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TNWN: Rays vs Astros — a series preview, part two

August 27, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Try as they might, but Austin Meadows and the Rays couldn’t adequately chip away at the Orioles lead in Baltimore, on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After leaving Baltimore with a series split in a four-game set against the Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays make their way to Houston, where they will start an important three-game series against the Astros on Tuesday. The Astros are coming off a three-game sweep against the Angels.

Tampa Bay ended its highly-winnable 21-game stretch against sub .500 ballclubs with a respectable, albeit disappointing, 13-8 record.

However, all is not lost. The Rays playoff odds remain decent: FanGraphs gives them a 59.6% chance of reaching the postseason, while Baseball Prospectus gives them a more favorable 69.4% chance.

Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is done with the fluffy part of the schedule, and on to the final 30 games of the season — of which, the Rays will play 11 games against contenders or +.500 teams. Over the next week, they will face Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zach Greinke, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber — all of whom rank in the top ten of baseball this season.

The two upcoming series against Houston and Cleveland will be incredibly important as it relates to the Wildcard crunch, especially the weekend series against a team the Rays need to beat.

The Rays took three of four from the Astros in the Opening Series of the season, but are 9-8 at Minute Maid Park since 2014.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Charlie Morton (13-5, 2.85 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA), and likely Trevor Richards (4-12, 4.30 ERA). A. J. Hinch will counter with Justin Verlander (15-5, 2.77 ERA), Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.75 ERA), and Zack Greinke (14-4, 2.83 ERA).

Charlie Morton allowed three runs on four hits and two walks with three strikeouts across five innings against the Mariners on Wednesday. The right-hander probably pitched better than that line indicates, although three hits, a walk, and hit batsman in the fourth inning led to three runs. The Rays reclaimed the lead before Morton left, yet the bullpen coughed it up in the ninth inning, costing him the win. Morton remains 13-5 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts across 161 innings this season.

Justin Verlander tossed a complete game against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing just two hits while striking out 11. It was the definition of a hard-luck loss, as Verlander went the distance with two solo shots representing the only hits against him. He wound up taking his fifth loss of the season as his teammates only managed one run of support. It still doesn’t take away from the spectacular season the 36-year-old right-hander is putting together, as Verlander now sports a 2.77 ERA, an 0.81 WHIP, and a 7.03 K/BB across 178-2/3 innings this season. Verlander is 9-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 19 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (4-6), Avisail Garcia (8-32, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Austin Meadows (1-3, HR, RBI), Tommy Pham (1-3), Joey Wendle (3-6, 2 2B, RBI)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs (one earned) on three hits with five strikeouts across 4-1/3 rain-shortened innings against the Orioles on Thursday. The southpaw gave up a pair of runs in the first inning, but that was it, as he shut the door over the next 3-1/3 frames. Yarbrough owns a 0.75 ERA with 28 strikeouts in his last 24 innings. Overall, he is 11-3 with a 3.29 ERA (down from 8.10 in April), an 0.87 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts across 109-1/3 innings this season. Yarbs is 0-1 with a 1.42 ERA in one career start (6-1/3 innings of work) against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole held the Tigers scoreless on Thursday while striking out 12 over seven innings. He allowed two hits and one walk. Despite being shelved more than two weeks with hamstring soreness, the right-hander hit 99 mph in the first inning and his velo stayed high all night. Cole’s sixth-inning strikeout of Jake Rogers — his 10th of the game — matched a franchise record of 14 games in one season with 10 punchouts or more. Cole now owns a ridiculous 2.75 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 5.95 K/BB on the season. He is 0-2 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (2-5, RBI, BB), Ji-Man Choi (1-3, 2 RBI, BB), Travis d’Arnaud (4-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (8-15, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Joey Wendle (2-5, 2 RBI)

Trevor Richards tossed six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and one walk with five strikeouts on 83 pitches (55 strikes, 66% strike rate). All of the Orioles “damage” against Richards came in a 25-pitch first inning before the right-hander settled in. From the second inning on, he threw 58 total pitches and kept Baltimore’s hitters off-balance thanks to his mix of fastballs and changeups, with a few sliders and curveballs thrown in for good measure. Richards is off to a strong start with Tampa Bay. In two starts since being acquired from Miami, Richards has allowed two runs over 9-1/3 innings. Overall, he is 4-12 with a 4.30 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, with 114 strikeouts across 121-1/3 innings.

