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TNWN: Rays vs Red Sox part two — a series preview

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Michael Pérez came up with a pair of big runs batted in during the four-game set against the Yankees, including a walk-off base hit in the series finale. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a successful 4-2 homestand which included a series win against the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays embark on their longest road trip of the truncated season — a 10-game, 11-day jaunt through Boston, Toronto Buffalo, and the Bronx. The first stop is Fenway, where the Rays will begin a four-game set against the Red Sox on Monday. Boston took two-of-three from the Blue Jays over the weekend.

Aside from a lopsided 8-4 loss in the first game of a doubleheader on Saturday (in which Sean Gilmartin — husband of professional asshole Kayleigh McEnany — gave up two home runs in relief of Tyler Glasnow), the Rays looked like, well … the Rays against the Yankees. They limited New York to an average of 3.75 runs per game because they kept the ball in the park; home runs account for approximately 70% of the Yankees’ offensive production. The pitching gave up a total of three home runs. When you subtract Gilmartin from the equation — cough, which the Rays did on Sunday when they designated the hurler for assignment — the average run total across the four-game set drops to three.

The Rays were also advantageous at the plate, scoring nine two-out runs — 75% of their total run output over the life of the series.

I can’t believe Brandon Lowe would be that disrespectful to the Yankees by looking into their dugout. Oh, the ghastly horror of it all.

In the finale, Tampa Bay found itself in a late 3-0 hole but rallied to earn the win and take three-out-of-four in the series. Michael Brosseau was the only player with two hits in the game; Brosseau and Brandon Lowe each homered in the contest while Michael Perez hit the walk-off RBI base hit in the bottom of the ninth. However, aside from their play at home, Tampa Bay had been awful over the last week and change. They have to get things going in a positive direction if they hope to live up to their expectations as a contender for the American League pennant. To their credit, the Rays got back to .500 and made up ground in the AL East. Now, they need to start adding some separation between the win and loss columns.

Meanwhile, the Massholes Red Sox managed to win the rubber match of their home set against the Blue Jays to win the series. They enter this set tied for fourth in the AL East, 4-1/2 games behind the Yankees for the top spot in the division. Boston collected just four hits on Sunday, although three of them left the yard. Mitch Moreland homered twice and Rafael Devers hit his second of the year. Moreland’s second of the game was the walk-off homer that gave the Red Sox the win.

The AL East rivals split a two-game series at the Trop, with Tuesday’s starter, Martín Pérez, blanking the Rays across five innings. Time will tell if familiarity breeds contempt, and the Rays’ hitters will better be equipped to beat up on the finesse lefty, as well as the rest of Boston’s rotation.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 3.78 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Tuesday’s contest, Blake Snell (0-0, 3.38 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (0-2, 3.78 ERA) over the next four days. Ron Roenicke will counter with Colten Brewer (0-0, 2.57 ERA) at some point in the series opener, Martín Pérez (2-1, 3.45 ERA), Zack Godley (0-1, 3.97 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

Ryan Yarbrough allowed five earned runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out five across five innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Yarbrough had a scoreless outing through 3-2/3 innings but surrendered a two-run home run to Alex Verdugo to open the scoring. He completely fell apart in the sixth inning, allowing all five batters he faced to reach base, with the big blow being a two-run home run off the bat of Michael Chavis. Despite the poor outing, Yarbrough maintains a 3.78 ERA across 16-2/3 innings to begin the season. He is 3-2 with a 5.36 ERA against the Red Sox, and 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA at Fenway.

Colten Brewer will likely cover a bulk of the innings for Monday’s game against the Rays, either as a long reliever or a traditional starter. Considering Brewer hasn’t tossed more than 44 pitches in any of his five appearances on the season, Boston likely won’t ask him to push much further beyond the 60-to-75-pitches. Brewer relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph cutter and an 81 mph curveball with exceptional bite and glove-side movement, while also mixing in a hard 90 mph slider. He is 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA in 10 games (8-1/3 IP) against the Rays, and 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 35 appearances (35 IP) at Fenway. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.

