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Charlie Morton signs with Atlanta, Rays are open to the idea of trading Blake Snell

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I, too, am teary-eyed. Thanks for everything, Charlie.

A day after the Tampa Bay Rays made waves by informing other teams they are open to the idea of trading left-hander Blake Snell (more on that below), the team was dealt a major blow when Atlanta announced it inked a one-year, $15-million deal with right-hander Charlie Morton. Mark Feinsand (MLB.com) reported that Tampa Bay was the other finalist in Morton’s market.

The loss of Morton stings, especially given that his $15-million contract with Atlanta matches the sum for which the Rays could’ve retained him had they exercised his club option for the 2021 season. It would appear that Tampa Bay had hoped to keep the right-hander at a lesser rate for the upcoming season — MLB Trade Rumors projected Morton to receive an $8-million, one-year contract, albeit with the Mets. Morton now returns to the franchise that originally drafted him back in 2002.

The 37-year-old Morton battled shoulder fatigue and was limited to nine starts and 38 innings in 2020 while pitching to a 4.74 ERA. Yet, after his stint on the Injured List, he returned with improved velocity and a 3.72 ERA across his seven remaining regular-season starts, then went on to post a 2.70 ERA through 20 postseason innings. More than that, however, Morton was a leader in the Rays clubhouse, especially during the Covid-19 shortened season.

The question begs: How will Erik Neander fill Morton’s shoes?

The free-agent market is one option, with Cory Kluber (MLBTR projected $12-Million), Robbie Ray (MLBTR projected $6-Million), and Adam Wainwright (MLBTR projected $6-Million) still available and relatively reasonably priced. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) also noted, the Rays could conceivably add multiple pitchers they believe they can tweak and take to another level. “That has been something they’ve done frequently with relievers, but it’s certainly not out of the question they could do so with potential starters.” Tampa Bay could also use some of their position player depth to help fill any gaps in the rotation. That would help add a veteran presence among the emerging arms that likely will be leaned upon, such as Shane McClanahan, Brent Honeywell, Joe Ryan, and Josh Fleming.

Solondz was also quick to remind that the Rays have bounced back from situations like this in the past.

Certainly, Erik Neander and the rest of the Rays front office have done the right things during their current climb. In the year they traded Evan Longoria and then Chris Archer in-season, Tampa Bay jumped to 90 victories.

The following year, the team unloaded popular Mallex Smith and CJ Cron after arguably his best season yet made the playoffs and won 96 games. Then the team traded Tommy Pham and Emilio Pagan and ended up in the World Series in 2020.

— Neil Solondz

In short, while this stings, it’s still just November. With the dearth of players on what appears to be a very slow free-agent market, the Rays do have a few things that work in their favor, such as a winning environment, the clubhouse culture, and the lack of state income tax in the State of Florida.

As I alluded to above, the Rays have made it known that they are open to the idea of trading left-hander Blake Snell. Pay attention to the phrasing though: “open to the idea of” is clearly not the same as “actively looking to trade him.”

Tampa Bay recently inked a five-year, $50-Million extension with Snell before the 2019 season. However, the budget-conscious ball-club could move on from the southpaw if it receives an enticing enough offer. Snell still has three years and $39-Million left on that deal and is set to earn $10.5-Million in 2021, $12.5-Million in 2022, and $16-Million in 2023.

Snell, after receiving word of the news, mentioned that he is committed to Tampa Bay and would love the opportunity to remain with the Rays.

The club has made similar moves in the past with the trades of David Price, James Shields, Chris Archer, Evan Longoria, and Tommy Pham. But more often than not, the Rays front office first makes a proclamation that it is open to the idea of trading a player in order to test the waters of the market, then waits until there are two years of team control remaining in his contract before they pull the trigger on a deal. And based on the kind of returns the Rays would expect if they were to trade Snell, don’t expect any team to emphatically say “yes” to the opportunity of looking like the next Pittsburgh Pirates.

