I’ll concede the point, Matt Moore is signing an autograph, not writing for X-Rays Spex. However, the challenge is yours to find a photograph of a baseball player writing for a blog. Here’s a hint, it’s not easy.
We’re looking for (semi) competent writers to contribute to X-Rays Spex! While X-Rays Spex is far from professional, the few of us who curate blog are passionate about the Tampa Bay Rays — the thing that drives us to continue doing what we do. In order for X-Rays Spex to regularly crank out a full spectrum of pieces on your favorite players and team, we need your help.
Can you:
Analyze statistics, both traditional and advanced?
Write about an upcoming series?
Recap a previous game?
Vent when something ridiculous happens — both on and off the field?
Or, maybe you have something unique to bring to the table.
It goes without saying, sarcasm is a welcome quality in our prospective writers.
If you can do any of the above, give us a shout! In short, we’re looking for writers with a focus on the Rays, though that creative focus is completely up to you!
Think you’ve got what it takes? Send a sample of your writing to: belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com
While the trade rumors surrounding Ben Zobrist continue to mount, multiplied in kind are the questions of whether Matt Silverman would attempt to move Zobrist before the start of the season, and who the Rays would get in return if he was dealt. Personally, I don’t see the team moving Zobrist until the Rays are firmly out of contention.
For one thing, as Marc Topkin noted on December 20, it seems to make more sense to at least start the season with free-agent-to-be INF/OF Ben Zobrist, but there may be a scenario in which he gets moved before that if the Rays are overwhelmed by an offer. Furthermore, Topkin also noted in the same article, without Myers (and Matt Joyce), it sure seems the Rays need more offense, someone else to try to protect Evan Longoria. That is, it wouldn’t be a prudent idea for Silverman to trade Zobrist — who’s projected (per Steamer) to slash .262 BA/.349 OBP/.400 SLG/.749 OPS/.333 wOBA/.138 ISO in 2015, with 57 RBI and 119 wRC — to start the season.
Nevertheless, the folks at Dock of the Rays blog recently put together a piece titled Irresponsibly Speculating on the Return From a Hypothetical Ben Zobrist Trade. Jason Hanselman’s reason for writing the piece in the first place, to determine the haul the Rays could get in return for Zobrist — a player who is projected to be worth around $25M in surplus value for 2015. What’s more, Hanselman ranked the likelihood of a deal being made (and with whom) from least to most likely:
Using the JAVIER* prospect system, Hanselman concludes that the Cubs would be the best trading partner with the Rays, writing,
Cubs have been busy turning an also-ran into a real competitor, but could probably use an upgrade in LF over Chris Coghlan. Additionally, Ben gives flexibility in the event that Baez isn’t working out at 2B or Soler gets hurt again out in RF and obviously there’s the Maddon connection. Soft skills are often poo-poo’d by me and other analysts, but Ben would certainly be able to provide a veteran perspective to a locker room that is going to be big on talent, but short on emotional stability. The Cubs are another team that could pretty easily extend Ben and I think he would be amenable to that with his former manager calling the shots.
You’re looking at are the positions, JAVIER scores, and JAVIER categories for each of the top prospects in the best farm system in the game.
Good lawds. There’s a reason that Joltin’ Joe wanted to go play with the kids. Bryant is one of the most highly regarded prospects of all time, no hyperbole, by JAVIER. Soler and Russell are equally untouchable, but then we start to get into the part of the system that features good prospects that may have more value to the Cubs as a trade chip due to roster constraints. Edwards looks like a nice little arm and Schwarber is going to be a menace even though he’s unlikely to stay at catcher. Torres could be an upside play that’s pretty far away. Whatever your appetite the Cubs have a cook in the kitchen ready to deliver sweet morsels and it doesn’t stop there as they also have some good options that have lost their prospect status. Baez probably isn’t going anywhere, but if the Cubs sign another high profile pitcher they may look to sell a touch high on Hendricks. Heck, even Hector Rondon could have a role here as another elite power arm to pair with Jake & the Box, though I’d want something like Caratini or Torres thrown into that deal, as well. The Cubs look like a really strong fit for both teams.