Zack Greinke allowed three runs (two earned) on 10 hits over 6-2/3 innings on Friday. He struck out only one. The right-hander was far from dominant, coaxing just six swinging strikes on 96 pitches (63 total strikes, 66% strike rate, 6% SwStr) on the night, yet he was able to avoid serious damage despite all the balls in play. Greinke has yet to lose in a Houston uniform, going 4-0 in four starts, and carries an overall 2.83 ERA and 5.35 K/BB through 171-2/3 innings. The right-hander is 4-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (2-8, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (3-12, 2B, RBI, BB), Charlie Morton (1-2), Eric Sogard (1-4, 2B, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Our condolences go out to the family of Vince Namoli, the former owner and CEO of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Namoli, without whom there wouldn’t be big league baseball in Tampa Bay, passed away at age 81 on Sunday night.

The St. Petersburg businessman had been part of unsuccessful bids to purchase and relocate the Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants, yet he landed an American League expansion franchise in 1995 that began to play in 1998 — ending region’s two-decade-long pursuit to join Major League Baseball

Namoli sold the club to a group led by current Rays principal Stuart Sternberg in 2004 and relinquished control after the 2005 season.

— Tyler Glasnow is set to throw live batting practice on Tuesday, and could rejoin the team out of the bullpen in early September.

— Brendan McKay has been placed on the seven-day Minor League Injured List at Durham with shoulder fatigue, retroactive to August 23rd. It is expected to be a minimal stay, and McKay played catch at 90 feet on Monday; he is expected to miss one start.

Rays 8/23/19 pregame notes

August 23, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

For Player’s Weekend 2019, the Rays will be wearing Puffy approved all white jerseys. Player’s Weekend starts tonight.

After a rain lengthened 5-2 win over the Orioles last night, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to win their third consecutive ballgame Friday night. The Rays enter play in a virtual tie with Oakland for the top Wildcard spot, and 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland for the final postseason spot. The Athletics swept their series against the Yankees while Cleveland was swept by the Mets.

Per FanGraphs, the Rays start the day with a 65% chance of a postseason berth. Baseball Prospectus gives them a more favorable 77.7% chance of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Avisail Garcia (oblique) played in a rehab game with Triple-A Durham yesterday, going 2-for-3. He’s expected to be activated tomorrow when eligible.

The New What Next

Trevor Richards (0-0, 5.40 ERA) will make his second appearance and start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Ty Blach (0-1, 12.06 ERA).

Trevor Richards allowed two runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out six over 3-1/3 innings on Sunday. The right-hander surrendered a two-run homer in the first inning, yet he was able to hold Detroit off the board for the remainder of his outing. He was lifted with 71 pitches (51 strikes, 72% strike rate), as the Rays continue to build him back up to a starting role. Richards now owns a 4.53 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP with a 2.10 K/BB across 115-1/3 big league innings this season.

Ty Blach allowed five runs on five hits with three walks and six strikeouts across 5-1/3 innings against the Red Sox on Sunday. Baltimore staked Blach to a six-run lead, but the Red Sox scored 13 of the final 14 runs in the game, five of which came against Blach. He has allowed at least five runs in three of his four outings this season, so that’s led to some ugly numbers. He is 0-1 with a 12.06 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and 10 walks across 15-2/3 innings this season. Blach relies upon a heavy 90 mph four-seam fastball with arm-side run and an 80 mph changeup with natural sink, while also mixing in a 76 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and an 83 mph worm-killer slider.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part six

Rays 8/23/19 Starting Lineup

Duffy 3B
Pham LF
Meadows DH
Aguilar 1B
Adames SS
Brosseau 2B
Kiermaier CF
Heredia RF
Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— As I wrote yesterday, neither Brandon Lowe nor Yandy Diaz will be returning this season from their respective injuries.

Rays Roster Moves: Brandon Lowe out for the remainder of the season

— The Rays have reinstated Anthony Banda from 60-day IL (his thrice-extended rehab was up) and optioned him to Triple-A Durham, where he was rehabbing. To make room on the 40-man roster for Banda, INF Brandon Lowe was placed on the 60-day Injured List. Lowe has been out since July 3, and likely done for the season, so the move doesn’t impact him.

