The New What Next: Rays vs. Marlins ― An Interleague Series Preview

Mikie Mahtook steals third base under the tag of Josh Donaldson during the eighth inning of a baseball game on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)
Mikie Mahtook steals third base under the tag of Josh Donaldson during the eighth inning of a baseball game on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

Coming off a disappointing series sweep at the hands of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home ahead of their season capping, six-game home stand. They’ll welcome the Miami Marlins into Tropicana Field for a three-game interleague series, starting Tuesday.

The Miami Marlins have made the best out of this season’s final few weeks, while the Tampa Bay Rays have not. The Marlins, who are 17-8 since August 31, have rattled off a string of five straight victories ― including a three-game sweep of Atlanta over the weekend.

In that series, Marlins’ slugger Justin Bour went 7-12 with four homers and eight RBI, and boasts five blasts in the last five games. Meanwhile, Kevin Kiermaier is finishing the season strong for Tampa Bay, going 9-23 with two homers (both off LHP) and four RBI the last six games.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash will throw Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, and Erasmo Ramirez over the next three days. Moore (2-4, 6.48) has turned the corner over the last two starts after struggling in his first eight since returning from Tommy John surgery. The lefty allowed two runs on nine hits over 13-2/3 innings with 16 strikeouts and two walks in the past two starts combined. Moore is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Marlins (both in 2012). Smyly (4-2, 3.26 ERA) held Boston scoreless on five hits and three walks, while fanning seven, on Wednesday en route to his fourth win of the season. Ramirez (11-6, 3.65 ERA) put together another gem on Thursday, giving up just two runs and retiring 18 of 20 batters faced. Erasmo has now thrown at least seven innings in three straight starts for the first time at the MLB level. He enters the with an 11-6 record and a 3.65 ERA/3.82 FIP/2.2 WAR line.

The Rays are 11-6 in interleague play this season (5-2 at home) and will finish .500 or better in five straight seasons against NL ball clubs.

Rays and Marlins series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Marlins series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Marlins offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Marlins offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Marlins by the numbers.
Rays and Marlins by the numbers.

Adam Conley (4-1, 3.93 ERA) is unbeaten in his last five starts with three victories. He has allowed three or fewer runs in six consecutive outings, with a 2.70 ERA in that span. The 25 year-old lefty yielded just one run and six hits across 13 frames, with 14 strikeouts and one walk in his last two starts. Conley relies primarily on a 92 mph four seam fastball and an 84 mph change-up, while also mixing in an 85 mph slider and a rare 92 mph sinker.

Jarred Cosart (2-4, 4.15 ERA) exited Thursday’s game against the Phillies in the fifth inning with a left forearm contusion and was listed day-to-day. A forearm contusion shouldn’t cost Cosart too much time, and the righty is expected to make his start against the Rays on Wednesday. Cosart is 3-1 with a 1.24 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay, including a six inning outing on April 11 where he allowed one run on three hits in a 2-0 loss. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (3-8, 2 3B, 2 RBI, BB), Nick Franklin (2-6, 2 BB), Brandon Guyer (2-3), Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 3 2B, BB)

Jose Fernandez (6-0, 2.91 ERA) relinquished six runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out two in a win over Atlanta on Friday. It was Fernandez’s worst start of the season, inflating his ERA from 2.18 to 2.91. Still, the righty continues to boast an elite 10.74 K/9 rate to go along with a 1.09 WHIP. Key matchup: Asdrubal Cabrera (1-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

― Steven Souza Jr. is 7-18 with a homer and three RBI in his last four games.

― Martin Prado is 10-26 with two homers and nine RBI over his last seven contests.

― The Rays are 2-1 this season against Miami.

― If there’s any consolation, Tampa Bay’s Pythagorean expectation is 77-79, i.e. the team is underperforming and they are better than their actual W/L record suggests.

This Week in Rays Baseball ― 9/21/15 – 9/27/15

Mikie Mahtook is congratulated by Brandon Guyer after hitting a two-run home run in the third inning during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Mikie Mahtook is congratulated by Brandon Guyer after hitting a two-run home run in the third inning during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays took to the road on Monday with their sights set firmly on collecting their first winning road trip since June 17-21, when they took four of five from the Nationals and Indians. They also set out with an opportunity to get back to .500 and then some. The Rays, however, were unsuccessful in both endeavors, and ended the road trip with a 3-4 record after being chewed up and spit out by the unrelenting Blue Jays of Toronto.

