X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Rays drop fifth straight, 2-1 against Chicago

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  • I call bullshit. Avisail Garcia’s moon shot traveled further than 459 feet. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After five consecutive losses, a season-high, the Tampa Bay Rays look to salvage the final game of three against the Chicago White Sox. In losing the series to Chicago, Tampa Bay has lost a set to a team with a sub-.500 record for the first time this season.

Saturday recap:

— The Rays wasted a solid start by Ryan Yarbrough, who tossed six shutout innings while allowing two hits with no walks and five strikeouts. Tampa Bay didn’t score through six frames, and Chicago eventually won the game in extra innings. At the end of April, Yarbrough’s ERA sat at 8.10, resulting in a demotion. And while he’s had some rough outings since then, the left-hander owns a 2.75 ERA in his last 11 appearances. Since June 18, he has allowed just three runs across 27-1/3 frames (0.99 ERA). Overall, Yarbrough is 8-3 with a 3.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 58 punchouts in 75-2/3 innings (16 appearances) including five starts.

— 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position with 10 left on base. The Rays have scored just nine total runs over the life of their losing streak, and over the past six games are just 3-for-40 wRISP.

— While the Rays had plenty of opportunities to score runs (see above), they only pushed one run across on a moon shot by Avisail Garcia.

I call bullshit, that ball traveled further than the StatCast projection of 459 feet. Hadn’t the 2008 banner (which deflected the ball onto the catwalk) been there, the would have landed in the party deck, some 470 feet to 480 feet away.

— This pitch apparently broke the internet and/or physics:

— Try not to act surprised. Kevin Kiermaier exited the game with a left thumb sprain suffered on a head-first slide into first. Kiermaier had an MRI after the game which did not show a tear in the ligament, thus surgery on the injury will not be required.

The outfielder has been placed on the 10-day Injured List, while OF Guillermo Heredia has been recalled from Triple-A Durham. Kiermaier said he regrets sliding into first base, but also said he was just trying to make a play to help the team win. He hopes to be back in 10-15 days, saying the results of the MRI this morning were the “best news” he could have gotten.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA) will take the mound in the series finale, pitching opposite of Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73).

Blake Snell allowed one run on three hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out four. Snell threw an inefficient 93 pitches (56 strikes, 60% strike rate) and did not have a clean inning in his first three frames, yet his only real mistake resulted in an Edwin Encarnacion solo shot in the fourth inning. Snell exited the contest in line for his sixth win of the season. The southpaw lowered his ERA by 15 points to 4.55 and has managed a 3.82 K/BB across 95 innings on the season. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA in five career starts against Chicago (25-1/3 innings).

Dylan Cease allowed six runs (four earned) on eight hits and one walk with seven strikeouts on Tuesday. Kansas City scored two unearned runs in the first inning, yet that’s all they would need to hand Cease the loss. He displayed better control in this outing than in his first big league start, however, working more in the zone resulted in eight hits allowed. In two Major League starts, Cease owns a 5.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a 10.64 K/9 in 11 innings of work. He relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sinking action and a whiffy 85 mph slider with lots of depth, while also mixing in an 80 mph 12-6 curveball, and an 83 mph changeup with a lot of backspin and surprising cut action.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

TNWN: Rays vs ChiSox — a series preview

Rays 7/21/19 Starting Lineup

  1. Choi DH
  2. Meadows RF
  3. Pham LF
  4. Lowe 1B
  5. Diaz 3B
  6. Garcia CF
  7. Wendle 2B
  8. d’Arnaud C
  9. Adames SS

Noteworthiness

— Rays skipper Kevin Cash said Matt Duffy is on a flight back to St. Petersburg and looks to be activated at some point during the Boston series.

TNWN: Rays vs ChiSox — a series preview

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Storm clouds over the Bronx, literally and metaphorically. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a tumultuous four-game series against the Yankees in the Brox, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Chicago White Sox for a three-game series, starting Friday night. The Rays are in the throes of a three-game skid, while the White Sox have lost seven in a row.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays started their previous eight-game road trip on a high note, winning four out of five games. Yet they dropped three in a row to New York, due in large part to their inability to keep the ball in the park. Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay’s hurlers relinquished 13 home runs, including 10 in the Bronx. They have got to do better against Chicago.

They’ll welcome in a slumping team that is scoring an average of 4.23 runs per game (27th in the big leagues), while Chicago’s pitching staff holds a weak 5.18 ERA (also 27th in the Majors). The White Sox are 17-32 on the road and were swept at home by Tampa Bay earlier in the season.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tampa Bay starts the series eight games back of the Yankees in the AL East and currently out of the playoff field, and tied with Oakland for the last Wildcard start. The team must start playing better baseball if they are going to get back in the race in earnest, and that all starts now.

