Rays host pre-camp media session; ink one-year deal with Ryan Webb

No visa problems this year. Alex Colome throws during a workout Thursday at Charlotte Sports Park. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)
No visa problems this year. Alex Colome throws during a workout Thursday at Charlotte Sports Park. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

As of Thursday, nearly 50 Tampa Bay Rays players are already working out, with the first official session for pitchers and catchers set for Sunday morning.

In a pre-camp media session, President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman said the pieces are in place to contend for a playoff spot, with manager Kevin Cash agreeing whole-heartedly:

How can you not be excited? If you think we’re healthier, which we are right now, and we’ve added to our lineup. We thought  we made some really good adjustments at the end of the year, the last two months, and all they’ve done this offseason is brought some guys in that have a track record of hitting. So, yes.

“I think it’s a great computer,” Cash said when asked about Baseball Prospectus’ 91-win PECOTA projection.

In a piece for the Tampa Bay Times, Marc Topkin listed some highlights from the media session:

― New addition RHP Ryan Webb will add a needed ground ball pitcher to the bullpen, giving the Rays a weapon when they need a double play grounder. (More on Webb below)

― Cash said one  way to manage the Jake McGee-less bullpen is to have relievers able to go one-plus innings, which they will experiment with in spring training. He also said that while Brad Boxberger will be the closer there may not be a set set-up guy.

― Silverman said LH Matt Moore and LH Drew Smyly, who both returned last season from injuries, will come into camp “full go.” Silverman said there will be discussions with the medical staff on managing their workload.

― Team VP Rick Vaughn said there was still no official word on the proposed March trip to Cuba. There are reports President Obama will make a visit in the same March 21-22 window. No word if he will pitch an inning.

― Silverman said C Justin O’Conner is having back issues, and will be behind at start of camp. They will have an update in a few days.

― Cash said Smyly went and stayed with a physical therapist to work on shoulder during off-season and team has gotten “rave reviews.”

― Cash said RHP Jake Odorizzi “put on a little bit more muscle, more weight” and will benefit from more experience

― Cash said OF Desmond Jennings, who missed most of last season with left knee and dental issues, is in a good spot. He took off some weight to “lighten” load on his legs (ie, troublesome left knee) playing OF and to recover quicker.

Silverman also joined the Hot Stove to discuss the PECOTA projections, advanced metrics and more:

…On RHP Ryan Webb

On Thursday, the Rays officially announced the signing of 30 year-old RHP reliever Ryan Webb to a one-year, $1-million Major League deal with incentives, tallying up to $500,000 more based on appearances.

In order to make room for Webb on the 40-man roster, Chase Whitley was added to the 60-day DL. Whiteley is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is expected to be activated in late July.

The question begs, what does Webb offer to the team?

First and foremost, Webb offers veteran experience. The righty has collected 357 games (376 innings pitched) in his 10 professional years, including the finishing of 98 games. He spent most of last season with Cleveland, collecting a 1-0 record and a 3.20 ERA (3.77 FIP) in 40 games. He pitched previously with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles, with a career 17-18 record and a 3.35 ERA (3.43 ERA) in 357 big-league games. He, however, has nary a save under his belt.

According to Brooks Baseball, in 2015 he relied primarily on his 93 mph sinker and 84 mph slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph change-up. He also boasts a 92 mph four-seam fastball which he rarely throws.

Ryan Webb pitch velocity chart. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)
Ryan Webb pitch velocity chart. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

The difference in velocity between his sinker and secondary pitches (slider and change-up) is something to take note of. That 10 mph differential should keep batters off balance.

Pitch usage by type. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)
Pitch usage by type. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

As Mat Germain (DRaysBay) pointed out, the kiss-off of his four-seam fastball is rather intriguing:

The most curious thing to note here is the complete dismissal of his four seam fastball. I’ll be interested to see if the Rays bring it back some, not much, and if it helps make him more effective overall. What I do like most, however, is the increased confidence in his change up, something that can really help him tie up hitters.