…And the downward spiral continues its slow grind toward the end of the season.

This isn’t to say the past has been uneventful ― far from it. Joe Maddon’s Chicago Cubs clinched their first playoff berth since 2008. Not to be outdone, the Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, and Toronto Blue Jays will also play relevant baseball past October 4th, setting the table for what promises to be a compelling postseason. Now if the Houston Astros could hurry up and realize their postseason aspirations. I digress.

On the bright side, there were three promising games on the Rays road trip, all of which came at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Let’s take a look at those games, and the peripheral events that surrounded the team this week.

Tuesday

Before Tuesday’s contest, curious news broke (via the Tampa Bay Times), the Atlanta Braves are allegedly interested in calling St. Petersburg their Spring Training home at some point in the near future. A proposal by SportsPark Partners LLC a group ― a development group led by Darryl LeClair ― would move the Braves Spring Training quarters from the Orlando area to a new stadium complex in the Toytown area of St. Petersburg.

You might recall, LeClair put together a Rays stadium proposal in the Carillon area of St. Pete three years ago. That plan, however, never gained traction with the team’s ownership group.

The initial bid on the Toytown property was made the beginning of the month, though the bid was not made public at that point, and it was assumed that LeClair might consider using the property toward another Rays stadium bid ― after all, it’s in the East/Central part of Pinellas County, it’s right off the highway, and it’s not far from the Howard-Frankland Bridge. It should also be noted, Pinellas County has the money to pool together for a new stadium.

The team chose not to comment on things until later in the week.

Meanwhile on the field, Mikie Mahtook hit a two-run homer in the eighth inning and Matt Moore recovered from a tough start to fan seven as the Rays beat the Red Sox 5-2.

Moore threw an incredibly inefficient 32 pitch first inning, though he settled in and hurled 5-2/3 innings of scoreless baseball from that point on. The lefty didn’t walk another batter, and collected seven strikeouts, while scattering seven hits. Topping out at 96 mph multiple times throughout his start, the lefty racked up 17 total swings and misses with his four seam fastball (5), change up (6), and curveball (6).

Word also broke why Nathan Karns hadn’t taken the mound of late, the righty has been shut down for the season due to right forearm tightness.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times):

Both Karns and Rays manager Kevin Cash said they are confident the issue is nothing serious and said that at a different point in the season he may have pitched through it. But after Karns went through a 20-pitch session early Tuesday afternoon, the decision was made to be cautious and allow him more time to rest and not risk further injury by having him make another start.

Wednesday

A pair of former teammates took the hill against one another on Wednesday night, yet Rays hurler Drew Smyly prevailed over Boston’s Rick Porcello. The Tampa Bay Rays broke open a close game late en route to a 6-2 win over the Red Sox.

Smyly worked around three walks and an HBP, to go along with five scattered hits. He fanned seven in his fourth scoreless start of the season ― the second in as many starts against Boston. Additionally, the scoreless start gave Rays starters their 31st scoreless start of the season ―  the most in the Majors after leading the Majors last season with 32. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Tampa Bay is just the second club in Major League history with 30 starts in back-to-back seasons when the starting pitcher was not charged with a run.

Thursday

Erasmo Ramirez took the bump in the series finale with Boston and put up another gem. And though he gave up two Red Sox runs in the first inning on a David Ortiz homer (his 36th homer of the season and 502nd of his career), Ramirez settled down and did not allow another runner beyond first over the next six innings ― ultimately retiring 18 of 20 batters faced.

Erasmo has now thrown at least seven innings in three straight starts for the first time at the MLB level. He enters the with an 11-6 record and a 3.65 ERA/3.82 FIP/2.2 WAR line. Not bad for a hurler who was once referred to as “Assmo” by some of readers at DRaysBay.

Friday

Three days after a plan was unveiled to move the Atlanta Braves Spring Training home to St. Petersburg, Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays issued their first public comments.

Rays president Brian Auld quickly made his first public comment on the proposal:

The Rays appreciate MLB’s attention to this matter. We fully agree with and support their statement, he said in a statement when asked for comment by the media.

Major League Baseball issued the following statement this morning:

Earlier this week, Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays learned of the St. Petersburg Sports Park proposal for the first time.  Major League Baseball appreciates the support that it has received for the construction of Spring Training facilities throughout the State of Florida. The most pressing need, however, is the construction of a Major League-quality facility for the Rays.

