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The New What Next: Rays vs Tigers part two — a series preview

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Much to Jon Heyman’s chagrin, the Rays walloped the New York Mets on Sunday, 9-0. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home for a brief, three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Monday, before they hit the road once again ahead of the All-Star Break. Tampa Bay most recently took two of three from the Mets, while Detroit split a four-game set with the Rangers.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

After starting the series against the Mets on a rather frigid note, the Rays’ offense showed signs of life in the series finale — hammering New York for nine runs on nine hits (including three home runs). Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Kittredge held the Mets to just two hits and no runs, allowing the Rays to earn their league leading eighth shutout in the last 38 games.

Moving runners was a monumental task for Tampa Bay in the first two games, as the Rays went 2-for-25 with runners in scoring position. However, they inevitably showed they could both hit home runs and play small ball — going 5-for-13 (.385 batting average) wRISP the rest of the way.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

The Rays should be able to continue that bourgeoning success against a Tigers’ pitching staff that has fared poorly on the road — performing to an 4.71 ERA/4.56 FIP/.258 opponents BA/.337 opponents OBP/.438 opponents SLG/.334 opponents wOBA over 372-1/3 innings away from Comerica Park. Furthermore, the Rays have won 11 of their last 15 (eight vs. contending teams) and allowed just 31 runs — 17 fewer than any other team.

In the end, there is a score to be settled with the Tigers, as Tampa Bay dropped two of three in Detroit, between April 30 and May 2, after picking up a win in the lead game. Hopefully all facets of the Rays will be up for the task.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on a rehabilitated Chris Archer (3-4, 4.24 ERA), and likely Matt Andriese (1-3, 3.71 ERA) and Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 3.75 ERA) over the next three days. I will update this piece when that situation becomes clear. Ron Gardenhire will counter with Francisco Liriano (3-5, 4.03 ERA), Matthew Boyd (4-7, 4.58 ERA) and Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 3.51 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Chris Archer will return from the disabled list on Monday, although he will likely be limited to about 75 pitches. The 29-year-old has been on the DL since June 5 with an abdominal strain, posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 76-1/3 innings prior to the injury. Archer appeared to be turning a corner though, firing off five quality starts over a stretch of seven appearances that was bookended by an injury marred, five inning outing against Seattle on the fifth of June. Over his last four starts against the Angels, Red Sox, Athletics and the Mariners, Archer allowed a total of three runs, while sporting a 2.18 K/BB. The secret to his success? He kept the ball inside the park.

Francisco Liriano took a loss Wednesday even though he allowed three runs on five hits, but five walks, across six innings. He struck out five. The five walks marked a new season high, and the southpaw is lucky that he only allowed three runs to cross the plate with so much traffic on the base paths. Liriano has posted back-to-back quality starts, yet he has taken a loss each time thanks to a lackluster offense that scored just two runs or fewer in each of Liriano’s last two outings. Despite that, he is 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 15 starts against the Rays, and 1-2 with a 9.73 ERA in seven games (five starts) at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (3-6), Carlos Gomez (11-24, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Daniel Robertson (2-6, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Mallex Smith (1-3), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

Matt Andriese fired two scoreless innings on Wednesday, allowing a hit and two walks. He recorded three strikeouts and threw 36 pitches overall. Andriese has become one of the most flexible options out of the Rays ‘pen, given his extensive starting and relief experience. After a rocky June (6.39 ERA over 12-2/3 innings), Andriese has posted four scoreless innings across a pair of appearances.

