X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

LBWMF: Rays fall in disappointing 4-3 loss to the Rangers

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The Tampa Bay Rays kicked off their six-game home stand with a stinging 4-3 loss to the Texas Rangers. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

With the exception of a ninth inning, two-run homer, Alex Cobb put together his best start of the season Friday night — working into the ninth inning for the first time this season. Yet the Texas Rangers rallied late against both Cobb and Brad Boxberger, and beat the Rays 4–3.

The Rangers scored the first run of the night when Elvis Andrus hit a first inning solo-shot on a fastball that Cobb left over the middle of the plate, and not high enough to miss the bat.

But Brad Miller got the Rays on the board when did the same thing with two outs in the fourth inning off Yu Darvish.

Through the front five innings, each starter matched the other — almost pitch-for-pitch — and allowed just one run on two hits. While Darvish challenged the Rays within the zone, dominating them to the tune of 12 strikeouts, Cobb pitched to contact and got more than his fair share of weak contact. But both hurlers were ultimately  susceptible to the long ball — a fact that became evident in the sixth, eighth, and ninth innings.

Tampa Bay took the lead in the sixth inning when Corey Dickerson crushed a 94 mph, center cut fastball off the batter’s eye.

It was the 18th homer for Corey “the pride of Old North East St. Petersburg” Dickerson, and his first since June 24th.

Then in the eighth, Mallex Smith hit an opposite field homer off Darvish, ending a 1-for-24 stretch, for a two-run lead.

It was Smith’s second homer of the season.

With 95 pitches under his belt, Cobb retook the mound in the ninth inning. Joey Gallo welcomed Cobb rather rudely with a double to right-center on the first pitch he saw, before Shin-Soo Choo hit a first pitch opposite field homer to left, to tie the game at three.

That chased Cobb, who allowed three runs on five hits, while striking out four without walking a batter. Up to that point, Cobb had pitched very well, and he leaned very heavily on his split/change. Of the 99 total pitches pitches thrown, 46 were split/changeups, 33 were fastballs, and 24 were curveballs. 34 of Cobb’s split/changeups went for strikes (74%, 26 swings, 9 swings-and-misses).

Alex Colome took the mound in relief and retired the next two batters before Adrian Beltre singled to right. Mike Napoli then worked a walk on a 3-2 pitch after falling behind in the count 0-2. That brought Rougned Odor to the plate. The  heavy fisted lefty grounded out to second, keeping the game tied.

Brad Boxberger took over in the 10th inning and quickly walked Jonathan Lucroy on four pitches — the dreaded leadoff walk. Delino DeShields Jr. pinch-ran for Lucroy, and was sacrificed to second by Carlos Gomez. Gallo was next, and flew out to right which moved DeShields up to third. After Choo was intentionally walked, Andrus reached on a well-struck infield hit which drove in the go ahead run. The hit and the run were this first of each that Boxberger had given up since returning from the DL.

Alex Claudio, who threw a perfect ninth inning, allowed a leadoff single to pinch-hitter Steven Souza Jr. to start the 10th. However, Hechavarria bunted into a double play on a ball in front of the plate, and pinch-hitter Trevor Plouffe lined to left, ending the game with a bitter taste in the mouths of the 24,461 fans in attendance last night.

The New What Next

Game two of the series takes place tonight with Chris Archer (7-5, 3.91 ERA, 3.12 FIP) on the mound. He’ll start opposite Andrew Cashner (4-8, 3.58 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

Archer struggled Sunday, yet he limited the Angels to just two runs over six innings — picking up his fourth consecutive quality start. Even though the right-hander issued no more than three free passes in any of his previous 10 starts, he walked five Angels … although to his credit he was able to pitch around his control problems for the most part. Archer looks to snap a streak of 12 consecutive outings with at least two runs allowed Saturday. He notched a win against the Rangers on May 31, the only time he faced them this season.

Cashner is 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA in his last four starts and 4-5 with a 4.28 ERA in his last nine. The right-hander relies primarily on a 92 mph two-seam sinker and a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup, an 88 mph cutter and an 82 mph curveball; and is 2-6 with a 4.33 ERA in nine starts on the road. This will be his first career start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-4, 2 2B, 1 RBI), Corey Dickerson (2-3, 2B, 3 B, RBI), Brad Miller (2-2, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (3-7, 2B, BB), Shane Peterson (3-5, 2B, 3B, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 7/22/17 Starting Lineup

TBA

Noteworthiness

— Should Cobb have started the ninth?

