X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays deal Nate Lowe to Texas; acquire an RHP from St. Louis in the Rule 5 Draft

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The Tampa Bay Rays traded Nate Lowe and two lower-level prospects to Texas ib Thursday for three players.

On Thursday, the Tampa Bay The Rays made their first trade of the offseason, sending Nate Lowe to Texas — along with two low-level prospects — for three 20-year-old prospects: catcher/outfielder Heriberto Hernandez, infielder Osleivis Basabe, and outfielder Alexander Ovalles. The move freed up a roster spot, and the Rays now have 38 players on the 40-man roster as they look to add players via trade or free agency to build on last year’s World Series appearance.

With Ji-Man Choi and the platoon of Mike Brosseau and Yandy Diaz standing in the way of Lowe as he fought for consistent playing time, the Rays dealt the infielder to the Rangers where he should get the reps he deserves.

The headline player for Tampa Bay is Hernandez, who slashed .320 BA/.450 OBP/.625 SLG/1.075 OPS with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, and 98 RBI in just 113 career minor league games across two seasons. The catcher/outfielder is a borderline top one hundred player, according to FanGraphs (No. 112 overall prospect and the third-ranked prospect in the Rangers system). He spent most of 2019 with the Rookie-level Arizona League Rangers, although he played three games with Short-A Spokane following a promotion. Between the two levels, he hit .345 BA/1.071 OPS with 28 extra-base hits (17 doubles, 11 homers) and 49 RBI in 53 games.

Following the 2019 regular season, Hernandez was named to the AZL postseason All-Star Team and led the league with 48 RBI, 66 hits, and 124 total bases (including 32 extra-base hits), and ranked among league leaders in batting average (.344), doubles (17), home runs (11), runs (42), OBP (.433), and SLG (.646).

Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) wrote a de facto scouting report on the other two prospects, writing:

Basabe is currently ranked as the number 16 prospect in the Rangers system by FanGraphs and 20th by MLB.com. Over two minor league seasons, Basabe is batting .334 (.825 OPS) with 18 doubles, one home run, 66 RBI, and 19 stolen bases in 89 games. He spent most of the 2019 season with the Rookie-level AZL Rangers, hitting .323 with 32 RBI in 37 games.

The 20-year-old Ovalles was signed by the Cubs originally and dealt to Texas in the Cole Hamels trade. Ovalles has batted .299 (.832 OPS) with 18 doubles, four home runs, and 41 RBI in 70 games in his pro career. Ovalles split 2019 between the Rookie-level AZL Rangers and Short-A Spokane.

The Rays drafted the 23-year-old Guenther in the seventh round in 2019 out of TCU. At Rookie-level Princeton in 2019, Guenther batted .320 (.854 OPS) (56-for-175) with 10 doubles, two home runs, and 30 RBI in 48 games.

— Neil Solondz

In addition to the three prospects acquired via trade, the Rays also picked up a right-handed hurler, 27-year-old Jordan Brink, from St. Louis in the minor league Rule 5 Draft.

Brink was originally drafted as a left-handed-hitting outfielder by the Cubs in the 11th round of the 2014 draft. His bat never developed in college where he slashed .224 BA/.292 OBP/.299 SLG/.591 OPS with 81 strikeouts in 108 games through his first two seasons. However, as a sophomore in 2013, the right-hander began to receive more opportunities on the mound as a reliever, and he eventually pitched his way into the team’s starting rotation. Brink finished the season with a 3.92 ERA and 65 strikeouts across 59-2/3 frames.

Fast forward to 2019 when he last pitched professionally with the Southern Illinois Miners in the independent Frontier League. Brink punched out 55 over 35-1/3 innings, going 2-3 with a 2.04 ERA and six saves. Based on the movement he gets on his changeup and fastball, Brink is an intriguing pitcher that will get his fair share of looks in Spring Training.

Rays announce 2021 farm system affiliates; Sternberg opens mouth and inserts foot … yet again

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Bill Murray, co-owner of the Charleston Riverdogs, the Rays newest minor league affiliate.

