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The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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Adeiny Hechavarria gave the Rays some much needed cushion on Sunday, hitting a two-run homer in the seventh inning. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tampa Bay salvaged the final game of a three-game series with Seattle, blanking the Mariners 3-0 on Sunday behind an excellent start by Blake Snell. The Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Tuesday. This will be the last series between the the pair this season.

(Stats: ESPN)

In all fairness, the Rays should have won the previous series, if not for a controversial managing decision by Kevin Cash, who left Jake Odorizzi in the Saturday’s ball game six-batters, three-runs and two-outs too long. Aside from Friday night’s loss, and excepting Odorizzi’s performance on Saturday, Tampa Bay played much better during the last series than they had the past two … even if the stats don’t bare that out. Perhaps Kevin Kiermaier really is adding that much needed spark going into the upcoming set with Toronto — which could be viewed as a bellwether for the Rays, who need to start racking up wins with the quickness, less they be left out in the cold in October for the fourth consecutive season.

After taking three out of four from the Rays last week, Toronto dropped three straight to the reigning World Series champions. Credit where it’s due, the Jays were able to take the aforementioned series with Tampa Bay. That, however, had more to do with the Rays inability to capitalize on 37 opportunities with runners in scoring position (5-for-37 wRISP, .145 AVG) than it had with some superior performance by Joey Bats and company.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA, 3.20 FIP), Austin Pruitt (6-4, 5.37 ERA, 3.80 FIP), and Alex Cobb (9-8, 3.80 ERA, 4.30 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Chris Rowley (1-0, 2.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP), Marcus Stroman (11-6, 2.99 ERA, 3.69 FIP), and JA Happ (6-9, 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer allowed three runs on five hits while fanning 10 in a loss to Toronto on Thursday. The right-hander hit 1,000 Ks for his career and 200 on the season. Archer continues to work deep into games, and has thrown over 100 pitches in 25 of his 26 starts this season. And while he has allowed just 20 earned runs over his past eight starts (an average of 2.5 runs per game), the Rays’ ace has collected only one win…but that’s more of an indictment of the team than it is Archer, who’s performing to an 11.2 K9/3.84 ERA/1.22 WHIP for the season, and regularly keeps his team in the game.

Rowley will make the third start of his big league career Tuesday night. He has allowed just three earned runs over 10-1/3 innings of work thus far — including a five inning, two-run outing against Tampa Bay in his last turn. He walked five in that start. The Rays went 3-for-14 wRISP against Toronto in that game, which says more about their inability to cash in on scoring opportunities, than it does for Crowley or Toronto’s ‘pen. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, 2B, BB), Evan Longoria (1-2, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, BB)

Pruitt was tagged for a career-high six runs by the Mariners in his last start; his 23rd career appearance (sixth start). He has allowed three combined runs in four of those starts, but five or more in his other two. Pruitt has allowed three runs on six hits (including a homer) over 6-1/3 total innings of work this season against Toronto.

Stroman has limited opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 25 starts this season, and has allowed just one home run over his last 10 starts — performing to a 2.02 ERA over that stretch. The right-hander has lasted more than six innings in eight of his last nine starts, performing to a 2.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 1.83 K/BB over 54 innings. In his last start against the Rays on August 16, Stroman gave up two runs on six hits and three walks, while striking out seven. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-6, 3B), Corey Dickerson (8-24, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Lucas Duda (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (9-30, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

Cobb will again take the mound after a stint on the 10-day DL with turf toe. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, and is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in one start against Toronto this season (3-3 with a 3.56 ERA in seven career starts against the Blue Jays).

Happ allowed five earned runs in his last start against the Cubs — his worst outing in about a month. Prior to that, the left-hander had allowed just one earned run in three consecutive outings. He didn’t allow much hard contact; rather, he was done in by the BABIP luck dragons, with seven of nine hits against him falling for singles. The left-hander had posted a 3.79 ERA and 1.94 K/BB in his first six starts since the All-Star break. This will be his first start against Tampa Bay this season and he is 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 career games (13 starts) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-16, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (11-31, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (2-8), Logan Morrison (7-14, 3 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (6-14, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Ex-Ray OF BJ “Melvin” Upton has opted out of his minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. He hopes to join a postseason contender. Upton has experience, speed, and a quality glove. He, however, cannot hit out of a wet bag. If the Rays are still seeking a right-handed bat, as Jon Heyman asserted, they would do well by staying away from BJ.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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The Rays start the day with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After finishing their most recent homestand with a 5-2 record, the scrappy Tampa Bay Rays will take the hit show to Toronto, where they’ll play a brief two-game series against the Blue Jays. The Rays start the series with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox, and 1-1/2 games ahead of the Blue Jays.