TBA

Martín Pérez allowed four hits and three walks while striking out four across five scoreless innings against the Rays on Wednesday. Pérez allowed a double to the first batter he faced, but managed work out of the early jam with a pop-up, ground out, and a strikeout. The lefty faced a similar scenario in the fourth inning but remained unscathed. Pérez has given himself a thin margin for error across three starts this season, striking out 11 and walking nine across 15-2/3 innings. Even with his success on Wednesday, Pérez is 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA against the Rays, and 2-2 with a 6.18 ERA at Fenway. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (4-12, 2 2B), Brandon Lowe (2-5), Mike Zunino (6-20, 3 HR)

Blake Snell got the start Friday and fired three shutout innings against the Yankees. He allowed no hits and two walks while punching out five on 59 pitches (32 strikes, 54% strike rate). Even though Snell didn’t allow any hits or runs Friday, he struggled with his command. Even so, the southpaw worked around leadoff walks to DJ LeMahieu and Gary Sanchez in the first and third innings (respectively). Snell had hoped to go four-to-five innings, although his struggles in throwing strikes limited his mound time, although he did increase his count if just slightly. Still, he lowered his ERA to 3.38 ERA (4.25 FIP), and his K:BB now stands at 3.5:1 over eight innings across his first three starts of the season.

Me going three innings and then having to cover, I mean that’s a tough task. They’re always ready. … This bullpen is just a great bullpen. Whenever I get out of the game, I’m never worried. These guys are coming in, they’re getting it done, and it’s a great feeling as a starter to know your bullpen is that stacked and they’re going to fight.

— Blake Snell

Zack Godley tossed four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out three against the Blue Jays on Saturday. Godley did his part Saturday, yet the Red Sox mustered just one run on four hits, which clearly wasn’t enough. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 11 strikeouts across 11-1/3 innings this season. Godley relies primarily on an 89 mph cutter that has some natural sink and a hard 83 mph 12-6 curveball, while also mixing in an 83 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone. He is 0-0 with a 6.74 ERA in two outings (4 IP) against the Rays, and 0-0 with a 0.68 ERA in three games (13-1/3 IP) at Fenway. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (6-25, 3B), Hunter Renfroe (5-20, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (2-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed four runs on five hits in just 2-2/3 innings of work on Saturday, striking out five while walking three. Glasnow matched Gerrit Cole with a pair of scoreless frames to start the game, getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the second inning, but he allowed a two-run homer to Mike Ford and a two-run double to Gio Urshela in the third, forcing him from the game. Glasnow now owns a 5.56 ERA through his first three starts, with a 2.38:1 K:BB and a 30.0% HR/FB rate. Glasnow is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox, and 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA at Fenway.

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Charlie Morton has been placed on the 10-day Injured List retroactive to Sunday, August 9. Morton, who left Sunday’s start with right shoulder inflammation, joins Yonny Chirinos as the second Rays’ starter on the shelf.

After Sunday’s game, Morton said he didn’t think the injury was serious. It’s possible that with an off-day on Monday, Morton could return off the IL after missing just one start if the stay is a minimal one.

— Senior VP/GM Erik Neander said Yonny Chirinos’ (right tricep inflammation) IL stint could be a minimal one, and the right-hander could return for the series in Buffalo.

— More on the status of both hurlers should be known later this afternoon when Rays skipper Kevin Cash speaks with the media during his daily Zoom call.

— Tampa Bay has not yet listed a starter for Tuesday’s game and could start Trevor Richards in Morton’s spot for the time being. Richards threw 76 pitches across four innings on Sunday and could also be used with an opener in front of him.

Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), The five-man taxi squad includes two pitchers who could provide length in Anthony Banda, a lefty who is on the 40-man roster, and right Aaron Slegers, who is not on the roster currently.

TNWN: Rays vs. Red Sox — a series preview; Meadows activated from the IL

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At least Yonny Chirinos looked good in Baltimore.

After a well-needed off-day on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back on track when the Boston Red Sox come into town for a two-game series. Tampa Bay went 4-1 on the opening homestand, yet lost all five games on the team’s first road trip, averaging just 2.6 runs per game. Boston was swept by the Yankees and also had a Monday off-day.

The Rays trailed in four of their five road games (nine of 10 overall), and had to deal with multi-run deficits in the majority of them. They scored first just one of those games and just two overall this season, the lowest total in the American League. On Sunday, Tampa Bay was down by just one run until the sixth inning, yet the bullpen gave up three in the seventh as the game slipped away. Looking at things from a similar perspective, 3/4 of their wins this season have been of the come-from-behind variety, and that’s not a sustainable game-winning strategy over the long-haul.

A team-wide .210 BA/.303 OBP/.368 SLG/.671 OPS slash line certainly hasn’t helped the cause. And while the Rays are drawing walks at a decent clip, a 24.7% strikeout rate, paired with the aforementioned slash line, tends to drown out any superlatives.

