X-Rays Spex – Page 348 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

More projections for the 2016 Tampa Bay Rays (Eephus League, ZiPS continued)

Friday marked the first full-squad workout for the Tampa Bay Rays, and they’ll open the Grapefruit League season against the Nationals on Wednesday. With the entire team now fully immersed in Spring Training, we decided to take a look at some of the other 2016 projections.

Eephus League depth projection

A rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. (Ballpark Graphic: Eephus League.)

For starters, located above is a rough depth chart for the Rays, with rounded projected 2016 WAR totals for each player. The chart was constructed by considering the WAR totals listed on FanGraphs, along with the author’s own reasoning…whatever that may be.

Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. are projected to see the bulk of the playing time in the outfield, rounded out by Brandon Guyer who is the presumed bench depth. The infield looks to be composed Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Logan Forsythe, and James Loney.

What I find interesting, both Jennings and Loney have been the fodder of trade speculation since the end of the 2015 season, yet there they are ― projected to take an active role in the Rays’ 2016 squad.

More curious, Logan Morrison and Steve Pearce project to platoon the DH spot, and nothing else. I think the more likely scenario would be Morrison platooning first with Loney, Pearce sharing a platoon role in the outfield, and Morrison and Pearce sharing DH duties.

Unfortunately for Richie Shaffer, it seems probable that he will start the season in Triple-A, likely not returning to the bigs until Loney is dealt, or a roster spot is opened due to an injury.

Eephus League also sees Curt Casali and Hank Conger sharing the catching duties. True, Rene Rivera was rather abysmal in the batter’s box last season, yet the team awarded the maligned catcher with a raise by way of arbitration. Moreover, both Casali and Conger have options remaining, making it a bit odd that the former wouldn’t at least start the year in Durham.

ZiPS

Rays projected runs, runs batted in, home runs, and stolen bases.

The runs/RBI/HR/stolen bases chart above is fairly straight forward. ZiPS projects the team to plate 117 more runs than PECOTA (at 713). The 830 runs and 770 RBI would be a vast improvement over last season, when Tampa Bay scored just 644 times on the backs of 612 RBI. It bears mentioning, however, the Rays won’t have 18 position players this on the 25-man roster this season, so the projected numbers are a bit skewed.

In some cases, the projected offensive totals appear to be rather conservative as compared to last season. Allow me to explain.

Take for example Evan Longoria, who crossed the plate 74 times and drove in 73 in 2015. Longo also led the team with 21 homers, while swiping three bags. It, by all accounts, was a down year for the face of the franchise. Looking toward this season, ZiPS projects that he will barely improve, a trend that also holds true for Souza, Guyer, Kiermaier, and Tim Beckham.

Other players are projected to make a larger impact on the team this season over last ― Jennings, Loney, Nick Franklin, Casali, Rivera, Shaffer and Mikie Mahtook. The impact of the newest acquisitions ― Pearce, Miller, Morrison, and Dickerson ― should also be taken into consideration. Whether Franklin, Casali, Shaffer, and Mahtook crack the Opening Day roster fails to be seen at the moment.

In short, ZiPS projects a more offensively dynamic team that puts the ball in play and drives in runs as a team, and swipes bags at a far greater clip than the season previous. To put things into perspective, each player is projected to average 46 runs and 43 RBI, up from 36 and 34 (respectively).

Screen Shot 2016-02-15 at 11.35.48 AM — 2016 Rays ZiPS pitching projections.

As for pitching ― and as it relates to WAR ― ZiPS projects regressions from Archer (5.3 WAR last season) and Ramirez (2.4 WAR last season), and improvements from Odorizzi and the left-handed tandem of Smyly and Moore ― both of whom spent a significant amount of time on the DL in 2015.

Rather surprisingly, Alex Cobb looks to bounce back from his stint on the DL following Tommy John surgery in May of last year. Cobb is projected to post a rather healthy 2.4 WAR in 111 innings of work. Do I think it’s reasonable for Cobb to amass the numbers above? No.