(Stats: ESPN)

When looking at BaseRuns, which is primarily based on a team’s run differential, the Rays are underperforming — largely due to a pitching staff that hasn’t been able to consistently hold leads. FanGraphs finds that they should be 37-29 on the season. Still, they posted a +.500 record in the month of May, and they’re 5-5 so far in June, which has allowed the Rays to move up in the AL East.

The Blue Jays are now the only team in the AL East bereft of a winning record. Toronto is 17-14 at home, however, they are 11-18 against the AL East, and 5-5 against Tampa Bay. To their credit, the Blue Jays are coming off a series win against the Mariners — you know, the team that the Rays were swept by a week-and-a-half back — and they are 10-6 since the return of Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson from the DL. Be that as it may, Tampa Bay has outperformed Toronto overall, including the last 14 days.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will call upon a pair of Jakes — Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA, 2.48 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.59 ERA, 5.03 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04 ERA, 3.44 FIP), and Francisco Liriano (3-2, 5.87 ERA, 4.91 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Faria is in line to make his second big league start after an impressive debut against the ChiSox, in which he allowed one run on three hits over 6-1/3 innings. He struck out five. At Triple-A Durham this season, the right-hander went 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA/3.22 FIP, and 84 strikeouts.

Estrada has hit a road block after a strong start to the season. He’s allowed 11 earned runs on 16 hits over his last 9-1/3 innings of work, while striking out a combined 12 batters. His command (or lack thereof) has been a big reason why, as he’s left too many elevated changeups in the zone. Estrada hasn’t had much success against the Rays, at least as it relates to his 1-6 record, however, his sub four ERA (3.75) overall tells a different story. Then again, he’s 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA against Tampa Bay this season after allowing 13 runs on 10 hits over 11 innings of work. All this is to say, who knows which Estrada will take the mound Tuesday night? Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-14, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (5-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-2), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi battled in the sixth inning of a win over against Chicago, giving up a three-run homer, but was sharp otherwise, striking out a season-high-tying eight. He’s also been sharp over his previous four starts, collecting 22 strikeouts and allowing just 10 earned runs on 24 hits. However, there is something to be wary of, Odorizzi has given up at least one home run in all but one start this season — April 15 vs. Boston, the game he left after just one inning of work.

Liriano struggled before going on the 10-day DL in May with left shoulder inflammation, and hasn’t pitched deeply into games since his return. The left-hander has gone five innings in each of his two starts since returning, but earned a win on June 2 with a two-run effort against the Yankees. He is 1-0 against Tampa Bay this season, yet with a 9.00 ERA over three starts (totaling 9 innings pitched). Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, 2 BB), Peter Bourjos (9-35, 3 2B, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (2-7, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-25, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Daniel Robertson (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI, 6 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

The New What Next: Rays vs Jays, part three — a series preview

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Daniel Robertson rounds the bases after hitting a homer in Wednesday night’s game against the Marlins. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their nine-game homestand on Friday, when they welcome the massively underperforming Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop for a three-game series.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays are coming off a big series win against the Miami Marlins, taking three out of four from their cross state rivals. They, in no certain terms, should have won that series, as the Marlins are under .500 in three statistical categories: W/L record, Pythagorean Expectation, and BaseRuns. Much like the Marlins, the Blue Jays — a team the Rays are looking to exact some revenge against — are under .500 in the same three categories: a 9-19 W/L record, 12-16 Pythagorean Expectation, 11-17 BaseRuns. But unlike the Marlins, the Blue Jays are actually a pretty bad team, reminiscent of themselves a few years prior when they could scarcely crack the AL East basement.

The Rays did have some trouble with the Jays in Toronto a week back, but make no mistake it, they are a beatable team. It will be interesting to see if any bad blood remains between the two teams, especially on Friday night when Chris Archer takes the mound.

Forget not, the Archer/Jose Bautista incident five days ago. Blue Jays’ manager called for Archer’s suspension, saying,

I would expect there’s got to be some kind of suspension the way they handle things now. If the umpire hadn’t issued a warning he wouldn’t have thought anything was wrong. But since he issued a warning maybe he was (thinking) ‘hey, maybe something’s not right here.’ Maybe he thought there was some intent.

