X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

Rays remain optimistic, Cubs fans turn the Trop into Wrigley south, and roster moves

By Leave a Comment

The quiet before the rather tepid offensive storm Tuesday night. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After a 2-1 loss to the reigning World Series champions on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to rebound and split the short two-game set, and the season series, with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have won seven straight, while the Rays have won just one game in each of the last three series. They would need to go 8-3 over the final 11 games to finish at .500, while their postseason hopes are all but nonexistent at this point.

Optimism will make you suffer fools gladly.
I’m holding out for you to do the right thing,
Emphatically.

— American Steel

In spite of the monumental odds against them, Rays’ players, like Blake Snell and Steven Souza Jr., remain optimistic that they can salvage the season. Optimism is an intoxicating drug.

I feel all of us still think there’s a shot, said Snell. We all want to do it. We’re all in this together. We always felt there was a shot from the start and all the way to the end.

Souza was a bit more realistic:

We’re running out of time.

Of course Tampa Bay’s playoffs chances have all but evaporated — they start the day five games out of the final Wilcard spot with just 12 games left to play. It certainly doesn’t help that the offense has been all but nonexistent in three of the last four games.

What also doesn’t help, which Chris Archer pointed out last night, is the glaring lack of support from the Rays’ loyal fanbase.

Having 25,000 Cub fans here, wasn’t very fun either.

It’s weird, I didn’t know we had that many mid-western people in Tampa, but I guess we do. It’s just weird for their players to come out and get announced and just get so much love.

It felt like we were at Citi Field, playing the Yankees. Honestly, it felt very similar to that…and I’m not being critical it was just crazy how much royal blue there was out there.

When Wilson Contreras ran out to warm up the pitcher…like he got a standing o.

I’ve been here for however long, I’ve seen some really, really good players come and I’ve never seen anybody get as much love when they go to warm up then some of their players did.

It was definitely more of a road environment as opposed to a home environment tonight.

Granted there are myriad reasons why Rays’ fans skipped out of Tuesday night’s ball game. Although in all fairness, if that was just the second largest crowd of the season, that’s pretty sad. It is clearly evident that there is stadium saga induced PTSD which has affected the attendance all season long. Pair that with an ownership that apparently does not possess the want or the desire to stop being cheap, and start spending money to compete.

The effect on the players has become palpable, and now they — by way of the more vocal players, like Chris Archer — are letting us know how the lack of fans impacts the collective psyche of the team. If we fans want to see a diminished presence from the visiting team’s fan base, then it is up to all of us to purchase those tickets and plant our bottoms into those seats first and foremost.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (3-6, 4.25 ERA, 4.36 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jon Lester (11-7, 4.30 ERA, 4.05 FIP).

Snell allowed just a run on two hits against the Yankees on Tuesday, yet he walked away with a no decision. The southpaw threw 51/83 pitches for strikes, although he didn’t stick around long enough to benefit from Adeiny Hechavarria’s game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning. He now is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 11 post-All-Star Game starts, and has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings — performing to a 2.73 ERA with a 28/8 K/BB over that 29-2/3 inning stretch. Snell faced the Cubs on July 5 but took a no-decision after tossing five scoreless frames.

Lester is no stranger to beginning games slowly. He threw 78 pitches over the first three innings against the Mets in his last start, yet needed just 36 over the final three innings. In spite of that, he’s won each of his last two outing, allowing just three runs over 12 total innings of work. Lester is 13-10 with a 4.22 ERA in 29 games against the Rays, including a five inning loss on July 4 when he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits including a homer. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (7-17, 2B, BB), Danny Espinosa (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, Adeiny Hechavarria (3-10, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (14-58, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB), Brad Miller (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/20/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza Jr. RF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Ramos C
Hechavarria SS
Puello DH
Miller 2B
Bourjos LF
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays added two players to the roster this afternoon. INF Daniel Robertson will rejoin the Rays, as will RHP Chih-Wei Hu. Additionally, Xavier Cedeno will be activated from the 60-day DL, after rehabbing with Durham. A corresponding move will need to be made to make room for Cedeno.

