With their early exit from the 2022 postseason in the rearview mirror, the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off their campaign for American League domination on Thursday when they welcome the Lakeland Detroit Tigers into the Trop for a three-game, four-day series.
The known known: Tampa Bay is planning on contending this season. However, given that the Rays didn’t make many splashy moves in the offseason, that will be contingent on whether they can stay on the field long enough to make a World Series run. Last season, Wander Franco played just 83 games, Brandon Lowe lasted 65, and Tyler Glasnow barely ever took the mound. Optimistically speaking, good health and their presence in the clubhouse are akin to off-season free-agent additions. It should be noted, though, that Glasnow is just now throwing from 75 feet after incurring a grade two oblique strain in February. He won’t be back until the end of April.
Nevertheless, Tampa Bay is fresh and ready to play. The right-handed-heavy lineup — especially the top and middle of the order — will be challenging for Detroit’s hurlers to navigate. The one-man, worldwide wrecking crew, Randy Arozarena, put everyone on notice in the World Baseball Classic, and is ready to do the same in regular season play. Arozarena stole the show for Team Mexico and will be counted on for highlight-worthy plays, and in-the-clutch offense. Then, there’s the aforementioned Franco, who is projected (by Steamer) to perform to a solid .287 BA/.349 OBP/.448 SLG/.797 OPS/.346 wOBA slash line across 144 games, with a 132 wRC+. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention B. Lowe, who is expected to improve on last season’s performance to the tune of a .245 BA/.327 OBP/.454 SLG/.781 OPS/.339 wOBA line across 130 games, with a 127 wRC+, and 25 homers. That’s not to forget about Yandy Díaz and Manuel Margot, or anyone else on the team that is capable of blowing holes in the opposition.
Meanwhile, the Tigers, in theory, should be more competitive this season than last. It will come down to the young hitters to excel in 2023, as the *front office opted for talent evaluation over offensive solutions in the off-season.
Detroit has shown promise over the last two seasons but not enough to be ascendant. The most promising youngsters, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson will need to take a few steps forward if Detroit hopes to be a capable club in the future. Torkelson should produce more, and Greene is the team’s most-likely star, with middle-of-the-order potential and a good glove in center field. Be that as it may, neither can sully the fact that Detroit hit the fewest home runs and scored the fewest runs in baseball last season. Their -143.4 wRAA is not only a huge hurdle to overcome but dwarfs the Rays’ also ugly -36.2 figure.
The Rays went 5-2 against the Tigers last season, including 2-1 at the Trop, and outscored them 35-19.
*Sounds kind of like Tampa Bay, heh?
Pitching Probables
Over the next three games, Kevin Cash will turn to Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.46 ERA, 3.04 FIP), free-agent acquisition Zach Eflin (3-5, 4.04 ERA, 3.56 FIP), and Jeffrey Springs (9-5, 2.46 ERA, 2.95 FIP). A.J. Hinch will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (5-5, 4.04 ERA, 3.56 FIP), Spencer Turnbull (4-2, 2.88 ERA, 2.95 FIP), and Joey Wentz (2-2, 3.03 ERA, 3.64 FIP). Note: all of the W/L, ERA, and FIP numbers are from last season with the exception of Turnbull, whose numbers are from 2021.
Shane McClanahan posted a 2.46 ERA in 2022 with 194 strikeouts across 166.1 innings (28 starts), putting him firmly in the mix of 2023 AL Cy Young contenders (he came in sixth in voting). His four-pitch mix and upper-90s fastball is good enough to hold Tampa Bay over until Glasnow’s return and will have Detroit off-balance in the season opener. McClanahan posted a 3.04 FIP in ’22 with a 0.93 WHIP, and a 5.11 K/BB. Sugar Shane went 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA against the Tigers across 13.1 innings last season.
Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to shake off a 2022 campaign that saw him limited to 17 starts due to injury and personal issues. The southpaw has been excellent this spring, tossing 13 scoreless innings with a 7.5 K/BB. In his March 20 outing, Rodriguez posted 4.2 scoreless frames against the Nationals, scattering four hits and a walk while striking out five. Overall, he went 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.43 FIP, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 2.12 K/BB in ’22. He relies primarily on a 92 mph worm-killer fourseam fastball with natural sinking action and a whiffy 89 mph cutter, while also mixing in an 87 mph changeup that generates a lot of swings and misses, and a 92 mph sinker with a little arm-side run. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (5-13, 2B, RBI, BB), Yandy Díaz (9-21, 2B, RBI, BB), Wander Franco (4-13, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Brandon Lowe (4-16, 3 HR, 4 RBI), Manuel Margot (4-12, 2B, RBI, BB), Francisco Mejía (3-6, 3 RBI, BB), Harold Ramírez (1-1)
Zach Eflin threw 3.1 innings on March 20 while allowing four earned runs on seven hits against Atlanta. It clearly wasn’t an ideal outing from Eflin, and he has now allowed six earned runs across his last 7.1 innings of work during Spring Training. Yet, neither he nor manager Kevin Cash was concerned. In that outing, Eflin faced 16 batters and Cash noted improved durability on the bump. Overall, he put up a 4.04 ERA and a 3.56 FIP last season, with a 1.12 WHIP, and 4.33 K/BB in ’22.
Spencer Turnbull allowed three runs on six hits across three innings in a middle-of-March contest against the Phillies, as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery. He struck out four. Turnbull allowed just three total hits across his first two Spring starts, yet he was much more hittable during that contest. The right-hander looked whiffy in Spring Training, but take that with a grain of salt…you know, because it’s Spring Training. In 2021, his last healthy season, Turnbull put up a 2.88 ERA and a 2.95 FIP, with a 0.98 WHIP, and a 3.67 K/BB. He relies primarily on a 94 mph cutter that has good rise but little cutting action, a whiffy 94 mph sinker with little arm-side run, and an 86 mph slider that has short glove-side cut, while also mixing in an 88 mph changeup with arm-side fade, and a 79 mph curveball. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (1-2, BB), Harold Ramírez (3-5, HR, 2 RBI)
Jeffrey Springs had thrown 9.2 scoreless innings as of March 21, while maintaining a 16.0 K/BB in Grapefruit League action. Springs was initially brought along slowly during the exhibition season, although he worked 4.1 innings on the 21st. The left-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign a season ago, maintaining a 2.46 ERA and a 3.04 FIP, with a 1.07 WHIP, and a 4.65 K/BB across 135.1 frames. He held Le Tigre scoreless across six innings last season.
Joey Wentz earned a spot in the Tigers rotation because Michael Lorenzen (groin) is headed for a season-opening stint on the 15-day Injured List. Last season, Wentz put a good foot forward after delivering a 3.03 ERA across his first 32.2 big-league innings (seven starts). He posted 3.16 K/BB across 14.2 innings this spring, although he did allow four homers. Last season, Wentz maintained a 3.03 ERA and a 3.54 FIP, with a 1.10 WHIP, and a 2.08 K/BB. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph fourseam fastball and an 86 mph cutter with heavy sink, while also mixing in a 78 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and has slight glove-side movement and a firm 86 mph changeup with a fair amount of backspin. Key Matchup: Christian Bethancourt (2-2)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
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