I would imagine that’s when the league would step up like they do most of the time. I’d be disappointed if they didn’t. You have to maintain that continuity.

Yet Archer maintained his innocence, and…well, he hasn’t yet been suspended. If it smells like a dead fish, it probably is… I’ll remind you that the Rays ace absolutely stymied Joey Bats and the Jays in that start, and it all seems rather convenient for Gibbons to call for a suspension five days later, when his team would again face the Rays. Perhaps there’s some cowardice involved? Or, maybe it’s just a coincidence. As they say in Canada, “who knows, eh?”

As of May 4, 2017. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (2-1, 3.43 ERA, 3.38 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 3.50 ERA, 5.21 FIP), and Alex Cobb (2-2, 3.86 ERA, 4.36 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Francisco Liriano (2-2, 3.97 ERA, 3.53 FIP), Marco Estrada (1-1, 2.43 ERA, 2.94 FIP), and Mat Latos (0-1, 6.60 ERA, 7.84 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Archer’s last start was against Toronto, and he came away with a tough no-decision after allowing just one run on four hits and two walks. He struck out five over 7-1/3 innings. The right-hander pounded the zone, collecting strikes 66% of the time, yet after recording exactly five strikeouts for the fourth time in six starts, his K/9 has fallen to 8.5 on the year. In any case, this was an excellent bounce-back performance for the ace after he allowed nine earned runs over his previous 11-2/3 innings. A cautionary tale, Archer has struggled the third and fourth times through the order this season.

Liriano, after starting the season rather tepidly, finished the rest of April strong and now holds a 2.01 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 22-1/3 innings. Opposing batters have posted a measly .600 OPS over that span. He is 1-0 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season, although most of that damage was incurred in his first appearance against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-33, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (2-5, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (7-23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-2, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 3 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, 1 RBI)

Odorizzi returned from the disabled list Monday and shut the Marlins down, allowing one lowly earned run on two hits and a walk, with six strikeouts over five innings. Odo pitched well, giving up just a sacrifice-fly after an error in the first inning, and a solo homer to Marcell Ozuna in the fourth. He was efficient, needing just 78 pitches to make it through five innings, but his absence over the last couple of weeks without a rehab assignment was the cause of the early exit. Odorizzi is 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 career starts against Toronto.

Estrada, whom the Rays beat up to the tune of five runs over seven innings on April 9, has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season. The right-hander pitched extremely well in his last start, inducing weak contact time after time, and only allowing just a run after a small rally in the fourth inning. He relinquished five runs in his second outing of the season, however, Estrada has now been scored upon just four times in his last 26 innings, allowing him to lower his ERA to a stellar 2.43 (3.53 FIP). He also has raised his K/9 to 9.2 this season. Saturday should be an interesting contest, to say the least. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-11, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (7-20, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-2), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Cobb notched his best outing of the season Tuesday, blanking the Marlins over six innings, and scattering just four hits. He is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in six career starts against the Blue Jays.

Latos is coming off a very rough outing against the Yankees, one in which he allowed seven runs over four innings. He served up four home runs, yet he lives to see another day with J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez on the DL. This season has relied primarily on his 92 mph four-seam fastball bereft of movement and a whiffy 87 mph cutter. He also mixes in a 92 mph sinker and an 82 mph changeup. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-3), Colby Rasmus (7-14, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Rickie Weeks Jr. (6-20, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Some notes on the heels of the previous series, and before the upcoming three-game set, courtesy of Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times):

  • The Rays drew 28 walks during the four-games against the Marlins. They have walked 58 times in their last 10 games.
  • They are 10-5 at the Trop, averaging 5.2 runs-per game.
  • The Rays almost turned the fourth triple play in team history in the third inning on a grounder to 3B Daniel Robertson with runners on first and second. The last was Sept. 27, 2011 against the Yankees when Russell Martin grounded into a 5-4-3 triple play.
  • SS Tim Beckham homered twice to tie LF Corey Dickerson and 1B Logan Morrison for the most on the team. Half of Beckham’s homers have given the team the lead.
  • Beckham has hit more home runs in the first 30 games this season than he had in all of last season – five

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part deux — a series preview

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At least Tim Beckham had reason to smile in the series finale with the Orioles. He went 3-4 with two homers and a double. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following back-to-back series losses, including extra innings series finale losses in both, the Tampa Bay Rays head to Toronto for a three-game set against a team they’ve already has success agains this season — the Blue Jays. For the Rays, a battle against the last place team in the AL East provides them with an opportunity to get back on the winning side of .500.

