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PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays could contend in 2018

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Kevin Kiermaier is projected to perform to a 4.0 WARp in 2018. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2018 season. In spite of the trade that sent the face of the franchise to San Francisco, the projection system forecasts the Rays as the fifth best team in the American League, and third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 84 wins to 78 losses. If the Rays were to end as the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

How will the Rays fare in the East? Here are a few highlights, while a full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

Projected 2018 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 724 runs are 54 more than they plated in 2017, yet just 10 runs better than the Tigers, who are projected to end their 2018 campaign with a 68-94 record. The projected .250 BA/.309 OBP/.397 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .245 BA/.317 OBP/.422 SLG line collected by the team last season ― albeit with much less pop.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fifth fewest runs in the American League at 696 ― 14 more than the Red Sox, the Rays closest competitor in that category.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .255 is 10 points higher than last season’s batting average, while their projected .397 SLG is the lowest in the AL East.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Christian Arroyo (not Matt Duffy) spending the most time at third base, while Duffy is projected to slot in at at second base, and Brad Miller at first. Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, and Justin Williams are all projected to be promoted in 2018, however, don’t expect them to break camp with the Rays.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Wilson Ramos will to get the majority of playing time over Jesus Sucre (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Miller is projected to post a 1.1 WARp at first, although he is expected to bounce back from an abysmal 2017 to the tune of a .240 BA/.318 OBP/.407 SLG/.262 Tav.
  • Unsurprisingly, PECOTA likes Kevin Kiermaier for a 4.0 WARp in center — the strongest position for the Rays.
  • PECOTA likes Adeiny Hechavarria at short, although he is projected to post just a 0.5 WARp. Compare that to Matt Duffy, who is projected to perform to a 1.6 WARp even though he’ll only spend 10% of his playing time there.
  • Denard Span is projected to get 55% of the reps in left field, followed by newcomer Mallux Smith with 25% of the reps. The tandem is projected to combine for a 1.0 WARp.
  • Corey Dickerson’s .274 TAv that is higher than anyone else on the team, and because of it he looks to receive the most playing time at DH.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (176 IP, 3.5 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (150 IP, 0.6 WARp), Blake Snell (127 IP, 1.8 WARp), Jacob Faria (114 IP, 1.3 WARp), and Brent Honeywell (95 IP, 1.0 WARp). Nathan Eovaldi, Jose De Leon, Austin Pruitt and Ryan Yarbrough also may factor into the rotation in some capacity.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Alex Colome (closer); Dan Jennings and Ryne Stanek (setup); Chaz Roe, Andrew Kittredge, Jose Alvarado and Chih-Wei Hu (middle-relief); Matt Andriese (long relief).

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 18.5 runs above average — fourth best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (22.8 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -14.6 FRAA.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

I know this offseason has been marred with rumors of a rebuild, yet the Rays could still end the season playing relevant ball in October. A projected 84 win season — 90 or 78, thanks a six game margin of error — has got to make those of us who feel like we’ve been kicked in the guts at least optimistic for something better than what most have predicted.

Tampa Bay Rays 9/27/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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Maybe next year, Evan. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After dropping the first game of a three-game series with the Yankees, 6-1 — while also officially falling out of playoff contention — the Tampa Bay Rays now focus their sights on ending the season with a .500 record. In order for them to do so, the Rays will have to win their remaining five games of the season, starting tonight in New York.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese (5-4, 4.62 ERA, 4.89 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Luis Severino (13-6, 3.03 ERA, 3.08 FIP).

Andriese is looking to avoid his fourth loss in five starts. After performing to a 3.45 ERA in his first 11 turns, Andriese has posted an unsightly 8.47 ERA, and has allowed five homers in four starts since returning from the DL. He, however, turned in a solid six-inning, three-run start on Thursday, blanking the Orioles from the second inning on after allowing three first inning runs.

Severino was chased after he allowed three runs on five hits over three-innings of work. Be that as it may, he has a chance to climb up the Yankees’ single-season strikeout leaderboard against the Rays on Wednesday. He enters play with 221 strikeouts (fifth most) with a chance to catch David Cone (222) and CC Sabathia (230). Severino has allowed three-runs on 10 hits and four walks over 12 innings of work this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2, HR, RBI), Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Logan Morrison (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (1-1), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/27/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Dickerson LF
Hechavarria SS
Miller 2B
Sucre C
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

— Thank you for everything, Alex! Rays skipper Kevin Cash confirmed that Alex Cobb indeed will skip his final turn of the season on Thursday. The right-hander made a career best 179-1/3 innings and 29 starts this season, and is slated to be a free agent. We will have a proper goodbye following the season.

