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The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Cubs — an Interleague series preview

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Chris Archer will take the mound for the Rays on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays welcome Joe Maddon and the Chicago Cubs into Tropicana Field, where they will start a two-game Interleague series on Tuesday. Hanging on by a thread of a 0.5% chance of a playoff berth, the Rays salvaged the final game of the series against the Red Sox on Sunday, while the Cubs are in the midst of a six-game win streak.

(Stats: ESPN)

I liken the Rays playoff pursuit to those that purchase lottery tickets and expect a large windfall. While there is a statistical probability that you or I could walk away with the jackpot, the likelihood of that happening is a one in 175 million chance (a .0000005714286% chance). Those are pretty astronomical odds.

Likewise, it would take a lot for the Rays to punch their proverbial postseason ticket over the next 12 games. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not so much. Suffice it to say these are must win games, and whatever the case it all starts Tuesday.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

To put it bluntly, with a 5.30 ERA over the last 14 days, if there is any hope of the Rays taking the series against the reigning World Series champs, two things must occur:

  1. Chris Archer, who has performed to a 4.26 ERA/3.74 FIP in the second half, MUST pitch well in the series opener (Blake Snell on Wednesday too).
  2. It is incumbent upon Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson and Lucas Duda to slip out of their individual (well, combined) funks.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days Kevin Cash will lean on the aforementioned Chris Archer (9-10, 4.06 ERA, 3.36 FIP) and Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP). Joe Maddon will counter with former Rays farm-hand Mike Montgomery (4-5, 4.62 ERA, 4.05 FIP), and Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer allowed three runs over four innings on Wednesday against the Yankees, and taking the loss in doing so. The right-hander has struggled in two starts since his return from a bout with forearm tightness, allowing nine earned runs on 15 hits over seven innings, although the Rays have not indicated that that is still an issue. Archer is 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 post-All-Star break starts; he beat he Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 4 when he allowed three runs over six innings.

Montgomery, the Rays former left-handed farm-hand, returned to the Cubs rotation after bouncing back and forth, to and from the bullpen. Montgomery is 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 starts. The left-handed 93 mph sinker/92mph four-seam fastball/78mph curveball throwing hurler os 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA in four appearances (one start) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (1-3, 3B)

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— The Cubs have eight players and coaches who spent time in Devil Rays/Rays uniforms: Chris Bosio (pitching coach), Wade Davis (RHP), Eric Hinske (assistant hitting coach), Joe Maddon (manager), Dave Martinez (bench coach), Mike Montgomery (LHP), Rene Rivera (C), Ben Zobrist (INF/OF).

— Wednesday’s first pitch will be thrown out by Beau Zimmer, the grandson of Don Zimmer, who had extensive connections between both ball clubs.

— The Rays are expected to have a video tribute to their former manager at some point during the upcoming series, be that Tuesday or Wednesday.

— Evan Longoria and Kahwa Coffee are teaming up for a “brand collaboration” to help Hurricane Irma relief efforts. More details will be announced Tuesday.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Red Sox — a series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays returned from their home away from home (seen above), where they will start a three-game series against the Red Sox on Friday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Two things start for the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday:

  1. The final series of the season against the Boston Red Sox.
  2. The final stretch of the 2017 campaign.

(Stats: ESPN)

Despite going 2-4 over the last six games, Tampa Bay is still in the hunt for a playoff berth, although improbably so.

All across the organization the Rays firmly believe they still believe they have a chance, albeit one that requires them to come pretty close to putting together a Cleveland-like winning streak.

It would be Herculean, Stu Sternberg told the Tampa Bay Times. But we’re not there yet.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted that the main root of their belief — as odd as it sounds 5½ months into the season — is that they have not yet played their best for any extended period, evidenced by the fact that at no point have they won more than four in a row.

As a pitcher who pitches every fifth day and watches the games in between, I don’t feel like we’ve gone on that collective run where we knew we were going to score runs and we knew we were going to prevent runs consistently for a week plus, right-hander Alex Cobb said. Where we showed up a the park and we’re like, ‘Everything is going to click today.’ It’s been kind of just battling to stay afloat.

… It’s never too late for that, until the calendar flips to the next month. But it needs to hurry up.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

They are battling to stay afloat, as Cobb suggests, for a couple of reasons. First, the starting rotation has not been effective of late.

Consider that the front five have performed to 5.72 ERA/4.51 FIP over the last two weeks — a time when every poor start makes it that much harder for the Rays to overcome what they lack. That the starters have averaged just over four innings per start over that stretch certainly doesn’t help.

Second, a regressing offense.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pair those two together, and you have a pretty volatile combination … although volatile as it related to an implosion, not an explosion.

Thinking back to 2011 (Game 162) and 2013 (Game 163), they’ll have to approach things day-by-day and game-by-game over the next 2½ weeks, starting a month ago.