On Wednesday, Major League Baseball formally announced the 119 affiliated teams that have been invited to be minor league affiliates for the forthcoming season. Under the league’s new plan, the Tampa Bay Rays will have four full-season minor league affiliates: Durham (Triple-A), Montgomery (Double-A), Bowling Green (Advanced A), Charleston (Low-A). The change is part of the league’s reorganization and consolidation of the minor league affiliates.

The Rays released the details of the invitations via a team press release:

The Charleston (S.C.) RiverDogs were invited to become the Rays Low-A affiliate. Charleston served as Tampa Bay’s original Low-A affiliate from 1997 until 2004, and affiliated with the New York Yankees from 2005 until 2020. Among the many former Rays prospects who played for Charleston are James Shields, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli. In addition, Rays coaches Matt Quatraro and Paul Hoover both played for Charleston, and Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo managed Charleston in 1999 and 2000. The RiverDogs play at Joseph P. Riley Jr. Park.

Today the 2020 American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays invited four communities to join with them as affiliates under Major League Baseball’s new player development structure, which begins in 2021.

The Durham (N.C.) Bulls were invited to continue as the Rays Triple-A affiliate. Durham moved to the Triple-A level in 1998, when they became a Rays affiliate, and in 22 seasons since then advanced to the postseason 16 times and captured six International League titles (2002, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2018).

The Montgomery (Ala.) Biscuits were invited to continue as the Rays Double-A affiliate. A Rays affiliate since 2004, the Biscuits have won two Southern League championships (2006, 2007) and reached the postseason in five consecutive seasons from 2015-19. In 2019, they went 88-50, setting a franchise record for wins.

The Bowling Green (Ky.) Hot Rods were invited to continue as a Rays affiliate, advancing from Low-A to the High-A classification. The Hot Rods became a Rays affiliate in 2009, and have reached the postseason in four consecutive seasons (2016-19). In 2018, they won the Midwest League championship and were named Baseball America Minor League Team of the Year.

The Charleston (S.C.) RiverDogs were invited to become the Rays Low-A affiliate. Charleston served as Tampa Bay’s original Low-A affiliate from 1997 until 2004, and affiliated with the New York Yankees from 2005 until 2020. Among the many former Rays prospects who played for Charleston are James Shields, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli. In addition, Rays coaches Matt Quatraro and Paul Hoover both played for Charleston, and Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo managed Charleston in 1999 and 2000. The RiverDogs play at Joseph P. Riley Jr. Park.

“We are thrilled for the opportunity to continue partnering with our friends in Durham, Montgomery and Bowling Green in developing the next wave of Rays players. They have been tremendous partners,” said Rays Vice President, Player Development and International Scouting Carlos Rodriguez. “Likewise, our relationship with Charleston many years ago was very fruitful. The RiverDogs staff and fans create an environment where young prospects can flourish and grow, and we are excited to invite them back in to the Rays family.”

“The Rays would like to thank the Charlotte Stone Crabs, Hudson Valley Renegades and Princeton Rays for their many years of affiliation with our organization,” said Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Erik Neander. “The Rays were very fortunate to have close, long-standing relationships at every level, and we appreciate the pivotal role all our affiliates play in helping our players develop on their journeys to the big leagues.”

Rays affiliates combined for a .584 winning pct. (1,040-741) over the 2018-19 seasons, the best mark for any parent club during that stretch. The Rays claimed the No. 1 spot in Baseball America’s Organizational Talent Rankings in July 2019 and have held it since. In 2020, the Rays became the sixth team to rank No. 1 in Baseball America’s preseason Organizational Talent Rankings and advance to the World Series that same year, joining the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, 2008 Rays, 1999 Atlanta Braves, 1995 Braves and 1993 Blue Jays. The Rays had seven players on Baseball America’s season-ending ranking of Top 100 prospects, tied with the Miami Marlins for most in the majors. This group includes baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect in shortstop Wander Franco and 2020 American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Randy Arozarena (No. 100 overall)—the first rookie position player to win MVP of a LCS or the World Series.

The Bowling Green (Ky.) Hot Rods were invited to continue as a Rays affiliate, advancing from Low-A to the High-A classification. The Hot Rods became a Rays affiliate in 2009, and have reached the postseason in four consecutive seasons (2016-19). In 2018, they won the Midwest League championship and were named Baseball America Minor League Team of the Year.