Tampa Bay won the second game of the series against the Orioles, 2-0, but dropped the first and last by a combined four runs. Over on the Blue Jays’ side, they just finished up against the Cardinals. Toronto squeaked out a 6-5 win against St. Louis on Tuesday, but dropped both games of a day/night doubleheader; 8-4 in 11 innings in the early game, and 6-4 in the nightcap.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays will be looking to Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson to continue their toasty ways. Souza leads the team with 29 hits, 14 runs and 17 RBI, while Dickerson follows with 25 hits — including five homers — 11 runs and nine RBI. Evan Longoria, on the other hand, has stumbled of late, posting a .227 average with 20 hits, 10 runs and 12 RBI.

Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar has collected 24 hits, eight runs and six RBI, while Kendrys Morales has 18 hits, seven runs and 11 RBI to his name. Pillar lashed two hits and a run in game one in the first game of the double header, and a hit, a run and an RBI at night. Morales — relegated to pinch hitting duties in the first game — bagged a hit, and then a homer and three RBI in the second game. Still, the injury ridden Jays have the second worst run differential in the American League.

If anything, this should be an interesting series, as the Rays are 2-8 on the road, while the Blue Jays are 2-7 at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will start Blake Snell (0-2, 3.38 ERA, 5.50 FIP), Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.86 ERA, 5.35 FIP), and Chris Archer (2-1, 3.94 ERA, 3.50 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Marcus Stroman (2-2, 3.10 ERA, 2.80 FIP), Francisco Liriano (1-2, 4.58 ERA, 3.60 FIP), and Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Snell walked a career-high-tying five batters on Saturday against Houston. His three starts with five walks have come over his last 11 starts, and he has pitched five innings or less over his last three straight starts (seven of his last eight). Snell’s FIP has progressively ballooned over his last couple of starts, while his 15 strikeouts through 21-1/3 is worrisome. Repeat after me, his command (or lack thereof) continues to be a problem.

Stroman allowed two runs — one earned — in his second complete game of the season. His first start of the season was versus Tampa Bay and he picked up a win after 6-1/3 quality innings. Following a shaky start, Stroman settled in and kept the Angels off base for the next five innings while retiring 17 consecutive hitters. In spite a rather unlucky .400 BABIP over the last 14 days, Stroman owns an excellent 3.10 ERA and 3.03 FIP overall. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-24, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (4-15, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (4-12, 2B, 2 BB)

Andriese was in line for his second win of the season in the series finale with the Astros before Alex Colome blew his first save of the season, and allowed an unearned run in the ninth. The right-hander has allowed 10 runs this season, six of which coming on the long ball.

Liriano was touched up for five runs on three hits in just 1/3 of an inning in his season debut against Tampa Bay. Since, however, he has turned things around. Liriano has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts, notching 18 strikeouts to seven walks over those 17-1/3 innings. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-31, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (7-20, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-1)

Archer gave up three home runs — the first he’s given up this season — in a loss against Baltimore Monday night. He pitched well in his season debut against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs on five hits. Archer has struggled with his command of late, leading to a triplet of five inning starts. In any case, he’ll try to move past his blip on Sunday in Toronto.

Sanchez has been out since April 14th with a blister on his right middle finger, although the injury has healed. Sanchez threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Tuesday with tape around his injured finger. He will throw a side session on Friday without any protective covering, and if all goes as planned, he should face the Rays on Sunday. In two starts this season, Sanchez has allowed six runs on 11 hits (including three homers) with a 9:4 strike to ball ratio. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 2B), Colby Rasmus (1-3), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith was activated off the DL by the Rays and optioned to AAA Durham.

Doing so allows the team to keep OF Shane Peterson for a couple extra days as protection if Rasmus has a setback. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) writes, Peterson is out of options so has to be passed through waivers, and potentially lost, before he can be sent to the minors.

— Colby Rasmus expected to come off the DL this weekend.

— It bears mentioning…

 

The New What Next: Rays vs. Jays — a series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays took two of three from the Yankees during the Opening Series. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop, on Thursday, for a four-game set on the heels of a successful series win against the New York Yankees.

