After a disappointing series sweep at the hands of the Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of the Trop, where they will start an important four-game series against the Orioles on Thursday. Baltimore most recently dropped two of three to the Dodgers.
The Rays enter play 60-39 on the season, 21 games over .500, and in a statistical tie for first place in the division with the Orioles.
The Rays’ offense showed signs of life against the Royals, yet they could only tally six total runs against the Rangers while stranding 18 runners on base over the life of the set, and going 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position (.067 wRISP BA). In short, Tampa Bay could get them on and get them over, but they couldn’t get them home … they couldn’t get that all-important timely hit when it was needed the most. Tampa Bay hasn’t been striking out at an obscene clip, rather they have been very unlucky over the last week — a .259 BABIP speaks to that.
There are signs that Tampa Bay’s hitters might be close to slipping out of their malaise — five batters barreled up the ball eight times in the series finale — however, it will take more than simply “getting close” this weekend. The offense will need some balls to drop into play at advantageous times, while the pitching staff will need to continue performing as it has since just prior to the All-Star Break.
The Orioles entered the series against the Dodgers in the midst of a multi-game winning streak, but promptly dropped the first two games of the series. Unfortunately for the Rays, Baltimore’s lone win came at a beneficial time for them, as it allowed the Orioles to pull into a statistical tie for first place with the Rays. Despite the down swell, the Orioles have performed 19% better than the Rays over the last week as it relates to wRC+ (99 wRC+ vs 121 wRC+). All told, over that stretch, Baltimore has slashed an above-average .269 BA/.333 OBP/.477 SLG/.810 OPS with a beefy .208 ISO.
The Rays enter play with an overall 3.73 ERA and 4.03 FIP (3.63 ERA and 3.67 FIP for the starters, 3.84 ERA, and 4.43 FIP for the relievers). Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay maintains a much improved 3.55 ERA and 3.70 FIP (3.68 ERA and 3.57 FIP for the starters, 3.43 ERA and 3.83 FIP for the relievers) given some pretty ugly numbers running up to the All-Star Break.
Meanwhile, the Rays should get their chances to put up some runs against an Orioles team that maintain an overall 4.23 ERA and 4.13 FIP (4.57 ERA and 4.50 FIP for the starters, 3.74 ERA, and 3.59 FIP for the relievers). A caveat: their numbers over the last 14 are much better, with Baltimore’s hurlers putting up a combined 3.66 ERA and a 3.55 FIP (4.04 ERA and a 3.58 FIP for the starters, and a 3.06 ERA and a 3.49 FIP for the relievers).
The Rays are 2-3 against the Orioles this season and 1-1 against them at the Trop.
Pitching Probables
Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (3-3, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP), Zach Eflin (10-5, 3.59 ERA, 3.14 FIP), Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.56 ERA, 3.84 FIP), and Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29 ERA, 3.96 FIP). Brandon Hyde will counter with Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.77 ERA, 3.95 FIP), Kyle Bradish (6-4, 3.05 ERA, 3.48 FIP), Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 7.33 ERA, 5.64 FIP), and Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA, 4.77 FIP).
Tyler Glasnow allowed one run on six hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over six innings on Saturday, against the Royals. Glasnow was originally slated to start Friday but had his outing pushed back a day due to inclement weather. The adjustment didn’t appear to bother the veteran hurler, as he notched his second quality start of the season. Glasnow departed his previous start against Atlanta early due to cramping in his hands and legs, so it was reassuring to see him go a full six frames and toss 95 pitches (62 strikes, 65% strike rate, 17% SwStr%. The right-hander has been a valuable asset since making his season debut on May 27, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 3.69 FIP, with a 1.24 WHIP, and a 3.94 K/BB over 47.2 innings.
Kyle Gibson coughed up five runs on nine hits and two walks over 5.1 innings against the Marlins. He struck out one. It was a shaky outing for the right-hander, who tossed 52 of 84 pitches for strikes (62% strike rate). Gibson has been tagged for at least four runs in four of his last five turns, posting a 7.62 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and 2.27 K/BB in 26 innings over that stretch. Gibson was very effective in his last outing against Tampa Bay, surrendering two runs on six hits (including a homer) and two walks across six innings. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (3-7, BB), Yandy Díaz (4-9, 2 BB), Wander Franco (2-3), Brandon Lowe (4-16, 2B, 3B, RBI), Josh Lowe (1-3, HR, RBI), Isaac Paredes (3-3, 2B), Luke Raley (1-3)
Zach Eflin allowed five runs on seven hits in three innings against the Royals on Sunday. He did not strike out or walk a batter and was pulled after just 46 pitches in his shortest start of the season. He tied his season high with seven hits allowed after the Royals pounced on him for one run in the first inning and four in the second while lacing three extra-base hits. In all fairness, two of those extra-base hits can be attributed to misplays by Manuel Margot. Nevertheless, Eflin had struck out at least five hitters in each of his last eight turns, but he wasn’t fooling anyone Sunday, recording his second outing this year with zero strikeouts. He still holds a respectable 3.59 ERA and a 3.14 FIP, with a 1.03 WHIP, and a 7.00 K/BB across 105.1 innings.
