Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Walk-It-Off Against the Jays, 4-3; More on Archer, McGee, and Kiermaier

Joey Butler and Matt Andriese celebrate with Tim Beckham after Beckham's two-run walk-off single to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 on Saturday. Petersburg, Fla. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Steve Nesius)
Joey Butler and Matt Andriese celebrate with Tim Beckham after Beckham’s two-run walk-off single to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 on Saturday. Petersburg, Fla. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

The Tampa Bay Rays rallied for a pair of two-out runs in the bottom of the ninth on Saturday, subsequently walking away with a 4-3 walk off victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. It was just their third walkoff win of the year. At 79-82 on the season, and with a game left to play, the Rays look to end the 2015 campaign Sunday afternoon with 80 wins. Tampa Bay took a 1-0 lead in the first inning when John Jaso hit a leadoff homer to right field, his fifth of the season.

It also gave the Rays 15 players with at least five homers, tying an MLB record.

Toronto countered with a run in the third, tying the game. Chad Pennington and Ben Revere hit back-to-back singles to start the inning against RHP Chris Archer. Josh Donaldson went down swinging on three pitches, but Jose Bautista came up with an RBI single to left, his 114th RBI of the year. Yet Archer limited the damage and retired the next two batters. He didn’t allow another runner past first for the remainder of his start.

Archer and manager Kevin Cash came to consensus in the bottom of the fifth inning, it was best for the righty to end his season right then and there, just 72 pitches into his outing. Archer insisted that he didn’t feel anything wrong, rather: “I just didn’t feel like myself.”

Archer conceded that he felt some fatigue going into his start, stemming from a career-high workload of 207 innings. When the hurler told the staff he’d had enough Cash made the decision to get him out of the game.

I told them how I felt, and we made the decision that there was really no reason to continue to push it, Archer said. I definitely gave the team all I had this season. … I wanted to pitch deeper, but bigger picture, there was no point if I feel tired at all to push it at this point. … Just general arm fatigue, nothing crazy.

Archer allowed just one run on five hits over his five innings, finishing the season with a 12-13 record,and  a 3.23 ERA/2.91 FIP, racking up a single season franchise best 252 strikeouts.

Toronto took the lead in the sixth inning off reliever Brandon Gomes. Gomes took the mound with the game tied at one and hit Jose Bautista with a 1-2 slider to start the frame. Five pitches later, the ever dangerous Edwin Encarnacion lined a two-run homer to left (his 39th of the season) giving the Blue Jays a 3-1 lead. The Rays refused to roll over and play dead in the seventh inning, however, and the team drew within a run when Asdrubal Cabrera homered to right, his 15th of the season.

It was the first hit off starter Marco Estrada since Jaso’s first inning blast. Before the homer, the righty retired 14 consecutive batters and 17 of 18.

The good guys kept the game within a run thanks to scoreless relief work by CJ Riefenhauser, Steve Geltz, Jake McGee and Alex Colome. A side note, McGee averaged 92.6 mph (topping out at 94.7 mph) with his fastball ― down four mph from his average velocity. It’s hard to say whether this was an anomaly due to sample size, or if there’s something there.

Finally in the ninth, Tampa Bay did something rare and unusual: the team walked it off against the Blue Jays’ plus closer, Roberto Osuna. Grady Sizemore led off the inning with a double to left-center. However, Evan Longoria reached for an outside fastball and popped out to first, and Cabrera went down looking after getting ahead 3-0. Steven Souza Jr. and James Loney worked a pair of walks, loading the bases for Tim Beckham, who was playing second for the injured Logan Forsythe. Beckham to the first pitch ― a fastball over the other third of the plate ― for a strike, then lined a two-run single to left for the win.

Felt good to get the hit, Beckham said after the game. The past couple of days I haven’t felt myself at the plate. I just wanted to zero in, and it felt good to be put in a situation like that, to challenge myself when I’m struggling.

