The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays ― A Series Preview

Third base coach Charlie Montoyo congratulates Evan Longoria after he crushed homer number 204 over the Monstah on September 24, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Third base coach Charlie Montoyo congratulates Evan Longoria after he crushed homer number 204 over the Monstah on September 24, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays packed their belongings and exited the tin can like confines of Fenway Park after winning three of four against the Boston Red Sox. Next stop Toronto, where the Rays will take on David Price and the Blue Jays, in their last road series of the 2015 season.

As with the Rays’ fall from grace, Toronto’s ascension to the top of the AL East has been well documented. Still, the Blue Jays have struggled against Tampa Bay this season, dropping six of seven to the Rays back in April. The Jays, however, have gone 4-2 since.

The Rays will see the Blue Jays after what can be described as a challenging week for Toronto, who has lost three of their last five at home to the Yankees and divisional rival Boston Red Sox, and are just 5-5 over the past 10 games. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has played consistent ball of late ― winning six of 10, and posting a +15 run differential in those victories.

Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Matt Andriese over the next three days. Odorizzi (8-8, 3.38 ERA) fell short of six innings pitched for just the sixth time this season. He also was unable to win for the first time (in six starts) when he received at least four runs of support. Archer (12-12, 2.92 ERA) reached the 200-innings plateau for the first time in his career on Monday night. Unfortunately for Archer and the Rays, he came away with a no-decision after allowing just one run on three hits and five walks in five innings. Andriese (3-5, 4.37) will make the start on Sunday in place of Matt Moore, who will face the Marlins on Tuesday. The rotation shuffle set up marquee matchup Saturday afternoon in Toronto: Chris Archer vs. David Price — student vs. mentor. In any case, Andriese has a 5.27 ERA in 15 relief appearances this year, compared to a 3.62 ERA in seven starts.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue jays by the numbers.
Rays and Blue jays by the numbers.

RA Dickey (10-11, 4.05 ERA) has allowed 13 earned runs over 23-2/3 innings against Tampa Bay this season, but seven of those came in one outing on April 24. Outside of that one blowout loss, Dickey has tossed three quality starts vs. the Rays. Dickey got a no-decision on Saturday despite a quality start, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk over six innings while striking out three. It was Dickey’s fourth QS in his last five starts. Key matchups: JP Arencibia (1-2, HR, 3 RBI), Tim Beckham (1-3, 2B, 2 BB), Asdrubal Cabrera (6-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (6-19, 2 2B, 3 RBI), John Jaso (3-7, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (10-40, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Grady Sizemore (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, RBI, BB)

David Price (17-5, 2.34 ERA) has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, and in 19 of his last 23 outings. He allowed two just hits during his last start vs. the Yankees, which was the fewest he’s allowed since August 21, 2014, in a loss at Tampa Bay. The Rays tagged Price for five runs on seven hits (including two homers) over six innings on July 28th. The lefty, however, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any game since. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, RBI), Asdrubal Cabrera (5-18, 3 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB), Nick Franklin (1-4, 2B, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 2B)

Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.69 ERA) took a no-decision, giving up three earned runs across six innings on Sunday. He gave up eight hits and two walks while striking out one. The lefty is 14-2/3 innings shy of reaching the 200 mark for the 15th consecutive year, but he’s starting to run out of time. He has two starts remaining, otherwise he might have to chase the milestone pitching out of the bullpen. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (3-5), Logan Forsythe (9-22, 4 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (6-18, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, RBI), James Loney (7-27, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (16-47, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Mikie Mahtook (1-1, HR, 2 RBI), Daniel Nava (4-13, 2B, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, HR, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— How many Rays and Jays stats can you take? Per the Toronto Star:

The Jays are 1-6 vs. the Rays this year in games decided by two runs or less. The Jays have been outscored by the Rays 51-47 in the 13 games, averaging just 7.5 combined runs per contest.

Jays were 1-6 vs. the Rays in April and that month were 10-5 vs. everyone else.

The Jays were 11-8 vs. the Rays in 2014, including a 5-4 mark at the Rogers Centre.

The Jays vs. the Rays lifetime are 145-163 (83-72 in Toronto; 62-91 in St. Pete and Orlando).

The Jays are 26-35 vs. the Rays at home since 2009.

— With his sixth inning blast in the series finale, Evan Longoria joined Eddie Mathews, Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen as the only third basemen in major league history to hit 20 HR seven times in their first eight seasons.

— Q: See you at Green Bench Brewing Company on Friday? A: See you at Green Bench Brewing Company on Friday!

