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The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview

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The face of the Rays is none too happy with his team’s offensive struggles. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays returned home, from a relatively quick road jaunt, where they’ll face the Seattle Mariners over the next three days, ahead of a previously scheduled off-day on Monday. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game series loss to Toronto, while Seattle took two of three from Baltimore.

(Stats: ESPN)

Hanging in playoff contention by a thread, something that has more to do with the fact that none have run away with the final Wildcard spot than it has with quality play of the Rays, a frustrated Evan Longoria opined that “losses are definitely tough at this point in the year.”

With just 39 games left of the regular season, Longoria has a point. The Rays have been hard to watch, yet here we are with a team that is still in the hunt … one with an opportunity to make up some ground against a ball club that sits ahead of them in the Wildcard standings. But time is of the essence, and the Rays cannot afford to continue to squander quality starts by the pitching staff which has worked to a 2.92 ERA over the month of August.

We’ve got to turn it around, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. You can only delay it for so long and say there’s time, there’s time. Time is of the essence. We’ve got to start playing good baseball games whether we matchup well against that team or not, forget it. We have to play good baseball.

There are a couple of bright sides. Seattle is just two games removed from a five game losing streak, and Scott Servais will start three hurlers with +4.00 ERA’s over the last 14-days. Hopefully, yes hopefully, the Rays offense can muster enough offense to take at least two-out-of-three from the M’s.

On the contrary, however, the Rays faced the Mariners in early June and were swept in a three-game series.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean in Austin Pruitt (1-2, 3.08 ERA, 4.32 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.30 ERA, 5.64 FIP), and Blake Snell (1-6, 4.78 ERA, 4.84 FIP). Scott Servais will counter with former Ray Erasmo Ramirez (4-4, 4.73 ERA, 4.61 FIP), Ariel Miranda (7-6, 4.75 ERA, 5.43 FIP), and Yovani Gallardo (4-8, 6.41 ERA, 5.50 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Pruitt notched a quality start in his last turn against Cleveland, and has turned a corner of late. Over his last three starts and (spanning 18-1/3 innings) the right-hander has allowed just four runs on 11 hits and three walks. He also has worked to a 1.96 ERA along the way.

Ramirez will face the team that traded him before the deadline for Steve Cishek. Erasmo has been spotty since the deal, going 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in three starts. He, however, is coming off his best outing with Seattle — throwing six innings of one run, three hit baseball against the Angels. But with .211 BABIP over the last 14 days, it’s safe to say Erasmo has been the beneficiary of good luck. For the sake of the Rays, who have been the recipient of bad luck over the same span, the luck dragons have got to change for both parties at some point. We all know what to expect from Ramirez: a zippy fastball, a whiffy changeup with a ton of movement, and a sinker that he tries to keep at the bottom of the zone.

Odorizzi was solid in his last start against Toronto and buckled down to control his stuff after allowing a first-inning home run. This was a good sign for the right-hander that is coming off back-to-back short outings. Odorizzi gave up a two-run homer to Josh Donaldson in the first inning, but cruised to a quality start through the next five frames. Unfortunately the Rays couldn’t come to life against Nick Tepesch, dropping Odorizzi to his sixth loss of the season.

Miranda is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA over his past seven starts. He has given up 12 home runs over that stretch. The southpaw threw a complete-game victory against Tampa Bay on June 4 in Seattle, scattering just four hits and one run with nine strikeouts. That was the only time Tampa Bay has faced Miranda. Key Matchups: Trevor Plouffe (1-2), Daniel Robertson (1-3, 3B), Steven Souza Jr. (1-4)

Snell battled through six innings in his last turn. And even though he allowed four earned runs, manager Kevin Cash said it might have been Snell’s best start of the season because of his ability to come up big the last inning when his team needed it. After Snell gave up an early run on a fluke double, the left-hander locked it in and forced weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Gallardo, the 31-year-old right-hander, is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA over his past three starts. He lasted just four innings with eight runs and two homers in his previous start against Baltimore. The former Oriole/Ranger/Brewer is 3-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays. He has not faced Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-13, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Lucas Duda (5-13, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-8), Brad Miller (5-15, 2 2B, 3B, 3 BB), Trevor Plouffe (5-17, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) is expected to rejoin the Rays on Friday.