TNWN: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview, part two

August 19, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Pure joy Choi. Rays 1B/DH hit a two-run walk-off single on Sunday to cap a series win against the Detroit Tigers. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After taking two out of three from the Detroit Tigers, including a pair of walk-off wins, the Tampa Bay Rays play welcome to the Mariners — a team they swept in Seattle a week ago — who will visit the Trop for the first and only time this season. The Mariners took two out of three from the Blue Jays this weekend past.

True, Tampa Bay hasn’t lit up the scoreboard of late, however, they have won seven of 10, while averaging 4.2 runs per game along the way. The luck dragons have nipped at the Rays heels, limiting the ballclub to a .268 BABIP over the last 14 days — 39 points under their season mark of .307. Their luck has changed before, and their luck should change again.

Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has performed well over that stretch, allowing 3.4 runs per game on average while limiting the opposition to four runs or fewer eight times over that stretch. Not bad for a pitching staff that has been hit hard by injuries.

In contrast, the Mariners have won just five of their last 10 games, although they have outscored the Rays over that span by two runs (44). Seattle’s bullpen, one of its biggest weak spots, has been awful the last 14 days, maintaining a combined 4.90 ERA and 5.10 FIP.

The Mariners are a beatable team, and the Rays have fared well against sub .500 teams this season, and especially of late going 9-4. Regardless of the offensive lag, Tampa Bay needs to win at least five of the next seven games before the team faces competitive opponents at the end of the month. That all starts now.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Brendan McKay (2-2, 5.08 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Tuesday’s contest, and Charlie Morton (13-5, 2.77 ERA). Scott Servais is expected to counter with Marco Gonzales (12-10, 4.26 ERA), Tommy Milone (2-7, 4.69 ERA), and Wade LeBlanc (6-7, 5.40 ERA).

Brendan McKay gave up four runs on five hits and six walks while striking out seven across four innings against the Padres. McKay entered the game having issued just three walks over 29-2/3 innings but doubled that amount in his four frames against San Diego. He wasn’t efficient, throwing only 45 of 83 pitches for strikes (54% strike rate) although he made batters miss when he did get the ball over the plate, collecting seven strikeouts among the 12 total outs he recorded. The left-hander now sports an unsightly 5.08 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 4.44 K/BB over 33-2/3 innings.

Marco Gonzales allowed three runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings against the Tigers on Wednesday. The first three innings looked ugly, as Gonzales allowed eight hits and three runs. Yet the 27-year-old pitched to contact and worked his way out of trouble to turn in a quality start. Gonzales has pitched at least six innings in 16 starts this season, although he has a 4.26 ERA with 116 strikeouts. The left-hander was good against the Rays on August 9, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out nine in 6-1/3 innings of work. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (3-8, HR, 3 RBI), Michael Brosseau (1-3, RBI), Matt Duffy (3-8, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3), Austin Meadows (1-3), Tommy Pham (1-2, BB)

TBA

Tommy Milone allowed two runs on six hits, with no walks and three strikeouts across four innings against the Tigers on Thursday. Matt Wisler opened the game, while no Seattle pitcher threw more than an inning other than Milone. Milone enters play with a 4.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts across 78-2/3 innings (16 appearances), which includes five starts this season. The Rays beat up on Milone on August 10, tagging the southpaw for five runs on six hits (including three home runs) across four innings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Jesus Aguilar (1-2), Michael Brosseau (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (3-4, HR, RBI), Mike Zunino (5-10, 3 HR, 6 RBI, BB)

Charlie Morton gave up an unearned run on three hits over seven innings while striking out 10 against the Tigers on Friday. Matt Duffy’s fourth-inning error led to the only blemish on Morton’s line and stuck him with his second loss in three August starts. Still, the right-hander has been outstanding since the beginning of July, fanning double-digit batters in five of his nine turns with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 8.22 K/BB over 56 innings. Morton allowed four runs on nine hits against the Mariners on August 10, while striking out nine over six innings.