If anything, Hanselman’s piece is interesting. Andrew Friedman set the high water mark for Zobrist with his 2015 Winter Meetings moves — it’s going to cost a prospective team A LOT in order to acquire the Rays’ All-Star utility player. If Silverman is sincere in his assessment, that the Rays can contend with their current roster, they will either need to sit on Zobrist for the time being, or deal him for a load of +WAR players — a couple whom would need to be big league ready.
Noteworthiness:
Zach’s Links of MLB Trade Rumors writes,
The Indians would like to trade Nick Swisher after acquiring Brandon Moss from Oakland and the Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Brewers, and Cubs could all be possible trade partners. Swisher is owed about $30MM on his deal, however, so Cleveland might have to foot some of the bill.
One National League GM told Cafardo (Nick, Boston Globe) that he inquired about Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and was rebuffed. The Rays have Longoria under contract at $11MM this year and $11.5MM next year before his extension kicks in in 2017, running through 2023.
Brandon Gomes has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham. He will be invited to Major League Spring Training.
*The basic idea is that you can look at a couple of key indicators like strikeouts or walks or speed score for batters and pitchers and using these things you can create a pool of similar players. By then looking at how these similar players performed you can get an idea of the range and the average expected performance of the player. The Javier column shows each players Javier score which is basically a totaling of z-scores. He does a neat little trick by punishing players the further they are from the show, which means that you should also pay attention to the J Group column which shows a few different buckets of where the player Javier score falls BEFORE adjusting for the level the player is at.
There is a scary truth related to our Rays Stadium Stalemate that we aren’t discussing. Below, Brett Morgan discusses six things that local leaders and media aren’t talking about.
In my opinion, Brett Morgan needs no introduction. His group (Top Off The Trop) and X-Rays Spex have worked with one another on a few different occasions, and I have an immense amount of respect for what he’s done to get people excited about our beloved Rays. Neverthless, a brief introduction may be in order. Morgan is a St. Petersburg resident, Social Media enthusiast and Rays Season Ticket holder. He is the platform manager for the Morgan Auto Group that operates car dealerships in Pasco, Hillsborough, Alachua, Marion and Sarasota Counties. Around The Trop he is known as “Top Off The Trop” guy, founding an annual movement that works with Small and Medium Bay Area businesses to drive attendance at Tropicana Field. Since returning to Florida after college in 2004 Brett is proud to say he’s seen a Game 7 ALCS game in St. Petersburg, a World Series opener and of course the greatest game ever, “Game 162.”
Brett penned the piece below. And while I may not agree with everything he wrote, I believe there is one thing lacking in the ongoing Stadium Saga: an open discourse based on something more than emotions. Brett is doing his part to spark an open debate, and I applaud him for that.
I still believe the Rays and the City of St. Petersburg will come to an agreement that allows the Rays stadium search to consider sites in Tampa. I also think that this is a positive, for no other reason than it is what the Rays want and it pushes forward the conversation of a new stadium during a time of sub-par Tropicana Field attendance.
Regardless of what side of the fence you sit on I am convinced that there are certain elements of this conversation being ignored by fans, area leaders and the media.
1) Uncertainty is Bad Business.
No matter if we’re talking the stock market or our own lives, uncertainty creates stress and impedes growth. This will be true for the Tampa Bay Rays. It will become tougher to retain the right personnel, attract new fans and grow the Rays brand in our region as uncertainty continues. Politically we seem very comfortable wallowing in some kind of stadium purgatory. As this saga drags on markets like Charlotte, Montreal, Nashville, Indianapolis and Las Vegas will continue to call us clouded and undeserving. Are they wrong?
2) St. Petersburg has failed at Major League Baseball.
It is time for everyone to admit that baseball, on the basis of attendance, has failed (in its current existence) in St. Petersburg. We can talk of great TV ratings and speculate on the Rays bottom line but I promise you outside of Tampa Bay no one is listening. A profitable team does not trump our current attendance situation at the Trop.
3) Tampa residents will now be LESS LIKELY to attend Rays Games.
