After taking two of three in Kansas City, the Tampa Bay Rays will continue their road trip in Arlington, when they start a three-game set against the Rangers on Monday. Texas swept the Guardians over the weekend.
at 60-36 on the season, the Rays enter play 24 games over .500 and in first place in the AL East, by a game, over the Orioles. The Rangers sit atop the AL West by 3.0 games over the Astros.
In their first series against the Rangers, at the Trop, the Rays were able to take two of three. However, a road series could be a challenge for them here, especially considering the dropoff between their home and road records. Tampa Bay still maintains a winning record on the road but adding in recent struggles — they’ve only won three of their last 10 games, which leaves quite a bit to be desired — could mean a challenging series in Arlington. Whatever the case, their aim is to have a second half as strong as the first. In a potential postseason preview, Tampa Bay needs to set the tone in the series opener.
Baseball pundits and analysts alike have expected Texas to fall off at some point, yet the Rangers continue to rack up the wins. At 29-18 at home, they’ve played their best in front of their fans. Much like Tampa Bay, though, they have struggled as well of late — having gone only 4-6 over their last ten games.
The Rays enter play with an overall 3.70 ERA and 4.00 FIP (3.64 ERA and 3.65 FIP for the starters, 3.76 ERA, and 4.40 FIP for the relievers). Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay maintains a much improved 3.62 ERA and 3.32 FIP (3.96 ERA and 2.92 FIP for the starters, 3.32 ERA and 3.68 FIP for the relievers) given some pretty ugly numbers running up to the All-Star Break.
Meanwhile, Texas maintains an overall 3.98 ERA and 4.15 FIP (3.72 ERA and 4.26 FIP for the starters, 4.44 ERA, and 3.96 FIP for the relievers). Their numbers over the last 14 days aren’t too pretty, with Rangers’ hurlers putting up a combined 5.34 ERA and a 5.17 FIP (6.10 ERA and a 6.49 FIP for the starters, and a 4.34 ERA and a 3.44 FIP for the relievers).
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.53 ERA, 3.86 FIP), Taj Bradley (5-5, 5.43 ERA, 3.99 FIP), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale. Bruce Bochy will counter with Dane Dunning (8-2, 2.84 ERA, 3.83 FIP), Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 2.83 ERA, 3.18 FIP), and Jon Gray (6-5, 3.45 ERA, 4.58 FIP).
Shane McClanahan (mid-back tightness) was placed on the 15-day Injured List after exiting back-to-back starts due to back tightness. After taking time to rest, McClanahan threw a bullpen session on July 9 and another on Thursday afternoon, with manager Kevin Cash reporting that the ace hit 95 mph in the lower-intensity setting. He had been expected to come off the IL when eligible on Sunday, however, Friday’s rainout shuffled Tampa Bay’s pitching plans, pushing him back to Monday. Despite two multi-run contests ahead of his IL stint, the left-hander ended the first half with a 2.53 ERA and a 3.86 FIP, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 2.66 K/BB.
Dane Dunning allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against the Nationals on Sunday, July 9. He struck out four and threw 88 pitches (59 strikes, 67% strike rate, 7% SwStr%). While Dunning had an impressive first half, he struggled against one of baseball’s worst teams, tying his season high in runs allowed and failing to finish six innings for the first time since June 17. All of the damage against Dunning came late, as a Dominic Smith solo homer in the fifth inning put the Nationals on the board. Through 20 appearances (12 starts), Dunning boasts an impressive 2.84 ERA and a 3.83 FIP … although hasn’t missed many bats, logging 59 strikeouts (5.77 K/9) through 92 frames. Dunning relies primarily on a 91 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action, an 89 mph cutter, and an 83 mph slider that has exceptional depth, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup that has obvious arm-side fade and some natural sink. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (1-3), Luke Raley (1-2), Taylor Walls (1-2)
Taj Bradley allowed four runs on five hits and two walks while striking out four batters over five innings against Atlanta prior to the break. Bradley made it through three perfect frames before surrendering four runs — three of which came on one swing of the bat from Sean Murphy — in the fourth. He was able to settle down and complete another scoreless inning before his departure. Bradley has hit a rough patch to close out the first half of the season, posting an 11.68 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and a 2.25 K/BB across 12.1 frames over his past three starts. His recent struggles have him sitting on a poor 5.43 ERA that’s belied by a 3.99 FIP (and an unlucky .348 BABIP), with a 1.39 WHIP and a 4.21 K/BB over 61.1 frames heading into the All-Star Break.
Nathan Eovaldi allowed four runs on five hits and four walks while striking out three batters over 5.1 innings against Boston on Thursday. Eovaldi was in trouble from the jump, allowing the first two batters he faced to reach base in a one-run first inning. He didn’t record a 1-2-3 frame until the fifth, and he was lifted with one out in the sixth to finish with his shortest start since May 29 (vs. Detroit). Eovaldi had a 2.24 ERA at the end of a scoreless six-inning appearance against Seattle on June 4, but that mark has risen to 2.83 over the course of his past six starts starting with a four-run/seven hit/three walk outing against the Rays. Not coincidentally, the right-hander’s control has faltered over that stretch — he’s issued 17 walks over his past 37.1 innings after walking just 14 batters across his initial 80.1 frames of the campaign. Overall, Eovaldi maintains a 2.83 ERA and a 3.18 FIP, with a 1.02 WHIP, and a 3.52 K/BB on the season. Key Matchups: Josh Lowe (3-4, 2B, BB), Manuel Margot (2-7), Francisco Mejía (4-10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Luke Raley (1-3, 2B, RBI), Taylor Walls (1-2, 2B)
TBA
Jon Gray allowed four runs on five hits and three walks over six innings against Cleveland on Friday. He struck out four on 88 pitches (54 strikes, 61% strike rate, 3% SwStr%). All the damage against Gray came in the third inning when he served up a pair of two-run homers. He’s surrendered 19 runs over his last five turns, driving his ERA from 2.32 to 3.45 (with a 4.37 FIP) in the process. Since his 12-strikeout, zero-walk performance on June 7, Gray has posted a lackluster 1.23 K/BB over his last five starts. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-3, HR, RBI), Wander Franco (1-1, RBI), José Siri (2-4)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
Ignorance plays raw hardcore along the lines of Confuse, Kriegshög, Lebenden Toten, and Gauze. Their newest EP is a total ripper!