Analyzing the Tampa Bay Rays offense after 29 games

Logan Forsythe #11 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a two run single to take a 4-2 lead over the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 07, 2016 in Anaheim, California. (Photo Credit: Harry How/Getty Images)
Logan Forsythe #11 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a two run single to take a 4-2 lead over the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 07, 2016 in Anaheim, California. (Photo Credit: Harry How/Getty Images)

After 29 games, the Tampa Bay Rays have met certain expectations, thanks in large part to the pitching staff, while lagging at others due to the offense. Inspired by the Process Report, we sought out to answer a simple question: How are the Rays doing so far in this relatively young season? Today I’ll break down two offensive statistics ― weighted on base average (wOBA) and weighted runs above average (wRAA) ― in an attempt to suss out the answer to that query.

First off, let me define the key statistics ― wOBA and wRAA (both via FanGraphs) ― to give you a better understanding of what you will be looking at.

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Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

wRAA

Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) measures the number of offensive runs a player contributes to their team compared to the average player. How much offensive value did Evan Longoria contribute to his team in 2009? With wRAA, we can answer that question: 28.3 runs above average. A wRAA of zero is league-average, so a positive wRAA value denotes above-average performance and a negative wRAA denotes below-average performance. This is also a counting statistic (like RBI), so players accrue more (or fewer) runs as they play.

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The Good ― Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce and Steven Souza Jr.

Forsythe has been predictably good out of the leadoff spot, reaching base often and driving in crucial runs as opportunities arise. He has posted elite numbers against lefties and great numbers against righties. Likewise, Brandon Guyer has been very good against lefties and righties, making the most of his time by collecting a 4.8 wRAA in just 58 plate appearances as of Monday night.

Both Pearce and Souza have been productive thus far (2.2 and 4.6 wRAA, respectively), and that output should increase with continued playing time. Dare I say Souza’s production might almost be enough to overlook his 36.6% strikeout rate and his running gaffes on the base paths?

The Bad ― Evan Longoria, Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, Logan Morrison and Hank Conger

Longoria has fared well against southpaws, although the struggle against righties is real. Part of the problem, as Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) noted, is his willingness to swing at anything remotely close to the zone. His defensive work shouldn’t go overlooked, and the hope remains that he can make the proper adjustments to increase his production against right-handers.

As it relates to Jennings, it truly is a shame that you can’t have a roving designated hitter, after all his defense has been solid even when his time in the batter’s box has left a lot to be desired. It is no wonder that Kevin Cash has relied upon Brandon Guyer more often of late regardless of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound.

Concerning Morrison and Conger, I’ll let the numbers above do all the talking.

The Argyle ― Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson and Curt Casali

Kiermaier has done well against righties so far, and better than one could have imagined against lefties. The Outlaw has shown surprising pop, already collecting a third of his total home run output of 2015 in just 94 plate appearances this season.

What a difference a few weeks has made for Miller. The Rays shortstop collected a -2.7 wRAA through most of April before snapping out of his funk toward the end of the month, and putting up a .440 wOBA/1.9 wRAA since. He’s also lowered his K% from 26.8% in April to 26.1% in May…a modest adjustment, but an adjustment nonetheless.

Dickerson has fared well against righties, however, his production has been nonexistent against lefties. The DH/OF has collected just one hit, one walk and six strikeouts against LHP, compared to 15 hits (including six homers), six runs, and 12 RBI against RHP. Dickerson was brought in as a platoon option for the DH spot in the lineup. With 20 accrued plate appearances against LHP, perhaps it’s time to put someone else in the lineup against left-handed hurlers.

After a miserable start to the season, Casali is looking better. Of his 13 hits, three are doubles and four are homers. Casali increased from a .191 wOBA/-5.11 wRAA/.104 ISO in April to a .589 wOBA/3.9 wRAA/.625 ISO in May. In an ideal world he will lower his 42% strikeout ratio* and start putting together more consistent plate appearances.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next 29 games. Who will get hot and who will cool down? On thing is certain, if the Rays are going to be the team they were projected to become, the unproductive many will need to step up to the literal and figurative plate.

Be on the lookout for our breakdown of pitching and defense in the next few days.

*Casali’s already lowered his K% by 5% in the last week

 

 

Rays 5/9/16 starting lineup, etc

(Photo Credit: Unknown)
(Photo Credit: Unknown)

Rays 5/9/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson DH
Souza Jr. RF
Morrison 1B
Guyer LF
Kiermaier CF
Conger C
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness

― Kevin Cash has Logan Morrison and Brandon Guyer in the lineup tonight.

