AL Wildcard Race Archives

TNWN: Rays look to bounce back in season finale; Yandy Díaz to be activated from the IL

September 29, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Matt Duffy hit his first home run of the season Saturday afternoon, giving the Rays their only run of the contest against the Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A day after clinching their first postseason berth in six years, the Tampa Bay Rays fell to the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1 on Saturday. With the loss, the Rays can only tie the franchise mark for the best regular-season record ever, set by the 2008 ballclub.

A’s win and the #Rays are heading to Oakland for the AL Wild Card game.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) September 29, 2019

Melvin says all the talk coming off the field was about coming home to Oakland; he expects 50K there. “It will be rowdy,” Brett Anderson says.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) September 29, 2019

With the loss and the Athletics’ 1-0 win, the Rays will be heading to Oakland for the AL Wildcard game.

Ryan Yarbrough got off to his second consecutive slow start on Saturday, allowing base hits to each of the first four batters he faced and surrendering a home run to Teoscar Hernandez — his second homer in as many days. Yarbrough eventually settled in and allowed just one hit over his final four frames. All told, he allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three across five innings. If the Rays advance to the ALDS, expect Yarbrough to pitch behind an opener. The southpaw enters the postseason with an 11-6 record, a 4.13 ERA and a 3.56 FIP, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 5.85 K/BB.

The Rays had nine base runners throughout the game, on three hits and six walks, but they couldn’t generate any offense, going 0-3 wRISP. Matt Duffy accounted for the only run of the day, slugging his first home run of the season in the top of the 7th inning, and cutting the Rays’ deficit to 3-1

Speaking of sluggers, Tampa Bay has activated Yandy Díaz from the 60-day Injured List. In order to make room for Díaz on the 40-man roster, reliever Cole Sulser has been designated for assignment.

Díaz appeared in an Instructional League game Friday and made six plate appearances, showing enough improvement to lead to his activation. He will be limited to DH/pinch-hit duties.

I saw some iPhone clips of it, and he looked pretty normal. The plan is for him to get on a plane. Get here this evening, and then we’ll see what we do with him tomorrow.
Yandy is not going to play the field, so he’s going to impact us, if we go that way, with his bat. Then we’ll decide if we run for him if needed, and stuff like that. But every day, we’re buying more time of him healing.
— Kevin Cask

Díaz hasn’t suited up since late July when he landed on the IL with a hairline fracture left foot. He was held out of baseball activities for nearly two months as a result of the injury.

With his return, Díaz could factor into postseason play for the Rays. The 28-year-old could be of value in the one-game matchup against the Athletics when southpaw Sean Manaea could start. Díaz has fared against left-handers all season, slashing .311 BA/.393 OBP/.583 SLG/.976 OPS with seven homers and a .272 ISO, when he has a platoon advantage.

The New What Next

The final game of the regular season is set for this afternoon with Blake Snell (6-7, 4.21 ERA) getting the start, pitching opposite of Clay Buchholz (1-5, 7.00 ERA).

Blake Snell allowed one run on two hits and three walks while striking out three over 1-2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Monday. Snell struggled with his command, allowing three free passes before being pulled in the second inning after allowing a run on a double. The Rays are still easing the left-hander back into his usual workload, and he was not expected to pitch more than a few innings. Snell has a 4.21 ERA with 143 strikeouts through 22 starts this season.

Clay Buchholz allowed six runs on six hits and three walks while striking out four over four innings against the Orioles on Monday. Buchholz was hit hard, allowing three home runs, including two in the fifth inning. The right-hander has a 1-5 record with a 7.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts across 11 starts this season. He is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two 2019 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-4, 2 2B), Austin Meadows (3-8, RBI), Tommy Pham (1-3), Joey Wendle (2-2)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Blue Jays — one last regular-season series preview

Rays 9/29/19 Starting Lineup

Diaz DH
Pham LF
Choi 1B
Garcia RF
Kiermaier CF
Robertson 2B
Duffy 3B
Zunino C
Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— Eric Sogard said that he is making progress and he is taking some swings, and there is a possibility he could be available for Wednesday’s Wildcard game.