Kyle Bradish allowed three hits and a walk over 7.1 scoreless innings against the Marlins on Sunday. He struck out eight. Bradish picked up where he left off before the All-Star Break and has now delivered consecutive scoreless outings while pitching to a 1.41 ERA over his last six turns (38.1 innings). The 26-year-old lowered his ERA to 3.05, and his FIP to 3.48 on the season, with a 1.13 WHIP, and a 3.63 K/BB. Bradish allowed two runs on four hits and two walks across 5.0 innings the last time he faced the Rays. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (3-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Yandy Díaz (4-9, 2B), Wander Franco (1-3, RBI), Manuel Margot (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Francisco Mejía (3-6, 2B, 2 RBI), Luke Raley (2-3), Harold Ramírez (2-7, 2B, 2 RBI)
Shane McClanahan allowed two runs on three hits and no walks while striking out six batters over six innings against Texas on Monday. McClanahan landed on the Injured List with a back injury on July 1, but he needed only a near-minimum stay before facing Texas. The southpaw dominated in his first five frames, holding Texas scoreless on just one hit. However, Ezequiel Duran tagged him for a two-run homer in the sixth inning, which proved to be McClanahan’s final frame despite the fact that he needed just 69 pitches to reach that point. The low pitch count was likely a result of Tampa Bay being cautious following his recent injury, although it speaks volumes that the left-hander was able to notch a quality start without reaching 70 pitches. Overall, McClanahan owns a 2.56 ERA and a 3.84 FIP, with a 2.28 K/BB, and a 1.13 WHIP on the season.
Grayson Rodriguez yielded four runs on seven hits and two walks over five-plus innings on Monday against the Dodgers. He struck out four. Rodriguez looked strong Monday, yielding just one run through five frames, but he then allowed three straight batters to reach base in the sixth inning and was charged with three more runs. It was his first big-league outing since May 26 after a stint with Triple-A Norfolk and he now owns a 7.33 ERA and a 5.64 FIP through 50.1 career innings at the top level. Rodriguez gave up two runs on seven hits (including two homers) and two walks across 5.2 innings the last time he faced Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (1-3), Wander Franco (2-3, HR, RBI), Manuel Margot (1-2), Isaac Paredes (1-3), Luke Raley (1-2, BB), Taylor Walls (1-2, HR, RBI)
Taj Bradley was excellent on Tuesday, despite being credited with a loss in Texas, striking out nine and surrendering two runs on five hits and two walks over five innings. One of the runs on Bradley’s line crossed the plate after he was pulled from the contest. The right-hander entered Tuesday’s contest having surrendered 16 runs across his past three starts, so his performance against the AL West-leading Rangers was an encouraging sight. He gave up a solo homer to Marcus Semien in the third inning and continues to be hurt by the long ball with 12 home runs allowed through 14 turns. Overall, Bradley maintains a 5.29 ERA (which is belied by a 3.96 FIP), with a 4.24 K/BB, and a 1.39 WHIP across 66.1 innings.
Tyler Wells allowed five runs on six hits and two walks over two innings against the Dodgers in his last outing. He struck out two. It was the shortest outing of the season for Wells in his first start out after the All-Star Break, as the Dodgers put up five runs in the second inning. The loss ended an impressive run for Wells, who’d logged quality starts in five of his previous six turns — posting a 2.97 ERA over that stretch. Overall, the right-hander owns a 3.54 ERA and a 4.77 FIP, with a 0.98 WHIP, and a 4.04 K/BB across 18 starts (106.2 innings) on the season. Wells allowed four runs on four hits (including two homers) and two walks in a loss to the Rays the last time the two faced one another. Key Matchups: Brandon Lowe (2-6, HR, 2 RBI), Josh Lowe (3-5, 2 2B, BB), Isaac Paredes (2-7, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Luke Raler (1-4, HR, RBI), Harold Ramírez (3-10, 2B), José Siri (1-2, RBI), Taylor Walls (1-4, BB)
Noteworthiness
— After surrendering four runs in relief of Zach Eflin on Sunday, the Rays designated RHP Yonny Chirinos for assignment.
— The Rays recalled RHP Calvin Faucher before the series finale in Texas. To clear space on the roster, Javy Guerra was designated for assignment … again.
— Tampa Bay sent RHP Andrew Kittredge on a rehab assignment to Durham Bulls on Tuesday.