The cat is out of the bag. Whether you like it or not St. Pete and Pinellas residents (I am one) the team will be allowed to look at Tampa eventually because it is what they want to do. My fear all along is that Tampa residents will now sit on the sideline waiting for the Rays to waltz across the bridge. They will not increase their support of the franchise in the years to come.
4) The MoU that the St. Petersburg City Council will eventually approve won’t be a whole lot different than the deal voted down on December 18th.
I applaud Mayor Kriseman for having the foresight to recognize two things: One is that the Rays current lease is an impediment to the future of baseball in Tampa Bay. Did majority owner Stu Sternberg know of the 2027 lease when he bought the team? Of course he did. Well then how is that our problem? Simply put the Rays presumed a winning product would create a winning atmosphere inside of the Trop and it hasn’t.
Ultimately the Rays might flex on the condition of profit sharing for Trop redevelopment but I don’t see the compensation dollar value improving drastically here. Secondly the Mayor sees that without the crutch of “municipal stadium financing,” that the Rays need to move forward without being unreasonably “penalized” for a break of lease. If you disagree that the Rays will need to “win” here than you are simply hoping to remove one shackle from Raymond’s left leg only to peg another to his right.
5) Attendance is Going to Get Worse
Just watch. The team has lost marquee faces of the team (Joe Maddon, Andrew Friedman, Wil Myers, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Joyce to name a few) and while change can be good we are going through a transition that will ultimately hurt “butts in seats.” Add to that the prospects of a losing record and now what does attendance look like going into Fall 2015? The continued uncertainty of our Stadium Saga will magnify these negatives.
6) The Stalemate has provided an opportunity for some to confuse the issue at hand.
One local leader (who personally I have a great deal of respect for) tweeted just moments after the December 18th vote: “City Council votes unanimously to study building a new stadium for the Rays in St Petersburg. Rejects the concept to let them look in Tampa.” While this tweet isn’t untrue it is certainly misguided. The issue at hand is still whether or not the Rays should be able to explore sites in Hillsborough County. What I see for many, is they are using this opportunity to return to a “baseball will exist only in St. Pete” agenda. Instead of focusing on the quality of baseball’s life in St. Pete it would seem to be that local leaders are only focused on the quantity (years potentially remaining). In my opinion this is both shortsighted and dangerous.
On a related side note…
Following the failed vote between the Tampa Bay Rays and the City of St. Petersburg, I wrote a piece meant to be an open letter to all of the parties involved in the Stadium Saga. I followed by personally writing to the team, St. Petersburg City Council, and Mayor Kriseman. Unsurprisingly, I haven’t received a response from either the Rays or Mayor Kriseman. I did, however, receive a response from council member Amy Foster, who gave me expressed permission to re-post it in its entirety. Her response follows.
It is incredibly important to get a feel for other’s opinions on this issue — especially those in the trenches. Sadly the local media has focused much of its energy on covering the city of Tampa and Rays’ point of view, only. Errant or not, here is my attempt to air the voices of others involved.
Thank you for writing and sharing your input.
From the beginning of the announcement of this deal, I have approached it with an open mind and a collaborative spirit. I place a high value on the importance of compromise and “getting to the yes.” With that said, I was elected to represent and protect the interests of our citizens. Citizen input was evenly divided on this issue but one commonality was clear-everyone hopes the Rays stay and play ball in St. Petersburg for many years to come.
At the end of the day, my decision was based on 3 major factors:
The lack of solid commitment to the region.
Their stance that while they would like to break the use agreement to shop around they would expect the city to abide by the use agreement. Let’s be clear- our citizens invested almost 400 million dollars in this stadium and team. Everyone, including myself, is excited about the possibility of redeveloping 85 acres of prime real estate. But you don’t get to take the team and then fill your pocket on the way out the door with proceeds from redeveloping the site.
Lastly, I asked them to share with our citizens why this was a good deal for them and the city of St. Petersburg. The answer was why this is good for Major League Baseball.
You elected me to make tough decisions. You elected me to protect your interests and assets. Matt Silverman has signaled that talks are gaining positive momentum and will continue so it looks like there was room for negotiation after all. I stand firm in my decision and look forward to finding a win-win solution for all involved in the coming months.