— Free on this afternoon? Join us at Golden Dinosaurs Vegan Deli for only last regular season watch party, as we celebrate the Rays playoff berth!

Let’s fill the patio with blue — both light and dark — grey, and sunburst yellow. Discounts for Rays fans…oh, and did I mention fun and camaraderie? Help cheer on OUR crew, hope to see you there!

Do they owe is a Wildcard? Of course they do, of course, they do!

TNWN: Rays vs. Blue Jays — one last regular-season series preview

September 27, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays closed out their regular-season home schedule with a sweep of the Yankees. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After sweeping the New York Yankees, and winning five of six in their final regular-season home stand, the Tampa Bay Rays hit the road for one last road trip. On Friday, the Rays will start a three-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays, who took two of three from the Orioles.

Tampa Bay is in the driver’s seat in the AL Wildcard race after their sweep of the Yankees. The Rays pitching staff was dominant in the two-game series, combining for 29 strikeouts and allowing just one run across 21 total innings. In the series finale, the Rays fanned 16 and allowed just one hit; the only other time the Yankees struck out that often with just one hit was the famous Pedro Martinez one-hitter on September 10, 1999, when he struck out 17.

Tampa Bay enters the final series of the season 31 games over .500 for the first time since 2010, a game behind Oakland for the top Wildcard spot, and with a two-game lead over Cleveland for the final AL Wildcard spot. The Rays can clinch their first postseason berth since 2013 with a win and a Cleveland loss, or a pair of wins this weekend.

With three games left to play, the Rays have a 97.1% chance of a postseason berth according to FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 92.8% chance.

The Blue Jays put 11 runs on the board against Baltimore twice in a week, however, aside from those two ballgames, Toronto averaged just over four runs per game in 10 of the last 12 contests. Even so, the Jays are 8-4 over that stretch which included a series win against New York. Expect Toronto to try and play spoiler against Tampa Bay.

The Rays have owned the Blue Jays this season, going 12-4 with a 28 run differential. In the season series, Toronto has averaged just under four runs per game.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to throw Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.92 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-5, 4.08 ERA), and Blake Snell (6-7, 4.21 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with T.J. Zeuch (1-1, 4.58 ERA), Trent Thornton (5-9, 5.00 ERA), and Clay Buchholz (1-5, 7.00 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow was impressive across three innings on Saturday, allowing two hits with zero walks while punching out seven. The right-hander joined Andrew Kittredge and Shawn Camp as one of only three Rays to strike out seven in three innings or fewer. The team has been cautious with Glasnow, who missed a majority of the summer with a forearm strain since he returned from the IL. He didn’t make it through the four innings the Rays had planned, yet he was spectacular in his time on the mound. Glasnow owns a 2.25 ERA with 17 strikeouts in eight innings (three outings) since returning from the IL. Overall, he is 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a .198 batting average against with 72 strikeouts across 56-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow will get one final regular-season tuneup against the Blue Jays on Friday.

T.J. Zeuch allowed two runs on four hits with no walks and six strikeouts across four innings against the Yankees on Saturday. Zeuch was making his second start this season, and he shut out the Yankees over the first three frames before the 24-year-old allowed two runs in the fourth inning on doubles by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and a single by Mike Ford. He was removed after 70 pitches. In 17-2/3 big-league innings, Zeuch has a 4.58 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts. Zeuch relies primarily on a whiffy 92 mph sinker with armside run and has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in an 84 mph 12-6 slider with two-plane movement, an 83 mph changeup with a ton of backspin, and a whiffy 76 mph curveball.

Ryan Yarbrough gave up six runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out just two over 3-1/3 innings against the Red Sox on Sunday. Yarbrough endured a disastrous first inning in which he allowed six hits, including a three-run home run, before running into trouble again in the fourth. Expect Yarbrough, who has a 4.08 ERA with 114 strikeouts through 27 appearances this season, to be on a short leash.

