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The New What Next: Rays vs Astros — a series preview

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The Rays salvaged the finale of a four game series against the Yankees on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The American League East will square off with the American League West, when the Tampa Bay Rays begin a three-game series against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Monday. The Rays followed a three-game sweep against the Blue Jays by dropping three-of-four to the Yankees, while the Astros have won 11 in a row.

With the win on Sunday, the Rays snapped a nine-game road losing streak, their longest since 2016.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays struggled in the series against the Yankees, plating a total of seven runs in the four games. It, frankly, will not get any easier for in their upcoming against the Astros, who have the top ERA in the American League. For their part, the reigning World Series champs scored 24 runs in their series with the Royals.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tampa Bay’s offense has dramatically regressed, due in large part to a 25.5% strikeout rate. In fact, the Rays’ 13.2% SwStr rate is a mere eight points lower that the Astros overall strikeout rate over the last 14 days. What’s more, the overall batting average, walk rate and on base percentage have fallen over the same span of time, meaning they’ve left a lot chicken on the bone when given the opportunity to plate some runs.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-1, 2.55 ERA) — who likely will be followed by Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.27 ERA) — Blake Snell (8-4, 2.58 ERA), and Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 4.63 ERA) the next three days. A.J. Hinch will respond with Gerrit Cole (8-1, 2.40 ERA), Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.61 ERA), and Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.94 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek will get the nod ahead of Matt Andriese on Monday. Stanek has been very good over his last 14-innings of work, allowing just two runs on six hits while fanning 15. He is in the midst of an eight inning, six-game scoreless streak. Andriese allowed just two hits and one walk across 3-2/3 innings on Wednesday against Toronto. He struck out two. It was a nice bounce-back performance for the right-hander, who had allowed eight runs (five earned) over his previous five appearances (11 innings of work). Andriese now owns a solid 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 5.00 K/BB over 41-1/3 innings this season.

Gerrit Cole allowed four runs on six hits and two walks across six innings. He struck out six. Cole allowed a pair of homers, but but otherwise pounded the zone after the Astros lineup staked him to a 10-run lead over the first two frames. The right-hander ate innings, avoided any major uprisings and earned his sixth consecutive win (his third straight start). This season Cole has relied primarily on a whiffy 97 mph four-seam fastball with some slight armside run, an 89 mph slider, and an 83 mph worm-killer curveball with sharp downward bite and some glove-side movement. He is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA in six starts at Minute Made Park. Key Matchups: C.J. Cron (1-1, 2B, RBI), Carlos Gomez (5-12, 3B, BB)

Blake Snell allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over five innings on Thursday. He struck out eight. Snell had won his last four decisions heading in to this tough matchup against the Yankees, last taking a loss on May 13 against the Orioles. That was also the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. Even with the rough outing, the southpaw has performed to a stellar 2.58 ERA across 87-1/3 innings with a 3.34 K/BB. Snell is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in three career starts against Houston.

Justin Verlander allowed three runs on five hits while striking out seven across seven innings against the Athletics on Thursday. It wasn’t Verlander’s sharpest performance, as the right-hander allowed a pair of homers in the game, but it got the job done. At the end of May he owned a 1.11 ERA, although that number jumped to a still-pristine 1.61 after Thursday’s contest. This season Verlander has relied on a whiffy 95 mph four-seam fastball with good “rising” action, and an 87 mph slider. He has also mixed in an 80 mph curveball with sharp downward bite. The 35 year-old is 8-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 16 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Rob Refsnyder (2-2, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-4, BB)

Nathan Eovaldi allowed five runs over 7-1/3 innings in his last start on Friday. He struck out five. Eovaldi largely cruised through the Yankees lineup, with the exceptions of a third inning solo shot and a sixth inning sac fly, before running out of gas in a three-run eighth. Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his four starts since returning from the DL, allowing three runs or more in three of those starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four career starts against the Astros.

Charlie Morton allowed three runs on four hits over six innings against the Royals on Friday. He struck out nine and walked four. Morton gave up a two-run double to Mike Moustakas in the third inning then later walked Moustakas with the bases loaded in the fifth. The walks are a problem for Morton (he walked six in 3-2/3 innings in his previous start), but he was still able to come away with the win thanks to an Evan Gattis grand slam. The right-hander has performed to a 2.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along with an excellent 3.18 K/BB over 82-2/3 innings. This season Morton has relied primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and natural sinking action, a whiffy 80 mph knuckle curveball with sweeping glove-side movement and sharp downward bite, and a 96 mph two-seam sinker with some slight armside run, while also mixing in a whiffy 89 mph cutter and an 88 mph splitter with armside fade. Morton is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (6-16, HR), Adeiny Hechavarria (2 2B, BB), Wilson Ramos (5-13, RBI, BB)

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part two — a series preview

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CJ Cron enters the series against the Blue Jays with 15 homers on the season, one shy of his career high. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Monday night. Toronto is coming off a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, while the Rays dropped three of four against Seattle, and nine of their last 10.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Blue Jays have been scorching at the plate of late, racking up 27 runs and 56 hits en route to a four-game sweep of Baltimore.

