Rays pre-Spring Training workouts; 2016 ZiPS projections

New Rays OF/DH Corey Dickerson takes batting practice during a workout at Tropicana Field on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)
New Rays OF/DH Corey Dickerson takes batting practice during a workout at Tropicana Field on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Even though pitchers and catchers are not scheduled to report to camp for another eight days, 10 players took part in optional workouts at Tropicana Field on Wednesday. Also, at long last, Dan Syzmborski (Baseball Think Factory and FanGraphs) released his 2016 ZiPS projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Let’s delve into both subjects.

On Corey Dickerson, and the optional workouts at Tropicana Field

Newest acquisition OF Corey Dickerson joined fellow newcomer Steve Pearce, Rene Rivera, Tim Beckham and Brandon Guyer for the optional workout. Pitchers Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi Matt Moore, non-roster invite Mark Sappington, and Chase Whitley ― who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery ― were also at the Trop, joining several other players who were invited to MLB camp.

Dickerson, who is expected to add some thump to the Rays lineup, called the pre-Spring Training workouts important:

The addition of Dickerson (along with Pearce, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison) to the returning core of the lineup lengthens and balances things for Manager Kevin Cash:

The biggest thing is it lengthens us out a little bit, Cash said. There were plenty of times last year where we fell short. That’s not discrediting any of our players that we had out there, but we have some established hitters now that are going to lengthen and balance out our lineup.

He and the other offseason additions will also give Cash a better arrangement from which to choose when playing match-ups. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) points out, the addition of Dickerson further emphasizes the need to move James Loney, which would free first base for Pearce and Morrison, and create more DH at-bats for Dickerson.

Dan Syzmborski’s 2016 ZiPS projections for Tampa Bay

Let’s first start with a disclaimer from FanGraphs, where the Rays 2016 ZiPS projections can be seen in full:

ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. 

For the moment, we’ll be looking at the overall projections, and later we’ll look more deeply into things.

It too would be a good idea to first define the statistics mentioned in the chart (below).

  • BA (Batting Average): Rate of hits per at bat, calculated as H/AB.
  • OBP (On Base Percentage): Rate at which the batter reaches base, calculated as (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).
  • SLG (Slugging Percentage): Average number of total bases per at bat, calculated as Total Bases/AB.
  • OPS (On Base Plus Slugging): Combination of OBP and SLG, calculated as OBP+SLG.
  • wOBA (Weighted On Base Average): Combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
Tampa Bay Rays 2016 ZiPS projections (presumed members of the Opening Day roster)
Tampa Bay Rays 2016 ZiPS projections (presumed members of the Opening Day roster)

A few bulleted takeaways follow.

  • ZiPS paints Dickerson as the best hitter on the roster when speaking about weighted on base average (.326). While he posted a great .377 wOBA at Coors Field (an extreme hitters ballpark) Dickerson’s weighted on base average is projected to fall into average/above average territory at Tropicana Field (an extreme pitchers ballpark).
  • Sticking with wOBA, Dickerson is followed by a trifecta of hitters who are each projected to post a .323 weighted on base average: Longoria, Souza Jr., and Pearce.
  • On the subject of Longo, the Rays slugging third baseman seems primed for a similar season to that of 2015. It will be interesting to seen if he can exceed the ZiPS projections with the new and improved lineup, which will ideally offer him more protection.
  • Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) brought up an interesting point in his dissection of the peripheral projections:

There are a few other big swings in projections between the two systems, and two of them also come in the Rays outfield. ZiPS rates both Kevin Kiermaier and Desmond Jennings significantly higher than Steamer overall, and it’s a difference that matters. In the world of ZiPS, both of those guys are clear everyday players. For Steamer, they look more like guys you want to platoon. Which system is more right about Kiermaier will have a lot of bearing on the Rays’ fortunes over the next several years, and which system other teams believe is right about Jennings will have to do with what they’re currently offering the Rays for him in trades.

  • Logan Forsythe appears to be due for a regression from his .281 BA/.359 OBP/.444 SLG/.803 OPS/.350 wOBA 2015 team MVP season.

Noteworthiness

― According to Jeff Todd (MLB Trade Rumors), the Rays are in pursuit of a replacement for Jake McGee. Todd writes:

The Rays are in “advanced talks” with free agent righty Tommy Hunter, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. But Topkin cautions that Hunter is still also holding chats with other teams, possibly in search of a multi-year guarantee, suggesting that a signing with Tampa Bay is not imminent. And ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes that Hunter is still rehabbing after needing core muscle surgery this winter (Twitterlinks). The club is working on other possibilities as it looks to beef up a pen that has lost some options to trade. Ryan Webb is also under consideration, per the report, and the Rays have looked elsewhere as well — both on the free agent and trade markets.

― Mat Germain (DRaysBay) wrote about the potential replacements for McGee on the free-agent market, including Hunter.

― Danny Russell (DRaysBay) defended a claim that the Rays should pursue Tommy Hunter.

Rays meet with Hillsborough County representatives

(Photo Credit: Zack Hample)
(Photo Credit: Zack Hample)
On Friday the Tampa Bay Rays met with a dozen officials and business executives from Tampa and Hillsborough County, in a small conference room in downtown Tampa. According to reports, much of the two-hour meeting was spent explaining what the Rays mean when they talk about creating a “next generation” ballpark.

We’re really looking to tear up the old model, Rays President Brian Auld said.

While the specifics depend primarily on location, the Rays are looking to design their next home from scratch. Auld acknowledged that a new facility will likely be smaller, with different types of seats in a different configuration. It might also have a retractable roof, or it could boast a fixed translucent roof that allows natural sunlight to filter onto a natural playing surface.

The Rays conception of a new stadium is more than just a place to play a game:

We could see hosting Little League baseball tournaments, lacrosse tournaments, Auld said. I like the idea of just opening up the outfield walls and inviting the public in during the winter and just letting it be the coolest park in America. Those things are all on the table. We’re trying to figure out ways to do it.

Both sides agreed to meet again, probably monthly. There is no word on when the team will meet with Pinellas County officials and business leaders.

The meeting happened a day after the Rays outlined their their criteria for evaluating potential stadium sites. As I wrote on Friday, that criteria includes:

  • A catalyst for development: The ballpark site and surrounding area should offer now or in the future a wide range of entertainment, dining and retail amenities for the “come early, stay late” culture the Rays want.
  • Local authenticity: “It should be a celebration of Tampa Bay and include iconic elements that positively impact the ballpark brand, the brand of the team and the image of the region.”
  • Regional connectivity: In addition to being connected to existing and growing population centers and business district, the new ballpark should be close to existing or future mass transit.
  • Site accessibility: It should be easily accessible by road, and accommodate parking within walking distance of the stadium.
  • Size and geometry: Twenty acres and with the geometry needed for a professional baseball playing surface.
  • Financial feasibility and development readiness: The Rays say a public-private partnership is “critical.”

What is known, the team plans to spend a couple of months analyzing the regional business centers on both sides of the bay.

On that subject, Richard Danielson (Tampa Bay Times) wrote:

What the team learns about those submarkets will inform how big the ballpark is, what features it includes, how the seats are configured, what spaces it includes to create social interaction and other design features. The team wants a home field that boosts attendance, increases revenue and flips the balance of season ticket holders from the current mix of 70 percent individual and 30 percent business to the Major League Baseball standard, which is the opposite.

The elephant in the room, neither side discussed the topic of potential financing for the ballpark, which has the potential to cost anywhere from $400-million to $700-million.

The Rays’ dictated agenda avoided the subject altogether, with Melanie Lenz (the team’s Vice President) being quoted as saying:

It’s really hard to talk about financing a project that we don’t know what it’s going to look like and we don’t know where it’s going to be.

Ever the pragmatist, Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn recognized something that holds true for citizens in both Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, the Rays are going to have to come to the table with a significant amount of money:

I don’t know how much money ‘significant’ is, but I think it’s important that they be partners in this process. Taxpayers cannot bear the entire burden of a stadium.

The team agreed to spend at least six months evaluating sites so that St. Petersburg can make its case that their current home ― enhanced by future development ― is the Rays’ best long-term option.

The Process Report: Brad Miller – 2016 Player Card

From the folks at one of our favorite blogs, the Process Report:

As we count down the days until the blessed return of baseball we’ll be bringing snapshots from a variety of angles for each of the significant players on this year’s upcoming Rays team. The format will be similar for each player and then we want to take a look at an individual thing for each guy towards the end of each card.

Check out what they have to say about Brad Miller here: Brad Miller – 2016 Player Card

Rays outline criteria for potential stadium sites

Looking west to Tropicana Field. (Photo Credit: Mayor Rick Kriseman)
Looking west toward Tropicana Field. (Photo Credit: Mayor Rick Kriseman)

A month after the St. Petersburg City Council approved a memorandum of understanding allowing the Tampa Bay Rays to search both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties for a site to build the next revolutionary stadium, the team ― per the MOU ― sent representatives from the city of St. Petersburg their criteria for evaluating potential stadium sites. You can read that document below.

Their criteria*, as listed in the document, includes:

  • A catalyst for development: The ballpark site and surrounding area should offer now or in the future a wide range of entertainment, dining and retail amenities for the “come early, stay late” culture the Rays want.
  • Local authenticity: “It should be a celebration of Tampa Bay and include iconic elements that positively impact the ballpark brand, the brand of the team and the image of the region.”
  • Regional connectivity: In addition to being connected to existing and growing population centers and business district, the new ballpark should be close to existing or future mass transit.
  • Site accessibility: It should be easily accessible by road, and accommodate parking within walking distance of the stadium.
  • Size and geometry: Twenty acres and with the geometry needed for a professional baseball playing surface.
  • Financial feasibility and development readiness: The Rays say a public-private partnership is “critical.”

The Rays also said they would analyze “the strengths of regional business centers in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties including the municipalities of St. Petersburg and Tampa.” In layman’s terms, the team is narrowing its search to downtown St. Petersburg, mid-Pinellas (Toytown, Carillon, and Derby Lane), downtown Tampa, or the Westshore area. However, the search likely will not include the State Fairgrounds on the eastern side of Hillsborough. It is also thought the ConAgra site may be out of the mix because of the time it would take to turn the site over.

Glaringly absent from the document, however, is the estimated cost of a new facility, as well as how much the organization may be willing to contribute toward the construction and development costs. It should be noted, in 2008 the Rays were willing to chip in $150-million toward the construction of the waterfront “Sail” design in downtown St. Petersburg ― a total that is thought to be 25% – 30% of the cost of a new facility in today’s terms.

Team representatives are slated to meet with Hillsborough County’s stadium search committee for the first time Friday morning.

This process document contains the vision and criteria which will guide our search, said Rays VP Melanie Lenz in a statement. We look forward to taking a fresh look at all possibilities for our next generation ballpark.

The document outlining the teams criteria when assessing a potential stadium site. (Credit: Noah Pransky/Shadow of the Stadium)
The document outlining the Rays criteria when assessing potential stadium sites. (Credit: Noah Pransky/Shadow of the Stadium)

Keep checking back for updated details on this story.

*Bulleted descriptions courtesy of Margie Manning (Finance EditorTampa Bay Business Journal)

Hot-Stove: Rays, Smyly had arbitration hearing on Wednesday; Smyly wins hearing Thursday

Drew Smyly talks with media before a game in 2014. (Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)
Drew Smyly talks with media before a game in 2014. (Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Tampa Bay Rays Rays and LHP Drew Smyly had an arbitration hearing on Wednesday. Another hearing is expected to come Thursday, at which time an arbitration panel will award the lefty either a $3.75-million salary for the 2016 season ― the figure Smyly initially sought going into the off-season, or $3.2-million ― the figure submitted by the Rays.

Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) wrote about the arbitration hearing:

The 26-year-old Smyly came to the Rays by way of 2014’s three-team David Price blockbuster. Smyly had a dominant finish to that 2014 campaign following the trade — 1.70 ERA across seven starts — but lost a significant portion of his first full season with the Rays due to shoulder problems. After opening the year on the DL due to shoulder tendinitis, Smyly was activated in late April and made three starts before being diagnosed a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder. Smyly elected not to undergo surgery, which allowed him to pitch again i 2015 but also required a three-month stay on the disabled list. He returned in strong fashion, though, posting a 3.24 ERA with a 56-to-17 K/BB ratio in 50 innings across his final nine starts.

This will be Smyly’s second trip through the arbitration process. As a Super Two player, he landed a $2.65MM salary last offseason and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency. Because his future salaries will be based off of his 2016 salary, the outcome of the hearing carries much farther-reaching ramifications than the $550K that the two sides are presently debating.

The sum in question may seem trivial to some, although as several Major League executives explained to MLBTR last year at this time, teams feel a responsibility to manage a market that is shared by all 30 clubs. Because all arbitration cases are built on recent historical comparables, the slight increases would eventually compound and become more significant were every team simply to give in to what appear, on the surface, to be relatively trivial amounts.

Smyly is one of 16 arbitration cases around the league that remains unresolved, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. While some of those will be resolved prior to a hearing, it does appear that there will be a handful of cases settled via hearing in 2016.

February 4, 2016 update:

Drew Smyly won his arbitration case over the Tampa Bay Rays. Smyly will make $3.75-million in 2016; the team offered the lefty $3.2-million. The difference between Smyly and the team was only $550,000, however, the case went to hearing (per team policy) once figures were exchanged.

Previous to Thursday, Tampa Bay had been 6-0 in arbitration hearings.