As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) wrote, Tampa Bay has won more than 70 percent of its games against sub-.500 teams. Over the next five weeks, the Rays play all but two series (both against Boston) against the teams that are below the break-even mark. While that doesn’t guarantee anything, especially tonight after playing a doubleheader yesterday and getting home at about 5 a.m, the White Sox have dropped seven straight and nine of 10. Be that as it may, they were able to beat up on the Orioles (a team they should have beaten) last week, and they will look to do the same against another scuffling ballclub.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Brendan McKay (1-0, 1.69 ERA), likely Ryan Yarbrough (8-3, 4.26 ERA), and Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA). Rick Renteria will counter with Reynaldo López (4-8, 5.97 ERA), Lucas Giolito (11-4, 3.23 ERA), and Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Brendan McKay allowed three hits while striking out seven across five scoreless innings in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader. McKay once again looked poised and in total control, throwing 61 of 86 pitches for strikes (71% strike rate), with 20 swinging strikes (23% SwStr). According to ESPN, the left-hander had a 122 Game Score, which makes this the 17th-best single-game performance in the American League this season by that metric.

Reynaldo López allowed one unearned run on three hits and two walks across six innings on Sunday against the A’s. He struck out seven. Lopez was dominant during his outing, allowing just two runners to reach second base in this quality start. Lopez narrowly missed out on a win, yet it was a great bounce-back performance nevertheless after he surrendered seven runs in his last outing. López was hammered by the Rays earlier in the season, allowing eight runs on 10 hits (including three homers) across 4-1/3 innings of work. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3), Ji-Man Choi (1-2, 2B, BB), Yandy Diaz (1-2, BB), Avisail Garcia (2-3, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-5, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2, 2B, BB), Austin Meadows (2-3, HR, RBI), Tommy Pham (2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI)

Ryan Yarbrough was excellent on Sunday, allowing one run on two hits while striking out six over 6-1/3 innings. Yarbrough carried a combined perfect game into the ninth inning before he surrendered a run in the bottom of the frame on a single to right field. The 27-year-old southpaw has thrown the ball well of late, relinquishing just three runs over his last five appearances (21-1/3 innings) while fanning 19. Yarbrough is 0-0 with an 8.44 ERA in one career outing (5-1/3 innings) against the White Sox.

Lucas Giolito gave up three runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out five across six innings on Monday. Giolito coaxed 10 swinging strikes in the hard-luck loss quality start. Giolito had dominated Kansas City in his career, posting a 6-0 record with a 2.13 ERA coming into this contest. Even with the loss, it was a bounce-back outing for Giolito after he allowed six runs in his previous start against the Cubs. Giolito has an 11-4 record with a 3.23 ERA, a 10.6 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9 (3.21 K/BB) through 18 starts this season. He is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay (14 innings). Key Matchup: Travis d’Arnaud (1-3, HR, RBI)

Blake Snell allowed one run on three hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out four. Snell threw an inefficient 93 pitches (56 strikes, 60% strike rate) and did not have a clean inning in his first three frames, yet his only real mistake resulted in an Edwin Encarnacion solo shot in the fourth inning. Snell exited the contest in line for his sixth win of the season. The southpaw lowered his ERA by 15 points to 4.55 and has managed a 3.82 K/BB across 95 innings on the season. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA in five career starts against Chicago (25-1/3 innings).

Dylan Cease allowed six runs (four earned) on eight hits and one walk with seven strikeouts on Tuesday. Kansas City scored two unearned runs in the first inning, yet that’s all they would need to hand Cease the loss. He displayed better control in this outing than in his first big league start, however, working more in the zone resulted in eight hits allowed. In two Major League starts, Cease owns a 5.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a 10.64 K/9 in 11 innings of work. He relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sinking action and a whiffy 85 mph slider with lots of depth, while also mixing in an 80 mph 12-6 curveball, and an 83 mph changeup with a lot of backspin and surprising cut action.

Noteworthiness

⁠— Matt Duffy (hamstring, back) played the ninth (and presumably final) game of his rehab assignment for Triple-A Durham on Thursday, going 4-for-5. He is on schedule to make his season debut during this series. Duffy, who played shortstop on Wednesday and was back at third Thursday, went 10-for-32 over the life of the rehab assignment.

⁠— The severity of the bruise to Brandon Lowe’s right leg from fouling off a ball on July 2 could keep him sidelined through the homestand that ends Wednesday.

— In order to make room for Brendan McKay on the 25-man roster, the Rays optioned RHP Hunter Wood.

Tampa Bay Rays first-half report

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All-Star infielder Brandon Lowe leads the Rays with 16 home runs on the season.

With 91 games in the books, the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the ceremonial second half on Friday in second place in the American League East 6-1/2 games behind the Yankees, with a 52-39 record. Let’s take a look at how the Rays did over the first half of the season.

