Bingol’s assertion: Following his seven inning no-hit bid on September 14th, it became evident that Erasmo Ramirez has earned a spot in the Rays rotation moving forward. It’s an interesting premise, as Ramirez was viewed as a disposable piece toward the beginning of the season. Without further ado, Bingol’s piece follows in part.
Bingo writes:
On the whole, however, Erasmo Ramirez has taken the steps forward necessary to emerge as a viable average starting pitcher in the major leagues. Following two seasons in which he struggled mightily by failing to strike out batters, generate ground balls, and limit home runs, Ramirez has put it together in 2015.
His new 19.2 percent strikeout rate now hovers about league average, while his 6.6 percent walk rate is a large drop from the past two seasons and is better than league average. The same can be said for his 47.4 percent ground ball rate.
Despite a roughly average strikeout rate, Ramirez actually excels with an 11.5 percent whiff rate, a number above league average (data per FanGraphs).
But why has Ramirez been so effective? Bingol finds that the changeup has been a game changer for Erasmo,
Batters are making contact on outside pitches at a rate 5.5 percent lower than league average. A lot success has to do with the pitch that got him to the majors – his stellar changeup.
It is an interesting pitch on several fronts. First, Ramirez owns one of the ten slowest changeups in baseball (minimum 130 innings) and is among the top dozen by changeup usage rate. Based on its current 59.3 percent ground-ball and 25.9 percent whiff rates, as well as his ability to throw it anywhere he wants in the bottom half of the strike zone, one could go so far as to call it an elite pitch (data per Fangraphs).
This season, Ramirez has been using the pitch more against same-handed batters in lieu of his curveball to great effect. The pitch’s ground-ball rate is currently almost 10 percent higher than its career rate. However, save for a slight increase in chase percentage (42.3 percent in 2015 versus 40.7 percent career), the movement and velocity of the pitch have not changed much. The same could be said about his four-seam fastball, which is a roughly average offering.
Bingol also finds that in lieu of another plus offspeed pitch, Ramirez has used his changeup to great effect, especially against righties:
This season, Ramirez has been using the pitch more against same-handed batters in lieu of his curveball to great effect.
The pitch’s ground-ball rate is currently almost 10 percent higher than its career rate. However, save for a slight increase in chase percentage (42.3 percent in 2015 versus 40.7 percent career), the movement and velocity of the pitch have not changed much. The same could be said about his four-seam fastball, which is a roughly average offering.
When all is said and done, Ramirez hasn’t been satisfied with being viewed as just a fifth starter, and he’s acclimated himself to a being a middle of the rotation hurler ― a pitcher Bingol views as an integral part of next season’s rotation:
If he can build on his 2015 progress, there may even be a bit more ceiling in his outlook, and outings like Monday may come as less of a surprise.
As is, he demonstrates an elite changeup that effectively gets batters out from both sides of the plate, features two average or better fastballs, and has made enough improvements on the breaking balls to compensate for the current lack of consistency. Ramirez has shown enough to be penciled in as a rotation piece for the Rays’ 2016 season.
I’d encourage you to read this article in full (linked). The question now begs, what will the Rays do with Nathan Karns?