The New What Next

This is it my friends, the final game of a rather interesting season for Tampa Bay. Matt Moore (2-4, 5.84 ERA) will get the start for the Rays on Sunday, opposite of either Mark Buehrle or Drew Hutchison. Moore is trending upward after pitching into the seventh inning in three consecutive starts. Prior to that stretch, he had gone five innings or fewer in his first eight starts of the season. Toronto has yet to officially announce a starter for the game, but if left-hander Mark Buehrle is up for it, he’ll get the ball for two innings. Buehrle tossed 6-2/3 innings on Friday night against Tampa Bay, which left him two innings shy of reaching 200 innings for the 15th consecutive year. If Buehrle isn’t physically capable of doing that, then the outing will go to RHP Drew Hutchison. You can read more about Moore in our series preview.

Rays 10/4/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Mahtook CF
Longoria 3B
Cabrera SS
Souza RF
Loney 1B
Beckham 2B
Butler DH
Maile C
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness

― Kevin Kiermaier left the game after feeling back tightness during his eighth inning at-bat. He is not expected to play in today’s finale.

― Logan Forsythe said his right foot remained too sore to play Saturday, after being hit by a pitch on Tuesday. He wouldn’t rule out playing this afternoon.

― Alex Cobb took a big step in his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery on Saturday when he got to throw for the first time. The righty made 20 tosses on flat ground with head athletic trainer Ron Porterfield. “It was fun,” Cobb said. “I couldn’t wait.”

― Jake McGee made his 297th appearance for Tampa Bay, surpassing Joel Peralta’s team record.

― The Rays improved to 46-48 in their MLB-most 94th game decided by two or fewer runs.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: ‘Pen Blows Lead Again, Casali Shut Down, Forsythe Named Team MVP

Luke Maile and Erasmo Ramirez make an adjustment in the second inning of the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)
Luke Maile and Erasmo Ramirez make an adjustment in the second inning of the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)
After taking a 4-1 lead in the fifth inning against Mark Buehrle, the AL East division champions answered with four runs in the sixth, rolling past the Tampa Bay Rays by an 8-4 margin. The loss ended the Rays’ hopes of finishing with a .500 record, as Tampa Bay fell to 78-82 on the season with two to go. It, too, was a microcosm of why the players will be spending October at home for the second consecutive year.

Erasmo Ramirez limited Toronto to just one run for the game’s only tally over the first five innings. The righty worked in and out of trouble all along, though to his credit he was able to coax a good number of grounders from the Jays’ productive bats (eight singles and three ground ball outs). More than a few of those singles sound holes due to defensive placement ― call it luck dragonesque.

Tampa Bay took a 4-1 lead into the sixth inning, after Mikie Mahtook belted a long three-run homer to left field. It was Mahtook’s eighth homer of the season, and third in six at-bats off Buehrle. He became just the second player to hit three homers off the lefty in a season. The other: Matt LeCroy with the Twins in 2005.

The lead, however, was short lived. Russell Martin started a one-out rally against Ramirez with a single to center. Troy Tulowitzki singled to left, and then Kevin Pillar lined an RBI double past a diving Joey Butler in left to make it 4-2. Ramirez, who scattered a career-high 10 hits, departed for Enny Romero.

Following in the footsteps of his contemporaries, Romero couldn’t hold the lead. Ryan Goins tripled to right, plating two runs to tie the game at four. With a runner at third and just one out, Ben Revere hit a sacrifice-fly to right giving Toronto a one-run advantage.

Andrew Bellatti started the sixth and Edwin Encarnacion belted his 38th homer of the season off the Porch in center field. Chris Colabello followed with triple off the B-ring catwalk in left field, and Martin followed blasted a two-run homer to left (his 23rd) for an 8-4 lead. Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), Toronto now has scored 28 runs on 49 hits in the last four games against the Rays, collecting 10 homers in the process.

The New What Next

Chris Archer does have something to pitch for this afternoon, even though the W/L record says otherwise. According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Archer acknowledged that the toll of 207 innings over 33 starts (plus the All-Star Game) has left him with “a little fatigue” and throwing at about 85-90 percent.

Archer — 2-5, 5.09 in his past 10 starts — will take the mound Saturday seeing an opportunity for “a growth moment” in his continuing quest to improve:

It’s been a long season, and I think that one of the biggest things I can learn is how to be effective when I’m not feeling 100 percent, he said There’s no way I want to go out the way I did that last outing,” Archer said. So I’m happy to be able to go out there and have another shot at their lineup, and really finish on a stronger note. Not necessarily the numbers but as far as what I can control, I want to display that I can do a much better job of controlling that.