Trent Thornton worked five innings and gave up four runs on five hits while striking out three on Sunday against the Yankees. Thornton had previously shined in his previous two turns as a primary pitcher with a sparkling 5.5 K/BB and one run allowed over 10 innings, but the two-run homer he allowed to DJ LeMahieu prevented the right-hander from maintaining momentum. Thornton is 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA in four starts against the Rays this season (16 innings of work). Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-8, HR, 2 RBI), Matt Duffy (1-2), Avisail Garcia (4-7, 1 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Brandon Lowe (3-5, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Austin Meadows (7-9, 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Eric Sogard (1-2), Joey Wendle (1-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Free on Sunday? Join us at Golden Dinosaurs Vegan Deli for only last regular season watch party, as OUR guys finalize their playoff push!

Do they owe is a Wildcard? Of course they do, of course, they do.

LBWMF: The cardiac kids strike again as the Rays defeat New York in extras, 2-1

September 25, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Ji-Man Choi and the cardiac kids struck again for yet another orange roof in the penultimate home game of the regular season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff suppressed the mighty Yankees on Tuesday night as the team survived yet another extra-inning contest, winning 2-1 thanks to Ji-Man Choi’s 12th inning long ball. With the win, Tampa Bay starts the day 30 games over .500 for the first time since 2010, a half-game behind Oakland for the top Wildcard spot, and with a half-game lead over Cleveland for the final AL Wildcard spot.

With four games left to play, the Rays have a 70.9% chances of a postseason berth according to FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.4% chance.

Yonny Chirinos got the ballgame rolling with his first start since August 4th. Chirinos allowed one run on one hit — a first-pitch homer to Cameron Maybin to leadoff the third inning — across three frames on just 30 pitches (18 strikes, 60% strike rate). From there, the rest of the pitching staff went to work…although it wasn’t easy.

Andrew Kittredge took over in the fourth and threw a scoreless inning, striking out a pair while allowing an infield hit. Yet things got hairy in the fifth inning when Brendan McKay had to work around a pair of singles.

Meanwhile, in the bottom of the frame, after Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames were sent back to the dugout in quick order, Kevin Kiermaier — mired in a 1-for-27 slump — worked a 3-2 count before he crushed a solo home run over the right-field wall, tying the game at one apiece.

It was Kiermaier’s 14th homer of the season.

McKay took the mound again in the sixth inning and fell behind Aaron Judge before he struck him out on a 3-2 fastball. Yet, the left-hander walked Giancarlo Stanton after coaxing a fly-ball out from Gleyber Torres, ending his outing. Kevin Cash called upon Diego Castillo, who — after hitting Gio Urshela with a 94 mph sinker — got Didi Gregorius to line out to right. Castillo also collected a perfect seventh.

In the eighth, with the top of the order looming, Emilio Pagan took the mound and worked around a leadoff single for a scoreless inning of work, punctuated by a punch-out of Stanton on a 97 mph fastball to end the frame.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1176676957855080448

Colin Poche took over in the ninth for a 1-2-3 inning, including a five-pitch strikeout of Cameron Maybin. Oliver Drake and Chaz Roe combined for a perfect tenth, while Roe worked around a hit in the eleventh, notching three strikeouts along the way.

Things got interesting in the top of the 12th with winning pitcher Pete Fairbanks on the mound. Fairbanks got the first two outs on a pair of line drives to Matt Duffy and Mike Brosseau (respectively) before pinch-hitter Mike Ford hit a bloop double in shallow left that fell in between Duffy and Tommy Pham. The right-hander recovered and struck out Brett Gardner to end the threat.

The Rays couldn’t capitalize on two good scoring opportunities, which ultimately led to their extra-inning walk-off.