— Tampa Bay Rays Communications

Under the league-wide consolidation, affiliated teams were reduced from more than 160 to 119. Tampa Bay had seven affiliates in the United States prior to 2020, yet teams now are allowed just four full-season affiliates. Because of the move, Port Charlotte has shifted from High-A to the Rays Gulf Coast League affiliate. The Charlotte Sports Park will continue to serve as the team’s Spring Training facility. It will also be Tampa Bay’s informal Extended Spring Training and Instructional Leagues complex. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, “Baltimore has announced it will have two Gulf Coast League teams to accommodate younger players. It’s not been determined if the Rays will do that.”

The decision by the Rays has been both celebrated and derided. However, one gleaming ray (excuse the pun) of hope has come from the decision to include the Riverdogs in the team’s farm system: Bill Murray is co-owner of the Charleston ball-club. Think of the synergy!

Noteworthiness

— Another meeting of the minds, another opportunity for the Rays owner, Stu Sternberg, to simultaneously open his mouth and insert his foot. I don’t even care enough to take a deep dive into his comments, and, frankly, neither should you. If you wish to dig deeper than my superficial scrape, feel free to click this link. Sternberg, once again, reiterated the same tired narrative that he’s rehashed for the last 15-years. Let’s just call it what it is: another boring attempt, by a potentially desperate owner, to reinvigorate his bullshit leverage ploy.

Be that as it may, I will take this opportunity to go on one righteously indignant tirade. Here goes nothing.

To all the Rays fans who previously took cheap shots at the team because of attendance — especially with the social distancing hot-takes at the start of the pandemic — yet are all bent out of shape now because the owner made the same exact bullshit joke on Wednesday, shut the fuck up. You are no better than him. There is no moral high-ground for you to stand on.

Secondly, to all the Tampa loyalists (the city, not the team) who championed Sternberg’s glib comments at the expense of the fan base on the other side of the bay, you enabled his petulant attacks on the fan base. You furthered a narrative that he started. You allowed Sternberg to quietly step away from that narrative and did all the legwork for him while he sat back and took it all in. You praised his $892-million gambit (cough, leverage ploy since he knew that Tampa didn’t have the money to build a stadium at the time and still doesn’t) and flagrantly waved it in the face of every single person that dared to criticize the proposal as though you were a dog that won a pissing contest. You loved him so so so very much because of his initial comments back in 2008, yet now you view him for what he truly is. Oh, and media outlets like WFLA, WDAE, and the Tampa Bay Times? You’re no better. None of you challenged Sternberg on any of his bullshit. Rather you capitulated time and again and allowed him to use you as a de facto, pro-bono PR department. Here the thing though, you can’t have it both ways.

I love my small market team and I love how the front office has worked with the relative microscopic budgets to create an incredibly competitive team. Still, Sternberg will NEVER be the benevolent owner the fan base deserves. He will always be the glib, stereotypical bottom line billionaire asshole that runs his team as such. He will always have more in common with the Duke Brothers than some idolized beloved community figure that lives in your imagination. Maybe now you’ll stop lauding him as the latter, and approach him as the former.

Kevin Cash: AL Manager of the Year

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After being named an AL Manager of the Year finalist for a third consecutive season, the Tampa Bay Rays skipper Kevin Cash finally received the honor many felt he was due on Tuesday. It’s the first time Cash has won the award, and he becomes the second manager to be honored in franchise history.

Cleveland manager, and long time friend, Terry Francona, made the announcement on MLB Network.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1326316989976031232?s=20

That was pretty cool. For me personally, if you’re going to get an award and you’re going to receive it from somebody, I don’t know if you could pick somebody better for everything he’s meant to me and my family. Just a pretty special person.

— Kevin Cash

Cash led the Rays to a 40-20 record in the truncated season — the best mark in the American League — despite starting the 2020 campaign with a 5-7 record. Tampa Bay really turned it on from that point though, going 35-13 across the final 48 games. Their .667 winning percentage was the top mark in franchise history. Still, a slow start wasn’t the only hurdle Cash and the team had to overcome, as the Rays lost a half dozen pitchers for the season due to injury, and they also had six players sidelined during summer camp due to COVID-19.

Cash credited the organization for allowing him and the team to weather the storm.

