Rays vs Marlins series preview Archives

TNWN: Rays vs Marlins — a Citrus Series preview, part two

August 3, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

How sweep it is! The Rays returned home after sweeping the Red Sox in three games at Fenway. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following the rare Friday off-day, the Tampa Bay Rays will play host to the Miami Marlins for a two-game set, starting Saturday. The Rays are coming off a three-game sweep of the Red Sox, while the Marlins dropped two-of-three to the Twins.

After dropping seven of 10 games against the Yankees, White Sox, and Red Sox after the All-Star Break, Tampa Bay bounced back to win six of their next seven, including four against the reigning World Series champs. Tampa Bay’s offense finally woke and has plated five or more runs in five consecutive games (an average of 8.4 runs per game).

The Rays typically struggle with situational productivity, however, over the last three series, they hit .300, .303, and .290 with runners in scoring position. That’s something they will try to continue against the low scoring Marlins.

Miami has performed to a 55 wRC+ over the last 14 days, and a -27.2 wRAA. Over the same stretch, the pitching staff maintained an overall 4.66 ERA and 4.68 FIP (5.75 ERA and 4.89 FIP for the starters, 2.86 ERA but a 4.33 FIP for the relievers). While Miami’s bullpen has been good, it certainly doesn’t help their cause that Sergio Romo, Zac Gallen, Nick Anderson, and Trevor Richards are no longer with the team. Anderson, who showed well on Thursday, and Richards were dealt to Tampa Bay at the deadline.

The Rays enter the series with sole possession of the second Wildcard spot, 1/2 game up on the Athletics, and are two games behind Cleveland for the top Wildcard spot. While not a must-win series per se, a series win would allow the Rays the maintain their position in the playoff chase, while also creating even more separation in the win and loss columns while the Yankees and the third-place Red Sox beat up on one another, in the Bronx.

The Rays are 2-0 in the Citrus Series, having shut out the Marlins over the previous two games (but only scoring five runs themselves in the process).

Pitching Probables

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will likely through Jalen Beeks (5-1, 3.61 ERA) behind opener Diego Castillo (1-6, 3.73 ERA), and Yonny Chirinos (8-5, 3.70 ERA). Don Mattingly will counter with Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 4.93 ERA), and Caleb Smith (7-4, 3.43 ERA).

Diego Castillo worked as an opener last Friday for the first time this season and delivered a perfect first inning. The right-hander has a 3.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB across 41 innings and is 8-for-9 in save opportunities on the season.

Jalen Beeks allowed one run on four hits and two walks over four innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday. He struck out one. Beeks kept the Blue Jays scoreless over his first two innings as a bulk reliever, but he was nicked for a run in the sixth Brandon Drury’s RBI single. The left-hander bounced back to deliver a scoreless seventh inning before his exit after 73 pitches (42 strikes, 57% strike rate). Beeks has a 3.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 2.19 K/BB over 72-1/3 innings this season.

Elieser Hernandez allowed one run on three hits and two walks while striking out two over four innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Hernandez was recently moved back into the starting rotation, and even though his outing lasted just four innings, he held Arizona to just one run. The 24-year-old maintains a 4.93 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 41 strikeouts over 38-1/3 innings this season. He relies primarily on a whiffy 91 mph four-seam fastball and a 79 mph slider that is below hitting speed and sweeps across the zone, while also mixing in an 82 mph changeup with some arm-side fade. Hernandez has held Tampa Bay scoreless in three relief innings extending back to 2018.

Yonny Chirinos allowed seven runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out four across four innings on Sunday against Toronto. The Blue Jays jumped on Chirinos for two runs in the second inning, two in the third, and three in the fifth, although the Rays offense put up 10 runs and ultimately win the ballgame. Chirinos uncharacteristically struggled with his command at times, firing 56 of 93 pitches for strikes (60% strike rate). Ideally, this is just a bump in the road for Chirinos, who owns a 3.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 106 punchouts across 121-2/3 innings this season.