…Of Chris Archer, more Rays September call-ups, and hurricanes

By Leave a Comment

(Photo Credit: MLB.com)

Lots of Tampa Bay Rays relevant news on this Tuesday afternoon, ahead of tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins.

Chris Archer played catch this afternoon at Tropicana Field and said it went very well. The right-hander is still hopeful that he will be able to pitch in the weekend series against Boston depending on how he feels tomorrow, although it was announced that Austin Pruitt will start Friday’s contest. Last night the Rays received good news on the status of Archer, who was pulled from Saturday’s contest due to right lateral forearm tightness after throwing just eight pitches. Archer’s exam with team doctors showed no structural damage to his right arm.

In other injury news, Jake Faria (left abdominal strain) tossed a three inning simulated game at the Trop and told Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) that he felt really good about how he pitched and how he felt.

The team announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, promoting RHP Chaz Roe, LHP Jose Alvarado, and OF Mallex Smith. In order to clear room on the 40-man roster for Roe, the team recalled RHP Taylor Guerrieri then placed him on the 60-day DL.

Tampa Bay acquired Roe — who has pitched in a combined 93 big league games with the Diamondbacks, Yankees, Orioles and Braves —  from Atlanta on July 18 in exchange for cash considerations. During his time with Triple-A Durham, he performed to an 0-3 record but a 3.00 ERA over 21 innings, while striking out 35 of 88 batters (40%).

Roe said he was excited to get back to the Major Leagues after a hectic bout with things before his acquisition by the Rays.

Finally, the Rays met this afternoon to discuss the logistics related to Hurricane Irma. The plan over the short-term is to leave for Boston on Thursday, giving the teammates an extra day with their families for storm preparations. As for how it may effect the team on their pending home stand against the Yankees, that situation is fluid. The players and staff will pack for extra days just in case the series needs to be relocated to the Bronx, or another neutral site.

The New What Next: Rays vs White Sox — a series preview

By Leave a Comment

The Rays have gone 4-2 thus far on their nine-game road trip. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays return to action Friday night in Chicago, where they’ll square off with the White Sox in a three-game weekend series. The Rays are coming off a pair of mid-western series wins against the Cardinals and Royals (respectively), while the White Sox dropped three straight to the Minnesota Twins.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay just took two of three games from the Royals, after taking two of three in St Louis. They are now 7-3 over their last 10 games, while averaging 5.22 runs per game over that stretch. They still have their sights set firmly on a Wildcard berth, having moved to within 3-1/2 games of Minnesota for the last playoff spot, as well as four games behind the slumping Yankees, who will be taking on the Red Sox over the weekend.

The Rays have a excellent shot at closing that gap even more this weekend, not to mention a chance to move above the .500 mark for the first time since August 11. And while their offense has been an issue at times for Tampa Bay, they’ll be taking on a far weaker White Sox team. Dare I say they could primed to make a run* at things on the south side of the windy city?

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (2-6, 4.29 ERA, 4.44 FIP), Chris Archer (9-7, 3.66 ERA, 3.17 FIP), and Matt Andriese (5-1, 3.54 ERA, 4.64 FIP). Rick Renteria will counter with Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 6.97 ERA, 6.61 FIP), Carlos Rodon (2-5, 4.27 ERA, 4.74 FIP), and Lucas Giolito (1-1, 2.77 ERA, 6.05 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell is coming off one of his best outings of the season, as he allowed just two runs on four hits over seven innings. He struck out seven. The southpaw has thrown six or more innings in four consecutive starts, and though his season numbers are still unsightly, Snell appears to have figured some things out in the second half, performing to a 3.66 ERA/3.69 FIP.

Lopez had been on the disabled list with a back strain since mid-August. Prior to the injury, Lopez made two starts but allowed eight runs on nine hits over 10-1/3 innings. The 23 year-old right-hander — who this season has relied upon a 95mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, and a whiffy 85mph changeup, while also mixing in an 81mph 12-6 curveball with little depth — has never faced the Rays.