WATCHPARTY

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win Second Straight, 6-2

The Tampa Bay Rays warm up before their game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on September 23, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
The Tampa Bay Rays warm up before their game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on September 23, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
A pair of former teammates took the hill against one another on Wednesday night, yet Rays hurler Drew Smyly prevailed over Boston’s Rick Porcello. The Tampa Bay Rays broke open a close game late en route to a 6-2 win over the Red Sox. The Rays (74-78) has now won the two straight against the Red Sox.

Tampa Bay took a late lead in the seventh, breaking a scoreless tie. Kevin Kiermaier (3-for-3 against Rick Porcello), slapped a one out base hit to right. The Outlaw sandwiched a pair of stolen bases around a Nick Franklin strikeout, before John Jaso walked. With runners on the corners and two outs, Daniel Nava ― who made his first start against his former team at Fenway ― bounced an RBI single through the right side, giving the Rays a one run lead.

The Red Sox missed out on a big scoring opportunity in the seventh inning; one that could have changed the complexion of the game. Blake Swihart walked against Smyly to lead off the frame, and Deven Marrero reached on a bunt single that James Loney bobbled as he tried to make a play at second. Smyly was able to coax a fly ball out to center from Jackie Bradley Jr., but with 107 pitches (67 strikes) under his belt, it was clear his night would be done.

Andrew Bellatti took the hill in relief and got Mookie Betts to fly to center, with Swihart advancing to third on the tag up. With Dustin Pedroia at the plate, Marrero swiped second, but Boston’s second baseman grounded to short to end the threat.

That gave the Rays lefty starter a shutout over 6-1/3 innings. Smyly worked around three walks and an HBP, to go along with five scattered hits. He fanned seven in his fourth scoreless start of the season ― the second in as many starts against Boston. Additionally, the scoreless start gave Rays starters their 31st scoreless start of the season ―  the most in the Majors after leading the Majors last season with 32. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Tampa Bay is just the second club in Major League history with 30 starts in back-to-back seasons when the starting pitcher was not charged with a run.

Tampa Bay extended its lead in the eighth by tacking on three more runs. Porcello allowed back-to-back hits (an opposite-field double to Asdrubal Cabrera, and a single by Steven Souza Jr.), consequently putting runners at the corners with no outs. It also spelled the end of Porcello’s night.

Tommy Layne took the mound in relief and got pinch hitter Logan Forsythe to ground to third. However, Marrero mishandled the play, allowing Cabrera to cross the plate. After J.P. Arencibia lined to center, and Kiermaier bounced into a 1-6 fielder’s choice, Nick Franklin walked — bringing the dreaded Jaso to the plate. The Rays DH doubled to left, plating a pair and pushing the lead to four runs.

Another inning, and two more runs… Cabrera career homer number 100 off Pesky’s pole in the ninth inning, and Souza Jr. responded in kind, crushing a Monstah shot to left.

Souza had four of Tampa Bay’s 14 hits, while Cabrera and Kiermaier had three apiece.

The Rays bullpen followed Smyly with 2-2/3 innings of relief, but Kirby Yates made things unintentionally interesting after he allowed a couple of two-out runs in the ninth. Now up by four, Brad Boxberger got David Ortiz to fly out to left for the final out of the game, and his 37th save.

The New What Next

Erasmo Ramirez (10-6, 3.70 ERA) will take the hill in the series finale, opposite of LHP Wade Miley (11-10, 4.34 ERA). Ramirez hopes to end a trend that has seen the Rays lose his last five starts after winning 11 of his previous 15. Miley has been on a consistent roll lately, giving up three earned runs or fewer in his last three starts. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/24/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Mahtook DH
Longoria 3B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Shaffer 1B
Maile C
Ramirez RHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will start Matt Andriese on Sunday in Toronto in place of Matt Moore, who will face the Marlins on Tuesday. The move also puts a righty on the hill against the Blue Jays. The rotation shuffle sets up marquee matchup Saturday afternoon in Toronto: Chris Archer vs. David Price — student vs. mentor.

— Just one more day until our final regular season watch party. Hope to see you at Green Bench Brewing Company Friday night.

WATCHPARTY

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Moore and Mahtook Lead Rays to 5-2 Win

While the Tampa Bay Rays were battling the Red Sox in Boston, this humble blogger was participating in a Rays Radio focus group at the Trop. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)
While the Tampa Bay Rays battled the Red Sox in Boston, this humble blogger participated in a Rays Radio focus group at the Trop. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)
Mikie Mahtook hit a two-run homer in the eighth inning and Matt Moore recovered from a tough start to fan seven as the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Boston Red Sox 5-2 on Tuesday night.

Coming off his best start of the season, when he posted an efficient 7 IP/2 H/0 BB/9 K outing against the Orioles, Matt Moore took the bump for the second time in 10 days against the Red Sox. In turn Boston welcomed the lefty with two hits, two walks, and two runs five batters into the game. Mookie Betts started the rally with a hustle double to left-center.

