LBWMF: Rays come from behind to beat ‘Stros, 6-3; the Ramirez effect; Hunter headed to DL

Austin Pruitt: this season’s Erasmo Effect candidate. (Photo Credit: Tamps Bay Rays)

Hampered by injury and illness, as well as a short start by a shaky Blake Snell, the Tampa Bay Rays came from behind on Saturday to beat the Houston Astros 6–3. Tampa Bay has now won four of five on the homestand after splitting the first two games with the Astros.

Before I get started, I want to take you back to a time just two years in the past. The Rays traded for a chronically smiling pitcher named Erasmo Ramirez, who previously pitched for the Seattle Mariners. In Erasmo’s first two starts, he allowed 15 earned runs in 5-1/3 innings of work — approximately 22% of the total number of earned runs he would allow over 163-1/3 back in that fateful season.

“Light the effigies, take up the pitchforks, and run Erasmo out of town!” more than a few people cried after the first two woeful appearances by the right-hander, who has become a mainstay in the Rays’ bullpen. Ramirez ended his 2015 campaign by slashing a pretty good .272 BABIP/3.75 ERA/3.76 FIP/2.3 fWAR. Dare I say he also became beloved by Rays’ fans? I like to call that the Erasmo effect.

Moving forward.

Houston built a 2–0 lead against Blake Snell on solo homers by Evan Gattis in the second, and Jose Altuve in the fourth. For both, it was their first homers of the season.

Despite allowing three runs on three hits — to put things bluntly — Snell was not good. It never felt like the left-hander was in  control, as he walked five, and of his 87 pitches, only 39 went for strikes. Somehow and in some way Snell kept the Rays in the ball-game.

Down by a pair, the Rays tied the game in the fifth inning after Evan Longoria lashed a two-run double to center, scoring Tim Beckham and Corey Dickerson.

Snell was ultimately lifted after a leadoff walk of Altuve the following inning, and it became clear that Tampa Bay would have to overcome another short start for the 11th consecutive time.

After nearly being doubled up on a line drive to Steven Souza Jr. by Carlos Correa, Altuve stole second during Gattis’ sixth inning at-bat.

Then with the ‘Stros catcher still at the plate, Altuve broke for third. Gattis chopped a ball toward Logan Morrison, who was well off the bag at first. Reliever Tommy Hunter broke to cover first base, yet pulled up short with a leg issue that led to his early departure from the game (with right calf tightness). Instead of making an easy toss over, Morrison had to make the long put out himself, and Altuve beat out Morrison’s throw home easily. Astros up 3-2…although that lead was short lived.

Down by one, Souza began a rally which would put the Rays on the winning side of the ledger. Souza hit a double to left-center against starter Charlie Morton, bringing LoMo to the plate. Morrison quickly fell behind 0-2, thanks to a called strike two was high and a couple inches inside.

FoxTrax didn’t like that pitch at all, even though BrooksBaseball has it in the zone.

LoMo unloaded on home plate umpire CB Bucknor, but miraculously didn’t get tossed. One thing is certain, Bucknor stopped calling the pitch inside off the plate, and Morrison took his walk because of it.

Derek Norris showed bunt on the first two pitches of his at-bat, then lined a singled to center, loading the bases with none out. A.J. Hinch had seen enough, and called upon Will Harris to place a tourniquet upon the gushing wound…although subsequently for not.

Shane Peterson plated a run on an infield hit, tying the game at three. Beckham then blooped a ball to right-field for a hit, putting the Rays ahead for the first time of the game. They weren’t done.

After Corey Dickerson grounded into a fielder’s choice, Peter Bourjos — pinch hitting for Kevin Kiermaier, who left the game due to illness — singled past Carlos Correa, who was drawn in, for a two-run single, and a three-run lead.

Austin Pruitt entered the game in relief to get the last out of the sixth, then came back out 33 minutes to start and finish the seventh. He also came out to start and finish the eighth. Pruitt gave up no hits and no walks while fanning two, and looked really good along the way.

I’d argue Pruitt is the 2017 version of the previously maligned Erasmo Ramirez, i.e. the Ramirez effect. After allowing 12 runs (10 earned) over 5-2/3+ innings, he has tossed 5-2/3 scoreless innings of one hit, no walk ball; racking up seven strikeouts along the way. He has also lowered his BABIP from .576 to .465, and his +10 ERA to 7.94 (and a much more reasonable 3.32 FIP).