Matthew Boyd allowed seven runs (six earned) on seven hits over four innings in his last start against the Rangers. He struck out three. Boyd didn’t allow a run in the first inning, yet allowed multiple runs thereafter before receiving the early hook in the fourth. The key blows were a pair of two-run homers by Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman. Boyd has been hit or miss since limiting the Rays to one run on May 1, allowing five or more earned runs three times over his past four starts — pushing his ERA up from 3.23 before his rough stretch to 4.58. He is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Johnny Field (1-2), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (1-1), Wilson Ramos (1-2, BB), Mallex Smith (1-3)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on four hits and one walk over three innings of a no-decision against Miami on Tuesday. He struck out three. Yarbrough ran into a bit of trouble in the second inning, loading the bases on an IBB before the opposing pitcher, Trevor Richards, laced a two-run single to center. Even though he limited the damage and breezed through the third inning with ease, Yarbrough didn’t come back out for the fourth despite tossing 6-1/3 innings and 90 pitches in his previous outing. He has allowed four runs total in his last 15-1/3 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann allowed one run on four hits over eight innings in a win against Texas on Friday. He fanned a season-high 11 batters. After serving up a leadoff homer to Shin-Soo Choo, Zimmermann was all but untouchable the rest of the way, throwing 67 of 96 pitches for strikes including 15 swinging strikes (70% strike rate, 22% whiff rate). Zimmermann has been outstanding since returning from the DL in mid-June, posting a 1.80 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and a 24 K/BB over four starts (25 innings). He two-hit the Rays in a seven inning scoreless outing on April 30, and is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-3), Kevin Kiermaier (3-7, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Another unfortunate break for the Rays, RHP Chaz Roe has been placed on the 10-Day DL with a torn meniscus in his left knee, requiring arthroscopic surgery. He is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks.

(Screen Grab Credit: FoxSportsSun)

According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the injury means further changes to the already amorphous bullpen roles, with rookie Diego Castillo likely replacing Roe in facing the toughest right-handed hitters in late-inning situations, and others, including Jaime Schultz, who was called up Sunday, taking on more challenging work.

We’re going to have a bunch of guys probably moving now, manager Kevin Cash said.

Roe had a 3.60 ERA in 41 appearances overall and hadn’t allowed an earned run in 17 of his previous 18 games before Friday.

It’s definitely disappointing, Roe said. I’d been feeling great on the mound and to end it like this right now kind of sucks. But I thought this was the best time to get it done, pitching well right now and hopefully come back even better.

To fill Roe’s spot on the 25-man roster, the team has recalled RHP Jaime Schultz from Triple-A Durham.

— 1B/DH CJ Cron is starting to get toasty, slashing .438 BA/.500 OBP/.813 SLG/1.313 OPS/.375 wOBA in the month of July, with seven hits (four for extra bases) and four runs batted in. He’s struck out just twice in 18 July plate appearances.

The New What Next: Rays vs Tigers — a series preview

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Blake Snell will get the start in the series finale against the Tigers on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

Riding a huge wave of momentum, born of an 8-2 stretch of play, the Tampa Bay Rays head to Detroit on Monday to start a three-game series against the Tigers. Both teams are similar, in that they got off to terrible starts, but have had a nice stretch to get back to respectability.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays have been fantastic, going from 4-13 all the way to 12-14 following an eight-game winning streak that was snapped on Sunday. And while they looked to be in a dogfight for the basement position in the AL East along with Baltimore, their recent spate of play suggests that they might actually be able to live up to their preseason projections.

The Tigers offense has gone dormant in recent days, getting blanked 1-0 on Thursday and then again, 6-0 on Friday night.  The loss dropped them to 11-15, although that is better than what most people expected.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Detroit was handed what could be a major blow on Sunday, when Miguel Cabrera was pulled from the game against the Orioles having been diagnosed with left biceps spasms. There have been no updates at this time regarding the severity of the injury.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Jacob Faria (1-1, 6.33 ERA), Chris Archer (2-1, 6.61 ERA), and Blake Snell (4-1, 2.25 ERA) over the life of the series. Ron Gardenhire will counter with Jordan Zimmerman (1-0, 7.91 ERA), Matthew Boyd (0-2, 2.74 ERA), and Michael Fulmer (1-2, 2.76 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Faria goes for the Rays

Jacob Faria allowed four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out five over 4-1/3 innings against the Orioles on Wednesday. He did not factor into the decision.

Faria, essentially, matched Cobb’s mediocrity pitch-for-pitch, allowing a foreboding lead-off walk in the home half of the first, which was converted into a run on a two-out double into the left-field corner by Adam Jones. It certainly didn’t help that the ball got stuck in the padding at the bottom of the wall, forcing Denard Span to literally dig it out.