Rene Rivera throws against the Cleveland Indians in a game at Progressive Field. (Photo courtesy of David Richard/USA Today Sports)
I’ll admit it, my first reaction when yesterday’s mega deal was preliminary announced — a deal which sent catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Padres in return for a no-named, journeyman catcher named Rene Rivera — was a bit boisterous and, well…reactionary. It went something like this, ahem, “WHAT THE FUCK?!” After all, Hanigan was the presumed catcher of the future, and the Rays dealt him to the Padres.
Hanigan was supposed to be the savior of sorts. He is intelligent, frames pitches well, boasts a career .319 OBP, and works with pitching staffs better than most. Moreover, the Rays were in need of a backup catcher, and my initial gut reaction was that Rivera was nothing more than a replacement level catcher — that is, he would have been the backup catcher to Hanigan. In the words of Dillinger Four, Sell the House Sell the Car Sell the Kids Find Someone Else Forget It I’m Never Coming Back Forget It!
But at some point between 8:30 Wednesday night and the moment I started to pen this piece, I had a change of heart. A question I dared ask myself, what if this portion of the trade was positive? I fully acknowledge that I had a change of heart, partly because of what I’ve read about Rivera — despite the fact that he’s now with his seventh organization in 11 years, Rivera is a solid backstop.
Let’s expand on that premise.
Money Matters
The Rays were able to wipe $8M off the books in the trade — Hanigan was set to earn $3.5M in 2015 and $3.7M 2016, and his contract also boasted an $800K buyout on his $3.75M option for 2017. While the average savings of $3.65M per year isn’t a terribly high (relatively speaking, of course), for a small market team like the Rays, it’s an awful lot of money to be spending on Hanigan who was injured for much of last season. On the other hand, Rivera is projected to make $5.85M over the same span — $1.3M in 2015, and a projected $1.95 M in 2016 and $2.6M in 2017* — 1/4 – 1/3 less than Hanigan overall.
Defensive Stuffs
The ability to frame pitches is a skill the Tampa Bay Rays find incredibly important. Both Jose Molina and Ryan Hanigan were known for their ability to frame pitches, and Rivera is pretty impressive in his own right. Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) wrote about Rivera’s framing skills at length, noting,
By the Baseball Prospectus numbers, Molina has been worth 31.6 framing runs per 7000 chances (roughly what a full season of playing time would look like) over the course of his career, while Hanigan has been worth 16.3 runs per 7000, and Rivera 18.0 runs per 7000.
Recently, though, Hanigan’s framing numbers have declined, perhaps due to injury or age, while Rivera has improved on a mediocre 2011, his only other year in the books. Last season specifically, Hanigan produced at a rate of 12.7 runs per 7000, while Rivera bought his pitchers 22.1 runs per 7000. Rivera was simply better.
StatCorner also boasts some bang-up numbers. At 1.75 stolen strikes per game, Rivera is the fourth best framer in baseball — just behind Christian Vazquez (1.80 per game), former Ray Jose Molina (1.81 per game), and Hank Conger (2.21 per game).
Back in May, Jeff Sullivan noticed that the Padres — then as now dawdling along, winning 45 percent of their games — were leading the league in “stolen” strikes, or pitches that PITCHf/x deemed out of the zone but were called strikes anyway. Writing for Fox Sports, Sullivan showed that the Padres had “stolen” a net of 52 extra strikes through the first month and a day of the season, a comfortable margin ahead of Jonathan Lucroy and the second-place Milwaukee Brewers (then with 47), considerably ahead of the Jose Molina/Ryan Hanigan duo of the Tampa Bay Rays (then with 22), and so far ahead of the last-place Minnesota Twins (who had “lost” 44 strikes at that point) that they couldn’t be seen around the earth’s curvature. Writing for FanGraphs later that same month, Sullivan noticed that, of all the pitchers in baseball, Padres starter Andrew Cashner was experiencing the biggest jump in stolen strikes from 2013 to 2014.
Cashner’s jump can be directly attributed to Rivera.