After Josh Rutledge went down swinging, Xander Bogaerts and David Ortiz worked back-to-back walks to load the bases with one out. Travis Shaw followed with a two-run single to right-center for a two-run advantage. And though Moore wild-pitched Shaw to second, the lefty put down the next two batters (both swinging) to limit the damage and end the inning.

Moore threw an incredibly inefficient 32 pitches in the first inning, but he settled in and hurled 5-2/3 innings of scoreless baseball from that point on. Moore didn’t walk another batter, and collected seven strikeouts, while scattering seven hits. Topping out at 96 mph multiple times throughout his start, the lefty racked up 17 total swings and misses with his four seam fastball (5), change up (6), and curveball (6).

Matt Moore at-bat outcomes. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)
Matt Moore at-bat outcomes. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)
On the other side, rookie hurler Henry Owens buzzed through the first 12 batters, tossing four perfect innings to start the game on just 38 pitches. However, that all changed in the fifth inning when Logan Forsythe lined a double off the Green Monster to leadoff the inning. Asdrubal Cabrera laid down a beautiful sacrifice bunt, moving Forsythe to third, and Steven Souza Jr. followed with a sac-fly to right to get Tampa Bay within a run.

The Rays took the lead for good with a little help in the sixth. Richie Shaffer walked to start the frame, and Brandon Guyer was hit by a pitch (his AL leading 20th HBP), putting runners at first and second with one out. The hot hitting Mikie Mahtook singled to load the bases, bringing Evan Longoria to the plate. Longoria lifted a sac-fly to right, scoring Shaffer, but Betts’ throw went into the seats, allowing Guyer to come home for a one-run advantage.

Tampa Bay tallied two more runs in the eighth. Guyer led off the inning with a double to left and Mahtook followed with a homer over the Monster (his fifth) for a three-run lead.

14 Rays have now collected at least five homers in 2015 – one shy of tying the team record. Andrew Bellatti took the mound in relief and got three outs, Enny Romero put down the final batter in the eighth, and Brad Boxberger worked around a leadoff walk to record his team-best 36th save in the ninth. All told, it was a clean ballgame; something of a rarity for the Rays these days.

The New What Next

Drew Smyly (3-2, 3.64 ERA) will take the mound opposite of RHP Rick Porcello (8-13, 5.16 ERA) on Wednesday. Smyly allowed a season-high-tying five earned runs in his last start against Baltimore, all via two home runs. The lefty has surrendered 11 home runs in 54-1/3 innings this season. Smyly, however, is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in seven career regular-season appearances (five starts) against the Red Sox. Porcello will make his fourth start of the season against the Rays. In the prior three, he has gone 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 19 strikeouts. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/23/15 Starting Lineup

@mlblineups: 9/23 #Rays lineup at BOS
Jaso DH
Nava LF
Longoria 3B
Cabrera SS
Souza Jr. RF
Loney 1B
Arencibia C
Kiermaier CF
Franklin 2B
Smyly LHP

Noteworthiness

— In the third inning, Brandon Guyer denied David Ortiz of a hit and doubled off Xander Bogaerts. It was a well executed play by the outfielder, and felt oh so right considering the victims.

— Jake McGee threw a simulated inning in Boston Wednesday afternoon. The inning must have been good, as he received fist bumps from Kevin Cash, Jime Hickey, and the other pitchers who came to watch. The initial plan was for McGee plan was to throw, and if all went well, he would be available to pitch on Saturday in Toronto.

— For those of you wondering why Nathan Karns hasn’t started nor relieved of late, it turns out the righty has been shut down for the season due to right forearm tightness.  Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times),

Both Karns and Rays manager Kevin Cash said they are confident the issue is nothing serious and said that at a different point in the season he may have pitched through it. But after Karns went through a 20-pitch session early Tuesday afternoon, the decision was made to be cautious and allow him more time to rest and not risk further injury by having him make another start.

— Only two more days until our last regular season watch party of the year. Hope to see you at Green Bench Brewing Company on Friday. WATCHPARTY

Rays 9/22/15 Starting Lineup; Braves Eye St. Pete as Spring Training Home

AR-150929839
Mikie Mahtook scores during the Rays’ three-run first inning Monday. Tampa Bay led 3-0 before an out was recorded. (Photo Credit: The Associated Press)
The Tampa Bay Rays start the day in last place in the AL East. They haven’t been cellar dwellers this late in the season since 2007, back in the days of the green-clad Devil Rays uniforms.

Rays 9/22/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Mahtook CF
Longoria 3B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Souza Jr. RF
Loney 1B
Shaffer DH
Maile C
Moore RHP

Noteworthiness

― You can read about tonight’s pitching matchup in our series preview.

