― Jason Hanselman (The Process Report) did a wonderful job in detailing the Rays, who are drunk on swinging the bat at seemingly everything. While we put together our April status report, give this a read.
― Piggy backing on that, we analyzed the K% of the Rays’ regulars.
― Don’t forget to read our Rays/Dodgers series preview. Make it a two’fer if you already have.
The Los Angeles Dodgers head east to take on the Tampa Bay Rays in an unusual two game, interleague series at Tropicana Field. They play Tuesday and Wednesday before the Rays head west to take on the Angels.
The Rays are coming off a disappointing series loss against the Toronto Blue Jays, capped by a 5-1 loss in the finale on Sunday. As Jason Hanselman (The Process Report) points out, Rays pitching has been pretty good, while the offense…not so much.
Rays starters allowed nine earned runs and held opposing hitters to a .155 average on the week (4/25 – 5/1), yet the team was only able to split its six games because the offense did not produce runs. The team batting average, at .221, is the lowest in baseball, and the Rays went 4-for-38 with runners in scoring position this past week.
That includes 3-for-21 wRISP against Toronto.
Still, Tampa Bay has been a great interleague team, going 21-8 dating back to 2015. Meanwhile Los Angeles has gone 2-6 over its last eight games. The Dodgers aren’t playing the best baseball right now and had to be rescued by Clayton Kershaw on Sunday to halt a six-game losing skid.
The series also marks the return of four pivotal names from Rays past: former ace Scott Kazmir, OF Carl Crawford, LHP JP Howell and baseball operations president Andrew Friedman. Kazmir was acquired in a 2004 trade and started the first World Series game for Tampa Bay in 2008. Crawford was a crucial player in the outfield from 2002-10 before he sought greener pastures with the Red Sox. Howell played for the Rays from 2006-12, and this marks his first trip back to Tropicana Field in four years. Friedman Spent 11 years with the team and is credited as being the architect of the Rays transformation as executive VP.
Rays skipper Kevin Cash will throw Matt Moore (1-2, 3.66 ERA) and Drew Smyly (1-3, 2.60 ERA) over the next couple of days.
Moore has allowed four homers this season, accounting for nine of the 13 runs he’s allowed. Since late last season, the lefty has gone at least six innings in eight of his past nine starts, including four consecutive outings. Somehow lefties are hitting .318 against Moore, while righties are batting a paltry .194.
Smyly undoubtedly has been the Rays’ best starter this season, even if he has little to show for his efforts. He ranks among the AL leaders in strikeouts, which he attributes to getting ahead of opposing batters. Due to his deceptive over the top delivery, Smyly’s pitches get on hitters quicker and appear to move faster than the radar gun might indicate.
Scott Kazmir (1-2, 5.76 ERA) got his first quality start since his season debut on Wednesday, allowing two earned runs in six innings while fanning six. This will be his third start at the Trop since his August 2009 trade. Overall, Kazmir is 1-4, 5.13 in five starts against Tampa Bay. In 2016, he has relied primarily on his 91 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 76 mph changeup, 91 mph sinker, 87 mph cutter and 80 mph slider. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-6, 3B, HR, 3 RBI), Hank Conger (1-4, BB), Brandon Guyer (3-6), Evan Longoria (4-14, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steve Pearce (2-3, 2B)
After making mechanical adjustments, Alex Wood (1-2, 4.82 ERA) allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out nine over seven innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Friday. Wood, much like the Rays hurlers, only received a single run of offensive support. However, he’s been inconsistent so far, allowing at least five runs in three of his outings, but only one run in both of his other two starts. Relying primarily on his 91 mph sinker and 83 mph knuckle-curveball, while also mixing in an 85 mph circle change, has accrued a less than stellar 1.54 WHIP. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3, 2B), Logan Morrison (1-4, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2, HR, RBI)
― The Dodgers are: 9-19 in their last 28 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record, 2-6 in their last eight interleave games, and 0-4 in Kazmir’s last four starts. (Source: Winners and Whiners)
― The Rays are: 7-0 in their last seven Tuesday games, 21-8 in their last 29 interleague games, and 25-10 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. (Source: Winners and Whiners)
Here we are, about a month into the season, and most of the everyday players in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup have racked up anywhere between 51 and 99 plate appearances. While it is easy to look at a particular player’s batting average and conclude that he is performing at a certain level, be that good or bad, only one statistic offers a valid measurement at this point in the season — strikeout percentage (K%).
Allow me to expand on the subject.
Strikeout percentage is a statistic based on total plate appearances. It can be used to make inferences about a player based on a certain sample size — in this case 60 plate appearances, when strikeout percentage tends to stabilize. To put things in perspective, beyond the watermark of 60 plate appearances, it is unlikely that a player’s strikeout percentage is based solely on random variation.
It is, typically, the first statistic to be analyzed because of the incredibly small sample size needed to accrue information. Walk percentage follows, stabilizing at 120 plate appearances, while home run rate stabilizes at 170 plate appearances — so on and so forth. You can read an excellent article on statistics and sample size at Baseball Prospectus.
Note: The chart above is meant to be used as an estimate. League-average strikeout rates vary on a year-by-year basis.
The question begs, how are the everyday players on the Rays’ roster looking so far? Let’s take a look.
At this time last season, the slap hitting Kevin Kiermaier had posted a 17% strikeout percentage, which certainly isn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination. This year, however, he’s lowered that rate by almost two or three points, depending on whether you’re looking at his career K% and/or the 2016 projection. He’s also improved in three other key areas: OBP (.329, up from .298), wOBA (.340, up from .309) and BB% (9.2, up from 4.5). In short, Kiermaier is striking out less and reaching base more often. At a time when the team mantra espouses the virtues of being aggressive at the plate, he is laying off pitches outside of the zone. There likely will be plus/minus fluctuations over the span of the next 138 games, but barring any major change in his approach, Kiermaier looks to be a player who is putting together better at-bats and striking out less…at least in the present tense.
Both Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe’s strikeout percentages are up from last season — Longoria 20.2% (up from 19.7%) and Forsythe 21.3% (up from 18.0%). I’d argue though, that a slightly inflated K% is a byproduct of the team’s more aggressive approach at the plate. 20 or 21 strikeouts for every 100 plate appearances are negligible changes at best.
Logan has dramatically improved his OBP by 59 points — up from .359 in 2015 to .418 thus far. To that end, at least he’s reaching base at a greater clip, and I’d expect his K% level out to his career norm by the end of the season.
Longoria told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) that he is pleased with his power numbers to date, although he still seeks to boost his overall production. Unfortunately Longoria is swinging through a good number of pitches on the upper, lower and inside fringes of the zone, as well as pitches over the inner third of the plate. If he can lay off pitches down and over the heart of the plate, while making contact with those within the zone, he can start to put together those crucial more productive at-bats.
After missing most of last season, yet predictably doing well during Spring Training, Desmond Jennings finds himself offensively strapped and striking out just over 25% of the time. When he does make contact, it’s more often soft (28.8%) or medium (48.1%).
Brad Miller started the year by striking at an ugly clip (19 times in 58 plate appearances). However, since moving up to the two hole back on April 26, Miller has struck out just once. Sure, his 26.8% strikeout percentage is a worrisome figure. However, consider that he struck out 33% of the time up to April 25th, and just 6% of the time since.
Despite striking out 35.4% of the time, Steven Souza Jr. has been productive at the plate, collecting five homers and 11 RBI. He’s also lowered his strikeout percentage from this point last season. Still, he was projected for a 31.5% strikeout percentage this season by ZiPS. It certainly doesn’t help that he’s struck out seven times in his last 16 plate appearances, while collecting just two hits in that span.
The crowning acquisition of the past offseason, Logan Morrison was expected to offset his sub-Gold Glove caliber defense with some thump at the plate. However, after stepping to the plate 68 times in 2016, Morrison has struck out a gaudy 39.1% of the time. Ouch! There may be a ray of hope for the maligned first baseman, he’s struck out more that 18% of the time just once in his MLB career — 18.9% in 2011 with the Marlins. Can he make the adjustment and lower his strikeout percentage to something that resembles his career or projected numbers? Sure…although he’ll have to do something about the holes in his swing within the strike zone.
Curt Casali has struck out a staggering 47.1% of the time. Thankfully when he makes contact it’s either medium (36%) or hard (40%). I read a funny tweet where Casali was referred to as Curt “Shoppach,” and he really hasn’t done much to shed the moniker. The hope is that he can lower that percentage with more consistent play, even if his numbers don’t bear that out. A caveat: he’s only accrued 51 plate appearances though I don’t really foresee a tremendous change in nine more.
The team, as a whole, has posted a 26% strikeout percentage (five points higher than the MLB average). That number is largely due to their aggressive 48.2% swing percentage. A free swinging team is one that hits a lot of homers, yet also strikes out at an uncomfortable pace. Pick your poison.
To be clear, strikeout percentage (as with any other statistic) is fluid and can change for better or worse. It can decrease when a batter makes the proper adjustments at the plate. Take former Ray Wil Myers for example. Myers lowered his below average 24.9 K% in 2014 to an average/above average 19.4% at this point last season with the San Diego Padres.
Be that as it may, in order for Jennings, Miller, Souza, Morrison and Casali to blossom into the players Silverman envisioned, those adjustments will need to be made.
— On Thursday JJ and I will continue our team analysis with a breakdown the Rays first month of play.
After 2 horrid at bats vs. J.A. Happ, Evan Longoria homered over the wall in right-center to tie things up at 2-2 in the bottom of the 6th. Longoria was 3 for his last 27, prior to hitting his 4th home run of the season.
Kevin Pillar homered off Rays reliever Enny Romero in the top of the 7th, giving the Blue Jays a 3-2 lead. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons elected to keep J.A. Happ in the game for the seventh, due to the recent ineptitude of their bullpen. Logan Forsythe would make him pay for that mistake. Forsythe crushed Happ’s 1-1 2 out offering over the centerfield wall to tie the game. Forsythe has been on a torrid rampage over the past two weeks, batting a scorching .405( 17 for 42), hitting 7 doubles, scoring 9 runs and swiping 3 bags in that span. Forsythe has been an on base machine of late and seems to be settling nicely into the leadoff spot.
Pinch hitter Brad Miller hustled out and infield single, barely beating first baseman Justin Smoak on a sharply hit grounder to first. Kevin Kiermaier followed with a double to the right field gap, advancing Miller to third. Curt Casali, who’d been struggling offensively, (.133 over his last 15 games) lined Bret Cecil’s 3-1 offering over Troy Tulowitzki head into left field scoring Miller for the walk off victory.
“Curt’s been grinding. He’s been doing such a good job with our pitchers. And you want that reward for him to go up there and contribute offensively. It was good that he did. We wanted that win right there, and good for Curt”
-Rays Manager Kevin Cash
The walk-off win ended the Rays 2 game skid and tied the season series versus the Toronto Blue Jays 3-3. The “Rubber Match” is tomorrow afternoon at the Trop. First pitch is at 1:10.
Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for Tampa Bay in the series finale, opposite of Marcus Stroman. Odorizzi (0-1, 3.58 ERA) Odorizzi has shown to be adept at preventing the big inning and posses the ability to battle when he doesn’t have his best stuff, which he did Tuesday while holding the Orioles to one run in five innings. Now, if he can get ahead of batters and again become the efficient pitcher he was in 2015. Stroman (3-0, 4.37 ERA) has thrown at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts (dating back to 2015). He is 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay, and this is the second time this year he will be matched up against them. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Forsythe 2B
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson DH
Souza RF
Morrison 1B
Guyer LF
Kiermaier CF
Conger C
Odorizzi RHP
― Rays SS Tim Beckham made a couple of good defensive plays at SS, including a diving grab robbing Jose Bautista of what could have been an RBI single. Beckham also hit his first double of the season in the fifth inning.
―Steven Souza Jr. started at DH on Saturday and hit his 3rd double of the year following Longo’s homer in the sixth. Souza also struck out 3 times.
―Kevin Kiermaier committed his first error of the season in the first inning of Saturdays game. KK’s only committed 7 errors his whole career.
― Brandon Guyer will make his third consecutive start today, this time in LF and in lieu of the slumping Desmond Jennings.
The night started on an awkward note when actor extraordinaire, Gary Busey, threw out the ceremonial first pitch.
[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqzrSNQ3ZDE”]
.@THEGaryBusey was everywhere at the @RaysBaseball game today. https://t.co/gbYCB7cGCi pic.twitter.com/DfZ0E0efLZ
— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 30, 2016
Smyly got the start and allowed just one hit over the first five innings. That hit, however, was a 2-1, two-out homer to Michael Saunders ― the second homer the outfielder has hit off Smyly in as many starts, and the first of two Friday night. Smyly didn’t elevate his fastball enough and Saunders didn’t miss, hitting the homer off the top of the centerfield wall and giving Toronto an early one run advantage.
The lefty surrendered one more hit, a mammoth two-out homer (that hit off the C ring) in the sixth by Josh Donaldson. It was his eighth of the year, and second of the season against Smyly. Donaldson is now 7-14 against Smyly lifetime with three homers.