Caleb Smith allowed four runs on four hits and a walk over seven innings on Monday, while striking out nine. Miami’s offense staked Smith to a big lead with a six-run second inning, and he made it hold up. The southpaw maintains a 3.43 ERA and a 3.84 K/BB through 97 innings. Over his career, Smith is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (1-4), Ji-Man Choi (1-4), Avisail Garcia (1-2, HR, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (1-2, 2B, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2)

TNWN: Rays vs. Marlins — an Interleague series preview

May 14, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Behold, the new and improved Marlins Park, where the Rays will face the fish over the next two days.

On Tuesday evening, the Tampa Bay Rays will start a two-game Interleague series against their in-state rivals, the Miami Marlins. The Rays are coming off a series loss against the Yankees, while the Marlins were swept in a rain-shortened, two-game series against the Mets.

Tampa Bay has to be careful. After getting off to a great start of the season, the Rays are a tepid 5-6 in May including the two games they just dropped at home to New York. It was just their second series loss of the season and oddly enough, both have come at Trop. They now lead the AL East by just a half a game over New York.

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, in their first 24 games, the Rays scored three or fewer runs seven times and two or less only three times. In their last 15, they’ve scored three or fewer runs nine times, and two or less seven. Related, for as good as their pitching has been, they are 5-11 when scoring three or less, 19-4 with more.

What’s more, they are hitting .237 wRISP (24th in the majors and .138 (25th) with the bases loaded.

We need to have some guys start swinging the bats a little better. Myself being at the top of that. We haven’t been able to generate offense as of late besides (Saturday). We have to get back to clicking on all cylinders and hopefully, we can do that in Miami come Tuesday.
— Kevin Kiermaier

This is a huge series for the Rays because a couple of wins against the worst team in the league could help to stop the bleeding some. It is even more important that they take a couple of games in Miami since they have three games against the Yankees on the road this upcoming weekend, followed by two at home against the Dodgers and four on the road against Cleveland.

The Rays went an abysmal 2-4 against the Marlins in 2018, but are 6-3 in Interleague play this season.

Noteworthiness

Over the life of the series, Kevin Cash will lean on Charlie Morton (3-0, 2.64 ERA), and likely Jalen Beeks (2-0, 2.48 ERA), who will follow an opener in the series finale. Don Mattingly will respond with Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.11 ERA) and Jose Urena (1-5, 4.82 ERA).

Charlie Morton allowed two runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts and four walks over five innings on Wednesday. Morton left with a deficit, but the Rays were able to tie the game late and get Morton off the hook. The right-hander is putting together a strong start to the season, allowing more than two runs in just one of his eight starts. He does have a 4.3 BB/9, but opposing hitters are batting .208 overall, and he’s given up just two home runs. Morton is 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 56 strikeouts across 44-1/3 innings this season. He is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA over 12 career starts against the Marlins.

Caleb Smith allowed two earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out 11 over 6-2/3 innings on Tuesday. Smith stumbled early — allowing an earned run in the first and third innings — but shut down the Cubs’ offense for the balance of his start. He also generated 15 called strikes and 20 swinging strikes. Smith has paired a 0.89 WHIP and 2.11 ERA with 56 strikeouts across 42-2/3 innings this season. He is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in one career start against the Rays (3-1/3 innings of work). Smith relies primarily on a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball and a swing-and-miss 83 mph slider, while also mixing in an 83 mph — you guessed it, whiffy — changeup. Key Matchup: Guillermo Heredia (1-2, 2B, 2 RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed one run on three hits over 3-1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. He fanned three and walked none. The southpaw followed Ryne Stanek and continues to pitch well when utilized as a bulk reliever. With the loss of Tyler Glasnow to the IL, there is the potential for Beeks to temporarily join the starting rotation. He has a 2.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 2.9 K/BB across 21 innings to begin the season.

Jose Urena allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks while striking out three over seven innings on Wednesday. Urena allowed eight baserunners, although he was able to escape trouble most of the night. After giving four combined home runs in his last two starts, Urena kept the ball in the yard and generated 75% groundballs. He has a 1-5 record with a 4.82 ERA and 6.2 K/9 over eight starts this season. Urena is 0-0 with a 0.84 in seven games (one start) against the Rays. He relies primarily on a worm-killer 96 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and an 86 mph 12-6 slider while also mixing in a whiffy 91 mph changeup with slight arm-side fade. Key Matchups: Travis d’Arnaud (2-5, RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-3)

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins part two — an interleague series preview

July 20, 2018 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Coming off a 1.2 IP/1 ER/3 K performance in the All-Star Game, Blake Snell could be the “TBA” starter on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to kick off the ceremonial second half of the season against the Miami Marlins at home, in the final arm of the 2018 Citrus Series, starting Friday. The Rays dropped two of three against Miami at the start of July.

