After dropping a second consecutive series, and five games overall, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get off the schneid ahead of the All-Star Break, when they welcome Atlanta into the Trop for a three-game series starting Friday. Atlanta took two of three from the Guardians this week.

At 57-33, the Rays enter play 4.0 games up on the second-place Orioles in the division. Atlanta is leading their respective division at 58-28 — 8.5 games up on the second-place Marlins.

It has been a no-good, very bad week for the Rays, who couldn’t get much to anything started against the Phillies. Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay has slashed an ice-cold .215 BA/.269 OBP/.402 SLG/.671 OPS line, with a subpar 87 wRC+ and a -5.6 wRAA. Granted they’ve hit into some bad luck over that stretch, their .257 BABIP speaks to that, although they’ve seen their K% jump to 27.3% and their BB% fall to 7.0%. In short, when they’ve gotten on base, they haven’t been able to get them over or get them home.

Juxtapose that with Atlanta, who is playing like the Rays at the start of the season. Over the last week, Atlanta has been twice as good as Tampa Bay as it relates to wRC+ (169). They’ve slashed a healthy .319 BA/.368 OBP/.657 SLG/1.025 OPS line, with an obscene .338 ISO, and a 21.3 wRAA. Great googly-moogly!

The Rays enter play with an overall 3.72 ERA and 4.03 FIP (3.59 ERA and 3.65 FIP for the starters, 3.86 ERA, and 4.47 FIP for the relievers). Over the last week, Tampa Bay maintains an uncharacteristic 5.33 ERA and 4.01 FIP (6.00 ERA and 3.21 FIP for the starters, 4.80 ERA and 4.66 FIP for the relievers) which, clearly, shows that they could definitely use the All-Star Break, like, a week ago.

Meanwhile, Atlanta maintains an overall 3.63 ERA and 3.92 FIP (3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP for the starters, 3.45 ERA, and 3.61 FIP for the relievers). Their numbers are actually better over the last week, with Atlanta’s hurlers putting up a combined 2.14 ERA and a 3.36 FIP (2.60 ERA and a 3.61 FIP for the starters, and a 1.35 ERA and a 2.94 FIP for the relievers).

It will be a tough slog for the Rays, who went 2-1 against Atlanta in 2021, with a +6 run differential.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50 ERA, 3.68 FIP), Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27 ERA, 3.86 FIP), and Zach Eflin (9-4, 3.24 ERA, 3.09 FIP). Brian Snitker will counter with friend of the Rays Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA, 3.75 FIP), Spencer “Quadzilla” Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA, 2.98 FIP), and Bryce Elder (7-1, 2.45 ERA, 3.80 FIP).

Tyler Glasnow allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings Saturday versus the Mariners. This was his second-longest outing of the season, and Glasnow has racked up double-digit punchies in each of his last two turns. Glasnow’s posted a strong 3.73 K/BB over 36 innings so far, but his 4.50 ERA (belied by a 3.68 FIP, so take his ERA with a grain of salt) and 1.33 WHIP remain relatively pedestrian.

Charlie Morton allowed four hits and a walk over 5.2 scoreless frames on Saturday. He struck out five. The veteran right-hander has won three consecutive starts despite some inefficiency on his part, as he’s completed six innings just once in his last eight outings — posting a 4.36 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 2.55 K/BB through 43.1 innings over that stretch. Y’all know what to expect out of Uncle Charlie, an 82 mph sweeping knuckle curve and a 95 mph heavy sinking fourseam fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph changeup that has an obvious arm-side fade, and a 95 mph two-seamer/sinker that has an obvious tail. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (1-3), Taylor Walls (1-2, BB)

Taj Bradley surrendered five runs on nine hits and a walk over 3.1 innings against Seattle on Sunday. After serving up a solo homer to Eugenio Suarez in the second inning, Bradley coughed up four more runs in the third inning … although that followed an awful, non-obstruction call by the umpires after Ty France plowed into Isaac Paredes as he attempted to field a grounder. That play completely changed the feel of the inning. Make note of Bradley’s .533 BABIP over the last seven days, making the right-hander a bad-luck candidate. At any rate, it seemed like Bradley was settling in at the big-league level with a 3.28 ERA over a five-start stretch, but he’s since been tagged with 11 earned runs over two outings. His season ERA has jumped to 5.11, although that’s belied by a significantly better 3.86 FIP. His 4.65 K/BB through 56.1 innings still looks impressive.

Spencer Strider allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk over 6.2 innings against the Marlins. He fanned nine batters across 6.2 frames. The 24-year-old has been MLB’s premier strikeout pitcher, leading the league with 155 punchouts and a 14.2 K/9; racking up eight or more punchies in 14 of his 17 starts. After enduring a rough patch in early June, during which he gave up 13 runs over two appearances (nine innings), Strider has bounced back with just four earned runs across his last three turns (19.2 innings) to bring his ERA to 3.66 on the season, with a 2.98 FIP. Strider relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph fourseam fastball and an 86 mph swing-and-miss slider that has two-plane movement, while also mixing in an 87 mph worm-killer changeup.

Zach Eflin allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings against the Phillies. He struck out nine and threw 102 pitches (72 strikes, 71% strike rate). Eflin logged his fourth consecutive quality start while also striking out seven or more batters for the third straight time. The start continued what could be a career year for Eflin, as the 29-year-old boasts what would be his best ERA (3.24), FIP (3.10), BB/9 (1.39), and HR/9 (0.9) of his big-league career, while also ranking third in MLB in K/BB (6.67) this season.

Bryce Elder allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out one batter over 6.2 innings against the Guardians on Monday. Elder retired the side in order in just one of the innings during which he pitched, but the Guardians failed to score through six frames. They finally broke through with a pair of runs in the seventh, which ended his outing after 92 pitches. Nevertheless, Elder pitched well enough to notch his fourth straight quality start. He’s posted an uninspiring 1.88 K/BB over 25.2 innings during that stretch but has still managed an excellent 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Elder relies primarily on a 90 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action and an 83 mph 12-6 slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, and a 91 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action.

The Music That Influenced This Preview

Longings are a dark post-punk band from all over the place. They throw in a few dashes of Meatwave weirdness with a heaping helping of Signal Lost anarcho-punk. Dreams In Red flat-out rules.