Major League Baseball is committed to working with the Rays to secure a new ballpark in cooperation with the Tampa Bay region.  This can only happen with the support of local political and business leaders.

Incidentally, Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium) opined the proposal could mean one of three things:

  1. The Rays & MLB are assuming the Rays will be gone from Tampa Bay in a decade or so, thus diminishing any negative impact of a Braves spring training relocation. In fact, it could be positioned as a consolation prize for Pinellas County.
  2. The Rays & MLB want to stay in Tampa Bay, but are using the pressure on Pinellas County’s limited tourist tax bonding capacity to force St. Pete’s hand.  Forced to make a decision about where bed tax revenues would be best-spent, the city could allow the Rays permission to begin negotiating for new stadium sites.
  3. The Rays & MLB want a taxpayer-funded stadium at Toytown and – unable to negotiate with Pinellas County right now – the Rays have coordinated with the Braves, MLB, and developers to orchestrate a bait-and-switch.  The proposed 10,000-seat stadium becomes a 25,000-seat stadium and the Rays move closer to the bay bridges.  The Braves could even share Bright House Networks Field in Clearwater without major expenditures.

Pransky was quick to note that while option three is a longshot, all three theories could mean a considerable bump in leverage for the Rays as they continue to push for a new stadium.

The weekend series against Toronto was a wash. The team played like the Devil Rays, although we got a sense of what’s to be expected out of the Blue Jays in the playoffs. God help whoever they may face.

One last thing

When you’re feeling disappointed about the black hole that is/was the 2015 season, just remember at least we don’t have to watch the bravado fest that is Bryce Harper and Jonathan Papelbon. The two volatile players exchanged words before their spat came to blows in the dugout. #Perspective

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Jays Clinch Postseason Berth in 10-8 Win Over the Rays

Asdrubal Cabrera hits an RBI single in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 26, 2015. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Asdrubal Cabrera hits an RBI single in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 26, 2015. (Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
The highly anticipated marquee matchup between Chris Archer and David Price certainly did not live up to billing on Saturday afternoon. In the end, the 18 run contest ultimately benefitted Toronto, as the Blue Jays won 10-8. Toronto, the top scoring team in the Majors, never trailed after a five run first inning and punched their ticket to the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.

After former Ray David Price threw an efficient 1-2-3 first, Toronto tagged Archer for five runs in the bottom half of the inning. Ben Revere led off with an infield single, while Josh Donaldson worked a walk to put two on with none out. Jose Bautista, who entered the game 3-29 the Rays hurler, lined a three-run homer to left for a quick three-run lead. The ever dangerous Edwin Encarnacion went down swinging before Justin Smoak reached on a single to left-center. Unfortunately for the Rays, Russell Martin punctuated the inning with a two-run blast to left.

Price underwent his tribulations just two innings later, allowing four runs in the third. Kevin Kiermaier hit an opposite field ground rule double to start the rally, and Rene Rivera actually got on base by working a walk. Brandon Guyer squirted a single through the right side, loading the bases for Steven Souza Jr. with none out.

Souza lined a ball over the head of Jose Bautista in right, allowing Kiermaier to score. But Rivera got hung up near second before moving to third, as he wasn’t sure if the ball was going to be caught by Rivera. Cliff Pennington, trying to get Souza as he attempted to go back to first, threw the ball up the first base line, allowing a second run to score. Interestingly enough, a fan reached over and grabbed the ball as it reached the stands. Guyer, who initially scored on the play, was asked to retake third due to the fan interference. Price picked up a strikeout, but with a pair of runners in scoring position, the lefty allowed another run on a Logan Forsythe sacrifice-fly to left. Finally, Asdrubal Cabrera followed with an RBI single to pull the Rays within a run at 5-4. Sadly that was as close as the Rays would get.

In the bottom of the third with two outs and a runner on second (thanks to a Ryan Goins double to left), a trifecta of Rays misplayed a routine pop fly in shallow right-center off the bat of Kevin Pillar, instead converting it instead into an RBI double that glanced off the glove of a diving Kiermaier. Cliff Pennington walked before Revere doubled to right, driving in a run and extending the Jays lead to 7-4.

In an attempt to regain favor with the Rays ace, Kiermaier worked an eight pitch at-bat before homering (his 10th) to straightaway center field in the fourth, yet another defensive miscue led to two more runs in the bottom of the frame.