I get it, it’s easy to over react and speak in hyperbolic terms after the Rays cobbled together a pretty crappy bullpen last season. However, when speaking in terms of incredibly small sample sizes and crap luck, it’s nice to see Pruitt bounce back and offer Tampa Bay high quality relief outings, which will be incredibly important moving forward with Brad Boxberger, Shawn Tolleson and Xavier Cedeno on the disabled list, and now Hunter also heading there.

Before Alex Colome worked a scoreless ninth, allowing just a single, this happened in the bottom of eighth:

The only explanation, Souza is a weird dude.

The New What Next

— The Rays have placed RHP Tommy Hunter on the 10-day DL with a right calf strain. In doing so, they have opted for bullpen length and recalled Chih-Wei Hu from the Durham Bulls. Tampa Bay got Hu — who will be making his MLB debut — from the Twins in the 2015 Kevin Jepsen trade.

— The Rays will conclude their homestand on Sunday, when Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 4.20 FIP) takes the mound opposite of Joe Musgrove (1-1, 5.87 ERA, 5.46 FIP).

Andriese picked up his first win of the season Tuesday night when he held the Tigers to one run on four hits and a walk, while striking out five over six innings. Andriese has stifled both left and right-handed hitting, with lefties hitting .217, and righties hitting .275.

Musgrove, the second-year right-hander, is still looking to work deeper into games. Over his first three starts, he has hurled five innings twice and 5-1/3 innings once. Musgrove told reporters that trying to navigate through the lineup the third time through the order is key. The right-hander, who has never faced the Rays, relies primarily upon a 93 mph four-seam fastball, and an 83 mph slider with short glove-side cut. He also mixes in a 91 mph worm burner of a sinker, an 83 mph changeup, and an 81 mph curveball.

You can read about the series, and so much more, in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 4/23/17 Starting Lineup

(Photo Credit: Roger Mooney/Tampa Bay Times)

Noteworthiness

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the Rays’ bullpen malaise the team now finds itself in:

After losing Cedeno for what will be at least a couple of months due to forearm tightness, the Rays decided, for now, that their bullpen will be all right with just right-handers, though by the end of the night it looked like Hunter won’t be among them.

What that means is, expect to see a lot of righty Danny Farquhar and hope he has the good changeup to get out some tough lefties, such as Chris Davis, who will be waiting when the Rays get to Baltimore tonight.

“It’s not ideal obviously,” pitching coach Jim Hickey said.

How does a major-league team get in that position?

It takes some work. Primarily because in taking aim to improve the overall depth of their roster this winter, they neglected the lefty side of the bullpen.

Once they gave up on the Dana Eveland experience during spring training, they were left with only Cedeno in the majors, Justin Marks at Triple A (then adding Adam Kolarek) and raw prospect Jose Alvarado (who is on the 40-man roster) at Double A.

The Rays were last without a lefty reliever in April 2015 before they acquired a guy named Xavier Cedeno, who had been dumped by the Nationals and Dodgers.

They’ll need to be as resourceful, or as fortunate, again. Otherwise, a lot of hard work could go to waste.

The New What Next: Rays look to bounce back from 6-3 loss to the ‘Stros

Like a caged monkey, there I was behind the fence in centerfield last night. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

Despite hitting solo homers in each of the first three innings Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays couldn’t hold on to a two-run lead past the fourth inning, as they fell to the Houston Astros, 6-3.


Source: FanGraphs

Things we learned from last night’s ball game:

— Cobb was pretty damn whiffy last night, racking up seven strikeouts; six swinging swinging K’s, and three on his changeup. Overall, Cobb pitched well, limiting a very tough Astros’ offense, and getting some ugly whiffs oh his changeup — the difference maker (when it’s on) in his repertoire.

The right-hander both mixed his pitches and changed locations well. One more thing: Cobb owns Jose Altuve, who chronically gets on base and uses his speed to cause chaos. That, however, was not the case last night as Cobb not only picked him off once, but twice at first.

— Do not f**k with Kevin Kiermaier:

— Additionally, do not f**k with Tim Beckham (which admittedly is hard to type):

— Conversely, do not f**k with the Astro’s bullpen. In the words of the inimitable Neil Solondz (Rays Radio):

Meanwhile, Houston’s standout bullpen was in control after Mike Fiers went the first five innings. Michael Feliz worked a 1–2–3 6th, and then Will Harris pitched around a Tim Beckham single in the seventh. Luke Gregerson was perfect in the eighth, and Ken Giles in the ninth.

The New What Next

The Rays and Astros will play game two of three tonight with Blake Snell (0-2, 2.76 ERA, 4.20 FIP) taking the mound opposite right-hander Charlie Morton (1-1, 2.81 ERA, 3.61 FIP).

