…In the bottom of the inning, with the Tampa Bay Rays ahead by a run, Rays skipper Kevin Cash made a difficult decision — keep closer Alex Colome on the mound for the second-straight inning.
The decision proved costly. Colome has not fared well in these types of situations, and true to form the right-hander was not sharp. He allowed two hits and two walks, and subsequently gave up the lead on a sacrifice-fly. This, after El Caballo blew a two inning save on April 23rd (vs. the Astros) when he allowed a run on two hits and a walk over a pair of innings.
I’ve asked a lot of Alex, there is no doubt about that, Cash said in his post game presser. He’s thrown a lot for us. I knew I was stretching him, but you want your best guy out there when the game is on the line. so extremely happy with the way he performed. I’d asked a lot of him going into that. His workload has been fairly heavy. … We’ve asked a lot. Alex is going to take the ball anytime you ask him so it’s kind of on me to manage that.
Without a lefty pen, Cash made the decision to go with de facto LOOGY, summoning Danny Farquhar to face Seth Smith.
Smith worked a four-pitch walk, completing a late inning rally for the Orioles for the win.
Cash did an excellent job managing the ‘pen on Tuesday, however, his decisions last night and Monday absolutely were part and parcel for why the Rays lost both of those contests.
Looking for a more expansive game summery? Check out:
To set the scene, let’s rewind approximately 24-hours. Chris Archer once again took the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays in the sixth after posting shaky first, third, and fifth innings. Somehow in spite of the rainy weather — which undoubtedly made it hard for Archer, whose slider was not sharp (41 thrown, 22 strikes, 17 whiffs) and changeup practically absent (four thrown, 0 strikes) — Archer kept the wolves at bay and his team in the game. Yet everything changed in the sixth.
With two outs, Archer left a cement mixer over the heart of the plate, which Hyun Soo Kim deposited in the right-field stands. One pitch later, Jonathan Schoop did the same.
Whatever command Archer had on Monday night faded from the jump, yet Rays skipper Kevin Cash inexplicably chose to send him back out to face the top of the order for a fourth time the following inning. …And as fate would have it, after a hit-by-pitch of Seth Smith, Adam Jones crushed a no-doubter to left, giving Baltimore the go ahead runs.
The question begs: Should Cash have hung his hopes on Archer the third and fourth times through the order, on a night when he was bereft of command?
There are a few known knowns when talking about trips through the order. First, pitchers pitch better the first time through the order, than they do overall. Secondly, starters get progressively worse as they face the lineup for the second, third, and fourth times. Those points, combined with chart below, speak volumes about Archer in 2017.
(Stats: FanGraphs)
This season, Archer’s ERA (+6.72), batting average against (+.239), weighted on base average (+.275), BABIP (+.186), and BB/9 (+3.62) have increased precipitously from the first time through the order through the third, while his K/9 (-5.05) and K/BB (-3.53) have fallen dramatically. Last night was no different; in fact, Archer’s last three starts have followed a similar pattern.
There’s another interesting correlation when speaking of times through the order. If a batter has seen more than four pitches in his first plate appearance, he hits 25 points better the second time around. It stands to reason that the greater number of pitches a batter sees, the better his next PA will be. And unless a pitcher makes adjustments, it would be reasonable to assume that the batter would hit better the third and fourth times through order. Interestingly enough, both Kim and Jones saw at least four pitches in their first plate appearances (and 11 pitches total prior to their big blasts), with Schoop — who saw two pitches before he flied out — being the outlier.
Of course there is some irony by posing the question, whether Cash should have continued to rely upon Archer. The Rays’ skipper received tons of heat two years ago for pulling his starters prior to the seventh inning, which he acknowledged in a Q&A session at the 2015 Winter Meetings:
I pulled them quicker than anybody and probably took a lot of heat for it. Coming into the season, we felt that was the best chance for us to win. Looking back, when it works it works, and everybody is happy. When it doesn’t work, there are people who want to ask questions, which we understand.
Times through the order, we value that — not to the extent of maybe what is brought up, but we do value it. We also value the eye test and how our pitchers are doing in that given start.
If Cash evaluated Archer on the seeing eye test Monday night, I’d have to question his vision. If he based his decision on the pitch count, I’d remind him that pitch count does not have much of an effect on times through the order. From the point of view of a rabid baseball fan, and/or that of an armchair manager, I would have had a reliever warming in the ‘pen with Archer on the mound in the sixth. A 19 pitch first (58% strikes), a 22 pitch third (45% strikes) and a 20 pitch fifth (60% strikes) — paired with the fact that Archer lacked command of his secondary pitches — are more than enough for me to base my decision on. That Archer hasn’t fared well the third and fourth times through the order only strengthens my resolve.
Baltimore Orioles’ Manny Machado, left, greets teammate Adam Jones after Jones hit a two-run home run in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in Baltimore. (Photo Credit: Beaumont Enterprise)
The Tampa Bay Rays are set to play the Orioles tonight, although the weather may again prove to be a challenge. The weather report out of Charm City, it has been raining lightly for most of the afternoon, but the forecast — which is not particularly encouraging — does improve slightly later.
Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 3.48 ERA) will take the mound for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Wade Miley (1-0, 1.89 ERA, 3.15 FIP).
Ramirez making his second start in place of Jake Odorizzi, who was expected to test his hamstring today in a simulated game. The team, however, pushed the simulated game back to Wednesday, putting him on schedule for a Monday return. Erasmo was superb in his start on 4/20, allowing just one run and two hits in five innings against the Tigers (on 66 pitches). He is expected to have a longer leash tonight. One thing that is concerning, Ramirez has given up three home runs in his past four appearances.
Miley is coming off an excellent start in Cincinnati, where he tossed eight scoreless frames. The outing was the longest by a Baltimore starter this season. Miley tends to rely on his 91 mph sinker (41% of the time) with a lot of arm-side run, his 92 mph four seam fastball (22% of the time) with good “rising action,” and his 84 mph slider (22% of the time) — by far his best pitch. He’ll also mix in a 77 mph curveball (10% of the time) to coax a fly ball from time to time. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Derek Norris (3-3, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (4-13, 2B, 2 BB)
Rays 4/25/17 Starting Lineup
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Weeks DH
Morrison 1B
Beckham SS
Norris C
Bourjos LF
Ramirez RHP
Noteworthiness
— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), there appears to be a nod toward better defense as Logan Morrison is starting at 1B against the lefty, with Rickie Weeks at DH. That alos means rookie Daniel Robertson is not playing. I know what you’re thinking,
Beckham?! Better defensively than Robertson?!
From the Rays’ pregame notes, Beckham ranks third among all American League shortstops with a .988 fielding percentage (behind Ronald Torreyes and Alcides Escobar). He’s made one error in 82 chances. In Beckham’s favor, he has raised his DRS from -1 to +2.
— Steven Souza Jr. is in lineup a day after bruising his elbow jumping for a home run ball in last night’s ball game.
(Photo Credit: Major League Baseball)The Tampa Bay Rays will start a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, weather permitting.
Rays 4/24/17 Starting Lineup
Dickerson DH
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Souza RF
Morrison 1B
Beckham SS
Peterson LF
Norris C
Archer RHP
Noteworthiness
— Congradulations are in order for Steven Souza Jr., who was named the AL player of the week after scoring five runs, hitting five extra base hits, driving in nine RBI, and slashing .414 BA/.433 OBP/.759 SLG/1.292 OPS.
— The word from Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) is that Rays outfielder Mallex Smith (hamstring) played in an extended spring game in Port Charlotte today. He can be activated off the DL later this week, although, because outfielder Colby Rasmus likely also will be activated, Smith will probably be optioned to Triple-A Durham.
— Shortstop Matt Duffy is also on the trip with the Rays, which is a good sign that his rehab is going well.
— Per Mark Simon (ESPN) Blake Snell and Chris Archer rank second and 28th (respectively) as it relates to limiting hard contact (Twitter link). However, as Simon also noted, the Rays have one of the third worst bullpens in baseball (Twitter link).
The Rays begin an eight-game, nine-day roadtrip in Baltimore on Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
After winning their second consecutive home stand, yet dropping their first home series, the Tampa Bay Rays will begin an eight-game, nine day roadtrip. First stop Baltimore, where they’ll take on the Orioles over the next three days.