We’re hoping all goes well, Cash said of his Thursday afternoon rehab start. He’s very, very close.

Mallex Smith likely will be optioned to Triple-A Durham to make room for Kiermaier.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) is slated to throw a bullpen session on Saturday at Tropicana Field. If all goes well, he will rejoin the rotation next week, potentially as soon as Tuesday.

— Matt Andriese (hip) started for the Charlotte Stone Crabs Thursday night in the second of three scheduled rehab outings.

LBWMF: Rays offense comes back to life in 6-4 win over the Jays

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A celebration on the infield for the first time in five days. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Good times for a change
See, the luck I’ve had
Can make a good man
Turn bad…
— Steven Patrick Morrissey, the Smiths

On Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays snapped their four-game losing streak with a momentum building 6-4 win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Southpaw Blake Snell finally earned his first win of the season, while Wilson Ramos hit his second homer in as many days.

Tampa Bay got on the board in the third inning following Daniel Robertson’s leadoff single to center. Two batters later, Lucas Duda sent a first-pitch hanging changeup, over the inner third of the plate, into right field to put the Rays up by one.

Prior to the ball game, Wilson Ramos spoke about making a tweak in his batting stance, and how he was starting to feel better at the plate — something his solo homer on Monday hinted at. There must be some truth to what he said, because on Tuesday night he made it back-to-back games with a home run after he lashed a fourth-inning liner just over the wall in left field.

Ramos continued to collect hits, and consequently went 3-4 with a run, an RBI and a walk. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come in the latter half of the season from the backstop … and none to soon.

Then two batters after Adeiny Hechavarria doubled to right, Corey Dickerson sent an RBI single to deep center, plating the Rays fourth run of the night.

Tampa Bay added to its lead an inning later, thanks in part to Marco Estrada’s lack of command. After Ramos, Logan Morrison, and Steven Souza Jr. hit three singles to load the bases, Estrada walked Adeiny Hechavarria on four pitches to drive in a run. The right-hander followed that with another RBI walk, this time to Robertson, scoring the Rays sixth run.

All told, the Rays scored six runs on 13 hits, five walks, and two errors. Equally as important though Morrison, Souza, Ramos and Robertson each put together multi-hit games. The Rays are just a month removed from being one of baseballs top five run scoring teams, and perhaps this is a harbinger of good things to come.

On the mound, Snell worked to a 6 IP/4 ER/7 H/1 BB/4 K line, which doesn’t look too impressive until you dig a little deeper.

The first run against Snell came on a weak blooper that dropped between Souza and Smith, which took a strange bounce off the turf and was misplayed by the duo — allowed Steve Pearce to score from first. The gaffe, though technically not an error, gives credence to the idea that both Souza and Smith are not only pressing at the plate, but also in the field.

From there the left-hander locked it in, forcing weak contact while keeping hitters off balance with his mix of pitches, including some particularly deadly off-speed stuff. As with his previous start, Snell played off his live fastball (53 thrown, 32 strikes), then followed with a pretty good changeup (30 thrown, 21 strikes) — both of which he moved around the zone.

Things got hairy for Snell in the bottom of the fifth. After Darwin Barney hit a single up the middle, and Jose Bautista looped a double into right, the red hot Josh Donaldson took him deep to right field on a fastball on the outside corner of the plate.

Credit Donaldson for being able to power a pitch on the periphery of the zone.

Yet Snell limited the damage, and got out of the inning with the lead intact. He came back out in the sixth inning and worked around an awkward catcher’s interference call on Ramos to throw his fourth goose egg upon the scoreboard.