We’ve been in this position before, Sternberg said. Whether we have to leapfrog two teams or 22, it’s about winning baseball games. And that starts with winning a baseball game.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy, especially for a team that hasn’t shown the ability to consistently string together a bunch of wins. But as long as there still is a mathematical chance…

Kevin Cash will throw Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.66 ERA, 5.02 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-9, 3.59 ERA, 4.16 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (8-8, 4.52 ERA, 5.79 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Chris Sale (16-7, 2.76 ERA, 2.20 FIP), Rick Porcello (9-17, 4.64 ERA, 4.56 FIP), and Eduardo Rodriguez (5-5, 4.23 ERA, 4.02 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese was knocked out in the second inning after he allowed eight runs (six earned) in his last start against the Red Sox. One had to question his sequence of pitches in the first inning at-bat vs. Dustin Pedroia. He followed a dust-off pitch with a heater that was up and over the inner third of the plate — right in Pedroia’s juice zone. From there, things spiraled out of control for the Rays, who appeared to be no match for the very aggressive Red Sox. Expect Andriese to be on a very short leash Friday night.

Sale will face the Rays for the sixth and final time this season. Boston took a lead in the first inning last weekend against Tampa Bay, which was more run support than Sale would need — allowing him to easily collect his 16th victory of the season. The southpaw has fared well against Tampa Bay thus far, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 2017, although he’s pitched even better Tropicana Field over his career, going 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA. Sale is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 17 road starts this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-7, 2B, HR, RBI), Danny Espinosa (2-5), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-15, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Trevor Plouffe (15-52, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

Cobb has won his last two outings and has delivered quality starts in each of his last three, the most recent of which came against Boston. The right-hander held the Red Sox to just one earned run, although it took him 93 pitches to navigate five-plus innings. Cobb is 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 career starts against Boston, and 23-18 with a 3.07 ERA in 57 career starts at the Trop.

Porcello kept the Red Sox in the game last time out although he lost, allowing two runs on five over innings against the Rays.  Porcello enjoyed a strong outing overall, although it was tarnished in the fifth inning when he allowed a pair of runs on four hits and a walk. He ran up his pitch count and did not return for the sixth, marking the second consecutive outing in which he failed to complete six innings. While it was an improvement on the seven runs he allowed in his previous turn, the sinkerballer has still allowed 14 runs over 21-2/3 innings in his last four outings. In five starts vs. Tampa Bay in 2017, Porcello is 1-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (15-58, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (11-34, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi allowed five runs, but only one earned, during his previous start, which came at Citi Field against the Yankees. The start broke a string of two straight wins for him, in which he allowed three earned runs over 11 2/3 innings combined. Odorizzi looked really good the first time through the order. He reverse pitched New York’s batters early in those at-bats, leaning on his curveball (since he didn’t have his splitter), then blew them away with a well located fastball that coaxed a good number of swings and misses. Though he held the the Yankees hitless over the first three innings, they came back to answer big in the fourth. Odorizzi’s night was done fter after 52-pitch fourth inning. For context Odo threw 43 pitches in the first three innings alone. He went to three-ball counts in just two of the first nine at-bats, but that number blossomed to seven three-ball counts to seven of the last 10 batters he faced.

Rodriguez is coming off his best start since his return from the DL, holding Oakland to one hit and one run over six innings while fanning nine. After allowing a first inning RBI double to Jed Lowrie, the southpaw settled down as Boston’s offense took over. Rodriguez has now thrown two straight quality starts after a rough end to August. He’s posted a 76/24 K/BB since the beginning of June (67 IP) despite a lackluster 5.37 ERA. The 94mph four-seam fastball/87mph changeup/84mph slider/88mph cutter throwing hurler is 0-1 with a 7.58 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Key matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Evan Longoria (5-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (2-2, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees — a home away from home series preview

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Citi Field: Home of the Tampa Bay Rays for the next three days. (Photo Credit: NYCGo.com)

The Tampa Bay Rays head home to Queens, where they will start a three-game series against their cross town rivals, the New York Yankees, on Monday. In all seriousness, seeing that I’m trying to get this done before a power outage (thanks Irma), what follows is a non-exhaustive and/or haphazard series preview.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

After dropping three consecutive games — having been outscored 28-9 over that stretch — the Rays salvaged a 4-1 win against the Red Sox on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Yankees are coming off a 16-6 win over the Texas Rangers.

The Rays starting rotation has been a concern of late, although the bullpen seems to be in fine shape. If they continue to bandy about their postseason hopes, the Rays starting rotation has got to put up a fight over the next three games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Tampa Bay’s biggest concern of late, well … aside from Irma, has been its offense, which again appears to be scuffling. I’d reckon that’s what happens when you hinge your production almost solely on the long ball.