Here’s a small sampling of Rivera earning his pitchers 0-1 counts, thanks to his ability to frame pitches that are low in the zone:
[youtube_sc url=”http://youtu.be/8jHVlJ8sJPo”]
While the ability to frame a pitch is important, there are other skills that are equally as important, like controlling the running game. Rivera holds a career 39% caught stealing percentage, gunning down 36% of would be base stealers in 2014. Juxtapose that with Hanigan who has a career 38% caught sealing percentage (gunning down 21% in 2014), and Molina who holds a career 37% caught stealing percentage (27% in 2014).
Another facet of Rivera’s game is his ability to block pitches in the dirt; a pretty crucial facet of the game when you take into consideration that Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Drew Smyly like to entice whiffs by throwing filthy breaking pitches in the dirt. A quick question — if you were on the hill, would you feel comfortable enough to throw a breaking in the dirt with Molina behind the plate?
Hanigan was an excellent pitch blocker who saved an average of about three runs per season. On the other hand, Molina was abysmal, costing the Rays an average of six runs per season. The pitch f/x data finds Rivera nestled between the two.
The Offensive End of Things
Rene Rivera, Ryan Hanigan, and Jose Molina’s career offensive numbers. (Source: FanGraphs)Rene Rivera, Ryan Hanigan, and Jose Molina’s 2015 offensive projections. (Source: FanGraphs)
Offensively speaking, Ryan Hanigan has been pretty good over his career — at least for a catcher. He’s posted a pretty good BB%/K% (11.9% vs 10.7%), and he owns a career .353 OBP. He knows the zone and works good at-bats.
Need I even bring up Molina’s offensive prowess?
Rene Rivera has been less successful at the plate which can be partially explained by his infrequent number of plate appearances until last season, when he came to the plate 329 times in 103 games. Over the span of his career Rivera’s walked 6.1% of the time while striking out in 24.5% of the time, culling together an ugly .279 OBP along the way.
However, what Rivera lacks in consistent at-bats, he makes up for in the power department — something neither Hanigan nor Molina can blow their horns about. Don’t get me wrong, Rivera is no Puig — his .130 ISO is merely average. However, when you compare his ISO to that of Hanigan (.085) and Molina (.094), one thing becomes abundantly clear: Rivera has a measured amount of pop. What’s more, Steamer projects that both Rivera and Hanigan will produce similarly in 2015 in weighted runs created (90 wRC for Rivera, 85 wRC for Hanigan) and overall offensive output.
In conclusion, there is no doubt that Ryan Hanigan is a quality catcher who would be an asset to any team. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Rene Rivera is also a solid catcher. While the 34 year-old, injury prone Hanigan could be entering the twilight of his career, Rivera is trending upward and has a decent chance of bolstering the Rays roster over the next couple years — making less money and carrying less risk all-the-while.
*Based off the 40/60/80 model; those figures may or may not be wholly accurate
Noteworthiness:
“It seems to make more sense to at least start the season with free-agent-to-be INF/OF Ben Zobrist, but there may be a scenario in which he gets moved before that if the Rays are overwhelmed by an offer,” writes Marc Topkin.
Topkin went on, “Without Myers (and Matt Joyce), it sure seems the Rays need more offense, someone else to try to protect Evan Longoria. Looking over what Silverman acknowledged was a dwindling free-agent market, options could include Ryan Ludwick, Colby Rasmus, Ichiro Suzuki, Chris Denorfia, and ex-Rays Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young. Another scenario is to wait and see which team blinks first and eats almost all the bad-contract money on a distressed veteran such as Ryan Howard, ex-Ray B.J. Upton or, dare we say it, Alex Rodriguez.”
Former third-base coach Tom Foley has been named as the Rays new bench coach, while former Durham Bulls skipper Charlie Montoyo will take over his spot, and Rocco Baldelli will take over for George Hendrick — who accepted a position with the Rays as Special Advisor, Baseball Operations — as the first-base coach.
Pitching coach Jim Hickey, hitting coach Derek Shelton, bullpen coach Stan Boroski, and major league coach Jamie Nelson will all return under the new regime.