A question remains: Did Kevin Cash manage with his heart or head last night? In other words, should he have let Cobb attempt to throw a complete game? To his credit, Alex hadn’t allowed a runner past first base since the first inning, and hadn’t thrown less than 60% of strikes in any frame. What’s more, from the third inning through the eighth, the Rangers collected only two hits, both singles. Those alone lead you to believe that the bulldog should have retaken the mound in the ninth. But as Jason Collette (The Process Report) noted, after the homer to Choo, 16% of Cobb’s runs in 2017 have come when he’s been allowed to face hitters a fourth time through the order. The lineup was about to flip over for a fourth time, and Cobb is no stranger to Times Through the Order misfortune.

A quick look at Cobb’s wOBA* through the order show that Cobb, over his career, is very good the first-through-third times through the order, although he falls off a cliff the fourth time through: .305 first, .275 second, .292 third, and .507 the fourth. His numbers in 2017 conform to that trend: .303 first, .286 second, .299 third, and .494 fourth. Friday night was no different.

Collette dug a little deeper and found that Choo, although not traditionally successful on the night against Cobb, saw a good number of pitches and wasn’t fooled by what was thrown his way.

Choo, who as you recall hit the homer, saw a total of 10 pitches from Cobb heading into his ninth inning plate appearance, and had not whiffed on any of them. Rather he made hard contact (but right at Adeiny Hechevarria) to start the game, then softly grounded out the other two times he stepped into the box. Still, contact is contact, and the odds were against Cobb coaxing a strikeout in that particular plate appearance. At most, Cobb could have hoped for a soft grounder that would have allowed the runner to move up to third.

A rested Alex Colome — who has a 12.6% swinging strike rate (compare that to Cobb’s 6.8% SwStr% on the season) — was warming in the ‘pen, and he should have started the frame. In the very least, Cash should have pulled Cobb at the first inkling of trouble … you know, like a line drive double to right on the first pitch of the ninth. The rest, as they say, is history.

Whatever the case, a tough decision had to be made by Cash … one in which there was about a 50/50 chance of success. Unfortunately things did not go as hoped for by Cash, and during a pennant race costly decisions here or there can make or break a postseason berth.

*Stats and figures, courtesy of The Process Report.

LBWMF: A pair of homers power the Rays to a 3-2 victory over the A’s

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The Tampa Bay Rays did just enough to win their 50th game of the season Monday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays did just enough to win their 50th game of the season Monday night, hitting two homers and building a pair of two-run leads, while Jake Odorizzi had arguably his best start of the season. They held on to beat the Athletics, 3–2, allowing them to move within two games of first place in the AL East.


Source: FanGraphs

Odorizzi had a ten day break between starts — a respite that seemingly reinvigorated the right-hander. Odo walked two and struck out five over seven strong innings, allowing just one hit — a one-out solo homer off the bat of Khris Davis in the fourth inning that trimmed the Rays’ lead (at the time) to 2–1.

Odorizzi began his outing in similar fashion to that of his previous starts, by walking Matt Joyce, the first batter of the game. With a man on base, Odorizzi began to pitch out of the stretch … and continued to do so throughout his outing — regardless if there was a man on base or not — in an attempt to simplify his mechanics, and regain some of his command. That strategy looks like it  worked.

Was he dominant? Not really. He relinquished a fair amount of medium-to-hard contact that, luckily, was right at the outfielders. However, he was able to generate a fair amount of weak contact that allowed him to keep his pitch count in order, while also keeping himself out of the dangerous hitters’ counts that he’d been plagued by of late. And much like those who pitched before him — namely Jacob Faria, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, none of which featured their best stuff in their most recent outings — he threw quality strikes throughout to keep Oakland’s bats at bay.

On the offensive side of things, Tampa Bay got on the board first in the second inning when Steven Souza Jr. belted belted a no doubter to left-center — his 19th homer of the season, and his second since the All-Star Break.

The Rays added to that lead in the third inning when Mallex Smith walked with one out, was wild pitched into second, moved to third on Corey Dickerson’s infield hit, then came home on Evan Longoria’s groundout.

Then after Davis’ aforementioned homer to right-center, Longoria answered in the top of the fifth with a solo homer to left, giving the Rays a 3–1 lead.