I digress.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi (8-7, 4.58 ERA, 5.75 FIP), Blake Snell (3-6, 4.36 ERA, 4.44 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-9, 4.00 ERA, 3.36 FIP). Joe Girardi will counter with CC Sabathia (11-5, 3.91 ERA, 4.61 FIP), Sonny Gray (3-4, 2.74 ERA, 4.06 FIP), and Jaime Garcia (0-2, 5.11 ERA, 5.58 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi posted no-hit bid for 6-1/3 innings on Tuesday against the Twins, which Joe Mauer broke up with a single. It matched the longest no-hit bid of his career and was his first scoreless outing of at least 6-2/3 innings since July 29, 2016, ironically against the Yankees. The right-hander struck out the next batter he faced, but was lifted somewhat prematurely with 90 pitches under his belt. Whatever the case, Odo’s excellent start came at the right time, as he previously allowed 13 runs across 12-1/3 innings over his last three starts.

Sabathia cut down on the free passes in his last turn, issuing just one walk after allowing five in his previous outing. But perhaps the newfound zone pounding was a bird of ill omen for the swarthy southpaw, as the Orioles lit him up for five runs on eight hits, including three homers. In spite of the Yankees 6-5 win against the Rays on July 27, Tampa Bay tagged Sabathia for four runs on five hits and a walk. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (5-17, 2B, RBI, BB), Lucas Duda (2-8, HR, RBI, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-10, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (32-76, 9 2B, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 15 BB), Logan Morrison (2-5), Steven Souza Jr. (6-18, HR, RBI, 3 BB)

Snell allowed six runs on seven hits (including two homers) across four innings in a no-decision against Minnesota on Wednesday. He fanned seven and did not issue a walk. Snell reportedly did not feel like he used his fastball well enough, which resulted in the end of a career-long streak of five consecutive starts lasting six innings or longer. The 7/0 K/BB looks good in theory, however, Snell in the strike zone left a pair of pitches over the plate to Brian Dozier and Ehire Adrianza who made him pay with two homers. Be that as it may, he has posted a respectable 3.92 ERA since the All-Star Break.

Gray allowed one run (unearned) on six hits and two walks in Thursday’s win over Baltimore. He struck out five over 5-2/3 innings. Gray struggled his last time out, yet this time he pitched around eight baserunners to limit the damage. The right-hander — who limited the Rays to two-runs on seven hits over 6-1/3 innings on July 19 — is rebounding from his 2016 campaign with a 3.22 ERA/1.17 WHIP/8.6 K:9. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-11, HR, 3 RBI), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (10-26, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB)

Archer did not fare well in his last start on Friday. The righty took a loss against the Red Sox, who plated eight runs despite tossing quality fastballs and sliders. He allowed 11 of the 20 batters he faced to reach base over his three-plus innings. In that outing Archer was coming off a start in which he allowed a pair of homers in Chicago due to right-lateral forearm tightness. He threw just eight pitches.

Garcia has been largely ineffective in his time with the Yankees, and because of it, he will make only his first start in two weeks on Wednesday. In five starts with the New York, Garcia is 0-2 with an unsightly 5.11 ERA, and he has yet to make it through six innings. This season the 31 year-old southpaw has relied primarily on a 91 mph four-seam fastball, and a 91 mph sinker — both of which are real worm killers. He’s also mixed in a whiffy 84 mph changeup, an 83 mph slider with arm-side run and depth, and a 75 mph curveball. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (1-2, HR, RBI, BB), Danny Espinosa (8-21, HR, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (5-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (1-3, 2B), Trevor Plouffe (1-3)

Noteworthiness

— Lucas Duda will be making a homecoming of sorts, who will make his return to Citi Field for the first time since the late July trade to the Rays.

LBWMF: Matt Andriese, Rays allow nine runs for second consecutive day

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Like his predecessor the night before, Matt Andriese was knocked out of the game early on. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

For a second consecutive day, the Tampa Bay Rays were beaten up in Boston. Matt Andriese was knocked out in the second inning after he allowed eight runs (six earned), as the Red Sox plated nine runs for the second straight day.

Chris Archer allowed three first inning runs on Friday and, wouldn’t you know it, Andriese played follow the leader and did the same. Eduardo Nunez led off the first inning with a single to left, swiped second, then scored on Dustin Pedroia’s two-run homer into the seats over the Green Monster.

One has to question Andriese’s sequence of pitches in that at-bat, as he followed a dust-off pitch with a heater that was up and over the inner third of the plate — right in Pedroia’s juice zone.