Below, you will find team specific summaries as well as those broken down by players — both offensive numbers as well as those from the mound. I kept a written synopsis to an absolute minimum and let the charts (some of which were created by me, while others were pilfered) speak for themselves.

(Credit: FanGraphs)
Games over/under .500.
Rays first half wRISP.
Rays first half BABIP.
Rays first half wOBA.
Rays Statcast hitting. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)
Rays batted ball profile. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)
Rays Statcast pitching. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)
(Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)
(Screen Grab: Baseball Prospectus)
(Screen Grab: Baseball Prospectus)

Rays look to cap homestand with a win; on attendance, Alvarado, Castillo, and Duffy

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The Rays have seen big crowds at the old big top the last six days, and another is expected this afternoon. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After a magnificent, 4-3 walk-off win over New York, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to gain another game on the AL East-leading Yankees before the All-Star Break this afternoon. A victory would give the Rays a series split and a winning homestand.

The walk-off win was the second for Tampa Bay this season and the third victory for the Rays in 12 tries against New York. A few key events led up to the Rays win.

Blake Snell allowed one run on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts across five innings of work. Even though he didn’t get the win, Snell followed his 12-strikeout performance from his last start with another stellar, albeit labor intensive, outing. The Yankees worked the hurler over his 93 pitch (62 strikes, 67% strike rate) outing, yet Snell certainly didn’t get any help from the home plate umpire, who made more than a few egregious calls.

(vs. RHH; green dots are balls, red are strikes)
(vs. LHH; green dots are balls, red are strikes)

For the fifth time in his last seven appearances, Snell averaged more than a strikeout per inning, as he lowered his ERA to 4.70 ERA with 122 strikeouts across 90 innings.

Chaz Rowe, doppelgänger of the singer for System of a Down, actually pitched well in the sixth inning. He notched three strikeouts (two swinging) while walking one on a beefy, yet effective, 24 pitches (13 strikes, 54% strike rate). Why? Because “he wanted too.”

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1147630350908215297

I guess you could say that Roe had his slider working on Saturday.

Down by one in the seventh inning, Nate Lowe hit his second homer of the season, a two-run blast to right field, giving the Rays a 3-2 lead.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1147640208663257088
https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147639152885850113

Colin Poche got within a strike of his first big league save, yet Aaron Hicks spoiled the occasion, hitting a two-out, 0-2 solo shot in the top of the ninth. However, Travis d’Arnaud ultimately had the last laugh, hitting his own two-strike, two-out solo homer into the first row of the right-field seats — capping the ballgame with Dan Johnson-like heroics.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1147652586037624832
https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147651416464461826

On Attendance

Tropicana Field has now played host to six consecutive games of 20-thousand plus baseball fans (yesterday’s attendance: 21,477), allowing the Rays to increase their per game attendance average to 15,385 — a difference of 802 fans per game over this time last season. They are one of just thirteen teams in the league whose attendance has increased over last season. In fact, the Yankees have seen their average attendance drop by 2,923 fans per game. A modest increase? Absolutely, but positive change is positive change, and I’ll take it.

Furthermore, Tampa Bay hit the 20-thousand home attendance mark for the time this season with another big crowd is expected this afternoon. For context, 20-thousand plus fans attended just nine of the 81 home ballgames last season. Tampa Bay IS a big league market…thank you fans for proving that point. Now, let’s keep things going after the All-Star Break.

The New What Next

All-Star Charlie Morton (9-2, 2.35 ERA) will start for the Rays in the series finale against New York, pitching opposite of James Paxton (5-3, 4.09 ERA).

Charlie Morton was dominant in his outing against Baltimore, allowing one earned run on four hits and a walk while striking out 12 across seven innings. Morton’s sole blemish of the contest came on a third-inning solo homer by Chris Davis, otherwise, he held the Orioles without an extra-base hit and didn’t allow a baserunner into scoring position until his final inning of work. It was his second double-digit strikeout performance of the season, and he’s now racked up 132 strikeouts across 107 innings of work. Morton has also supplied All-Star ratios, managing a 2.36 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

James Paxton allowed one earned run on eight hits and two walks while striking out three across six innings on Tuesday. Paxton surrendered just a solo home run to J.D. Davis in his outing — only his second quality start in seven chances since coming off the IL in late May. Paxton was unable to generate much deception with his pitches, recording just 12 swinging strikes on 103 total pitches (12% SwStr). The left-hander is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against the Rays, and 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts at the Trop. Key Matchup: Avisail Garcia (3-5, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part four

Rays 7/7/19 Starting Lineup

  1. d’Arnaud 1B
  2. Pham LF
  3. Diaz 3B
  4. Garcia RF
  5. Lowe DH
  6. Brosseau 2B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are expected to place Jose Alvarado on the injured list today with a right oblique strain. The left-hander could be out two to six weeks depending upon the results of an MRI scheduled for today. Alvarado would be the 18th different player on the IL for Tampa Bay this season.