A quick bounce back from Tommy John surgery is something that rarely happens…just ask Matt Moore. Furthermore, to assume that Cobb would eat up that many innings, when he isn’t expected back until the beginning of August, just doesn’t seem plausible.

Why projections?

You may now be wondering why or how we use projections?

According to Dan Szymborski (ESPN Insider, creator of ZiPS), projections are a way to filter through the glut of player data that’s readily available at your finger tips:

Projections help cut down on an overwhelming amount of player data now readily available, Szymborski said. While there are always things computer projections won’t do well, one thing computers do manage well is a dispassionate, ‘just-the-facts’ guess.

In short, projections give you an initial impression of a player’s upcoming-season value, without that player’s driven opinion of himself. From there, it’s your choice to agree with the projection as the player’s most probable season outcome.

Unfortunately projections provide you with a black-and-white answer to a question that may best be answered in gray. Projections do not account for random variance, the reason an individual player projection may wind up off the mark. If anything, projections are better used as a starting point rather than a conclusion. Any given projection system isn’t designed to perfectly predict the future, rather it is designed to give the best estimate about how good a player is.

Noteworthiness

In case you missed it a couple of other projection pieces have been published on X-Rays Spex. Here’s what may have alluded you:

― On February 12, we began dissecting the 2016 ZiPS projections.

― On February 17, PECOTA projected Tampa Bay to lead the AL East on the back of 91 wins.

Commissioner Manfred discusses possibility of expansion in the near future

(Photo Credit: MLB.com)

New MLB commissioner Rob Manfred met with the media last week to discuss the present and future state of Major League Baseball. Among the usual topics discussed were the stadium issues in Oakland and St. Petersburg, the possible implementation of the DH in the National League, and a renewed discussion of expanding Major League Baseball from 30 to 32 teams.

Manfred was quoted as saying:

The idea of 16 teams in each league is appealing for a couple of reasons. One being the idea of growing and expanding is indicative of the fact that our game is a growth business, Manfred said. From a more practical perspective, I’ve learned a long time ago from those who understand scheduling, is that 4’s work better than 5’s and the idea of having an even number in each league would be a good thing.

Cities linked to possible expansion or relocation are Montreal, Charlotte, Portland, San Antonio, and Mexico City.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, it is no secret that the Tampa/St. Petersburg, along with Oakland, are rumored to be in danger of losing their MLB clubs due to poor attendance and outdated stadiums. With the alleged urgency to return Major League Baseball to Montreal, it seems likely that it will be the next city to land a Major League ball-club, be that through expansion or relocation.

Our beloved Rays have been linked with Montreal due to the unresolved stadium and attendance issues. However, with the recent agreement between the team and the City of St. Petersburg, the Rays have been granted the opportunity to explore the region for a new stadium site. Because of it, there is renewed optimism that the Rays will remain in the Tampa Bay area for the foreseeable future.

With this in mind, let’s explore the possibility of expansion and the effect it may have on baseball.

The addition of the Designated Hitter

First off the DH would have to be implemented, which would offend many baseball purists ― many of whom also were opposed the addition of the Wild Card. We all know how much teams and fans have benefited from playing more meaningful games in September. With the addition of the Wild Card, instant replay, and the possibility of a pitch clock in the near future, MLB is trying to evolve our beloved game to draw interest from younger audiences; who apparently don’t have attention spans beyond two-hours.

The DH throughout baseball seems to be the next natural progression. Purists argue it will take away managing strategies (the double switch) and trivializes the purity of the game. Although there are pitchers who can “mash” like Madison Bumgarner, who’s hit 11 homers over his career, the sad reality is that far more pitchers hit like Bartolo Colon (a career .094 batting average over 18 years). Fans want more offense and in order to capture younger audiences we need to move away from this.

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9zMvOG2ick&feature=youtu.be”]

Realignment

The next obvious change due to expansion would be re-alignment. MLB would move from their current six-five team divisions to eight-four team divisions. That means that Tampa Bay probably wouldn’t be in the same division as the Yankees or the Red-Sox.

Divisions could be organized geographically, though a good number of teams might have to switch leagues or divisions for expansion to happen. So what would the new divisions look like? We can only speculate, but here’s my take on what the baseball landscape might look like in 10 years if expansion were to occur.

The American League

The Northeast Division: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Montreal Expos*. It would be in baseball’s best interest to keep the marquee rivalries intact, while also creating new regional rivalries. Montreal is going to get another chance at baseball. Everything about this division makes sense geographically.

The Atlantic (Beltway) Division: New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals. I struggled with not putting the Mets and Yankees in the same division, but New York can handle two teams in different divisions within the same league. The current NL East rivalries would remain, and the addition of Baltimore would make this division very interesting.

The Southeast Division: Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds. The Reds seem like an odd fit, but geographically it works. The Marlins and Braves would maintain their rivalry from the NL East, while the Rays and Reds would be the new kids on the block. A caveat, neither team would play against the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, or Cardinals on a regular basis ― teams that draw the most out of market fans. Nevertheless, this is the ideal division for small market teams due to the southeast being more economically challenged, in comparison to the northeast region of this country.

The North (Great Lakes) Division: Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers. These four industrial, blue collar cities have a lot in common, and their passion for baseball is unprecedented. Along with the “Northeast” this division would be a no-brainer.

The National League

The Midwest (Gateway) Division: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White-Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals. This is by far the juiciest division. Close proximity will have little effect on the rivalries in this division, seeing how both regions have rabid fan-bases. The “Midwest” could be the beast the AL East currently is.

The Southwest Division: Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Mexico City Dragons*. It’s no secret Major League Baseball wants a team in Mexico and there is a demand for it. With more exhibition, and now regular season games being showcased in Mexico City, this seems like the next logical step in expanding baseball internationally. Of course there’s always a possibility Austin, San Antonio or Las Vegas could land a team as well.

The Northwest (The Sweater) Division: Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, Portland Athletics*. Oakland much like St. Petersburg is in grave danger of losing their team. Portland has been in the mix for for several years, so if Oakland cannot settle its stadium stalemate, don’t be surprised if Portland makes a push to land the A’s.

The Pacific Division: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres. This is another great division. All of the main rivalries remain intact, and California has it’s own little division that will surely entice some of the baseball’s best players who want to play in 77 degree weather year round.

Conclusion

Reshuffling Major League Baseball into eight divisions was quite a challenging task. Of course this all is purely speculative. The new divisions may not be as geographically convenient, and perhaps it’s in the best interest of MLB to keep the AL and NL intact. Whatever the case, the possibility of expansion in baseball is present, and there’s no doubt that if this happens some teams will be shifting leagues or perhaps relocating to other cities.

Rays Fan Fest 2016; Baseball Forever campaign kickoff

Two great Tampa Bay Rays-centric events are taking place on Saturday ― Rays Fan Fest and Baseball Forever’s first pitch. Details for both exciting events follow below.

Rays Fan Fest 2016

Details via team press release:

The 2016 Tampa Bay Rays Fan Fest presented by the Tampa Bay Times is set for for Saturday, February 27 from 11 a.m. until 4 p.m. at Tropicana Field. Season Ticket Holders are granted early entry to Fan Fest beginning at 10 a.m. Admission and parking are free.

Fan Fest will feature a number of exciting activities for kids including Reading with the Rays, presented by Suncoast Credit Union; speed pitch, batting cages and home run derby in the All Children’s Hospital Johns Hopkins Medicine Kids Interactive Zone; and baseball clinics in the infield, Kids Run the Bases and a high five station with Rays players, courtesy of Sagicor Life Insurance Company. Rays players, coaches and mascots Raymond and DJ Kitty will appear at various stations throughout the day.

Fans are encouraged to visit the Bright House Networks Phone-A-Friend stage in center field from 1-3 p.m. to have a Rays player call a friend or family member and receive the most up-to-date information on Bright House Networks Products. This year, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Curt Casali and Richie Shaffer are scheduled to participate in Phone-A-Friend.

The Rays will use their social media accounts to give fans even more opportunities for team and player interaction and exclusive prizes through Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat contests during Fan Fest. The team’s main Twitter account-@RaysBaseball-will serve as a communication hub where fans can get up-to-date information on events happening throughout the day and answers to questions about Fan Fest. Fans can also visit the Social Media Zone presented by tampabay.com for photo opportunities with Rays trophies and awards, players and oversized emojis.

To promote “Reading with the Rays,” the club’s summer reading program presented by Suncoast Credit Union and supported by the Tampa Bay Times Newspaper in Education, Rays players will read select stories on the Pepsi Stage. The Pepsi Stage will also host entertainment throughout the day. Rays Manager Kevin Cash and Hall of Fame baseball writer Peter Gammons will be on hand for Q-and-A sessions. In addition, the stage will also feature panels with Rays coaches, broadcasters, prospects and team officials.

Fans will have the opportunity to win premium prizes through enter-to-win contests drawn on the hour during Fan Fest. Prizes include an iPad mini presented by Bright House Networks; a set of four new tires presented by Kauffman Tire; a complimentary one-night stay plus food and beverage credit presented by the Vinoy Renaissance St. Petersburg Resort and Golf Club; a 43-inch TV, an iPad mini and an Apple TV unit presented by CDW; and a golf foursome presented by the Ritz-Carlton Sarasota.

Representatives from the Rays Ticket Sales Department will be available to assist fans throughout the day in the purchase of ticket plans, group tickets, spring training tickets, party area and suite rentals. The first 200 people to purchase a Big 22 Plan at Fan Fest will receive an autographed Kevin Kiermaier print. Rays Season Ticket Holders will be able to access an exclusive photo station to have their pictures taken with Rays players. Season Ticket Holders will also receive a credit loaded onto their Rays Card that can be used on concessions and merchandise on the day of Fan Fest. Tours will be given of the Draft Room, a new club for Season Ticket Holders, for a first look at the renovations and to learn more about what the club will offer.

For a sixth year, the Rays Charity Yard Sale will feature unique, game-used and autographed memorabilia dating back to the club’s inaugural season. All proceeds benefit the Rays Baseball Foundation. Proceeds from Don Zimmer collectables will benefit the Clearwater for Youth Don Zimmer Memorial Scholarship Fund for local high school seniors. An autograph station featuring more than 40 former major league players will also be available throughout the day to kids 14 and under and fans who purchased Rays player-specific autograph passes in advance at raysbaseball.com. Autograph passes have already sold out and will not be available for purchase at Fan Fest.

The Rays Charity Yard Sale and autograph sales at the 2015 Rays Fan Fest raised more than $110,000 for the ALS Association Florida Chapter and the Rays Baseball Foundation.

Fans can call 888-FAN-RAYS or visit raysbaseball.com/FanFest for more information about 2016 Rays Fan Fest.

Baseball Forever’s first pitch

(Photo Credit: Baseball Forever/the City of St. Petersburg)

While you’re in the vicinity of the Trop, head over to Ferg’s at 5:00 pm for Baseball Forever’s first pitch. Per the official website, the Baseball Forever Campaign is an initiative of the City of St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce, residents, and fans of the Tampa Bay Rays to keep the team in St. Petersburg.

Mayor Kriseman will hand out 200 ‘Baseball Forever’ t-shirts to fans who believe Downtown St. Petersburg should be the forever home of the Tampa Bay Rays.

More information on the event can be found at the official Facebook page.

The X-Rays Spex guide to Spring Training 2016

Erasmo Ramirez is all smiles in Port Charlotte. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Sunday marked the first public workout of the 2016 season for the Tampa Bay Rays. After a long and cold offseason, most of us are incredibly excited by the prospect of watching baseball any capacity ― meaningful or otherwise. Yet even with the excitement that this wonderful time of year brings, the purpose Spring Training shouldn’t be lost.

With that in mind, join X-Rays Spex as we attempt to clue you in on what to look for over the next month plus.

Sample sizes are so small that any meaningful conclusion about a player’s performance cannot truly be determined

Everyday starters, and players getting serious roster consideration, will get around 60 at bats during the spring. The small sample size isn’t enough to give an accurate depiction of what to expect out of a batter. Why? Among other things, the first statistic to stabilize for hitters is strikeout percentage, and it takes at least 60 plate appearances to do so. Ultimately hitters aren’t worried about looking for the perfect pitch to incur damage upon, they are trying to get their timing down. Anything above and beyond that is icing on the cake.

Conditions for hitting in south Florida are vastly different from The Trop

The Rays play in a dome where there is less air resistance on the ball in flight, and wind is not a factor. Compare that with Charlotte Sports Park, where a stiff breeze blowing in can turn a home run into a routine fly ball.

Last season catcher Luke Maile hit a ninth inning double that should have left the confines of Steinbrenner Field, in Tampa. However, the wind resistance applied to the ball was enough to keep it in the park. True, that game took place in Tampa, not Port Charlotte, but you catch my drift.

Pitchers aren’t worried about setting up a hitter to freeze him with a nasty slider, rather they are concerned with staying healthy and building arm strength

Pitchers are focused on getting ready for the season, not getting batters out. It takes time for pitchers to build their arm strength. Dips in velocity are going to happen, homers are going to happen, and a pitcher might look like, well…crap prior to Opening Day. A handful of poor spring performances prior to Opening Day isn’t indicative of a pitchers future performance. A good example of that is Corey Kluber, the 2014 American League Cy Young Award winner. Kluber posited a gaudy 5.60 ERA in Spring Training, yet ended the season as the best pitcher in the AL.

Pitchers use Spring Training to work on pitches

It was written elsewhere:

The time for trial and error is now. Spending time during the season experimenting with a two-seam fastball or a circle change is not a good idea. That should be reserved for side sessions and bullpens. During Spring Training, however, there is absolutely no negative impact to trying out some changes that could eventually be beneficial. Sometimes pitchers will go out to the mound only throwing fastballs away in order to work on their command over the outer half of the plate. Sometimes a pitcher will only work inside and give up a couple of bombs from missing spots.

‘Nuff said.

Players are going to make errors, and that’s fine

Cloudless skies turn poppers into doubles, and errors from players playing out of position aren’t going to happen during the regular season. Spring Training is a time for players, many of whom are untested at the Major League level, to prove their worth. Instead, watch how a player jumps on the ball. Is he quick? Does he have good range? Do his movements seem fluid or stilted? What about his arm? Also, pay attention to where a player is stationed.

Take note of who plays where and for how long

Earlier this week, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote that Kevin Cash “Plans to use relievers in front of closer Brad Boxberger to work in more than one inning and, at times, to get more than three outs.” And while it’s not nearly as unconventional as last season’s plan to lift a lesser experienced starter two times through the batting order, it is still a different approach.

Citing the need to fill the void left by trading Jake McGee, Matt Silverman called the new plan a way to increase flexibility and maximize their options in what will be a relatively inexperienced bullpen:

It would be great if our starter goes seven innings, hand it off to our reliever in the eighth, close it out in the ninth and win a ball game. And if that happens, fantastic.

But we want to make sure we have contingencies where we don’t have issues covering innings if there is an injury to a starter, if a guy doesn’t go very deep, we want to make sure we have the length to be able to have a fresh pen the next day and not have it affect our club that day and for a couple of games down the road.

The plan is to experiment in exhibition games to see how it works. Alex Colome, Xavier Cedeno, Enny Romero, Danny Farquhar and Andrew Bellatti would all seem to be candidates for extended duty, and Cash suggested they could use this group approach rather than having a set set-up man:

That’s something we’re going to have to find out in spring training — how those guys can do it. Can they bounce back? Are they able to come in after one-third of an inning and sit for 15 minutes while we’re scoring runs and go back out? We’re going to have to figure that out with some guys. Because the way we were stacked up last year, it was a lot of one-inning guys.