For their part, the Rays are not a bad team, however, they are just shy of being a good team … more often than not one run shy. Tampa Bay has lost a Major League leading 17 games by one run, including three in their last series.

With yesterday’s loss, the Rays have fallen to 29-35 on the season and run fourth place in the AL East — 1/2 game behind the Blue Jays.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.68 ERA) in the series openers, and presumably Austin Pruitt (1-3, 4.57 ERA) and Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.58 ERA) on Tuesday and Wednesday, based on when they last pitched. The Rays, however, have not set the starting rotation. We will offer updates when the situation clarifies. John Gibbons will counter with Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.51 ERA), Jaime García (2-4, 5.57 ERA), and JA Happ (8-3, 3.71 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryan Yarbrough will get the start on Monday. He has made 14 appearances this season, and has pitched to a 3.68 ERA/3.91 FIP over 58-2/3 innings overall. And though he is averaging just over four innings each time he gets the ball, that’s due in large part to his usage from March 31 to April 28. In his last outing, Yarbrough allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings.

Sam Gaviglio gave up three hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings, while striking out four. Gaviglio has allowed three runs or fewer in three of four starts and two of those were scoreless outings. One key to his success? He has walked seven over 28-2/3 innings this season. Be that as it may, he has managed just a 2.66 K/BB over the last 14 days. Gaviglio also has performed to a 1.38 HR/9 (20% HR/FB) and a very lucky — yet unsustainable — .216 BABIP over the same span. This season he has relied primarily on an 89 mph sinker and an 84 mph 12-6 slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sink and slight armside run, an 84 mph changeup with natural and a 79 mph curveball with little depth. Key Matchup: Daniel Robertson (1-2)

Austin Pruitt (1-3) allowed five earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out six across seven innings on Thursday. To be sure, the five earned runs are ugly, however, the bulk of the damage came in a three run second, and the other runs came on a pair of solo homers to Denard Span and Mitch Haniger. That is to say, Pruitt settled in and kept the Rays in the game. Pruitt has allowed four or more runs just three of his 10 appearances this season.

Jaime García threw six innings Thursday, allowing one run on three walks and four hits while fanning six in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. The Jays couldn’t give him much run support until a ninth-inning rally, so he didn’t factor into the decision. The 31-year-old southpaw lowered his season ERA to 5.57 to go along with a 2.08 K/BB ratio over 53-1/3 innings. Garcia has relied primarily on his 90 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action, and a whiffy 90 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 82 mph slider with depth and armside cut, a whiffy 82 mph changeup, and a 73 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and slight glove-side movement. He is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA in one start against the Rays (4-2/3 IP). Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (12-33, 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI)

Matt Andriese allowed two earned runs on five hits, a walk and an HBP over 2-1/3 innings of a loss to Seattle on Friday. He struck out two. Andriese stayed away from the long ball, although he struggled overall through 48 pitches. The two runs he allowed came on soft contact — a Guillermo Heredia fielder’s choice and a Mitch Haniger single — but, the fact remains that Andriese has already allowed three earned runs over his first two June outings, and multiple runs in four of his last five appearances. All this after he performed to a .169 BA/.217 OBP/.338 SLG/.555 OPS line, and a 2.04 ERA/3.33 FIP, over 17-2/3 innings in May.

JA Happ picked up the win in a 5-1 victory over Baltimore, allowing only one unearned run on two hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. The punch outs tied a season low, although pitching to contact seemed to suit the left-hander just fine as he delivered his fourth quality start in his last five trips to the mound, and seventh on the season. Happ allowed three runs on four hits (including a homer) over 5-2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on May 4. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (5-10, HR, 3 RBI), Johnny Field (1-2, HR), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI), Rob Refsnyder (1-4, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier and Adeiny Hechavarria are set to begin their rehab assignments this week, with both players heading to Port Charlotte Monday and Tuesday.