Archer limited the Cardinals to one run on five hits over seven innings on Sunday. The only blemish on the right-hander’s ledger was a seventh-inning home run by Kolten Wong. Part of his recent spate of dominance has to do with the fact that Archer is walking fewer batters and striking more of them out, posting a 69/9 K/BB in his last 50-1/3 innings of work over his past seven starts. He is 2-0, but with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) on the south side of Chicago, and 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.

Rodon gave up five runs on seven hits over five innings against Detroit in his last turn, his shortest start since July 25. The southpaw held the Tigers scoreless over the first two frames before allowing all five of his runs over the next two, leading to his fifth loss of the season. The outing snapped a string of five consecutive starts in which he had allowed two earned runs or fewer, although it’s difficult for him to pick up any wins with the White Sox offense. This season he has relied upon a whiffy 94mph four-seam fastball, a hard 85 mph slider, and a 93mph sinker, while also mixing in an 83mph changeup with natural sinking action. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-3, 2B, HR, RBI)

Andriese pitched the final three innings of the Rays’ win over the Royals on Monday to earn a save. He will be making his first start since June 10. Andriese is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one start (5-2/3 IP) against the White Sox.

Giolito tossed a gem in his second start with the south siders, throwing seven scoreless innings and allowing just three hits in a win over Detroit. Despite recording 12 swinging strikes, he collected just four strikeouts. Beware of the luck dragons! Over his two starts Giolito has performed to a .171 BABIP with a 100% LOB, but a 6.05 FIP. That is, he has been incredibly lucky. The righty has relied primarily upon a 93mph four-seam fastball this season, while also mixing in a 79mph 12-6 curveball, an 82mph cut-action changeup, a whiffy 92mph sinker, and an 85mph slider.

*  … Cough, sweep them.

Noteworthiness

— Alright kiddos, it’s make or break time!

— Something to ponder: Over the second half, the Rays bullpen has performed to a 3.27 ERA/4.10 FIP over 140-1/3 combined innings. The White Sox? 5.28 ERA/5.88 FIP over 150 innings. If Tampa Bay cannot feast on Chicago’s starters, there’s a fairly good chance the team will have a shot of breaking things open against the ‘pen. #SweepThem

— Reinforcements are on the way. Tampa Bay’s initial call-ups, with rosters expanding on Friday, are slated to be LHP Adam Kolarek and RHP Ryne Stanek, and C Curt Casali.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the call-ups, as well as the prospective additions expected later in the month.

Kolarek made his big-league debut, at age 28, in late June and stuck around for a month, posting a 5.87 ERA in 11 games. He has been impressive at Triple-A Durham, with a 1.65 ERA in 41 games. Adding Kolarek gives the Rays a second lefty in their bullpen and more freedom in how they use top option Dan Jennings.

Stanek, the hard-throwing, long-haired 2013 first-round pick, made his debut this season and in two stints with the Rays posted a 6.39 ERA over 13 games. But he has been dominant at Durham, allowing two earned runs in his past 23 outings and a 1.21 ERA overall with eight saves in 37 games. He gives the Rays a high-velocity option with the ability to work multiple innings if needed.

Casali played parts of 2014-16 with the Rays, hitting a combined .195 with 18 homers and a .658 OPS. He has spent all 2017 with Durham, hitting .263 with five homers, 48 RBIs and a .698 OPS in 85 games. He isn’t likely to get much playing time but gives manager Kevin Cash more freedom to pinch-hit or pinch-run for the other catchers.

Additional callups are expected later in the month, as Durham wraps regular season play Monday then advances to the playoffs. OF Mallex Smith, INFs Trevor Plouffe and Daniel Robertson and additional pitchers, such as LHP Jose Alvaradoand RHPs Diego Castillo, Jaime Schultz and Chase Whitley, seem likely candidates.

— The Rays continued their waiver wire talks into Thursday night, but they did not make any waiver claim trades — either to add to or subtract from the roster — in advance of the midnight deadline for postseason eligibility.