Jordan Montgomery, who opened for New York, got out of a second and third two-out situation in the first inning, striking out Ji-Man Choi.

Then in the sixth, after the Yankees stranded a pair of runners on base, the Rays loaded the bases on three walks (one by Tyler Lyons, two by Luis Cessa). However, Cessa got pinch hitter Nate Lowe to ground out to second on a 3-1 pitch to end the threat. After that, Tampa Bay didn’t have another base runner until the 12th.

In the bottom of the 12th, Choi worked a 2-2 count before he hit his second homer in as many days.

It was Choi’s 18th homer of the season and ended a string of plate appearances where New York had retired 16 consecutive batters. Tampa Bay now has won eight consecutive extra-inning ballgames after starting the season 3-7.

The New What Next

The Rays will play their final regular-season home game of the 2019 campaign on Wednesday. Charlie Morton (15-6, 3.15 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of another bullpen day for New York, which might (or might not) include Masahiro Tanaka.

Charlie Morton was sharp over the first six frames, allowing just three hits — two on the infield — and a walk over that stretch while striking out six. However, he surrendered a two-run homer to Mitch Moreland in the seventh inning before exiting the contest. Even so, Morton is 2-0 over his last four turns, allowing three runs or fewer in each outing. The right-hander owns a 3.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, with a 4.3 K/BB across 188-2/3 innings this season. Morton is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts (15-1/3 innings) against New York in 2019, but 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 16 starts (98-1/3 innings) at Tropicana Field this season.

Masahiro Tanaka gave up one earned run on four hits over seven innings against the Angels on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. Tanaka had given up eight runs over nine innings in two previous outings, but he bounced back with a sharp effort against Anaheim, allowing him to cruise to his 11th win of the season. Even so, the right-hander has had an erratic campaign overall, with a 4.47 ERA across 179 innings on the season. Be that as it may, Tanaka has been deadly against the Rays this season, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.59 ERA over four starts, and a 1-0 record with a 3.28 ERA in three starts at the Trop (13-1/3 innings of work). Key Matchups: Michael Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Ji-Man Choi (4-14, 2 2B, BB), Guillermo Heredia (1-4), Kevin Kiermaier (9-34, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Nate Lowe (1-3, HR, RBI), Austin Meadows (3-11, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Eric Sogard (3-8, 2B, HR, RBI), Joey Wendle (3-11, 2B, 2 RBI), Mike Zunino (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — one last series preview

Rays 9/25/19 Starting Lineup

Wendle 2B
Meadows LF
d’Arnaud C
Choi 1B
Garcia RF
B. Lowe DH
Duffy 3B
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS

Noteworthiness

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — one last series preview

September 24, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The cardiac kids scored six runs in the fourth inning of the series finale against the reigning World Series champions, on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After taking three of four from the reigning World Series champions, the playoff-contending Tampa Bay Rays are set to embark on the final home series of the season, a two-game set against the New York Yankees. The Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays.

Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games, while the Rays are better at home than the Yankees are on the road (47-31 vs. 45-31).

With five games left to play (two vs. New York, and three vs. Toronto), Tampa Bay enters the series 1-1/2 games behind Oakland for the top Wildcard and 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland for the final playoff spot.

Thanks to Monday’s win, the Rays chances of a postseason berth are 65.1% according to FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 60.5% chance.

Suffice it to say, this is an incredibly important series against an opponent Tampa Bay has not fared well against. Yet, even though the Rays have gone just 5-12 against the Yankees this season, they have gone 3-4 against them at home. Is that great? Clearly not. BUT, that is far better than their 2-8 record at Yankee Stadium.

It will not be easy for the Rays, who currently hold their own destiny. The Yankees already saw the returns of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit, while Edwin Encarnacion is expected to return this week. Even without the “big boppers,” the Evil Empire has been mightily productive this season.