Longoria, collected two more hits in last night’s ball game, and has been mightily productive over the life of his current 10-game hitting streak, collecting six extra base hits (four doubles, two homers), scoring five runs, and driving in nine.

Tommy Hunter followed Odorizzi with a scoreless eighth, allowing just a two-out walk and extending his scoreless streak to 10 appearances (eight innings of work).

With a two-run cushion, Alex Colome, who blew two of his previous three saves against the Athletics, took the mound to close out the game. MLB Trade Rumors’ favorite trade target, Yonder Alonso, greeted the Rays’ closer rather rudely with a double. Davis followed by grounding out to third before Jed Lowrie successfully moved Alonso 90 feet closer to home when he bounced out to third. Though Colome uncorked his first wild pitch of the season, scoring Alonso to make it a one-run game, he earned his 27th save when he got Ryon Healy to bounce to short.

Rays win, 3-2.

The New What Next

The Rays will play the second of three against Oakland on Tuesday. Blake Snell (0-5, 4.85 ERA, 5.12 FIP) will get the start, opposite of right-hander Chris Smith (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 4.48 FIP).

Snell kept the Cubs off the board for five innings — despite walking four batters — giving him his first scoreless outing of the season. The bullpen could not secure a win for Snell, as the relievers gave up seven unanswered runs with Snell out of the game. While his outing was a step forward, the walks that Snell issued are concerning, and have raised his BB/9 up to an unsightly 5.9 on the season. Suffice it to say, if Snell can’t get it together over his next two starts, the Rays might be forced to rely upon the services of Brent Honeywell instead.

Smith will make his second big league start in Jharel Cotton’s place in the rotation. The 36 year-old allowed three runs on six hits over six innings in his first start on July 8, in Seattle. This season Smith has relied upon an 87 mph pitch-to-contact four-seam fastball, a whiffy 78 mph 12-6 curveball, and a 76 mph Changeup.

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/18/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson DH
Souza Jr. RF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Ramos C
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Peterson LF
Bourjos CF
LHP Snell

Noteworthiness

— Fun fact: INF Trevor Plouffe hadn’t played second base since 2012 … that is, until last night. Tim Beckham took exception to a fourth inning called third strike, and allegedly said something about it while he came out to play second base. As a consequence, Beckham was tossed. With Brad Miller at DH, Plouffe had to play second base.

Sure, Tim Beckham had a point, but…

— Trade rumors galore! The Rays are reportedly one of six teams in talks with the Phillies on Pat Neshak.

— Congratulations to Logan Morrison are in order. LoMo has been named the Rays Heart and Hustle Award winner.

LBWMF: Tampa Bay Rays win seventh straight at the ‘Big A’, 6-3

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Alex Cobb threw 7-2/3 innings of one-run ball Saturday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Alex Cobb worked at least seven innings for the fourth time in his last five starts Saturday night, as the Tampa Bay Rays cruised to a 6-3 victory over the Angels. The Rays (49–43) start the day six games over .500, and within 2-1/2 games of the first place Red Sox after winning their seventh consecutive game at the Big A, in Anaheim.

Cobb didn’t have his best stuff Saturday night, although he didn’t allow a runner past second base until the seventh inning — when Luis Valbuena tagged him for a solo-shot to put Los Angeles on the board. By that time, the Rays were firmly in control.

The right-hander coaxed a lot of long, loud outs, especially early on, and he didn’t miss many bats. Cobb, however, was efficient. In spite of lapsed command — 59 of his 105 pitches went for strikes; 56% strike ratio — Cobb’s pitch count was only in the 50’s through the front five, and it didn’t start to climb until late in his outing. He struck out four and walked three.

Cobb found himself in just three jams.

With a pair on and none out in the second inning, he fanned Andrelton Simmons before inducing an inning ending 4-6-3 double play from Valbuena. In the third, Cobb picked off Cliff Pennington who initially reached on a four-pitch walk. Then in the sixth, the right-hander got Albert Pujols to ground out with two on to keep the Angels off the board.

Meanwhile, the Rays took a one-run lead in the second inning against J.C. Ramirez. After Adeiny Hechavarria reached on a one-out single to center, Shane Peterson smoked a base hit down the right field line. Both runners moved up 90 feet when Ramirez uncorked a wild pitch before Hechavarria scored on Jesus Sucre’s groundout.

That was the first of two RBI for the Rays’ backup catcher, who now has driven in 18 RBI wRISP (23 overall). In fact, Tampa Bay now has 57 RBI from its catchers – two more than all of last season.