At any rate, JT Morgan (DRaysBay) wrote an excellent piece on what the Rays could get in return from the three likeliest teams that could cobble together a deal for Snell: the Seattle Mariners, the Los Angeles Angels, and the San Diego Padres. You can read that article here.

For what it’s worth, given the amount of instability in Tampa Bay’s pitching corps, it would make more sense to hold onto Snell for the time being, which I’m sure Neander is well aware of. Then again, when have your feelings ever factored into the team’s financial decisions?

Rays opt not to exercise club options with Morton and Zunino, although both are open to returning

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The Tampa Bay Rays declined Charlie Morton’s option on Saturday.

On Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays chose not to exercise the club options on right-handed-hurler Charlie Morton and catcher Mike Zunino. Morton’s option was valued at $15-million, while Zunino stood to make $4.5-million if his option was to be exercised. Both are now free agents.

Charlie Morton “wasn’t surprised” that Tampa Bay declined to exercise the club option, given the lack of certainty in the midst of the pandemic, however, the team’s Senior VP/GM Erik Neander left the door open for Morton — as well as Zunino — to be part of the 2021 club. The veteran right-hander told the Tampa Bay Times that the team’s decision doesn’t mean they won’t try to work something out. 

If there’s mutual interest, the next step is gauging what that looks like.

— Charlie Morton

Neander noted the Rays’ desire to bring Morton back for a third season, and that they are looking for a “creative” way to keep him in the fold, including an incentive-laden deal. Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), Neander didn’t want to be too revealing about the conversation with Morton and said they didn’t get into too many specifics.

If he still wants to play next year and things line up in a way where it could be here and he sees it that way, we’re going to do everything we can to make that happen and to be as creative and supportive to his considerations and needs and what’s most important to him and his family as we can be.

…Charlie’s been very open about the uncertainty in his future and where he’s at. Frankly, felt it’s best to let him catch his breath, let him process, let him make some decisions with his family and to have those conversations but to give this a little more time to play out and see where things go. Would love nothing more than to have Charlie back and to have him part of our club next year and we’ll have a little more time to do that, it won’t be by way of picking up the option itself.

— Erik Neander

Morton is now one of the best pitchers on the free-agent market, although it is uncertain how much interest he will have exploring deals with other teams. He makes his home in Bradenton, a key point in his decision to sign with Tampa Bay after the 2018 season. During the postseason, Morton said he would discuss the possibility of retirement with his family if Tampa Bay declined his option, although if what is written above speaks to anything, he wants to continue his career with Tampa Bay.

During a Zoom call with the media, Neander also made mention of Morton and Zunino’s impact on the roster over the past two seasons in a number of ways.

He’s wonderful. And made sure he knew just how much we appreciated not only his on-field contributions the last two years, but everything he did to advance our group culturally, his leadership and guidance for pitchers, second to none.

…The intangible benefits of him for this staff, and the work he did behind the plate were a huge reason for our success as well, and another nice conversation and a door that’s going to stay open.

— Erik Neander

With a roster deadline looming to reinstate players currently on the 60-day Injured List, the Rays also made a variety of moves on Friday which will clear room on the 40-man. Tampa Bay lost catcher Michael Perez on waivers to the Pirates, as well as right-handers Andrew Kittredge and Chaz Roe, and catcher Kevan Smith — all of whom became free agents after clearing waivers.

It would appear the Rays are set to completely revamp their catching mix this offseason.

With the seven moves (including Aaron Loup becoming a free agent) the Rays now have 35 players on the 40-man roster.

Yet, as Solondz notes, Jalen Beeks, Yonny Chirinos, Colin Poche, and Cody Reed, all on the 60-day injured list, need to come off that list and be formally added on Sunday.

To that end, the Rays are expected to add prospects OF Josh Lowe and INF Taylor Walls to the 40-man roster by the November 20th deadline (so they won’t be exposed to the Rule 5 draft), so they will need to make another move in the near future to make room for both.