Watch for injuries

One week into the Spring Training game action last season, and the injury bug nipped a good number of teams ― Tampa Bay included. Hunter Pence broke his arm, Cliff Lee suffered a sore elbow, both Josh Reddick and Brandon Guyer incurred oblique injuries, Drew Smyly sustained a bout with tendonitis that masked a torn labrum, and both Marcus Stroman and Alex Cobb tore their anterior cruciate ligaments (ACL), with the latter missing the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Suffice it to say, a good number of those players missed a significant amount of time last season.

The win-loss record at the end of the spring means nothing

Oakland went 22-11 in the Cactus League last season, and Tampa Bay went on to post a +.500 record in the Grapefruit League. The positive Spring Training outcomes were ultimately meaningless for both teams. On the other hand, Texas went 9-19 and Houston went 12-12, and both teams appeared in the postseason.

Rays Spring Training update: day three

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer, left, throws a pitch during a spring training baseball workout in Port Charlotte, Fla., Sunday, Feb. 21, 2016. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

The new-look Tampa Bay Rays began Spring Training with postseason aspirations on Sunday. Unlike last season, all 33 pitchers and seven catchers were on hand for the first official workout. According to Kevin Cash the pitchers who threw did well.

However, before the team even took the field Sunday morning, Chris Archer handed out a tone-setting message by educating a pair of top pitching prospects, Jacob Faria and Blake Snell, on the tradition of the Rays staff.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the scene in the clubhouse:

Though Faria and Snell were not late, walking in at 8:28 with a team meeting set to start at 9, Archer, in front of reporters, told them that as minor-leaguers they needed to be there earlier, citing the legacy program passed down to him from James Shields and David Price.

You guys are the last two pitchers here,’ Archer said to them, with a group of reporters in front of his locker. You guys have zero service time. You got no right to be coming in after me, really. I get here super early. I wouldn’t expect you to be here at 6:30, but 8:30?

Archer’s message was heard loud and clear:

@ChrisArcher42 @TBTimes_Rays I’m here to learn from the best because I want to be the best. Appreciate you taking me under your wing Arch

— Jacob Faria (@JDFaria36) February 21, 2016

Talked to #Rays prospects Faria + Snell, both said they appreciated Archer calling them out for arrival time, will be there earlier Monday

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) February 21, 2016

Otherwise it was reportedly a good overall first day, although the team was handed two unexpected medical matters ― OF Steven Souza Jr. strained an intercostal muscle while taking swings in the batting cage, while C Justin O’Conner sustained a slight herniated disc.

Souza’s injury does not appear serious and he hopes to be ready when the position players begin their workouts on Friday. Officially listed as day-to-day, the Rays will wait a couple days to do an MRI and see how he feels.

Unfortunately for O’Conner, his injury is more serious as the catching prospect is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Though he wasn’t considered to be a candidate for an Opening Day roster spot, the Rays were hoping to see progress this season ― progress that will now be deferred by a month and a half.

Alex Cobb spoke with Topkin and said his recovery from May 2015 Tommy John surgery continues to go well, that he is throwing from a distance of 120 feet with no issues. Cobb expects to start throwing off the mound in mid-March, and is aiming for a late July/early August return to the fold.

We’ll update this piece when who is scheduled to throw a bullpen session is announced.

The New What Next

Day two of workouts for the 33 pitchers and seven catchers in camp. Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Andriese are among the starters scheduled to throw on Monday. Brad Boxberger, Danny Farquhar and Steve Geltz are among the relievers that will have bullpen sessions.

Alex Cobb, Jonny Venters, Neil Wagner and Chase Whitley ― four pitchers that are coming off Tommy John surgery in ― are expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions at some point in March.

As of late Sunday, all but Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Juniel Querecuto and Dayron Varona had reported to camp, leaving only five of 64 players that haven’t yet arrived. It’s just as well, the first full squad workout is not until Friday.