Right-hander Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.15) will take the mound opposite of Archer. During his last two outings against Tampa Bay, Estrada has allowed just five hits over 16-2/3 scoreless innings. This will be his final tune-up before the ALDS. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 10/3/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso LF
Sizemore DH
Longoria 3B
Cabrera SS
Souza RF
Loney 1B
Beckham 2B
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Brandon Guyer was hit three times by Buehrle Friday night, extending his team season record to 24 — six shy of majors-leading Cubs 1BAnthony Rizzo. Per Topkin, it was the first time a batter was hit three times by the same pitcher since 2006, when Toronto’s Reed Johnson was plunked thrice by Tampa Bay LHP Casey Fossum.

— The Rays shut down Curt Casali for the remainder of the season, not wanting to risk a recurrence of a left hamstring strain that could impact his winter work as he should enter spring training as the starting catcher.

To his credit he has grinder it out, Rays skipper Kevin Cash said. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense for him to go out there, catch three innings, have a couple at-bats. … We’ve got to be smart with him. We want him to have a good offseason, a normal offseason and continue getting better.

— Logan Forsythe will end the season as the Rays’ MVP. Forsythe was slated platoon duty at second base at the beginning of the season until Nick Franklin strained an oblique toward the end of spring training, leading to the chance to play every day.

The 28 year-old utility player seized the opportunity and led all American League second basemen with 17 home runs, 68 RBI and an .803 OPS, essentially replacing the production the team lost in trading Ben Zobrist. Instead of discussing whether or not Kevin Kiermaier is deserving of a contract extension, Perhaps we should be talking about Forsythe.

 

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays ― the Final Series Preview of the Year

John Jaso hits a single to right field off of pitcher Jose Fernandez during the third inning on October 1, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
John Jaso hits a single to right field off of pitcher Jose Fernandez during the third inning on October 1, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
The end is nigh. The Tampa Bay Rays have come full circle from the start of the season to now, and they are set to start the final series of the season on Friday when the Toronto Blue Jays come to town.

In my estimation, the Rays are playing for three things: Pride, the desire to end things on a high note, and the ability to end the season with a .500 record. However, to accomplish those things may be easier said than done ― we all saw first hand what Toronto is capable of when the Jays sunk Tampa Bay in a three game sweep last weekend.

Tampa Bay is coming off a three game sweep of the Miami Marlins; their first since July 10-12 when they took three from the Houston Astros. Coming off a pair of losses against the Orioles, the Blue Jays are still in the fight for the best record in the American League with the Royals. That is, don’t expect either team to roll over and allow the other to take advantage.

Kevin Cash will throw Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Archer, and Matt Moore over the next three days. After allowing a two-run homer to David Ortiz in the first inning on September 24th, Ramirez (11-6, 3.65 ERA)  held Boston scoreless over the next six innings, earning his 11th win of the year. In 18 starts with at least two runs of support this season, he is 11-1 with a 2.87 ERA. The righty has worked seven innings in three straight starts, and is 11-5 with a 2.99 ERA since moving into rotation full time. Ramirez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 18 starts. Archer (12-13, 3.26 ERA) experienced his worst outing of the season in his last start against Toronto, allowing nine runs on 10 hits in 3-2/3 innings, including five walks and two home runs. Moore (2-4, 5.84 ERA) gave Tampa Bay his third consecutive quality start en route to his fifth win of the year on Tuesday. Moore is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA in five starts since his September 5 recall from Triple-A Durham.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.
Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.
Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.76 ERA) enters his start Friday 8-2/3 innings shy of hitting the 200-inning plateau for the 15th consecutive season. Warren Spahn, Don Sutton and Gaylord Perry are the only ones to have done it. The quick working lefty took a no-decision in his last start, giving up three earned runs across six innings on Sunday. He gave up eight hits and two walks while striking out one. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (4-8), Logan Forsythe (10-25, 4 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (7-20, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, RBI), James Loney (7-27, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (16-50, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Mikie Mahtook (2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Daniel Nava (4-13, 2B, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-9, HR, RBI, BB)

Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.15 ERA) has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 outings while posting a 2.63 ERA over that stretch. Estrada did not factor into the decision on Monday against Baltimore, surrendering four hits, three earned runs and a walk over 7-1/3 innings. He struck out two. The righty enjoyed his third consecutive quality start, capping off a strong September. Estrada was sharp with his control as well, throwing 58 of 82 pitches for strikes, though he induced just seven whiffs. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, 2B, BB), Logan Forsythe (3-8, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-4, RBI), James Loney (2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Grady Sizemore (1-4, BB)

Sunday’s starter is TBA.