Wade LeBlanc allowed seven runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out three over seven innings against the Blue Jays on Friday. LeBlanc entered the contest in the second inning with a two-run lead, but he was rocked for three runs in the second, three in the third and another in the seventh en route to a 7-3 loss. He’s now been saddled with four consecutive losses and sits with an unimpressive 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 76 strikeouts over 105 innings this season. Nevertheless, LeBlanc was very good against Tampa Bay on August 11, allowing one run on five hits (including a homer) over six innings of work. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (2-3), Micahel Brosseau (1-3), Travis d’Arnaud (1-3), Tommy Pham (2-6, HR, RBI), Eric Sogard (3-5, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays enter play a game behind Cleveland for the first AL Wildcard spot, and 1-1/2 games ahead of the Athletics for the second Wildcard spot.

Per FanGraphs, they improved their chances of a postseason berth to 74.3%. Baseball Prospectus views Tampa Bay similarly, giving the Rays a 78.2% chance of a playoff berth.

— Both Joey Wendle (wrist) and Brandon Lowe (shin) were back at the Trop after their rehabilitation assignments in Port Charlotte. The infielders are said to be feeling much better, and will fly to Durham Monday afternoon to join the Durham Bulls beginning Tuesday. If all goes as planned, they can rejoin the big league squad by the end of the week.

Rays look to bounce back from the disappointing 2-0 loss against Le Tigre

August 17, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays will take on the Tigers on throwback night at the Trop.

After a frustrating 2-0 loss against the Detroit Tigers on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back on the winning side of the ledger tonight at the Trop. Tampa Bay enters play two games back of Cleveland for the top Wildcard spot, but just a half-game ahead of the Athletics, who won 3-2 over Houston, for the final Wildcard spot.

Even though Tampa Bay boasts Major League Baseball’s best road record of 40-23, the team is just 31-29 at home. They have dropped three of their past four home games, and have been held scoreless in two of those contests. Overall, the Rays have not scored in 17 consecutive innings since Tommy Pham’s first-inning two-run homer against San Diego on Wednesday.

Making last night’s game all the more frustrating, a questionable strike three call made by the home plate umpire, which was the difference between a two-out, bases-loaded scoring situation and the end of the ballgame. With two on, Erik Sogard worked the count full against a struggling Joe Jimenez, only to be called out on strikes on what clearly appeared to be ball four.

There’s “strike” 3 on #Rays Sogard pic.twitter.com/n7mQFie91R
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) August 17, 2019

And while a different outcome in at-bat wouldn’t necessarily have born fruit, it would have been nice to see the Rays get one more shot at a walk-off against the worst team in baseball.

Taking the last two losses into consideration, the Rays playoff hopes dropped to 69.5% per FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus has Tampa Bay at a more favorable, albeit diminished, 76.9% chance of a postseason berth.

The New What Next

Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.56 ERA) will get the ball for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jordan Zimmerman (1-8, 7.13 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough threw 8-2/3 superb shutout innings against Seattle, scattering three hits and walking none. He struck out eight. Yarbrough needed just 99 pitches (73 strikes, 74% strike rate) to deliver 26 outs but was denied his first career complete game and shutout when manager Kevin Cash turned to closer Emilio Pagan to retire the final batter of the game. Pitching as a traditional starter for the first time in four outings, the southpaw flummoxed Seattle’s hitters all afternoon, allowing only a trio of singles and preventing any Mariner from reaching scoring position. The 27-year-old has now allowed one run or fewer in 13 of his 20 appearances this season and has not been charged with a loss since giving up five runs on June 13. He maintains a 3.56 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 6 K/BB over 98-2/3 innings. Yarbrough is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in a three-inning appearance against the Tigers.

