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Rays 5/23/18 pregame notes; injury and roster updates

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Take two. The Rays will try to snap a two-game losing skid after falling to Chris Sale and the Red Sox, 4-2, last night. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After a 4-2 loss, in an injury marred contest against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back and snap a two-game losing skid on Wednesday night.

On the subject of injuries, the Rays made a pair of roster moves Wednesday, placing Jake Faria on the disabled list with a strained left oblique, and recalling LHP Vidal Nuno to take his place. Faria, like Jake Odorizzi who sustained a similar injury in 2015, could miss six-to-eight weeks based on the severity of the strain.

A corresponding 40-man move will need to be made to add Nuno, who is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at Durham. He has walked just three and struck out 37 across 40-1/3 innings. Nuno told Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) he is thankful to be back in the Major Leagues and excited to potentially face the Orioles, who he spent the 2017 season with.

Still the addition of Nuno, over rostered options like RHP Chih-Wei Hu, RHP Hunter Wood and RHP Andrew Kittredge (among others), is a bit surprising. In any case, he was likely chosen for his ability to work across multiple innings.

Nathan Eovaldi is slated to make one last tuneup start for Durham today. It is unclear how his return might impact Nuno’s stay with the team, if at all. It should be noted, Austin Pruitt has options remaining and could be optioned back to Durham instead of exposing Nuno to waivers should his stay be brief.

Tampa Bay will have eight right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, with Wilson Ramos sitting out after suffering a bruised left hand. Ramos though isn’t expected to go on the DL.

The New What Next

Chris Archer (3-3, 5.01 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite his friend and former teammate David Price (4-4, 4.38 ERA).

Chris Archer notched his third win of the season on Thursday against the Angels, throwing 6-2/3 shutout innings, and allowing just two hits while striking out five, but walking four. After getting tagged for six earned runs in his last start, Archer was able to bounce back with a strong outing — only his third quality start in his last four turns. Overall he still has been erratic, and sports an unsightly 5.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 59-1/3 innings. They say familiarity breeds contempt, and likewise Boston has owned Archer over his 20 career starts, pegging him with a 2-12 record and a 5.49.

David Price tossed his best outing of the season on Thursday, posting a complete game, two-run five-hit gem, against Baltimore. He struck out eight. The only runs that were charged to his line came on a ninth inning, two-out, two-run homer to Manny Machado, but the blast was not enough to ruin Price’s second consecutive strong effort, completed on an efficient 95 pitches (65 strikes, 68% strike rate). The southpaw recently copped to a bout with carpal tunnel syndrome, which comes as no surprise to anyone that follows Price and knows his proclivity for video games. The former Ray has had a tough time against his previous team, going 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA. Price is 37-30 with a 2.84 ERA in 90 career starts at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (5-18, 2 2B), Wilson Ramos (4-11, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part four

Rays 5/23/18 Starting Lineup

Span LF
Cron 1B
Robertson DH
Duffy 3B
Adames SS
Field CF
Refsnyder RF
Arroyo 2B
Sucre C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Willy Adames, one of the players traded for Price in 2014, will face the southpaw in his second big league game. Adames told Solondz yesterday that he’s excited about the opportunity. The infielder became the fifth player in franchise history to homer in his first Major League game, joining former Ray Brandon Guyer (May 6, 2011, at Baltimore). He also became the first player to ever hit a homer in his first career game at Tropicana Field.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part four

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In spite of falling 5-2 in the series finale against the Angels, the Rays returned home with a +.500 road record on their most recent trek, and in third place in the AL East. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a successful +.500 road trip that got off to a disastrous 1-3 start, the Tampa Bay Rays return to Tropicana Field on Tuesday, where they will kick off a three game series against the Boston Red Sox. After dropping six out of seven prior to their road trek, the Rays bounced back to win six straight and take sole possession of third place in the AL East, surpassing Toronto. Meanwhile, Boston has vacillated between first and second place in the division all season long, and are currently tied with the Yankees at the top, although New York has a higher winning percentage. The Sox have won two straight and four of five.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays started off the season off horribly and looked liked they would be competing with the Orioles for cellar in the division, but they have turned things around. And after starting the season 1-6 against Boston, Tampa Bay took two of three from the Red Sox in their last meeting at Fenway in April — winning the series and outscoring the Massholes 19-13. They did not see Chris Sale in that series, yet the did butt heads with David Price, and beat him once again; the fourth time in 11 tries.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Jake Faria (3-2, 5.20 ERA), Chris Archer (3-3, 5.01 ERA), and Blake Snell (5-3, 3.07 ERA). Alex Cora will counter with Chris Sale (4-1, 2.29 ERA), David Price (4-4, 4.38 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before Thursday’s ball game.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Jake Faria gave up three runs on four hits and four walks while striking out two over 4-1/3 innings on Wednesday against the Royals. He did not factor into the decision. Faria was staked to a four-run lead heading into the bottom of the fifth inning, when the bottom fell out. The right-hander got into an early jam in the inning and already had an elevated pitch count, signaling the end of his start. Control was the culprit, as Faria recorded more walks than strikeouts for the third time this season en route to a pedestrian 1.67 K/BB on the year. Even so, he is 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 10 career starts at Tropicana Field.

Chris Sale allowed two runs on two hits and four walks over just five innings to pick up the win Wednesday over Oakland. He struck out nine. Sale was effectively wild, and needed 102 pitches to get through five innings of work, however, he was as nasty as usual. His fastball alone coaxed 10 swinging strikes in 66 offerings, and that’s not to speak of his sweeping slider. Sale was touched up for a two-run homer by Marcus Semien, the sixth he’s allowed in his last six starts. Nevertheless, Sale has been effective despite the home run problem (a 13.6% HR/FB over the last 14-days) — his peripherals are powered by a ridiculous 5.6 K/BB over 41 innings in those six starts. Sale is 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA in 15 starts against the Rays, and 3-3 with a 2.02 ERA in eight starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Wilson Ramos (4-13, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (3-12, 3B, RBI)

Chris Archer notched his third win of the season on Thursday against the Angels, throwing 6-2/3 shutout innings, and allowing just two hits while striking out five, but walking four. After getting tagged for six earned runs in his last start, Archer was able to bounce back with a strong outing — only his third quality start in his last four turns. Overall he still has been erratic, and sports an unsightly 5.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 59-1/3 innings. They say familiarity breeds contempt, and likewise Boston has owned Archer over his 20 career starts, pegging him with a 2-12 record and a 5.49.

David Price tossed his best outing of the season on Thursday, posting a complete game, two-run five-hit gem, against Baltimore. He struck out eight. The only runs that were charged to his line came on a ninth inning, two-out, two-run homer to Manny Machado, but the blast was not enough to ruin Price’s second consecutive strong effort, completed on an efficient 95 pitches (65 strikes, 68% strike rate). The southpaw recently copped to a bout with carpal tunnel syndrome, which comes as no surprise to anyone that follows Price and knows his proclivity for video games. The former Ray has had a tough time against his previous team, going 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA. Price is 37-30 with a 2.84 ERA in 90 career starts at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (5-18, 2 2B), Wilson Ramos (4-11, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Blake Snell didn’t put together a perfect inning until the sixth, yet he made big pitches when he needed to, holding the Angels scoreless until the fifth when Andrelton Simmons hit a two-run, two-strike single to center with one out — cutting the lead to four runs. Still, the southpaw stranded leadoff doubles in the second and third innings, and held Los Angeles to 1-9 with runners in scoring position.

After the Simmons single, Snell retired his next seven batters, collecting three punch outs along the way. He scattered four hits and two runs over 6-2/3 innings, walking three and fanning eight. Snell threw 70 of 114 pitches for strikes (61% strike rate).

Red Sox starter to be announced.

Noteworthiness

— OF Carlos Gomez (right groin strain) has progressed to playing catch and will ramp up baseball activities on Tuesday in hopes of returning when eligible on Saturday (or shortly after).

— SS Adeiny Hechavarria (right hamstring) is still in the “getting treatment” stage, according to Rays skipper Kevin Cash.

— RHP Nathan Eovaldi (arthroscopic elbow surgery) will make his fourth, and likely final, rehab start on Wednesday for Triple-A Durham.

— On Tuesday, Tampa native Christian Arroyo is slated to play his first home game for the Rays.

I’m looking forward to it, Arroyo said. It’ll be fun, part of that whole homecoming thing. It’ll be exciting.

Arroyo joined the club last week when shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria was injured and quickly made a good first impression, going 4-10 with a triple, two-runs and an RBI.

LBWMF: Rays fall 1-0 amidst Snell/Price pitching duel

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Blake Snell and Wilson Ramos, working in tandem, both did some nice things Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Blake Snell and David Price locked up for a pitcher’s duel on Friday, yet it was the Rays former ace that came out on top. The Boston Red Sox evened the Opening Series with the Tampa Bay Rays at one, winning 1-0 at Tropicana Field.

Snell allowed three hits and two walks while fanning two in over 5-2/3 innings, on 84 pitches (49 strikes; 59% strike ratio). After the game, Snell said he was “happy with (my) consistency in the zone … happy with my tempo … happy with my defense, I mean they really played great,” while also complimenting Ramos’ work behind the plate.

He, however, recognized that he needed to attack the zone more, especially later in the game — against a good contact team like the Red Sox — and that he tried to rack up the strikeouts and be a little too dirty. That, a handful of deep counts, and a pair of walks speak to his marginally high number of pitches thrown (14.8 pitches per inning). Compare that with Price, who got into just two three-ball counts over his seven inning start — all on just 76 pitches (55 strikes, 72% strike ratio).

Both starters cruised through the first five innings, although each team got a runner into scoring position in the fourth. In the top of that frame, the Rays defense really stepped up.

With two outs, Hanley Ramirez singled to left off Snell before J.D. Martinez worked a free pass. Xander Bogaerts then looped a ball to shallow left, but Rob Refsnyder made a sensational diving catch to end the frame.

Ramos also gunned down Christian Vazquez at second as he attempted to move up on a passed ball in the third inning. Over the first two games, his arm strength and accuracy have looked absolutely filthy. I should also acknowledge Adeiny Hechavarria’s tumbling catch in shallow left, which robbed Eduardo Nunez of a bloop single in the same inning.

Snell, for the most part, cruised through Boston’s lineup until the sixth inning. With one out, the left-hander walked Mookie Betts on five pitches before Andrew Benintendi flew out to deep left for the second out. Yet Ramirez looped a ball to right, and Carlos Gomez appeared to lose the ball in the lights, allowing it to fall in for a single. And with runners on the corners and 84 pitches under Snell’s belt, Kevin Cash called upon Chaz Roe to face Martinez. The $110-million man struck out on a breaking pitch to end the threat.

Roe took the mound again in the seventh, but his night was done after he allowed a leadoff double to left to Bogaerts. With a lefty Rafael Devers stepping into the batter’s box, Cash called upon flame throwing southpaw Jose Alvarado.

Alvarado got ahead of Devers 0-2 before he allowed an RBI ground single to center, making it a one run game. Nunez followed by chopping a ball off the plate, wide of first, and beat it out for an infield hit. Nevertheless, Alvarado got Jackie Bradley Jr. to roll into a 4-6-3 double play, then fanned Vazquez to limit the damage.

On the other side of the plate, the Rays got a chance to plate a run in the bottom of the fourth when Kevin Kiermaier reached on an infield hit; the first hit of the game for Tampa Bay. Then C.J. Cron singled hard to left with two outs, bringing Ramos to the plate. But the catcher flew out to deep right to end the inning.

Matt Andriese kept Tampa Bay within a run by throwing a pair of scoreless innings to finish the game, which also signaled that he would not be starting the bullpen duty game on Saturday.

In the end, one run was enough for Price, who scattered four singles and went on to fan five. After losing the lead on Thursday, Matt Barnes threw a scoreless eighth — although he did allow a walk to Denard Span — while Craig Kimbrel struck out the side to notch his first save of the season.

Remember:

If you don’t expect to much from me, you might not be let down.

The New What Next

The Rays will break in their first bullpen day of the season on Saturday, and Andrew Kittredge will technically get the start. The ‘pen will be opposed by former Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello.

Kittredge will make the 12th start of his pro career, and the first in the majors. The right-hander pitched 2-2/3 innings in each of his final two spring training outings.

Just like the way he threw the ball in spring training, Cash said when asked why Kittredge. (I) think he can go in there and provide some length for us and get us to where we need to get the bullpen going.

Expect either Ryan Yarbrough or Yonny Chirinos to follow Kittredge on the mound.

Talk about a descent into mediocrity. Pocello went from a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP Cy Young Award winning 2016 campaign, to a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2017. His home run per nine innings rate ballooned to 1.68, while nearly all his pitches got launched into the outfield stands — including his vaunted sinker. As FanGraphs found, his pair of fastballs that fueled his 2016 success each saw their ISOs balloon, averaging .206 between them and allowing a combined 22 HR. Meanwhile, his changeup – a pitch known as a consistent strike-earning offering early in counts – faced a similar fate, getting slapped with a .276 ISO and 24.0% HR/FB rate. There’s reason to believe his stuff just isn’t all that great. His fastball velocity hovers around 90 mph, and he not only needs to effectively control his pitches, but also mix them well. He also needs to sprinkle in some deception to get through lineups. He may come closer to returning to his 2017 form, however, that amazing season should be viewed as the exception, not the rule. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (3-10), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (11-37, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (13-35, 4 RBI, 2 BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 3/31/18 Starting Lineup

Span DH
Kiermaier CF
Gomez RF
Miller 1B
Duffy 3B
Wendle 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith LF
Sucre C
Kittredge RHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will throw a 1998 party on Saturday, with Devil Rays uniforms, a pre-game ceremony, and more. Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) detailed the events, writing:

The Rays are turning back the clock with more than just throwback Devil Rays uniforms today, honoring the inaugural 1998 team on the 20th anniversary of the first game in franchise history.

Eighteen 1998 players (headlined by Hall of Famer Wade Boggs), two  coaches (Orlando Gomez, Greg Riddoch), GM Chuck LaMar and managing general partner Vince Naimoli are all expected at Trop for a series of memory-stirring events, topped by an on-field ceremony before the 6:10 p.m. game vs. Boston.

Wilson Alvarez, who threw the first pitch in franchise history, will have the ceremonial honors tonight, throwing to Mike DiFelice (standing in for starter John Flaherty, who has Yankees TV duties),  with now-retired umpire Richie Garcia agaun behind the plate.

The Rays also will unveil a 20th anniversary exhibit in space near the team store and Ted Williams museum. Several 1998 players will sign autographs there starting around 4:30 p.m. after greet fans in the rotunda area when gates open at 4:10. Fans will received a 1998 replica seat cushion, similar to the purple ones given out at the inaugural game.

Other players scheduled to attend include: Rolando Arrojo, Rich Butler, Miguel Cairo, Rick Gorecki, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Ledesma, Albie Lopez, Quinton McCracken, Jim Mecir, Bryan Rekar, Tony Saunders, Bobby Smith, Dennis Springer, Randy Winn and Esteban Yan.

LBWMF: Rays open season with a 6-4 comeback victory over Boston

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Opening Day paint behind home plate. (Photo Credit: Bay News 9)

I love the Gin Blossoms, and not in an ironic or guilty pleasure sort of way. As I rode my bike down the Pinellas Trail, and toward Tropicana Field, yesterday afternoon, a Gin Blossoms-like mantra for the Tampa Bay Rays 2018 campaign popped into my head:

If you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down.

See, when the expectations are lowered, it’s a little easier to sit back and enjoy the ride. And with that, I entered the Trop for Opening Day 2018.

I found my seat just as the ceremonial hoopla was settling down. Chris Archer, making his fourth straight Opening Day start, eventually took the mound and delivered a first pitch fastball to Mookie Betts, which was hammered to the triangle in centerfield into Outlaw territory.

Kevin Kiermaier tracked the ball and made a running and leaping catch at the wall.

The start of Kiermaier’s third Gold Glove campaign is underway!

After 11 more pitches, Archer put Boston to sleep in the top of the first in efficient fashion — notching a swinging strikeout of Hanley Ramirez along the way.

Yet the top of the second inning didn’t start off so hot for Tampa Bay, as the $100-million man, J.D. Martinez, worked a full count walk, Xander Bogaerts lined a double to left-center, and miscommunication between Denard Span and Kevin Kiermaier — resulting in an inside the park home run by Eduardo Nunez — found the Rays in a quick three-run hole.

Then on the other side of the plate, the Rays couldn’t get anything started against Red Sox ace Chris Sale, managing just one hit over the first six innings. Aside from a two-out rally in the bottom of the second, where Denard Span (walk) and Adeiny Hechavarria (single) found themselves in scoring position after a passed ball with Daniel Robertson at the plate, the Rays didn’t mount another threat until the eighth. Robertson struck out looking at a 95 mph fastball to end the second.

If you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down.

Yet Archer settled down and cruised through the next four frames, holding the score at 3-0. The right-hander efficiently carved through Boston’s lineup — at one point retiring eight consecutive batters — by forcing contact as opposed to depending solely upon the strikeout. That’s not to say the punch outs didn’t come, because they did — he racked up six on the day.

Archer even started what appeared to be a trend in the first inning, throwing a changeup which set up a slider for a strikeout. He, however, only threw two more on the day. While a handful of changeups could have effectively setup his slider — as it had in the first — and kept Boston’s hitters off his fastball, the lack of a third pitch set up a third time through the order penalty for Archer.

Kevin Cash decided to send the right-hander out for the seventh, given Archer’s low pitch count (under 80 pitches), but it didn’t take long for the skipper to pull him in Favor of Austin Pruitt. Bogaerts and Rafael Devers tagged the ace for back-to-back doubles, consequently extending Boston’s lead to four.

Yet Pruitt, perhaps surprisingly, shut the door on the Red Sox in relief, coaxing a pair of ground outs sandwiched around an infield pop up. Then in the eighth, Pruitt worked around a Betts single and a Ramirez walk to keep the game within reach. Most notably, Wilson Ramos caught Betts leaning and gunned him down at first.

If you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down.

The table was set for a comeback of epic proportions, and the bottom of the eighth was going to be the time to make a move.

Robertson led off the inning with the walk against Joe Kelly. After Rob Refsnyder struck out looking on four pitches, Matt Duffy took a fastball to right field for a double, driving in the first run of the year for the Rays.

Next, with one out and down by three, Kiermaier and Carlos Gomez worked back-to-back free passes, loading the bases and chasing Kelly. Boston’s skipper Alex Cora called upon Carson Smith, who quickly walked Brad Miller — driving home a run putting the Rays down by just a pair.

Unfortunately Ramos did the opposite of what he was acquired to do with the bases loaded, and went down swinging for the second out of the inning. Be that as it may, the strikeout scripted the perfect situation for Span, the hometown kid who enabled the inside the park homer in the second inning.

Span worked the count full before he pulled a fastball down the right field line, pulling into third base and giving the Rays a one-run lead.

A bouncer over the mound from Hechavarria brought home Span and put the Rays up by two, capping the scoring.

Alex Colome entered the game with a two-run cushion which allowed fans to breathe a little easier given how many times he, uhh … made things a little too interesting last season. Colome worked around a hard-hit, two-out double by Nunez in the ninth to earn his first save of the year.

Just check out that wild ride!


Source: FanGraphs

The New What Next

Blake Snell will toe the rubber for the Rays on Friday, pitching against former ace David Price in a battle of southpaws.

A tale of two halves would be the best way to describe Snell’s 2017 campaign. The left-hander compiled a 4.85 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 52 first-half innings, then turned in a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half. Mechanical and placement adjustments on the rubber were catalysts that drove the positive results. Snell’s secondary offerings — slider, curveball and changeup — all have great whiff rates, with the first two sitting over 20%. His Fastball strike rate remained the same over both halves, although his BB/9 plummeted from 5.7% to 3.2%, and his whiff rate rose over 3%. If the second half of 2017 is indicitive of anything, Snell is ready to push himself up the ranks of a top-20 starter.

The former Ray was known as one of the best workhorses in the big leagues prior to 2017, notching 200+ innings in six of the past seven seasons (186-2/3 innings in 2013 with Tampa Bay being the sole exception). However, Price started last season with a mysterious arm injury, then was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation leading to the “injury prone” label which found him in the bullpen. Price returned from his malaise pumping 94.9 mph as a reliever and looking very much like the ace of old. If Price can become more consistent with his sinker, while also maintaining his fastball velocity, there is a solid chance he can return to the upper levels of the starting pitcher landscape. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-7), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, 2B, HR, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-3) 

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 3/30/18 Starting Lineup

Duffy 3B
Kiermaier CF
Gomez RF
Cron DH
Ramos C
Miller 1B
Hechavarria SS
Robertson 2B
Refsnyder LF
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), yesterday’s come from behind victory was big for a couple of reasons:

1. The comeback from 4–0 down matched the franchise’s largest comeback win ever on Opening Day. The other one also happened against the Red Sox in 2003.

2. Tampa Bay won just five times last year when trailing after seven innings, and the six-run inning at home was the team’s largest at Tropicana Field since the season finale in 2015.

— Ouch! Former face of the franchise, Evan Longoria, went 0-4 with three strikeouts in his regular season debut with San Francisco. Meanwhile Logan Morrison went 0-3 with a strikeout and a walk. On the pitching side of things, Jake Odorizzi threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball, while walking two and fanning seven.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — an Opening Series Preview

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Jacob Faria, Chris Archer and Blake Snell are slated to pitch in the Opening Series against the Red Sox. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

After a long winter filled with cost cutting roster moves — necessitating the addition of players unfamiliar to many casual fans of the Tampa Bay Rays — the Opening Series is finally upon us. The Rays and those Massholes will jump right into AL East division head-to-head action starting Thursday at the Trop. The Red Sox captured the division title last season before losing to the eventual World Series champion, Houston, right away, while the Rays went 80-82 to finish in third place in the East.

The Rays traded away the face of the franchise, Evan Longoria, and either traded away or let go of the top three home run producers on the team: Logan Morrison (38 homers in 2017), Steven Souza Jr. (30), and Corey Dickerson (27). However, they also each ranked among the top 10 in whiffs on four-seam fastballs. Because of it, the Rays sought out replacements that fare better against four-seam fastballs (Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and C.J. Cron). Tampa Bay’s offense is projected to improve its team-wide strikeout rate by more than 4%, best in the big leagues.

Still, in spite of all the lateral moves, the Rays neither improved the roster nor got worse. Back in February, before Black Saturday, the Rays were projected by PECOTA to go 84-78 on the season — the exact same projected W/L record as in 2017 — and PECOTA hasn’t really deviated from that projection since; +/- one win or loss.

Because the team is bereft of high powered veterans, as RJ Anderson (Baseball Prospectus) noted, a lot of things have to go right for Tampa Bay if it is going to hit the 83 or 84 high water mark projection:

I’m focusing on the postseason part more than the 83-win projection part. At minimum, Kiermaier has to stay healthy, and Snell and Faria have to be legitimate above-average starters. You can also throw in that the bullpen has to way overachieve and the lineup has to have most/all the question marks (Denard Span, Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Matt Duffy) avoid injury and cratering. Oh, and the kids probably have to hit the ground running, especially Adames. That we can list so many things reveals why it’s hard to take the projection seriously―it feels like there are bigger error bars here than with most teams.

2018 PECOTA projections for the Rays and Red Sox. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

Starting pitching and a lag in power let the Red Sox down in the 2017 Postseason. Boston tried to address both issues this winter, signing 30 year-old J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110-million deal, and making a greater effort to manage Chris Sale’s offseason workload after he tired down the stretch. Sale led all of baseball with 308 strikeouts, yet finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting after going 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA in August and September. The biggest boost to the rotation could be a full season from former Cy Young Award winner David Price, who made only 11 starts last season but came through spring training in apparent fine form.

Pitching Matchups

2017 Stats. (Credit: FanGraphs)

Chris Archer: Archer has elite strengths, thanks to his high velocity fastball/nasty slider combination. He, however, may also have a home run weakness due to his reticence to lean on a changeup he barely believes in. The 2018 projections see the excellent strikeout rate and the decent walk rate, and figure he should regress towards the league average in the home runs allowed category. Even so, Archer is still a two-pitch pitcher, and the slugging rates on his two main pitches skyrocket the third time through the order. Studies on the subject show the addition of a third pitch, especially during the later innings, can lead to a softer third time through the order penalty, and under ideal circumstances that is something the right-hander worked on during Spring Training. The known known: Archer is going to rack up the strikeouts, but also give up a fair amount of home runs the third time through the order, when he’s still mostly throwing fastballs and sliders. Archer fanned 18 in 15-1/3 innings against Red Sox last season, although he went 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in those three starts.

Chris Sale: Last season, tweaks to Sale’s pitch mix returned a ten-point boost to his strikeout rate. The southpaw notched up his slider usage nearly eight points and sprinkled in a few more changeups, favoring his fastball in deeper counts. The result was a 43% strikeout rate and a 13.9% whiff rate on his heater, and a monstrous 36.2% strikeout rate overall. The rebound propelled Sale past the 300 strikeout total en route to a 2.90 ERA/2.45 FIP/0.97 WHIP. If not for five starts where he was tagged for 26 earned runs (over his final 11 starts) Sale would have claimed his first Cy Young Award. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (5-14, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (4-11, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (3-11, 3B, RBI)

Blake Snell: A tale of two halves would be the best way to describe Snell’s 2017 campaign. The left-hander compiled a 4.85 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 52 first-half innings, then turned in a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half. Mechanical and placement adjustments on the rubber were catalysts that drove the positive results. Snell’s secondary offerings — slider, curveball and changeup — all have great whiff rates, with the first two sitting over 20%. His Fastball strike rate remained the same over both halves, although his BB/9 plummeted from 5.7% to 3.2%, and his whiff rate rose over 3%. If the second half of 2017 is indicitive of anything, Snell is ready to push himself up the ranks of a top-20 starter.

David Price: The former Ray was known as one of the best workhorses in the big leagues prior to 2017, notching 200+ innings in six of the past seven seasons (186-2/3 innings in 2013 with Tampa Bay being the sole exception). However, Price started last season with a mysterious arm injury, then was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation leading to the “injury prone” label which found him in the bullpen. Price returned from his malaise pumping 94.9 mph as a reliever and looking very much like the ace of old. If Price can become more consistent with his sinker, while also maintaining his fastball velocity, there is a solid chance he can return to the upper levels of the starting pitcher landscape. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-7), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, 2B, HR, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-3) 

Rays Bullpen Day

Rick Porcello: Talk about a descent into mediocrity. Pocello went from a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP Cy Young Award winning 2016 campaign, to a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2017. His home run per nine innings rate ballooned to 1.68, while nearly all his pitches got launched into the outfield stands — including his vaunted sinker. As FanGraphs found, his pair of fastballs that fueled his 2016 success each saw their ISOs balloon, averaging .206 between them and allowing a combined 22 HR. Meanwhile, his changeup – a pitch known as a consistent strike-earning offering early in counts – faced a similar fate, getting slapped with a .276 ISO and 24.0% HR/FB rate. There’s reason to believe his stuff just isn’t all that great. His fastball velocity hovers around 90 mph, and he not only needs to effectively control his pitches, but also mix them well. He also needs to sprinkle in some deception to get through lineups. He may come closer to returning to his 2017 form, however, that amazing season should be viewed as the exception, not the rule. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (3-10), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (11-37, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (13-35, 4 RBI, 2 BB)

Jacob Faria: The right-hander hit the ground running in his rookie campaign, boasting a stellar 2.00 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his first seven starts. Yet despite improving his strikeout marks in the following five outings, Faria battled an abdominal injury that eventually sidelined him for a month in mid-August. While his velocity isn’t impressive, his fastball can boast some occasional cutting action that confounds hitters. Moreover, the “rising” action on the pitch plays well with his split-change and slider, which create vertical drop differentials of seven and nine inches (respectively). Per Nick Pollack (FanGraphs) Faria’s slider is his jack-of-all-trades offering that excels in any count, let it be stealing a strike early (48.3% zone rate), inducing grounders (52.2%) and pop-ups (21.1%), or earning a whiff with its sharp break (14.2%). Meanwhile, Faria’s changeup shuts the door effectively, using its 23.8% whiff rate to generate a 45.5% K rate across 244 thrown. If he can consistently command his fastball, including that cutting action, he will take the next step with the Rays.

Hector Velázquez: The scouting report on Velázquez per Over the Monster:

Velázquez offers three pitches that he trusts. His fastball isn’t overpowering, coming in at the low-90’s. He also offers a solid changeup and a splitter that’s been attributed with the reason for his 2016 breakout in Mexico. Velazquez isn’t going to overpower anyone, but at his best he throws strikes and limits free passes. That’ll play as a replacement-level pitcher, and given the lack of knowledge on him around the league he could even be better.

Noteworthiness

— Need some answered questions on Opening Day? Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) has got you covered.

— Don’t forget to check out our season preview:

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: A Tampa Bay Rays 2018 season preview of sorts