Steve Cishek, Tommy Hunter and Alex Colome held Toronto scoreless over the final three frames, working to a combined 3 IP/1 H/2 K line.

The Rays won a must win game, 6-4, and look to build on the W Wednesday night.

The New What Next

Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA, 3.63 FIP) will take the mound for the Rays, pitching opposite of Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.75 FIP).

Faria was perfect through the front four innings against Cleveland on Friday, before he allowed a career-high five runs — on a homer and four horrendous fielding gaffes by Wilson Ramos and Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller. It was just the second time in his previous 12 big league starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He has gone six or more innings in 10 of those starts.

Stroman was excellent his last time out, although poor defense led to four unearned runs. The right-hander gave up all four runs in the third inning against Pittsburgh, but he shut the Pirates’ bats down the rest of the way. After struggling over a pair of recent starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 14-2/3 innings of work to lower his ERA from 3.19 to 3.00. Overall, he has generated a huge ground ball rate with his sinking fastball, and he is capable of working deeply into each game. The Rays couldn’t get much started against Stroman in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, tagging him for just three runs over 13-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/16/17 Starting Lineup

Miller 2B
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Robertson SS
Dickerson LF
Bourjos CF
Smith RF
Sucre C
Faria RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) went 0-3 with a strikeout while playing five innings for advanced Class-A Charlotte in his return to rehab. He is eyeing a return to the big league squad this weekend.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly felt better playing catch at Tropicana Field and will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday. If all goes as planned, he could rejoin the starting rotation next week.

— Matt Andriese (hip) will make the second rehab start Friday with the Stone Crabs in Port Charlotte. He is slated to make one more after that.

Tampa Bay Rays 8/15/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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The irony is not lost on me that one of the Rays who’s struggling the most plated the only run for Tampa Bay last night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays hoped to get back on track Monday after a 2-7 home stand. They, unfortunately, fell behind early and could not make up the deficit against Toronto in a 2-1 loss. The Rays have dropped eight of ten, and have scored just 12 runs during that stretch. They again hope to get back on track tonight against a much tougher hurler on the mound.

One of the more unproductive pieces of the Rays lineup, Brad Miller, spoke about the team’s offensive drought this afternoon, saying,

I think our team is tired of almost doing it … We’re all professional, we all have a lot of pride, we want to get it done.

No offense Brad, but seeing that you’ve collected just nine hits (including three doubles and a homer) in your last 64 plate appearances, not to mention that you’ve crossed the plate just four times — and driven in just four runs — during that stretch, I would imagine that you are a main contributor to the run scoring blackout.

Evan Longoria added,

It’s kind of embarrassing for lack of a better explanation. Not lack of effort, belief, coaching.

For his part, Rays manager Kevin Cash said that the time to break out of the slump is now,

The offense is going to be fine, I know people probably scratch their head when I say that, but I believe it. Time is of the essence, we need to get this going — now.

If things continue down this path, we could be looking at a different batting order. Cash defended his sticking with the same lineup, since the slump has been a group effort and not just the two-and-three hitters who have been struggling, he acknowledged changes could be in the works.

One thing is certain, with the Rays just 2-1/2 games out of the last Wildcard slot, something needs to happen.

I digress.

Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.87 FIP) will get the start Tuesday night, pitching opposite of Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85 ERA, 4.35 FIP).

Snell put together one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday, limiting Cleveland to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 6-1/3 innings. The southpaw leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Estrada was again excellent in his last time turn, and he’s now gone seven innings in three consecutive starts. The right-hander has pitched to contact of late, coaxing plenty of weak fly-ball outs. After performing to a 9.52 ERA through nine starts, Estrada has now allowed just six runs in 26 innings over his past four outings. The Rays torched Estrada for 16 runs over his previous three starts, totaling 14-1/3 innings. They hope to see the negatively regressed right-hander on Tuesday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-17, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-18, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-4), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 4 RBI), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/15/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza RF
Smith CF
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Robertson 2B
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Matt Andriese (hip) will make his second rehab start on Friday for the Stone Crabs. Kevin Kiermaier will play in center for them tonight, Wednesday, and Thursday.