It’s a really special group, it’s a special place to work. I think it’s our job as staff to do everything we can with what’s being afforded to us.

— Kevin Cash

And while Cash had been pilloried for pulling Blake Snell in Game 6 of the World Series (cough, it was the right decision although he leaned on the wrong hurler in relief of Snell), he guided Tampa Bay to — and through — every level of the postseason; the Rays swept Toronto in the first round of the playoffs before heading to the final games of set in each of the next two series — outlasting the Yankees in the Division Series and the Astros in the Championship Series to win the pennant.

When asked by Tricia Whitaker (Fox Sports Sun) what helped him stay so even-keeled and consistent as a manager, Cash gave a self-deprecating response, which is par for the course.

Well, my daughters were the first to ask ‘Why did you take Snell out in game 6?!’ So when you’re getting it from your daughters, you can handle it from anyone. They keep me grounded.

— Kevin Cash

Cash beat out Charlie Montoyo, who guided the Blue Jays to the postseason, and (now) former White Sox Manager Rick Renteria for the award. Cash told Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) it was great to be on TV with Montoyo for the announcement as Cash says he’s learned a great deal from the team’s former third base coach and bench coach.

The Rays manager received 22 (of 30) first-place votes, five second-place votes, and one third-place vote to finish with a total of 126 points. He was left off two ballots. Renteria finished second with 61 points, while Montoyo finished third with 47 votes. All votes were submitted prior to the start of the postseason.

In south Florida, Don Mattingly of the Marlins won honors in the NL, beating out Jayce Tingler of San Diego and Dave Ross of the Cubs. It is the first time Mattingly has won the Manager of the Year award.

Looking back on the contentious decision to pull Snell in Game 6 of the World Series

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Blake Snell was pulled in favor of Nick Anderson after 5-1/3 innings of shutout ball in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series.

Seven days have passed since Kevin Cash made the contentious decision that many viewed as the death knell of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2020 World Series — pulling Blake Snell after 5-1/3 scoreless innings. Hell, even I called it a bad move at the time, and in the heat of the moment. Since then though, many analytics-driven sites like FanGraphs, the Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus have come out generally in favor of Cash’s decision, while other more traditional outlets have turned Cash into a pariah. I’ve heard both sides of the discussion, and I have finally at peace with the decision. However, I will say that Cash did make a costly error: he called upon Nick Anderson instead of Diego Castillo or Ryan Thompson.

As a general rule, the performance of a pitcher across the first few innings predicts nothing as it relates to how he will perform across subsequent frames. True, Snell was dominant against the Dodgers through 5-1/3 innings, however, there was no guarantee that he would carry that forward. As Mitchel Lichtman (MGL Baseball) noted, it improved his expected ERA by 1/4 of a run, give or take. Yet that improvement would be negated the third time through the order.

Snell, like most other pitchers, faces some trouble the third time through the order. Over his career, his wOBA jumps dramatically from .263 the first time through the order to .321, while his SLG tops out at .413. In 2020, his .913 OPS allowed the third time through the order is far worse than what a fresh reliever should have been able to hurl.

(Credit: FanGraphs)
(Credit: FanGraphs)

Furthermore, there is evidence that Snell was tiring. Both Snell’s fastball and curveball velocity dropped precipitously. For reference, a pitcher with a fastball at 94 mph, instead of 96 mph, is about a half-run of ERA worse. And once his velocity started to fall, it was likly to continue until he ran into trouble.

As Eno Sarris (the Athletic) detailed, “His last fastball against Austin Barnes was his slowest fastball of the night, and a full tick below where he’d been sitting so far in the game. And Snell has been, in his career, 23 percent worse than league average when it comes to third-time through the order. If his personal splits in that might not matter (we’re still only talking about 432 regular-season plate appearances in which he’s seen a lineup a third time), the league has established third-time through the order splits that matter. Snell had not finished the sixth inning all season.”

Snell’s fastball to Barnes was two miles per hour off his average during the contest. Craig Edwards (FanGraphs) noted that when Snell’s fastball was at least 95 mph during the regular season, he coaxed swings-and-misses on 13% of pitches. However, when his fastball velocity fell under 95 mph, his whiff rate was just 9%. That was on display during Game 6. Snell got four swings and misses on his seven hardest fastballs of the night, and six on his hardest 13. Yet on the 16 pitches below 96.5 mph? The left-hander induced just two whiffs.