From there, things spiraled out of control for the Rays, who appeared to be no match for the very aggressive Red Sox. One such example of Boston’s aggressiveness came with one out in the first after Mookie Betts singled, then stole second, and finally advanced to third on a Wilson Ramos throwing error. Betts, well…bet on Wilson’s arm, and won the gamble. Betts later scored on Mitch Moreland’s groundout to a confused duo of players on the right side of the infield, Adeiny Hechavarria and Danny Espinosa, neither which knew who was responsible to field the play in the shift.

When all was said and done, Boston plated nine runs on 15 hits, but just one homer. Credit where it’s due, the Sox have an approach at the plate, while the Rays don’t, hence their 0-6 wRISP on the night. Sometimes swing away and hit homers works, yet often times it doesn’t. That is to say, I’m envious of Boston. Let those words never be spoken again.

The New What Next

The Rays will try to salvage the final game of the series on Sunday with Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA, 4.18 FIP) on the mound. He will start opposite of Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67 ERA, 4.57 FIP).

Cobb held the Twins to one run on three hits and two walks while striking out seven over 5-2/3 innings on Monday night. After giving up his only run in the first inning Cobb went to work, putting down 12 of the next 13 batters on six strikeouts, a double play, and five ground ball outs — keeping the Rays in the ball game until they could break things open in the sixth inning.

Porcello continues to be victimized by the long ball, as he was taken deep three times by Toronto in his last turn; he has given up 35 homers on the season. He has now given up at least three home runs three times this season, and has given up multiple homers a whopping 10 times. Porcello has eclipsed his career high in homer runs by 10, the main reason he’s performed to a 4.67 ERA this season. After dominating the league in 2016, Porcello is 6-10 with a bloated 5.38 ERA at Fenway, and 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA in four starts (24-1/3 IP) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7), Curt Casali (3-10), Corey Dickerson (8-32, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Danny Espinosa (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (14-55, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (10-32, 3 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (10-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Mallex Smith (2-8, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (9-30, HR, RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/10/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Dickerson LF
Hechavarria SS
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Smith RF
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

— Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) writes, that if the Rays are going to salvage their season, six players have got to step up:

3B Evan Longoria. He called himself out a couple of weeks ago as the player who most needed to step up, and who are we to argue. Longoria’s numbers — .265 with 18 homers, 77 RBIs, a .756 OPS going into play Saturday — aren’t horrible, but they’re not good enough for the No. 3 hitter in the lineup who relishes the chance to be the man they can count on. “There’s definitely times when I feel like it’s clicking,” Longoria said. “It just hasn’t gone on for a prolonged period of time this year.” Like August, for example, when he hit just .240, with one home run (as part of his Aug. 1 cycle), 10 RBIs and a .677 OPS. He has been better thus far in September (.296) and did reach base multiple times in four straight games.

RHP Jake Odorizzi. Was much, much better in his last start, taking a no-hitter into the seventh against the Twins. And the Rays have to hope that is a sign he is finally back to form, because until then he had been a mess, with some questions about how much longer he’d get to stay in the rotation as he has battled injuries and inconsistency much of the season. Consider that in his previous six starts Odorizzi was 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and got past four innings only once. Odorizzi seems likely to be the designated starter to be traded this winter, as his arbitration-fueled salary, $4.1 million this year, climbs past what the Rays feel is his value, so a strong finish also can do all parties well.

2B Brad Miller

DH Lucas Duda

LF Corey Dickerson.

I didn’t plan to lump these together, but Cash did when the subject came up a week ago, and it’s still the case. “We need to get some of our lefties going, no doubt,” Cash said. “They know who they are. They are doing everything they can. It’s not for lack of work. They’re working. They’re just kind of in a little bit of a funk.”

Miller is the biggest concern because he has had the biggest dropoff, from the guy who hit .243 last year with 30 homers and 81 RBIs to the guy hitting .191 this year (around two DL stints) with seven and 31. And his struggles are only exacerbated by the success of Tim Beckham, whom the Rays traded to Baltimore at the July 31 deadline to open second base for Miller to play every day. In his first 36 games as an Oriole, Beckham hit .353 with six homers, 20 RBIs and a .965 OPS. In the same span, Miller hit .168-3-7-.608.

Duda has been something of an all-or-nothing addition from the Mets, hitting .193 as a Ray with 11 of his 22 hits for homers, and four for doubles. Worse, he went into play Saturday 8-for-his-last-56, with seven homers. Dickerson has yet to regain the first-half form, and drive, that carried him to an All-Star selection. He hit .333 with 17 homers, 39 RBIs and a .955 OPS in his first 75 games but in the 60 since is just .212-9-21-.660.

LHP Dan Jennings. Acquired to be a high-leverage lefty for this season, and two more, Jennings has not shown much to inspire confidence, with a 5.91 ERA in his first 19 appearances with the Rays. Of the first 54 batters he faced, 24 have reached base (10 walks, 14 hits). He allowed homers to lefties in back-to-back appearances (after one previously all season) and five times left without recording an out.