Faria continued to struggle in the second inning, when the Orioles took a two-run lead. Pedro Alvarez worked a one out walk before Anthony Santander and Jace Peterson went back-to-back with doubles, giving Baltimore a 3-1 advantage. That would be the last hit Faria would allow until Chance Sisco tee’d off on the hurler in the home half of the fifth, chasing him in favor of the bullpen.

Jordan Zimmeran looks like he’s on his last legs at just 31 years of age. He’s getting shelled just about every time out, and has been hit hard in all five appearances (four starts). Moreover, he’s given up at least three earned runs in each of his four starts, with a few being much worse.

Zimmerman has lasted just 18-2/3 innings over his four starts and allowed 17 earned runs, leading to a bloated 7.91 ERA. Batters are hitting .333 against him and his WHIP is 1.71. If the Rays are looking to set a tone early, Zimmerman is the perfect contender to do that against. Key Matchups: None to speak of.

Chris Archer allowed four earned runs on 11 hits while walking one and striking out seven over 5-1/3 innings on Thursday, allowing him to earn the win against the Orioles. Still, it was another rough outing for the Rays ace as he continued his undesirable streak of allowing a home run in each of his starts. On the positive side, he did fan seven and coaxed 19 whiffs, showing that he still has plenty of deception in his stuff. Both his BABIP and strand rate indicate that things should improve over time, although his current stat-line remains unsightly.

Matthew Boyd gave up four runs on seven hits and three walks with three strikeouts over just 3-2/3 innings to take a loss Wednesday against the Pirates. Boyd finally showed weakness after opening the season with three fantastic outings. He was undone by a three-run homer off the bat of Jose Osuna in the second inning, and struggled with his control all day. Boyd threw just 12 first-pitch strikes to 21 hitters and walked three batters over the span of his outing, needing 94 pitches to get just 11 outs. This season he has relied primarily on his 90 mph four-seam fastball and an 80 mph slider, while also mixing in a 73 mph curveball with good glove side movement, a 78 mph changeup, and an 88 mph sinker. He has started just one game against the Rays since 2015, and is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA after he allowed three runs on three hits and two walks over five innings. Key Matchups: Rob Refsnyder (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Blake Snell allowed just two runs on five hits and a walk over 7-1/3 innings of a win over the Red Sox on Friday. He struck out nine. It was the first time in the southpaw’s Major League career that he’s pitched into the eighth inning, as Snell threw 68 of 104 pitches for strikes, and generated 17 whiffs in his impressive performance. The 25-year-old has now produced four consecutive quality starts and sits at a 2.25 ERA on the season. His .286 BABIP suggests he could be due for a slight change of luck.

Michael Fulmer tossed six scoreless frames against the Pirates on Thursday, but did not factor into the decision. He scattered four hits and a walk while striking out nine. Fulmer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season and now has a 2.76 ERA, yet he has just one win to show for it, as the Tigers have not been providing him much run support. This season Fulmer has relied upon his 95 mph sinker and an 86 mph slider, while also mixing in an 88 mph changeup, a 96 mph four seam fastball, and an 86 mph curveball. He is 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA in four starts against the Rays (26-2/3 innings), having allowed seven total runs on 18 hits including two homers. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-8, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-1, 2B, BB), Daniel Robertson (2-3, 2 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3)

Noteworthiness

— Lots of big crowds at Fenway for the weekend series against the Red Sox. Totally no empty seats or sections at all!

(Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The New What Next: Rays vs Le Tigre — a series preview

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Logan Morrison and the Rays are set to start a four-game series against the Tigers in Detroit on Thursday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On the heels of a series split against the Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays look to avenge their 7-6 loss on Wednesday, when they start a four-game series against the sub .500 Tigers, in Detroit. Le Tigre has dropped two straight, and four of their last five, while the Rays have won six of their last 10.

(Stats: ESPN)

The two faced one another earlier this season, from April 19-21, in a series that was punctuated by defensive lapses in the outfield by Detroit. The Rays outscored the Tigers 21-9 in the three-game sweep at the Trop. In spite of the peripherals, their Tigers — especially Miguel Cabrera — are experiencing a power outage of sorts. Cabrera’s last homer came on May 20, and he’s gone 22 full games (95 plate appearances) without a long ball. Be that as it may, he’s hit .308 (24-78) over that span.