Still the lefty was effective over his six inning start, allowing just two runs on two hits while fanning eight and walking one — thus keeping his team in the ballgame. To be fair, Smyly did as well as he could even though he was squeezed by home-plate umpire Mark Ripperger, who at times seemed to have a rather minuscule strike-zone.
And because of what appeared to be a rather egregious strike-zone, Rays Manager Kevin Cash was thrown out in the top of the fifth inning. The skipper came out of the dugout to protect Smyly, who the umpire had exchanged words with after the lefty seemed unhappy with several ball/strike calls.
I just didn’t agree with the strike zone too much, Cash said. That’s going to happen. Those guys out there are busting it trying to get it right. We want it right. That’s going to happen. But sometimes we’re not always going to agree.
Smyly appreciated his manager coming out on his behalf.
Yeah, I mean, it was a tight zone tonight. I thought there was definitely quite a few pitches that were inside the strike zone. He didn’t give it to me. Like I said, that’s baseball. There really isn’t anything you can do about it. I just have to keep making the next pitch.
Since being acquired at the 2014 trade deadline, Smyly has made 24 starts. He has allowed two runs or fewer 17 times, one run or fewer 12 times and four hits or fewer 16 times. He also tied the Rays April record for strikeouts with 41, a mark also held by former ace David Price.
Suffice it to say, at 1-9 with runners in scoring position, Tampa Bay had chances against Sanchez. Most of the Rays’ damage was done by the top two hitters ― Logan Forsythe (2-4, 2B, BB) and Brad Miller (2-3, HR, RBI, R). Even so, Toronto’s hurler kept the wolves at bay with a 96 mph fastball (on average), and a sharp upper 70s curveball with a lot of depth.
Forsythe and Miller led off the game with back-to-back singles in the first, yet Sanchez bounced back to fan Evan Longoria and Corey Dickerson on three pitches each, and Steven Souza Jr. popped out to end the threat. Then in the third, Forsythe doubled to right-center, and Miller walked, yet Longoria lined to right and Dickerson went down swinging. Forsythe walked and swiped second with two outs in the fifth, however Miller grounded sharply to short to end the inning.
Entering the series, Tampa Bay scored 16 of its last 19 runs with two outs, while its .510 slugging percentage with two outs is tops in the American League. Though they had opportunities to plate runs with two outs, none would cross the plate Friday night.
Sanchez scattered six hits, walked two and struck out six over seven scoreless innings. Aside from Forsythe, no Ray got into scoring position against the Toronto righty.
Steve Geltz took over for Smyly in the seventh inning and threw a scoreless frame, but Saunders homered for the second time in the eighth off Dana Eveland. Of Saunders’ four home runs this season, three have come against Tampa Bay. Then with two outs in the inning, Justin Smoak came up with a big two-run single against Ryan Webb with the bases loaded, giving Toronto four two-out runs. For a team with a solid bullpen, that statistic isn’t very good.
Tampa Bay prevented a shutout in the bottom of the eighth when Miller homered to right off Drew Storen.
Stirrup power for Brad’s 2nd #Rays HR.
We’ll take a few more in the 9th. #RaysUp
WATCH: https://t.co/h37IG11sBJ pic.twitter.com/AQivobPm2G
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) April 30, 2016
Ryan Goins hit the fourth Toronto homer in the ninth off Jhan Marinez, capping the scoring. In the end, five Toronto’s six runs came with two out. I left the cozy confines of section 143 at that point, bag of sunflower seeds in hand.
The Rays and Blue Jays will square off again on Saturday. Chris Archer gets the start opposite lefty J.A. Happ. Archer has faced Toronto more than any other team in his career, collecting a 5-4 record and a 3.28 ERA in 16 career starts against the Blue Jays. Happy is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, and is seeking his fourth straight victory this season. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Forsythe 2B
Guyer RF
Longoria 3B
Pearce 1B
Souza DH
Jennings LF
Beckham SS
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Archer RHP
— Curt Casali will likely catch Archer on Saturday. Jennings is expected to return to the lineup while Brandon Guyer will start for a second consecutive day.
— Per Bill Chastain (MLB.com), Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have faced Archer more than anyone else, but they haven’t enjoyed much success. Bautista is hitting .147 with one homer and five RBIs in 34 at-bats, while Encarnacion is hitting .154 with three homers and eight RBIs in 39 at-bats.