In the third inning, Corey Dickerson doubled to right, tagged up and went to third on Evan Longoria’s fly-ball out, and then came home on Logan Morrison’s two-run homer to left-center — his career high 25th of the season.

In the fourth, Shane Peterson hit a one-out bloop (and hustle) double to left, then scored on Sucre’s single to right-center.

Then in the seventh, Mallex Smith reached on a bloop single and then swiped second. Dickerson followed by hitting a high fly-ball that got lost in the non-existant catwalks and/or roof … you know, because the Rays are on the road and not at home. Somehow the ball managed fall directly between a confused looking Mike Trout and Cole Calhoun, allowing Dickerson to reach. For his part, Calhoun backed up the play well and fired the ball in quickly, preventing Smith from advancing past third. Longoria followed with a sacrifice-fly to Trout, which allowed Smith to tag and easily score on the play.

After Valbuena hit the above mentioned seventh inning homer, Steven Souza Jr. responded with a blast into the batter’s eye in centerfield, putting the Rays up by five.

Valbuena capped the scoring by hitting his second homer of the night, a two-run shot off Jumbo Diaz in the ninth.

With action in the bullpen, Diaz retired the next two batters to finish the game and earn the save.

The New What Next

The Rays will go for the sweep Sunday afternoon with their ace, Chris Archer (7-5, 3.95 ERA, 3.16 FIP) on the mound. He’ll be opposed by Parker Bridwell (3–1, 3.24 ERA, 5.81 FIP)

Archer allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks over 6-2/3 innings on Sunday. He struck out eight. The ace was solid for most of the afternoon, with the exceptions of a leadoff homer by Mookie Betts, and a two-run shot by Dustin Pedroia in the seventh inning, costing him a shot at his eighth win of the season. Despite the home run issues, Archer has coaxed whiffs at a high rate, and carried a career-high 10.8 K/9 into the All-Star Break. While he has failed to produce as many shutdown performances as we’ve grown accustomed to this season, Archer has already posted 12 quality starts and will look to be a bit more consistent over the second half.

Per the inimitable Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), Bridwell threw six shutout innings against the Twins his last time out on July 5th. He’s given up three runs or fewer in five of six appearances. However, Bridwell has given up seven homers in 33.1 innings, and has struck out just 19.

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/16/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Miller DH
Beckham 2B
Hechavarria SS
Sucre C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Corey Dickerson broke out of his pre-All Star Break slump with a four hit night, while Shane Peterson had a three hits.

— Wilson Ramos will likely sit out of today’s game after tweaking his left hamstring on Friday when he scored the winning run from first.

— The Rays activated Tim Beckham from the DL after the game, and optioned Taylor Featherston to Triple-A Durham.

— Outstanding ruminations on Arrested Development and Anchorman by BA and DeWayne last night. Also, never forget this gem:

LBWMF: Rays move into sole possession of second place with 2-1 win over the Angels

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A dominant outing by Alex Colome capped the Rays seventh extra inning win Friday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays picked up right where they left off Friday night, beating the Los Angeles Angels in extra innings, 2–1. The Rays moved five games over .500 for the first time this season with the their seventh extra-inning victory this season. Moreover, with the Rays’ win and the Yankees’ loss, Tampa Bay now claims sole possession of second place in the AL East.

Tampa Bay struck first in the first inning when Evan Longoria hit a solo no doubter to left, his 13th homer of the season.

Longoria’s solo home run

Evan Longoria connects for a solo home run to left-center field to open the scoring for the Rays in the top of the 1st inning

However, Los Angeles countered in the bottom of the second when Albert Pujols homered to center — a long ball that just eluded the glove of a leaping Mallex Smith at the wall.

Nolasco settled in against the Rays from there, allowing just one base runner over the next five innings on a Smith walk in the third.

In the Rays corner though, Faria was also tough even without his best stuff. The rookie stranded runners in scoring position in the second, third and fourth innings — holding the Angels to 0-for-6 wRISP in those spots.

Faria did receive some help in the third inning, when Wilson Ramos gunned down Cameron Maybin as he attempted to swipe second. Ramos’ throw almost sailed past Adeiny Hechavarría, who somehow was able to simultaneously save the ball from hurling into centerfield, and tag the foot of Maybin as he slid.

(Screen Shot Credit: FoxSports Sun)

It was a highly improbable play that Hechavarría made look routine.