Cabrera and Forsythe were unable to turn a tailor-made double play off the bat of Encarnacion, and instead of none on and two out, Smoak stepped to the plate and started another two-run rally. The first baseman singled to left before Martin walked to load the bases. Goins hit a sac-fly to left and Pillar doubled to right-center, chasing Archer and putting the Blue Jays up by four.

C.J. Riefenhauser, Andrew Bellatti, Xavier Cedeno, and Brandon Gomes put up 3-1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, but Bautista capped Toronto’s scoring with a solo homer in the eighth off Kirby Yates. The Rays, on the other hand, went four innings before they got another base runner beyond first base.

Ryan Tepera took the mound for the Blue Jays with a five run lead in the ninth. Tepera walked Cabrera on four pitches, and Richie Shaffer reached on an error, putting runners at first and second. John Gibbons saw enough, and Brett Cecil entered the game in relief and got Loney to ground out to second… but not before both runners advanced to second and third. Kiermaier kept things moving along after he hit a ball off Darwin Barney’s glove for a two-base error that scored Cabrera from second.

Closer Roberto Osuna became the third pitcher of the inning and quickly handed over another run on a broken-bat single to Grady Sizemore, bringing the Rays within three. With two on and one out, pinch-hitter John Jaso followed with a single to right, putting the Rays within a two! But Osuna got Souza to line out to center and Longoria grounded to third to end the game.

Price was lifted after five innings and 95 pitches, but still picked up his 18th win, and ninth in 11 starts since joining the Jays.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese (3-5, 4.37 ERA) will make his seventh start of the season, opposite of Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.69 ERA). Andriese last start on August 13st against Norfolk (Orioles) for Triple-A Durham. Given that he is not “stretched out,” the Tampa Bay will likely use many pitchers. Buehrle is 14-2/3 innings shy of reaching the 200-inning plateau for the 15th consecutive year, which has only been done by three pitchers in MLB history (Warren Spahn, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry). You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/27/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Mahtook CF
Longoria 3B
Forsythe DH
Cabrera SS
Souza RF
Beckham 2B
Shaffer 1B
Maile C
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

― Interestingly enough, the end of Saturday’s game mirrored that of a game against the Twins on September 20, 2008 ― when the Rays reached the postseason for the first time. In that game, Troy Percival allowed three base runners and a run before Joe Maddon pulled him in favor of Trever Miller.

Miller allowed another run on a grounder by Alexi Casilla before coaxing a foul ball popper to third out of Joe Mauer to end the game. In this case, the Jays burnt through three pitchers and allowed three runs before coaxing a grounder to third out of Evan Longoria.

― Kiermaier’s homer was his 10th of the season, joining Carl Crawford (2004-06, 2010) as the only Ray with 10 HR and 10 triples in a season.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Jays Slug Their Way to 5-3 Win

Kevin Kiermaier leaps but cannot get a solo home run hit by Kevin Pillar in the fourth inning. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Kevin Kiermaier leaps but cannot get a solo home run hit by Kevin Pillar in the fourth inning. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

While the Tampa Bay Rays were able to tag RA Dickey for two first inning runs Friday night, the top team in the AL East had plenty of answers, as the Blue Jays took the first game of a three-game series by a 5-3 margin. The Rays are now 3-2 on their final road trip of the season.

The Rays rallied against Dickey in the first inning. Grady Sizemore slashed a double to right-center with one out, and went to third on Evan Longoria’s base hit to left. After Logan Forsythe was hit by a pitch, loading the bases, Dickey wild-pitched Sizemore Sizemore home for the first run. Asdrubal Cabrera followed with a sacrifice-fly to right for a 2-0 advantage.

Yet Dickey settled down and gave up just two hits over the next five innings ― retiring 20 of 22 at one point. Dickey did an excellent job of staying ahead of the count and found success by changing speeds with his knuckleball.

It seemed like the slower one had a lot more movement, so I used that one as kind of the catalyst, Dickey said. It was in their heads that I was going to take it down a notch, and then when I did throw a hard one sometimes, it would beat them.

Dickey only fanned two batters, however, he gave up no walks and forced plenty of weak contact. In short, it was vintage Dickey.

Meanwhile, Odorizzi worked around a leadoff triple in the first inning, but Toronto (the highest scoring team in the American League) came up with runs in the second and third innings to tie the game.