TNWN: Rays look to continue their winning ways on Friday, in Game Three

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Congratulations all around. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, 6-4, not to mention the previously scheduled off-day, the 2020 World Series will resume play on Friday, when the Tampa Bay Rays take the field as the home team.

Brandon Lowe was a big part of the Rays win in the second game of the set, hitting two home runs while driving in three runs. Lowe became the first player in World Series history with two opposite-field homers in a single game, and the fifth player to do it in a postseason contest. He is quietly and incrementally snapping out of his malaise, as the Rays versatile IN/OF is now 5-for-his-last-21 (.238 BA), with three home runs, five runs scored, and four RBI across his last five games. And while that .238 BA might not be eye-popping, consider that he entered play yesterday with a .107 postseason batting average and that three of his last five hits are of the XBH variety.

The Rays also scored four two-out runs on Wednesday, after having scored none on Tuesday.Note: I will update this piece as any pre-game notes are made available.

Tampa Bay likely will have all its key arms available out of the bullpen. Of note though, if the Rays fall behind, Kevin Cash could be more conservative with using which reliever and when, especially since Saturday is projected to be an opener(s) and bulk guy kind of game. If they are in the game though, expect Cash to lean heavily on Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo,

The New What Next

Charlie Morton (3-0, 0.57 ERA) will get the start on Friday, pitching opposite of Walker Buehler (1-0, 1.89 ERA).

Charlie Morton pushed in his best outing of the season, allowing just two hits across 5-2/3 efficient innings, while striking out six and walking one on 66 pitches (48 strikes, 73% strike rate, 15% SwStr%). Over the first five frames, Morton allowed just one base hit — to Michael Brantley — while striking out five on 49 pitches. Yet, Houston made things interesting in the sixth with the Rays ahead by three. Martín Maldonado walked on four pitches with one out. George Springer followed by grounding into a 5-4 fielder’s choice for the second out. After Jose Altuve worked the count full, and with Springer was on the move, Altuve beat out a chopper to third to put runners on the corners with two outs. Given that Morton’s OPS increased to 1.006 the third time through the order, Rays skipper Kevin Cash called upon Nick Anderson in the high leverage situation. Anderson got Brantley to ground out to second on the second pitch of the at-bat, ending the threat.

Walker Buehler struck out six batters while allowing seven hits and zero walks across six scoreless frames in his last start against Atlanta. Buehler was staked to a three-run lead in the bottom of the first inning, which proved to be all the Dodgers would need in their 3-1 win. The right-hander loaded the bases on three consecutive singles to open the top of the second, but he escaped the jam with a pair of strikeouts and a groundout. He was rarely in much trouble the rest of the way. Buehler opened the regular season with a 5.21 ERA in his first four starts but cruised to a 1.53 ERA in his final four appearances and has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts. Buehler relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin, while also mixing in a firm 82 mph curveball with exceptional bite and slight glove-side movement, a whiffy 93 mph cutter, an 87 mph Slider that sweeps across the zone and boasts two-plane movement, and a 97 mph sinker with little sinking action. Key Matchup: Manuel Margot (1-4, HR)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

TNWN: Rays vs. Dodgers — a World Series preview

Rays 10/23/20 Starting Lineup

  1. Meadows DH
  2. Lowe 2B
  3. Arozarena LF
  4. Choi 1B
  5. Margot RF
  6. Wendle 3B
  7. Adames SS
  8. Kiermaier CF
  9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Dodgers have been particularly careful with Randy Arozarena: He has walked three times. With the Rays finally starting to pick up the offense a bit, Arozarena may finally see some pitches to hit.

TNWN: Rays vs. Yankees — an American League Division Series preview

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This motley crew will start the best of five AL Division Series against the Yankees in San Diego on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wildcard Series, as well as one last workout at Tropicana Field on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for Petco Park in San Diego, where they will face the division-rival New York Yankees in the best of five American League Division Series, starting Monday. The Yankees are coming off a series sweep against Cleveland.

