-out walk, chasing Santiago, Kevin Kiermaier lined a two-run homer to right off reliever Ryan Pressly, extending the lead to four runs.

Minnesota, however, made a valiant effort to get on the board in the seventh against Archer, whose fastball command began to lapse. Joe Mauer singled hard to center to lead off the frame, although the Rays’ ace was able to bounce back and strikeout Miguel Sano. Archer uncorked a pair of of wild pitches, allowing Mauer to move second and third, before Max Kepler popped out to short for the second out of the frame. But just one out away from getting out of the jam unscathed, Kennys Vargas singled to shallow right-center for an RBI hit to bring the Twins within three.

The ball landed about 23 feet away from, and out of the reach of, a diving Souza.

Yet Souza had the final laugh in the top of the eighth when answered by lifting a bomb into the second deck of the left-field stands off Matt Belisle.

Archer — who struck out the side in the first, and only allowed an infield hit over the first six innings — was unable to get out of the bottom of the eighth. Call it the curse of the third and fourth times through the order.

Eddie Rosario doubled to left to start the inning. He struck out the next two batters before Brian Dozier singled through the shift to left-center, scoring Rosario to again bring the Twins within three. Cash pulled Archer after he walked Mauer.

That’s not to take anything from Archer, who otherwise was superb. The right-hander struck out 11 over 7-2/3 innings and allowed just a walk and five hits. It was his fourth double-digit strikeout game in his last five starts (his 22nd overall).

Archer credited the work of Derek Norris behind the plate:

First and foremost, Norris called a great game back there, Archer said. We talked about doing specific things prior to the game and it worked out really well. We played some great defense. Overall it was just a great day for the team.

When all was said and done, Archer’s slider was dynamic — coaxing whiff after whiff from the Twins’ batters.

His slider is his most devastating pitch in terms of swings and misses that you’ll see, Molitor said prior to the game. He can make it disappear both down and in to lefties and away from righties, and he’s not afraid to throw it behind in the count. He’s one of those guys it’s going to be tough to have a good at-bat against him every time.

Alex Colome entered in relief and got Sano to strikeout on four pitches to end the eighth. Colome later worked the ninth and earned his 13th save by working around one-out double.

The New What Next

The Rays look to tie their season high in wins on Saturday with ake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.14 ERA, 4.50 FIP) on the mound. He’ll start opposite of left-hander Adalberto Mejia (1–1, 4.96 ERA, 6.63 FIP).

Odorizzi collected his fourth quality start of the season Monday when he held the Angels to two runs over six innings of a no-decision. In two career starts at Target Field, Odorizzi is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA. This season, Mejia has relied primarily on a 94 mph four-seam fastball and a rather par for the course 84 mph slider. He’s also mixed in a 93 mph contact inducing sinker and an 85 mph changeup.

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 5/27/17 Starting Lineup

Beckham SS
Robertson 2B
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Weeks DH
Norris C
Bourjos LF
Odorizzi RHP

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays End Series with 8-0 Throttling of Le Tigre

By Leave a Comment

Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria score in the fourth inning on a double by Asdrubal Cabrera. (Photo Credit: Dave Reginek/Getty Images)

Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria score in the fourth inning on a double by Asdrubal Cabrera. (Photo Credit: Dave Reginek/Getty Images)

Jake Odorizzi entered Wednesday’s game with the lowest amount of run support in the American League. However, he was given run support in spades last night, as the Tampa Bay Rays (68-71) tied a season-high, hitting four homers en route to an 8-0 win over the Detroit Tigers, completing a 4-5 road trip. With the win, Tampa Bay split the season series with Detroit at three games apiece.


Source: FanGraphs

Tampa Bay took a three-run lead in the fourth inning against lefty Kyle Lobstein. Mikie Mahtook walked with one out, and moved to second on an Evan Longoria single to left. Logan Forsythe lined an opposite field double to right, scoring Mahtook, then Asdrubal Cabrera slashed a double to left-center, plating a pair of runs for a 3-0 advantage.

The Rays extended their lead in the sixth after Forsythe and Tim Beckham hit a pair of homers, chasing Lobstein from the game. For Beckham, 49% of his hits this season have gone for extra bases.

Not one to be left out from the hit show, J.P. Arencibia belted a solo shot an inning later off reliever Buck Farmer for a six run lead. It was the 18th homer by a Rays’ catcher this year ― two shy of a club record. Finally, Mahtook capped the long ball fiesta when he homered off Jeff Ferrell in the seventh.

The four home runs tied their season high for a game, set on August 4 against the White Sox, in Chicago. Mahtook’s blast may have been the most impressive. Not only did he connect with a fastball that was down and away, his shot was measured at 427 feet by MLB Statcast, with a bat speed of 106 mph.

Beckham singled home another run in the seventh after both Longoria and Forsythe worked a couple of free passes, pushing the margin to 8-0.

Odorizzi clearly did the devils work against Miggy and company by tossing six shutout innings, scattering six hits and fanning six along the way. And though he got himself into a man at third and one-out situation in the third inning ― after Anthony Gose converted a double into three bases ― and a first and second with none-out rally in the fifth, Odorizzi made a couple of big pitches to force a popper out of J.D. Martinez, and a swinging strikeout of Miguel Cabrera (respectively) to get out of both unscathed.

C.J. Riefenhauser worked around a leadoff walk for a scoreless seventh, Enny Romero worked around a two-out double for another zero an inning later, and Kirby Yates worked a perfect ninth to preserve the combined shutout.

Tampa Bay’s hurlers held Detroit to 0-7 wRISP while racking up a sum total of 10 strikeouts.

The Rays have an off-day Thursday ahead of a 10-game home-stand beginning Friday, when they will welcome the Massholes into the Trop for three.

Noteworthiness

― The Rays improved to 25-16 (.610) when facing LH starters; the second best in the majors behind the Toronto Blue Jays (20-12).

― Steven Souza Jr. completed his secondary rehabilitation stint with the Charlotte Stone Crabs and will head back to St. Petersburg Thursday for a re-evaluation. He will likely to rejoin the team on Friday.

― Manager Kevin Cash said it was “very likely” RHP Nathan Karns would get another start this season, though the “when” will be predicated on the match-up.