— Alex Cobb (turf toe) reportedly had good day at the Trop, and could be throwing off the mound again as soon as Thursday. His potential return could be next week.

Tampa Bay Rays 8/14/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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The Rays look to hit the reset button with a series against the Blue Jays starting tonight, in Toronto. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After losing seven of their last nine games at Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays look to hit the reset button on the road. They will play the for the first of four games at the Rogers Centre tonight.

Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Nick Tepesch (0-1, 10.38 ERA, 10.99 FIP).

Odorizzi struggled with his pitch count early in his last start on Wednesday, throwing 55 pitches over the first two frames. He was struck on his heel by an Eduardo Nunez comebacker on his 89th pitch of the night. Odorizzi was helped off the field without putting any weight on his right leg, but thankfully the X-Rays on his right foot came back negative. The right-hander tested his foot in a bullpen session, and the Rays have him a green light to start Monday night in Toronto.

Tepesch allowed five runs on eight hits over 4-1/3 innings during his last start against New York. He has a temporary hold on a rotation spot until Joe Biagini is properly stretched out at Triple-A Buffalo. This season he has relied primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball, and an 86 mph slider. He’s also mixed in a 79 mph knuckle curveball, and a 90 mph sinker. Tepesch is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA over two career starts (totaling 14-1/3 innings) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchup: 2-7, HR, 2 RBI

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/14/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Longoria 3B
Morrison DH
Souza Jr RF
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Bourjos CF
Robertson SS
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith (4-for-his-last-24) will get a night off in centerfield, as will Adeiny Hechavarria (3-for-his-last-27) at shortstop.

— Chase Whitley has been recalled from Durham to provide length in the bullpen, which makes sense since Jake Odorizzi has not gone beyond five innings in four of his last five starts, and is coming off a foot injury. Jose Alvarado was optioned back to Triple-A Durham after yesterday’s ball game.

— Kevin Kiermaier went 1-for-5 yesterday in a rehab start with the Charlotte Stone Crabs, including a run-scoring triple. Matt Andriese went three-plus innings, and allowed two runs on four hits.

— The Rays are the MLB DRS leaders once again:

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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One of the few bright spots in Sunday’s ball game. Catcher Jesus Sucre scored all the way from second on Evan Longoria’s RBI hit. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays ended their latest scoreless streak Sunday afternoon, although the ultimately fell to Cleveland, 4-3. Cleveland took three of four from Tampa Bay, which dropped seven of nine during the home stand. The Rays boarded a plane for the cooler digs of Toronto, where they’ll take on the Blue Jays over the next four days.

(Stats: ESPN)

‘Cause I am barely breathing, and I can’t find the air.
— Duncan Sheik

The Rays snapped their scoreless streak at 20 innings with a third-inning RBI single by Evan Longoria, capping the number of times the Rays were shut out during the homestand at five — finishing a 17-game stretch in which the Rays played teams in playoff contention. They, however, went 6-11.

Perhaps, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) suggested, a change of scenery could do the struggling team some good. After all, they didn’t cross the plate too often at the Trop.

They scored 1.22 runs per game during the homestand — their fewest during any three-series homestand in team history.

They scored 11 runs during the nine games, which were the fewest over a nine-game stretch in the majors since the Indians scored 11 in August 2012.

Longoria’s run-scoring single was the Rays’ third hit that inning, marking the only time during the homestand they had three hits in one inning and the first time they turned that trick since Aug. 1 in Houston.

“So much has changed it seems nothing ever changes.” — The Lawrence Arms

The Rays start this crucial series against Toronto with their playoff hopes intact, but also in the balance. If the team can succeed and put together a good series — and get back over .500 — Tampa Bay could regain a foothold in an AL Wildcard chase in which the leader has changed hands over seven consecutive days (as of Sunday). However, this could also be the end of their postseason aspirations if they continue to stagnate. Dare I call it a make or break moment?