Tampa Bay is coming off a 1-3 road trek in Minneapolis, although they outscored the Twins 35-33 thanks in part to a 19-6 shellacking in the third game of the series. Meanwhile, the Marlins took two of three from the Phillies ahead of the All-Star Break.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The series against the Twins was an odd one. On one hand, the Rays pushed across 35 runs — including 12 with two outs — and went 24-58 with runners in scoring position (.414 batting average). Yet the pitching staff royally crapped the bed, relinquishing 33 runs — including 16 when they should have slammed the door shut on Minnesota — and allowing a .404 opponent batting average wRISP (19-47). Either way, the Rays’ offense has been clicking of late, averaging five runs per game over a 22-game stretch.

Credit where it’s due, the Marlins have won four of their last five series, including the above mentioned three-game set against Tampa Bay in Miami. Similarly though, the Rays have won five of their last six meetings, including a pair of five-game win streaks.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

It fails to be seen what impact the loss of Wilson Ramos might have on the team, and who will take his place while he is on the shelf. Can Carlos Gomez lead the team in Ramos’ absence? After all, Gomez has sizzled throughout the month of July, slashing .343 BA/.439 OBP/.543 SLG/.982 OPS with an ISO of .200, and lowering his strikeout rate some 3-1/2% — from 23% to 19.5%. Will Kevin Kiermaier ever get toasty in the leadoff spot which he, frankly, shouldn’t be hitting out of?

Whatever the case, Tampa Bay looks to exact some revenge on Miami, and further increase its win/loss separation since it starts the “second half” as fringe contenders in the American League Wildcard race — 8.5 games behind the slumping Mariners, who currently hold the final Wildcard spot. A hot streak could give the Rays some solid footing as they seek their first playoff berth since 2013, while a stretch of sloppy play out the gate could change their presumed holding position at the trade deadline, to that of sellers.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Nathan Eovaldi (3-4, 4.59 ERA), a TBA hurler thought to be Blake Snell, and Chris Archer (3-4, 4.29 ERA). Don Mattingly will respond with Dan Straily (3-4, 4.29 ERA), Pablo Lopez (1-1, 6.35 ERA), and Trevor Richards (3-5, 4.74 ERA).

(Stats credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi allowed eight runs on nine hits in a loss to Minnesota last Friday. Eovaldi fanned just one and walked two over 2-2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has had an uneven campaign since coming off the DL at the end of May, putting together three scoreless starts in nine outings, but coughing up four runs or more in four others. Friday’s performance was his worst yet, which really doesn’t bode well for he or the team, especially since the Rays have noted they are open to dealing the soon to be free-agent at, or before, the trade deadline.

Dan Straily didn’t factor into the decision in the 5-4 extra-inning win over the Brewers on Wednesday. Straily allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out seven. The right-hander left the game after 101 pitches (67 strikes, 66% strike rate) and in line for the win, but Drew Steckenrider blew the lead in the eighth inning. Straily has now turned in four quality starts in a row, allowing him to lower his ERA to 4.29. This season Straily has relied primarily on his 91 mph four-seam fastball boasting some added backspin and an 84 mph slider, while also mixing in a whiffy 85 mph circle changeup that has some natural sink to it. He is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in his career against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-4), Mallex Smith (1-2, RBI, BB)

The Rays haven’t listed a starter for the middle game of the series, and I’ll update this piece when a hurler becomes clear.

Pablo Lopez gave up five runs on six hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings against the Brewers on Tuesday. He took the loss. The Brewers made their hits count in this one, as they were able to pummel Lopez early for the first big league loss of his short career. He settled down later on, not allowing a hit or a walk over his final four frames of work. This season Lopez has relied primarily on his 93 mph worm-killer sinker and a 93 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 78 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and a whiffy 86 mph changeup. All of his offerings boast natural sinking action.