As Joe Smith (The Athletic) writes, some positives have bled through, although the big boppers have left a lot to be desired.

There have been some bright spots, like a healthy Joey Wendle hitting .292, Renfroe providing some pop (two homers, seven RBIs) and Lowe’s team-leading eight RBIs (.286 average). Willy Adames is getting on base (.438 on-base percentage)

But you look at Kevin Kiermaier (.200 batting average), Yoshi Tsutsugo (.200), Ji-Man Choi (.167, 11 strikeouts) and Yandy Díaz (.167), there’s plenty of guys who have more to give. Renfroe, despite his power, is hitting .182. Catcher Mike Zunino is off to a 2-for-23 start (.087 batting average). Anderson believes they’re bound to snap out of some of their slumps.

— Joe Smith

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have allowed the second-most runs per game in the American League, yet they have been marginally better at the plate, outpacing them in slugging (.425), OPS (.741), ISO (.168), wOBA (.324), wRC+ (105), and wRAA (3.3). They will enter the series with their two best hurlers on the mound.

(The Rays over/under .500 thus far.)

Smith also made mention of the intangibles that are currently impacting Tampa Bay.

There have been some uncharacteristic mistakes both defensively and on the basepaths, as shown during the series in Baltimore. Adames already committed his fourth error of the season on Saturday, with the Rays leading the AL with 10. They had two more errors in four of their last seven games.

Cash said Sunday that he knows players like Adames will continue to work on their defense, and the key as a staff is to remain positive with them, knowing that they’re fully capable of executing. We’ve already seen Kiermaier flash his Gold Glove-caliber defense, including a highlight-reel relay throw.

— Joe Smith

In short, this is a must-win series against an AL East rival that is also faltering. If the Rays want to come out of this series at .500, they must turn up the heat in the batter’s box. And if that means temporarily benching Renfroe, Kiermaier, Zunino, and Margot, so be it. Moreover, the fielders must become more dependable, and the pitching staff, which is still ninth in the league with a 3.76 ERA, cannot afford to give up any late runs as it had in Atlanta and Baltimore.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (0-1, 8.00 ERA) and Ryan Yarbrough (0-1, 1.54 ERA) over the next two days. Ron Roenicke will counter with Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.45 ERA), and Martín Pérez (1-1, 5.06 ERA).

Charlie Morton bounced back nicely from his Opening Day start, throwing five innings of two-run ball, allowing six hits, and one walk while striking out seven. He threw 80 pitches (55 strikes, 69% strike rate), and coaxed 13 swings and misses (24% whiff rate). Morton’s second start of the season was a marked improvement over his first in which he allowed six earned runs. The right-hander was hurt by a third-inning two-run blast off the bat of Freddie Freeman, although he held Atlanta scoreless in each of his other four frames. Morton was the beneficiary of three defensive gems during his outing, which limited the damage against him.

In the first inning, Ronald Acuña Jr. tried to score from first on a double to right-center. However, Kevin Kiermaier threw a bullet to Brandon Lowe, who then fired to Mike Zunino to cut down Acuña Jr. at the plate.

Then, down by a pair in the third inning, Kiermaier made a sliding catch to rob Matt Adams of a hit with a runner aboard, preventing another run from crossing the plate.

Finally, in the fifth inning, Manuel Margot made a leaping catch against the left-field wall to take away an extra-base hit from Adams and a run or two.

Morton is 5-1 with a 4.09 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox.

Nathan Eovladi, the former Ray, allowed two runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out four across five innings against the Mets. At 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, Eovaldi is the clear ace of the Red Sox staff. Still, the right-hander’s boasts a two steps forward one step back track record, which the Rays anemic offense will try to remind him of on Tuesday. In case you forgot, Eovaldi relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action and slight arm-side run and a whiffy 90 mph slider, while also mixing in an 88 mph splitter with natural sink, a 93 mph cutter, and a 79 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and glove-side movement. Over his career against Tampa Bay, he is 2-4 with a 5.45 ERA. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (3-9, 3B), Joey Wendle (3-5, 2B, HR)

Ryan Yarbrough was charged with a tough-luck loss against Atlanta on Thursday, allowing just two runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six across 6-1/3 innings. Yarbrough worked his way into a second-inning jam after hitting Adam Duvall with a pitch, then allowing Dansby Swanson to score on Marcell Ozuna’s on an RBI single. Later, he surrendered Atlanta’s final run of the night on a sac-fly to Austin Riley. Yet it was an otherwise effective performance as the southpaw threw 56 of 87 pitches for strikes (64% strike rate). Unfortunately, the offense failed to provide enough run support to get him the win. The finesse lefty is 3-1 with a 4.84 ERA in nine career outings (three starts) against Boston.