The brief set against the Blue Jays exemplified Tampa Bay’s season. In the first game the Rays pitching staff — led by Blake Snell — limited Toronto to just one run, while the offense took advantage of a wild pitch for the first run of the contest before Manuel Margot hit his first career postseason home run in the bottom of the seventh. Then in game number two, Mike Zunino and Hunter Renfroe used the long ball to plate six runs in the second inning, as the Rays outpaced the Jays, 8-2. All told, Snell and Tyler Glasnow combined for 16 of the pitching staff’s total 26 punchouts across the two ball games.

The Yankees did as they are wont to do in their iteration of the Wildcard series: mash their way to victory against Cleveland while performing to a .653 SLG and a 1.062 OPS across 93 plate appearances, including 11 extra-base hits. But they also did something they’re accustomed to, strike out 24.7% of the time. You can expect the Rays hurlers to exploit that latent whiffiness this week. I know, I know … the Rays also have a lot of swing-and-miss in them. However — and as Brian Anderson regularly said throughout the season — because the Yankees are so dependent upon the long ball, they can be pitched to. The 22 combined runs against Cleveland, arguably, had more to do with a pitching staff that couldn’t keep the Evil Empire in the yard. In the regular season, Tampa Bay proved they can beat you with the long ball, they can beat you by playing small ball, and they can beat you on the mound.

It was another contentious season battle between a pair of rivals that have had a penchant for heated ball games extending all the way back to Spring Training 2008. This season, all the chirping and ill feelings toward one another resulted in the infamous 101 mph pitch at Mike Brosseau’s head which spawned the fabled Tampa Bay 98ers stable.

98ers Rays’ centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier summed things up well on Friday, saying,

With all the history that we’ve had the last couple years, it is what it is. I’ve said it many times: they don’t like us, we don’t like them, and it’s going to continue to stay that way. It’s going to be a very fun, energetic, exciting (series). And I know each team is going to want to try to put it to the opposition. I know that for a fact. So it’s going to be two great teams playing against each other. I know our guys are really excited, we’re ready to go. So I’m very confident. And we plan on having the same thoughts once we get out west and expecting to win that series.

— Kevin Kiermaier

New York’s entitled corps of players attempted to use fear and intimidation against Tampa Bay this season and, well … that strategy clearly was not a winning one. The Rays were neither fearful of, nor intimidated by, the Yankees in 2020. The division champs went 8-2 against the fourth-place seed who scuffled to a 4-6 record across the final 10 games of the season. What’s more, the Rays put up a +13 run differential against the Yanks in 2020, limited them to 13 total home runs, a .691 OPS, and a .117 batting average with runners in scoring position. Moreso, New York averaged 3.4 runs per game while Tampa Bay totaled 4.7 RPG in their meetings.

Because of all this, expect a tense and compelling series that will probably go all five games.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash has committed to throwing Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-4, 4.05 ERA). Aaron Boone will counter with Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA), Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 5.11 ERA). I will update this piece when any changes are announced.

Blake Snell matched the franchise postseason record for the most strikeouts in a start over his 5-2/3 innings of work. Across the first five frames, the southpaw allowed just a two-out walk to Randal Grichuk the first inning and a one-out free pass to Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth that was erased on a double-play ground ball off the bat of Jonathan Villar. Snell struck out eight over that stretch.

Yet, Alejandro Kirk led off the sixth inning by lining a fastball to right for the first hit off Snell. Then number nine hitter Danny Jansen followed fly-ball out to right during a nine-pitch at-bat. Cavan Biggio struck out which ended up being the last batter Snell would face. He threw 82 pitches (48 strikes, 59% strike rate, 38% SwStr%) during his outing. Snell’s exit had more to do with an offense that struggled to put runs on the board, than anything having to do with the hurler’s efficacy or lack thereof. Had the Rays put more than one run on the board through the front six, Cash likely wouldn’t have turned to the bullpen. But that’s all speculation. Snell is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts against the Yankees, and 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against them in 2020. Of note, the left-hander limited right-handed hitters to a .733 OPS this season.