Snell dropped to 0-2 on the season, despite allowing just one earned run on seven hits over five innings of work. He was done in by sloppy defensive play behind him in that outing. The southpaw tinkered with throwing pitches primarily out of the stretch in that start, so it will be interesting to see if he continues to pitch as though there are men on base, on Saturday. He is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA at the Trop.

Morton will make his fourth start of season. He worked six innings in his first start, but has lasted only five innings in his last two, including five shutout innings against the Angels. He made four starts last year before incurring an injury. The former Phillie (and Pirate) has faced the Rays just one time in his career, back in 2014 when he allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits over seven innings. Morton relies primarily upon a heavy 95 mph sinker with decent tailing action, and an 81 mph knuckle curveball which generates a fair number of whiffs. He will also mix in an 88 mph cutter — that despite its name, has little cutting action — and an 86 mph splitter. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-9, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (4-8, 2 2B, RBI), Derek Norris (2-8), Shane Peterson (2-4, 2 RBI)

You can read about the pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.

Rays 4/22/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson DH
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Souza Jr. RF
Morrison 1B
Norris C
Peterson LF
Beckham SS
Snell LHP

The New What Next: Rays vs Astros — a series preview

The Rays start the series with the Astros over .500 once more, 8-2 at home, and winners of their first series sweep of the Tigers since 2010. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

What a difference four days make. On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays sat two games under .500 following a disastrous 1-6 roadtrip. Fast forward a few days, and the team is riding a huge wave of momentum following a three-game sweep of the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers. The Rays welcome another first place team, the Houston Astros, into the Trop on Friday for the start of a three-game set.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays didn’t just beat the Tigers, they absolutely mauled them over the span of the series, outscoring Detroit 21-9. Tampa Bay has been sensational at home, thanks in part to Steven Souza Jr. The outfielder had three hits for the Rays in the series finale, including a line drive home run to left. Souza has been great thus far, batting .349 with three homers and 15 RBI.

Following the game, Souza spoke about his improved play with the media:

Superlatives aside, Tampa Bay might have its hands full with the 11-5 Astros — a team that has gone 8-2 over a 10-game stretch…a team that doesn’t strike out much…a team that has outperformed the Rays over the last 14 days in almost every important offensive metric, even though that offense has been largely inconsistent in 2017. They also have solid pitching and one of the best relief staffs in the league. Thankfully they will not face the two-headed beast that is Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. There is hope, thanks to the inimitable Neil Solondz (Rays Radio):

The Astros have won seven of eight games started by Dallas Keuchel or Lance McCullers Jr, two pitchers the Rays will not see this weekend. The team is 4–4 when someone else starts.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will throw Alex Cobb (1-1, 4.50 ERA, 5.09 FIP), Blake Snell (0-2, 2.76 ERA, 4.20 FIP), and Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 4.20 FIP) over the next three days. A.J. Hinch will respond with Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 6.42 FIP), Charlie Morton (1-1, 2.81 ERA, 3.61 FIP), and Joe Musgrove (1-1, 5.87 ERA, 5.46 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Cobb allowed four earned runs on 11 hits and a walk in a five-inning no-decision Sunday against Boston. He is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in one career start against the Astros, and 18-14 with a 3.27 ERA in 46 career starts at Tropicana Field.

Fiers will make his first start in eight days after the Astros pushed him back in the rotation, when their game in Oakland was rained out on Sunday. The right-hander had a 1-0 record and a 3.38 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay last season, and is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA at the Trop. Fiers leans heavily on his 89 mph four seam fastball which generates a high number of swings and misses, and an 85 mph fly ball inducing cutter. He also mixes in an 82 mph changeup, a 73 mph curveball, and an 82 mph slider. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-5, HR, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-10, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 2B)

Snell dropped to 0-2 on the season, despite allowing just one earned run on seven hits over five innings of work. He was done in by sloppy defensive play behind him in that outing. The southpaw tinkered with throwing pitches primarily out of the stretch in that start, so it will be interesting to see if he continues to pitch as though there are men on base, on Saturday. He is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA at the Trop.