Chris Archer lasted just 4-1/3 innings on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and a walk while striking out seven. The erratic right-hander failed to finish five innings for the second straight start, laboring with just 59 strikes on 93 pitches (63% strike rate). On the bright side, he induced 16 swinging strikes (27% SwStr), allowing him to supplement his line via the strikeout column. It was only his second start since returning from the DL, so maybe he still has some rust to shake off. For Archer, the hope is for a turnaround in the second half, pushing him more toward his 3.79 FIP.

Trevor Richards threw 3-/23 innings in a no-decision against Washington on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits, while striking out five but walking seven (a season-high). Richards couldn’t put himself in line for a win thanks to his command issues, resulting in him tossing 87 pitches over the course of his outing. Overall, Richards’ 5.24 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP through 56-2/3 innings. Richards allowed four runs on nine hits (including a homer) against the Rays on July 3. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-2, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Daniel Robertson (1-2, 2B), Mallex Smith (2-2, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-3)

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins — an interleague series preview

July 2, 2018 By belowaverage Leave a Comment

Mallex Smith’s first homer of the season solidified the Rays come-from-behind win against Astros on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays head south to Miami for the first three games of the annual Citrus Series matchup against the Marlins. The return visit at Tropicana Field is set right after the All-Star Break. The Rays are coming off an 8-1 home stand, having beat three playoff contending teams in the Yankees, Nationals, and Astros. The Marlins took two of three from the Mets this past weekend.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Both teams are having drastically different seasons, although they enter this series in a similar spot in their respective divisions. Tampa Bay enters the series 13-games out of first place in the AL East, and 11 out of the second Wildcard spot, while the Marlins are 15-½ games out in the NL East. Despite that, the Rays are entering one of the easiest stretches of play, with the next 16 games against the sub .500 Marlins, Mets, Tigers and Twins.

An easy stretch of play? Yes … albeit a crucial one for Tampa Bay, which has an opportunity to accumulate some tallies on the left side of the ledger. Baseball Prospectus gives the Rays a 5.6% chance of a playoff berth, odds that increase with each win. Granted they’ll need a lot of help along the way, and a postseason berth is far from an inevitability. But, they have an opportunity to play a role in their idealized outcome, and that is predicated on victories. Besides winning is fun, and so is watching the youth movement go to work.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash is projected to lean on Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 4.08 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 3.76 ERA), and the Rays ‘pen (19-19, 3.45 ERA). Don Mattingly will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (2-5, 6.14 ERA), Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.06 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi was incredible in his debut on May 30, dazzling with six no-hit innings. Yet the right-hander got knocked around prior to his last start, allowing eight homers over a four-game stretch. Nevertheless Eovaldi returned to form and earned the win against Washington on Tuesday after he allowed just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings, while recording nine strikeouts. The right-hander lowered his ERA to 4.08 (from 4.91) and has performed to a 0.82 WHIP with a 6/1 K/BB over 35-1/3 innings.

I definitely feel good about the way I’ve been pitching, Eovaldi told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times). I’ve kind of surprised myself with how I’ve been filling up the strike zone with all my pitches. I’m going to try to repeat that and incorporate the curveball more.

Eovaldi spent parts of three seasons with the Marlins, going 13-27 with a 4.10 ERA in 63 starts.

It’s just another team, he said. Back when I made my first start against them, it had a little more meaning.

Wei Yin Chen was a tough-luck loser Wednesday after he allowed just one run on five hits and a walk over six innings against Arizona. He struck out five. Chen threw 60 of his 88 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) and allowed just one extra-base hit as he stifled the Diamondbacks for much of the evening. The Marlins’ bats couldn’t pick him up though — getting blanked into the bottom of the ninth. The southpaw has thrown a pair of quality starts in his last three outings, however, the results for the bulk of the year have been significantly worse. Over 55-2/3 innings, Chen has a 6.14 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 1.64 K/BB. He is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 21 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-3), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-13, 3B, HR, 2 RBI)

Ryan Yarbrough allowed one just earned run on seven hits and a walk over 6-1/3 innings of hard luck loss to Houston on Thursday. He struck out four. Yarbrough entered the game with two outs in the second inning and worked into and out of trouble for a considerable amount of his appearance. However, the southpaw managed to coax 10 groundballs and allowed only one extra-base hit — a home run to Jake Marisnick — which limited the damage. He also threw 62 of 95 pitches for strikes. It was a nice bounce back performance for Yarbrough, who allowed 15 earned runs over four of his last six outings.