Gerrit Cole allowed two runs on six hits across seven innings on Tuesday, in Game 1 of the AL Wildcard round. He struck out 13 and did not issue a walk. Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a game where everyone expected a pitchers’ duel, lasting seven frames. The Yankees’ ace threw 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) while fanning an impressive number of batters. The right-hander recorded a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 3.89 FIP during the regular season. This season Cole went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA against the Rays, including a five-inning four-run, eight-hit outing which included a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (9-17, 3 2B, 3 HR), Yandy Díaz (5-15, HR), Manuel Margot (4-16, 2B)

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and posted six innings of two-run baseball on six hits (including two solo homers) and one walk while striking out eight.

We showed the potential of what we can do on both sides of the ball. Obviously, in Game 1 we had Blake throw an absolute gem and we were able to scrape enough runs to win, and today showed the bats coming alive and Tyler allowing just two and the bullpen keeping it where it was. I think it just solidifies who we are as a team.

— Mike Zunino

After a 1-2-3 first, Glasnow worked around a pair of singles in the top of the second, yet without incurring any damage. Then, staked to a seven-run lead in the third inning, Danny Jansen launched a solo home run off the right-hander that left a dent in the catwalk above the left-field stands. Bo Bichette followed by earning a walk, but Glasnow buckled down and the Jays settled for just a run. In the fifth inning, Jansen blasted another lead-off solo shot yet that is all he would, or the Rays, allow. Glasnow finished his outing having thrown 86 pitches (55 strikes, 64% strike rate, 20% SwStr%). He held Toronto to 0-for-8 with four punchies with runners in scoring position.

It feels great. We had a bunch of confidence going into this. Everyone went out there with no pressure, just kind of loose like we’ve been all year. Especially in that second inning, just to watch the momentum and the adrenaline from the grand slam, it was a pretty special moment.

T

— Tyler Glasnow

Deivi Garcia struck out seven after allowing four runs on seven hits and one walk across 6-2/3 innings two Saturdays ago against the Marlins. The rookie right-hander allowed three runs on four hits during the third inning, but he otherwise did a good job of limiting the Marlins. Garcia finished his rookie campaign with a 4.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 5.5 K/BB over 27-2/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup, a 76 mph curveball, and an 83 mph slider.

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies two Saturday’s ago and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).

Masahiro Tanaka was knocked around in Game 2 of the American League Wildcard series against Cleveland, allowing six runs on five hits over four innings, while striking out and walking three. Most of the damage was done in the first inning in which five Cleveland hitters reached base and four come around to score. He later allowed the first two batters in the fifth inning to reach base, both of whom would come around to score after he was replaced by a reliever. Tanaka was hit or miss against Tampa Bay this season, allowing two runs or fewer in two outings, while allowing six runs (five earned) in another. Overall, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (6-21, 2 2B), Mike Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (12-39, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR), Austin Meadows (5-19, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 2B, 2 HR)

Ryan Yarbrough will serve as the primary pitcher for Thursday’s contest against the Yankees and is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. It isn’t yet known whether he will get the start or pitch behind an opener. In his final outing of the regular season, Yarbrough allowed no runs on three hits while striking out four across 3-1/3 innings against the Phillies. The left-hander has been very good even though his record may not reflect that, maintaining a 2.57 ERA and a 1.76 FIP, and a 0.00 HR/9. Over his career against the Yankees, Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in six starts (20 IP).

Jordan Montgomery allowed three runs on six hits across 5-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on September 24. He struck out eight without walking a batter. The southpaw threw 88 pitches (60 strikes, 68% strike rate) in a solid outing, although he got outpitched by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Montgomery finished the regular season on a roll, posting a 4.02 ERA and an impressive 8 K/BB over his final three starts and 15-2/3 innings. The left-hander lasted all of 2/3 of an inning in his lone start against Tampa Bay this season, as he allowed four runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk on 39 pitches. All told, Montgomery is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Randy Arozarena (1-1, HR), Michael Brosseau (1-1, HR), Yandy Diaz (1-2), Manuel Margot (1-1, 2B), Austin Meadows (2-2)

Noteworthiness

— The final ALDS roster decisions have been made and outfielder Austin Meadows (oblique strain) has been activated from the Injured List ahead of the series against the Yankees. In order to make room for Meadows, 1B/3B Nate Lowe has been left off the 28-man roster.