Still, Tampa Bay has won 14 of the last 20 games while New York is one game off that pace. And while the Yankees have plated 126 runs in the month of September, which is a formidable total to be sure, the Rays have been no slackers, scoring just 15 runs fewer over the same span — 1.33 runs fewer per game (on average). Over that stretch, the Rays have faced a far more difficult schedule than the Yankees, who played just five games against plus .500 teams. The team has also been much better with runners in score position, hitting at least .300 in five of the last seven series. In doing so, they’ve performed to a combined .330 wOBA and an above-average wRC+.

Tampa Bay has played some of its best baseball of late, and the Rays will need to continue to play at a high level heading into the final series of the season, in Toronto.

Pitching Probables

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will throw right-hander Yonny Chirinos (9-5, 3.67 ERA), and team co-MVP Charlie Morton (15-6, 3.15 ERA). Aaron Boone is expected to counter with a bullpen day in the series opener, and Masahiro Tanaka (11-8, 4.47 ERA) in the series finale.

Yonny Chirinos will open for Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The right-hander returned from the IL over the weekend, making an appearance out of the bullpen Saturday against the Red Sox and allowing one run while striking out two batters across one inning. Chirinos will likely work longer Tuesday, although he will be on a pitch count as he slowly builds back up following his lengthy absence. Brendan McKay, who was originally slated to start Tuesday, is a candidate to piggyback Chirinos. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in five outings (three starts) against the Yankees this season.

Brendan McKay allowed three runs on three hits and a walk while striking out three across four innings on Wednesday. The southpaw allowed three runs on two hits and a walk in the second inning, but limited Los Angeles to just one other base runner in his four innings of work. The 23-year-old is 2-4 on the season with a 5.40 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP over 46-2/3 innings of work. In his last appearance against the Yankees, McKay allowed three runs on six hits (including a homer) over five innings. He fanned three.

Yankees Bullpen Day

Rays look to cap the series against the Sox with a win

September 23, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Brandon Lowe returned to the lineup yesterday and will hit seventh tonight. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a 7-4 loss on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to win their four-game series against the Boston Red Sox tonight and maintain a hold on a Wildcard spot with a week left in the season.

With six games left (one vs. Boston, two vs. New York, and three vs. Toronto), Tampa Bay starts the day two games behind Oakland for the top Wildcard and tied with Cleveland for the last playoff spot. Cleveland is off today, so the Rays can move a half-game ahead with a victory tonight.

Because of the loss, Tampa Bay’s chances of a postseason berth fell to 72.6% per FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a diminished 60.5% chance. Even so, both projection systems favor the Rays over Cleveland, although that could change with less than a win tonight.

After missing the last two games due to dizziness, Avisail Garcia will return to the lineup tonight. Eric Sogard, however, is still dealing with a bruised foot which he suffered during the last homestand; he has started just once since.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (6-7, 4.19 ERA) will open the game for the Rays tonight, pitching opposite of Jhoulys Chacin (0-1, 4.32 ERA with Boston, 3-11, 5.66 ERA overall).

Blake Snell was impressive on Tuesday, pitching two perfect innings while striking out four. Snell showed no rust from his nearly two-month absence after undergoing the knife, tossing 17 of 26 pitches for strikes (65% strike rate) and whiffing four of the six batters he faced. The outing was a great step for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner as Snell looks to build stamina in anticipation of a playoff run. The left-hander maintains a 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 21 starts this season. He’ll likely square off against the Red Sox on Monday, although he will likely be on a short leash.

Jhoulys Chacín allowed two hits and walked two while fanning three over 2-2/3 scoreless frames as an opener on Thursday against the Blue Jays. Chacin, who had not allowed a baserunner in his first two outings with the Red Sox, faced his first bit of adversity since yet avoided any damage. The veteran has thrown 5-2/3 scoreless innings for Boston. Over his career, Chacín is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three outings (one Start). Key Matchups: Avisail Garcia (2-3, 2B), Guillermo Heredia (1-3, RBI), Mike Zunino (2-4, 2B, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, and the starting lineup is below.