The Rays will look to do two things over the next four days: keep Detroit in the ball-park, and score first. The Tigers are 29-18 when they hit a homer, and 1-16 when they don’t. Furthermore, Le Tigre is 0-25 when they trail after the sixth inning, 1-25 when they trail after the seventh, and 0-28 when they trail after the eighth.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will lean on Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA, 4.34 FIP), Erasmo Ramirez (3-1, 4.20 ERA, 3.73 FIP), Chris Archer (4-4, 3.80 ERA, 2.86 FIP), and Jacob Faria (2-0, 1.42 ERA, 1.78 FIP) this weekend. Brad Ausmus will counter with Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.68 ERA, 4.58 FIP), Daniel Norris (3-4, 4.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP), Michael Fulmer (6-4, 3.40 ERA, 3.03 FIP), and Buck Farmer (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 2.80 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb relied heavily on a strong changeup to great effect in his last start, limiting the Athletics to one run and four hits over six innings. He got the win and improved to 5-5. Cobb’s overall 4.29 ERA would look much better if not for a miserable 5 IP/9 R/14 H start against the Mariners on June 3. He is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA against the Tigers.

Verlander, gave up three runs over five innings in his last turn. It was the right-handers first start since leaving his June 4 outing with groin tightness. Verlander has had an up and down season, due in part to his seeming inability to coax swings and misses. From last season to this, opponents’ chase rates have dropped from 16.6% to 13.7%, while their SwStr% (within the zone) have declined from 17.7% to 14 %. Be that as it may, Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Evan Longoria (8-30, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Michael Martinez (2-8, BB), Derek Norris (3-7, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6)

Ramirez allowed 10 hits and a walk over 5-1/3 innings, yet held Oakland to three runs in his last start. He beat the Tigers in the final game of the above mentioned three-game sweep, allowing just two hits and one run.

Norris hasn’t completed the fifth inning in three of his 12 starts, including his last start against Tampa Bay on April 20. He has allowed an equal number hits to the number of strikeouts he’s collected over his previous four starts, with a 3.63 ERA over that span. It appears that he has started to fix things, as his self inflicted wounds (and/or the wounds inflicted by others) don’t appear to be effecting him as much. Take a recent start against the BoSox for example, when he worked around a third inning misplay in centerfield which allowed the tying and go-ahead runs to move into scoring position with one out. He limited the damage and work out of the jam. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2), Evan Longoria (4-7, 2B, RBI, BB), Michael Martinez (1-1, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-8, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2)

Archer allowed four earned runs over six innings of a no-decision in his last start against Oakland. He fanned eight. The irony? His last start against the Tigers had a similar outcome: 5 IP/4 R/9 K. The luck dragons have nipped at Archer’s heels over his last few starts — a .370 BABIP speaks to that — so it’s reasonable to assume he’s due a bounce back.

Fulmer has been shelved since June 8 after an MRI revealed inflammation in the bursa of his right shoulder. It’s no coincidence that he allowed five runs in back-to-back starts for the first time in his career. Fulmer took the loss in his last start against the Rays after he allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks over six innings. Pitching Matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, HR, 2 RBI), Derek Norris (2-3, RBI)

Faria was impressive yet again in his last start. His stuff, especially his changeup, was electric, and he fooled Toronto’s hitters left and right. He was poised and efficient, allowing just three hits on 70 pitches over five innings — calmly taking a shutout into the seventh against the power-laden Blue Jays.

Farmer had a 13-inning scoreless streak snapped in his last start, when he allowed six runs in 2-1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks. This season, the 26 year-old right-hander has relied upon a whiffy 92 MPH four-seam fastball and 85 MPH changeup, while also mixing in a 91 MPH sinker with arm-side run, a 79 MPH 12-6 slider, and a swing and miss 81 MPH cutter. Farmer faced the Rays once in relief in 2015, allowing a home run in one-third of an inning.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Tigers — a series preview

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At least Steven Souza Jr. is faring well. He is batting .385 wRISP and is the team co-leader in RBI with 10. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays limp back into St. Petersburg, where they are set to open a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday. Tampa Bay went 1-6 on the east coast jaunt up to Boston and back, with the bullpen and defense thwarting the team from maintaining any momentum accrued from the 5-2 start.