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— Cash also decided to carry 13 pitchers on the roster, the same as a week ago for the Wildcard series. LHP Shane McClanahan has once again cracked the roster. He was added to the 40-man and the playoff roster for the Wildcard round although he did not pitch. McClanahan’s first appearance would be his MLB debut. He can work multiple innings.

José Alvarado (lat strain) has not been activated, and left-hander Josh Fleming was again left off, suggesting that Blake Snell would pitch in a game five situation, or that the Rays would go with a bullpen game if there is a deciding contest.

— For once, the Rays will actually play prime-time baseball.

TNWN: Rays vs Blue Jays — a postseason series preview

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Headgear or neck gaiter … it’s all somewhat similar for Joey Wendle. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After collecting one last series sweep this past weekend — the seventh on the season — the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they are set to play in the best of three Wildcard series, starting Tuesday. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Orioles over the weekend.

Tampa Bay enters its second consecutive postseason 20 games over .500 and with the best record in the American League at 40-20 (which extrapolates to a 108-54 record across a 162 game season). Meanwhile, Toronto clinched the final AL playoff spot and finished the season eight games behind the Rays in the loss column (equivalent to a 22 game gap in a 162 game season).

Despite how unfair you may think that this season’s playoff bracket might be — and let’s be honest, it is ridiculous that the best team in the American League will be facing the number eight seed in a Wildcard series — that’s neither here nor now. Both teams will play at most three games to determine who moves on to southern California and who goes home. Yet, it is still better than the one-and-done first round of the playoffs from years past. At any rate, blink and either team could be one game shy of elimination.

The Rays are the favored team because of their pitching staff — they’ll have the advantage in all three potential games of this series when you take starters and relievers into account. What’s more, the Rays offense is marginally better — Tampa Bay managed a 109 wRC+ in 2020 while the Blue Jays performed to a 108 wRC+ — and expect Kevin Cash to deploy more hitters in advantageous positions than Charlie Montoyo, who has less roster flexibility. Put another way, as Ben Clemens (FanGraphs) writes, “Toronto has a puncher’s chance, and they have offensive stars, but those stars will have to succeed through difficult initial conditions while Tampa’s hitters face their preferred type of pitching.”

Yandy Díaz, one of Tampa Bay’s most important right-handed bats, looks ready to return for the playoffs, as does Ji-Man Choi. That gives Kevin Cash the ability to play Díaz and Mike Brosseau on the infield corners, with an all right-handed outfield of Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe against Matt Shoemaker and Robbie Ray, both of whom are better against southpaw hitters. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, both Diaz and Choi tend to stabilize the team’s free-swinging ways.

Diaz had a .428 on-base percentage before a hamstring injury sidelined him, but he also changes the look of the Tampa Bay lineup. When he was gone, the walks for the team went down (11.5% walk for the team pre-injury, 9.6% after) and the strikeouts went up by a significant margin (24.2% pre-Diaz injury, 31.1% after). Ji-Man Choi’s ability to work at-bats also could help significantly, and would take pressure off several players who moved up in the lineup in their absence.

— Neil Solondz

This series will likely come down to which team out pitches the other. The Rays boast the fourth-lowest ERA when you adjust for their home stadium, thanks in part to the core starters who are fully stretched out. Toronto, on the other hand, is 18th in park-adjusted ERA. And yes, that is including starters Matt Shoemaker and  Hyun-jin Ryu, both of whom gave Tampa Bay’s hitters fits this season.