― Only 13 of the 149 homers this season have come with runners on base. The 8.7%t is the lowest in the majors. Unlike their opponents, Tampa Bay has not hit a grand slam this season. Their last was on July 9, 2014 when Kevin Kiermaier hit one Kansas City. Make that a stretch of 218 games.

― Curious news broke (via the Tampa Bay Times) today, it seems that the Atlanta Braves could call St. Petersburg their Spring Training home at some point in the near future. A proposal by SportsPark Partners LLC a group ― a development group led by Darryl LeClair ― would move the Braves Spring Training quarters from the Orlando area to a new stadium complex in the Toytown area of St. Petersburg. The question begs, might this represent an opportunity for the Rays to improve their footprint in the Orlando market?

You might recall, LeClair put together a Rays stadium proposal in the Carillon area of St. Pete three years ago. That plan, however, never gained traction with the team’s ownership group.

The initial bid on the Toytown property was made the beginning of the month, though the bid was not made public at that point, and it was assumed that LeClair might consider using the property toward another Rays stadium bid ― after all, it’s in the East/Central part of Pinellas County, it’s right off the highway, and it’s not far from the Howard-Frankland Bridge. It should also be noted, Pinellas County has the money to pool together for a new stadium.

Erasmo Ramirez is Now A Viable Rotation Piece (Beyond the Boxscore)

(Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports)
(Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports)
In light of Chris Archer’s ahem…command strapped, five walk outing Monday night, I felt it apropos to repost a piece by Spencer Bingol (Beyond the Boxscore) regarding a Ray who’s had good command of the strike zone for most of the season ― Erasmo Ramirez.

Bingol’s assertion: Following his seven inning no-hit bid on September 14th, it became evident that Erasmo Ramirez has earned a spot in the Rays rotation moving forward. It’s an interesting premise, as Ramirez was viewed as a disposable piece toward the beginning of the season. Without further ado, Bingol’s piece follows in part.

Bingo writes:

On the whole, however, Erasmo Ramirez has taken the steps forward necessary to emerge as a viable average starting pitcher in the major leagues. Following two seasons in which he struggled mightily by failing to strike out batters, generate ground balls, and limit home runs, Ramirez has put it together in 2015.

His new 19.2 percent strikeout rate now hovers about league average, while his 6.6 percent walk rate is a large drop from the past two seasons and is better than league average. The same can be said for his 47.4 percent ground ball rate.

Despite a roughly average strikeout rate, Ramirez actually excels with an 11.5 percent whiff rate, a number above league average (data per FanGraphs).

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 10.33.40 PM

But why has Ramirez been so effective? Bingol finds that the changeup has been a game changer for Erasmo,

Batters are making contact on outside pitches at a rate 5.5 percent lower than league average. A lot success has to do with the pitch that got him to the majors – his stellar changeup.

It is an interesting pitch on several fronts. First, Ramirez owns one of the ten slowest changeups in baseball (minimum 130 innings) and is among the top dozen by changeup usage rate. Based on its current 59.3 percent ground-ball and 25.9 percent whiff rates, as well as his ability to throw it anywhere he wants in the bottom half of the strike zone, one could go so far as to call it an elite pitch (data per Fangraphs).

This season, Ramirez has been using the pitch more against same-handed batters in lieu of his curveball to great effect. The pitch’s ground-ball rate is currently almost 10 percent higher than its career rate. However, save for a slight increase in chase percentage (42.3 percent in 2015 versus 40.7 percent career), the movement and velocity of the pitch have not changed much. The same could be said about his four-seam fastball, which is a roughly average offering.

Bingol also finds that in lieu of another plus offspeed pitch, Ramirez has used his changeup to great effect, especially against righties:

This season, Ramirez has been using the pitch more against same-handed batters in lieu of his curveball to great effect.

Brooksbaseball-Chart

The pitch’s ground-ball rate is currently almost 10 percent higher than its career rate. However, save for a slight increase in chase percentage (42.3 percent in 2015 versus 40.7 percent career), the movement and velocity of the pitch have not changed much. The same could be said about his four-seam fastball, which is a roughly average offering.

When all is said and done, Ramirez hasn’t been satisfied with being viewed as just a fifth starter, and he’s acclimated himself to a being a middle of the rotation hurler ― a pitcher Bingol views as an integral part of next season’s rotation:

If he can build on his 2015 progress, there may even be a bit more ceiling in his outlook, and outings like Monday may come as less of a surprise.

As is, he demonstrates an elite changeup that effectively gets batters out from both sides of the plate, features two average or better fastballs, and has made enough improvements on the breaking balls to compensate for the current lack of consistency. Ramirez has shown enough to be penciled in as a rotation piece for the Rays’ 2016 season.

I’d encourage you to read this article in full (linked).  The question now begs, what will the Rays do with Nathan Karns?