LBWMF: Rays beat Royals, 5-3, and win third consecutive series

By Leave a Comment

Meatloaf at Kauffman Stadium, for the Rays’ first series win in Kansas City since July 2009. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays took two multi-run leads in Kansas City on Wednesday, then held on to beat the Royals, 5-3, for their first series win at Kauffman Stadium since 2009. The Rays ended the night one game under .500 (67-68) and having won both series on their current road trip, thus remaining relevant in the Wildcard chase with 27 left to play. They now are 15-3 in series wins when they’ve won the first game of a series (83.3% winning percentage).

Tampa Bay took a 3-0 lead in the third against Jason Vargas, a pitcher that’s had his way with the Rays in recent years. Adeiny Hechavarria got the rally started with a solo-homer to left-center field with one out.

It was Hechavarria’s fourth homer with the Rays and fifth overall.

Peter Bourjos followed by working a free pass, then went to third on Kevin Kiermaier’s single to center. Following suit, Steven Souza Jr. also singled up the middle — making it a two-run game — with the Outlaw moving up to third. Evan Longoria capped the scoring with his MLB leading 11th sacrifice fly.

Yet Kansas City immediately answered against Jake Odorizzi, who had been spotty all night. Odorizzi started the inning with a walk to the number eight hitter, Cheslor Cuthbert, before Alcides Escobar reached on a beautifully placed bunt single on the left side of the infield. Two pitches later, Odorizzi did what he has done all season — give up a home run, this time to Whit Merrifield, tying the game.

Although he would ultimately leave the game early, Odorizzi tightened up and retired six of the next seven batters.

Tampa Bay moved back in front in the fifth inning on homers by Souza (No. 29) and Logan Morrison (No. 33), putting the Rays ahead 5-3.

Morrison now has four homers in as many games.

Odorizzi was relieved of his start in the sixth inning after he allowed a leadoff single to Melky Cabrera — the absolute right call by Kevin Cash, who managed the game as though it was critical to the Rays short-term future … which it was. Odo was credited with the win, his first since July, after he allowed four hits and three walks over five plus innings. The right-hander fanned three.

From there the A bullpen took control.

Steve Cishek entered the game and retired the next three batters, two by strikeout, to end the frame. Cishek took the mound the following inning and pitched a perfect seventh. The right-hander now has a sub 1.15 ERA since May, a sub 2.00 ERA overall, and hasn’t allowed an earned run since the late July acquisition which sent Erasmo Ramirez to Seattle.

Cishek said the secret to his success is keeping it simple:

Tommy Hunter took over in the eighth and notched a perfect eight pitch frame, all on three ground outs.

Finally, Alex Colome worked around a one-out single in the ninth inning and fanned the side for his 40th save. El Caballo became the sixth player in franchise history to reach that milestone in a single season.

After an off-day Thursday, the Rays will head to the south side of Chicago for a three-game series against the basement dwelling White Sox. The ball club maintains they are just a hot streak away from taking over the reins in the Wildcard race … and in an ideal world, the previous series win against the Royals should be a springboard for that. However, the question begs: Do the Rays become ‘sellers’ at the waiver wire deadline at midnight Thursday?

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about that very subject on the Heater blog, saying:

Meanwhile, Rays officials may not wait, deciding — and, crazy as it sounds, maybe even factoring in Wednesday’s result as a tipping point — whether to sell off any of the pending free agents who were either claimed on waivers this week or, less likely, cleared waivers, in advance of tonight’s midnight deadline for postseason eligibility.

… Cobb is in his own category, given his importance to the team, and any deal would not only be accompanied by a white flag of surrender but also prompt a major mutiny in the clubhouse.

Beyond Cobb, first baseman/DH Lucas Duda and reliever Steve Cishek would present the two most interesting decisions for the Rays from a group that also includes relievers Tommy Hunter and Sergio Romo, first baseman Logan Morrison and outfielder Peter Bourjos.

With all this in mind, we could see a team depleted of talent when it starts the series Friday in the Windy City, or one with a bolstered roster because of September call-ups and/or waiver wire acquisitions.