Brad Miller, on the other hand, had the opportunity to do the same against Mike Trout as he stole second after reaching on a single to center. Miller made no attempt of a tag on a throw from Ramos that beat Trout to the bag. It was a lackadaisical play by the infielder, and the first of three gaffes on the night.

Faria finally settled down at the end of the fourth inning, after he coaxed a bases loaded popper from Maybin that ended the frame. That started a stretch where the cool-as-a-cucumber right-hander retired seven consecutive batters, and nine of his final ten.

When all was said and done, Faria gave up just a run, struck out four, scattered five hits, two walks, and hit a batter. He now has thrown quality starts in the first seven outings of his MLB career. Faria went the first 6-2/3 innings, and Tommy Hunter got the next four outs. That set the stage for Brad Boxberger, who plowed through the Angels on just 12 pitches in the ninth inning.

The Rays were able to break the deadlock in the top of the 10th against Cam Bedrosian, the fourth Angels hurler. The Buffalo started the rally with a rocket to left, before Miller hit a towering double off the wall in right-center — scoring Ramos from first as he was off on contact with two outs.

Up by a run, Alex Colome finished off the contest with a perfect bottom of the tenth, punctuated by a three pitch strikeout of Trout to end it. Don’t look now, but the beleaguered Rays bullpen has given up just one run in the last 14-2/3 innings.

The New What Next

The Rays and Angels will play the second game of three on Saturday. Alex Cobb (7-6, 3.75 ERA, 4.12 FIP) gets the start opposite Jesse Chavez (5-10, 4.99 ERA, 5.25 FIP).

Cobb was brilliant over 7-2/3 innings, relinquishing just two singles, while not allowing a runner beyond first. He struck out three. The right-hander didn’t have his whiffy stuff, although the split-change (the Thing) was more prevalent this time than last — throwing it for strikes 11 of 19 times, with four swings-and-misses. The Thing had a decent 6.68 inches of break, which is a positive, although he relied heavily on his fastball and knuckle-curve to great effect. Cobb used his repertoire to pitch to contact and miss barrels. His two best outings of the season have come over his last three starts.

Chavez allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings in his last start, absorbing the loss Saturday against Texas. He struck out six. This season, he has relied primarily upon a kitchen sink repertoire of pitches — a 92 mph four-seam fastball and an explosive 91 mph cutter, while also mixing in a firm 86 mph changeup with arm side fade, a 92 mph two-seam fastball/sinker that results in a fair number of fly balls, an 84 mph worm-burner of a slider, and a 77 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement. The 33 year-old right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA in eight appearances (one start) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Taylor Featherston (2-2), Logan Morrison (6-19, 3 HR, 3 HR, 7 RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-7)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 7/15/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Peterson LF
Sucre C
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

— At 13-8 since June 8 (a .619 clip), the Rays have improved their odds of a postseason berth from 25% to 36.2% (per FanGraphs). Since it will likely take somewhere between 87 and 90 wins to earn a spot in the postseason, Tampa Bay will have to win 40 of the remaining 71 games; i.e. the Rays would have to perform at a .563 clip, which is feasible if they can continue to rack up series wins.

(Credit: FanGraphs)

— By way of BaseRuns, the Rays should have an overall 50-41 record — one prospective win better than the AL East leading Boston Red Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays 7/14/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

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A photo of the 1962 Los Angeles Angels of the PCL. There is no direct relationship to the modern day Angels ball club. (Photo Credit: Unknown)

Following the well needed four-day break, the Tampa Bay Rays kickoff a weekend series tonight against the Los Angeles Angels. At 47-43, Tampa Bay can reach a new high-water mark with a victory tonight.

Rays 7/14/17 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Dickerson DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Ramos C
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Peterson LF
Faria RHP

Noteworthiness

— LHP Jonny Venters has been assigned to Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs, another step in what would be a great comeback story for the hurler.

— Tampa Bay is expected to have Tim Beckham (left ankle) activated on Sunday, the last game of this series. Rickie Weeks Jr. is to start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham next week.

— Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) updated the short-term post-Rasmus situation with the Rays: Brad Miller can take some of the DH at-bats when not in the field, and Corey Dickerson can play left and has done so fairly well. In addition, Kevin Kiermaier is eligible to come off the DL on August 8th, and Kevin Cash indicated yesterday the hope that Kiermaier will return on that date, or fairly close to it.

— You can read about tonight’s pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.