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The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

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From one dome to another. The Rays head to Toronto for a three-game series, starting Friday. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays are set to start a three-game series on Friday night, at the Rogers Centre. Tampa Bay is coming off a series win against the Baltimore Orioles, while Toronto dropped two-of-three to the Red Sox, thanks to some atrocious pitching.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

An anomalous appearance by Sergio Romo in the second game of the series against Baltimore — resulting in a loss — notwithstanding, the Rays did what they set out to do: win the series. Jake Bauers came up big, driving in six of Tampa Bay’s 13 runs including four in the series finale. Mallex Smith also did his part, going 3-11 with five runs over the last three games.

Toronto, on the other hand, had nothing to show for its efforts against Boston, dropping two-of-three. After three straight games where they were very impressive against Seattle, the Jays’ streaky pitching staff struggled once again — allowing just six total runs in the first three games against the Mariners, but a whopping 31 runs in the four that followed. The bullpen has been the largest contributor to their poor spate of play, with the relievers carrying an 11.40 ERA over the last five games.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As always, the Blue Jays represent a powerful team that can hit the ball long distances. That being said, Toronto also strikes out at a decent clip and doesn’t walk a ton. The Rays pitching staff must keep the Jays in the ballpark, while Bauers and company need to jump on any mistakes they may see at the plate.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (12-5, 2.27 ERA), Jake Faria (4-3, 5.26 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 2.57 ERA). John Gibbons will counter with Marco Estrada (5-8, 4.65 ERA), Sam Gaviglio (1-4, 5.25 ERA), and Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.20 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings while striking out three against the ChiSox, in his first start since recovering from shoulder fatigue. Snell was limited to 59 pitches (34 strikes, 54% strike rate) but delivered a solid effort, with the only run against him coming via a Jose Abreu homer. The southpaw will likely get stretched out a little further in his next outing Friday.

Marco Estrada allowed one run on one hit and two walks while striking out four over seven innings in a win over Seattle on Saturday. The right-hander wasn’t exactly dominant (just eight swinging strikes on 93 pitches), yet he was successful at pitching to contact, as the Mariners couldn’t find any holes in the field. After outperforming his peripherals for a few seasons, Estrada has crashed hard the last two years with all the homers finally catching up to him. His 10.4% strikeout-to-walk rate this season is his worst mark since 2008. Estrada held the Rays scoreless over six innings on May 6th but is 1-8 with a 4.54 ERA in 15 career appearances (11 starts) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-2, HR, 2 RBI), CJ Cron (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-6, 3 RBI), Carlos Gomez (3-3), Kevin Kiermaier (8-23, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Jake Faria was credited with the win in Wednesday’s 7-2 victory over the Angels, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over 3-2/3 innings of relief. He struck out four on 68 pitches (41 strikes, 60% strike rate). Faria entered the game in relief of Tyler Glasnow, though he wasn’t exactly sharp. Even so, he limited the damage from his lack of control and benefited from a couple of big innings by the Rays offense.

Sam Gaviglio allowed three earned runs on seven hits and three walks while fanning seven across 5-2/3 innings Sunday against Seattle — falling one out shy of a quality start and was pulled after 89 pitches and walking consecutive batters in the sixth inning. His seven strikeouts (including 11 swinging strikes) marked his second-best performance in an outing this season. While Gaviglio has a solid 74 strikeouts across 78 frames this season, he has only two quality starts in 15 chances and has struggled to post useful peripherals (5.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). He allowed five earned runs on seven hits (including a home run) over 3-1/3 innings in his last start against the Rays and is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two career starts against the good guys. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-1, RBI), Jake Bauers (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Matt Duffy (2-3), Mallex Smith (1-2, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-1, RBI)

Tyler Glasnow made his second start for the Rays on Monday, but because he had been used as a reliever in Pittsburgh, Glasnow was on a pitch count of four innings or 60 pitches and will continue to be until he is fully stretched out.

Over his first two frames, Glasnow struck out five of six batters on 98 mph fastballs and low 80’s curveballs that were hard to time up due to the speed differential and the movement.

Baltimore got its first baserunner with two outs in the third, when Caleb Joseph singled and swiped second, but Glasnow struck out Jonathan Villar on four pitches, setting up a filthy 86 mph slider with a trio of fastballs.

Tim Beckham, ever the intrepid fastball hunter, led off the fourth inning with a solo home run when Glasnow’s velocity dropped a touch, but that was the only damage incurred against the tall right-hander.

All told, Glasnow struck out nine and walked none — not bad for a guy with a reputation of having control issues.