Over the Opening Series, Rays’ starters out-hurled their opponents, throwing 18-2/3 innings to New York’s 11-1/3. The ‘pen, somewhat surprisingly, was even sharper, allowing just one run in 8-1/3 innings over the three games, while fanning six and walking one.

For Tampa Bay, it was the first time since 2012 the team won an Opening Series — the same season the Rays beat the Yankees three straight.

Awesome series win, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. I think we played really good baseball three games.

The Blue Jays enter St. Pete with a series loss (against Baltimore) to their credit, although their pitching was solid. The Orioles managed to eke out a win on Wednesday without a single at-bat with runners in scoring position, doing so on the back of two home runs.

(Stats: ESPN)

Two of the top defensive center fielders in baseball, Kevin Kiermaier and Kevin Pillar, will showcase their wares over the next four days. Pillar has struggled against Tampa Bay, with a career .229 batting average, and a meager .619 OPS. Kiermaier, on the contrary, has owned the Jays, hitting .335, with 31 runs and 22 RBI in 48 games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Toronto went 8-11 against Tampa Bay in 2016 — 3-6 at Rogers Centre and 4-4 at Tropicana Field. And while the Trop used to be a graveyard for the Jays (10-35 from 2008 to 2012), but they have gone 18-21 there the past four seasons.

For the Rays, manager Kevin Cash will lean on starters Blake Snell, Matt Andriese, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi over the next four days. The Blue Jays will counter with Marcus Stroman, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Series Starters

Blake Snell fanned 98 over 89 innings last season, so his stuff — a big curveball and a mid-‘90s fastball — is there. However, control problems are generally a big concern for Snell, who didn’t have an overly strong spring.

Marcus Stroman picked up MVP of the World Baseball Classic after a dominant start against Puerto Rico in the championship game. However, Stroman was beaten up over the first half of the 2016 season, and ended the year with a 4.34 ERA/3.71 FIP. Due to his 7.45 K/9 (9% SwK%), there’s not a lot of reason to believe Stroman will be an elite strikeout pitcher. In spite of all that, Stroman led the Blue Jays in innings pitched, and pitched well in the Playoffs. As Mike Sonne (FanGraphs) pointed out, the optimism for Stroman in 2017 comes from his ERA in 2016 being nearly a full run above what his Deserve Run Average, and (DRA = 4.34), and xFIP (4.12) claimed they should be. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (4-14,2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (8-22, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB)

Matt Andriese begins the season as the number five starter, after shuffling between the starting rotation and the bullpen last season. Andriese, who also didn’t have the strongest of springs, went 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2016, and is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against Toronto.

Francisco Liriano is coming off a dominant spring that saw a lot of whiffs and fewer walks than previous years. Yet the southpaw must continue to work on command if he is to be successful as he enters the final season of his contract. Liriano had an ERA of 2.92/3.98 FIP in 8 starts (10 total games) with Toronto last season. He has been the model of inconsistency, and that inconsistency could bode well for the Rays on Friday. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-31, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (6-19, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI)

Chris Archer posted a strong Opening Day performance on Sunday, holding the Yankees to two runs in seven innings to earn his first win of the season. Archer struck out five and walked one. Last season he went 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts against Toronto.

Aaron Sanchez opens as the fifth starter following a slightly delayed start to the spring due to a finger injury. Sanchez was the AL ERA leader last season, and possesses electric stuff — although his strikeout-to-walk ratio and tendency, and a problem with homers to left-handed hitters are his main weaknesses — and could repeat or even improve upon last season’s performance. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-7, 2B), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

Jake Odorizzi, after retiring six of the first seven hitters he faced, ran into trouble in the third inning. The right-handed hurler gave up a two-run blast to Ronald Torreyes in the third inning before allowing another homer to Chase Headley one out into the sixth. All told, Odorizzi gave up four runs on seven hits, including two home runs, and two walks while striking out four over six innings.

Marco Estrada somehow has out pitched his peripherals. His 88 mph fastball and 8.5 K/9 outwardly make no sense, yet the past two seasons have been great for Estrada. When he’s healthy, he can pitch deeply into games, get average to above average strike outs, and control his walks. However, when he loses his command and control he becomes a home run pitcher because of his affinity for pitching up in the zone. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (3-11, 3B, HR, 4 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Colby Rasmus’ rehab stint with the Charlotte Stone Crabs starts Thursday.

— ….So, we (Baseball Forever) made a pretty big announcement on Wednesday, and then we celebrated at Ferg’s! Unaware of our announcement? You can find out more here.