Put simply, Snell did his job quite effectively but he was getting tired and he was set to face the top of the Dodgers’ order for the third time.

Cash was in control of arguably the best bullpen in baseball — the stable as it were — with a good number of arms that had proven fairly successful against Los Angeles up to that point. And staked to a 1-0 lead against a team that hadn’t been shutout all season, the choice was about who would be the most effective hurler to replace Snell. This is where I believe Cash made the wrong decision.

Cash went with Anderson, who held opponents to a .091 BA/.138 OBP/.182 SLG/.320 OPS line during the regular, which was better than even Snell’s first time through the order stat line. However, Anderson had struggled in the postseason.

The vertical movement on his fastball had dropped by almost two inches since the start of 2019, while his heater was down almost two full ticks from 2019 to now. Anderson, who regularly lives at the top of the zone, wasn’t able to get his fastball above hitter’s bats, or with the velocity that would make the pitch effective. As Sarris put it, “All year he’d had less movement and velo, and as that trend worsened, so did his results.”

After the game, Anderson conceded that he didn’t feel great.

Workload, 2020 season, the whole thing is just crazy, honestly. Not having a normal routine, lifting, the season, everything — it’s been crazy. I didn’t feel as good as I would have liked to, but it’s the big leagues; you’re not going to feel good every time. I was still confident. It wasn’t the situation, it wasn’t being in the World Series or anything like that. Not a lot of gas.

— Nick Anderson

Cash probably should have gone with Castillo or Thompson (and his 59% ground ball rate) to get the outs and use Anderson against the softer back end of the order before handing the ball over to Pete Fairbanks. Or, the Rays offense could have scored more than one run, rendering all of this back-and-forth moot.

At the end of the day, an unpopular decision was made and no amount of prognostication will change the outcome. Cash had made similar decisions all season long, and those moves got the Rays to the World Series with the best record in the American League. Should he have been pilloried for being consistent? In my opinion, probably not.

BBWAA Awards finalists announced; Kevin Cash named as an MOY finalist in the AL

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For the third consecutive year, Kevin Cash has been recognized as a finalist for the BBWAA AL Manager of the year.

On Monday, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) announced the three finalists for each of the 2020 BBWAA Awards representing each league for the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player awards. And for the third consecutive year, Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash has been recognized as a finalist for the AL Manager of the year.

The schedule for the awards follows, while the MLB Network will exclusively televise the live announcements of the winners of each award during BBWAA Awards Week from November 9-12.

The complete list of award finalists is below.

AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year:

  • Cristian Javier (Houston Astros), Kyle Lewis (Seattle Mariners), Luis Robert (Chicago White Sox)

NL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year:

  • Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies), Jake Cronenworth (San Diego Padres), Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers)

AL Manager of the Year:

  • Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays), Charlie Montoyo (Toronto Blue Jays), Rick Renteria (Chicago White Sox)

NL Manager of the Year:

  • Don Mattingly (Miami Marlins), David Ross (Chicago Cubs), Jayce Tingler (San Diego Padres)

AL Cy Young Award:

  • Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians), Kenta Maeda (Minnesota Twins), Hyun Jin Ryu (Toronto Blue Jays)

NL Cy Young Award:

  • Trevor Bauer (Cincinnati Reds), Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs), Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)

AL Most Valuable Player:

  • José Abreu (Chicago White Sox), DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees), José Ramírez (Cleveland Indians)

NL Most Valuable Player:

  • Mookie Betts (Los Angeles Dodgers), Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves), Manny Machado (San Diego Padres)

Cash was nominated for the Manager of the Year award in each of the last two seasons, yet he finished third after leading Tampa Bay to consecutive 90+ win seasons in 2018 (90) and 2019 (96 and a playoff berth). Votes are made by the national BBWAA writers at the end of the regular season.

This season, Cash led the Rays to the best record in the American League, while they won the AL East for just the third time in franchise history. At 40-20 on the season, it was just the second time Tampa Bay had the best mark in the AL in spite of season-ending injuries to six pitchers, and more than a dozen injured list stints overall, not to mention six other players that were shelved during the regular season or summer camp due to COVID-19.