What a difference four days make. On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays sat two games under .500 following a disastrous 1-6 roadtrip. Fast forward a few days, and the team is riding a huge wave of momentum following a three-game sweep of the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers. The Rays welcome another first place team, the Houston Astros, into the Trop on Friday for the start of a three-game set.
The Rays didn’t just beat the Tigers, they absolutely mauled them over the span of the series, outscoring Detroit 21-9. Tampa Bay has been sensational at home, thanks in part to Steven Souza Jr. The outfielder had three hits for the Rays in the series finale, including a line drive home run to left. Souza has been great thus far, batting .349 with three homers and 15 RBI.
Following the game, Souza spoke about his improved play with the media:
#Rays Souza on his improved play: pic.twitter.com/AuaKDphkaG
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) April 20, 2017
Superlatives aside, Tampa Bay might have its hands full with the 11-5 Astros — a team that has gone 8-2 over a 10-game stretch…a team that doesn’t strike out much…a team that has outperformed the Rays over the last 14 days in almost every important offensive metric, even though that offense has been largely inconsistent in 2017. They also have solid pitching and one of the best relief staffs in the league. Thankfully they will not face the two-headed beast that is Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. There is hope, thanks to the inimitable Neil Solondz (Rays Radio):
The Astros have won seven of eight games started by Dallas Keuchel or Lance McCullers Jr, two pitchers the Rays will not see this weekend. The team is 4–4 when someone else starts.
Kevin Cash will throw Alex Cobb (1-1, 4.50 ERA, 5.09 FIP), Blake Snell (0-2, 2.76 ERA, 4.20 FIP), and Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 4.20 FIP) over the next three days. A.J. Hinch will respond with Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 6.42 FIP), Charlie Morton (1-1, 2.81 ERA, 3.61 FIP), and Joe Musgrove (1-1, 5.87 ERA, 5.46 FIP).
Pitching matchups
Cobb allowed four earned runs on 11 hits and a walk in a five-inning no-decision Sunday against Boston. He is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in one career start against the Astros, and 18-14 with a 3.27 ERA in 46 career starts at Tropicana Field.
Fiers will make his first start in eight days after the Astros pushed him back in the rotation, when their game in Oakland was rained out on Sunday. The right-hander had a 1-0 record and a 3.38 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay last season, and is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA at the Trop. Fiers leans heavily on his 89 mph four seam fastball which generates a high number of swings and misses, and an 85 mph fly ball inducing cutter. He also mixes in an 82 mph changeup, a 73 mph curveball, and an 82 mph slider. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-7, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-5, HR, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-10, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 2B)
Snell dropped to 0-2 on the season, despite allowing just one earned run on seven hits over five innings of work. He was done in by sloppy defensive play behind him in that outing. The southpaw tinkered with throwing pitches primarily out of the stretch in that start, so it will be interesting to see if he continues to pitch as though there are men on base, on Saturday. He is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA at the Trop.
Morton will make his fourth start of season. He worked six innings in his first start, but has lasted only five innings in his last two, including five shutout innings against the Angels. He made four starts last year before incurring an injury. The former Phillie (and Pirate) has faced the Rays just one time in his career, back in 2014 when he allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits over seven innings. Morton relies primarily upon a heavy 95 mph sinker with decent tailing action, and an 81 mph knuckle curveball which generates a fair number of whiffs. He will also mix in an 88 mph cutter — that despite its name, has little cutting action — and an 86 mph splitter. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-9, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (4-8, 2 2B, RBI), Derek Norris (2-8), Shane Peterson (2-4, 2 RBI)
Andriese picked up his first win of the season Tuesday night when he held the Tigers to one run on four hits and a walk, while striking out five over six innings. Andriese has stifled both left and right-handed hitting, with lefties hitting .217, and righties hitting .275.
Musgrove, the second-year right-hander, is still looking to work deeper into games. Over his first three starts, he has hurled five innings twice and 5-1/3 innings once. Musgrove told reporters that trying to navigate through the lineup the third time through the order is key. The right-hander, who has never faced the Rays, relies primarily upon a 93 mph four-seam fastball, and an 83 mph slider with short glove-side cut. He also mixes in a 91 mph worm burner of a sinker, an 83 mph changeup, and an 81 mph curveball.
Noteworthiness
— Important numbers (per some sports betting site):
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 2-6 in Cobb’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 1-4 in Cobb’s last 5 starts.