Trevor Richards gave up three runs on six hits and two walks while fanning three batters over 4.0 innings against the Diamondbacks. Arizona got to Richards early, scratching all of their runs across over the first two frames. Even though Richards was BABIP’d, his command was shaky from the start, as 28 of his 75 pitches went for balls (37% ball rate). Overall, Richards was hot and cold in the month June, following up strong quality starts with subpar work. This season he has relied primarily on his 92 mph four-seam fastball and a whiffy 84 mph changeup swith ome natural sink to it, while also mixing in a hard 81 mph 12-6 curveball.

Neither the Rays nor the Marlins have named a starter for the series finale, on Wednesday. I will update things when a hurler is announced.

Noteworthiness

— Is Carlos Gomez finally turning things around? Gomez got two of the team’s eight hits on Sunday, his fourth multihit game in his past 13 games. He’s hitting .310 over that stretch.

— Part of the Rays recent spate of success comes courtesy of the pitching staff, which has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight games, a club record. Their ERA during their nine-game homestand was 1.39.

— Sunday was the 36th one-run game for Tampa Bay this season, out of 83 (43.3% of their games). They, however, improved to 16-20 in one-run games.

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins — the Citrus Series preview

May 1, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The guys in or by the batting cage (Derek Norris and Logan Morrison), along with Evan Longoria, have uncharacteristically low BABIPs at the moment. Once the luck dragons stop nipping, they’ll turn their season’s around. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a 2-6 roadtrip, and a below .500 record for the month of April, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the Sunshine State, where they’ll face the Miami Marlins over the next four days — both in Miami and St. Pete.

The last couple of games in Toronto were both winnable, and frustrating. Not only were the Rays facing a team that hadn’t won a series at home, but the Jays were also 2-8 at the Rogers Centre. Yet when you go 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position, and only plate nine runs — seven in the first game alone — it’s kind of hard to win games.

(Stats: ESPN)

After a brief panic attack following the series finale loss, Bradley Neveu (DRaysBay) calmly reminded me, well…all of us, that things will get better, and reinforcements are on the way:

Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison and Derek Norris are all running some really low BABIPs right now. They will come up, and the results will come with it.

The long relievers in the bullpen Austin Pruitt, Erasmo Ramirez and Chase Whitley have performed exceptionally well lately. We should see one of them in the mid-to-late innings most nights when Archer doesn’t start.

Jake Odorizzi will be back tomorrow to bolster the starting rotation. Outfielder Colby Rasmuslooks ready to join the Rays within the next few days. Infielder Matt Duffy should be back in May. Catcher Wilson Ramos is projected to be with the team a month after that. All of these players are significant upgrades to this team; a team that is already performing like a .500 club. And who knows, maybe we’ll see the hot-hitting Patrick Leonard or any of the other prospects up with the Rays soon.

Longoria (.258 BABIP), Morrison (.236 BABIP) and Norris (.220 BABIP) are performing well under their career norms as it relates to BABIP, meaning they’ve been incredibly unlucky thus far. As for the activation of Odorizzi from the DL, that gives Rays manager Kevin Cash the ability to rely on a more dynamic bullpen, not one that has to cover innings for a player who isn’t active.

Lest we not forget that when looking at their Pythagorean and BaseRuns expectations, the Rays should be above .500. The Marlins, on the other hand, are underperforming Tampa Bay. If anything, this series can be viewed as a momentum building one, going into the forthcoming series’ with the Blue Jays and Royals. That is, if Tampa Bay can get back on the winning side of the ledger.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi (1-1. 4.15 ERA, 5.69 FIP), Alex Cobb (1-2, 4.66 ERA, 4.41 FIP), Blake Snell (0-2, 3.42 ERA, 5.16 FIP), and Matt Andriese (1-1, 3.86 ERA, 5.28 FIP). Don Mattingly will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (2-1, 4.71 ERA, 4.47 FIP), Edinson Volquez (0-3, 4.44 ERA, 4.43 FIP), Adam Conley (1-1, 6.75 ERA, 4.55 FIP), and Dan Straily (1-2, 4.15 ERA, 3.77 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Odorizzi will return from the disabled list to make his first start since April 15. He is 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 14 career Interleague starts, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one start at Marlins Park. As expected, Odorizzi experienced no issues coming out of his simulated game a few days earlier, so the Rays have formally named his as their starter for Monday’s series opener.