Morton will make his fourth start of season. He worked six innings in his first start, but has lasted only five innings in his last two, including five shutout innings against the Angels. He made four starts last year before incurring an injury. The former Phillie (and Pirate) has faced the Rays just one time in his career, back in 2014 when he allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits over seven innings. Morton relies primarily upon a heavy 95 mph sinker with decent tailing action, and an 81 mph knuckle curveball which generates a fair number of whiffs. He will also mix in an 88 mph cutter — that despite its name, has little cutting action — and an 86 mph splitter. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-9, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (4-8, 2 2B, RBI), Derek Norris (2-8), Shane Peterson (2-4, 2 RBI)

Andriese picked up his first win of the season Tuesday night when he held the Tigers to one run on four hits and a walk, while striking out five over six innings. Andriese has stifled both left and right-handed hitting, with lefties hitting .217, and righties hitting .275.

Musgrove, the second-year right-hander, is still looking to work deeper into games. Over his first three starts, he has hurled five innings twice and 5-1/3 innings once. Musgrove told reporters that trying to navigate through the lineup the third time through the order is key. The right-hander, who has never faced the Rays, relies primarily upon a 93 mph four-seam fastball, and an 83 mph slider with short glove-side cut. He also mixes in a 91 mph worm burner of a sinker, an 83 mph changeup, and an 81 mph curveball.

Noteworthiness

— Important numbers (per some sports betting site):

  • Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
  • Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rays are 2-6 in Cobb’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Rays are 1-4 in Cobb’s last 5 starts.

The New What Next: Rays look for series sweep against Tigers Thursday afternoon


Shane Peterson collected a couple of hits Thursday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are aiming for a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers this afternoon, following an epic ninth inning come-from-behind victory Wednesday night. By epic I mean weird, as the game was chocked full of unexpected twists and turns.


Source: FanGraphs

The game, in fact, was so weird:

— Chris Archer, and the Rays bullpen, allowed a four run lead in the fifth and sixth innings to evaporate.

— Down by a pair, Austin Pruitt took the mound for the final out of the sixth, and struck out Victor Martinez. From then on, Pruitt posted three more innings of one-hit ball, while fanning four other Tigers. Yes you read that correctly, Pruitt tallied a 13.6 K/9 over the span of 11 at-bats.

— In the bottom of the ninth, down by one, and with the bases loaded, Logan Morrison hit a dribbler to second that appeared to be the game-ending double play. But with this game being this game, after Ian Kinsler fed the ball to Jose Iglesias, the Tigers’ shortstop slipped on the bag while making the transfer.

Iglesias, in mid throw, fell to the ground, and the ball sailed well past Miguel Cabrera. Kevin Kiermaier easily crossed the plate from third, while pinch-runner Peter Bourjos scored from second, giving the Rays an unlikely win.

Adding insult to injury, Brad Miller began his slide almost simultaneously to when Iglesias began to crumple to the ground. A few split seconds later, Iglesias laid face-first on the infield dirt after his head met Miller’s knee.

Rays walk-off on throwing error

Logan Morrison reaches first on a throwing error by Jose Iglesias, allowing Peter Bourjos to score the game-winning run for a walk-off win

— Did I mention the bases-clearing triple, off the bat of Nick Castellanos, that Kiermaier attempted to snare, but narrowly missed?

— What about the other odd plays in the outfield.

In short, last night’s game was incredibly odd, yet the outcome was cathartic to say the least. You can read a more complete recap both here and here.

The New What Next

The Rays will take on the Tigers one last time at home this afternoon, in the series Finale. Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 3.72 ERA, 4.90 FIP) will take the mound in the place of the ailing Jake Odorizzi, pitching opposite of Daniel Norris (1-0, 2.19 ERA, 3.50 FIP).

Norris threw six scoreless innings Friday, allowing just two hits but issuing four walks while striking out five in a win over the Indians. Norris relies heavily upon a 94 mph worm-buring four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a hard 87 mph slider, a whiffy 86 mph changeup and a 77 mph swing-and-miss curveball. Key matchup: Evan Longoria (3-4, 2B, RBI, BB)

You can read more on the series in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 4/20/17 Starting Lineup

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(Photo Credit: Roger Mooney/Tampa Bay Times)

Noteworthiness

— Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), the wild victory was Tampa Bay’s first that ended on an error since August 24th last year, when Heath Hembree’s miscue complete a victory over the Boston Red Sox. A sweep of Detroit (8–6) would be Tampa Bay’s first against the Tigers since July 26–29, 2010, the last time the Rays won the AL East.

LBWMF: Andriese, Rays snap three-game skid, beat Tigers 5-1

Rays the roof…or something like that. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

Matt Andriese continued to improve after his first rough outing of the season, out-dueling the reigning rookie of the year Michael Fulmer, and helping the Tampa Bay Rays snap a three-game skid with a 5–1 win against the Detroit Tigers. The Rays are now 6–2 at Tropicana Field.