(Stats: ESPN)

It would be incredibly easy to blame the offense for the recent spade of failure, after all (and for example) the number three and four hitters — Evan Longoria and Brad Miller — combined to go 10-48 with 20 strikeouts, and 3-16 with nine strikeouts with runners in scoring position during the last seven games. Longoria also grounded into three double plays over the course of the four-game set against the Red Sox, which certainly didn’t help. But when you consider that the Rays averaged almost five runs per game against Boston, something else seems to be afoot — namely a spotty bullpen and defense.

Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay’s relievers have pitched to an 0-4 record, and a 7.91 ERA/6.03 FIP. What’s more, in two of the last three games, the bullpen has been on the hook for the come-from-behind victories by the Red Sox.

To be fair, the defense up the middle has’t helped the cause.

Sure, it is great that the Rays have collected +10 defensive runs saved (DRS) so far. Yet aside from Evan Longoria and Daniel Robertson, none of the infielders have pitched in…at least as it relates to DRS. In fact Tim Beckham has actually cost the Rays a run thus far.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) painted a picture for how a sloppy defense can affect the team:

Brad Miller making an inexplicable error on a routine play at second base in the second, and nobody doing anything to keep it from costing them the game.

The gaffe cost Blake Snell and Tampa Bay three earned runs, and the loss, in the series finale with Boston on Monday.

Frustrating loss, Kevin Cash said. We talk about for us to have our best chance, we’ve got to play clean baseball. You could probably go back to a couple plays on this road trip that it just didn’t go our way. And it was very tough for us to overcome.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Enter the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers, who have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games, while also winning back-to-back-to-back series’ against the Red Sox, Twins and Indians. The Tigers are, well…the Tigers — a team with borderline-to-great ISO and wOBA ratings, a team that possesses solid defense, but one that strikes out often; although not as often as Tampa Bay. Their Achilles heel appears to be the relief staff that has hurled a 1-0 record with a 6.85 ERA/5.53 FIP over the last week.

Kevin Cash will throw Matt Andriese (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 4.93 FIP), Chris Archer (2-0, 2.21 ERA, 2.04 FIP), and Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 3.72 ERA, 4.90 FIP) over the span of the three-game set. Brad Ausmus will counter with Michael Fulmer (1-0, 2.25 ERA, 3.43 FIP), Jordan Zimmermann (1-1. 5.06 ERA, 4.99 FIP), and Daniel Norris (1-0, 2.19 ERA, 3.50 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Andriese bounced back from a rough series debut to allow just one run on five hits and three walks through six innings on Thursday. He struck out five batters.

Fulmer is picking up where he left off last season, sporting a 0.92 WHIP with 11 strikeouts through 13 innings of work. He allowed three runs on four hits and a walk, while striking out seven batters over six innings Wednesday. The right hander tends to lean on a fly ball heavy 95 mph four-seam fastball and a 90 mph slider, while also mixing in a hard 89 mph changeup and a 95 mph sinker. Key matchups: Nope

Archer fanned five and gave up one earned run on six hits and two walks over 5-2/3 innings of the 10-5 win over the Red Sox on Friday. Archer fired 102 pitches across his start, and didn’t collect as many whiffs as usual — notching a modest nine swinging strikes. He, however, was able to limit the damage to just an RBI single in the sixth.

Zimmerman allowed five runs on four hits, while issuing five free passes over 4-2/3 innings on Thursday. After starting the game with a pair of scoreless frames, things spiraled out of control for Zimmerman shortly after. The right-hander said some of his struggles had to do with gripping the baseball. Zimmerman most often relies upon a 92 mph fly ball inducing four-seam Fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph slider, a whiffy 81 mph curveball and an 81 mph circle change. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (1-3), Corey Dickerson (4-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Evan Longoria (3-10, BB), Derek Norris (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (3-5, HR, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (5-9, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Ramirez will enter the rotation and start Thursday’s game in place of Jake Odorizzi, who has been placed on the 10-day DL.

Norris threw six scoreless innings Friday, allowing just two hits but issuing four walks while striking out five in a win over the Indians. Norris relies heavily upon a 94 mph worm-buring four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a hard 87 mph slider, a whiffy 86 mph changeup and a 77 mph swing-and-miss curveball. Key matchup: Evan Longoria (3-4, 2B, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— We should see the return/debut of Colby Rasmus at some point during this six-game homestand.