Chen was lifted after five innings and 83 pitches in Philadelphia, after posting a season-high seven no-hit innings on 100 pitches in Seattle. Chen, who spent four years with the Orioles, has 117-1/3 innings against Tampa Bay under his belt — the most against any team. The five-pitch pitcher (92 mph four-seam fastball, 75 mph curveball, 83 mph changeup, 91 mph sinker and 85 mph slider) is 5-6 with a 3.76 ERA in 20 career starts against the Rays. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (4-9, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-13, 3B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (11-40, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB), Logan Morrison (1-3), Derek Norris (3-12, HR, RBI, BB), Colby Rasmus (1-3, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)

Cobb, on the positive end of the spectrum, allowed just two earned runs over five innings on Wednesday in Baltimore. He, however, continued to struggle with his changeup, although he’s making progress. In his last start he threw his splitter 32 times, and got 18 swings (four whiffs).

Volquez has given up five first inning runs in five starts, and is susceptible to getting beaten up early. That’s good for the Rays, as they’ve scored 25 first inning runs; second only to Milwaukee, and 22.52% of their 121 total runs. Volquez is still seeking his first win in Miami. He is allowing loud, hard contact, and 51.9% of the balls put in play against the right-hander have been line drives or fly balls. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but Volquez is 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA across six starts against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (3-6), Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, BB), Evan Longoria (5-17, 2B, 4 RBI), Brad Miller (2-3, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-5, 3B, RBI, BB), Colby Rasmus (7-16, 3 2B, HR, 7 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-3, HR, 3 RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (7-19, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB)

Snell continues to struggle with his fastball command, failing to last more than five innings in four consecutive starts. He needed 96 pitches to get 15 outs in his last start. Snell appears to have a problem with consistent windups, forcing his pitches well out of the zone. His 18:18 strike to ball ratio through 26-1/3 innings is a touch worrisome to say the least…not that you haven’t heard that one before, or anything.

Conley allowed nine runs in 1-2/3 innings in his last star, after not allowing more than six previously. The southpaw also had gone six innings in each of his last two starts. The three-pitch hurler, that relies primarily on his 90 mph four-seam fastball, 85 mph slider and 83 mph changeup, is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one start against the Rays. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2, 2B, BB)

Andriese snapped a streak of 18 starts in which he threw six innings or fewer, when he pitched seven and allowed three earned runs on Saturday. However, by surrendering a home run to Justin Smoak, he extended another streak to six straight starts in which he’s given up the long-ball.

Straily, a strike thrower, had a string of 12 straight innings without a walk snapped when he issued three consecutive free passes in his loss to the Pirates. Straily still has thrown well overall, fanning 29 batter in 26 innings this season. So far, Straily has depended upon a whiffy 91 mph four-seam fastball, and an 85 mph worm burner of a slider. He’s also mixed in an 84 mph circle change with natural sink. Key matchups: Brad Miller (1-4, 2B, BB), Logan Morrison (1-3), Colby Rasmus (2-5)

Noteworthiness

— The feel good story of the series, according to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times):

Rays rookie Chih-Wei Hu will be thrilled to see countryman Wie-Yin Chen pitch in person in the majors tonight when he starts for the Marlins. Even better would be for Hu to get in the game, as they are the only two current big-leaguers from Taiwan. “This will be a very big story in Taiwan,” Hu said. “I look at him like a superstar. I’m excited to see him pitch. It’s a big thing for me and it’s a big thing for Taiwan. A bigger thing would be if he’s pitching and I’m pitching in the game. That would be really cool.” Hu said that before leaving for spring training, he told Chen, “I’ll see you in the big leagues.” Tonight, he will.