Martín Pérez allowed two runs on two hits and four walks while striking out five across 5-2/3 innings against the Mets on Thursday. Pérez was effective in all but the third inning when he walked two batters and hit another, loading the bases for Jeff McNeil, who singled into left field to drive in two. It was a bounce-back performance from Pérez after he surrendered four earned runs in his first start with Boston. The 29-year-old southpaw relies primarily on an 88 mph cutter with strong cutting action and a whiffy 83 mph circle changeup with some natural sink, while also mixing in a 91 mph sinker, a 91 mph four-seam fastball, and a 77 mph 12-6 curveball. Pérez is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 career outings (eight starts) against Tampa Bay). Key Matchup: Mike Zunino (6-18)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have reinstated Austin Meadows (COVID-19) from the Injured List and optioned RHP Trevor Richards to the alternate training site in Port Charlotte.

— The Rays announced that they have placed OF Manuel Margot on the bereavement list due to the death of his father, and they have recalled OF Brian O’Grady from the Port Charlotte alternate site camp.

During Spring Training, O’Grady hit two home runs and posted a 1.139 OPS across 25 plate appearances. His success continued into Summer Camp when he decimated pitches once again.

Our thoughts go out to the Margot family for their loss.

— Hey Red Sox, we aren’t fans of Massholes or uninformed opinions. Kindly wear a mask, don’t leave your hotel rooms, wash your hands, and stay socially distant from one another to help us stave off another COVID-19 spike.

Rays trade Wilmer Font to the Mets; other roster moves

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The Rays traded RHP Wilmer Font to the Mets for a PTBNL on Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets have reached an agreement for right-handed reliever Wilmer Font in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later.

Font has worked as both an opener and a reliever over the past two seasons, yet aside for a phenomenal stretch before he was placed on the IL with a season ending injury in 2018, he has not found much success at the big league level, with a career 6.51 ERA and a bloated 2.22 HR/9 across 65 innings of work. The right-hander averages 94.3 mph on his fastball, complementing that offering with an 83.2 mph slider and a 75.5 mph curveball.

The trade clears space for RHP Casey Sadler, who was optioned back to Triple-A Durham ahead of Sunday’s postponed game. Sadler has appeared in two games for Tampa Bay this season (totaling four innings of work), relinquishing four total hits while walking none and fanning two.

The Rays also optioned LHP Ryan Yarbrough back to Durham, clearing space on the 25-man roster for UTL Andrew Velasquez. Yarbrough was most recently recalled on Sunday ahead of the rain out. Since there would not be much work for him given their upcoming schedule (three days off over the next eight days), the team chose to air on the side of versatility.

The 24-year-old switch hitting Velasquez can play everywhere on the field
— especially in the middle infield and centerfield — is speedy, so he could be utilized in a pinch running role, and gives the Rays a four-man bench. He made his big league debut last season and spent time with the Rays already this season, although he hadn’t seen any playing time.

LBWMF: Rays look to bounce back from their 3-0 loss on Saturday

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RHP Yonny Chirinos allowed three runs over 7-1/3 innings of work. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Despite a quality start by right-hander Yonny Chirinos, the Tampa Bay Rays fell to, and were shut out, by the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday night, 3-0. The Rays have been shut out twice this season.

With the ever-present fear of a rain delay in the back of Kevin Cash’s mind, the Rays skipper made the decision to give Chirinos an official start — as opposed to pitching behind opener Ryne Stanek — before the start of the game. Baltimore was clearly receptive of the decision, handing the right-hander a three-run deficit in his first four innings of work, yet nothing after that.

In the first inning, Jonathan Villar doubled to left-center on the first pitch of the game, moved up to third on a single into right by Trey Mancini, then scored when Dwight Smith Jr. bounced into a 4-6-3 double play.

Then in the third inning, Stevie Wilkerson singled to left-center, went to third on Austin Wynns’ single into right, and came home Villar’s RBI groundout.

Baltimore tacked on its third and final run in the fourth inning when Smith homered to center field to open the frame, his sixth home run of the season.

Yet Chirinos was able to go 7-1/3 innings, the longest outing by a Rays pitcher this season. He struck out three and kept the game close for the Rays, who couldn’t capitalize on the chances they were given.

Our chances came early on, and we didn’t capitalize. And like I say, he (Bundy) just got into a really good rhythm.