Following the game, Glasnow told reporters he feels comfortable with Tampa Bay and is pitching more athletically than trying to control his delivery.

I felt good physically and I wanted to go out and attack, Glasnow was quoted as saying.

The next step for Glasnow is to prove he’s capable of going five or six innings per outing.

Marcus Stroman suffered an injury that forced him to leave Tuesday’s game after seven innings; a blister on his right middle finger. The right-hander cruised through Boston’s lineup before he was pulled during warmups prior to the eighth inning. And while Stroman said he “won’t be missing (his) next start,” everything will depend on his progress over the next few days. He has dealt with the blister issue throughout the season. He has relied primarily on a whiffy 93 mph sinker with natural sinking action and a sweeping 86 mph slider with two-plane movement, while also mixing in a 91 mph worm-killer cutter, an 83 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, a 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 83 mph changeup with slight arm side fade. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-8), Matt Duffy (2-5. 2B, BB), Carlos Gomez (2-2, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (8-28, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (1-4, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Key number: six, as in the Rays have played six consecutive one-run ballgames. They’ve gone 2-4 over that stretch.

— The Rays recently announced their MLB Player’s Weekend nicknames, with newcomers Tyler Glassnow (Mini Horse) and Jalen Beeks (Beeker) clearly winning:

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part two — a series preview

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CJ Cron enters the series against the Blue Jays with 15 homers on the season, one shy of his career high. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Monday night. Toronto is coming off a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, while the Rays dropped three of four against Seattle, and nine of their last 10.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Blue Jays have been scorching at the plate of late, racking up 27 runs and 56 hits en route to a four-game sweep of Baltimore.

For their part, the Rays are not a bad team, however, they are just shy of being a good team … more often than not one run shy. Tampa Bay has lost a Major League leading 17 games by one run, including three in their last series.

With yesterday’s loss, the Rays have fallen to 29-35 on the season and run fourth place in the AL East — 1/2 game behind the Blue Jays.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.68 ERA) in the series openers, and presumably Austin Pruitt (1-3, 4.57 ERA) and Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.58 ERA) on Tuesday and Wednesday, based on when they last pitched. The Rays, however, have not set the starting rotation. We will offer updates when the situation clarifies. John Gibbons will counter with Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.51 ERA), Jaime García (2-4, 5.57 ERA), and JA Happ (8-3, 3.71 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryan Yarbrough will get the start on Monday. He has made 14 appearances this season, and has pitched to a 3.68 ERA/3.91 FIP over 58-2/3 innings overall. And though he is averaging just over four innings each time he gets the ball, that’s due in large part to his usage from March 31 to April 28. In his last outing, Yarbrough allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings.

Sam Gaviglio gave up three hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings, while striking out four. Gaviglio has allowed three runs or fewer in three of four starts and two of those were scoreless outings. One key to his success? He has walked seven over 28-2/3 innings this season. Be that as it may, he has managed just a 2.66 K/BB over the last 14 days. Gaviglio also has performed to a 1.38 HR/9 (20% HR/FB) and a very lucky — yet unsustainable — .216 BABIP over the same span. This season he has relied primarily on an 89 mph sinker and an 84 mph 12-6 slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sink and slight armside run, an 84 mph changeup with natural and a 79 mph curveball with little depth. Key Matchup: Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Austin Pruitt (1-3) allowed five earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out six across seven innings on Thursday. To be sure, the five earned runs are ugly, however, the bulk of the damage came in a three run second, and the other runs came on a pair of solo homers to Denard Span and Mitch Haniger. That is to say, Pruitt settled in and kept the Rays in the game. Pruitt has allowed four or more runs just three of his 10 appearances this season.

Jaime García threw six innings Thursday, allowing one run on three walks and four hits while fanning six in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. The Jays couldn’t give him much run support until a ninth-inning rally, so he didn’t factor into the decision. The 31-year-old southpaw lowered his season ERA to 5.57 to go along with a 2.08 K/BB ratio over 53-1/3 innings. Garcia has relied primarily on his 90 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action, and a whiffy 90 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 82 mph slider with depth and armside cut, a whiffy 82 mph changeup, and a 73 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and slight glove-side movement. He is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA in one start against the Rays (4-2/3 IP). Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (12-33, 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI)

Matt Andriese allowed two earned runs on five hits, a walk and an HBP over 2-1/3 innings of a loss to Seattle on Friday. He struck out two. Andriese stayed away from the long ball, although he struggled overall through 48 pitches. The two runs he allowed came on soft contact — a Guillermo Heredia fielder’s choice and a Mitch Haniger single — but, the fact remains that Andriese has already allowed three earned runs over his first two June outings, and multiple runs in four of his last five appearances. All this after he performed to a .169 BA/.217 OBP/.338 SLG/.555 OPS line, and a 2.04 ERA/3.33 FIP, over 17-2/3 innings in May.

JA Happ picked up the win in a 5-1 victory over Baltimore, allowing only one unearned run on two hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. The punch outs tied a season low, although pitching to contact seemed to suit the left-hander just fine as he delivered his fourth quality start in his last five trips to the mound, and seventh on the season. Happ allowed three runs on four hits (including a homer) over 5-2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on May 4. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (5-10, HR, 3 RBI), Johnny Field (1-2, HR), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-4, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria are set to begin their rehab assignments this week, with both players heading to Port Charlotte Monday and Tuesday.

— Daniel Robertson left yesterday’s game in the first inning with a strained hamstring. While not severe, the injury was enough to place Robertson on the 10-day disabled list. In his place, the team has promoted one of baseball’s top prospects, Willy Adames, back to the big leagues.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

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Jacob Faria will get the start on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: SportsNet)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home from a 5-3 road trip, where they are set to start a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Even though they dropped the series against Detroit, the Rays are turning things around. Tampa Bay comes in 13-16 on the season after winning seven of their last 10 games, and enter the weekend four games back of the 18-13 Blue Jays and 8.5 games out of first. Rays 1B/DH C.J. Cron comes into the series riding a 10-game hit streak, and is averaging .265 with seven home runs and 19 RBI.

Meanwhile, Toronto has won just six of the last 15 games, although the Jays did put up 13 runs against Cleveland on Wednesday, in the first game of a double-header. 3B Josh Donaldson was activated from the disabled list on Thursday after missing 18 games with right shoulder inflammation. Donaldson was hitting .239 with three homers and nine RBI hitting the DL. He could see some time as designated hitter.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Probable Pitchers

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Andrew Kittredge (1-2, 6.23 ERA), Jake Faria (2-1, 4.60 ERA), and Chris Archer (2-2, 6.05 ERA). John Gibbons will counter with JA Happ (4-1, 3.50 ERA), Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 4.06 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Andrew Kittredge will get the start on Friday after Yonny Chirinos was placed on the 10-day DL earlier this week (more on that below). The 28 year-old right hander has given up nine runs over 13 innings of work, however, six of those runs came in 1-2/3 innings of work against the Phillies and Red Sox. To his credit, Kittredge has shown good command inside of the strike zone and has limited lefties to zero runs and a .176 batting average. He likes to keep the ball on the ground, and when he does he’s pretty successful. The Jays have been fairly pedestrian, offensively speaking, over the last 14 days, so perhaps that was part of Cash’s thinking in starting a reliever that hasn’t pitched multiple innings in April 5.

JA Happ allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings in a win on Sunday over Texas. Happ’s control was on display, as he threw 67 of his 99 pitches for strikes (67% strike ratio) and didn’t allow a single free pass. He did allow a home run, his sixth of the season, although he was able to recover and fanned nine batters. He’s now reached the seven-inning mark in two consecutive games and has punched out at least nine batters four times this season. He has relied primarily on a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin and a worm-burner 91 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 87 mph slider and a hard 87 mph changeup.

The southpaw made four starts at Tropicana Field since 2015, going 0-0 with a 4.64 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 4.71 ERA in seven starts against the Rays during that span. Per Baseball Savant, Happ has limited the current Rays roster to a .224 batting average in 76 at-bats, and owns a 3.77 FIP against them with a 15% strikeout rate and a 3.8% walk rate (3.95 K/BB). Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (3-7, HR, 3 RBI), Carlos Gomez (5-20, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Brad Miller (2-8), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Rob Refsnyder (1-3, 2B)

Jake Faria became the first Tampa Bay hurler to pitch eight full innings in a ball game since Alex Cobb in July of 2017. After a first inning walk of the number two hitter, Jeimer Candelario, the right-hander coaxed a ground ball double play and went to work. Faria was sharp over the balance of his start, mixing fastballs and off speed stuff, while limiting deep counts, and maintaining a quick pace. The right-hander blanked the Tigers and allowed just three hits and one walk. He fanned six, relying heavily on his four-seam fastball to set up his splitter, which he got most his whiffs on.

Aaron Sanchez allowed four runs on six hits and three walks with two strikeouts over six innings on Monday against the Twins. It was the first time in five starts that Sanchez failed to record a quality start, although his offense bailed him out with six runs in the first five innings. The ground baller added another 10 to his total, but his control wasn’t there and he threw just 55 strikes in 93 pitches (59% strike ratio), walked three batters, and hit another. Sanchez’s 4.06 ERA is due in large part to a 4.3 BB/9, not to mention that he also has now hit six batters. This season he has relied primarily on a 94 mph sinker with obvious tailing action, a hard 89 mph changeup with arm-side fade, and a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 79 mph curveball with downward bite and glove-side movement. Key Matchups: Mallex Smith (1-1, 2 BB), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

Chris Archer allowed two runs on six hits and a walk over six innings on Tuesday. He struck out six. Archer scattered baserunners for the most part, allowing single runs in the third and fifth innings en route to his second quality start of the season. The right-hander pitched well enough to earn a win, however, Matthew Boyd twirled a gem of his own on the other end, and sunk him to his second loss. Archer wasn’t too impressive over his first four starts, although he’s gone at least six innings while allowing exactly two earned runs in two of his last three outings to lower his bloated ERA to 6.05. With a .365 BABIP but a 3.10 FIP over the last 14-days, it would be pretty safe to safe Archer has been dragon-bit to an extent.

I will update this piece when Sunday’s starter for Toronto is announced.

Noteworthiness

— Yonny Chirinos has been diagnosed as having a mild flexor strain, although an MRI showed no structural damage.

The right-hander was placed on the 10-day DL prior to Tuesday night’s game. And while a “forearm strain” is typically the precursor to Tommy John surgery, that won’t be the case with Chirinos.

Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough was recalled from Triple-A Durham following the roster move.

— RHP Nathan Eovaldi will make a rehab start for the Class-A Advanced Charlotte Stone Crabs on Friday. Eovaldi went on the DL before the season started after having loose bodies removed from his right elbow. He is on track to be activated by the end of the month.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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Adeiny Hechavarria gave the Rays some much needed cushion on Sunday, hitting a two-run homer in the seventh inning. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tampa Bay salvaged the final game of a three-game series with Seattle, blanking the Mariners 3-0 on Sunday behind an excellent start by Blake Snell. The Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Tuesday. This will be the last series between the the pair this season.

(Stats: ESPN)

In all fairness, the Rays should have won the previous series, if not for a controversial managing decision by Kevin Cash, who left Jake Odorizzi in the Saturday’s ball game six-batters, three-runs and two-outs too long. Aside from Friday night’s loss, and excepting Odorizzi’s performance on Saturday, Tampa Bay played much better during the last series than they had the past two … even if the stats don’t bare that out. Perhaps Kevin Kiermaier really is adding that much needed spark going into the upcoming set with Toronto — which could be viewed as a bellwether for the Rays, who need to start racking up wins with the quickness, less they be left out in the cold in October for the fourth consecutive season.

After taking three out of four from the Rays last week, Toronto dropped three straight to the reigning World Series champions. Credit where it’s due, the Jays were able to take the aforementioned series with Tampa Bay. That, however, had more to do with the Rays inability to capitalize on 37 opportunities with runners in scoring position (5-for-37 wRISP, .145 AVG) than it had with some superior performance by Joey Bats and company.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will throw Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA, 3.20 FIP), Austin Pruitt (6-4, 5.37 ERA, 3.80 FIP), and Alex Cobb (9-8, 3.80 ERA, 4.30 FIP) over the next three days. John Farrell will counter with Chris Rowley (1-0, 2.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP), Marcus Stroman (11-6, 2.99 ERA, 3.69 FIP), and JA Happ (6-9, 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Archer allowed three runs on five hits while fanning 10 in a loss to Toronto on Thursday. The right-hander hit 1,000 Ks for his career and 200 on the season. Archer continues to work deep into games, and has thrown over 100 pitches in 25 of his 26 starts this season. And while he has allowed just 20 earned runs over his past eight starts (an average of 2.5 runs per game), the Rays’ ace has collected only one win…but that’s more of an indictment of the team than it is Archer, who’s performing to an 11.2 K9/3.84 ERA/1.22 WHIP for the season, and regularly keeps his team in the game.

Rowley will make the third start of his big league career Tuesday night. He has allowed just three earned runs over 10-1/3 innings of work thus far — including a five inning, two-run outing against Tampa Bay in his last turn. He walked five in that start. The Rays went 3-for-14 wRISP against Toronto in that game, which says more about their inability to cash in on scoring opportunities, than it does for Crowley or Toronto’s ‘pen. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, 2B, BB), Evan Longoria (1-2, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, BB)

Pruitt was tagged for a career-high six runs by the Mariners in his last start; his 23rd career appearance (sixth start). He has allowed three combined runs in four of those starts, but five or more in his other two. Pruitt has allowed three runs on six hits (including a homer) over 6-1/3 total innings of work this season against Toronto.