In all likelihood, Webb will end up in a middle relief spot. After all, over the last two seasons, both Cleveland and Baltimore used him sparingly in medium-to-high leverage situations. His projected 55 innings of work in 2016 speaks to that.

Ryan Webb's 2016 Steamer projection.
Ryan Webb’s 2016 Steamer projection.

Germain also touched on Webb’s performance in low, medium, and high leverage situations:

The good result would include his performance each season in low leverage situations, where he held opponents to a .212/.250/.323 line in 2014, but this changed in 2015 when he allowed a worrisome .268/.316/.423 line against and .317 wOBA. On the flip side, he only allowed 2 hits and 1 walk while facing 29 batters in medium and high leverage situations in 2015, which likely indicates he was used in ideal situations.

What most Rays fans likely want to know as well is how well he fared with runners on base and with runners in scoring position. Here are his performances over the last 2 seasons (courtesy Fangraphs):

  • Men on Base: 2014 – .299/.333/.395 over 21.2 IP with a .315 wOBA (only 1 HR allowed)
  • Men on Based: 2015 – .258/.309/.448 over 25 IP with a .318 wOBA (3 HR allowed)
  • Men in Scoring Position: 2014 – .196/.241/.216 over 13.2 IP with a .192 wOBA (no HR allowed)
  • Men is Scoring Position: 2015 – .273/.339/.509 over 14.2 IP with a .351 wOBA (3 HR allowed)

What is enticing about Webb is his ability to coax ground balls. He posted a 59.2% rate in 2015 to go along with a rather paltry 19.7% fly ball rate over his career. That bodes well for Tampa Bay on two fronts.

  1. Who better to have on the mound when playing in the home run friendly ball parks of the AL East? In an ideal world, Webb would be able to limit the damage.
  2. 81 games are played in the confines of the Trop, a historically pitcher friendly park. I’d have to say that speaks for itself.

In the end, the right handed reliever is an above-average pitcher ― as it relates to coaxing ground balls ― which should give the Rays plus infield a good chance to make plays and get out of jams unscathed.

 

 

Two dozen players report early to camp; Rays expected to sign Ryan Webb

New Rays OF/DH Corey Dickerson was among two dozen-plus players working out in Port Charlotte on Wednesday, and his batting practice was impressive. (Photo Credit: Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)
New Rays OF/DH Corey Dickerson was among two dozen-plus players working out in Port Charlotte on Wednesday, and his batting practice was impressive. (Photo Credit: Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

More than two dozen Rays players have already reported to camp in Port Charlotte, working out in advance of the first official full squad workout on February 26.

Among the players working out on Wednesday were OF/DH Corey Dickerson, 1B/OF/DH Steve Pearce, INF/OF Taylor Motter, catchers Curt Casali and Rene Rivera, and pitchers Danny Farquhar, Brad Boxberger, Steve Geltz, and Erasmo Ramirez.

Skipper Kevin Cash admitted to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) that he was pleased at the turnout of players ahead of the opening of camp:

This is what we want them to do, what it’s about. You love to have it where they’re here, with our eyes and we’re working with them. Not eveyone can do that, but we really appreciate the guys coming out.

In the midst of the excitement, news broke that the team is close to inking a deal with 30 year-old RHP reliever Ryan Webb. Webb spent most of last season with Cleveland, collecting a 1-0 record and a 3.20 ERA (3.77 FIP) in 40 games. He pitched previously with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles, with a career 17-18 record and a 3.35 ERA (3.43 ERA) in 357 big-league games, however, he’s never recorded a save.

The deal, expected to be a Major League contract, could be announced as soon as Thursday. There is thought to be holdup due to circumstances surrounding a corresponding roster move, as the Rays have to create space on the 40-man before adding Webb. But there is also another reason to wait until Thursday to officially announce the deal: Thursday is the first day players can be moved to 60-day disabled list, thus alleviating a potential roster jam. With Alex Cobb and Chase Whitley recovering from Tommy John surgery, the addition of both players to the 60-day DL would free up a pair of roster spots until late July when both players are expected to be activated.