— Daniel Robertson left yesterday’s game in the first inning with a strained hamstring. While not severe, the injury was enough to place Robertson on the 10-day disabled list. In his place, the team has promoted one of baseball’s top prospects, Willy Adames, back to the big leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays 4/29/18 starting lineup and pregame notes

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After falling behind early on, the Rays rattled off their eighth consecutive win on Saturday. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

Following a come from behind, 12-6 victory against Boston Saturday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays look to notch their third consecutive series sweep today … weather permitting, that is.

Because Yonny Chirinos lasted just two-plus innings yesterday afternoon — leaving Rays manager Kevin Cash to lean on LHP Ryan Yarbrough, who seemed likely to start the series finale — the Rays instead will turn to RHP Matt Andriese this afternoon. Andriese will be making his first start of the season after seven relief outings.

The team made a quick decision to scratch RHP Chih-Wei Hu from his scheduled start for Triple-A Durham, with the intent of bringing him up to add a fresh arm to the ‘pen. To make room for Hu on the roster, Yarbrough was optioned to Durham.

The Rays have been riding some pretty hot bats over the life of their eight-game winning streak, including that of Wilson “the Buffalo” Ramos.

Yesterday Ramos doubled in the second inning, scored on an inside the park home run by Denard Span, and then hit one over the Monster the following inning — his third homer in three games, becoming the organization’s first catcher to hit three home runs in three consecutive games.

The Rays’ primary backstop walked in his third plate appearance, then singled in his fourth. He, however, was pulled from the game in the seventh inning with groin soreness.

Following the game, Cash said they felt confident Ramos was okay, and would be available on an emergency basis Sunday. He is also expected to return to regular duty in the next few days.

Field hit his first big-league home run, a three-run blast to left in the ninth.

It was kind of weird the way it worked out, Field said. I was obviously in bunt mode the first two pitches and I saw them take the sign off and I had a good feeling he’d groove a heater and that’s what happened.

The outfielder got the ball back, and has one from his first hit, and plans to let his mom and dad who gets which one. If Field gets demoted in favor of Hu, at least he will do so on a high note.

About Span’s inside the park homer…

The New What Next

If the series finale can be played today, Matt Andriese will toe the rubber opposite of RHP Rick Porcello.

Porcello allowed three runs on three hits and three walks Tuesday, while striking out nine over seven innings in Toronto. Porcello has now posted five quality starts in five outings, who gave up all three runs in the second inning without the benefit of any hard contact; the right-hander was nicked by a walk, a weak dribbler that found the outfield grass, an infield single, a wild pitch and two fielders’ choices. Beyond that, Porcello was practically spotless, retiring 16 of the final 18 batters faced. The right-hander gave up three runs on six hits over 7-1/3 innings against the Rays on April 7, after allowing just one-run over 5-1/3 innings against them on March 30. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-7, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (5-16), Carlos Gomez (3-9, 2B, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (12-43, 5 2B, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (16-42, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Joey Wendle (2-7, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part three

Rays 4/29/18 Starting Lineup

Span LF
Cron DH
Wendle 2B
Miller 1B
Robertson 3B
Smith CF
Hechavarria SS
Sucre C
Field RF
Andriesse RHP

Noteworthiness

— Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rays are the first team to have an eight-game winning streak and an eight-game losing streak in same season before May 1, since the 1985 Minnesota Twins.

— Fun with numbers:

The Rays jettisoned their playoff odds from approximately 7% two-weeks ago to 22.6% Sunday morning, according to Baseball Prospectus.

(Screen Grab: Baseball Prospectus)

As for FanGraphs, which tends to be a lot more pessimistic on a postseason berth for Tampa Bay, the Rays are finally in whole number territory, with a 2.7% chance of playing past October.

(Screen Grab: FanGraphs)

I know I know, it’s way too early to even consider whether one should save money toward the purchase playoff tickets or not. However, this is a breath of fresh air considering all the doom and gloom scenarios that peppered the Twitter-sphere over the first few weeks of the season.

PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays could contend in 2018

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Kevin Kiermaier is projected to perform to a 4.0 WARp in 2018. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2018 season. In spite of the trade that sent the face of the franchise to San Francisco, the projection system forecasts the Rays as the fifth best team in the American League, and third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 84 wins to 78 losses. If the Rays were to end as the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

How will the Rays fare in the East? Here are a few highlights, while a full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