― You can read about tonight’s pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners ― a series preview

The Tampa Bay Rays enter Seattle having swept the Los Angeles Angels in three games. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
The Tampa Bay Rays enter Seattle having swept the Los Angeles Angels in three games. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off their fourth straight win to move above .500 for the first time this season ― both feats they haven’t accomplished since August. Next stop Seattle, where the Rays will continue their six-game west cost jaunt against the Mariners.

To remain on the winning side of the ledger, the Rays will have to beat a tough Seattle team. Tampa Bay has experienced some success at Safeco Field, though none has come against Mariners’ ace, Felix Hernandez, who will take the mound Monday night.

In fact, Seattle (18-13) hasn’t lost any of King Felix’s 10 home starts against the Rays. Hernandez is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in those outings, and he is 7-2 with a 1.90 ERA in 15 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Three of King Felix’s last seven starts against them have resulted in complete game performances, including his 12-strikeout perfecto on August 15, 2012.

I can’t think of too many that are better, Rays manager Kevin Cash told MLB’s official website. You talk about guys evolving. … Felix, you know, he’s pitching 90, 91 mph right now. But the movement he creates on pitches and how he locates is second to none.

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Then again, Tampa Bay is on the upswing, boasting a season-high four-game win streak, including a 3-1 triumph at the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday that pushed the Rays over .500 (15-14) for the first time since August of 2015.

Off to a quiet start through much of April, the bat of former Mariner, Brad Miller, appears to be waking up after going 6-14 with two homers in the sweep of the Angels. Steven Souza Jr. is 6-13 with two homers and three RBI during a four-game hit streak.

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And while not wholly sustainable over the course of an entire  season, the Rays 39 combined home runs finds them tied for eighth (with Seattle) for the most homers in baseball.

Tampa Bay has slugged nine home runs over their past four games, and 21 in their past 12. With 56 of their 102 runs scored by the long-ball (54.9%), the Rays are now ranked second highest in the majors (behind the Mets). A powerful .453 SLG and .214 ISO over the last 14 days is another positive affect of the team’s slugging ways.

That’s not to discount the Mariners. They finally seem to have put it all together, led by the red-hot Robinson Cano, who leads the American League with 12 homers ― four in the last eight games as he has gone 18-35 with nine RBI. Cano has made a habit out of beating up on the Rays, collecting a .314 average, 24 home runs and 101 RBI in 166 career contests. The second baseman is on an eight hitting streak while teammate Kyle Seager is 16-37 with three homers during a nine-game hitting streak for Seattle.

Kevin Cash will throw Matt Moore (1-3, 4.95 ERA), Drew Smyly (1-3, 2.72 ERA), and Chris Archer (2-4, 4.23 ERA) over the next few days.

Moore put together his worst outing of the season Tuesday against the Dodgers, allowing seven runs on eight hits in 4-1/3 innings. He is 0-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two career starts at Safeco Field. Smyly picked up another outstanding start on Wednesday against the Dodgers, still he came away with a no-decision. He’s been Tampa Bay’s best starter thus far, although he’s had little to show for his efforts. Archer notched his third straight quality start on Friday night, holding the Angels scoreless through six frames. After a slow start to the 2016 season, he is now 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA over his last three outings.

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Felix Hernandez (2-2, 2.21 ERA) is coming off a four-inning start in Oakland when he allowed nine hits and eight runs (four earned). King Felix threw 81 pitches while working into the fifth inning, and generated just three swinging strikes in that game. After fanning 16 batters in his first two starts to begin the season, Hernandez has a 1.67 K/BB over the last 14 days. He’s 7-2 with a 1.90 ERA in 15 career starts against Tampa Bay, including his perfect game in 2012. Key matchups: Brandon Guyer (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-7, 3B, BB)

Wade Miley (2-2, 4.74 ERA) has allowed just three runs on 13 hits over his last 21-1/3 innings after giving up 17 runs and 29 hits in his first 16-2/3. He’s 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays. The lefty has made strides to recover from the horrors of his first four starts. Unfortunately for him, he’s shown no sign of improving upon the pitching that led to an ERA in the mid-fours in each of the last two seasons. In 2016 Miley has relied upon a 91 mph four seam Fastball, an 83 mph circle change that he uses to coax grounders, and a 91 mph sinker. He’s also mixed in an 85 mph slider and a 78 mph worm-killer curveball. He’s 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (6-21, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-8, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-19, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Steve Pearce (3-9, 3 RBI)

Taijuan Walker (2-2, 1.97 ERA) was pulled just two innings into his last start in Houston due to a sore neck after giving up two homers and three runs. He’s collected 29 strikeouts and three walks over his seven starts. This season Walker has relied heavily upon a 95 mph four seam fastball with a lot of backspin, while also mixing in an 89 mph worm-burner of a splitter, a 76 mph 12-to-6 curveball, a 90 mph cutter and a 93 mph sinker with a little run and a lot of depth. This will be his first start vs. the Rays.

Noteworthiness

― Alex Colome, a closer for the first time this season, is 9/9 in save opportunities with a 0.92 WHIP.

― Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted the connections between the two teams. The Mariners have a handful of former Rays, including RHP Nathan Karns, who was traded in November for SS Brad Miller and 1B Logan Morrison; LHP Mike Montgomery (traded for RHP Erasmo Ramirez); and free agent signees RHPs Joel Peralta and Joaquin Benoit (who is on the DL). Bench coach Tim Bogar was a Rays coach in 2008.

― The Mariners won four of the seven meetings last season, but went 1-3 in four games at Seattle.

― No current Ray has homered off King Felix, and Evan Longoria has the only RBI while going 6-27 in the matchup. Hernandez is tied with Jamie Moyer for the franchise lead with 145 career wins.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays win third consecutive game, 4-2

Alex Colome improved to 8-for-8 in save chances Saturday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
Alex Colome improved to 8-for-8 in save chances Saturday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
Logan Forsythe delivered a two-run bases-loaded single in the top of the ninth allowing the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the Los Angeles Angels for the second consecutive day, 4-2. At 14-14 on the season, the Rays enter the day at .500 once more and on a three-game win streak.

Tampa Bay mounted an early scoring threat in third inning against the soft tossing Jered Weaver when Hank Conger and Brad Miller collected a pair of singles (both to right) with one out. Yet a fly-ball out at the warning track by Evan Longoria and an ugly swinging strikeout by Corey Dickerson called that early threat to a close.

The Rays put together another scoring opportunity in the fifth, and it all started with Kevin Kiermaier who led off the inning with a single to center. Kiermaier easily swiped second with Conger in the batter’s box, putting himself into scoring position. Yet Conger unsuccessfully tried to play small ball, with his bunt attempt resulting in a comebacker for the first out of the frame. Kiermaier also swiped third with one out and Forsythe at the plate. Unfortunately neither Forsythe nor Miller were successful in  their attempts to drive in a run.

The Angels ultimately drew first blood in the bottom of the inning.

CJ Cron singled to center off Jake Odorizzi to spark the rally. Johnny Giovatella was next, bouncing over the mound toward second, but Forsythe’s off-balance throw on hop to first barely pulled Morrison off the bag. Rays skipper Kevin Cash asked for the play to be reviewed yet the call stood.

With runners on first and second and no outs, Geovany Soto was able to do what his catching counterpart couldn’t: bunt the runners up 90 feet. To be fair, it appeared that Odorizzi had a play at third to get the lead runner. Nevertheless, with the infield in Andrelton Simmons ripped a first pitch single to left, scoring both runners. Unfortunately for the Angels, that was all they could score as the Rays were able to keep them in check over the next four innings.

Still the Rays trailed by two going into the sixth against a pitcher who they clearly couldn’t time up. Dickerson ― one of the batters who consistently swung through Weaver’s invisiballs ― actually reached base, albeit on an error, when he hit a grounder to the right side with one out. Cron’s throw pulled Weaver, who covered first, off the bag.

Souza followed with a surprisingly good at-bat ― not chasing any of the junk Weaver was throwing and working a 3-0 count. He also didn’t chase the next two pitches, both of which were called strikes. Two pitches later, Souza ripped a game tying homer over the fence in left.

Tie score, 2-2.

For Souza, it was his team leading seventh homer of the season, and it meant that 53.5% of the team’s runs (53 of 99) have come via the long ball.

As it was discussed elsewhere, things got a little dicey for Jake in the bottom of the frame. Mike Trout lined a one-out single to center, which set up the second cat-and-mouse game of the night between Trout — who clearly wanted to run — and Odorizzi. But where Jake did a nice job of keeping Trout close in first inning, this time an errant pickoff throw hit Trout, allowing him to advance to second on the deflection. Odorizzi recovered nicely, challenging and striking out Pujols, then elevating fastballs to Calhoun and inducing another strikeout, leaving Trout stranded at second.

That spelled the end of Odorizzi’s night after he posted six strong innings of 2 R/5 H/1 BB ball, collecting four strikeouts along the way.

Everyday Erasmo Ramirez came on to work the next two frames, working around a leadoff single and stranding the go-ahead runner at third in the seventh, and then collecting a perfect eighth against Daniel Nava, Trout and Albert Pujols.

After going 1-9 wRISP over the course of the game, Forsythe finally delivered the only hit the Rays had with runners in scoring position. The final uprising of the game started with Souza, who singled to right, against the shift, off closer Joe Smith to start the ninth. Another day, another running gaffe by Souza…the Angels pitched out on the outfielder who got caught in a rundown.  Luckily for Tampa Bay, Simmons’ throw hit Souza and the outfielder safely advanced to second. Morrison successfully reached base again, this time on a walk, but Jennings unsuccessfully tried to lay down a sac-bunt which was hit too hard and toward first. Cron quickly fielded the ball and fired over to third to force Souza. And while Kiermaier grounded into a 6-4 fielder’s choice for the second out, the pinch hitting Curt Casali walked to load the bases for Forsythe, who lined a 1-1 pitch to center, scoring two.

That allowed Erasmo Ramirez to earn his sixth win of the season, a team-leading total. He also has tied Chris Sale for the league lead in wins.

In the ninth, Alex Colome (like Ramirez) worked for a second straight day and allowed a one-out single to Cron. But Colome got Johnny Giovatella to hit into a game-ending 6-4-3 double play, allowing the righty to improve to 8-for-8 in save chances.

The New What Next

RHP Matt Andriese has been recalled from Triple-A Durham to make his season debut with Tampa Bay. This comes five days after he fanned 14 batters at Indianapolis. Andriese made eight starts last season for the Rays, going 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA. RHP Nick Tropeano (1-1) is coming off a 5-4 loss last Tuesday in which he gave up five runs, five hits, five walks and three home runs over five innings. He has gone no more than 5-2/3 innings in any of his five starts, but has thrown at least 89 pitches in each of them. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 5/8/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson LF
Souza RF
Morrison DH
Pearce 1B
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Andriese RHO

Noteworthiness

— In order to make room for Matt Andriese on the 25-man roster, the Rays designated Jhan Marinez for assignment.

—  Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) took a look at the Rays long history of coming up short at catcher, and, yes, passing on Posey is part of it.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays hold onto early lead, beat Halos 5-2

41,000+ people showed up for selfie stick night at Angels Stadium on Friday. FML. (Photo Credit: Chelsea Haller)
41,253 people showed up for selfie stick night at Angels Stadium on Friday. FML. (Photo Credit: Chelsea Haller)
For a third consecutive outing, Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer put together a quality start, blanking the Angels over six innings en route to a 5-2 victory over Los Angeles late Friday night.

Tampa Bay scored four early runs in the first, and another in the third, yet ― despite plenty of opportunities ― no more. The early rally came against Cory Rasmus, who made a spot start after Angels ace Garrett Richards was diagnosed with a UCL tear in his right elbow.

Logan Forsythe ripped a double to center-field, over the head of Mike Trout, on the first pitch of the game. Forsythe promptly became a pest on the base paths, taking big leads and generally getting into Rasmus’ head. The activity paid dividends, resulting in a balk that moved Logan to third. That mattered, as Evan Longoria hit a sacrifice-fly to the warning track in left to score Forsythe for the game’s first run.

Tampa Bay piled it on from there. Steve Pearce singled down the third base line, Steven Souza Jr. accepted a five pitch walk, and Corey Dickerson pulled an 0-2, inside pitch into the right-field stands for his sixth homer of the season.

Rays up, 4-0.

In the third inning, Brad Miller lined a solo shot into the hedges in center field, extending the lead to 5-0 over Rasmus and the Angels.

Against Mike Trout and the Angels, there’s a natural desire to put more runs on the board. And while the Rays attempted to do just that, they went 2-for-10 wRISP the rest of the way. They mounted an incredible scoring threat following Miller’s homer, yet with the bases loaded and two outs, Kevin Kiermaier grounded out to second.

Another opportunity presented itself in the fourth inning after Curt Casali, Forsythe and Miller hit back-to-back-to-back singles, loading the bases with no outs. But Javy Guerra (in relief of Jose Alvarez) struck out Longoria, coaxed a shallow popper out of Pearce and fanned Souza. Longoria’s strikeout looked egregiously horrible, swinging at three pitches that were well out of the zone without forcing a single strike out of Guerra.

Archer worked six scoreless innings in the meantime, with the ace walking two and striking out six, while scattering five hits. That’s not to say he was the Archer of last season, not by any stretch of the imagination. His control lapsed in spots, and he also left a handful of sliders up in the zone which he somehow wasn’t punished for.

Still Archer was at his best in key spots, collecting three strikeouts and holding Los Angeles to 0-5 wRISP thanks to some tight sliders ― that forced some chases from the Angels batters ― and some decent changeups. Archer now has given up just two runs in his last three starts, spanning 19-2/3 innings.

Credit where it’s due, the Angels bullpen held the Rays scoreless from the third inning on, allowing them to make things interesting late.

Steve Geltz started the seventh and quickly coaxed a fly-ball for the first out of the inning. Yet Geltz walked the .150 hitting Roberto Perez after getting ahead 0-2. Cliff Pennington followed with a single to right, and after former Ray Yunel Escobar went down swinging, Daniel Nava was hit by a pitch, consequently loading the bases. Two good low fastballs allowed Geltz to get ahead of Trout, however, the righty nibbled at the zone and walked the outfielder to force home a run. Kevin Cash had seen enough and called upon Erasmo Ramirez, who got Albert Pujols to line to Souza at the wall in right on just one pitch, ending the threat. Ramirez has now stranded 13 of 14 inherited runners.

Ramirez stayed on to pitch the eighth inning, and gave up a run on a pair of hits: a double to Kole Calhoun that Souza couldn’t hang onto, and a single up the middle Andrelton Simmons. Everyday Erasmo got the next two batters to keep Tampa Bay ahead by three after eight.

Alex Colome closed out the game in dominating fashion, earning his seventh save of the season. His appearance was punctuated by a five pitch strikeout of Trout on a filthy, sweeping slider.

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The New What Next

Jake Odorizzi will get the ball for the seventh time this season, opposite of Jered Weaver. Odorizzi has five no-decisions in six starts, and gave up just one run in seven innings in his last start against Toronto. The right-hander is 0-2 in both of his starts against Los Angeles, though he didn’t face them last season. Weaver (3-1, 5.40 ERA) has seen his velocity plummet to all-time lows, averaging just 81.9 mph on his fastball. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 4/7/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson DH
Souza RF
Morrison 1B
Jennings LF
Kiermaier CF
Conger C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Tampa Bay is doing much of its damage with the home run, and with two out rallies, writes Neil Solondz (Rays Radio). Last night, the Rays scored four of five runs via the homer.  Tampa Bay has scored 51 of 95 runs (53.7%) on homers, and have hit 36 in the first 27 games.  The Rays also scored three more two-out runs, and a total 54 two-out runs this season (56.8%).

— Two excellent observations of last night’s game by Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay):

  1. In the fifth inning, Brandon Guyer, the master of getting hit by pitches, was hit by a pitch. This one was totally legit, though. It was wild, up and in. Guyer shielded his face with his arm as he tried to hit the deck, and the pitch got him squarely in the triceps. Later on, Guyer was hit by another pitch. The second HBP was a Guyer special, where he made no attempt to get his arm out of the way.
  2. In the top of the seventh, Souza hit a double. Good. Then, a pitch went into the dirt. It bounced a few feet away from the catcher, Perez, who seemed to not be able to find it. He may or may not have been baiting Souza, and when Souza, after waiting a beat, took another couple steps off the bag, Perez found the ball in a hurry and caught Souza in no man’s land. Souza eventually decided to go for third. The throw was there, but Souza’s slide beat the tag. That is, until he slid off the other side of the base. The Rays challenged, but the out call was upheld. As Souza trotted back to the dugout, Cash gave him an extremely cold look. Not pleased.

— Brad Miller collected four total hits last night. Since moving to the two-hole on April 26, Miller has collected three runs and two RBI on nine hits, while striking out just once.

— With their five runs last night, Tampa Bay has now scored at least four runs in four of the last five games.