The Rays, who enter Spring Training with a cache of outfielders, could put together a trade for another arm.

As it stands, only Kevin Kiermaier seems to be a lock at any specific position in the outfield, however, it’s hard to discount any one of the group’s (Brandon Guyer, Steven Souza Jr., Steve Pearce, Mikie Mattock, Desmond Jennings, and Corey Dickerson) abilities. Matt Silverman admitted that if the group goes through Spring Training healthy, they will have “too many.”

Who might the Rays trade?

Jennings, who is slated to make the most money at $3.3 million, would seem to be the most likely trade candidate. Yet his injury-plagued 2015 campaign could jeopardize the prospect of trading him, at least at the moment.

There is also Guyer or Mahtook. While both have shown they can contribute at the plate, and each is athletic, parting with one or the other would be a difficult call for Rays management.

Who might they trade for?

Friend of the blog Danny Russell (DRaysBay) listed a handful of trade candidates that could be targeted by the Rays. Of those listed, three names stick out ― Hunter Strickland, Keone Kela, and Jeremy Jeffress ― for their current team’s roster needs.

Russell reasoned what makes these three so appealing.

RHP Hunter Strickland, Giants

Hunter Strickland of the Giants already topped my wishlist, and he tops this search as well. His fastball is capable of reaching triple-digits and he very well could be the secret sauce for any bullpen he slots into. For that reason the Giants are unlikely to deal him.

Could the Rays blow out a deal for Strickland, perhaps sending the Giants a left fielder? This could be a relatively painless way to acquire what would be an incredible bullpen arm. It’s an expensive trade, but would be worth it.

Among Strickland’s notable stats were 20 holds last season, 77.7% contact rate in the zone, .190 BAA, 2.45 ERA and 2.90 FIP. Strickland is under team control through 2021. He works a nice curve as well.

RHP Keone Kela, Rangers

The Rangers are blessed with a deep bullpen right now, and Kela stands out. His fastball is alive, his curve is capable, and standing out from Strickland or players below, his change should grade as average, giving him a third pitch to mix well. The fastball has the 10″ rise the Rays prioritize as well.

Kela would be expensive, as he’s penciled in as the eight inning man for Texas, but the Rangers could be interested in an upgrade over Justin Ruggiano for the platoon with Josh Hamilton in left field.

A former 12th round pick, the west coast product is approaching his age-23 season, and is under team control through 2020.

RHP Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers

Like Strickland, I think Jeffress could be an interesting get. If the Brewers would be willing to trade him for James Loney, this trade could also remove a Rays surplus player. It would take sending prospects as well, but it’s worth the conversation.

In a full season of work, Jeffress had an impressive 81.7% LOB-rate in 2015, with a 2.65 ERA and 58.2% ground ball rate. He proved to be quite valuable for the Brewers, contributing 23 holds to their cause, and is in consideration for closer although likely to resume set up duties.

He’s also an odd duck. He had some issues with the long ball that should regress next season, but interestingly, Jeffress has a mere one pop up in his major league career, according to his Fangraphs profile page. A former first round pick from 2006, Jeffress is under team control through 2019.

Keep checking back for updated details on this story.

Noteworthiness

In case you missed it, X-Rays Spex has been active on the internet recently. Here’s what may have alluded you:

― On February 12, we began dissecting the 2016 ZiPS projections.

― On February 16, JJ assessed the Rays current bullpen situation.

― On February 17, PECOTA projected Tampa Bay to lead the AL East on the back of 91 wins.

― Earlier today, I put out the invitation for prospective writers.

 

X-Rays Spex is seeking prospective writers

Revenge-of-the-Nerds-1984-80s-films-25842688-1280-7202
A photo of the writers here at X-Rays Spex.

We’re looking for (semi) competent writers to contribute to X-Rays Spex! While X-Rays Spex is far from professional, the few of us who curate blog are passionate about the Tampa Bay Rays — the thing that drives us to continue doing what we do. In order for X-Rays Spex to regularly crank out a full spectrum of pieces on your favorite players and team, we need your help.