Jordan Zimmermann earned his first win of the season almost 20 days ago after he gave up two just earned runs on four hits against the Angels across 5-1/3 inning outing. He struck out two. Zimmermann, however, was placed on the 10-day IL six days later with neck spasms. It’s been a rough season for Zimmermann, who was winless over his first 13 starts of the season. He returns to the mound sporting a 7.23 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 66 innings. Accordingly, Zimmermann has been the opposite of stellar over his career at the Trop, going 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA in four starts. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (1-3), Ji-Man Choi (2-4, 2B), Travis d’Arnaud (5-17, 2B, RBI), Matt Duffy (4-7), Guillermo Heredia (2-3), Kevin Kiermaier (6-11, 2B, HR, RBI), Erik Sogard (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Tigers — a series preview, part two

Rays 8/17/19 Starting Lineup

Sogard 2B
Pham LF
Meadows RF
Aguilar DH
Choi 1B
Duffy 3B
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS
Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— On the rehabilitation front, Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle are expected to play today and tomorrow for the Charlotte Stone Crabs. Both then will join the Durham Bulls on Tuesday after an off-day on Monday.

— As expected, RHP Trevor Richards has been added to the taxi squad, in expectation that he will be recalled Sunday. Richards will wear number 34.

TNWN: Rays vs Tigers — a series preview, part two

August 16, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays look to keep their streak, of three consecutive games with a first inning home run, alive against the Tigers this weekend. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a successful 5-1 west coast road trip, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will start a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Friday. The Rays took two-of-three from the Padres, while the Tigers dropped two-of-three against the Mariners.

Detroit hasn’t had many bright spots this season, although INF/OF Brandon Dixon is in the midst of a decent campaign, hitting a team-leading 14 home runs along with 43 RBI and a .261 batting average. He is 3-for-12 with one run batted in against Tampa Bay this season.

Yet one player does not a team make. The Tigers weak lineup is second to last in all of baseball, scoring an average of 3.67 runs per game. The pitching staff isn’t much better, posting an overall 5.23 ERA and 4.88 FIP (starters 5.26 ERA and 4.68 FIP, relievers 5.14 ERA and 5.14 FIP). The Tigers, who according to Fangraphs could be a historically bad team, own a 19-39 road record.

The Tigers Might Be Historically Bad

Detroit’s pitching staff has squandered at least five runs in eight out of their last ten games, while Tampa Bay has plated at least five runs in four out of their last six games overall.

The injury-stricken Rays have managed to score consistently of late, and enter play with a two-game cushion over the Athletics in the American League Wildcard race.

FanGraphs gives the Rays an 81.5% chance of a playoff berth, while Baseball Prospectus gives them a far more favorable 90.3% shot of making the postseason.

The Rays took two of three over the Tigers in Detroit earlier this season.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (13-4, 2.90 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.56 ERA), and a pitcher to be named ahead of the series finale. Ron Gardenhire will counter with Daniel Norris (3-10, 4.94 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Saturday’s contest, and Matthew Boyd (6-9, 4.38 ERA).

Charlie Morton allowed four runs on nine hits over six innings against Seattle on Saturday. He struck out 10. For the fifth time this season, Morton recorded double-digit whiffs, while Saturday marked the sixth time he didn’t walk a batter. Morton did give up a fifth-inning homer to Omar Narvaez, however, the bullpen allowed just one baserunner over the final three frames to preserve the win for Uncle Charlie. The right-hander has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 184 strikeouts across 149 innings this season and is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers.

Daniel Norris allowed four runs on four hits and two walks while striking out four across three short innings against the Royals on Sunday. Norris was hit hard in the first three innings, allowing two solo homers in the first inning and allowing a two-run shot in the third frame. With Norris nearing his innings limit, this could be the way he is used for the balance of the season. The southpaw has a 4.94 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 21 starts this season. Norris is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3), Travis d’Arnaud (1-2, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Guillermo Heredia (5-8, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, 2B, RBI), Austin Meadows (1-3, RBI), Erik Sogard (1-2)

TBA

Matthew Boyd allowed seven runs (six earned) over 5-1/3 innings of work on Tuesday against the Mariners. He gave up seven hits and walked two while striking out four. Boyd was victimized four times by Seattle long balls…and the home run ball has been a big problem for Boyd. He was tagged for three homers in his last start, in which he allowed five runs in over 2-2/3 innings. On the season, Boyd has now allowed 30 home runs across 146 innings, and his ERA climbed to 4.38 after the rough start Tuesday. Over his career, Boyd is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (3-4, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Infielders Joey Wendle and Brandon Lowe began their rehab assignments in a game Thursday with the Gulf Coast League Charlotte Stone Crabs. They should be back with the big league squad at some point over the next seven days.