The Rays have been a nice surprise thus far. They are winners of four of their last six, and sit at the .500 mark at 10-10 on the season. The test for them will be to actually win games on this road trip — and moving forward — after going 1-6 on their disastrous trek through New York and Boston a couple of weeks back.
The Orioles have won four of their last five games — including the first two games against Boston this past weekend — after winning the series against the Cincinnati Reds. At 12-5 on the season, Baltimore currently leads the AL East by a game and a half over the Yankees, and seven and a half games over the last place Blue Jays.
(Stats: ESPN)
The O’s have played six series so far in 2017, and they have won five of them; something no one else in the majors can claim. That is, they have yet to lose a series. Interestingly enough though, over the last 14 days, the Rays have outperformed the Orioles in almost every offensive category. It will be interesting to see if Baltimore’s pitching staff can contain the Rays, and if Tampa Bay’s bullpen can contain the Orioles.
(Stats: FanGraphs)
Kevin Cash will lean on Chris Archer (2-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.70 FIP), Erasmo Ramirez (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 3.48 ERA), and Alex Cobb (1-2, 4.88 ERA, 4.59 FIP) over the next three days. Buck Showalter will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 5.51 ERA, 5.45 FIP), Wade Miley (1-0, 1.89 ERA, 3.15 FIP), and Dylan Bundy (3-1, 1.37 ERA, 1.82 FIP).
(Stats: FanGraphs)
Pitching matchups
Archer has totaled 10-2/3 innings pitched over his last two starts, compared to 14 2/3 innings pitched over his first two outings. Working in the right-hander’s favor, however, Archer has received 21 runs of support, and hasn’t allowed a homer this season. The righty threw 104 pitches (67 strikes) to get through his five innings of work in his last outing, as the Tigers routinely pushed Archer into deep counts. Whatever the case, he’s still enjoying a strong start to the 2017 season with a 3.20 ERA/1.70 FIP, and a 27:8 strike to walk ratio through 25-1/3 innings.
Jimenez turned in his first quality start of the year on Wednesday against Cincinnati, tossing 7-2/3 scoreless innings. Since joining the Orioles, Jimenez is 7–2 with a 3.12 ERA in interleague games, but 20–29 with a 5.03 ERA against American League ball clubs…but alas, he’s 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA against the Rays. He leans primarily on his four-seam fastball (34% of the time) which he uses to coax grounders, his sinker (27% of the time), and his splitter (18% of the time) and slider (14% of the time) when he wants a pop up. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (4-16, HR, 3 RBI), Logan Morrison (5-8, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-8, BB), Rickie Weeks Jr. (6-13, 2B, 3B, 3 BB)
Ramirez was superb in his start on 4/20 in place of Jake Odorizzi. He allowed just one run and two hits in five innings against the Tigers. One thing that is concerning, Ramirez has given up three home runs in his past four appearances.
Miley is coming off an excellent start in Cincinnati, where he tossed eight scoreless frames. The outing was the longest by a Baltimore starter this season. Miley tends to rely on his 91 mph sinker (41% of the time) with a lot of arm-side run, his 92 mph four seam fastball (22% of the time) with good “rising action,” and his 84 mph slider (22% of the time) — by far his best pitch. He’ll also mix in a 77 mph curveball (10% of the time) to coax a fly ball from time to time. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Derek Norris (3-3, RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (4-13, 2B, 2 BB)
Cobb will be try to snap a three-game losing streak and win his first game on the road since September 2016. He’s allowed 20 hits over his last two starts, and four earned runs in each of his last three, however, boding in his favor, Cobb rang up seven batters in his last outing — six swinging, and three on the changeup he’s been trying to “find.”
Bundy has pitched to a 1.37 ERA/1.82 FIP over four quality starts. The right-hander held Boston scoreless over seven-plus innings on Friday, yet was only given two runs of support…although the two runs were plenty. Bundy scattered six base hits in that outing, and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four starts. The hurler relies regularly on his 92 mph four seam fastball (42% of the time) with good “rising action,” and a whiffy 84 mph slider (25% of the time). He also tends to mix in an 84 mph worm-burner changeup (18% of the time), and a 76 mph curveball (13% of the time) with good 12-6 bite. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-5, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2)