The Blue Jays plated their first run in the bottom of the second. With two outs and none on, Kevin Pillar hit an opposite field ground rule double, that bounced over the wall in right. Pillar then swiped third with a batter in the left handed batter’s box. JP Arencibia, who had a clear throwing lane, bobbled Odorizzi’s pitch which allowed Pillar to easily steal the base. It’s no surprise that the Blue Jays would try to exploit Arencibia ― after all he boasts a (below league average) 30% caught stealing percentage. Pillar was brought home when Cliff Pennington hit a liner into left that hung up just enough for Grady Sizemore to charge and dive for. However, the ball bounced off his glove and bounded into centerfield.

Josh Donaldson helped Toronto to knot the game at two by belting his 40th homer in the third. After clearly pitching around both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Odorizzi ― following a meeting on the mound by Jim Hickey ― struck out Russel Martin and Ryan Goins to preserve the tie.

But Odorizzi couldn’t hold the Blue Jays down much longer, and Pillar hit a leadoff homer in the fourth. Pennington followed with a ground rule double, and eventually scored on a Ben Revere single for a 4-2 lead. Odorizzi departed after five innings, having thrown 110 pitches.

Bautista welcomed reliever Kirby Yates with a leadoff blast to left, giving Toronto a commanding three-run lead. And though Arencibia crushed a first pitch homer (his sixth of the season) off Mark Lowe in the top of the eighth, the lefty didn’t allow another base runner. 20 year-old righty Roberto Osuna posted a perfect ninth on just 12 pitches for the save.

The New What Next

A marquee matchup between the student and his protégé: Chris Archer (12-12, 2.92 ERA) seeks to snap a four-start winless streak Saturday when he toes the rubber opposite of David Price (17-5, 2.34 ERA). Archer is 3-1 with a 0.93 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays this season. Price is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his past four starts. He’ll face his former team for the first time since July 28th, when he allowed five runs on seven hits in six innings, including two home runs by Rays C Curt Casali. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/26/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Souza RF
Longoria DH
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Shaffer 3B
Loney 1B
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

― As expected, the Rays have activated LHP Jake McGee from the DL.

― ‘Twas a nice night for baseball under the stars. Sure, the Tampa Bay Rays lost, but that’s besides the point. Thanks to all who showed up to our watch party tonight, and this season overall. We may try to host something in October, depending on which former Rays are in the postseason ― I’m looking at you David Price‬, Ben Zobrist, and Wade Davis (not you, Joe Maddon). If not, we’re looking forward to 2016. As always, go Rays!

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― Sooo good:

Tampa Bay Rays and MLB Issue Comments on Proposal to Move the Braves Spring Training Home to St. Pete

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Three days after a plan was unveiled to move the Atlanta Braves Spring Training home to St. Petersburg ― a proposal put together by former Major League star Gary Sheffield and St. Petersburg developer Darryl LeClair ― Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays issued their first public comments (below).

Rays president Brian Auld quickly made his first public comment on the proposal:

The Rays appreciate MLB’s attention to this matter. We fully agree with and support their statement, he said in a statement when asked for comment by the media.

Major League Baseball issued the following statement this morning:

Earlier this week, Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays learned of the St. Petersburg Sports Park proposal for the first time.  Major League Baseball appreciates the support that it has received for the construction of Spring Training facilities throughout the State of Florida. The most pressing need, however, is the construction of a Major League-quality facility for the Rays.

Major League Baseball is committed to working with the Rays to secure a new ballpark in cooperation with the Tampa Bay region.  This can only happen with the support of local political and business leaders.

Incidentally, Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium) opined the proposal could mean one of three things:

  1. The Rays & MLB are assuming the Rays will be gone from Tampa Bay in a decade or so, thus diminishing any negative impact of a Braves spring training relocation. In fact, it could be positioned as a consolation prize for Pinellas County.
  2. The Rays & MLB want to stay in Tampa Bay, but are using the pressure on Pinellas County’s limited tourist tax bonding capacity to force St. Pete’s hand.  Forced to make a decision about where bed tax revenues would be best-spent, the city could allow the Rays permission to begin negotiating for new stadium sites.
  3. The Rays & MLB want a taxpayer-funded stadium at Toytown and – unable to negotiate with Pinellas County right now – the Rays have coordinated with the Braves, MLB, and developers to orchestrate a bait-and-switch.  The proposed 10,000-seat stadium becomes a 25,000-seat stadium and the Rays move closer to the bay bridges.  The Braves could even share Bright House Networks Field in Clearwater without major expenditures.

Pransky was quick to note that while option three is a longshot, all three theories could mean a considerable bump in leverage for the Rays as they continue to push for a new stadium.

We’ll continue to follow this story as it breaks.