Projected 2018 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 724 runs are 54 more than they plated in 2017, yet just 10 runs better than the Tigers, who are projected to end their 2018 campaign with a 68-94 record. The projected .250 BA/.309 OBP/.397 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .245 BA/.317 OBP/.422 SLG line collected by the team last season ― albeit with much less pop.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fifth fewest runs in the American League at 696 ― 14 more than the Red Sox, the Rays closest competitor in that category.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .255 is 10 points higher than last season’s batting average, while their projected .397 SLG is the lowest in the AL East.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Christian Arroyo (not Matt Duffy) spending the most time at third base, while Duffy is projected to slot in at at second base, and Brad Miller at first. Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, and Justin Williams are all projected to be promoted in 2018, however, don’t expect them to break camp with the Rays.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Wilson Ramos will to get the majority of playing time over Jesus Sucre (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Miller is projected to post a 1.1 WARp at first, although he is expected to bounce back from an abysmal 2017 to the tune of a .240 BA/.318 OBP/.407 SLG/.262 Tav.
  • Unsurprisingly, PECOTA likes Kevin Kiermaier for a 4.0 WARp in center — the strongest position for the Rays.
  • PECOTA likes Adeiny Hechavarria at short, although he is projected to post just a 0.5 WARp. Compare that to Matt Duffy, who is projected to perform to a 1.6 WARp even though he’ll only spend 10% of his playing time there.
  • Denard Span is projected to get 55% of the reps in left field, followed by newcomer Mallux Smith with 25% of the reps. The tandem is projected to combine for a 1.0 WARp.
  • Corey Dickerson’s .274 TAv that is higher than anyone else on the team, and because of it he looks to receive the most playing time at DH.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (176 IP, 3.5 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (150 IP, 0.6 WARp), Blake Snell (127 IP, 1.8 WARp), Jacob Faria (114 IP, 1.3 WARp), and Brent Honeywell (95 IP, 1.0 WARp). Nathan Eovaldi, Jose De Leon, Austin Pruitt and Ryan Yarbrough also may factor into the rotation in some capacity.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Alex Colome (closer); Dan Jennings and Ryne Stanek (setup); Chaz Roe, Andrew Kittredge, Jose Alvarado and Chih-Wei Hu (middle-relief); Matt Andriese (long relief).

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 18.5 runs above average — fourth best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (22.8 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -14.6 FRAA.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

I know this offseason has been marred with rumors of a rebuild, yet the Rays could still end the season playing relevant ball in October. A projected 84 win season — 90 or 78, thanks a six game margin of error — has got to make those of us who feel like we’ve been kicked in the guts at least optimistic for something better than what most have predicted.

Tampa Bay Rays 9/27/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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Maybe next year, Evan. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After dropping the first game of a three-game series with the Yankees, 6-1 — while also officially falling out of playoff contention — the Tampa Bay Rays now focus their sights on ending the season with a .500 record. In order for them to do so, the Rays will have to win their remaining five games of the season, starting tonight in New York.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese (5-4, 4.62 ERA, 4.89 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Luis Severino (13-6, 3.03 ERA, 3.08 FIP).

Andriese is looking to avoid his fourth loss in five starts. After performing to a 3.45 ERA in his first 11 turns, Andriese has posted an unsightly 8.47 ERA, and has allowed five homers in four starts since returning from the DL. He, however, turned in a solid six-inning, three-run start on Thursday, blanking the Orioles from the second inning on after allowing three first inning runs.

Severino was chased after he allowed three runs on five hits over three-innings of work. Be that as it may, he has a chance to climb up the Yankees’ single-season strikeout leaderboard against the Rays on Wednesday. He enters play with 221 strikeouts (fifth most) with a chance to catch David Cone (222) and CC Sabathia (230). Severino has allowed three-runs on 10 hits and four walks over 12 innings of work this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2, HR, RBI), Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Logan Morrison (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (1-1), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/27/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Dickerson LF
Hechavarria SS
Miller 2B
Sucre C
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

— Thank you for everything, Alex! Rays skipper Kevin Cash confirmed that Alex Cobb indeed will skip his final turn of the season on Thursday. The right-hander made a career best 179-1/3 innings and 29 starts this season, and is slated to be a free agent. We will have a proper goodbye following the season.

— Remember last week when we wrote that Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays?

Rays 9/22/17 starting lineup and pregame notes; Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays

As it turns out, a certain other “local” blog has gone out of its way to project its own (contrary) narrative. Don’t get me wrong, this site is great and informative, however, what should be acknowledged is that taxpayer’s opinions are their own regardless whether a survey is scientific or not. Contrary to popular belief, and I know this may be shocking, but maybe — just maybe — the taxpayers of Tampa find things like infrastructure and mass transit to be more important, than something like a new baseball stadium … especially when those citizens are still paying off Raymond James Stadium, as well as other facilities.