Noteworthiness

― The Rays have homered in a season high 11 consecutive games.

― Tampa Bay has played in an MLB most 93 games decided by one or two runs; they are 45-48 overall.

― The Rays and Marlins played the first regular-season interleague game in October in major-league history on Thursday. There have been 617 such meetings in World Series play.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win second Straight, 6-4

Evan Longoria crosses home plate to score off of a base-clearing double with the bases loaded by Grady Sizemore during the fifth inning. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Evan Longoria crosses home plate to score off of a base-clearing double with the bases loaded by Grady Sizemore during the fifth inning. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
The Tampa Bay Rays continued their push to end the season on a high note on Wednesday, scoring four two-out runs in the fifth inning en route to a 6-4 win over Miami. At 77-81, Tampa Bay has equaled last year’s win total, and has won the season series with the Marlins one game left.

Drew Smyly, who took the mound for Tampa Bay, put together another encouraging start. The lefty allowed just one run on three hits, while walking three and fanning eight. He allowed two runs or fewer in eight of 12 starts this season, also tying the record for most September strikeouts by a Rays pitcher at 45. The record was previously held by Scott Kazmir.

Orestes Destrade (Fox Sports Florida) hinted that Smyly would likely undergo extensive rest and rehabilitation on his left shoulder in the offseason. It is pretty amazing when you consider that Drew worked his way back from what could have been a career ending injury. Still, there’s no certainty that the proverbial shoe won’t drop on Smyly at some point. The team will undoubtedly do what it can, between now and Spring Training, to give Smyly the best opportunity to succeed moving forward.

Meanwhile, down by one in the fourth inning, the Rays got on the board against Jarred Cosart. John Jaso and Steven Souza Jr. each singled to start the inning. After the Marlins righty uncorked a wild pitch, Evan Longoria walked to load the bases. Grady Sizemore struck out, but Asdrubal Cabrera followed with sacrifice-fly to center field, tying the game one.

Tampa Bay took a 2-1 lead in the fifth on Nick Franklin’s third homer of the season, a line drive off Jarred Cosart that landed just beneath the Ray Tank.

They weren’t done scoring. The Rays then loaded the bases on two walks and an infield hit ― a play that was originally ruled an out at second, but overturned on replay. Sizemore, who went down swinging with the bases loaded an inning earlier, doubled down the left field line, clearing the bases and giving Tampa Bay four run advantage.

Miami cut the lead to 5-2 against Brandon Gomes in the seventh, after Miguel Rojas plated a run on a two-out RBI single to center, scoring J.T. Realmuto, who reached on a double. Yet Tampa Bay answered with three consecutive hits in the bottom of the seventh, ultimately tacking on another run on Cabrera’s RBI single that scored Longoria from third.

Yet the Marlins weren’t going down without a fight, and Miami cut the lead by a run in the eighth, after Justin Bour grounded into a double play with runners on the corners against Enny Romero.

Then in the ninth inning, Brad Boxberger allowed a two-out run on a single by Dee Gordon (his 198th hit of the year). However, Boxberger got Christian Yelich to ground to first to end the contest and preserve the victory.

The New What Next

Jake Odorizzi (8-9, 3.49) will make his final start of the season, opposite of Jose Fernandez (6-0, 2.91 ERA). Odorizzi has allowed multiple home runs in three of his five September starts, after doing so only twice in his first 22 starts this season. Fernandez, who attended high school in Tampa, is 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA on the road this season. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 10/1/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso DH
Souza RF
Longoria 3B
Sizemore LF
Arencibia C
Loney 1B
Beckham SS
Kiermaier CF
Franklin 2B
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— In spite of his 2015 woes, the much maligned Brad Boxberger became the fifth Rays pitcher to save 40 games in a season — joining Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Roberto Hernandez, and Danys Baez. Boxberger is now tied for the AL lead in saves with Huston Street of the Angels, who has been shutdown for the remainder of the regular season with a mild groin strain.