— Kevin Cash

Dylan Bundy, who had allowed nine homers over his 28-1/3 innings of work prior to Saturday’s contest, kept the Rays (who had scored seven runs the night before) off-balance by changing speeds and pitching to the four quadrants of the zone.

After giving up a leadoff single to Brandon Lowe in the first inning, and a double to Avisail Garcia to start the second, Bundy was in control of Tampa Bay’s productive lineup, retiring 10 consecutive batters over one stretch before Daniel Robertson walked with one out in the fifth.

The Rays’ best chance came in the eighth inning after Michael Perez doubled to left field chasing Bundy, and Shawn Armstrong came on in relief.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1124842959969574913

Willy Adames followed with a swinging bunt in front of the plate. Armstrong fielded the ball but and threw wild to first base, allowing Perez to score from second.

But the umpires ruled that Adames had run out of the baseline, into the grass on the left-hand side of the baseline, and called interference. Adames, who conceded after the game that he was unaware that was interference, was out and Perez had to return to second base.

Tampa Bay will look to win the series in the rubber match on Sunday.

The New What Next

Ryne Stanek (0-1, 2.81 ERA) will open for the Rays and will be followed by either Jalen Beeks (1-0, 2.45 ERA) or Ryan Yarbrough (2-1, 8.10 ERA), who was added to the Taxi Squad on Friday. They’ll be opposed by John Means (3-3, 2.81 ERA).

Ryne Stanek is coming off his roughest outing of the season, allowing three runs in one inning against the Royals. Last season, the Orioles were Stanek’s kryptonite as he allowed six runs and five homers over 8-1/3 innings of work. The right-hander pitched a scoreless frame when he faced Baltimore at the Trop, recording three punch outs.

Ryan Yarbrough was brought back from Triple-A Durham after just one outing with the Bulls in which he gave up two runs on seven hits and a walk over five innings of work. He struck out seven.

Jalen Beeks fired off 6-2/3 scoreless frames on Wednesday, allowing a hit, two walks, and a hit batsman. He fanned six. Beeks turned in a highly impressive performance after the opener, Ryne Stanek, gave up three earned runs over his sole inning of work. Beeks has excelled in the “bulk guy” role in two consecutive appearances, also blanking the Royals across 4-2/3 innings on April 23, racking up seven strikeouts along the way. The southpaw has put up good numbers, sporting an outstanding 2.45 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 2.6 K/BB across 25-2/3 innings of work

John Means yielded four runs on six hits and a walk over five innings on Monday. He struck out two batters and allowed two homers. Means hadn’t allowed more than one run in any of his seven appearances (three starts) prior to Monday’s outing, yet he has performed to a lucky .271 BABIP, which is belied by a 4.48 FIP. Put another way, he’s been very lucky this season. Means relies on a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball with a lot of backspin and an 80 mph changeup with slight cut action, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider with little depth, and a 76 mph 12/6 curveball.

You can read about the series in our preview, and the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part two

Rays 5/5/19 Starting Lineup

  1. Diaz 3B
  2. Pham DH
  3. Robertson 2B
  4. Garcia RF
  5. Choi 1B
  6. Zunino C
  7. Kiermaier CF
  8. Heredia LF
  9. Adames SS
  10. Stanek RHO

Noteworthiness

— Casey Sadler was optioned back to Triple-A Durham in order to make room on the 25-man roster for Yarbrough.

— RHP Jose De Leon worked 1-2/3 innings for the Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs on Saturday, allowing three runs (two earned) on two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch. De Leon, who likely would be a bulk innings guy upon his return, threw 14 of his 33 pitches for strikes (42% strike rate). He sat at 90-92 mph in his first official game since 2017, which is much harder than he was throwing in his injury-plagued 2017 season.

— OF Austin Meadows (right thumb sprain) had “a really good day,” in the words of Kevin Cash, taking batting practice at Tropicana Field off the high-velocity machine and is slated to work out with the Rays on Monday and Tuesday then begin a short rehab assignment.

— 3B Matt Duffy (hamstring, back) “felt very good” after his first rehab game with the Stone Crabs, with no issues from the hamstring or back injuries that hampered him since Spring Training. As John Vittas (media relations for the Stone Crabs) tweeted, Duffy finished the night with a good defensive play sliding to his left to field a hard grounder. He went 0-for-3 (two flyouts, one groundout) but most importantly, Duffy looked healthy. He will play next on Sunday.