— Per Topkin, the Rays struck out 11 more times Monday, making it 40 for the past three games and in double digits for six of the seven games on the trip. Overall, they lead the majors with 150.

— To better know Daniel Norris; I still love this story.

Rays to miss Miggy for some of the series? DRaysBay wrote about the prospect of that in their series preview:

Meanwhile, the big bats are starting to wake up. Miguel Cabrera was hitting .133/.278/.233 through the team’s first nine games, but had five hits (including a home run) in the weekend series against the Indians. Luckily for the Rays, Cabrera tweaked his lower back late in the Sunday finale and will likely sit out at least one game in this series.

The New What Next: Rays vs Le Tigre, part two — a series preview

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In his first swing back from the disabled list, Brandon Guyer bashed a 420 foot solo shot into left center field seats. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

In his first swing back from the disabled list, Brandon Guyer bashed a 420 foot solo shot into left center field seats. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a string of 11 straight losses, the Rays took two-of-three from the Red Sox, earning their first series win since June 14 – 16 (vs. Seattle). They also snapped a streak of 13 consecutive games where Tampa Bay allowed five or more runs. Next on the docket, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Detroit Tigers into Tropicana Field for a four game series, starting Thursday.

The Tigers are surging on the heels of a 6-3 homestand, this in spite of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians. They are set to face a ball-club in the midst of an 11-game homestand — a ball-club in dire need of more consistent play and success at the Trop, as the Rays try to scratch and claw their way back to the .500 mark.

And while the series win against Boston was an excellent step forward, the Rays will have to play clean baseball if they hope to further their ambitions of playing relevant baseball into the fall.

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 6.51.57 PM

I know what you’re thinking, the Rays enter the series 11 games under .500, with 11 games left until the All-Star Break. The potential for a playoff run is unrealistic at best.

To you I posit this: in order to be viewed as something more than a team destined for a massive sell off at the trade deadline, the Rays need to hover around the .500 mark going into the break, thus putting themselves into a position to make a run in the second-half of the season. I highly doubt they’ll win the next 11 consecutive games, but it is conceivable for Tampa Bay to string together at least eight wins — taking three-of-four from both the Tigers and Angels, and two-of-three from Boston — and end the first-half of the season with a 41-47 record, within striking distance of the .500 mark.

Screen Shot 2016-06-30 at 8.16.31 AM

The Rays and Tigers already faced one another three times this season at Comerica Park. Tampa Bay won the first game of that series, extending what was then a season-long, four-game winning streak, however, the Tigers won the last two games of the set. If you recall, that was the ill-fated series in which Kevin Kiermaier fractured his left-hand on a diving play.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.93 ERA), Drew Smyly (2-8, 5.32 ERA), Blake Snell (1-2, 4.11 ERA), and Chris Archer (4-11, 4.76 ERA) over the span of the series. Brad Ausmus will counter with Jordan Zimmermann (9-4, 3.81 ERA), Michael Fulmer (7-2, 2.40 ERA), Justin Verlander (7-6, 4.30 ERA), and Mike Pelfrey (2-7, 5.02 ERA).

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 6.50.52 PM

Rays series starters

Odorizzi took a no-decision on Saturday after he allowed five runs on eight hits (including three homers) over six innings. He struck out and walked one. The Rays took an early four-run lead, yet Odorizzi left with just a one-run cushion after six frames. The long ball has hampered Odorizzi this season. Since May 13, he’s allowed 12 homers in 48-2/3 innings, giving him a 2.22 HR/9 rate over the last nine starts (3.27 HR/9 over the last 14 days). Be that as it may, Odorizzi maintains a respectable 3.93 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 89-1/3 innings of work.

Smyly was tagged for eight runs on 10 hits (including three home runs) and a walk over five innings on Sunday. He struck out six. He’s still whiffing batters with the best of them — Smyly generated 17 swinging strikes among his 90 pitches — although he’s now given up at least one home run in seven straight starts, and 19 home runs total in 89-2/3 innings on the season for an ugly 1.91 HR/9 (2.41 HR/9 over the last 14 days).

Snell collected his first Major League win on Monday, despite allowing four earned runs over just 5-1/3 innings of work. He allowed eight hits and four walks, while striking out four. The four runs allowed were the most he’s surrendered in any of his four big league starts. The culprit: too many free passes, giving him a bloated 5.87 BB/9 and an ugly 1.77 WHIP.

Archer dropped his fourth consecutive start in Tuesday’s contest opposite of the Red Sox. He threw 6-1/3 innings and allowed four runs on seven hits and four walks while fanning nine. Once an All-Star, Archer now leads the big leagues in losses, as he continues to struggle with suppressing batters.

Tigers series starters

Zimmerman allowed seven runs on nine hits while striking out three in just 3-2/3 innings of work on Friday. The righty relinquished a pair of runs in the second inning before the bottom fell out in the fourth, when Zimmermann allowed five runs without completing the frame. Since May 11, when he owned a 1.50 ERA, he’s allowed 30 earned runs over his last 41-2/3 innings, raising his ERA to 3.81. He allowed two runs on five hits (including a homer) the last time he faced the Rays. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Curt Casali (2-4, HR, RBI, BB), Corey Dickerson (2-3, HR, 2B, RBI), Brandon Guyer (1-4), Evan Longoria (2-8)

Fulmer, who was knocked out of his last start after just 4-1/3 innings due to dizziness, set a team rookie record for most consecutive scoreless innings at 33-1/3, although he has allowed an earned run in each of his last two starts. Fulmer stymied the Rays on May 21, allowing just one earned run on four scattered hits over seven innings of work, striking out 11 while walking one. Key matchups: Oswaldo Arcia (1-2), Brandon Guyer (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (1-3, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (1-3, 2B)

Verlander got hammered to the tune of eight runs on nine hits (including four homers) and two walks on Sunday, while striking out five over 4-2/3 innings. Verlander looked good the first time through the order, but then he gave up a couple runs in the fourth inning and four homers in the fifth before getting chased. It’s the first time Verlander has allowed that many homers in a game (much less a single inning) since September 2007. Verlander is 7-3 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 starts against the Rays. In one Tropicana Field start last season, the righty held Tampa Bay to one run on four hits over eight innings, striking out 10. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-3), Desmond Jennings (4-11, 3B, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-28, HR, 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB)

Pelfrey gave up four runs on 12 hits over 5-1/3 innings on Tuesday against Miami. He walked and struck out one. The righty wasn’t as bad as he’s been at other points in the season, however, he certainly wasn’t good either. Opponents are hitting .337 against Palfrey (including .417 over the last 14 days) and his 1.74 WHIP is the worst among qualifying starters. Pelfrey relies primarily on 93 mph sinker with slight arm side run, while also mixing in an 82 mph splitter with depth, and an 85 mph slider. Key matchups: Oswaldo Arcia (1-2, RBI), Desmond Jennings (2-2, BB), Evan Longoria (4-8, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller hit his 10th homer on Tuesday, which is the most in club history for a shortstop before the All-Star break. His next milestone is the Rays’ shortstop single-season record of 15.

— Both Tampa Bay and Detroit have hit over 100 home runs this season, but the Tigers have five players with at least 12 homers, and the Rays have two.

— Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about Cash’s sequencing of the Alex Colome-less bullpen, saying,

With their first lead to protect without injured RH closer Alex Colome, the Rays used RHP Erasmo Ramirez in the eighth and LHP Xavier Cedeno in the ninth. Cash said that sequencing was a product of the Boston lineup, and they will continue to mix and match as needed.

Colome is expected to return from the DL on Monday.

— DH/OF Corey Dickerson said the sore left thumb that sidelined him for the past four games is better, and he hopes to be back in the lineup on Thursday.

— Alex Cobb and Chase Whitley (Tommy John surgeries) are scheduled to throw live batting practice on Thursday. OF Steven Souza Jr. (hip strain) may hit against them ahead of his pending rehab assignment.

— To my point above, Cash thinks the Rays can still make a run and get back in this thing.

— Cash said OF Steven Souza Jr. (left hip strain) will start his rehabilitation stint Friday at Class-A Charlotte. It could be a quick turnaround if his timing returns quickly.