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will hand the ball off to Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP), Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.87 FIP), Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA, 3.63 FIP), and Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA, 3.17 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Nick Tepesch (0-1, 10.38 ERA, 10.99 FIP), Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85 ERA, 4.35 FIP), Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.75 FIP), and Chris Rowley (1-0, 1.69 ERA, 2.58 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi struggled with his pitch count early in his last start on Wednesday, throwing 55 pitches over the first two frames. He was struck on his heel by an Eduardo Nunez comebacker on his 89th pitch of the night. Odorizzi was helped off the field without putting any weight on his right leg, but thankfully the X-Rays on his right foot came back negative. The right-hander tested his foot in a bullpen session, and the Rays have him a green light to start Monday night in Toronto.

Tepesch allowed five runs on eight hits over 4-1/3 innings during his last start against New York. He has a temporary hold on a rotation spot until Joe Biagini is properly stretched out at Triple-A Buffalo. This season he has relied primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball, and an 86 mph slider. He’s also mixed in a 79 mph knuckle curveball, and a 90 mph sinker. Tepesch is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA over two career starts (totaling 14-1/3 innings) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchup: 2-7, HR, 2 RBI

Snell put together one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday, limiting Cleveland to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 6-1/3 innings. The southpaw leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Estrada was again excellent in his last time turn, and he’s now gone seven innings in three consecutive starts. The right-hander has pitched to contact of late, coaxing plenty of weak fly-ball outs. After performing to a 9.52 ERA through nine starts, Estrada has now allowed just six runs in 26 innings over his past four outings. The Rays torched Estrada for 16 runs over his previous three starts, totaling 14-1/3 innings. They hope to see the negatively regressed right-hander on Tuesday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-17, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-18, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-4), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 4 RBI), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Faria was perfect through the front four innings against Cleveland on Friday, before he allowed a career-high five runs — on a homer and four horrendous fielding gaffes by Wilson Ramos and Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller. It was just the second time in his previous 12 big league starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He has gone six or more innings in 10 of those starts.

Stroman was excellent his last time out, although poor defense led to four unearned runs. The right-hander gave up all four runs in the third inning against Pittsburgh, but he shut the Pirates’ bats down the rest of the way. After struggling over a pair of recent starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 14-2/3 innings of work to lower his ERA from 3.19 to 3.00. Overall, he has generated a huge ground ball rate with his sinking fastball, and he is capable of working deeply into each game. The Rays couldn’t get much started against Stroman in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, tagging him for just three runs over 13-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

Archer saw his 15-start streak of pitching at least six innings come to pass Saturday night against Cleveland, after surrendering three runs in 5-1/3 innings. Archer allowed single runs in the first, third and sixth innings, but was fairly inefficient, thus his removal one out into the sixth. The right-hander continues to collect strikeouts, and he’s consistently kept his ERA just below 4.00 over the past month and a half. He is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts against Toronto this season.

Rowley was excellent in his Major League debut on August 12, working very quickly over 5-1/3 innings, while allowing just one run on five hits. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing, but he could go longer against the Rays. According to one scouting report, Rowley is a finesse pitcher that will move the ball around the zone:

Rowley will not blow the ball by hitters. Topping out at 91-92, he relies on command and his secondaries to keep hitters off balance:

“My game is based on throwing three pitches, all at different speeds, all in the strike zone and all moving differently, and the idea is for them to look the same until they get to the plate,” said Rowley.

Still, he has managed to strike out almost a batter per inning at AA. Rowley’s 47% ground ball rate shows that he excels at keeping the ball down in the zone, and his 15.8% line drive rate is proof that while he pitches to contact, it’s not often of the hard variey.  The knock against him may be that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but the other side of that coin is that his sinker is very tough to square up, and his change and slider keep hitters off balance.