— Remember last week when we wrote that Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays?

Rays 9/22/17 starting lineup and pregame notes; Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays

As it turns out, a certain other “local” blog has gone out of its way to project its own (contrary) narrative. Don’t get me wrong, this site is great and informative, however, what should be acknowledged is that taxpayer’s opinions are their own regardless whether a survey is scientific or not. Contrary to popular belief, and I know this may be shocking, but maybe — just maybe — the taxpayers of Tampa find things like infrastructure and mass transit to be more important, than something like a new baseball stadium … especially when those citizens are still paying off Raymond James Stadium, as well as other facilities.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Yankees — a series preview

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Bump day for Blake Snell in the series opener against the Yankees on Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After splitting a four-game series with the Orioles in Baltimore, the Tampa Bay Rays made their way to the big city where they are set to start one last series against the Yankees, on Tuesday. The Yankees, who recently punched their postseason ticket for the first time since 2015, are coming off a series loss to the Blue Jays.

(Stats: MLB.com)

Tampa Bay’s offense woke up in Baltimore over the weekend, however, a poor start by Chris Archer on Sunday effectively signed the team’s death-warrant as it relates to a Wildcard berth. At 76-80, the Rays will now seek a consolation prize on what could be seen as a lost season — either go 5-1 and finish the year with a .500 record, or win six in a row and finish two-games over .500.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Two things stand in the way of the Rays and their de facto goal: the Yankees bullpen — which has been very good over the last 14-games — and themselves. Tampa Bay hasn’t won more than four consecutive games this season … and even then the Rays have only done so three times (5/16-5/20, 6/7-6/10, 7/8-7/15). Moreover, they are 6-10 against New York this season, and 1-6 in the Bronx.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (4-6, 4.01 ERA, 4.28 FIP), Matt Andriese (5-4, 4.62 ERA, 4.89 FIP) and Jacob Faria (5-4, 3.32 ERA, 3.81 FIP), who will likely pitch in the place of Alex Cobb. Joe Girardi will counter with Jordan Montgomery (8-7, 4.06 ERA, 4.20 FIP), Luis Severino (13-6, 3.03 ERA, 3.08 FIP), and Sonny Gray (4-6, 3.12 ERA, 4.39 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell continued his turnaround season on Wednesday, matching a career high by tossing seven scoreless innings in a win over the Cubs. Snell now has tossed at least seven innings in three of his last six starts, compared to just one in his first 35 big league starts. The southpaw entered Wednesday’s game with a respectable 3.75 ERA/1.17 WHIP/7.9 K:9 through 11 second-half starts, and has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 post All-Star Break outings.

Montgomery posted six scoreless frames in his last start against the O’s, on September 19. It was the longest outing for the left-hander since July 25th. The Rays chased Montgomery after 2-2/3 innings after he allowed four runs on six hits and two walks on July 30th. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-4, 2B), Corey Dickerson (1-4, 2 RBI), Lucas Duda (1-1), Evan Longoria (1-4, BB), Trevor Plouffe (1-2, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-2, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-4, 2B, BB)

Andriese is looking to avoid his fourth loss in five starts. After performing to a 3.45 ERA in his first 11 turns, Andriese has posted an unsightly 8.47 ERA, and has allowed five homers in four starts since returning from the DL. He, however, turned in a solid six-inning, three-run start on Thursday, blanking the Orioles from the second inning on after allowing three first inning runs.

Severino was chased after he allowed three runs on five hits over three-innings of work. Be that as it may, he has a chance to climb up the Yankees’ single-season strikeout leaderboard against the Rays on Wednesday. He enters play with 221 strikeouts (fifth most) with a chance to catch David Cone (222) and CC Sabathia (230). Severino has allowed three-runs on 10 hits and four walks over 12 innings of work this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2, HR, RBI), Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Logan Morrison (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (1-1), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

Faria likely will get the start on Thursday instead of Alex Cobb, who has thrown 179 innings in his first full season since returning from Tommy John surgery. That is to say, Cobb’s last start was likely, well … his last start in a Rays uniform. In two relief appearances since returning from the DL, Faria has allowed two runs on two hits (including a homer) in five innings of work. He looks to break a five game losing skid in this, his final start of the season.