Detroit scored its only run against Andriese in the first inning, when Miguel Cabrera — who was celebrating his 34th birthday — hit a massive 451-foot blast off the batter’s eye in center-field.

However, the right-hander locked it in from that point on. After Victor Martinez hit a two out single to right, Andriese collected the first of his five strikeouts on the night against Justin Upton, then efficiently mowed through the potent, albeit it scuffling, Tigers’ offense. He attacked the strike zone with his four-seam fastball (52 thrown, 32 strikes), and played off the hard stuff with his changeup (32 thrown, 22 strikes).

Andriese was also able to make big pitches when he needed to. For example, Jose Iglesias led off the third inning with a single to right, then swiped second base to get into scoring position. Nick Castellanos followed by moving Iglesias to third on a ground out to short, leaving Andriese to face the ever dangerous Cabrera for the second time of the game.

The right-hander got ahead of Miggy 1-2 before throwing a beautiful changeup in the dirt. The mighty Miggy went down swinging.

With a head full of steam following the big last out of the top of the frame, the Rays took the lead in the bottom of the inning against Fulmer, who allowed only one run in 14 innings against Tampa Bay last season.

Shane Peterson blooped a single to left in front of the lolly-gagging Justin Upton, before Tim Beckham followed two pitches later with a two-run blast to section 145 left for a one-run lead.

I believe they call that a “bloop and a blast.” It was Beckham’s second homer of the season, as well as the second in three days.

Tampa Bay added to its lead in the sixth. After Brad Miller walked with one out, the second baseman moved to second on a Steven Souza Jr. single. Miller tagged up on Logan Morrison’s sac-fly to center before Derek Norris delivered a line drive single to left, plating the run.

Still it was a tight, two-run game in the seventh when Andriese took the mound. The righty walked V-Mart on a borderline 3–2 pitch, snapping a streak of 12 straight that had been retired. Andriese followed by allowing an opposite field single to Upton after a nine-pitch battle. Andriese was done. With two on, Rays manager Kevin Cash went with the right-handed LOOGY Danny Farquhar to face Tyler Collins.

Collins chopped a ball over the mound which Beckham fielded and got the force at second. Yet the throw to first was late because Upton made contact with Beckham as he threw over to Morrison. The play went under review (the Rays challenged whether Upton violated the slide rule), yet the call stood. Alex Avila struck out with runners on the corners before Tommy Hunter entered in relief and got Jacoby Jones to fly out to left on one pitch, ending the threat.

All told, Andriese worked into the seventh inning for the first time in 2017, and was charged with just a run on four hits, while walking one and striking out five.

The Rays added to their lead in the bottom of the seventh. Beckham reached on an infield single, then came home on Kevin Kiermaier’s double to the left-center gap off southpaw Kyle Ryan. Two batters later, Miller singled to center, scoring Kiermaier to push the lead to four runs — capping the scoring on the night.

Jumbo Diaz and Alex Colome made the lead stand up, pitching perfect eighth and ninth innings respectively.


Seriously though, was there ever doubt the Rays would win? (Source: FanGraphs)

The New What Next

The Rays play game two of three against the Tigers on Wednesday night. Chris Archer (2-0, 2.21 ERA, 2.04 FIP) will toe the rubber, opposite of Jordan Zimmerman (1-1. 5.06 ERA, 4.99 FIP).

Archer fanned five and gave up one earned run on six hits and two walks over 5-2/3 innings of the 10-5 win over the Red Sox on Friday. Archer fired 102 pitches across his start, and didn’t collect as many whiffs as usual — notching a modest nine swinging strikes. He, however, was able to limit the damage to just an RBI single in the sixth.

Zimmerman allowed five runs on four hits, while issuing five free passes over 4-2/3 innings on Thursday. After starting the game with a pair of scoreless frames, things spiraled out of control for Zimmerman shortly after. The right-hander said some of his struggles had to do with gripping the baseball. Zimmerman most often relies upon a 92 mph fly ball inducing four-seam Fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph slider, a whiffy 81 mph curveball and an 81 mph circle change. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2), Peter Bourjos (1-3), Corey Dickerson (4-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-4), Evan Longoria (3-10, BB), Derek Norris (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (3-5, HR, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (5-9, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our Rays/Le Tigre series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup as it becomes available.

Rays 4/19/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson DH
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Souza RF
Morrison 1B
Norris C
Peterson LF
Beckham SS
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— 59% of the Rays runs this season have been scored in the first three innings.

— The Rays are now 6-2 when they score at least four runs, and 5-1 when they score at least five. Not even Austin Pruitt can mess that up.