After the starters, Cash will turn things over to The Stable, his highest-leverage relievers — Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, John Curtiss, and Diego Castillo — who combined for a 1.17 ERA and 2.95 FIP this season. They struck out 32.85% of the batters they faced. Anderson in particular performed to a 0.55 ERA and a 1.35 FIP on the season while striking out a disgusting 44.8% of his opponents and walking just three total batters across 16-1/3 innings of work. Bear in mind too, Cash can turn to Ryan Yarbrough, Ryan Sherriff, Ryan Thompson, or Aaron Loup as he sees fit.

Still, Toronto finished the season playing its best baseball, winning four consecutive ball-games against the Yankees and Orioles before dropping the season finale. Even so, they also went 5-5 over the final 10 games of the season. For their part, the Rays also finished the season strong, winning four in a row, and eight of their last 10.

Be that as it may, the Blue Jays were tough competitors against the Rays this season. Eight of the 10 games between the two clubs were decided by just one or two runs. And even though Tampa Bay won 60% of the matchups, they went 4-3 against the Jays at the Trop and were outscored by four runs in total.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), and Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 4.71 ERA), Hyun-jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (4-3, 2.70 ERA).

Blake Snell gave up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out nine against the Mets last Tuesday. After keeping the ball in the yard in both of his prior two starts, Snell couldn’t keep the streak going Tuesday, as both Robinson Cano and Yonder Alonso took him deep for solo shots. That was enough offense to back Seth Lugo, who outdueled Snell by allowing only two runs (one earned) over 6-1/3 innings. Even so, Snell matched his season-high in strikeouts, with the southpaw racking up 22 swinging strikes among his 108 pitches (67 strikes, 62% strike rate, 33% SwStr%). The left-hander allowed two runs across 7-2/3 innings against Toronto this season (two outings) for a 2.35 ERA. Overall, Snell is 4-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 13 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Matt Shoemaker allowed one run on three hits and two walks across three innings on Monday against the Yankees. He struck out one. It was a short start for Shoemaker, as he was only built up to throw a maximum of 60 pitches after being held out since August 21 with a lat strain. He was able to log three innings on 54 pitches, allowing an RBI single to Gio Urshela in the second inning. The finesse right-hander is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts (15 innings) against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (3-4), Brandon Lowe (3-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Glasnow allowed solo shots to Andres Gimenez and Dominic Smith, but he was otherwise dominant. The right-hander has won three consecutive starts and five of his last six outings. He enters the postseason with a respectable 4.08 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB across 57-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

Hyun-jin Ryu allowed five hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings on Thursday against the Yankees. He struck out four. The veteran left-hander came through with another dazzling effort to clinch a playoff berth for Toronto. Ryu heads into the postseason with a 2.69 ERA and a 4.24 K/BB through 67 innings. Ryu is 0-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchup: Yoshi Tsutsugo (1-4, HR)

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies on Saturday and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%). Morton is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.

Taijuan Walker retired all nine batters he faced before giving way to the bullpen on Friday. He struck out four. With an eye on setting up his postseason rotation, Charlie Montoyo pulled Walker after only 42 pitches (28 strikes, 67% strike rate), denying the right-hander a chance at his fifth win of the season. This came after he struck out eight Phillies in his previous start. Since joining the Jays, Walker has posted a stellar 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.72 K/BB over 26-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard 86 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph splitter with a ton of backspin, a 93 mph sinker, and a 75 mph curveball with exceptional bite. Walker is 0-0 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have announced that Kevan Smith, Ryan Sherriff and Josh Fleming did not make the Wildcard round roster, although they are still in the playoff pool and eligible for future rounds. Additionally, they have have formally announced that Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Díaz have been activated and are on the playoff roster. Shane McClanahan has also been selected and will make his big-league debut in the postseason. Sean Gilmartin has been designated for assignment to make room the on the 40-man roster.


— Let’s Get Wild!

— By the by, Dave and Andy on the radio side will be calling the games for Tampa Bay.

— …Lest I forget

https://twitter.com/TriciaWhitaker/status/1310612027849797632?s=20

— And finally