Gray has performed to a 3.12 ERA over 10 starts with the Yankees, as he prepares for his final tuneup for a potential October start. Gray allowed a solo homer in the third inning of his last start, but otherwise held Toronto in check while the Yankees scored three times in the fifth inning — allowing him to notch his 10th victory of 2017. The right-hander was a hard luck loser in his last start against Tampa Bay after he gave up just two runs on five hits (including two solo jacks) over eight innings of work. He struck out 10. Otherwise, he has allowed nine runs (six earned) on 21 hits over 20-1/3 innings against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (1-4, 2B), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-3, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-16, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-8, 2B, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Matt Duffy participated in an Instructional League game on Monday, getting three at-bats. The goal is for him to be healthy going into the off-season, as he gets prepared for 2018 which could find him moving over to second base or slotting in as Adeiny Hechavarria’s understudy.

— Xavier Cedeno and Charlier Montoyo are both relieved to have finally heard from their families in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria crashed into the island nation six days ago. They are all safe, although they are still dealing with myriad issues.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — the penultimate series preview

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The Tampa Bay Rays split the season series with the reigning World Series champs after they beat the Cubs 8-1 on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

After beating the reigning World Series champs Wednesday night, 8-1, the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, in Baltimore. The Rays have won two of the last three, but just four of the last 10. The Orioles have lost three straight and six of the last seven. The season series is tied at six apiece.

(Stats: MLB.com)

The governor has yet to sign the Rays’ death warrant.

Tampa Bay’s offensive outburst Wednesday night kept the team’s improbable postseason* hopes alive going into this four-game set. Their attack was three-fold, and something they must continue to hone over the waning schedule, starting a month ago … erm, now.

First, say what you will about Chris Archer, however, he limited the mighty Chicago Cubs — a team that had averaged 5.33 runs per game in the previous series against the Cardinals — to just two runs. Furthermore, the pitching staff as a whole gave up only three combined runs over the last two games.

Simply put, the Rays pitching staff must continue to keep its team in ball games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Second, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid of late, punctuated by the play of Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Orioles may be a shadow of their former selves, however, they can and will punish mistakes. In short, pitching and defense are critically important.

Finally, the offense must perform as it had on Wednesday and Friday (September 15), when the Rays plated at least four runs in each game. Two and three run games likely won’t cut it, as evidenced by the fact that Tampa Bay had won just four of the last 11 games when the team scored three runs or fewer.

We gotta get back to doing that a little more often than maybe once every so often.
— Kevin Cash, on the Rays’ offense breaking loose to score some runs Wednesday night

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.63 ERA, 5.05 FIP), Alex Cobb (11-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (9-8, 4.46 ERA, 5.72 FIP), and Chris Archer (9-11, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 5.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (6-10, 6.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP), and also likely with former Ray Jeremy Hellickson (2-5, 7.29 ERA, 6.57 FIP) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP).

Asterisk denotes assumed starters. (Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Andriese lasted 4-1/3 innings in his last start Friday vs. Boston, the fifth time in 15 starts this season he did not finish five innings (two were injury-shortened starts). He, however, yielded two earned runs or fewer for the ninth time in 15 starts. Andriese is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three games (two starts) against Baltimore. He has not faced the Orioles this season.

Ynoa is winless in two starts since joining the starting rotation in early September, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He is aiming for his second win of the season against the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on an 85mph 12-6 slider, a 94 mph four-seam fastball with depth, and a 95mph sinker with run. The right-hander also has mixed in an 86mph changeup with arm side fade. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, RBI, BB)

Cobb took a loss to Boston on Saturday, in a 5.1 IP/3 ER outing. That prevented him from becoming the first Rays pitcher with four wins over the Red Sox in a single season. Nevertheless, the right-hander he has a 2.98 ERA in 16 starts since June 9, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.

Jimenez fanned 10 batters and allowed just one earned run over five solid innings in his last turn. It was the second-most strikeouts he’s had in a game this season. He, however, is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, while averaging under four innings of work in each outing. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechvarria (4-7, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-22, 2 HR, 8 RBI), Logan Morrison (6-14, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B), Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Odorizzi no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning on Sunday before he allowed a walk and a two-run homer to Jackie Bradley Jr. The right-hander had a live fastball, coaxing 15 swings-and-misses on his 96 pitches, including 10 on his 61 fastballs. Odorizzi has now allowed just three earned runs across 16-1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Hellickson, in his last start against the New York Yankees on Sunday, was shelled for six runs on four hits (including two home runs) and four walks over just three innings of work. The former Ray has given up three runs or fewer in only four of his nine starts as an Oriole, while performing to a 7.28 ERA/6.16 FIP since the All-Star break. Suffice it to say, the right-hander hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in his year and a half stint with the Phillies. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (7-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-10, HR, 3 RBI)

Archer went six innings Tuesday against the Cubs, his longest start since August 27 (vs. St. Louis) — snapping a streak of three consecutive starts of four innings pitched or fewer. He has lost four straight decisions for the third time in his career, although considering that Archer’s last three appearances had seen him give up 13 runs (11 earned) in a grand total of seven innings, this represents a big leap forward.