 

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Moore, Rays Sink Marlins, 4-2

Matt Moore pitches during the first inning of a game against the Miami Marlins on September 29, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Matt Moore pitches during the first inning of a game against the Miami Marlins on September 29, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Matt Moore posted his third consecutive quality start on Tuesday night, hurling seven strong innings while allowing just one run. Although Moore wasn’t credited with the win, the Tampa Bay Rays were able to come up with a victory, 4-2 over the Marlins. Tampa Bay won the first of a six-game home stand to improve to 76-81.

What follows are a few highlights from the game.

― Matt Moore allowed a first inning run on back-to-back doubles by Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich to start the game. After the lefty was credited with a throwing error that allowed Yelich to advance to third, Moore settled in, retiring 19 of the next 25 hitters, and allowing only two other Marlins to get as far as second base.

Over the span of his seven inning start, Moore scattered just a run on seven hits and a walk, while fanning three. Moore was able to coax a pair of double plays in the last two innings, helping him to throw an efficient 95 pitches (66 strikes). In Moore’s last three starts (totaling 20-2/3 innings), he’s allowed only three total runs. The lefty has allowed just three walks in his last three starts, and posted an impressive 69% strike ratio (203 strikes out of 293 pitches). In short, Moore’s throwing quality strikes, limiting the amount of solid contact he allows, and forcing opposing batters to earn their way on base. This bodes well for the Rays going forward.

― The Marlins tied the game against the Rays bullpen in the eighth. Xavier Cedeno allowed an infield single to Yelich with one out, when Beckham threw a ball in the dirt past James Loney. Alex Colome replaced Cedeno and wild pitched Yelich to second. Martin Prado followed with an RBI single to center, tying the score. Yet Colome struck out the next two batters, giving the Rays a chance to take the lead back in the bottom of the inning. It was a growth moment of sorts for Colome, who was able to limit the damage.

― Brad Boxberger closed out the game with a 1-2-3 ninth inning for his 39th save of the season, putting Colome on the winning side of the ledger. Don’t look now, but Boxberger has allowed just two base runners (both walks) in his last four appearances (totaling 3-1/3 innings). Granted he’s only struck out three ― I’d reckon a 1.5 K/BB in that stretch isn’t that impressive ― Boxberger has been able to work around the free passes while allowing no runs, ergot no blown saves.

― I don’t always agree with @sternfan10, but when I do it’s because he makes a cogent argument:

― It isn’t known the type of contract Asdrubal Cabrera will seek in the offseason. Would he give the team a discount because of his rapport with Kevin Cash? Would he be willing to sign a two year contract with an option for a third? It seems like the Rays will likely to hand the shortstop job to either Nick Franklin, Tim Beckham, or a platoon of both next season. However, I’m not certain if that dynamic duo could touch Cabrera’s performance, even if that performance was around league average. Asdrubal has compiled a -4.5 UZR and a -7 DRS this season, though that’s an improvement over his last couple of seasons…and his 2.2 WAR certainly doesn’t hurt.

To that end, I’d beg the question: Can Nick Franklin supply the same offense that Cabrera did? Whatever the case, I doubt you’ll see either Franklin or Beckham make a play like this, including the accurate throw to first:

The New What Next

Drew Smyly (4-2, 3.26 ERA) will take the ball on Wednesday, opposite of Jarred Cosart (2-4, 2.15 ERA). Smyly has a 4-0 record and 2.70 ERA in his last seven starts, with 44 strikeouts and 12 walks in 40 innings of work. Cosart boasts a 1.37 ERA in four September starts. The righty is 3-1 (1.24) in four starts lifetime against the Rays. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/30/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso LF
Souza RF
Longoria 3B
Sizemore DH
Cabrera SS
Loney 1B
Arencibia C
Kiermaier CF
Franklin 2B
Smyly LHP

Noteworthiness

― Per Mark Simon (ESPN), Kevin Kiermaier has saved a pristine 37 runs this season so far. It would be illogical for him to not win the Gold Glove in center.

― Smyly hasn’t allowed a homer to a LHB since September 6, 2014.