— Matt Duffy (hamstring) played five innings for the Gulf Coast League Rays on Friday and went 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI. After an off-day today, Duffy will likely play seven innings on Monday with the Charlotte Stone Crabs.

What he’s said to me is he feels the best he has all season long, so hopefully no setbacks, get him off and get him running. Let’s see how these first three, four games go before we start thinking when it’s time. He still has work to do timing-wise, but we’re thrilled he’s feeling better.

— Kevin Cash

— High leverage reliever Diego Castillo threw a 15-pitch live bullpen session with third baseman Matt Duffy standing in prior to Saturday’s contest against the Yankees.

Castillo, who has been sidelined with right shoulder inflammation since June 23, hit 98-100 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. He will pitch on Tuesday for the Stone Crabs and could rejoin Tampa Bay on Friday, in Baltimore.

He’s going to take a couple of days off and will throw an inning on Tuesday, and if all goes well, we’ll anticipate him being activated for Friday in Baltimore.

— Kevin Cash


7/5/19 pregame notes; Rays draw +20K fans for the fourth consecutive game and 13th time this season

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In spite of a late, game-tying rally, the Rays dropped the series opener against the Yankees on the Fourth of July, 8-4. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After an 8-4, extra-inning loss on Independence Day, the Tampa Bay Rays will try and figure out a way to overcome the Yankees on Friday night. The Rays have lost five consecutive games against the Yankees and eight-of-ten this season. New York enters play with the best record American League, having gone 28-7 within the division.

After winning four consecutive ballgames, the Rays have dropped two in a row while allowing 17 runs. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, 11 of those 17 runs have come in the final inning of those two games.

On the bright side, the Trop has now hosted four consecutive games of 20-thousand plus baseball fans, allowing the Rays to increase their average attendance to 15,099 per game — a difference of 455 fans per game over this time last season. They are one of just twelve teams in the league whose attendance has increased over last season. In fact, the Yankees have seen their average attendance fall by 2,923 fans per game. A modest increase? Absolutely, but positive change is positive change, and I’ll take it.

Furthermore, Tampa Bay has hit the 20-thousand home attendance mark 13 times in 2019, and we aren’t at the halfway point yet. For context, 20-thousand plus fans attended just nine of 81 home ballgames last season.

If the Rays can net at least 21-thousand fans over the final three games of this homestand, they will end the ceremonial first half of the season with an average attendance of 16,499, putting them between Oakland and Pittsburgh…but more importantly, above the lowest two teams.

To the Tampa Bay Rays, thank you for the family-friendly promotions and affordable ticket flash sales — they, indeed, are showing returns at the gate. Giving away free flags is also a good start, although we shouldn’t be happy until this town is painted with sunbursts and Rays signage. To the fans, I know it’s been a tough slog with the owner proclaiming doom and gloom, and making inflammatory proclamations that do nothing more than pit fan against fan, and municipality against municipality (and yes, I still think the sister season concept is nothing more than a leverage ploy). Good on all of us for keeping our head down and focused on something other than Stu.

Let’s continue to push those attendance numbers up. Get out to the ballpark and show Sternberg that WE CAN support our guys! At the end of the day, WE are on the up and up regardless of what anyone says about us.

The New What Next

Brendan McKay (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his second big league start tonight, pitching opposite of Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.74 ERA).

Brendan McKay pitched six scoreless innings in his big league debut, allowing just one hit (tracked at 66.5 mph off the bat) and one walk with three punch outs. The left-hander took a perfect game into the sixth inning when he gave up two baserunners. McKay’s curveball was especially sharp, as he held Texas to 1-for-18 on his breaking pitch and generated 11 swings and misses.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed six runs on four hits and two walks across 2/3 of an inning on Saturday. He did not record a strikeout. The first game in London saw neither team’s starter make it out of the opening frame, with Tanaka delivering his worst start of the season by a significant margin. The 30-year-old now has a 3.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 3.70 K/BB over 98-2/3 innings this season. Tanaka has been very tough against the Rays this season, going 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA in three starts (22 IP). Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-12, 2B, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (1-4), Kevin Kiermaier (8-31, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (4-15, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Joey Wendle (3-8, 2B 2 RBI), Mike Zunino (5-19, 2 2B, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part four

Rays 7/5/19 Starting Lineup

    null
  1. Meadows RF
  2. Pham LF
  3. Kiermaier CF
  4. Diaz DH
  5. Lowe 1B
  6. Adames SS
  7. Wendle 2B
  8. Brosseau 3B
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are expected to have Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup tonight. Kiermaier has missed the last two games because of wrist soreness.

— Matt Duffy went 1-for-2 yesterday in a rehab outing with the Gulf Coast League Rays and played third base for five innings. He is scheduled to DH today.

—Brandon Lowe was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday.