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The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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  • Tommy Pham his two home runs in the series finale against the White Sox, on Wednesday.

Looking to win their fifth consecutive series of the young season, the Tampa Bay Rays will cap their nine-game road trip north of the border, when they start a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. The Rays are coming off a three-game sweep of the White Sox, while the Blue Jays are coming off a series split against the woeful Red Sox.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay got a much deserved day off after the team ripped White Sox hurlers for 24 runs and 38 hits over the life of the series, improving to 5-1 on their nine-game road trip.

Besides a dominant pitching staff that has performed to an overall 1.98 ERA/2.66 FIP, another key to the Rays’ fast start has been their ability to plate early runs. Tampa Bay is hitting .367 with five homers and 17 runs scored in the first inning of their 13 games.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are a team that has been blessed with a good pitching staff, yet a sputtering offense. Even though they averaged 6.5 runs per game (RPG) against the reigning World Series champs, that run production is clearly the exception, not the rule, as the Blue Jays have averaged just 3 RPG over their first 14 contests. Just two hitters have been consistently productive in Toronto’s lineup: Freddy Galvis, who is hitting .333 BA/.381 OBP/.641 SLG/1.022 OPS with three home runs (at the time of writing), and Richard Urena, who is hitting .350 BA/.381 OBP/.500 SLG/.881 OPS across 20 at-bats. Otherwise, the Justin Smoak’s and Lourdes Gurriel’s of the lineup have been quiet.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

In 2018, the Rays dominated the Blue Jays, winning 13-of-19 games, and posting a +31 run differential.

This will be the first meeting of the two teams since longtime coach, Charlie Montoya, took the over reigns as the manager of the Toronto ballclub.

Rays Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash is expected to lean on Ryne Stanek (0-0, 1.50 ERA) — who will likely be followed by Yonny Chirinos (2-0, 0.75 ERA) in the opener — Blake Snell (2-1, 2.84 ERA), and Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.25). Montoyo will respond with Trent Thornton (0-0, 1.69), Clay Buchholz (2018, 7-2, 2.01 ERA), and Marcus Stroman (0-2, 2.41 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek has opening duties for the Rays for the third time this season. The right-hander was touched for a run in Tuesday’s 10-5 win against Chicago in relief, yet has tossed three shutout innings in his previous two games as an opener.

Yonny Chirinos isn’t scheduled to start at any point this week and will instead work in relief on a temporary basis. In two outings as a starter, Chirinos has been dominant, performing to a 0.75 ERA/2.60 FIP across 12 total innings of work. It would be a reasonable guess for him to take the mound after Stanek on Friday.

Trent Thornton has pitched well in his first two starts of the season although has nothing to show for it. The right-hander has been backed with just two runs of support in his two starts even though he has held opponents to a .139 batting average while striking out 15 in across 10-2/3 innings of work. Thornton allowed two runs on three hits over 5-2/3 innings while striking out seven in Cleveland last Friday. He did have some control issues compared to his season debut, walking two hitters while throwing 92 pitches. He also has been very lucky, pitching to a .200 BABIP, so regression is expected. The Rays are hoping the luck dragons will nip in their favor on Friday. Thornton relies primarily on a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a hard 81 mph curveball with a ton of spin, an 89 mph cutter with natural sink and strong cutting action, and a whiffy 83 mph splitter with a lot of backspin on it.

Blake Snell allowed just a single run on six hits across the first six frames. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out 11.

Snell fanned five of the first six batters he faced and didn’t allow a runner beyond second base until the fifth inning when he gave up a two-out homer to left to Jose Rondon.

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner got in trouble in the sixth inning, nevertheless, Mr. .083 BA wRISP did not break. Snell allowed a double to Leury Garcia to start the inning and an infield hit to Tim Anderson that glanced off of Snell’s glove, putting runners at the corners. However, the southpaw buckled down and struck out Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, and Yoan Moncada to keep the lead intact.

Snell has now struck out 24 batters in his last two starts, the most he’s ever had in back-to-back outings. Snell coaxed 24 swings and misses, after a career-high 25 in his last start.

Clay Buchholz went 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA in 16 starts before his arm wore down last season and was placed on the injured list with a right flexor strain. After signing a $3-million deal with Toronto in the offseason, followed by a minor league rehab assignment to finish off Spring Training, Buchholz is ready for his first start of the season. In his words, expect a wily pitcher that tries to keep hitters off balance.

I’ve evolved into a different kind of pitcher. I’ve proven you don’t have to throw 98 to get guys out. You have to throw four pitches for strikes, mix it up, and keep guys off balance. That’s what I do.

— Clay Buchholz

Last season Buchholz relied primarily on an 86 mph cutter, and a 91 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 76 mph curveball, a 78 mph circle changeup, and a 91 mph sinker. He is 9-8 with a 2.67 ERA in 23 career outings (21 starts) against Tampa Bay.

Charlie Morton gave up a two-run shot to Yoan Moncada in the bottom of the third inning, although he otherwise kept the White Sox off balance by leaning on his fastball (both two and four-seam, 46 thrown, 29 strikes, 63% strike rate), curveball (30 thrown, 15 strikes, 50% strike rate), and his cutter (14 thrown, 11 strikes, 79% strike rate).

The two runs were all that Morton allowed across five innings of work. The right-hander scattered three hits and three walks while striking out seven.

Marcus Stroman continues to look for his first win of the season. The right-hander has recorded 18 strikeouts over his first three starts of the season. In his last start against Cleveland, Stroman surrendered three runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six across six innings. The right-hander relies primarily on his 85 mph sweeping slider with two-plane movement, a 93 mph sinker with natural sinking action, and a 91 mph worm-killer cutter. Stroman is 5-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 13 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-2, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (1-4), Avisail Garcia (5-9, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (9-31, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Michael Perez (1-2, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-1, RBI), Mike Zunino (1-3, HR, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Free on Sunday?

On Sunday, April 14, 2019 X-Rays Spex and Golden Dinosaurs Vegan Deli will team up to host a shirt release celebration and Rays watch party, when the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Toronto Blue Jays, in Toronto. We’re bringing all the camaraderie of the game, and some delicious foodstuffs, at one of the areas best new restaurants!

First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 pm, so be sure to get down to Golden Dinosaurs early to grab a bite to eat and an ice-cold brew. Don’t forget to snatch our newest shirt design (pictured) titled “The Legend of Dan Johnson,” so you can wear it to the Trop the following weekend when our guys take on the reigning World Series champs.

Throughout the afternoon Golden Dinosaurs will offer some select specials. We’ll also raffle off some great Rays swag between the innings, among other fantastic things.

See you April 14, and be sure to tell a friend!

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

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Tommy Pham hit two homers in the series finale against the Rangers on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After sweeping the Texas Rangers in Arlington, the Tampa Bay Rays will continue their final road series of the season in Toronto, where they are set to start a four-game set against the Blue Jays on Thursday. Toronto is coming off a series win against Baltimore, although they dropped the series finale on Wednesday.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays steamrolled over Texas in the span of the series, outscoring the Rangers 16-3, impressively driving in six two-out runs and going 10-for-36 wRISP (.278 BA). They also clubbed four home runs, including a pair from Tommy Pham on Wednesday.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) surmised things well on Wednesday, writing:

The Rays still have a long way to go, and they are going to need a lot of help to get there.

But they continue to do their part to try to make it a race for the final American League playoff spot, beating the Rangers 9-3 Wednesday for their fifth straight win, 14th in 17 September games, and 23rd in their past 28 overall improving to 85-66.

More importantly, they crept within five games of the second wild-card-holding A’s, who hosted the Angels late Wednesday, having gained 3½ games in the previous four days.

Meanwhile, just when it looked like Toronto could string together a successful end of the season run, winning two consecutive series against the Yankees and Orioles (respectively), the Blue Jays were limited to one run on Wednesday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tampa Bay’s most recent wins have allowed the Rays to keep the pressure on the Athletics and Yankees. These next four games are no different. That is to say, there is no time to take the foot off the gas. Toronto has a fully capable lineup that can levy damage on opposing pitchers, and it will be incumbent on the Rays pitching staff to keep the ball in the yard, as they’ve done all season.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash has named just one pitcher in the series — Thursday’s opener, Ryne Stanek (2-3, 2.49 ERA), so it’s a bit difficult to project who will be pitching. Moreover, I’m rolling with the assumption that Cash will push Blake Snell’s start back a day so he can open the series against the Yankees. That being said, it seems reasonable the Rays will employ the bullpen on Thursday and Friday, while Tyler Glasnow (2-6, 4.22 ERA) and Jalen Beeks (4-1, 5.32 ERA) should see the bulk of the innings on Saturday and Sunday. John Gibbons will counter with Sam Gaviglio (2-8, 5.38 ERA), Sean Reid-Foley (2-3, 5.54 ERA), Thomas Pannone (3-1, 4.18 ERA), and Ryan Borucki (4-4, 3.86 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek has opened 26 games this season, compiling a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 47 strikeouts across 36 innings in those appearances. He’ll pitch one or two innings before giving way to a long reliever.

Sam Gaviglio settled for a no-decision last Thursday, allowing two earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out one across 3-1/3 innings. Gaviglio was pulled with one out in the fourth inning after throwing 53 pitches. He gave up a homer to J.D. Martinez in the second inning, now allowing at least one home run in five consecutive starts. Gaviglio’s ERA stands at a disappointing 5.25 for the season, along with a 3.03 K/BB ratio over 108 innings. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season (eight innings of work). Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3, 2 RBI), Jake Bauers (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Ji-Man Choi (1-2, 2B), CJ Cron (1-4), Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Mallex Smith (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (3-4, 2B, 2 RBI)

Jalen Beeks pitched two shutout innings of relief on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and no walks. It will be interesting to see if Kevin Cash lengthens his leash since Beeks has allowed just one run across four combined appearances spanning 10 innings.

Sean Reid-Foley earned a win against the Yankees on Saturday, striking out 10 and allowing two hits and four walks across five scoreless innings. Reid-Foley totaled 92 pitches (55 strikes, 60% K/BB) as the walks inflated his pitch count a bit. He, however, was fantastic against a playoff-caliber offense. The right-hander was about 10 innings away from his limit for the season entering Saturday, so his start Friday will likely be the last of the season. This season he has relied primarily on his 94 mph four-seam fastball and an 84 mph slider, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup and an 82 mph curveball.

Tyler Glasnow allowed the only hits on the night and struck out six over six scoreless innings, allowing the right-hander to pick up his first victory with Tampa Bay in nine starts. The only other baserunner against Glasnow came on a one-out hit by pitch of Rougned Odor in the first inning. Odor later swiped second base and moved up 90 feet on a wild pitch. He, however, struck out Adrian Beltre with two outs to escape the threat.

After the rough first inning, Glasnow found a rhythm on the mound and retired the next 11 batters he faced — taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

But with two outs In the bottom of the fifth, the right-hander allowed an infield single to Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Texas’ first hit on the night.

Be that as it may, outside of a bad start against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5, in which he allowed seven runs and lasted just two-thirds of an inning, Glasnow has been strong for the Rays, allowing one run or fewer in five of his nine starts, and yielding two hits or fewer in five starts.

He was outstanding. I liked everything, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. I thought he was out of rhythm in the first inning, and I thought he did a nice job of kind of calming the situation down, getting the ball over the plate. He had the breaking balls, the fastballs going, and he threw some changeups. … He’s done just outstanding. The runs he’s given up, it seems like they come off solo home runs a lot, which is fine. Keeping guys off base, and if they’re going to get you, you’d rather it be a solo shot. With the exception of Toronto, we’ve been in every single game. He’s given us an opportunity to win every single game that he’s been out there.

Thomas Pannone allowed two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six across seven innings on Sunday. Pannone got off to a shaky start after giving up two runs in the first inning, though he managed to bounce back and finish his day with six consecutive scoreless frames. The 24-year-old has appeared in just 10 games this season for Toronto (four starts) and owns a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 21 punchouts through 31 innings. Pannone has appeared in two games against the Rays this season, allowing two runs on four hits across 2-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Joey Wendle (1-2, 2B)

TBA

Ryan Borucki threw eight scoreless innings on Monday, allowing three hits and one walk while striking out seven across eight innings. Borucki kept the Orioles off the board, eventually exiting the game after throwing 105 pitches (67 strikes, 64% K/BB). He’s been a reliable starter in 15 starts this season, owning a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 57 strikeouts across 84 innings. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits on two walks in his last start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Rookie outfielder Austin Meadows will be among Tampa Bay’s four additional call-ups from Triple-A Durham the club plans to make on Thursday.

The Bulls’ season ended after Tuesday night’s 14-4 loss to Memphis in the Triple-A National Championship Game.

Meadows batted .302 with 10 home runs and 25 RBI in 36 games for Durham this season. He also played in 49 games for the Pirates earlier this season, slashing .292 BA/.327 OBP/.468 SLG/.795 OPS with five home runs and 13 RBI during his first stint in the big leagues.

Very excited to see him, Kevin Cash said. I know what our staff feels about him, and the impact that he had down there in Durham for the month and a half that he was there. Excited to get him up here.

Meadows, however, may face limited playing time due to the logjam in the outfield.

It’ll be challenging, there’s no doubt, Cash said. We’ll just see how these next couple games shake out and go from there.

The team is also expected to recall LHP Hoby Milner, RHP Austin Pruitt, and RHP Chih-Wei Hu.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part four — a series preview

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Tampa Bay completed an impressive 6-2 run in three consecutive series against division leaders, sweeping Boston at home, splitting a pair in Atlanta, and taking two of three in Cleveland. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to cap what has been a successful road trip with a few more wins when they start a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night. Tampa Bay prevailed against Cleveland on Sunday, 6-4, taking two of three from the top team in the AL Central. Toronto took two of three on the road from the Marlins in Miami, winning the rubber game 6-1 Sunday afternoon.

The Rays took two of three in the last series against the Jays, which was in Toronto from August 10-12, and are 7-2 this season overall.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

With the win Sunday, the Rays improved to 73-63, moving 10 games over .500 for the first time since June 2015 — Kevin Cash’s first season — and this late in a season since 2013, the last time they made the playoffs.

They have also stayed within sight of the final Wildcard spot, starting the series with Toronto eight games back of the Athletics, who they will face September 14-16 at Tropicana Field.

It’s one of those things where everybody in this clubhouse feels like we have a chance to be in the race and that we’re not out of it yet. So, we’re definitely going for it. And we’re having a lot of fun doing it, Ryan Yarbrough said after the series finale on Sunday.

This should make for a compelling week of baseball as Oakland plays host to the Yankees, who then will face the Mariners, who are also in the Rays’ way. Dare I say let’s go Yankees?

I digress.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Blue Jays aren’t an awful team offensively speaking, although the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired — ranking 12 out of 15 in the American League, and 27 out of 30 overall. Toronto’s hurlers have actually been worse in the month of August, combining for a 5.64 ERA/4.94 FIP/.287 BAA line. Meanwhile, the Rays offense has not hit a lot of homers, although CJ Cron and company have been mightily productive, with the team averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 14 days.

As they have done all season, it will be incumbent upon the Rays to limit the long-ball, Toronto’s main facet of run production. Also, expect Tampa Bay to put the ball in play, then run all over Russell Martin and Luke Maile.

Pitching Probables

With the exception of Tyler Glasnow (1-4, 3.95 ERA), who is slated to pitch in the finale on Wednesday, Kevin Cash has not set the openers/starters for the first and second games of the series. Even so, Ryne Stanek (2-3, 2.77 ERA) will likely open the game on Monday, while Yonny Chirinos (2-5, 4.05 ERA) should see the most mound time. Jalen Beeks (4-1, 6.08 ERA) will, presumably, pitch the bulk of the innings on Tuesday. John Gibbons will counter with Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.27 ERA), Sam Gaviglio (2-7, 5.16), and Ryan Borucki (3-3, 4.52 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek worked around a hit with one strikeout in a scoreless inning of work Tuesday as the opener in Atlanta. The right-hander threw seven of 11 pitches for strikes as he faced the minimum three batters in his inning of work, thanks to a caught stealing of Ender Inciarte.

Yonny Chirinos was hit hard following Stanek, tossing five innings and allowing five runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks. He struck out three in the 81-pitch outing (51 strikes, 63% strike rate, 17/25 first-pitch strikes). Chirinos wasn’t particularly sharp and was on track to take the loss after departing with the Rays trailing 5-4, but Tampa Bay ended up tying the game in the eighth inning to take the right-hander off the hook.

Marcus Stroman threw a bullpen session Saturday and should get the start Monday. Stroman, who landed on the disabled list August 19 with a nagging blister issue, has been dealing with the affliction for much of the season which helps explain his 5.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in what amounts to the worst season of his big league career. Stroman spun off one of Toronto’s two wins against the Tampa Bay this season on August 12, limiting the Rays to one run on five hits and a walk. He struck out two. Even So, he is 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-2, RBI), Ji-Man Choi (1-2), CJ Cron (3-8), Matt Duffy (2-7, 2B, 2 BB), Carlos Gomez (2-2, HR, 3 RBI), Joey Wendle (1-2) 

Jalen Beeks got the win Wednesday, pitching three shutout — and rain-shortened — innings with two strikeouts while allowing four hits and three walks against Atlanta. An hour and six-minute rain delay limited his outing to just three innings and 49 pitches (26 strikes, 53% strike rate, 9/15 first-pitch strikes) — both of which were season-low totals since joining Tampa Bay — although it was still enough to pick up the win for a third straight outing. The rookie southpaw has a 2.63 ERA with a 2/1 K/BB in 27-1/3 innings since the start of August.

Sam Gaviglio allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two across 5-2/3 innings on Monday against Baltimore. Gaviglio sailed through the front five scoreless innings before the wheels fell off in the sixth. He gave up a run on a fielder’s choice, which was followed by a three-run blast to cap off the four-run frame. Meanwhile, Toronto’s offense was unable to muster a single run, so the right-hander was hit with his seventh loss of the season. Gaviglio owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 92 punch-outs over 100-1/3 innings. He is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in three career starts against the Rays, including 0-2 in two starts this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3, RBI, BB), Jake Bauers (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Ji-Man Choi (1-2, 2B), CJ Cron (1-4), Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Mallex Smith (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (3-4, 2B, 2 RBI)

Tyler Glasnow was excellent on Friday, throwing seven innings of one-run ball while allowing two hits (including a homer) and one walk on an efficient 76 pitches (56 strikes, 74% strike rate, 19/24 first-pitch strikes). He struck out six.

Glasnow pounded the top of the zone with his upper 90’s four-seam fastball before working over the edges of the plate. Then, he would drop in a low-80s curveball, with 7-to-8 inches of depth, over the heart of the plate, resulting in a good number of taken strikes. On occasion he would drop in a mid-80s slider, that fell right off the table and onto home plate, resulting in a 16.7% SwStr rate. The depth he got on his offspeed stuff was unreal, thanks in part to his release point which mimicked that of his four-seamer.

Ryan Borucki coughed up five runs on eight hits across 4-2/3 innings while striking out two. The rookie was staked to an early four-run lead, yet Baltimore quickly stormed back while an Adam Jones grand slam in the fifth inning helped chase Borucki from the game. He has relied primarily on a heavy sinking 92 mph four-seam fastball and a firm 84 mph changeup with a ton of backspin, while also mixing in a 79 mph slider with exceptional depth and short glove-side cutting movement.

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith, who was seen in uniform in the background of a Willy Adames Instagram story yesterday, should be reinstated from the 10-day DL on Monday.

— The Rays made a surprise roster move on Sunday, promoting INF/OF Andrew Velazquez from Triple-A Durham to provide depth at several positions. The move was made in part because CF Kevin Kiermaier remains sidelined due to a sore back and Velazquez can play centerfield.

To make room on the 40-man roster for Velasquez, the Rays put injured RHP Jose Mujica on the big-league roster and then on the 60-day DL.

So why Velazquez over Austin Meadows, the prospect acquired from the Pirates who is tearing it up at Durham? Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote Sunday:

Meadows hasn’t played since Wednesday when he was hit on the left hand in the at-bat after his third homer of the game.

And why Velazquez over Kean Wong, who also plays infield and outfield and is having a great year? Because Velazquez is better and has more experience in center, can play short which Wong doesn’t, is a faster runner which makes him a potential pinch-runner, and is a switch-hitter while Wong is a lefty, of which the Rays have plenty.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

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From one dome to another. The Rays head to Toronto for a three-game series, starting Friday. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays are set to start a three-game series on Friday night, at the Rogers Centre. Tampa Bay is coming off a series win against the Baltimore Orioles, while Toronto dropped two-of-three to the Red Sox, thanks to some atrocious pitching.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

An anomalous appearance by Sergio Romo in the second game of the series against Baltimore — resulting in a loss — notwithstanding, the Rays did what they set out to do: win the series. Jake Bauers came up big, driving in six of Tampa Bay’s 13 runs including four in the series finale. Mallex Smith also did his part, going 3-11 with five runs over the last three games.

Toronto, on the other hand, had nothing to show for its efforts against Boston, dropping two-of-three. After three straight games where they were very impressive against Seattle, the Jays’ streaky pitching staff struggled once again — allowing just six total runs in the first three games against the Mariners, but a whopping 31 runs in the four that followed. The bullpen has been the largest contributor to their poor spate of play, with the relievers carrying an 11.40 ERA over the last five games.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As always, the Blue Jays represent a powerful team that can hit the ball long distances. That being said, Toronto also strikes out at a decent clip and doesn’t walk a ton. The Rays pitching staff must keep the Jays in the ballpark, while Bauers and company need to jump on any mistakes they may see at the plate.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (12-5, 2.27 ERA), Jake Faria (4-3, 5.26 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 2.57 ERA). John Gibbons will counter with Marco Estrada (5-8, 4.65 ERA), Sam Gaviglio (1-4, 5.25 ERA), and Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.20 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings while striking out three against the ChiSox, in his first start since recovering from shoulder fatigue. Snell was limited to 59 pitches (34 strikes, 54% strike rate) but delivered a solid effort, with the only run against him coming via a Jose Abreu homer. The southpaw will likely get stretched out a little further in his next outing Friday.

Marco Estrada allowed one run on one hit and two walks while striking out four over seven innings in a win over Seattle on Saturday. The right-hander wasn’t exactly dominant (just eight swinging strikes on 93 pitches), yet he was successful at pitching to contact, as the Mariners couldn’t find any holes in the field. After outperforming his peripherals for a few seasons, Estrada has crashed hard the last two years with all the homers finally catching up to him. His 10.4% strikeout-to-walk rate this season is his worst mark since 2008. Estrada held the Rays scoreless over six innings on May 6th but is 1-8 with a 4.54 ERA in 15 career appearances (11 starts) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-2, HR, 2 RBI), CJ Cron (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-6, 3 RBI), Carlos Gomez (3-3), Kevin Kiermaier (8-23, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Jake Faria was credited with the win in Wednesday’s 7-2 victory over the Angels, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over 3-2/3 innings of relief. He struck out four on 68 pitches (41 strikes, 60% strike rate). Faria entered the game in relief of Tyler Glasnow, though he wasn’t exactly sharp. Even so, he limited the damage from his lack of control and benefited from a couple of big innings by the Rays offense.

Sam Gaviglio allowed three earned runs on seven hits and three walks while fanning seven across 5-2/3 innings Sunday against Seattle — falling one out shy of a quality start and was pulled after 89 pitches and walking consecutive batters in the sixth inning. His seven strikeouts (including 11 swinging strikes) marked his second-best performance in an outing this season. While Gaviglio has a solid 74 strikeouts across 78 frames this season, he has only two quality starts in 15 chances and has struggled to post useful peripherals (5.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). He allowed five earned runs on seven hits (including a home run) over 3-1/3 innings in his last start against the Rays and is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two career starts against the good guys. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-1, RBI), Jake Bauers (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Matt Duffy (2-3), Mallex Smith (1-2, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-1, RBI)

Tyler Glasnow made his second start for the Rays on Monday, but because he had been used as a reliever in Pittsburgh, Glasnow was on a pitch count of four innings or 60 pitches and will continue to be until he is fully stretched out.

Over his first two frames, Glasnow struck out five of six batters on 98 mph fastballs and low 80’s curveballs that were hard to time up due to the speed differential and the movement.

Baltimore got its first baserunner with two outs in the third, when Caleb Joseph singled and swiped second, but Glasnow struck out Jonathan Villar on four pitches, setting up a filthy 86 mph slider with a trio of fastballs.

Tim Beckham, ever the intrepid fastball hunter, led off the fourth inning with a solo home run when Glasnow’s velocity dropped a touch, but that was the only damage incurred against the tall right-hander.

All told, Glasnow struck out nine and walked none — not bad for a guy with a reputation of having control issues.

Following the game, Glasnow told reporters he feels comfortable with Tampa Bay and is pitching more athletically than trying to control his delivery.

I felt good physically and I wanted to go out and attack, Glasnow was quoted as saying.

The next step for Glasnow is to prove he’s capable of going five or six innings per outing.

Marcus Stroman suffered an injury that forced him to leave Tuesday’s game after seven innings; a blister on his right middle finger. The right-hander cruised through Boston’s lineup before he was pulled during warmups prior to the eighth inning. And while Stroman said he “won’t be missing (his) next start,” everything will depend on his progress over the next few days. He has dealt with the blister issue throughout the season. He has relied primarily on a whiffy 93 mph sinker with natural sinking action and a sweeping 86 mph slider with two-plane movement, while also mixing in a 91 mph worm-killer cutter, an 83 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, a 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 83 mph changeup with slight arm side fade. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-8), Matt Duffy (2-5. 2B, BB), Carlos Gomez (2-2, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (8-28, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (1-4, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Key number: six, as in the Rays have played six consecutive one-run ballgames. They’ve gone 2-4 over that stretch.

— The Rays recently announced their MLB Player’s Weekend nicknames, with newcomers Tyler Glassnow (Mini Horse) and Jalen Beeks (Beeker) clearly winning:

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part two — a series preview

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CJ Cron enters the series against the Blue Jays with 15 homers on the season, one shy of his career high. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Monday night. Toronto is coming off a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, while the Rays dropped three of four against Seattle, and nine of their last 10.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Blue Jays have been scorching at the plate of late, racking up 27 runs and 56 hits en route to a four-game sweep of Baltimore.

For their part, the Rays are not a bad team, however, they are just shy of being a good team … more often than not one run shy. Tampa Bay has lost a Major League leading 17 games by one run, including three in their last series.

With yesterday’s loss, the Rays have fallen to 29-35 on the season and run fourth place in the AL East — 1/2 game behind the Blue Jays.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.68 ERA) in the series openers, and presumably Austin Pruitt (1-3, 4.57 ERA) and Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.58 ERA) on Tuesday and Wednesday, based on when they last pitched. The Rays, however, have not set the starting rotation. We will offer updates when the situation clarifies. John Gibbons will counter with Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.51 ERA), Jaime García (2-4, 5.57 ERA), and JA Happ (8-3, 3.71 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryan Yarbrough will get the start on Monday. He has made 14 appearances this season, and has pitched to a 3.68 ERA/3.91 FIP over 58-2/3 innings overall. And though he is averaging just over four innings each time he gets the ball, that’s due in large part to his usage from March 31 to April 28. In his last outing, Yarbrough allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings.

Sam Gaviglio gave up three hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings, while striking out four. Gaviglio has allowed three runs or fewer in three of four starts and two of those were scoreless outings. One key to his success? He has walked seven over 28-2/3 innings this season. Be that as it may, he has managed just a 2.66 K/BB over the last 14 days. Gaviglio also has performed to a 1.38 HR/9 (20% HR/FB) and a very lucky — yet unsustainable — .216 BABIP over the same span. This season he has relied primarily on an 89 mph sinker and an 84 mph 12-6 slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sink and slight armside run, an 84 mph changeup with natural and a 79 mph curveball with little depth. Key Matchup: Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Austin Pruitt (1-3) allowed five earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out six across seven innings on Thursday. To be sure, the five earned runs are ugly, however, the bulk of the damage came in a three run second, and the other runs came on a pair of solo homers to Denard Span and Mitch Haniger. That is to say, Pruitt settled in and kept the Rays in the game. Pruitt has allowed four or more runs just three of his 10 appearances this season.

Jaime García threw six innings Thursday, allowing one run on three walks and four hits while fanning six in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. The Jays couldn’t give him much run support until a ninth-inning rally, so he didn’t factor into the decision. The 31-year-old southpaw lowered his season ERA to 5.57 to go along with a 2.08 K/BB ratio over 53-1/3 innings. Garcia has relied primarily on his 90 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action, and a whiffy 90 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 82 mph slider with depth and armside cut, a whiffy 82 mph changeup, and a 73 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and slight glove-side movement. He is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA in one start against the Rays (4-2/3 IP). Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (12-33, 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI)

Matt Andriese allowed two earned runs on five hits, a walk and an HBP over 2-1/3 innings of a loss to Seattle on Friday. He struck out two. Andriese stayed away from the long ball, although he struggled overall through 48 pitches. The two runs he allowed came on soft contact — a Guillermo Heredia fielder’s choice and a Mitch Haniger single — but, the fact remains that Andriese has already allowed three earned runs over his first two June outings, and multiple runs in four of his last five appearances. All this after he performed to a .169 BA/.217 OBP/.338 SLG/.555 OPS line, and a 2.04 ERA/3.33 FIP, over 17-2/3 innings in May.

JA Happ picked up the win in a 5-1 victory over Baltimore, allowing only one unearned run on two hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. The punch outs tied a season low, although pitching to contact seemed to suit the left-hander just fine as he delivered his fourth quality start in his last five trips to the mound, and seventh on the season. Happ allowed three runs on four hits (including a homer) over 5-2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on May 4. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (5-10, HR, 3 RBI), Johnny Field (1-2, HR), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-4, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria are set to begin their rehab assignments this week, with both players heading to Port Charlotte Monday and Tuesday.

— Daniel Robertson left yesterday’s game in the first inning with a strained hamstring. While not severe, the injury was enough to place Robertson on the 10-day disabled list. In his place, the team has promoted one of baseball’s top prospects, Willy Adames, back to the big leagues.