Stroman has limited opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 25 starts this season, and has allowed just one home run over his last 10 starts — performing to a 2.02 ERA over that stretch. The right-hander has lasted more than six innings in eight of his last nine starts, performing to a 2.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 1.83 K/BB over 54 innings. In his last start against the Rays on August 16, Stroman gave up two runs on six hits and three walks, while striking out seven. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-6, 3B), Corey Dickerson (8-24, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Lucas Duda (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (9-30, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

Cobb will again take the mound after a stint on the 10-day DL with turf toe. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, and is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in one start against Toronto this season (3-3 with a 3.56 ERA in seven career starts against the Blue Jays).

Happ allowed five earned runs in his last start against the Cubs — his worst outing in about a month. Prior to that, the left-hander had allowed just one earned run in three consecutive outings. He didn’t allow much hard contact; rather, he was done in by the BABIP luck dragons, with seven of nine hits against him falling for singles. The left-hander had posted a 3.79 ERA and 1.94 K/BB in his first six starts since the All-Star break. This will be his first start against Tampa Bay this season and he is 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 career games (13 starts) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-16, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (11-31, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (2-8), Logan Morrison (7-14, 3 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (6-14, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Ex-Ray OF BJ “Melvin” Upton has opted out of his minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. He hopes to join a postseason contender. Upton has experience, speed, and a quality glove. He, however, cannot hit out of a wet bag. If the Rays are still seeking a right-handed bat, as Jon Heyman asserted, they would do well by staying away from BJ.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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The Rays start the day with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After finishing their most recent homestand with a 5-2 record, the scrappy Tampa Bay Rays will take the hit show to Toronto, where they’ll play a brief two-game series against the Blue Jays. The Rays start the series with a 34-32 record, 2-1/2 games out of second place behind the Red Sox, and 1-1/2 games ahead of the Blue Jays.

(Stats: ESPN)

When looking at BaseRuns, which is primarily based on a team’s run differential, the Rays are underperforming — largely due to a pitching staff that hasn’t been able to consistently hold leads. FanGraphs finds that they should be 37-29 on the season. Still, they posted a +.500 record in the month of May, and they’re 5-5 so far in June, which has allowed the Rays to move up in the AL East.

The Blue Jays are now the only team in the AL East bereft of a winning record. Toronto is 17-14 at home, however, they are 11-18 against the AL East, and 5-5 against Tampa Bay. To their credit, the Blue Jays are coming off a series win against the Mariners — you know, the team that the Rays were swept by a week-and-a-half back — and they are 10-6 since the return of Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson from the DL. Be that as it may, Tampa Bay has outperformed Toronto overall, including the last 14 days.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will call upon a pair of Jakes — Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA, 2.48 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.59 ERA, 5.03 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04 ERA, 3.44 FIP), and Francisco Liriano (3-2, 5.87 ERA, 4.91 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Faria is in line to make his second big league start after an impressive debut against the ChiSox, in which he allowed one run on three hits over 6-1/3 innings. He struck out five. At Triple-A Durham this season, the right-hander went 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA/3.22 FIP, and 84 strikeouts.

Estrada has hit a road block after a strong start to the season. He’s allowed 11 earned runs on 16 hits over his last 9-1/3 innings of work, while striking out a combined 12 batters. His command (or lack thereof) has been a big reason why, as he’s left too many elevated changeups in the zone. Estrada hasn’t had much success against the Rays, at least as it relates to his 1-6 record, however, his sub four ERA (3.75) overall tells a different story. Then again, he’s 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA against Tampa Bay this season after allowing 13 runs on 10 hits over 11 innings of work. All this is to say, who knows which Estrada will take the mound Tuesday night? Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-14, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (5-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-2), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Odorizzi battled in the sixth inning of a win over against Chicago, giving up a three-run homer, but was sharp otherwise, striking out a season-high-tying eight. He’s also been sharp over his previous four starts, collecting 22 strikeouts and allowing just 10 earned runs on 24 hits. However, there is something to be wary of, Odorizzi has given up at least one home run in all but one start this season — April 15 vs. Boston, the game he left after just one inning of work.

Liriano struggled before going on the 10-day DL in May with left shoulder inflammation, and hasn’t pitched deeply into games since his return. The left-hander has gone five innings in each of his two starts since returning, but earned a win on June 2 with a two-run effort against the Yankees. He is 1-0 against Tampa Bay this season, yet with a 9.00 ERA over three starts (totaling 9 innings pitched). Key Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, 2 BB), Peter Bourjos (9-35, 3 2B, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (2-7, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-25, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Daniel Robertson (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, RBI, 6 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)