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

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Tommy Pham scored on a sixth-inning double by CJ Cron on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following their 5-2 win in the road finale against the Blue Jays on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field ahead of a four-game series against the New York Yankees. In spite of the two tough losses in Toronto, the Rays won five of seven during their last road trip of the season. The Yankees took two of three from the lowly Orioles, yet fell 6-3 on Sunday. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 10-10 over a 20-game stretch.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

There is still a way the Rays can make it to the playoffs, albeit one that is absolutely improbable: Tampa Bay must win all seven games on their homestand against the Yankees and Blue Jays, while the Athletics must lose the final six games of their season. The odds of that happening are astronomical, to say the least.

Still, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) opined, the Rays might be motivated to make life tough on the rival Yankees, who are trying to keep the home-field advantage in the AL Wildcard game. On top of that, the team has a chance to finish with 90-plus wins, thus defying even the bullish 85-win PECOTA projection from February. And while that may not offer much solace to the casual fan, two things bear mentioning:

  1. The Rays are a young team with a high upside for years to come. A successful season at the big league level will go a long way for the kids.
  2. The last time the Rays put together a 90+ win campaign without the benefit of a trip to the playoffs (in 2012), they played relevant games past September 30 the following season — a game 163 tie-breaker, and the subsequent Wildcard win thrust them into the ALDS against Boston.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As has been the case for the second half of the season (.268 BA/.346 OBP/.430 SLG/.776 OPS/.336 wOBA/115 +wRC for Tampa Bay vs .242 BA/.326 OBP/.424 SLG/.750 OPS/.325 wOBA/103 wRC+ for New York) the Rays have outperformed the Yankees offensively over the last 14 days. The question begs, however: Can the Rays continue their recent dominance over the Yankees? Tampa Bay has won eight of the last 10 games against the Bronx Bummers after starting the season 0-5. Moreover, the Rays are 5-1 against the Yankees at home.

Pitching Probables

Note: It is rather difficult to project who will take the mound over the life of the series since only one hurler has been named; Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open the series for the Rays. Beyond that, it’s a reasonable assumption the below-listed hurlers will toe the rubber for dueling foes this week, based on when they last pitched. This projection is in no way, shape, or form set in stone. I will make note of any changes as they are announced, either in this series preview or in subsequent articles.

Kevin Cash could lean primarily on Ryan Yarbrough (15-5, 3.88 ERA), Yonny Chirinos (4-5, 3.68 ERA), Jalen Beeks (5-1, 5.36 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA) over the next four days. Aaron Boone could counter with Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (12-5, 3.67 ERA), CC Sabathia (8-7, 3.77 ERA), and Lance Lynn (9-10, 4.80 ERA).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Diego Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Ryan Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Luis Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Yonny Chirinos tossed 4-2/3 scoreless innings, yet took a no-decision on Thursday, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out five. After the “opener” Ryne Stanek allowed three straight hits to start the second inning, Chirinos came in and shut the Blue Jays down. The 24-year-old now owns a 3.68 ERA and would’ve earned the victory had it not been for a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed five earned runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out three across four innings on Thursday against the Red Sox. Tanaka never got comfortable on the mound, allowing at least one earned run in three of the four innings he completed. It was his highest earned run total since August 10, and the first time he has not worked at least five innings in his last eight turns. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA against the Rays this season, including a complete game shutout on July 24. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-6, 2B), Carlos Gomez (3-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (7-22, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2, 2B), Tommy Pham (2-3, 2B, RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

CC Sabathia allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five across six innings in a win against Baltimore on Friday. The southpaw surrendered a two-run single in the fifth inning but exited the ballgame with a four-run lead after throwing 59 of 97 pitches for strikes (61% strike rate). Sabathia was coming off a seven-run, 2-1/3 inning outing — his shortest start of the season. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 135 strikeouts through 148 innings this season. Sabathia is 0-2 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, RBI), Matt Duffy (5-9, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (9-21, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Adam Moore (1-2)  

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite giving up three runs in six innings. He allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while fanning six. The right-hander gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on Rowdy Tellez’s two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. Glasnow notched his fourth quality start in five outings although he is 1-5 in his last six turns.

Lance Lynn didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) in five innings. He allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out four along the way. Lynn has worked either five or six innings and given up two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. He has done just enough to eat innings at the back end of New York’s rotation with questionable depth. In spite of a 4.80 ERA and 4.39 BB/9 on the season, he’s fanned 9.20 batters per nine across 153-2/3 innings. Lynn last faced the Rays on April 20, in a 6 IP/7 H/5 R/5 BB outing. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-2, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3)