Bundy, like Hellickson before him, was lambasted in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits and a walk over 4-1/3 innings, while fanning just a pair. The right-hander is 1-1 but with a 5.19 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-8, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (2-5, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— *Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) writes that there are a few scenarios which could net an AL Wildcard berth for the Rays, one of which involves a six-way tie between the other contenders.

— Former Ray (and current Oriole) Tim Beckham told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s more focused on the “start of a new journey” with Baltimore, and that his career with Tampa Bay is “in the past.”

— The Rays activated Xavier Cedeño from the 60 day-DL Thursday afternoon.

Rays 9/15/17 pregame notes, Faria activated, Hurricane Irma food drive

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Corey Dickerson and the Rays provided first responders with food this afternoon for their long hours on the beat following Hurricane Irma. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)


The Tampa Bay Rays will begin a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox tonight at Tropicana Field.

Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.66 ERA, 5.02 FIP) will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Chris Sale (16-7, 2.76 ERA, 2.20 FIP).

Andriese was knocked out in the second inning after he allowed eight runs (six earned) in his last start against the Red Sox. One had to question his sequence of pitches in the first inning at-bat vs. Dustin Pedroia. He followed a dust-off pitch with a heater that was up and over the inner third of the plate — right in Pedroia’s juice zone. From there, things spiraled out of control for the Rays, who appeared to be no match for the very aggressive Red Sox. Expect Andriese to be on a very short leash Friday night.

Sale will face the Rays for the sixth and final time this season. Boston took a lead in the first inning last weekend against Tampa Bay, which was more run support than Sale would need — allowing him to easily collect his 16th victory of the season. The southpaw has fared well against Tampa Bay thus far, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 2017, although he’s pitched even better Tropicana Field over his career, going 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA. Sale is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 17 road starts this season. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-7, 2B, HR, RBI), Danny Espinosa (2-5), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-15, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Trevor Plouffe (15-52, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Don’t forget to bring some donations for those effected by Hurricane Irma. The Rays will host a food drive all weekend. Per the team’s press release: 

The Tampa Bay Rays and Rays players are asking fans to help with hurricane relief efforts. You can donate by going to youcaring.com/raysirmarelief. To continue Roberto Clemente’s legacy of care and compassion, the Rays will be hosting the Feeding Tampa Bay Food Drive, supported by First Class Moving, all weekend long. All fans who donate unopened cans and non-perishable food items will receive a voucher for two complimentary tickets to a 2018 Rays home game (some exclusions apply).

Items of greatest need include canned, ready-to-eat items with pull-tops (e.g. vegetables, fruit); protein in pouches or pull-top cans (e.g. tuna, beef stew, chili, canned chicken); snacks (e.g. protein bars, granola bars, etc.); peanut butter; toiletries, paper goods, diapers; and cleaning supplies (e.g. mops, mop buckets, brooms, bleach wipes, bleach, garbage bags, bug spray). Donations can be dropped off to collection areas outside of Gate 1, inside Gate 1 and inside Gate 3. Rays Season Ticket Holders will also have a special collection area inside the Republic Bank Draft Room. Season Ticket Holders who donate in the Draft Room will receive Rays Rewards Points. Thank you for your support – together, we can make a difference.

Rays 9/15/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza Jr. RF
Longoria 3B
Plouffe 1B
Hechavarria SS
Ramos C
Bourjos LF
Puello DH
Espinosa 2B
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have activated RHP Jake Faria activated from the 10-day DL. He will be available tonight out of bullpen, likely pitching behind Matt Andriese who will be on a short leash.

— After making a rather distasteful jab at the Rays and Logan Morrison, the New York Yankees will donate $500,000 to Hurricane Irma relief efforts, with $250,000 going to Red Cross, and $250,000 to Salvation Army. Being someone effected by Irma, I can safely say that the Yankees can shove their money up their own asses.