Can you:

― Analyze statistics, both traditional and advanced?
― Write about an upcoming series?
― Recap a previous game?
― Vent when something ridiculous happens — both on and off the field?
― Pen a creative narrative about the Rays or baseball in general (ala Grand Royal Magazine or Lucky Peach Magazine)?
― Or, maybe you have something unique to bring to the table.

It goes without saying, sarcasm and creativity is a welcome quality in our prospective writers.

If you can do any of the above, give us a shout! In short, we’re looking for writers with a focus on the Rays, though that creative focus is completely up to you!

Think you’ve got what it takes? Send a sample of your writing to: belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com

Rays projected by PECOTA to win the AL East

(Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports)
(Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports)

A little less than a week after we began to dissect the 2016 ZiPS projections for the Tampa Bay Rays, Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the upcoming season. The projection system likes Matt Silverman’s off-season moves, forecasting the Rays to lead the AL East with a mean average of 91 wins. And though the team still needs to add a few key pieces to the bullpen, the PECOTA projections offer a fairly optimistic look at the forthcoming season.

How will the Rays win the East? Here are a few highlights from Baseball Prospectus. A full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

Screen Shot 2016-02-16 at 9.28.57 PM

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2016. That is, they’re projected to be dominant thanks to pitching and defense. Their projected 619 runs allowed is second best in the American league ― just four runs behind Cleveland ― for fewest runs given up. The Nate Silver curated system projects Tampa Bay to score 713 runs — 69 more than they plated in 2015. The projected .253 BA/.318 OBP/.411 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .252 BA/.314 OBP/.406 line collected by the team last season.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .266 is 14 points higher than last season’s batting average. Of note, their projected slugging percentage is higher than the Yankees, who have a  tailored stadium to help them along.
  • PECOTA projects Hank Conger to get the majority of playing time behind the plate, followed by a platoon of Curt Casali and Rene Rivera. At first, James Loney looks to get the bulk of the playing time, although he is projected to post a -0.7 WARp. Incidentally, first base looks to be the weakest spot for the Rays as it relates to WARp. Nevertheless, Loney’s -0.7 WARp is five points better than what he posted last season.
  • Logan Forsythe appears slated for the majority of the playing time at second, although both Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin are also expected to get a significant amount of playing time on the right side of the diamond. At third, Evan Longoria looks to bounce back from a down season by posting a .285 TAv/4.0 WARp.
  • PECOTA likes Brad Miller at short, so much so that he is projected to post a 2.7 WARp — 1.4 points higher than former Ray Asdrubal Cabrera, who is now with the Mets.
  • Corey Dickerson and Desmond Jennings are projected to split time in left-field, with Brandon Guyer filling in as bench depth all over the outfield.
  • Despite a TAv that is seven points higher (.275 vs .268), Chris Pearce looks to receive less playing time at DH than Logan Morrison.
  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (183 IP, 2.9 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (174 IP, 1.9 WARp), Erasmo Ramirez (154 IP, 1.0 WARp), Matt Moore (145 IP, 0.6 WARp), and Drew Smyly (148 IP, 1.6 WARp). Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, and Chase Whitley may all factor into the rotation in some capacity as well, especially as Cobb and Whitley recover from Tommy John surgery.
  • There is one last category (in the chart above) that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to the Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.
  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 57.8 runs above average — the best in baseball. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays out-rank their closest competitor (Toronto) by 37.3 runs, and New York by 45.5. Of those 57.8 runs saved, Kevin Kiermaier is projected to save 27.4. Loney, however, is expected to give up 4.4 runs. Compare that with Pearce who is projected to save 1.3 runs at first.

In conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) put things into perspective:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays could end the season playing relevant ball in October, then again they could go about reconfiguring the roster once more. Still, a projected 91 win season (85 or 97, thanks a six game margin of error) has got to make every Rays fan salivate for the 2016 season.

 

As pitchers and catchers prepare to report, we assess the Rays current bullpen situation

Brad Boxberger pitching in relief last season. (Photo Credit: Philip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Brad Boxberger pitching in relief last season. (Photo Credit: Philip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Just two-weeks removed from the Corey Dickerson/Jake McGee trade, the Tampa Bay Rays have a huge hole to fill in their bullpen.

There’s no doubt that the biggest disappointment last year for the Rays was the ineptitude of their bullpen.  They yielded an MLB worst 27 blown saves and were atrocious in extra inning games (2-13 in 2015).  Some of these losses can be attributed to an unproductive offense (ranked 25th MLB: 13th A.L.); which the Rays hope to have addressed with the acquisition of Dickerson and Pearce. However, McGee’s .938 WHIP and 11.57 K/9 will be sorely missed. The obvious question now is Can the Rays replace their most reliable reliever? Let’s assess the pitchers whom the Rays will be relying on heavily to fill the void this year.

Brad Boxberger

Boxberger led the A.L. in saves last year with 41 and had an impressive first half of the season earning him a spot on the A.L. all star team, but during the second half of the season, Boxberger sputtered and finished with a dismal 4-10 record 6 blown saves and a 4.6 BB/9 ratio. Boxberger has proven he can handle the workload, but down the stretch was overworked by the thin Rays pen. Boxy should bounce back granted there’s someone who will emerge as the 7th or 8th inning guy, which brings us to our next player who the Rays hope will help fill McGee’s void.

Alex Colome

Colome proved to be a valuable asset in ’15 splitting time between the starting rotation and the pen. Colome posted an 8-5 record with an ERA of 3.94, but was most impressive when used out of the pen during the latter part of the season. Colome went 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 8 holds in 30 relief appearances.  The Rays are banking that Colome can produce similar numbers in ’16 and resume his duties as the set-up man to Boxberger.

Danny Farquar

It seems every year the Rays have an intriguing reclamation project in their bullpen going into spring training. They haven’t quite worked out in recent years. For example, Ernesto Frieri and Grant Balfour part II. But there’s a higher ceiling for Danny Farquar. His ’15 season was a debacle going 1-8 and posting a 5.12 ERA. If Hickey and staff can help him get command of his Cutter, we could see a return of the prowess he displayed in ’14. Farquar posted a 2.66 ERA and a 10.27 K/9.and 1.13 WHIP in 66 relief appearances. That type of production could provide a huge boost to a pen that was severely overused last season.

Enny Romero

The Rays are high on Romero and given the lack of LHP out of the pen, Romero will probably make the opening day’s roster. Romero’s ’15 season was lackluster, posting and ERA of 5.10 in 23 appearances last year. Mainly a starter, Romero’s career ERA in the minors was 3.70. The Rays are hoping Romero can make an adjustment this year and can be a reliable lefty in late game situations.

Xavier Cedeno

Cedeno is the only other lefty on the Rays roster from last year. Cedeno posted good numbers in ’15 with a 2.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and and impressive 9.0 K/9. Look for and increased role from Cedeno moving forward.

Other relievers

Long time prospect Matt Andriese went 1-3 out of the pen last year with an ERA of 4.75. Much like Romero, The Rays are looking for Andriese to elevate his game to the next level. Steve Geltz put up a solid 3.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 in 70 relief appearances. 

In conclusion

If the Rays fail to deal one of their starting pitchers before the season begins, they always have the option of moving Erasmo Ramirez or Drew Smyly to the pen once Alex Cobb returns from Tommy John surgery in May.

With Pitchers and Catchers reporting to Port Charlotte this week the Rays must make improving their bullpen a priority this spring. With the Addition of Aroldis Chapman (Yankees) and Craig Kimbrell (Red Sox) to the A.L. East, the Rays will definitely have their work cut out for them in later innings versus their main division foes. One thing the Rays pride themselves on is piecing together competent bullpen by utilizing their minor league rosters as well. Will it be enough this year to keep them in the hunt for the A.L. East? The Rays no doubt have another play in the works whether it’s via trade, minor league signing or the Spring Training scrap heap. Either way adding an impact arm to the bullpen before opening day is imperative.